California voters report they're financially better off this year than they were last year. But, they're not so positive about California's overall economy.
California voters report they're financially better off this year than they were last year. But, they're not so positive about California's overall economy.
California voters report they're financially better off this year than they were last year. But, they're not so positive about California's overall economy.
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Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer THE FIELD POLL Release #2473 Release Date: Thursday, June 26, 2014 FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2007 MORE CALIFORNIA VOTERS SAY THEY ARE FINANCIALLY BETTER OFF THAN THEY WERE DURING THE PRIOR YEAR. YET, MORE STILL DESCRIBE THE STATE AS BEING IN ECONOMIC BAD TIMES THAN GOOD TIMES. IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520) By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field According to The Field Polls annual assessment of the economic well-being of Californians, 44% of registered voters now report that they are financially better off than they were last year, while 28% are worse off. Another 28% say there has been no change. This is the first time in seven years that more California voters have reported being financially better off than worse off compared to the prior year. Nevertheless, when asked to describe the overall California economy, more than twice as many still describe the state as being in economic bad times (53%) as good times (25%). Contributing to this assessment are voter concerns about the availability of jobs. Nearly two in three (64%) believe jobs are difficult to find in their area, while just 21% feel they are plentiful. In addition, 52% describe unemployment in California as very serious. These findings come from the latest statewide Field Poll completed last week. Improvement in Californians self-reported financial well-being More Californians now say they are financially better off this year compared to last (44%) as report being worse off (28%). Another 28% say there has been no change. This is a much more positive assessment of personal financial well-being than each of six prior Field Polls conducted since 2007, when many more described themselves as financially worse off than better off during the prior year. However, improvements in financial well-being vary considerably by household income. Voters with higher incomes are far more likely than those with lower incomes to report improvement. For example, among voters with annual household incomes of $80,000 or more, nearly three times as many report they are financially better off than they were during the prior year (58%) as say they are worse off (22%). By contrast, voters with annual household incomes of less than $40,000 are more likely to report being financially worse off this year (37%) than better off (30%). The Field Poll #2473 Thursday, June 26, 2014 Page 2 Table 1 Californians' personal financial well-being compared to one year ago (among registered voters) Better off No change Worse off June 2014 44% 28 28 2013 30% 26 44 2012 25% 33 42 2011 22% 28 50 2010 23% 25 52 2009 18% 23 59 2008 14% 23 63 2007 37% 30 33 2005 41% 28 31 2004 41% 32 27 2003 38% 26 36 2002 35% 30 35 2001 47% 26 27 2000 54% 28 18 1999 49% 35 16 1998 54% 30 16 1997 42% 31 27 1996 38% 35 27 1995 34% 32 34 1994 37% 32 31 1993 29% 26 45 1992 26% 24 50 1991 25% 28 47 1990 42% 28 30 1989 46% 27 27 1988 50% 23 27 1987 49% 26 25 1986 52% 28 20 1985 54% 27 19 1984 55% 24 21 1981 33% 25 42 1979 30% 28 41 1978 41% 35 24 1977 34% 36 30 1976 28% 33 39 1974 28% 29 43 1973 39% 33 28 1971 29% 36 35 1970 34% 33 33 1966 37% 45 18 1961 40% 41 19
Household income (June 2014) Less than $40,000 30% 33 37 $40,000-$79,999 48% 27 25 $80,000 or more 58% 20 22 Note: In this and succeeding tables, trend data prior to 1993 are based on all adults. Increasing proportion express optimism about their economic fortunes next year There is also somewhat greater optimism among Californians that their economic fortunes for the coming year will improve. Four in ten (40%) expect to be financially better off next year, up from The Field Poll #2473 Thursday, June 26, 2014 Page 3 30% who reported this in 2012 and 2013. Voters with annual incomes in excess of $80,000 are the most likely subgroup to express optimism about their finances next year than those with lower incomes.
Household income (June 2014) Less than $40,000 37% 54 9 $40,000-$79,999 35% 54 11 $80,000 or more 46% 44 10 The Field Poll #2473 Thursday, June 26, 2014 Page 4 Continuing negative assessment of the overall California economy Despite the improvement in voters evaluation of their own financial situation, more continue to describe the overall California economy in negative rather than positive terms. At present, more than twice as many say the state is in economic bad times (53%) as believe it is in good times (25%). However, this is a less negative assessment than voters expressed in each of the past six years when between 72% and 96% described the state as being in economic bad times. Table 3 Perceived state of California's economy (among registered voters) Bad times In-between/ mixed Good times June 2014 53% 22 25 2013 72% 12 16 2012 88% 7 5 2011 91% 4 5 2010 93% 4 3 2009 96% 2 2 2008 86% 8 6 2007 52% 26 20 2005 49% 21 24 2004 53% 22 24 2003 75% 12 11 2002 56% 21 20 2001 22% 7 69 2000 13% 10 71 1999 11% 14 72 1998 15% 16 65 1997 42% 23 33 1996 57% 20 19 1995 72% 16 11 1994 81% 14 5 1993 91% 6 3 1992 93% 4 2 1991 85% 8 5 1990 47% 20 30 1989 24% 18 55 1988 21% 19 59 1987 22% 24 51 1986 15% 22 59 1985 19% 16 62 1984 22% 25 50 1983 77% 11 10 1982 60% 23 16 1981 54% 19 24 1980 56% 21 21 1979 41% 17 40 1978 26% 26 42 Note: Differences between 100% and the sum of each year's percentages equal the proportion with no opinion.
