TO: Citizens United Political Victory Fund

FROM: Kellyanne Conway, President & CEO

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend

DATE: June 16, 2014

RE: Survey of Likely Republican Primary Runoff Voters in Mississippi
_____________________________________________________________________

Conservative challenger Chris McDaniel may be the biggest beneficiary from the surprise
primary defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor last week. He has opened up a 12-point
lead over incumbent Senator Thad Cochran (52%-40%) in the Republican Primary runoff
election for U.S. Senate in Mississippi. McDaniel has a 10-point intensity advantage (47%-37%)
among those who say they are definite supporters.
Much can change over the next week, with all eyes on how the Cochran camp spends its
reported new haul of $1 million, and with outside groups already up on the air for Sen. Cochran.
But the momentum belongs to McDaniel. When asked who they think will prevail next
Tuesday regardless of their own preference, McDaniel wins that contest over Sen. Cochran
49%-26%.







52%
47%
3%
1%
40%
37%
3%
0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Total
McDaniel
Definitely
McDaniel
Probably
McDaniel
Lean
McDaniel
Total
Cochran
Definitely
Cochran
Probably
Cochran
Lean
Cochran
In the June 24th runoff to select the Republican Party's
nominee for U.S. Senator, do you plan to vote for Chris
McDaniel or Thad Cochran?

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend for CUPVF
Survey in Mississippi Republican Senate Runoff
June 2014
2
2
Chris McDaniels other strengths include:
McDaniel has an advantage over every age group except those 18-34.
McDaniel leads among both genders, and by double digits among men.
McDaniel enjoys nearly 2-1 support in the Southeast (60%-31%), and Northwest (61%-
33%).
Those identifying as very conservative favor McDaniel 63% to 30%.
McDaniel garners over 90% support of those who call themselves Tea Party
Republicans.
McDaniel has an 11-point lead among Independents (51%-40%).
This runoff survey shows McDaniel has also picked up a few crossover voters since the original
June 3
rd
primary election, as 7% of Cochran voters now support McDaniel in the runoff, and 2%
of McDaniel voters have flipped to Cochran.
Each of the candidates voters are committed, with 93% saying they are certain of their vote.
Further, 6% of Cochran voters and 7% of McDaniel voters say they might change their minds.
Coupled with the 8% that are still undecided, there still is room for movement, and neither mans
voters should take for granted the June 24
th
outcome.








93%
7%
McDaniel Voters
Certain
Might
Change
Mind
93%
6%
Cochran Voters
Certain
Might
Change
Mind

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend for CUPVF
Survey in Mississippi Republican Senate Runoff
June 2014
3
3
Both Cochran and McDaniel register respectable favorability ratings among the party
faithful, as the graph below illustrates. Yet McDaniel has seen a jump in his positive
numbers over previous polls. He now has a +34% favorable-unfavorable rating, while
Cochrans is +18%. McDaniel is viewed favorably by 68% of men, a key factor in his overall
advantage, along with the 69% of runoff voters residing in the Southeast. The Northeast and
Southwest regions prove best for Cochran, with 65% of voters in each voicing their favorability
for the senator.







Who wins the runoff in Mississippi will come down to whose base is more motivated to turn out,
and will depend on what is spent, done, and said in this final week. McDaniel claims the Big
Mo headed into next Tuesday, with Senator Cochran an underdog for the first time in decades.
Toppling an incumbent is tough, but as was true in Virginia, Republican primary voters may be
less impressed with seniority than have an appetite for change.
Survey Methodology
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend conducted a telephone survey of 501 voters likely to
vote in the Republican primary runoff in Mississippi. Voters were screened for likelihood to vote
in the runoff through three separate questions. The survey fielded June 12-13, 2014. using live
interviewers at a Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) facility. The margin is +/-
4.4% at the 95% confidence level. Results were not weighted because all quotas were met
naturally.




62%
55%
28%
37%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
McDaniel Cochran
Total Favorable Total Unfavorable