Mark Begich has already rebounded sooner than expected from what turned out to be a fleeting bounce by Dan Sullivan following his post-primary win and honeymoon. Our latest survey shows Begich already recovering to a 5% lead over Sullivan with Begich's vote share now at 45% to Sullivan's 40%.
Mark Begich has already rebounded sooner than expected from what turned out to be a fleeting bounce by Dan Sullivan following his post-primary win and honeymoon. Our latest survey shows Begich already recovering to a 5% lead over Sullivan with Begich's vote share now at 45% to Sullivan's 40%.
Mark Begich has already rebounded sooner than expected from what turned out to be a fleeting bounce by Dan Sullivan following his post-primary win and honeymoon. Our latest survey shows Begich already recovering to a 5% lead over Sullivan with Begich's vote share now at 45% to Sullivan's 40%.
From: Paul Harstad, Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. Date: September 12, 2014 Re: Begich Rebounds to a 5-Point Lead, Following Sullivans Brief Post- Primary Bounce
Mark Begich has already rebounded sooner than expected from what turned out to be a fleeting bounce by Dan Sullivan following his post-primary win and honeymoon, according to our last three surveys among Alaska voters. As the table below shows, Begich had built up a 7% lead over Sullivan by the end of July with a 44% vote share in a multi-candidate field. In the week following Sullivans August 19 th Republican primary win, the Senate race narrowed to a deadheat with Begichs vote share dipping to 41%. This late-August tied race was not surprising given an expected bounce with the favorable coverage and exposure enjoyed by Sullivan. Our latest survey, however, shows Begich already recovering to a 5% lead over Sullivan with Begichs vote share now at 45% to Sullivans 40% and 6% of the vote for Libertarian Mark Fish. While we were confident that Begich would incrementally regain his significant lead, we did not expect him to rebound so promptly.
This Begich recovery is further confirmed by the two candidates popularity levels over the past two months.
Alaska Senate Preferences: Sept 7-10 (n = 709) % August 24-27 (n = 807) % July 20-24 (n = 808) % Begich differential +8 +8 +6 Favorable to Begich 50 51 49 Unfavorable to Begich 42 43 43
Sullivan differential -1 +5 +1 Favorable to Sullivan 41 42 38 Unfavorable to Sullivan 42 37 37
Begichs popularity level has stayed consistent over the past two months and his score is clearly above water with a +8% favorable-vs-unfavorable differential. By contrast, after a brief rebound in late August Sullivans popularity has dipped back down to even favorable vs-unfavorable -- indeed for the first time ebbing just below water with a -1% differential score. The bottom line is that while this Senate race is still undecided, Begich has emerged from the post-primary period in surprising good shape despite all the negative ads aired against him, and he remains in the favored position to win in November.