July 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

July 2009
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Real Estate Market Report
August 9, 2009
provided courtesy of
and Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker,

Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors
August 8, 2009
HOMESALESREPORT
Harrisonburg&RockinghamCounty August8,2009
#H S l
#HomeSales 2008 2009 % Ch
%Change
576
Julyź 95 94 Ͳ1.05% 454
YearToDateź 576 454 Ͳ21.18%

2008 2009

d 1
MedianSalesPrice 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
2008 2009 %Change $194k
$188k

Julyź $204,900 $185,000 Ͳ9.71%
YearToDateź $199,350 $188,650 Ͳ5.37%
2008 2009
AverageSalesPrice 2008 2009 %Change $224k $231k
Julyź $227,276 $221,045 Ͳ2.74%

YearToDateź $223,306 $221,642 Ͳ0.75%
2008 2009
AverageDaysonMarket
190
2008 2009 %Change 157
JulyŸ 171 195 14.04%

YearToDateŸ 162 190 17.28%
2008 2009
While the overall pace of home sales is still significantly slower in 2009 than in of 2009. While activity has picked up in July (as compared to the first six months
2008 (a 21% decline), home sales this July (94) were down only 1% as compared of the year), the median and average sales price have both declined (5% and 1%
to last July (95). This could be an early sign of stabilization of our real estate year over year). Also, as has become the norm, it takes longer this year to sell a
market, if the number of home sales can stay on pace with 2008 for the balance home (average of 195 days) as compared to last year (average of 171 days).
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors. Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
August 8, 2009

Harrisonburg&RockinghamCounty
MonthͲByͲMonthHomeSalesHistory
200 2005
2006
2007
175 2008
2009
150
&CondoSales
125
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
SingleFamilyy,Townhome&
100
94
86
75
75
50 57
53 51
1
37
25
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Earlier this year we saw February sales exceed the same month sales from 2008 County real estate markets. We have seen several years of 20% - 25% year over
--- and we have seen this again in July, or nearly so. The remainder of 2009 year declines in sales pace, and I am hopeful that 2009 will be the year that we
will be telling --- if we can continue to stay on pace with or exceed home sales break out of that pattern of declining sales. An increased pace of home sales will
from 2008, it may be a sign of stabilization in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham likely result in a stabilization and eventual increase of sales prices.
August 8, 2009

TimeͲAdjustedHomeSalesTrends::AllHomes
SumofPreceding12Months
1,800
1,600
1,400
1 400
1,200
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
JanͲ04 JanͲ05 JanͲ06 JanͲ07 JanͲ08 JanͲ09
This graph shows the running sum of 12 month home sales totals. That is to say a only a few periods of leveling off or increasing. We saw a possible rebound in
that the July 2009 figure includes home sales from August 2008 - July 2009, and late 2008, early 2009, but it only lasted a few short months. We may be seeing the
the value in the graph for each month previous also shows a 12 month total. We beginning of that rebound again this month, as the 12-month sum stayed at the
can see, thus, that the number of home sales has been declining since 2006, with same level this month as we saw last month.
August 8, 2009

HomeSales&PriceTrends
SingleFamilyHomes&Townhomes
1,800 $250,000
1,669
+11%
1,600
$195,500
$195,100
Ͳ14%
1,507
$188,650
+14% 1,438 +1% +0.2%
$200,000
1 400
1,400
$
1,324
Ͳ13%
$192,983
+15% 1,248
+14%
1,200 1,153
+8%
9,900
1,071 Ͳ25%
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
+14% $150 000
$150,000
$169
1,000
$149,000
+29% 936
+17%
829
Ͳ0.3% +4%
800 $127,700
$122,,900
$122,,588
+6%
00
$116,00
$100,000
600
454
400
$50,000
200
0 $0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The yellow bars in this graph show the total number of single family homes and small changes that we have seen in median sales prices (shown by the blue line)
townhome sales for each of the last nine years. Last year, 2008, marked a return during that same time period. The number of home sales declined 44% between
to a sales pace just above 2000. We will likely see yet another decline this year, 2005 and 2008, but the median sales price increased a remarkable 15% during
as compared to 2008. This sharp decline (since 2005) is in contrast to the very those same years.
August 8, 2009

