201

N Union Street, Suite 410 Alexandria, Virginia 22314 (703) 684-6688 (703) 836-8256 FAX dsackett@tarrance.com

THE TARRANCE GROUP

www.tarrance.com

MEMORANDUM
TO:

FRIENDS OF NAN HAYWORTH COMMITTEE NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE

DAVE SACKETT

FROM: RE:

A SURVEY OF VOTER ATTITUDES IN NEW YORKS 18TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

DATE:

AUGUST 30, 2012 ________________________________________________________________________ The Tarrance Group is pleased to present Friends of Nan Hayworth Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee with the key findings from a survey of voter attitudes in New Yorks 18th Congressional District. These key findings are based on telephone interviews with N=408 likely registered voters throughout the 18th district. Responses to this survey were gathered August 26-28, 2012 and the margin of error associated with a sample of this type is + 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. KEY FINDINGS Congresswoman Nan Hayworth stands with fifty-one percent (51%) of the vote and a +9 point lead over her Democrat opponent on the ballot for Congress. Maloney receives 42% of the vote, and seven percent (7%) of district voters are undecided. Hayworth demonstrates solid partisan intensity among Republicans, and is in a very strong position among Independent voters, where she captures fifty-two percent (52%) of the vote and leads Maloney by +13 points. Just as important, Hayworth is doing very well among all of the key battleground voter groups in the district, and she leads her Democrat opponent on the ballot test among both women and 18-34 year old voters. Congresswoman Hayworth has done an excellent job of consolidating her position among voters in the new portion of the district. Her name ID is now up at 89% across the entire new district, and she stands with a better than 50% favorable rating and job approval rating.

The Tarrance Group New York CD 18 (August, 2012)

Page 1

 The political environment of the district is also favorable to Hayworth and Republicans. A majority of voters in the district, fifty percent (50%), indicate that they disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing, and Romney has a +3 point lead over President Obama on the trial ballot test for President. In addition, Republicans also have a +4 point lead over the Democrats on the generic ballot for Congress. ###

The Tarrance Group New York CD 18 (August, 2012)

Page 2