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The Real Deals (20-09-2012)
The Real Deals (20-09-2012)
Singapore
THEREALDEALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate
In loop with Thomson Line
Singapores sixth MRT line, Thomson Line, will officially commence operations from 2019 onwards. 22 stations have been finalised, including six interchange stations Woodlands, Caldecott, Stevens, Orchard, Outram Park, and Marina Bay. It will open in three phases: Phase One with three stations from Woodlands North to Woodlands South; Phase Two, with six stations from Springleaf to Caldecott and the last phase will be the final stretch with 13 stations from Mount Pleasant to Gardens by the Bay. It will acquire a few landed properties along Stevens Road and Upper Thomson Road, and Pearls Centre at Outram Park. Affected parties will be compensated via the SGD18b budget set aside to build the line. We highlight six stations where the impact on private residential projects will be most apparent this includes Lentor, Sin Ming, Upper Thomson, Mount Pleasant, Stevens, and Great World. Stations such as Mayflower and Maxwell are more concentrated with public housing and older or landed estates, which could create enbloc opportunities in the future. Stations such as Woodlands North, Woodlands South, Springleaf and Mount Pleasant are built on sparser land plots, and will lay the groundwork for future residential areas.
Figure 1: Thomson Line phases Phase Section Woodlands North- Woodlands South Springleaf Caldecott Caldecott Mount Pleasant Gardens by the Bay
Source: SMRT website
20 September 2012
Stations 3 6 13
Rental psf
N/A
2.9
N/A N/A
Sin Ming - Phase 2 - District 20 Sin Ming Station will be situated at the more neglected side of Bishan. Sky Habitat has set record-high prices with ASP of SGD1,608 psf on a 99yr leasehold. We see older condos directly opposite from the station to see the most value-added. For example, The Gardens at Bishan and Faber Garden Condo will likely see prices breach SGD1,000psf. ASP No. (YTD) units Project Tenure Bishan Park Condo 99 Yr fm 1991 714 45 Bishan Point 99 yr fm 1997 782 54 Country Grandeur Freehold 847 19 Faber Garden Condo Freehold 838 5 Fulton Hills Freehold 836 14 The Gardens at Bishan 99 yr fm 1997 822 214 The Inglewood Freehold 895 5 Thomson Grand 99 yr fm 2010 1,242 301 Upper Thomson Phase 2 District 20 Upper Thomson is one of the most anticipated stations. The latest news in the area is the Bright Hill Drive site, released this August. HDB has awarded United Venture Development, a joint venture between Singapore Land and UOL, a 99-year leasehold plot for SGD291.5m. The site is expected to yield 405 units, with an estimated land and breakeven price of SGD720psf ppr and SGD1,110psf respectively. In the surrounding area, older estates are largely freehold projects such as 3BHC, Centurion 12, Grandioso 8, and Thomson Park. The newest project is Macly Groups Thomson V Two, a freehold project comprising 122 units expected to TOP this year. Subsale transactions have reached SGD1,454psf compared to launch prices of SGD900psf. Its sister project, 99-year leasehold Thomson V One, was granted TOP in 2007. Latest transaction prices have reached SGD1,204psf compared to average launch prices of SGD750psf.
Source: SMRT media release, URA
20 September 2012
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SIX STATIONS
Figure 3 contd- Map
(4-6) CONTD
Description Mount Pleasant Phase 3 District 11 Situated in the middle of the Old Police Academy, the station will be right next to the PIE. Just across the highway are clusters of landed estates and several upand-coming boutique developments. Last year, Whitley Heights received an enbloc offer for SGD159m or SGD1,222psf from Hoi Hup Realty. It was the largest freehold plot in the prime central district in excess of 100,000 sq ft zoned for mixed-use development. Another site at Whitley, Villa Des Flores, a 41-unit condo now up for enbloc sale, is asking for SGD160-165m, or SGD1,533-1,581psf. The site can be used for a mixed development. It will likely be hotly contested by small developers as it lies in the Central Region, and will not be subjected to the latest clampdowns on shoebox dwellings.
