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Hickman Analytics, Inc.
Honest Accurate Insight



MEMORANDUM
TO: Interested parties
FROM: Harrison Hickman and Eily Hayes
RE: Recent Arkansas poll results
DATE: September 5, 2014



Summary findings. Our recent survey of likely voters in Arkansas finds Mark Pryor leading Tom Cotton
45% to 43%. Pryor is considerably more popular than Cotton among undecided voters and those whose
current support is soft.

Personal popularity. Both major party candidates have slightly higher favorable ratings than unfavorable
ratings despite months of negative advertising in the state. 45% have a favorable opinion of Mark Pryor,
while 42% rate the Senator unfavorably. Cottons favorable and unfavorable ratings are 41% favorable,
38% unfavorable. Intense opinions of the two are nearly identical 20% strongly favorable and about 25%
strongly unfavorable for each candidate.

Personal popularity and vote preference
Personal popularity Vote
Favorable Unfavorable preference
Mark Pryor 45% 42 Pryor 45%
Tom Cotton 41% 38 Cotton 43
Undecided 12

Vote preference. Senator Pryor holds a 2-percentage point lead (Pryor 45%, Cotton 43%), which is within
the surveys margin of sampling error of 3.7 points, plus or minus. In recent weeks, Cotton has lost ground
with white voters under 60, particularly women and non-partisans.

Soft and undecided voters. With just over eight weeks until election-day, 12% of Arkansas voters remain
undecided. An additional 15% either leans toward supporting a candidate or admit that they may switch
and vote for another candidate. These soft and undecided voters 27% of the likely electorate are
predominately white non-partisans, younger voters, and women. Pryor is more popular among these
voters: 40% favorable, 33% unfavorable for Pryor versus 27% favorable, 33% unfavorable for Cotton.


Technical note: This memo is based on a survey of 700 likely general election voters in Arkansas. Telephone
interviewing was conducted August 26
th
through September 3
rd
, 2014. The sample was selected so all voters with a
working telephone were equally likely to be contacted, and included both landline and cell phone numbers. The results
were adjusted slightly to align the sample with known facts about the demographic composition of the off-year Arkansas
electorate. All polls are subject to errors associated with interviewing a sample rather than the entire universe. The
estimation associated with a sample of 700 is +/-3.7 percentage points.