The Field Poll #2473 Thursday, June 26, 2014 Page 5 Differences in perceptions of the states economy across voter subgroups While voters across all income categories are more likely to describe the state as being in economic bad times than good times, there are significant differences in evaluations across subgroups of the voting population. For example, there are large partisan differences in perceptions of the overall economy, with Republicans (68%) much more likely than Democrats (40%) to say California is in economic bad times. Also, voters with lower incomes are more apt to describe the state in negative terms than those with higher levels of income. Voters in the San Francisco Bay Area offer a more positive assessment of the California economy than voters elsewhere, with as many saying they believe the state is in economic good times as bad times.
Table 4 Perceptions of the California economy by income and party registration (among registered voters) Bad times Mixed (volunteered) Good times Total registered voters 53% 22 25 Party registration Democrats 40% 28 32 Republicans 68% 16 16 No party preference/others 57% 21 22 Household income Less than $40,000 62% 22 16 $40,000-$79,999 52% 18 30 $80,000 or more 46% 23 31 Region Los Angeles County 44% 25 31 Other Southern California 65% 19 16 Central Valley 63% 13 24 San Francisco Bay Area 35% 30 35 Other Northern California* 62% 10 28 *Small sample base
Two in three say jobs in their area are hard to find Two in three voters (64%) say that jobs are difficult to find in the area where they live. This is three times the proportion (21%) who maintains that jobs are plentiful in their region. While more voters across all regions hold to this view, a somewhat smaller proportion of the residents of the San Francisco Bay Area (49%) say jobs are difficult to find in their area. By contrast, lower income Californians are more likely than others to believe jobs in their area are hard to find.
The Field Poll #2473 Thursday, June 26, 2014 Page 6 Table 5 Job opportunities in the area where you live (among registered voters)
Jobs difficult to find Lots of some/few of others (volunteered) Plenty of jobs available Dont know Statewide 64% 7 21 8 Region Los Angeles County 67% 8 18 7 Other Southern California 65% 4 20 11 Central Valley 72% 7 15 6 San Francisco Bay Area 49% 9 33 9 Other Northern California* 81% 4 9 6 Household income Less than $40,000 73% 4 17 6 $40,000-$79,999 59% 6 25 10 $80,000 or more 60% 8 22 10 * Small sample base
Half describe unemployment in the state as very serious Half of the states voters (52%) believe unemployment in California is very serious, 36% say it is somewhat serious and 9% feel it is not serious. While a generally negative assessment, the proportion of voters terming unemployment as very serious has declined each year since 2010, when a record high 89% of voters felt this way.
Region (June 2014) Los Angeles County 53% 38 6 Other Southern California 57% 31 8 Central Valley 49% 39 9 San Francisco Bay Area 43% 38 16 Other Northern California* 50% 35 11 (Differences between 100% and sum of percentages equal proportion with no opinion.)
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The Field Poll #2473 Thursday, June 26, 2014 Page 8 Information About The Survey Methodological Details The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll completed June 5-22, 2014. The survey was conducted among a random sample of 2,013 California adults, of whom 1,382 reported being registered to vote. In order to cover a broad range of issues and still minimize respondent fatigue, the findings in this report are based on a random subsample of 658 registered voters statewide. To capture the diversity of the California adult population, the survey was administered in six languages and dialects English, Spanish, Cantonese, Mandarin, Vietnamese and Korean, depending on the preference of the voter. The sample was developed using dual frame random digit dial landline and cell phone listings covering the state of California. For this survey, a total of 1,402 interviews were conducted via cell phone and 611 on a landline or other type of phone. The combined landline and cell phone sample was weighted to match demographic, geographic and voter registration estimates of the overall California adult population. The weighting process also takes into account the higher probability of reaching respondents who receive calls on both a landline and cell phone. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the subsample of registered voters reported in this release is about +/- 4.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The maximum sampling error estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at either tail of the distributions (i.e., results closer to 10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys of public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey sought to minimize these other possible errors. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Poll receives funding from media subscribers, California foundations and independent not-for- profit organizations, and from the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes. Questions Asked Would you say that you and your family are financially better off or worse off today than you were a year ago? Looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you will be better off financially, worse off, or just about the same as now? How would you generally describe economic conditions in California now? Would you say that economically, California is in good times or bad times right now? How serious a problem do you think unemployment is in California at this time? Is it very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious? Thinking about the job opportunities where you live, would you say there are plenty of jobs available or are jobs difficult to find?