August 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

August 2009
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Real Estate Market Report
September 8, 2009
provided courtesy of
and Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker,

Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors
September 8, 2009
HOME SALES REPORT

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County September 8, 2009
H
# Home S l
Sales 2008 2009 % Ch
Change
682
August ź 106 77 -27.36% 532
Year To Date ź 682 532 -21.99%

2008 2009
d 1
Median Sales Price 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
2008 2009 % Change $198k $189k
August ź $191,500 $190,000 -0.78%

Year To Date ź $197,650 $189,000 -4.38%
2008 2009
Average Sales Price 2008 2009 % Change $225k $220k
August ź $231,653 $210,042 -9.33%

Year To Date ź $224,604 $219,979 -2.06%
2008 2009
Average Days on Market 2008 2009 % Change 157

190
August ź 170 158 -7.06%

Year To Date Ÿ 163 185 13.50%
2008 2009
The overall pace of home sales continues to decline in Harrisonburg and however, have both only shifted 5% (downward) over the past year, which is
Rockingham County with a 27% decline year over year from 106 sales in August the silver lining amidst the continuing decline in sales pace. Of note, this chart
2008 to 77 sales in August 2009. The year-to-date figures show a 22% decline and all other charts and graphs in this report are based on all real estate activity
from 682 sales in 2008 to 532 sales in 2009. Median and average sales prices, recorded in the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Multiple Listing Service.
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors. Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
September 8, 2009

Month-By-Month Home Sales History
200 2005
2006
2007
175 2008
2009
150
Single Familyy, Townhome & Condo Sales
125
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
100
95
86
75
75 77
50 57
53 51
1
37
25
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
After an exciting July, with home sales matching last July’s sales pace, in August we still show promise, due to the potential sales increased related to the tail end of
now see a return to the trend that we have seen for most of 2009. The number the first time buyer $8,000 tax credit, and the extraordinarily slow September
of residential properties selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is again through November of last year. It seems nearly impossible to meet the overall
roughly 25% below the sales levels from 2008. The final few months of the year pace of 2008 this year, but hopefully we will pull closer as the year ends.
September 8, 2009

Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes
Sum of Preceding 12 Months
1,800
1,600
1,400
1 400
1,200
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
This graph shows the running sum of 12 month home sales totals, to account thus, that the number of home sales has been declining since 2006, with a only a
for the seasonality of home sales. That is to say that the August 2009 figure few periods of leveling off or increasing. When sales activity does start to pick
includes home sales from September 2008 through August 2009, and the value up again in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County (which has not yet happened)
in the graph for each month previous also shows a 12 month total. We can see, we will see a very slow and gradual change in this graph.
September 8, 2009

Home Sales & Price Trends
Single Family Homes & Townhomes
1,800 $250,000
1,669
+11%
1,600
$195,500
$195,100
-14%
1,507
$189,000
+14% 1,438 +1% +0.2%
$200,000
1 400
1,400
1,324
-13%
$192,983
+15% 1,248
+14%
1,200 1,153
+8%
9,900
1,071 -25%
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
+14% $150 000
$150,000
$169
1,000
$149,000
+29% 936
+17%
829
-0.3% +4%
800 $127,700
$122,,900
$122,,588
+6%
00
$116,00
$100,000
600 532
400
$50,000
200
0 $0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The yellow bars in this graph show the total number of single family homes and small changes that we have seen in median sales prices (shown by the blue line)
townhome sales for each of the last nine years. Last year, 2008, marked a return during that same time period. The number of home sales declined 44% between
to a sales pace just above 2000. We will likely see yet another decline this year, 2005 and 2008, but the median sales price increased a remarkable 15% during
as compared to 2008. This sharp decline (since 2005) is in contrast to the very those same years.
September 8, 2009

Single Family Homes
1,200 $275,000
$226,800
0
$223,575
$215,000
1,024 n/a 1,025
$205,500
-11% -1%
-4%
1,000 $225,000
+16%
+8%
8% 909
868 +3% 880
$210,000
-2% 851 -12%
+24% 798
800 $175,000
+29%
-18%
00
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$170,00
674
+16% 654
+8%
$147,000
+2%
600 $125,000
$136,000
133,239
+9%
$122,850
$1
400 362 $75,000
200 $25,000
0 -$25,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
While the overall market showed a dramatic decline in sales pace over the last median sales price of single family homes has decreased a total of 9% since 2006,
five years, the single family home market didn’t decrease in sales pace as quickly. though that has been in very small increments, and a good portion of that decline
That being said, median home values have increased more significantly when between 2008 and 2009. We may yet see an upward shift in overall median sales
looking solely at detached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The price in 2009, which would soften the blow of slightly declining home values.
September 8, 2009

