New Media Life Cycle Analysis™

August 12, 2009

Analysts: Andrew M. Davis, Brad Schwarzenbach, Jason Tarre

Qik.com
Channel Overview

Qik.com: Live Mobile Streaming Leader

Broad Mobile
Support
Qik.com is supported on
about one hundred and thirty
mobile phones.

As one of the first credible

providers in the mobile video
streaming space, support for a
wide variety of phones has
Blurry video !om one of the thousands of low-quality videos to be found on helped push its tremendous
Qik.com growth.

In late 2007, Qik.com was the first live mobile streaming specific With the release of the
channel when they launched their public beta. iPhone 3Gs, the platform has
created and launched an
Found at Qik.com (sounds like quick), their live mobile streaming iPhone app designed to share
platform allows users to “share your moments live with your friends, stored videos on Qik.com, but
family and the world - right from your mobile phone.” the app also integrates
promoting those videos on
Using any one of the 130 mobile phones supported by Qik.com, any Facebook and Twitter.
user can capture and stream video live to the web.
For the current audience, an
Every month, about one hundred and fifty thousand people in over one application on the iPhone is a
hundred countries are streaming live video to Qik.com. ■ perfect fit.■

TIPPINGPOINT LABS 1.
New Media Life Cycle Analysis™ August 12, 2009

Recommendations

Experiment, Wait and See, or Start with Live Streaming

At this early stage in its life cycle, we Our Pick: Start with Live Streaming
recommend marketers experiment with caution
and only if their audience is already
participating on Qik.com or they have content
concepts that may elevate the quality of the
content on the platform overall.

Experiment
A brand allocating less than five percent of their
new media resources to developing expertise in
the live mobile video streaming channel is at
minimal risk. At this point, early
experimentation will have little (or minimal)
affect on the brand perception unless the quality
of the content is better than the current content
found at Qik. Brands participating early in the
live mobile video streaming space might garner
mass media attention if they are able to generate At this time, we recommend starting with a live
interest outside of the channel’s early adopters. video streaming channel and working hard to
create compelling content that requires you to
Wait and See BE live. This is not easy, but much easier than
The live mobile video streaming medium is very trying to create compelling mobile video
young and is devoid of a strong content base. A streaming content. If you believe you may be
brand that monitors the growth in the creation able to leverage mobile video streaming after
of quality content and more diverse traffic can creating quality live programming, UStream.tv is
enter later with a better idea of how to succeed a better foray into both live mobile and desktop
and a greater likelihood of success. video streaming. ■

Start with Live Streaming

The live video streaming medium is more
mature than mobile video streaming with
established channels and higher quality content.
Currently there are brands garnering quality
audiences with the creation of higher quality
video production and frequent, relevant, and
engaging content on channels like Justin.tv,
Ustream.com and LiveStream.com.

TIPPINGPOINT LABS 2.
New Media Life Cycle Analysis™ August 12, 2009

Qik Livestream.com

Gender Gender

Male Female
43% 42%
Female Male
57% 58%

Age Age

13-17
36% 13-17
20% 18-34
37%
18-34
19% 3-12
3-12 2%
4%
50+
35-49 16%
50+
23% 17% 35-49
26% Source: Quantcast
Audience Analysis

Qik Trends Young and Female, Should Pursue New Market

Qik’s flat traffic growth, documented in the previous
section, and outsized teenage audience suggests that
Qik.com needs to get some fresh eyes on their
platform or risk getting stuck in the adoption phase
indefinitely.
Audiences Move in Herds
In order to move to the next phase of their life cycle,
Qik will need a new demographic influx creating
more widely consumable content.
Looking at a more established live streaming
channel, like Livestream.com, might help pave the
path to this new demographic of 18-34 year old males.

Demographic wave exposure and adoption is an
online phenomenon in which new age groups and
cliques move to new platforms in a desire to create
new content designed to ‘speak’ to their
demographic.
This influx of new users, combined with higher-
quality content will help push the channel into
gestation and a step closer to mainstream adoption.■

Qik.com, as demonstrated by its success with the

Twilight movie premiere, is dominated by young
(13-17,) females.

