From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling

Subject: Warner continues to hold solid advantage in Virginia Senate race

Date: October 31, 2014
Public Policy Pollings newest Virginia poll finds that Mark Warners support remains steady in
the Virginia Senate race, and he is headed for a solid reelection victory on Tuesday.
Key findings from the survey include:
-Warner is at 49% to 40% for Republican Ed Gillespie and 5% for Libertarian Robert Sarvis.
Gillespie hasnt shown any ability to cut into Warners support the entire year- every poll weve
done in 2014 has found Warner at either 48 or 49%. Gillespie has only been able to gain 5 points
from 35% in April to his 40% standing now with just 4 days to go until the election.
-Warner has a 44/36 advantage with independents, and hes also winning 84% of the Democratic
vote, while only 80% of Republicans say theyll support Gillespie. Warner is also running up the
score with key constituencies- he has a 53/35 advantage with women and an 85/9 lead with
African Americans.
-Warner continues to be considerably more personally popular than his opponent. 51% of
Virginians have a favorable opinion of him to just 40% with an unfavorable one, some of the best
numbers for any Senate candidate in the country this cycle where voters are so down on most of
their candidates. Meanwhile Gillespie has a slightly negative overall favorability rating, with 43%
of voters rating him favorably to 44% with an unfavorable opinion.
PPP interviewed 937 likely voters on October 29th and 30th. The margin of error for the poll is +/3.2%. This survey was conducted on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters Action Fund.

Public Policy Polling

3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988

Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

Virginia Survey Results

Q1

The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat

Mark Warner, Republican Ed Gillespie, and
Libertarian Robert Sarvis. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Mark Warner ................................................... 49%

Q5

Woman ........................................................... 53%

Man................................................................. 47%

Q6

Ed Gillespie..................................................... 40%

Q2

Democrat ........................................................ 37%

Undecided....................................................... 6%

Republican...................................................... 31%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Mark Warner?

Independent / Other........................................ 32%

Q7

If you are white, press 1. If African-American,

press 2. If other, press 3.

Unfavorable .................................................... 40%

White .............................................................. 74%

Not sure .......................................................... 9%

African-American ............................................ 18%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Ed Gillespie?

Other............................................................... 8%

Favorable........................................................ 43%
Unfavorable .................................................... 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q4

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,

press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.

Robert Sarvis .................................................. 5%

Favorable........................................................ 51%

Q3

If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

In the last presidential election, did you vote for

Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama................................................ 48%

Q8

If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 11%
30 to 45........................................................... 21%
46 to 65........................................................... 41%
Older than 65 .................................................. 27%

Mitt Romney.................................................... 47%

Someone else / Don't remember .................... 6%

October 29-30, 2014

Survey of 937 likely voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

2012 Pres Vote

2012 Pres Vote

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Senate

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Warner Favorability

Mark Warner 49%

87%

12%

20%

Favorable 51%

83%

19%

45%

Ed Gillespie 40%

7%

76%

19%

Unfavorable 40%

12%

70%

29%

5%

11%

26%

Robert Sarvis

5%

3%

6%

22%

Undecided

6%

2%

6%

39%

Not sure

9%

2012 Pres Vote

Gender

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Gillespie Favorability
Favorable 43%

14%

74%

23%

Unfavorable 44%

73%

14%

46%

Not sure 13%

13%

12%

31%

Base Woman
Senate
Mark Warner 49%

53%

43%

Ed Gillespie 40%

35%

46%

Robert Sarvis

5%

6%

5%

Undecided

6%

6%

7%

Gender
Base Woman

Man

Gender
Man

Warner Favorability

Base Woman

Man

Gillespie Favorability

Favorable 51%

55%

47%

Favorable 43%

38%

48%

Unfavorable 40%

37%

44%

Unfavorable 44%

48%

40%

8%

9%

Not sure 13%

15%

12%

Not sure

October 29-30, 2014

survey of 937 likely voters

9%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Party

Party

Independent
Base Democrat Republican
/ Other
Senate

Base Democrat Republican

Independent
/ Other

Warner Favorability

Mark Warner 49%

84%

11%

44%

Favorable 51%

81%

17%

48%

Ed Gillespie 40%

Unfavorable 40%

16%

74%

36%

3%

8%

15%

10%

80%

36%

Robert Sarvis

5%

2%

4%

10%

Undecided

6%

4%

5%

10%

Not sure

9%

Party

Race

Independent
Base Democrat Republican
/ Other
Gillespie Favorability

Base

AfricanWhite American Other

Senate

Favorable 43%

18%

77%

39%

Unfavorable 44%

68%

15%

44%

Not sure 13%

15%

8%

17%

Mark Warner 49%

41%

85%

40%

Ed Gillespie 40%

49%

9%

27%

Robert Sarvis

5%

5%

2%

14%

Undecided

6%

5%

4%

19%

Race
Base

Race

AfricanWhite American Other

Warner Favorability

Base

AfricanWhite American Other

Gillespie Favorability

Favorable 51%

46%

75%

47%

Favorable 43%

49%

25%

22%

Unfavorable 40%

47%

15%

37%

Unfavorable 44%

40%

55%

52%

7%

11%

16%

Not sure 13%

10%

20%

26%

Not sure

October 29-30, 2014

survey of 937 likely voters

9%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Senate

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Warner Favorability
Mark Warner 49%

43%

45%

51%

50%

Favorable 51%

47%

49%

53%

51%

Ed Gillespie 40%

36%

38%

40%

43%

Unfavorable 40%

48%

41%

37%

41%

5%

11%

10%

7%

Robert Sarvis

5%

11%

6%

5%

2%

Undecided

6%

10%

11%

4%

5%

Not sure

9%

Age
Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Gillespie Favorability
Favorable 43%

50%

43%

40%

44%

Unfavorable 44%

41%

45%

46%

42%

Not sure 13%

9%

13%

14%

15%

October 29-30, 2014

survey of 937 likely voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988