A Shareholder Activists Perspective on Bank Stocks Richard Lashley, PL Capital www.ValueInvestingCongress.com A Shareholder Activists Perspective on Bank Stocks April 3, 2014 PL Capital, LLC, 47 E. Chicago Avenue, Suite 336, Naperville, IL 60540 John Palmer (630) 848-1340 Fax: (630) 848-1342 jpalmer@plcapitalllc.com Richard Lashley (973) 539-5400 Fax: (973) 539-5404 rlashley@plcapitalllc.com Curt Thompson (312) 560-2675 Fax: (630) 848-1342 cthompson@plcapitalllc.com The 9 th Annual Value Investing Congress Las Vegas, NV Richard Lashley, Principal PL Capital Group Disclaimers 2
Information in this document is provided by Richard Lashley, PL Capital, LLC and their affiliates. It may not be based on sources considered to be reliable. In no case is any information contained herein warranted or implied to be an accurate representation of facts or otherwise guaranteed to be correct or complete.
This material is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities discussed herein or any interest in the Financial Edge Fund, L.P. or any other LP or Fund managed or advised by PL Capital (the Funds).
PL Capitals Investment Niche 3
Over the Past 18+ years PL Capitals Brand of Shareholder Activism and Investing has Generated Higher Returns with Lower Volatility PL Capital U.S. Bank/Thrift Stocks Willing to Work with Realistic Management Teams And Boards Target Undervalued and Underperforming Banks/thrifts Fix It or Sell It 18+ Years Managing Bank Stock Funds ($215 mil AUM) Shareholder Activists (rare in banking) Small/Mid-cap Banks ($300 mil to $3.0 bil In Assets) $30 mil to $300 mil Market Caps . PL Capitals Richard Lashley and John Palmer Have Unique Experience & Skill Sets 4
Over the Past 18+ years PL Capitals Brand of Shareholder Activism and Investing has Generated Higher Returns with Lower Volatility Lashley and Palmer Often quoted in national banking publications 1980s and early 1990s: CPAs focused exclusively on the bank and thrift industry Early to Mid 1990s: Bank/Thrift M&A Financial Advisors 18+ years managing bank stock investment partnerships at PL Capital Significant Experience as Bank Directors Experts at shareholder activism, proxy contests, and corporate governance Reputations as substantive and serious professionals . Financial Edge Fund, LP Consistently Ranked Among the Best Performing Financial Sector Hedge Funds 5 Ranked among the Best Performing Hedge Funds in the Financial Services Sector: (Year 2013) #7 (Year 2012) #3 (Year 2011) #4 (Year 2010) #3 Source: Hedge fund performance as ranked by the BarclayHedge's database.
Topics 6 The Post-Financial Crisis Recovery Period Will be Among the 3 Best Periods to Invest in Bank Stocks in the Past 30 Years There Will be a M&A Boom Which Will Last for Another 3-5 Years A Simple but Elegant Formula to Estimate Small/Mid-cap Bank Stock M&A Values (hint: Its all about the cost saves) Actionable Ideas The Post-Financial Crisis Period Will be One of the 3 Best Times to Invest in Bank Stocks 7 DOWNTURN S&L Crisis 1989-1990 (14 months) -49% LTCM Crisis 1998-2000 (21 months) -27% Financial Crisis 2007-2009 (22 months) -82% RECOVERY 1990-1998 (7 years) +1,023% 2000-2007 (7 years) +153% 2009-Present (5 years+) +269% (so far) SNL U.S. Bank and Thrift Index Total Return
Bank Stocks are Cyclical--The Downturns are Sharp and Short While the Recoveries/Upturns are Longer Source: SNL Financial LC; Financial Crisis Recovery period defined as 3/6/09 to 2/28/14 The Banking Industry is in Much Better Shape Than Commonly Believed IT WAS WORSE in the RTC Period of the Early 1990s 8 Source: FDIC (www.fdic.gov) and SNL Financial, LC 1,484 1,575 1,406 1,109 1,492 1,426 1,063 572 318 193 117 92 84 79 94 114 136 116 80 52 50 76 252 702 884 813 651 467 204 262 470 534 382 271 181 50 15 8 6 1 3 8 7 4 11 3 4 0 0 3 25 140 157 92 51 24 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 N u m b e r
o f
I n s t i t u t i o n s
Year Number of "Problem" Banks Number of Failed Banks
Industry Fundamentals Are Almost Back to Pre-Crisis Levels