SingleFamilyHomes
1,200 $275,000
$226,800
0
$223,575
$215,000
1,024 n/a 1,025
$206,000
Ͳ11% Ͳ1%
Ͳ4%
1,000 $225,000
+16%
+8%
8% 909
868 +3% 880
$210,000
Ͳ2% 851 Ͳ12%
+24% 798
800 $175,000
+29%
Ͳ18%
00
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$170,00
674
+16% 654
+8%
$147,000
+2%
600 $125,000
$136,000
133,239
+9%
$122,850
$1
400 $75,000
308
200 $25,000
0 Ͳ$25,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
While the overall market showed a dramatic decline in sales pace over the last median sales price of single family homes has decreased a total of 9% since 2006,
five years, the single family home market didn’t decrease in sales pace as quickly. though that has been in very small increments, and a good portion of that decline
That being said, median home values have increased more significantly when between 2008 and 2009. We may yet see a shift in the overall median sales price
looking solely at detached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The in 2009, which would soften the blow of slightly declining home values.
August 8, 2009

Townhomes
700
50
$167,25
$163,800
644
$162,450
$160,850
$180,000
+2%
600 +2%
$160,000
+33% +19%
529
500 483 $140,000

Ͳ18% Ͳ15%
444 450
34,950
d 1 3,100
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$103 +9% +14% $120,000
+47%
$13
$94,600
400
$118,500
$89,000
+10%
+5% $100,000
$108,200
Ͳ37%
+9%
302
300 +6% 282
$80 000
$80,000
+49%
203 $60,000
200
+31%
155
146
$40,000
100
$20,000
0 $0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Between 2000 and 2005, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market however, sales have declined again at least to pre-2002 levels. The saving grace
witnessed a dramatic increase in the number of townhome sales, many of which of this segment of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market
were built as new townhomes during that time period. In fact, there was a 315% is that median sale prices have remained stable, with repeating year-over-year
increase in this segment of the market between 2000 and 2005. Since that time, increases every year since 2000, with the possible exception of 2008 to 2009.
August 8, 2009

InventoryLevels
1200
1000
951 945 944 932 928 932
909 904
888
866
8
828 838
794
800
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
600
400
200
0
JulͲ08 AugͲ08 SepͲ08 OctͲ08 NovͲ08 DecͲ08 JanͲ09 FebͲ09 MarͲ09 AprͲ09 MayͲ09 JunͲ09 JulͲ09
This graph shows a 13-month history of the inventory of available single family returning to a greater degree of balance between buyers and sellers. Buyers should
homes, townhomes and condos in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. July be aware that inventory will likely continue to decline through the remainder of
2009’s inventory level of 904 is a 5% decline from July 2008’s inventory level of 2009, as we head into the winter months -- this will limit buyers’ options to some
951. This modest reduction of inventory is a sign of our local market, hopefully, extent, until we get to February 2010.
August 8, 2009

HousingSupplyTrendsbyPriceRange
$0Ͳ $200k $200kͲ $300k $300kͲ $400k 400k+
30
28
27
26
25 25 25 25
24 25
24 24
23
22
22
20
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
16 16
15 16
15 15 15 15
15 15 15
14 13 14 14
13 13
12
11 12 12 12
11 11
10 10 10 10
10
8 9
8 8 8 8
7 8 8
0
JulͲ08 AugͲ08 SepͲ08 OctͲ08 NovͲ08 DecͲ08 JanͲ09 FebͲ09 MarͲ09 AprͲ09 MayͲ09 JunͲ09 JulͲ09
Supply levels as reflected in this graph are determined by dividing current upon the price segment of the market that we examine. Higher end of homes
inventory levels by the average number of homes sold per month over the past ($400k+) still show over a two year supply --- which also means a staggering
12 months. Months of supply is broken down between price ranges, as there is a number of choices for buyers. In contrast, the more affordable segment of our
significant variation of the amount of housing supply that is available dependent market (under $200k) only offers 10 months of housing supply.
August 8, 2009

