GARINHARTYANG

RESEARCH GROUP
MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM: DATE: RE: House Majority PAC Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group July 24, 2012 Recent New York 1st CD Survey

1724 Connecticut Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20009 Tel: (202) 234-5570 Fax: (202) 232-8134 www.hartresearch.com

On July 17 and 18, 2012, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group conducted a survey among a representative sample of 407 likely general election voters (the margin of error is 4.9 percentage points) in New Yorks 1st CD. Our survey results indicate that in this rematch of Congressman Bishops razor-thin victory in 2010, the incumbent currently enjoys a sizeable lead over Randy Altschuler. And Congressman Bishop maintains his wide lead even after survey respondents are provided positive descriptions of BOTH candidates. When asked whom they would support in the initial trial heat for U.S. Congress, Congressman Bishop garners a strong majority of the vote and holds a significant lead over his opponent:
Initial Trial Heat
% Tim Bishop Randy Altschuler Undecided 56 32 12

One key factor in Bishops strong lead is the incumbents relatively solid image (45% positive, 27% negative), whereas his GOP challenger has a more polarizing image (25% positive, 24% negative). In fact, Congressman Bishops positive rating among independents is MORE than double that of Altschulers, and Bishops positive rating among Republicans is actually one point higher than Altschulers. Congressman Bishops support outpaces that of other Democrats on the ballot this November, and he runs far ahead of President Obama in this district (Obama 49%, Romney 44%). The depth of Congressman Bishops standing in the 1st CD is further evidenced after we present survey respondents with the following positive descriptions of the congressional candidates:

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Born and raised in the area, Congressman TIM BISHOP is the 12th generation of Bishops to live in Southampton. He served Southampton College for 29 years, leaving the position of provost in 2002 to make his first ever run for office, when he was elected to represent New York's First Congressional District. He has been re-elected to Congress four times. Bishop's priorities in Congress include fighting for middle-class families, improving access to higher education, defending retirement security for America's seniors, protecting the environment, and providing excellent constituent services. Through his work, Bishop has brought more than $130 million to the district for infrastructure and other related projects, and led the bipartisan effort to save the One Hundred and Sixth Air Rescue Wing from being shut down by the Pentagon's base closure commission. RANDY ALTSCHULER is the co-founder and chairman of CloudBlue, a leading provider of recycling services for electronic equipment with 16 facilities in the United States responsible for over 300 American jobs. Born and raised in New York City, an entrepreneur, Fulbright Scholar, and graduate of the Harvard Business School, Altschuler has made bringing jobs and tax relief to the district his top priority. His ten-point jobs plan for Long Island focuses on helping start-up companies grow, reforming the tax code, and eliminating burdensome business regulations. Altschuler was selected by Institutional Investor as one of the top influencers in the finance industry, and he is a member of the Smithtown Chamber of Commerce and an active participant with New Yorkers for Growth. Informed Trial Heat % Tim Bishop Randy Altschuler Undecided 57 35 8 Initial Trial Heat % 56 32 12

Tim Bishops wide lead in the initial trial heat does NOT appreciably change when voters are presented with information about the candidates. In fact, the incumbent improves his standing with independents and leads among that key group by better than two to one (64% Bishop, 29% Altschuler). While Altschuler gets more backing from Republicans, Bishop still garners 39% of that group. In summary, our survey findings show that Congressman Tim Bishop is well positioned to win his 2012 rematch against Randy Altschuler by a significant margin.