Townhomes
700
50
$167,25
$163,800
644
$162,450
$160,850
$180,000
+2%
600 +2%
$160,000
+33% +19%
529
500 483 $140,000

-18% -15%
444 450
34,950
d 1 3,100
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$103 +9% +14% $120,000
+47%
$13
$94,600
400
$118,500
$89,000
+10%
+5% $100,000
$108,200
-37%
+9%
302
300 +6% 282
$80 000
$80,000
+49%
203 $60,000
200
+31% 170
155
$40,000
100
$20,000
0 $0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Between 2000 and 2005, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market however, sales have declined again at least to pre-2002 levels. The saving grace
witnessed a dramatic increase in the number of townhome sales, many of which of this segment of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market
were built as new townhomes during that time period. In fact, there was a 315% is that median sale prices have remained stable, with repeating year-over-year
increase in this segment of the market between 2000 and 2005. Since that time, increases every year since 2000, with the possible exception of 2008 to 2009.
September 8, 2009

Inventory Levels
1200
1000
945 944 932 932
928 917
909 904
888
866
8
828 838
794
800
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
600
400
200
0
Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09
This graph shows a 13-month history of the inventory of available single family hopefully, returning to a greater degree of balance between buyers and sellers.
homes, townhomes and condos in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Buyers should be aware that inventory will likely continue to decline through the
August 2009’s inventory level of 917 is a 3% decline from August 2008’s inventory remainder of 2009, as we head into the winter months -- this will limit buyers’
level of 945. This modest reduction of inventory is a sign of our local market, options to some extent, until we get to February 2010.
September 8, 2009

Housing Supply Trends by Price Range
$0 - $200k $200k - $300k $300k - $400k 400k +
30
27
26
25 25 26
25 25
24 25
24 24
23
22
22
20
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
16 16
16 15
15 15 15
15 15 15 15 15
14
13 14
13 12 13
11 12 12 12
11
10 10 10 10
10 10
8 9
8 8 8 8
8 8
0
Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09
Supply levels as reflected in this graph are determined by dividing current upon the price segment of the market that we examine. Higher end of homes
inventory levels by the average number of homes sold per month over the past ($400k+) still show over a two year supply --- which also means a staggering
12 months. Months of supply is broken down between price ranges, as there is a number of choices for buyers. In contrast, the more affordable segment of our
significant variation of the amount of housing supply that is available dependent market (under $200k) only offers 10 months of housing supply.
September 8, 2009

Median Price Per Square Foot Trends
Single Family Homes
$150.00
$131
$130
$129
$128
$127
$126
$126
$126
$125
$125
$123
$121
$120
$120
$119
$125.00
$116
$115
$113
$
$105
$105
$99
$96
$100.00
$92
$90
$87
$86
84
83
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$82
2
$8
$8
$80
$79
$78
$77
$76
$76
$74
$73
$73
$73
$75.00
$50.00
$25.00
$0.00
2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1
Median price per square foot, as shown in this graph, is calculated only on single a staggering 52% increase between 2003 and 2006. Perhaps this is why we have
family homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. While the median now seen an 8% decline between 2006 and 2009 --- resulting in an overall increase
price per square foot rose between 2000 and 2006, the rate at which it did so of 53%, or 17.5% for each of three year period. Median price per square foot
has varied significantly. Our market saw a 9% increase between 2000 and 2003, has generally risen over the past year, which may indicate a new market trend.
September 8, 2009

Median Price Per Square Foot by Sales Price
Single Family Homes
0 - 1,499 SF 1,500 - 2,500 SF 2,500+ SF
150
$140
140 $138
$
$133
130 $128
$123 $123 $123
$121
120 $122 $116
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$113 $119
$115
110
$105
$106 $105
100
$93 $94
$89
90
$84 $92
$84
80 $77 $77 $83

$74
$71
70
$71 $72
$68
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
There are some base costs in a home (land, water, sewer, etc) that do significantly square foot). It is also interesting to see how these median values trend over time.
vary from small home (less than 1,500 s.f.) to large home (greater than 2,500 s.f.). Both small and large homes have shown a decline in median price per square foot
Thus, the median price per square foot varies significantly between these smaller over the past year, while the median price per square foot of mid-sized homes
homes (median of $128 per square foot) and larger homes (median of $105 per (1,500 - 2,500 s.f.) has increased.
September 8, 2009