9 Banking Industry Aggregate Results 2013 2012
2011
2010
2009 2008 2007 2006 % Profitable 92% 90% 84% 78% 69% 75% 88% 92% ROA 1.07% 1.00% 0.88% 0.65% (0.08)% 0.03% 0.81% 1.28% ROE 9.56% 8.9% 7.8% 5.9% (0.8)% 0.4% 7.8% 12.3% NPAs/Assets 1.63% 2.20% 2.60% 3.11% 3.37% 1.91% 0.95% 0.50% Net Charge- Offs/ Loans 0.69% 1.10% 1.55% 2.55% 2.52% 1.29% 0.59% 0.39% Loan Loss Provision/NCOs 60% 70% 68% 84% 133% 175% 155% 109% Equity/Assets 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.0% 9.3% 10.4% 10.5% Source: FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile (www.fdic.gov) Despite the Rebound Since 2009 Small/Mid-Cap Bank and Thrift Stock Valuations Are Still Historically Attractive 10 Source: SNL Financial LC (1) Includes SNL U.S. Thrift $1B-$5B, SNL U.S. Thrift $500M-$1B, SNL U.S. Bank $1B-$5B, and SNL U.S. Bank $500M-$1B Avg. P/TBV (1992-2014) 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% Average Price/TBV of SNL Thrift Indexes and SNL Bank Indexes ($500Mil - $5Bil) 1
(12/31/92 - 2/28/14) Bank Stock Valuation Curve Small Caps and Large Caps Most Attractively Valued 11 Source: SNL Financial LC, as of 01/09/14 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Market Capitalization Asset Size Median Price/Tangible Book Value (TBV) % by: M e d i a n
P r i c e / T B V %
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 N u m b e r
o f
B a n k s
Year Number of U.S. Banks (1984-2013) The Banking Industry Has Been in a Secular Consolidation Wave for 30+ Years and Now There Will Be a Cyclical 3-5 Year M&A Boom 12 Source: FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile (www.fdic.gov) 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% - 100 200 300 400 500 600 A v g .
P r i c e / T a n g i b l e
B o o k
N u m b e r
o f
D e a l s
Number of Mergers Average Price/Tangible Book % 0% 2% 4% 6% There Will Be a Cyclical M&A Wave That Lasts for Another 3-5 Years 13 Source: SNL Financial LC and FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile (thru 3/24/14, using Announcement Date) *1/1/14 to 3/24/14 Annualized Ratio of Mergers Per Year to Total U.S. Banks/Thrifts Why Bank M&A Will Happen 14
Pent up supply of both sellers and acquirers due to lack of deals during the Financial Crisis Acquirers cant grow organically Smaller banks cannot cost justify remaining independent there is real economics in M&A due to large cost savings $3 billion in assets is the new $300 million Regulators want smaller banks to merge to establish appropriate risk management and compliance processes The FDIC is not granting new bank charters so the only entry to banking is to buy Mid-cap acquirers have stronger stock price currency to do deals (see page 11) Recent merger announcements have been at 30% to 150%+ market premiums which shows how undervalued these stocks are (see page 17) Both buyers and sellers stocks are going up on deal announcements Mergers of Equals (MOEs) are hot right now We expect double dips as the acquirers also sell after rolling up several acquisitions
Cost Save Adjusted M&A Multiples are Historically Attractive This Will Drive More Good M&A (Good for both buyer and sellers) Source: RBC Capital Markets presentation dated March 6, 2014 (using SNL Financial LC data) 9.8x 9.0x 13.3x 11.7x 13.5x 13.5x 12.6x 9.8x 8.0x 16.6x 14.8x 17.9x 17.6x 18.6x 19.2x 17.0x 13.1x 12.4x 12.2x 11.1x 14.7x 15.3x 15.4x 16.0x 15.9x 12.1x 10.1x 0x 2x 4x 6x 8x 10x 12x 14x 16x 18x 20x 22x 24x 26x 0x 2x 4x 6x 8x 10x 12x 14x 16x 18x 20x 22x 24x 26x Pre-2000 2000-2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008-2010 Post 2011 Median 79 14 32 35 24 41 37 12 52 Sample Size Includes transactions with deal values > $50 million and excludes targets with LTM ROAA < 0.25%. Cost Savings: Based on announced cost savings, assuming LTM noninterest expense base and tax-effected at 35%. Capital Adjustment: Purchase price adjusted for excess tangible capital above 8.0%, in which excess capital is removed from purchase price at 1.0x book value and earnings are adjusted assuming pre-tax opportunity cost of 2.00%.