Stevens Phase 3 District 10 Already an MRT stop for the upcoming Downtown Line, Stevens road residential area may have already priced in a MRT premium. Last year, Sing Holdings proceeded with an enbloc combining Robin Court, Robin Star, and One Robin, for a total of SGD176.3m, or SGD1,302psf. Projects to be completed include Loft@Stevens, White House Residences, The Glyndebourne, and Cyan. Project Loft @ Stevens The Glyndebourne Stevens Suites Completed projects The Element @ Stevens Parc Stevens TOP Incomplete Incomplete Incomplete TOP 2007 2000 Launch ASP (SGD) 1,920 1,980 1,907 Latest ASP 1,415 1,722
Great World Phase 3 District 9-10 River Valley probably has the greatest concentration of private residential properties. However, contrary to widespread belief, it is actually slightly difficult in terms of transportation accessibility despite being walking distance to Orchard Road. Great World City will enjoy a boost in consumer footprint, which will likely firm up selling prices in the vicinity. A few of the failed enbloc projects may have another go, as the new station would enhance property values. Past projects launched for enbloc Project Tenure ASP* Pacific Mansion Freehold 1,432 Horizon Tower 99 Yr fm 1979 1,209 Rivershire Freehold 1,645 *Year-to-date ASP
20 September 2012
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RESALE TRANSACTIONS
Figure 4: Lentor
Castle Green Chip Thye Gardens The Calrose Nuovo Seasons Park Thomson Grove 1,600 1100 1000 900 800 700 800 600 500 400 Jul-09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 600 400 Jul-09 1,400 1,200 1,000
1200
Jan-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Figure 8: Stevens
Loft @ Stevens Stevens Suites The Glyndebourne 2500 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 Sep-08 Jan-10 Jun-11 Parc Stevens The Element @ Stevens
20 September 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
Property Price Indices
Index SRPI Overall (Jul 12) URA PPI (2Q12) HDB Resale (2Q12) Level 166.4 206.9 194.0 Change -1.1% +0.4% +1.3% Reserve List
20 September 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Site Jalan Jurong Kechil Stirling Road Tampines Av 10 (Parcel B) Kim Tian Road
Site area (Ha) 1.0 2.1 1.7 0.6 1.7 0.9 2.3 1.6 1.9 2.7
Units 240 1045 515 500 na 495 680 470 600 595
Status Available Available Available Available Available Avail. in Sept Avail. in Oct Avail. in Oct Avail. in Nov Avail. in Dec
Sengkang West Way Alexandra Road/ Alexandra View (Parcel B) Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel C) Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel D) Jurong West Street 41/ Boon Lay Way (Parcel B) New Upper Changi Road / Bedok South Avenue 3 (Parcel B)
Collective sales
Pending for offer
Site Kovan Lodge Shan Gate Land Area(k Sqm) 3.6 4.8 Land Price (S$m) 31 52-54 $psf ppr 802 10101049 Land price (S$m) 77.5 590 192 92.2 132 106 74 Tender closes Sept 25 Sept 18
Successful en-blocs
Site Westvale Thomson View Green Lodge Chateau Eliza Novena Ville Jade Towers Bartley Grove Awarded to Roxy Pacific Private Investor Private investor Newfort Realty Fragrance Group Roxy Pacific Top Global Land area(k sqm) 5.8 50.2 14.0 4.9 4.7 8.6 6.1 $psf ppr 883 712 907 1,743 1730 807 810
Confirmed List
Site Woodlands Avenue 6/ Woodlands Drive 16 (EC) New Upper Changi Road/ Bedok Road (Parcel A) Sengkang West Way/ Fernvale Link (Parcel B) (EC) Pasir Ris Drive 3/ Pasir Ris Rise (EC) Site area (Ha) 1.7 3.2 1.4 2.8 1.1 2.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.2 Est. Launch Units date 465 540 420 590 645 650 435 680 825 700 Aug-12 Aug-12 Sept-12 Sept-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
Property Stocks
Company Price RNAV CapitaLand 3.13 5.03 City Developments 11.47 12.62 -9% Guocoland 2.02 NA NA Ho Bee 1.42 2.98 -52% Keppel land 3.52 5.78 -39% OUE 2.84 NA NA SC Global 1.16 3.71 -69% Singapore Land 6.87 9.71 -29% UIC 2.78 NA NA UOL 5.7 NA NA Wheelock Properties 1.87 NA NA Wing Tai 1.615 2.81 -43% N.A. = No Coverage *As at latest reported Disc to RNAV -38% NAV /share 3.66 7.66 2.15 2.34 3.81 3.53 1.56 11.78 3.16 6.49 2.35 2.51 Disc/ Prem to NAV -14% 50% -6% -39% -8% -20% -26% -42% -12% -12% -20% -36%
Bishan Street 14 Sembawang Crescent/ Sembawang Drive (EC) Punggol Field Walk/ Punggol East (EC) Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2/ Ang Mo Kio Street 13 Jurong West Street 41/ Boon Lay Way (Parcel A) Commonwealth Avenue Source: HDB, URA
20 September 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Takeup rate (%) 40.4% 56.2% 39.6% 38.6% 95.2% 7.1% 50.8% 30.6% 71.6% 99.4% 34.3% 74.3% 82.4% 100% 97.0% 98.6% 85.5% 92.9% 63.4% 74.8% 87.6% 75.7% 89.6% 56.0% 78.1% 65.4% 83.0% 65.6% 84.3% 70.3% 65.4% 83.2% 56.7% 89.2% 97.0% 83.6% 99.0% 96.2% 53.1% 97.5% 88.6% 57.5% 95.2% 40.9% 54.8% 62.7%
Units sold (Aug)
Media n
20 September 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Secondary Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf Jul12 1,462 1,708 1,298 1,030 1,051 799 923 838 774 $psf Aug12 1,525 1,751 1,279 1,074 1,069 809 939 861 785 MoM % change 4.3 2.5 -1.5 4.2 1.7 1.3 1.7 2.7 1.5
($psf) 2019 1458 1384 2825 1975 1970 2022 1516 1858 1532 1283 1307 1117 1193 1055 1269 1313 1093 870 926 878 815 885 705 1159 1246 843 857 911 1068 886 907 1543 896 722 1292 580 1484 1115 699 1308 1450 706 704 1404 1203