TIPPINGPOINT LABS 3.
New Media Life Cycle Analysis™ August 12, 2009

Forecast Analysis

Live Mobile Streaming Improves Quality or Folds

Live mobile streaming will have to find its voice as a Qik.com Expands Their Live Video Streaming
medium, irrespective of Qik.com, meaning that we Platform
would like to see more live mobile video streaming
channels in order to qualify live mobile video It is also possible, but highly unlikely, that Qik.com
streaming as a distinct medium. will expand their live video streaming capabilities to
offer a similar set of functions and features for
Without more competition in the space, we believe desktop or laptop live video streaming to directly
that live mobile video streaming will be folded into compete with Ustream.tv, Justin.tv and
more widely adopted live video streaming channels as Livestream.com. However, this is a well-established
an additional element of live video production online. market with early players and a large head start on
any new players.■
Qik Is Acquired

It is possible that someone like LiveStream.com or

Justin.tv might acquire Qik.com in an effort to leap
frog Ustream.tv in a competitive bid to expand their
live broadcasting platforms. Qik’s biggest asset at
this point is their wide compatibility across models
and makes of supported mobile phones. If, however,
live mobile video streaming becomes a distinct and
unique category of live video streaming, Qik is well
positioned to lead the market and will be successful
in its own right.

Niche-Specific Growth & Opportunity

Live mobile streaming might remain a very specific

niche focused on one demographic: female teens (the
Twilight crowd.) This is very unlikely and might lead
to a rapid demise for the Qik.com platform. A video shot almost entirely with someone’s finger covering
the lense typifies the current content quality.
Live Mobile Streaming Folds Into Live
Streaming

Presently, neither the interest nor the content quality

warrant the existence of live mobile streaming as an
independent medium. If this trend continues, Qik
will become a value added element to live video
streaming on an existing (or new) live streaming
channel. UStream, for example, is ahead of this
curve. UStream has higher quality content with the
option for live mobile streaming integration.

TIPPINGPOINT LABS 4.
New Media Life Cycle Analysis™ August 12, 2009

High
Kyte:
Built in
production studio
makes streaming
one element. UStream:
Breadth of Service

1M+ users plus

live streaming
(User Pressure)

versatility.

Qik:
Focused on
Quality Live
mobile streaming
service.

Low
Low User Base High
(Exposure)

Key Forces
Competitive Threats Threaten Qik
The Four Key Forces like Kyte.com have attracted mediocre exposure with
the adoption of large brands and branded channels for
There are four main key forces that act on any new
their private-label video on-demand system. Unless
channel as it moves through its phases in the New
Qik.com sees more mass media exposure in the next
Media Life Cycle™. These forces are expressed as
six months with high-quality content examples, their
Exposure, Momentum, User Pressure and Competitive
success is in question.
Threats.
Momentum
User Pressure
Momentum, expressed as a trend in long term user
User pressure (the current user base pushing the
adoption for Qik.com, is in a slight decline. This kind
channel to introduce new features or functions) which
of stagnation is typical of an early channel
in this case can be expressed as the desire for fully
characterized by low-quality aggregate content. Unless
featured live video streaming platforms is higher than
there is a significant shift in the next three months,
ever before. Qik.com will see more users attempting to
Qik.com may not survive the Adoption phase.
aggregate all of their live video in one place. This
pressure might push a deep migration of users from Competitive Threats
Qik.com to channels like Ustream.tv.
Qik is the only dedicated live mobile streaming
Exposure channel; it’s competitors Kyte and UStream offer live
mobile video streaming as one element of a live video
Exposure, in the form of mass media attention or
experience. Qik might be snuffed out very quickly by
large-scale events that drive new-user adoption will
the more powerful Ustream.tv with its latest
prove to be a challenge for Qik.com moving forward.
introduction of live mobile video streaming on an
Even competing mobile live video streaming channels
already successful channel. ■