15 A Simple but Elegant Way to Estimate a Banks M&A Value (the Cost Saves Drive M&A Value Even for Banks that Lose Money or Make Low Returns) 16 Can be obtained from Street estimates; if no Street estimates, use the run rate of net income to project the next 12 months Next Years Net Income Est. Tax Effected Cost Saves 10-11x PE Deal Multiple M&A Value Range + x = Most banks trade in the market well below this value!! Typically 25% for out of market deals and 35% for in-market deals; tax effect the cost saves before adding to the estimated net income Put a 10x to 11x PE ratio on those cost save adjusted earnings to get a range of M&A value (recent deals average 10xthis will increase over time) Caveats: This does not take into account extraordinary balance sheet adjustments (e.g. credit marks, interest rate marks) that might be necessary for banks with issues. Banks with significant excess capital and low earnings often sell for tangible book value (adjusted for extraordinary marks) plus a deposit premium rather than the above formula (in $millions) Year 1 Estimated Net Income M & A Cost Saves (35%) Year 1 Post Cost Saves Net Income Net Interest Income + 27.0 + 27.0 Credit Losses - 1.0 - 1.0 Noninterest Income + 13.0 + 13.0 Noninterest Expense - 33.0 11.6 - 21.4 Pretax Net Income + 6.0 + 17.6 Tax - 2.0 4.0 - 6.0 After Tax Net Income 4.0 7.6 11.6 x 10 = $116 mil x 11 = $128 mil E X A M P L E
Large Cost Saves Drive Attractive Merger Premiums As Shown by PL Capital Owned Positions Acquired in Mergers Since 2010 17
Date Announced Selling Bank ST Total Assets ($) Deal Price/Share ($) Fin. Edge Funds Average Cost ($)
Deal Price/TBV
1 Month Deal Premium 1
Deal Premium vs. Financial Crisis Low 2
6-14-13 BCSB Bancorp (BCSB)* MD 642 mil 23.77 12.79 138% +43% +260% 5-13-13 CFS Bancorp (CITZ)* IN 1.2 bil 10.49 3.25 102% +28% +500% 12-20-12 Roma Financial (ROMA) NJ 1.9 bil 15.00 9.03 212% +81% +55% 7-19-12 Fidelity Bancorp (FSBI)* PA 665 mil 22.85 6.21 147% +110% +353% 5-31-12 Beacon Federal (BFED) NY 1.0 bil 20.50 14.00 117% +55% +305% 5-1-12 Central Bancorp (CEBK) MA 523 mil 32.00 10.76 152% +77% +941% 3-12-12 North Central (FFFD)* IA 433 mil 30.58 12.51 100% +59% +217% 2-9-12 Heartland (HRTB)* IN 235 mil 9.72 6.88 96% +152% +224% 1-25-12 VIST Financial (VIST) PA 1.4 bil 12.50 8.76 117% +98% +150% 1-24-12 Indiana Comm. (INCB)* IN 1.0 bil 24.06 19.21 120% +63% +245% 12-5-11 SE Financial (SEFL) PA 307 mil 14.50 5.89 122% +245% +245% 6-20-11 Tower Bancorp (TOBC) PA 2.6 bil 28.00 21.38 142% +36% +53% 4-28-11 State Bancorp (STBC)* NY 1.6 bil 13.51 15.91 188% +30% +216% 4-19-11 BancorpRI (BARI)* RI 1.6 bil 48.25 34.76 193% +57% +211% Source: SNL Financial LC and PL Capital (1) % increase in stock price from one month prior to the deal announcement (2) % increase in stock price from the lowest price the stock traded for during the financial crisis Past performance and merger pricing/premiums do not guarantee future results or merger pricing/premiums. * PL CAPITAL 13D POSITIONS IN BOLD Banking Sector Activism is Robust Despite Only a Handful of Activists Such as PL Capital This Also Accelerates M&A 18 Source: J.P. Morgans Eye on the Market published February 18, 2014. Activist Events Spread Across Industries Percent of activist events, 1994-2013
Large Cap Bank Stock Investment Idea: TARP Warrants 19
TARP Warrants are an Attractive Way to Invest in Some of the Larger Banks
The 2008 TARP preferred issuances included warrants The Treasury has auctioned off several bank warrants which are now publicly traded (e.g. Capital One, Bank of America, PNC, Citigroup, Zions, Comerica, et. al.) Most of these warrants expire at the end of 2018 The warrants contain attractive anti-dilution protection for any dividends paid out in excess of dividend level paid when the TARP was issued The out of the money time premiums are very low, particularly compared to the likely growth in tangible book value and earnings through 2018
PL Capital Likes the JPM, COF and PNC Tarp Warrants the Most.