Lot Sales & Median Prices
less than 1 acre
450 $120,000
408
$99,900
400
$100,000
350
$76,500
304
300 $80,000
66,500
d 1
261
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$6
$58,300
247
250
$54,500
$60,000
201
200
$42,,000
$36,900
165
$32,208
$30,500
150 $40,000
$26,000
111
100 85
74
$20,000
50
24
0 $0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Lot sales of less than one acre have declined dramatically since their peak of 2006, but then showed a sharp decline between 2006 and 2008. The increase in
408 sales in 2004. In fact, in the first eight months of 2009 only 24 sales have median lot sales price shown between 2008 and 2009 may be a result of the small
taken place (3 sales per month), as compared to a staggering 34 sales per month sample size of only 24 lot sales in 2009. As the year continues we will hopefully
in 2004. Of interest, lot prices increased steadily (and then drastically) through have fuller data from which to extrapolate potential value changes.
September 8, 2009

Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre
1 acre or more
180 $30,000
168
$24,184
160
$25,000
250
140
$21,2
$17,713
120 $20,000
107
$15,083
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
0
$15,000
100
87 $15,000
$12,003
83
80 76
$9,535 77
$8,333
$8,245
58
60 $10,000
53
42
40
$8,234
24 $5,000
20
0 $0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
With a few exceptions (2001, 2004, 2005), the number of land sales with at least of these land transactions. The line plotting the median price per acre over time
one acre has remained relatively steady over the years, varying from 53 to 87. shows that we have seen a decline in land values over the past several years as the
Land sales in 2009 are likely to be a bit lower than this normal range, but not amount of land sales has steadily declined.
dramatically so. However, we do see dramatic shifts in the median sales price
September 8, 2009

New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends
Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot
200
186
180 200
158
160
140 139
$144
138 137
140
$139
150
$150
121
146
d 1
120 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$1
109
$133
100
$114
89
100
105
$1
9
$99
80
$94
$87
60
48
50
40
20
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The median price per square foot of single family homes sold in the third quarter and new homes, those in excellent condition, as well as those in need of repairs.
of 2009 in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is $120, in contrast to the Also, the new construction median of $139 includes data from small single family
median price per square foot of $139 for all new construction homes sold in 2009. homes as well as enormous newly built homes -- thus new construction price per
This gap is to be expected, as the overall median in the market reflects both old square foot will vary from $139 based on the size of the home.
September 8, 2009
H i b
Harrisonburg R ki h
& Rockingham C
County
Days on Market Analysis
Residential Listings Sold Mar '09 - Aug '09
< 2 years
3
1%
1 - 2 years
46
10%
0 - 3 months
9 - 12 months
144
d 1 49
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
33%
11%
6 - 9 months
66
15%
3 - 6 months
133
30%
While there is a 10 month to 25 month supply of homes on the market (depending and only 11% of the homes that have sold have taken longer than a year to do
on the price range), the homes that are actually selling are doing so much more so. Also, a remarkable one-third (33%) of all homes that have recently sold (in
quickly than those figures would suggest. Over half (63%) of the homes sold the past six months) sold within three months. As defined in this graph, “sold”
in the past six months (March 2009 - August 2009) have sold in 180 days or less, is the time from listing to closing.
September 8, 2009

Days on Market Analysis by Price Range
March 2009 - August 2009
0 -3 Months 3 - 6 Months 6 - 9 Months 9 - 12 Months 1 - 2 Years 2+ Years
All Homes 33% 30% 15% 11% 10%
Under $200k 38% 28% 14% 13% 7%

d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$200k - $300k 29% 35% 16% 5% 13% 3%
$300k - $400k 14% 36% 24% 12% 14%
$400k and up 30% 20% 10% 17% 23%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
The speed at which homes sell depends, to some extent, on their price. For sold over $400k took more than a year to sell, whereas only 7% of homes under
example, 66% of homes that sold under $200k went from a listing to a closing in $200k took that length of time. If a seller prices their home appropriately and
less than 180 days, but only 50% of those homes priced above $400k were able competitively, the data reflected on this graph will be a much better guide as to
to match that speed. And, as we would perhaps expect, a full 23% of homes that the time on the market, as compared to the graph showing months of supply.

August 2009 Harrisonburg &amp; Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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August 2009 Harrisonburg &amp; Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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August 2009

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

and Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker,

HOME SALES REPORT

August ź 106 77 -27.36% 532

Year To Date ź 682 532 -21.99%

August ź $191,500 $190,000 -0.78%

Average Sales Price 2008 2009 % Change $225k $220k

August ź $231,653 $210,042 -9.33%

Average Days on Market 2008 2009 % Change 157

August ź 170 158 -7.06%

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

400 362 $75,000

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

500 483 $140,000

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

80 $77 $77 $83

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

All Homes 33% 30% 15% 11% 10%

Under $200k 38% 28% 14% 13% 7%

$200k - $300k 29% 35% 16% 5% 13% 3%

$300k - $400k 14% 36% 24% 12% 14%

$400k and up 30% 20% 10% 17% 23%

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August 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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