TIPPINGPOINT LABS
5.
New Media Life Cycle Analysis™
Screenshot !om the Qik broadcast of the Red Carpet
Premiere of the vampire love story Twilight.
Content Potential
Demi Moore, Ashton Kutcher & Tons of Crap
Finding quality content on Qik.com is extremely
difficult. Much of the video is ‘experimental’ in
nature. There is a lot of “hey, I’m just trying this
out...” video on the channel today.
As we evaluate the quality of the content here are a
few things that seem to drive value:
Access
Demi Moore, a world famous actress and the wife
of teen-idol Ashton Kutcher started streaming live
video from the set of a new movie in April. Although
she didn’t stream much video, Ms. Moore provided
the audience with access to an environment most
people will never see. This kind of ‘behind the
scenes’ video has been extremely successful.
Providing your audience with a live mobile video
stream from backstage at an event is the kind of
content that adds value to a channel like Qik.com.
Event Based
Some of the most useful content on Qik appears to
be event-based. For example, a reporter for a local
TIPPINGPOINT LABS
August 12, 2009
The Qik.com homepage, streaming the latest live
video.
newspaper in St. Louis streamed a city council
meeting live. This kind of purpose-driven live
streaming seems very effective and interesting.
Passionate Audience
In either case (access or event-based streaming), it
seems that some of the most successful streaming is
a direct result of capturing the intrigue and
excitement of an existing passionate audience. One
of the best examples of this can be found in the case
of the Twilight film premiere.
Twilight Film Premiere Causes Sensation
The film premiere of the teen vampire love story
Twilight was produced by a group called Twilighter’s
Anonymous. Stationed strategically at the films Los
Angeles premiere the Twilighter’s Anonymous
mobile streaming crew broadcast live from the red
carpet. Although the production quality is mediocre
at best the red carpet videos have been viewed more
than 20,000 times proving the power and reach for
an exclusive, event-based live mobile video stream.
■
6.
New Media Life Cycle Analysis™
August 12, 2009

Live Streaming and Live Mobile Streaming Interest

Live Streaming Live Mobile Streaming
100
Source: Google Insights
75
50
25
0
05 v-04
16- -05
25- -05

-Se 5

21- -05

10- r-06
No 5

01- -06

19- -06
28- -06
06 t-06
17- -07
26- r-07
04 y-07
13- -07
22- t-07
01- c-07
10- r-08
19- -08
27- -08
-08

14- c-08
25- -09
04 -09
9
-0
p-0

l-0
r

v
b

Jun

r
g

y
Jul
Sep
Jan

Jun

b
g
Ap

Ma

Oc

-Ju
Ma
Ap

Ap
Oc

De
Ma

e
Ma
-Au
-Fe
No

-Ja
Au

Fe
-D
12-
03
27-

06
Thus far, interest in live mobile streaming does not approach the interest in live streaming generally. For Qik to succeed
long term, live mobile streaming as a sub category will have to generate more demand or Qik will have to adjust strategy
and move into the live streaming space.

Medium Overview

Live Mobile Streaming Medium in Adoption

Live video streaming, as demonstrated by Ustream.tv, live mobile video and attract an audience to a new
Justin.tv or Livestream.com is a rapidly maturing channel. This might prove to be a very difficult task.
medium. However, live mobile streaming is a
relatively new phenomenon. Channels providing live video streaming, like
Ustream.tv, have already made headway in proving
Live video streaming in general is an extremely the value of live video streaming (from a desktop or
difficult medium to create content for. On television, laptop) and the logical extension for a channel like
news, sporting events and one-time only events Livestream.com or Justin.tv would be to offer users
demand live coverage. The same principles in the the ability to stream live video to their existing
online world might apply, however, very few people channel and audience from a mobile device. With an
are streaming live video because it needs to be live. existing userbase and channel momentum these
As the medium evolves we’ll see more users find channels could eclipse Qik.com very easily.
innovative ways to demand a live viewing audience.
Use a Channel That Does Both
Live video streaming refers to the act of broadcasting Our recommendation at this time would be to
live video online from a physical, hard-wire explore the use of a channel that offers both live
connected device, a laptop for example. Unlike the video streaming and live mobile streaming for the
cost of distributing broadcast television, the cost of experimentation of mobile video streaming.
streaming video live is free (or low cost) for the user.
UStream for example, is an established live streaming
As the chart above demonstrates, mobile video channel that has recently launched live mobile
streaming has yet to catch on, putting Qik.com at streaming as part of its service. The channel’s
the forefront of the category’s creation. For mobile content quality is higher than that of anyone in the
video streaming to take off, users must have a mobile video streaming category .■
compatible mobile device, find the need to deliver

TIPPINGPOINT LABS 7.
 New Media Life Cycle Analysis™ August 12, 2009

New Media Life Cycle Analysis: Qik

300,000 Steve

Experimentation
Garfield
Live on

Adoption
NECN
Public
Beta
225,000 Launch
Live
at
Unique Visitors

International
CES
150,000

Twilight
Film
75,000 Invitation Premiere
Only Alpha
Launch

Source: Compete
0
-07

Sep 7

De 8
-07

No 7
De 7
7
-08

Ma 8
Ap 8
Ma 8
8
-08
-08

Sep 8
-08

No 8

8
-09

Ma 9
Ap 9
Ma 9
9
-09
-09
g-0

t-0
v-0
c-0

b-0
r-0
r-0
y-0

g-0

t-0
v-0
c-0

b-0
r-0
r-0
y-0
Jul

Jan

Jun
Jul

Jan

Jun
Jul
Oc

Oc
Au

Au
Fe

Fe
For more than a year, Qik has been adoption. Greater interest in the platform and greater video mobile
phone growth will help push the service to gestation.