BAC, ZION and C Tarp Warrants are Less Attractive.
20 We Prefer the TARP Warrants of the Banks Noted Name Ticker Mkt. Cap (bils) Recent Price Price/TBV % Price/2014 EPS Price/2015 EPS Div. Yld. % M&T Bank MTB 16 $121.17 232 15.7 13.6 2.31 U.S. Bancorp USB 79 $43.42 301 13.7 12.6 2.12 KeyCorp KEY 13 $14.40 143 13.9 12.6 1.53 SunTrust STI 22 $40.38 153 13.3 12.3 0.99 Fifth Third FITB 20 $23.34 180 13.2 12.2 2.06 Regions RF 16 $11.11 148 13.0 12.1 1.08 BB&T BBT 29 $40.77 226 13.2 12.0 2.26 PNC PNC 46 $86.42 160 12.4 11.6 2.04 Wells Fargo WFC 258 $48.96 208 12.1 11.5 2.45 Bank of America BAC 182 $17.21 126 13.0 10.6 0.23 Capital One COF 43 $75.32 163 11.0 10.3 1.59 JPMorgan JPM 231 $60.93 152 10.3 9.6 2.49 Citigroup C 153 $50.30 90 10.3 8.7 0.08 21 TARP Warrants We Like X X X The JP Morgan (JPM) TARP Warrants (JPM.WS) Are Attractive 22 The current time premium in the warrant is only $2.50, which is extremely low for a 4 year warrant considering that JPMs tangible book value per share is projected to grow $24.00 (net of dividends) by October 2018. JPM Price (3-20-14) $60.11 Total Assets (trils) $2.4 Market Cap. (bils) $228 Shares o/s (bils) 3.8 2014 EPS Est. $5.92 Dividend Yield 2.5% JPM.WS Price (3-20-14) $20.15 Expiration Date 10-28-18 Strike Price $42.42 LTM Avg. Daily Volume 146,891 Projection Assumptions Stock and warrant price as of 3-20-14 2013 Operating EPS of $5.65 used as a baseline for EPS growth rate and Current Price/LTM EPS 2014-2018 EPS Growth Rate: 6% 2014-2018 Dividend Payout Ratio: 30% 2018 Price/Tangible Book Value (131%) shrinks vs. current Price/TBV (150%) 2018 Price/LTM EPS of 11.0x remains consistent with 10 year median (11.0x) and current (10.6x) No stock buybacks incorporated in TBV/share IRR noted above does not include any benefit from the anti-dilution excess dividend adjustment which for JPM would add approximately 2% to the IRR ROTEs remain fairly steady from 2013 (actual = 14%) and 2018 projected = 12%) JPM Tarp Warrant IRR Sensitivity Matrix (using a range of EPS growth rates and terminal 2018 PE ratios) 23 Note: Using PE rations to project the stock price in 2018 may understate the potential stock price and warrant value (IRR) in the no growth or negative growth scenarios because there will still be substantial TBV growth, which over time should increase the stock price and warrant value (IRR). The Capital One (COF) TARP Warrants (COF.WS) Are Attractive 24 The current time premium in the warrant is only $0.50, which is extremely low for a 4 year warrant considering that COFs tangible book value per share is projected to grow $30.00 (net of dividends) by November 2018. COF Price (3-20-14) $74.28 Total Assets (bils) $297 Market Cap. (bils) $43 Shares o/s (mils) 573 2014 EPS Est. $6.81 Dividend Yield 1.6% COF.WS Price (3-20-14) $32.64 Expiration Date 11-14-18 Strike Price $42.13 LTM Avg. Daily Volume 11,153 Projection Assumptions Stock and warrant price as of 3-20-14 2014-2018 EPS Growth Rate: 7% 2014-2018 Dividend Payout Ratio: 30% 2018 Price/Tangible Book Value (148%) shrinks vs. current Price/TBV (161%) 2018 Price/LTM EPS (11.0x) remains consistent with 10 year median (11.0x) and current (10.7x) No stock buybacks incorporated in TBV/share IRR noted above does not include any benefit from the anti-dilution excess dividend adjustment which for COF would add approximately 3% to the IRR ROTEs shrink from 2013 (actual = 15%) to 2018 (projected = 13%) COF Tarp Warrant IRR Sensitivity