City & Southwest (1-8) V on Shenton 510 206 Seahill 454 255 Cityscape @ Farrer 250 99 Orchard/Tanglin/Holland (9-10) Up@ Robertson Quay 70 27 The Mkz 42 40 Leedon Residence 381 27 Stellar RV 120 61 DLeedon 1715 525 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) 8 Bassein 74 53 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) 154 153 One Dusun Residences Eight Riversuites 862 296 M66 70 52 Riviera 38 102 84 Silverscape 45 45 Vacanza @ East 473 459 Idyllic Suites 71 70 East Coast (15-16) Flamingo Valley 393 336 Archipelago 577 536 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) Parc Olympia 486 308 Palm Isles 429 321 The Palette 892 781 The Tampines Trilliant 670 507 Sea Esta 376 337 Watercolours 416 233 My Manhattan 301 235 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Bartley Residences 702 459 Flo Residences 530 440 River Isles 610 400 Parc Centros 618 521 The Luxurie Riversound Residence Boathouse Residences
Haus@Serangoon Garden
65 13 23 11 10 27 21 8 10 153 47 15 15 11 9 9 16 51 110 10 37 33 30 17 16 70 62 55 32 18 14 14 12 12 11 10 9 9 23 19 14 9 23 20 17 26
Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Jun12 5.1 4.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.6 $psf pm Jul12 4.7 4.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.7 MoM % Change -8.0 0.3 4.0 3.0 1.8 -12.6 6.8 3.9 3.3
Parc Vera Austville Residences Bliss@Kovan Twin Waterfalls Watertown West (22-24) Hillsta Blossom Residences Natura@Hillview The Lanai North (25-28) Parc Rosewood 1 Canberra Metro Loft Seletar Park Residence Source: URA
622 590 493 97 452 540 140 728 992 416 602 193 214 689 665 31 276
437 386 410 55 403 524 117 721 954 221 587 171 123 656 272 17 173
20 September 2012
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DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 1 3 6 9 9 10 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 23 Sentosa Landbank
20 September 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 20 560 118 122 43 203 178 156 4 116 111 624 912 605 131 243 785 42 15 207 5,195
City Dev
One Shenton (Marina Bay) Alexandra Road GLS site (Alexandra Road) South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Up @ Robertson Quay (Robertson Quay) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Nouvel 18 (Anderson Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) The Palette (Pasir Ris) NV Residences (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Drive 8 (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North (Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North) H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley Road) Haus @ Serangoon Garden (Serangoon Garden Way) Blossom Residences (EC) (Segar Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) 15, 19 & 21 Swiss Road (Swiss Club Road) Total Unsold Units Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 6 (Keppel Bay) The Luxurie (Sengkang Square) Total Unsold Units The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Orchard Residences (Orchard Road) Wharf Residence (Tong Watt Road) D'Leedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences (Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units
KepLand
1 2 4 4 4 4 19
46 590 269 367 234 94 185 1,785 304 39 13 5 1,190 55 150 61 378 140 2,335 110 357 3 470
CapitaLand
3 9 9 9 10 10 15 16 20 26
99Yr Freehold 99Yr 999Yr 99Yr Freehold Freehold 99Yr 99Yr Freehold
Ho Bee
Sentosa Sentosa 11
Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Trilight (Newton Road) Total Unsold Units
UOL
2 16 19
Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bright Hill Drive (Bright Hill) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) The Surrento (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) Holland Residences (Taman Warna) Riverbay (Mar Thorma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thorma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Pavilion Park (Phase 1D) (Bukit Batok Road) Pavilion Park (Phase 2) (Bukit Batok Road) Total Unsold Units Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units
Allgreen
2 5 9 10 12 12 21 23 23
Wheelock
9 10
Freehold Freehold
20 September 2012
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20 September 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 500 2 354 76 13 945 57 44 24 88 221 80 232 68 814 249 57 16 595 73 108 83 38 7 41 1,267 5 64 38 42 157 22 241 156 725 32 70 65 23 90 590 870 34 197 21 35 31 318
Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah / Choon Guan) Sophia Residence (Mount Sophia) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) Goodwood Residence (Bukit Timah Road) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units
Bt Sembawang
4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28
Frasers Centrepoint
9 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 27
Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bedok South GLS site (Bedok South Avenue 3) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Watertown (Punggol) Twin Waterfalls (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Nouvel 18 (Anderson Road) Total Unsold Units
99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr
Wing Tai
3 9 9 10 10 11 23 10
MCL Land
11 10 15 16 17 22
Palms @ Sixth Avenue (Six Avenue ) NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Uber 388 (Upper East Cost) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Boon Lay (Jurong East) Total Unsold Units
SC Global
9 9 9 9 Sentosa
The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) Sculptura Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units
16166
20 September 2012
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20 September 2012
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Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Singapore: As of 20 September 2012, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. As of 20 September 2012, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analysts compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. Reminder Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
20 September 2012
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