the polling company, inc./WomanTrend conducted a telephone survey of 501 voters likely to vote in the Republican primary runoff in Mississippi. Voters were screened for likelihood to vote in the runoff through three separate questions. The survey fielded June 12-13, 2014. using live interviewers at a Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) facility. The margin is +/- 4.4% at the 95% confidence level.
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend conducted a telephone survey of 501 voters likely to vote in the Republican primary runoff in Mississippi. Voters were screened for likelihood to vote in the runoff through three separate questions. The survey fielded June 12-13, 2014. using live interviewers at a Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) facility. The margin is +/- 4.4% at the 95% confidence level.
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend conducted a telephone survey of 501 voters likely to vote in the Republican primary runoff in Mississippi. Voters were screened for likelihood to vote in the runoff through three separate questions. The survey fielded June 12-13, 2014. using live interviewers at a Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) facility. The margin is +/- 4.4% at the 95% confidence level.
RE: Survey of Likely Republican Primary Runoff Voters in Mississippi _____________________________________________________________________
Conservative challenger Chris McDaniel may be the biggest beneficiary from the surprise primary defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor last week. He has opened up a 12-point lead over incumbent Senator Thad Cochran (52%-40%) in the Republican Primary runoff election for U.S. Senate in Mississippi. McDaniel has a 10-point intensity advantage (47%-37%) among those who say they are definite supporters. Much can change over the next week, with all eyes on how the Cochran camp spends its reported new haul of $1 million, and with outside groups already up on the air for Sen. Cochran. But the momentum belongs to McDaniel. When asked who they think will prevail next Tuesday regardless of their own preference, McDaniel wins that contest over Sen. Cochran 49%-26%.
52% 47% 3% 1% 40% 37% 3% 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Total McDaniel Definitely McDaniel Probably McDaniel Lean McDaniel Total Cochran Definitely Cochran Probably Cochran Lean Cochran In the June 24th runoff to select the Republican Party's nominee for U.S. Senator, do you plan to vote for Chris McDaniel or Thad Cochran?
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend for CUPVF Survey in Mississippi Republican Senate Runoff June 2014 2 2 Chris McDaniels other strengths include: McDaniel has an advantage over every age group except those 18-34. McDaniel leads among both genders, and by double digits among men. McDaniel enjoys nearly 2-1 support in the Southeast (60%-31%), and Northwest (61%- 33%). Those identifying as very conservative favor McDaniel 63% to 30%. McDaniel garners over 90% support of those who call themselves Tea Party Republicans. McDaniel has an 11-point lead among Independents (51%-40%). This runoff survey shows McDaniel has also picked up a few crossover voters since the original June 3 rd primary election, as 7% of Cochran voters now support McDaniel in the runoff, and 2% of McDaniel voters have flipped to Cochran. Each of the candidates voters are committed, with 93% saying they are certain of their vote. Further, 6% of Cochran voters and 7% of McDaniel voters say they might change their minds. Coupled with the 8% that are still undecided, there still is room for movement, and neither mans voters should take for granted the June 24 th outcome.
93% 7% McDaniel Voters Certain Might Change Mind 93% 6% Cochran Voters Certain Might Change Mind
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend for CUPVF Survey in Mississippi Republican Senate Runoff June 2014 3 3 Both Cochran and McDaniel register respectable favorability ratings among the party faithful, as the graph below illustrates. Yet McDaniel has seen a jump in his positive numbers over previous polls. He now has a +34% favorable-unfavorable rating, while Cochrans is +18%. McDaniel is viewed favorably by 68% of men, a key factor in his overall advantage, along with the 69% of runoff voters residing in the Southeast. The Northeast and Southwest regions prove best for Cochran, with 65% of voters in each voicing their favorability for the senator.
Who wins the runoff in Mississippi will come down to whose base is more motivated to turn out, and will depend on what is spent, done, and said in this final week. McDaniel claims the Big Mo headed into next Tuesday, with Senator Cochran an underdog for the first time in decades. Toppling an incumbent is tough, but as was true in Virginia, Republican primary voters may be less impressed with seniority than have an appetite for change. Survey Methodology the polling company, inc./WomanTrend conducted a telephone survey of 501 voters likely to vote in the Republican primary runoff in Mississippi. Voters were screened for likelihood to vote in the runoff through three separate questions. The survey fielded June 12-13, 2014. using live interviewers at a Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) facility. The margin is +/- 4.4% at the 95% confidence level. Results were not weighted because all quotas were met naturally.
62% 55% 28% 37% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% McDaniel Cochran Total Favorable Total Unfavorable