Matrix (using a range of EPS growth rates and terminal 2018 PE ratios) 25 Note: Using PE rations to project the stock price in 2018 may understate the potential stock price and warrant value (IRR) in the no growth or negative growth scenarios because there will still be substantial TBV growth, which over time should increase the stock price and warrant value (IRR). The PNC Financial (PNC) TARP Warrants (PNC.WS) Are Attractive 26 The current time premium in the warrant is only $4.00, which is extremely low for a 4 year warrant considering that PNCs tangible book value per share is projected to grow $31.00 (net of dividends) by December 2018. PNC Price (3-20-14) $86.63 Total Assets (bils) $320 Market Cap. (bils) $46 Shares o/s (mils) 533 2014 EPS Est. $7.03 Dividend Yield 2.0% PNC.WS Price (3-20-14) $23.40 Expiration Date 12-31-18 Strike Price $67.33 LTM Avg. Daily Volume 35,668 Projection Assumptions Stock and warrant price as of 3-20-14 2014-2018 EPS Growth Rate: 7% 2014-2018 Dividend Payout Ratio: 30% 2018 Price/Tangible Book Value (157%) consistent with current Price/TBV (160%) 2018 Price/LTM EPS increases to 13x (10 year median) from 11.7x currently No stock buybacks incorporated in TBV/share ROTEs remain fairly steady between 2013 (actual = 14%) and 2018 (projected = 12%) PNC Tarp Warrant IRR Sensitivity Matrix (using a range of EPS growth rates and terminal 2018 PE ratios) 27 Note: Using PE rations to project the stock price in 2018 may understate the potential stock price and warrant value (IRR) in the no growth or negative growth scenarios because there will still be substantial TBV growth, which over time should increase the stock price and warrant value (IRR).
Small-cap Bank Stock Investment Ideas:
28 1. Metro Bancorp, Inc. (METR) 1
2. Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) 2
3. Intervest Bancshares (IBCA) 3
(1) PL capital owns 5.2% of METR as of March 21, 2014 per schedule 13D. (2) PL capital owns 6.1% of HBNC as of March 24, 2014 (Schedule 13G position). (3) PL capital owns 7.4% of IBCA as of March 24, 2014 (Schedule 13G position). Metro Bancorp (METR) Investment Value Proposition Summary This former affiliate of Commerce Bank has a valuable deposit franchise in Central PA METR uses the Commerce Bank retail banking model (open 7 days a week; late hours; focus on checking accounts; high touch and high cost) Low interest rates have hurt EPS because they are geared for higher interest rates Numerous other banks want to buy METR, but have been rebuffed by METR; METR is instead pursuing new branches in the Philly suburbs METRs 70 year-old CEO owns 300,000 shares PL Capital believes the burden of proof is on METR to prove that growing rather than selling now would produce more shareholder value Est. Current M&A Value: $27-$30 (+ 32% to +47%) or greater 29 Key Facts Metro Bancorp, Inc. (METR) Total Assets $2.8 Billion Location Harrisburg, PA (Central PA) Common Shares Outstanding 14.2 million Market Cap $291 million Recent Stock Price $20.41 % Institutional Ownership 72% % Insider Ownership 8% Tangible Book Value/ Share $16.19 2014 EPS Est. $1.25 2015 EPS Est. $1.30 Div. Yield (%) 0.0% NPAs/Assets (%) 2.03% Source: SNL Financial, LC and PL Capital, LLC Metro Bancorp (METR) Central PA Footprint expanding into Suburban Philly 30 Source: SNL Financial, LC Metro Lags its Peers in Profitability 31 METR Peers 1