MedianPricePerSquareFootTrends
SingleFamilyHomes
$150.00
$131
$130
$129
$128
$127
$126
$126
$126
$125
$125
$123
$121
$120
$119
$118
$125.00
$116
$115
$113
$
$105
$105
$99
$96
$100.00
$92
$90
$87
$86
84
83
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$82
2
$8
$8
$80
$79
$78
$77
$76
$76
$74
$73
$73
$73
$75.00
$50.00
$25.00
$0.00
2000ͲQ1 2001ͲQ1 2002ͲQ1 2003ͲQ1 2004ͲQ1 2005ͲQ1 2006ͲQ1 2007ͲQ1 2008ͲQ1 2009ͲQ1
Median price per square foot, as shown in this graph, is calculated only on single a staggering 52% increase between 2003 and 2006. Perhaps this is why we have
family homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. While the median now seen an 8% decline between 2006 and 2009 --- resulting in an overall increase
price per square foot rose between 2000 and 2006, the rate at which it did so of 53%, or 17.5% for each of three year period. Median price per square foot
has varied significantly. Our market saw a 9% increase between 2000 and 2003, has generally risen over the past year, which may indicate a new market trend.
August 8, 2009

MedianPricePerSquareFootbySalesPrice
SingleFamilyHomes
0Ͳ 1,499SF 1,500Ͳ 2,500SF 2,500+SF
150
$140
140 $138
$
$133
130 $128
$123 $123 $123
120 $122 $116 $117

d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$113 $119
$115
110
$105
$106 $105
100
$93 $94
$89
90
$84 $92
$84
80 $77 $77 $83

$74
$71
70
$71 $72
$68
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
There are some base costs in a home (land, water, sewer, etc) that do significantly square foot). It is also interesting to see how these median values trend over time.
vary from small home (less than 1,500 s.f.) to large home (greater than 2,500 s.f.). Both small and large homes have shown a decline in median price per square foot
Thus, the median price per square foot varies significantly between these smaller over the past year, while the median price per square foot of mid-sized homes
homes (median of $128 per square foot) and larger homes (median of $105 per (1,500 - 2,500 s.f.) has increased.
August 8, 2009

LotSales&MedianPrices
lessthan1acre
450 $120,000
408
$99,900
400
$100,000
350
$76,500
304
$70,000
300 $80,000
d 1
261
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$58,300
247
250
$54,500
$60,000
201
200
$42,,000
$36,900
165
$32,208
$30,500
150 $40,000
$26,000
111
100 85
74
$20,000
50
19
0 $0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Lot sales of less than one acre have declined dramatically since their peak of 408 2006, but then showed a sharp decline between 2006 and 2008. The increase in
sales in 2004. In fact, in the first seven months of 2009 only 19 sales have taken median lot sales price shown between 2008 and 2009 may be a result of the small
place (2.7 sales per month), as compared to a staggering 34 sales per month in sample size of only 19 lot sales in 2009. As the year continues we will hopefully
2004. Of interest, lot prices increased steadily (and then drastically) through have fuller data from which to extrapolate potential value changes.
August 8, 2009