Phase Analysis
Qik.com In Adoption Phase
While the live mobile streaming medium is in
experimentation, Qik.com is actually in the adoption
phase of the Tippingpoint Labs New Media Life
Cycle™.
Live Mobile Streaming in Experimentation
The medium, as a whole, needs the early adopters to
improve the quality of their content in the live
mobile video streaming category to attract a new
wave of adopters this will help push the medium into
the adoption phase. The lack of high quality content
on Qik.com at this time severely limits its ability to
grow and it will be stuck in the adoption phase until
we see a dramatic improvement in the overall quality
of the content created on the channel.
Qik in Adoption
The adoption phase is categorized by a new wave of
users creating more frequent slightly higher-quality
content. With some small scale attention and
exposure from outlets like New England Cable News
and the Twilight Premiere, the channel has seen
limited new user adoption.
Looking Ahead: Qik in Gestation
What Qik needs, and the medium in general will
require, is for channel adpoters to commit to
creating live mobile streaming content at a higher
quality and relevant events. If this does not happen,
live mobile streaming may become a novelty rolled
into bigger platforms like UStream.tv.■

TIPPINGPOINT LABS 8.
New Media Life Cycle Analysis™ August 12, 2009

Glossary

Terminology
Medium - A form of communication.
Example: Blo(ing or video on demand.
Platform - a framework for a medium’s application.
Example: The iPhone is a platform for the mobile application medium. Wordpress is a platform for blo(ing.
Channel - The service provider of a medium.
Example: Scribd is a channel for document sharing. Blo(er.com is a channel for blo(ing.
Content - Medium expression.
Example: A blog post is content delivered through the blo(ing medium.

About Tippingpoint Labs

Tippingpoint Labs is an online content creation agency with one focus: to create and distribute high quality,
frequently distributed, relevant branded content for its clients.

The Tippingpoint editorial staff, multi-media production team and the research analysts strive to develop a
deeper understanding of the entire web universe, not just Facebook or Twitter.

Tippingpoint has helped clients like Breville, TomTom and Putnam Investments increase sales and reduce
costs by creating content that resonates with their clients’ audience.

We believe in the transformative power of a new media strategy built around valuable content designed to
reach a specific audience. Do you feel the same way?

Contact Scott Loring, our Managing Director, at 617.332.8261. ■

About the New Media Life Cycle™

The New Media Life Cycle™ is the brain child of Tippingpoint Labs Chief Strategist, Andrew Davis. It is a
framework for analyzing new media with an emphasis on quality of content, user adoption and demographic
migration. The New Media Life Cycle™ Analysis is designed to put any given subject (a channel, platform or
medium) in context with the larger new media landscape.

Designed specifically for Chief Marketing Officers and marketing executives, the life cycle analysis is
designed to help quickly and effectively understand the new media landscape. ■

TIPPINGPOINT LABS 9.
New Media Life Cycle Analysis August 11, 2009

Inside This Report

Each week, the analysts at Tippingpoint Labs release a New Media Life
Cycle™ report designed to help marketing professionals understand Key Areas Analyzed
the new media landscape. Channel Overview
These reports use empirical data and a sound methodology to help ad Content Potential
agencies, PR firms, marketing consultants, interactive agencies and Medium Overview
chief marketing officers make educated and informed new media
Phase Analysis
decisions.
Audience Analysis
Each report looks at the quality of the content on a channel, the state Key Forces
of the medium, an analysis of the life cycle and the audiences
participating on the platform, the key forces shaping the channel, a Forecast Analysis
forecast for the channel’s future and sound content recommendations Recommendations
for participating by adding value.■

Intrigued by our analysis?

Find more of our content at:

TippingpointLabs.com

TippingpointLabs.tv

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Newton, MA 02458

617.332.8261