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Interested Parties Global Strategy Group Illinois 11th Congressional District 09.04.12

Biggert Vulnerable in Race for U.S. Congress

Longtime incumbent sits below the 50% Mark
After more than 30 years in politics, Judy Biggert is struggling to hold on to her seat in Congress, according to a recent survey of 401 likely voters in Illinois 11th Congressional District conducted by Global Strategy Group between August 27 and August 29, 2012. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 4.9%. Key findings include: Biggert sits well below the 50% mark: Judy Biggert sits well below the 50% mark, a real sign of vulnerability for incumbents. Biggert (43%) and her challenger, Bill Foster (42%), are locked in a dead heat with just 15% of voters still undecided at this time. Biggerts unfavorable ratings are two times higher than Fosters: At a time when Republicans in Congress are very unpopular, Biggerts own unfavorable ratings (29% unfavorable) are nearly twice as high as her challenger, Bill Fosters (15% unfavorable). This dynamic suggests Biggert may be forced to run a more negative campaign, a theory that is supported by the fact that she has already dropped negative mail against Foster. The partisan environment in the district favors Democrats: Voters in the district selfidentify as Democrats by a 7-point margin and a generic Democratic candidate for Congress leads a generic Republican candidate for Congress by 5 points, 46% to 41%. The top of the ticket is a drag on Biggert: While voters in the district view Mitt Romney unfavorably (net -7 points), Barack Obama receives a positive favorability rating (net +10 points) and leads the Presidential contest by 8 points.

The bottom line is this: After more than 3 decades in politics, Judy Biggerts political future is uncertain. The voters in Illinois 11th Congressional District are hesitant to re-elect the longtime incumbent and instead are looking toward scientist and businessman Bill Foster to represent them in Congress.

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