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To: Fr: Date: Re:

Interested Parties Peter Brodnitz October 18, 2012 Recent Polling Results

The results of our recent poll of likely general election voters in Hawaii show that Congresswoman Mazie Hirono continues to hold a sizeable 18-point lead over former Governor Linda Lingle and comfortably receives over 50% of the vote. BSG polling accurately predicted Mazie Hironos 17% victory margin over Ed Case in the Democratic Primary. Hirono Continues to Hold Double-Digit Lead In the race for U.S. Senate, Hirono leads Lingle by 18%. Hirono receives a majority of the vote (56%), while Lingle receives 38%, and 6%. Hirono has more definite supporters (42%) than Lingle has total supporters (38%). The race remains exactly where it was when we polled in September.

If the November general election for Senate were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATED) Democrat Mazie Hirono and Republican Linda Lingle, for whom would you vote? (If dont know) Which candidate do you lean toward?
June 2012
Difference Democrat Mazie Hirono Republican Linda Lingle Other (vol.) Dont Know Difference Democrat Mazie Hirono w/leaners Republican Linda Lingle w/leaners Other w/leaners Dont Know w/leaners

+11
51 40 2 7

September October 2012 2012

+17
54 37 1 9

+17
54 37 0 9

+12 53 41 2 4

+18 56 38 1 5

+18 56 38 0 6

Hironos Favorability Is Higher Than LinglesAnd Growing By a nearly 2-to-1 margin, voters hold favorable views of Hirono (62% favorable, 33% unfavorable). On the other hand, nearly as many voters hold negative views of Lingle (47%) as hold positive views (49%). The trend favors Hirono: her net favorability increased by 8% since September, while Lingles net favorability declined by 2% in the same time period.

[INSERT NAME] Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable view?
Favorable/Unfavorable Net Fav Mazie Hirono 62/33 +29 Linda Lingle 49/47 +2

(Oct 2012 Sept 2012)

+8

-2

October 8th Debate Made More Voters Likely to Vote For Hirono We fielded this poll right after the KHON candidate debate, which was televised statewide. Lingle failed to make significant progress in the wake of the debate, and just 38% of voters who saw the debate said it made them more likely to vote for Lingle, whereas 41% said it made them more likely to vote for Hirono, and 22% said it had no impact (which is a win for Hirono since she holds a lead on the ballot and Lingle is the one who needs to gain ground). (Asked of those who say they saw or heard the debate) Did what you saw in the debate or have heard about it make you much more likely to vote for Hirono, somewhat more likely to vote for Hirono, somewhat more likely to vote for Lingle, or much more likely to vote for Lingle?
All

Difference
Much/Somewhat More Likely to Vote for Hirono Much/Somewhat More Likely to Vote for Lingle No Difference/Dont Know Voters Believe Lingle Would Help The Republicans Gain a Majority in the Senate

+3
41 38 22

By more than 2-to-1, voters are more likely to believe that Lingle would be a vote for the Republican agenda in Washington than think she will be Independent. These numbers have not changed since our poll in September.

Which of the following better describes Linda Lingle?

All

Difference
If elected, she will be a vote for the Republican agenda in Washington. If elected, she will be independent of the Republican Party in Washington Dont Know

+31
60 29 11

This memo covers the results of our research: 500 interviews with likely 2012 general election voters in Hawaii. All participants were registered to vote, had voted in the 2008 or 2010 general election or registered after the 2010 election, and were screened to ensure they are likely to vote in the 2012 election. The interviews were conducted October 9-11, 2012, with live callers. The margin of error is 4.4%. BSGs clients include President Barack Obama, Governor Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Jeff Merkley (OR), Jim Webb (VA), and Chris Coons (DE); Congressman Tim Walz (WA), and President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia. Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named Pollster of the Year by the American Association of Political Consultants in 2007 for his work helping turn Virginia from Red to Purple. BSGs final poll of the 2012 Democratic primary election accurately predicted a 17-point Hirono victory.

Hirono for U.S. Senate