($1-$5 Bil in Assets) Return on Average Assets (%) 0.64% 0.88% Noninterest Expense/ Avg Asset (%) 3.3% 3.0% Loans/ Deposits (%) 78% 83% Avg. Earning Assets/ FTE $2.9 mil $4.4 mil Net Interest Income/ FTE $105,000 $162,000 Noninterest Income/ FTE $30,000 $37,000 Total Revenue/ FTE $135,000 $199,000 Efficiency Ratio (%) 73% 67% Source: SNL Financial, LC and Sterne Agee (1) Includes all publicly traded banks/thrifts in the U.S. between $1-$5 billion in assets (as of the last 12 months) Despite Lagging its Peers Metro Has a Valuable Franchise
Potential Acquirer (Ticker)
Cost Save % Deal Price to Cost Save Adj. 2014 EPS Acquirers Marginal EPS Accretion DEAL PRICE BUYER CAN PAY FNB Corp. (FNB) 30% 11x-12x 30%-40% $28.60 - $30.80 Fulton Financial (FULT) 35% 10x-11x 40%-50% $27.84 - $29.83 National Penn (NPBC) 35% 10x-11x 40%-50% $27.01 - $28.94 Susquehanna (SUSQ) 35% 10x-11x 20%-30% $27.98 - $30.32 Tompkins (TMP) 30% 10x-11x 30%-40% $26.53 - $28.57 Community Bank (CBU) 30% 11x-12x 60%-70% $27.35 - $29.06 Northwest (NWBI) 30% 10x-11x 100%-120% $26.10 - $28.70 WesBanco (WSBC) 30% 11x-12x 20%-30% $27.55 - $29.84 Likely Deal Price: $27 - $30 32 Source: PL Capital, LLC PL Capital Believes that One or More of These Buyers Would Pay More than These Projected Amounts Potential Acquirers Ability to Pay Even if Metro (METR) Delays a Sale the Projected M&A Values and IRRs are Attractive The upside potential and IRR 1 is attractive even if METR waits to pursue a sale (particularly if interest rates rise) METR believes they will grow loans >10% per year (without the need for a capital raise) If interest rates rise METRs EPS and TBV should exceed the amounts projected below 33 (1) IRR based upon a buy price of $20.41 (recent price) and a 6 month period between announcement and closing
(2) 2013 (Actual); 2014-2015 (street estimate); 2016-2017 (PL capital estimates); assumes no dividend paid or capital actions Deal Announce ment Date Projected TBV/Sh EPS Est. 2
PL Capitals Estimated METR M&A Value Upside Potential IRR 1
3/31/14 $16.49 $1.20 $28 +37% +74% 3/31/15 $17.70 $1.21 $30 +47% +29% 3/31/16 $18.99 $1.29 $32 +57% +20% 3/31/17 $20.39 $1.40 $34 +67% +16% 3/31/18 $22.04 $1.65 $36 +76% +13% Small-cap Bank Stock Investment Idea: Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) Potential R2000 Delete Worth Owning Whether They Get Deleted or Not Valuable, high performing bank in Indiana and Michigan Consistently ranked as one of the top performing community banks in the US One of only 6 Nasdaq or exchange listed banks between $1-$5 billion in assets that earned over 15% ROTCE in both 2012 and 2013, yet it trades at only 148% of tangible book value vs. 318% for the other 5 high performers (see page 36) Not widely followed by analysts or owned by institutional investors (excluding PL Capital, instl ownership is only 25%) HBNC has been a disciplined M&A acquirer which could become a M&A seller if they cannot continue to find growth Worth $30+ in a deal if they decide to sell PL Capital is supportive of HBNCs management and business model (13G positionPL Capital owns 6%) Buy HBNC regardless of whether it gets deleted from R2000 and add more if it gets deleted (at current prices HBNC is not likely to be deleted but that could change) 34 Recent Price Shares o/s Mkt. Cap. Total Assets Location 2013 EPS 2014 EPS Est. 2015 EPS Est. 12/31/13 TBV/ share Price/ TBV Div. Yield NPA % Avg. Daily Volume $21.83 8.6 mil $188 mil $1.8 Bil IN, MI $2.17 $1.94 $2.09 $14.94 146% 2.0% 1.2% 20,739 Source: SNL Financial, LC and PL Capital LLC From a Recent Horizon (HBNC) Presentation 35 Horizon (HBNC) is the Lowest Valued High Performing $1-$5 Bil Asset Bank in the U.S. 1