LandSales&MedianPrices
1acreormore
180 $180,000
00
168
$155,00
$149,900
160 $160,000
140 $140,000
$140 000
$120,000
0
120 $120,000
99,450
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
107
$9
$85,000
100 $100,000
$79,500
87
83
80 76 77 $80,000
50
$58,75
$54,250
$52,500
58
60 $60,000
53
42
40 $40,000
$39,500
21
20 $20,000
0 $0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
With a few exceptions (2001, 2004, 2005), the number of land sales with at least these land transactions. The sharp increase in median sales price for land sales
one acre has remained relatively steady over the years, varying from 53 to 87. over the past year may be a sign of a remarkably recovered market, or just an
Land sales in 2009 are likely to be a bit lower than this normal range, but not anomaly based on small sample size of only 21 land sales thus far in 2009.
dramatically so. However, we do see dramatic shifts in the median sales price of
August 8, 2009

NewConstructionSingleFamilyHomeSalesTrends
NumberofSales,MedianPricePerSquareFoot
200
186
180 200
158
160
140 139
$144
138 137
140
$139
150
$150
121
146
d 1
120 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$1
109
$133
100
$114
89
100
105
$1
9
$99
80
$94
$87
60
38 50
40
20
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The median price per square foot of single family homes sold in the third quarter and new homes, those in excellent condition, as well as those in need of repairs.
of 2009 in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is $118, in contrast to the Also, the new construction median of $139 includes data from small single family
median price per square foot of $139 for all new construction homes sold in 2009. homes as well as enormous newly built homes -- thus new construction price per
This gap is to be expected, as the overall median in the market reflects both old square foot will vary from $139 based on the size of the home.
August 8, 2009

DaysonMarketAnalysis
ResidentialListingsSoldFeb'09Ͳ July'09
<2years
2
0%
1Ͳ 2years
46
11%
0Ͳ 3months
9Ͳ 12months 131
48 32%
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
12%
2%
6Ͳ 9months
71
17%
3Ͳ 6months
118
28%
While there is a 10 month to 25 month supply of homes on the market (depending and only 11% of the homes that have sold have taken longer than a year to do
on the price range), the homes that are actually selling are doing so much more so. Also, a remarkable one-third (32%) of all homes that have recently sold (in
quickly than those figures would suggest. Over half (60%) of the homes sold the past six months) sold within three months. As defined in this graph, “sold”
in the past six months (February 2009 - July 2009) have sold in 180 days or less, is the time from listing to closing.
August 8, 2009

DaysonMarketAnalysisbyPriceRange
February2009Ͳ July2009
0Ͳ3Months 3Ͳ 6Months 6Ͳ 9Months 9Ͳ 12Months 1Ͳ 2Years 2+Years
AllHomes 31% 28% 17% 12% 11%
Under$200k 37% 26% 15% 14% 7%

d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$200kͲ $300k 27% 33% 19% 5% 14% 2%
$300kͲ $400k 13% 38% 28% 8% 13%
$400kandup 28% 17% 11% 19% 25%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
The speed at which homes sell depends, to some extent, on their price. For sold over $400k took more than a year to sell, whereas only 7% of homes under
example, 63% of homes that sold under $200k went from a listing to a closing in $200k took that length of time. If a seller prices their home appropriately and
less than 180 days, but only 45% of those homes priced above $400k were able competitively, the data reflected on this graph will be a much better guide as to
to match that speed. And, as we would perhaps expect, a full 25% of homes that the time on the market, as compared to the graph showing months of supply.

July 2009 Harrisonburg &amp; Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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July 2009 Harrisonburg &amp; Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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July 2009

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

and Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker,

Julyź 95 94 Ͳ1.05% 454

YearToDateź 576 454 Ͳ21.18%

AverageSalesPrice 2008 2009 %Change $224k $231k

Julyź $227,276 $221,045 Ͳ2.74%

JulyŸ 171 195 14.04%

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

500 483 $140,000

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

120 $122 $116 $117

80 $77 $77 $83

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

AllHomes 31% 28% 17% 12% 11%

Under$200k 37% 26% 15% 14% 7%

$200kͲ $300k 27% 33% 19% 5% 14% 2%

$300kͲ $400k 13% 38% 28% 8% 13%

$400kandup 28% 17% 11% 19% 25%

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July 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

July 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report