36 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 P r i c e / T B V
%
2012 and 2013 Average ROTCE % HBNC Price/TBV = 148% vs. 318% (average) for the Other High Performers Source: SNL Financial, LC and PL Capital LLC (1) Includes NASDAQ and exchange listed banks/thrifts between $1-$5 billion in assets with over 15% ROTCE in both 2012 and 2013 Horizon will likely not trade at the same levels as its high performing peers (average 318% TBV), but it should trade in line with other banks with similar ROTCEs. Horizons 2014 estimated ROTCE is 13%. Banks with 13% ROTCEs currently trade at approximately 180-200% TBV (or $27-$30 HBNC), a 24% to 37% increase from HBNCs recent price. Small-cap Bank Stock Investment Idea: Intervest Bancshares (IBCA) Potential R2000 Delete Worth Owning Whether They Get Deleted or Not Wholesale deposit gatherer and CRE lender with branches in NY and FL (lends in numerous states) One of only 6 Nasdaq or exchange listed banks that trade below 100% of tangible book value (IBCA=85%) out of all banks/thrifts with over $1.0 billion in assets and over 5% ROTCEs (n = 99) IBCAs net interest margin and EPS should continue to improve as higher cost deposits roll over, legacy credit costs subside and low yielding excess liquidity is invested in higher yielding loans Most of the NPAs are TDRs which will not have significant losses Equity capital is more than sufficient and TARP was repaid in 2013 No research analysts follow the company IBCA is a franchise that will likely not be sold nor will IBCA be an acquirer Family run/partially owned by Dansker family PL Capital is supportive of IBCAs management and business model (13G positionPL Capital owns 7.4%) Buy IBCA regardless of whether it gets deleted from R2000 and add more if it gets deleted The projected R2000 cutoff is approximately $165 million (IBCA market cap is approximately $163 million) 37 Recent Price Shares o/s Mkt. Cap. Total Assets Locations 2013 EPS 2014 EPS Est. (PL Capital) 12/31/13 TBV/ share Price/ TBV Div. Yield NPA % Avg. Daily Volume $7.42 21.9 mil $163 mil $1.6 Bil NY, FL $0.61 $0.65 $8.99 83% 0.0% 3.8% 54,295 Source: SNL Financial, LC and PL Capital LLC PL Capital Group 1
Contact Information and Description 38
John Palmer, Principal Rich Lashley, Principal Curt Thompson, Managing Director The PL Capital Group The PL Capital Group The PL Capital Group 47 E. Chicago Avenue 67 Park Place East 47 E. Chicago Avenue Suite 336 Suite 675 Suite 336 Naperville, IL 60540 Morristown, NJ 07960 Naperville, IL 60540 630-848-1340 973-539-5400 312-560-2675 630-848-1342 (fax) 973-539-5404 (fax) 630-848-1340 jpalmer@plcapitalllc.com rlashley@plcapitalllc.com cthompson@plcapitalllc.com
www.plcapitalllc.com (1) The PL Capital Group includes PL Capital, LLC; Goodbody/PL Capital, LLC; PL Capital Advisors, LLC; Financial Edge Fund, LP; Financial Edge-Strategic Fund, LP; Goodbody/PL Capital, LP; PL Capital/Focused Fund, LP; Richard Lashley and John Palmer; Lashley and Palmer are managing members of PL Capital LLC and Goodbody/PL Capital, LLC; PL Capital, LLC is the general partner of Financial Edge Fund, LP, Financial Edge-Strategic Fund, LP and PL Capital/Focused Fund, LP; Goodbody/PL Capital, LLC is the general partner of Goodbody/PL Capital, LP; PL Capital Advisors, LLC is the investment advisor to all four LPs