The

Peoples Poll
The Peoples Poll
Na#onal Survey of Republican Voters
Supervised by: Caddell Associates, Inc.
Conducted by: EMC Research
January 4, 2015

Methodology
!

NaDonal Survey of 602 voters who are

Republican or voted for a Republican in the
2014 midterm elecDon

Interviews conducted using both landline and

cell phones December 26-30, 2014

Margin of Error 4.0 percentage points

Please note that due to rounding, percentages

may not add up to exactly 100%
Na#onal Telephone Survey
Of Republican Voters | 2

Key Findings
!

Republican voters are highly dissaDsed with the direcDon of the country and with President
Obama, and pessimisDc about the economy.

These voters are also very alienated from the poliDcal system feeling that leaders of both
parDes are working for special interests and that ordinary people have no voice.

This dissaDsfacDon does not have parDsan boundaries. Support for GOP leaders in Congress is
surprisingly low among Republican voters.

John Boehner holds only a 43% favorable raDng among Republican voters, and Mitch
McConnell has only a 38% favorable raDng among Republicans.

Fewer than half approve of the job being done by the Republican leadership.

A majority of voters feel Speaker Boehner has been ineecDve in Congress.

Only 1 in 4 voters feel that Boehner and McConnell should each be elected to their
leadership posiEons.

Indeed, only 16% of Republicans want BOTH Boehner AND McConnell elected to top
leadership and basically 53% want neither and prefer someone new.

Republican voters are unhappy with the decision by leadership to compromise with Obama on
funding the government during the lame duck session most feel the GOP should have used
its leverage to stand up to Obama.

Na#onal Telephone Survey

Of Republican Voters | 3

Tea Party Support

Over half of Republican voters consider themselves supporters of the Tea Party, almost
one-fourth are opposed and a surprising one-Ah are unsure.
Strong
supporter
Overall

Strong Rep. (46%)

Weak Rep. (22%)
Lean Rep. (32%)

Not strong
supporter
22%

22%

Not strong
opponent

35%

25%
14%

(Don't
know)

20%

36%
34%

17%
22%

Q54. Do you consider yourself to be a supporter or opponent of the Tea Party movement?

Total Total
Sup. Opp.

8% 57%

20%

13% 6% 62%

19%

48%

20%

7% 56%

22%

14%

19%
20%

35%

Strong
opponent

14%
15%

Na#onal Telephone Survey

Of Republican Voters | 4

Adtudes toward
Republican Leadership

Favorability
Less than half of Republican voters give Republican leadership favorable ra#ngs.
Strongly
favorable

John
Boehner

9%

Mitch
McConnell

7%

Somewhat
favorable

34%

31%

(Don't
know)

Somewhat
unfavorable

23%

39%

Q16-Q19. Im going to read you a list of names of individuals. Please tell me if you have a
strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable
opinion of each one. If youve never heard of one, please say so.

Total
Fav.

Total
Unfav.

43%

34%

5% 38%

23%

Strongly
unfavorable

23%

11%

17%

Na#onal Telephone Survey

Of Republican Voters | 6

Republican Leadership Job RaDng

Republican leaders have a net nega#ve job ra#ng among Weak and Lean Republicans.

Strongly
approve
Overall

Strong Rep. (46%)

Weak Rep. (22%)

Somewhat
approve
10%

36%

16%

Somewhat
disapprove
6%

42%

8%

Lean Rep. (32%) 4%

(Don't
know)

36%
28%

30%

5%
8%

8%

Strongly
disapprove
17%

28%
31%

33%

Q21. Would you say that you approve or disapprove of the job that Republican leaders in
Congress are doing? (If approve/disapprove: Do you strongly or somewhat approve/
disapprove?)

10%
17%
27%

Total
Apprv.

Total
Dis.

47%

47%

57%

38%

45%

48%

32%

60%

Na#onal Telephone Survey

Of Republican Voters | 7

Adtudes Towards Boehner

Most Republican voters think Boehner has been ineec#ve, and fewer than half think he has
the peoples interests at heart. Barely a majority trust him to ght for important issues.
Strongly
agree

Speaker Boehner has been

ineecDve in opposing
President Obamas agenda.

I trust House Speaker John

Boehner to ght for the issues that
are important to most Republicans.

House Speaker John Boehner has

the best interests of the American public
at heart, rather than special interests.

Somewhat
agree

29%

13%

9%

(Don't
know)

Somewhat
disagree

35%

39%

34%

12%

10%

13%

Q25-33. For each of the following statements, please tell me if you strongly agree,
somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree.

19%

23%

Strongly
disagree

Total Total
Agr. Dis.

64%

24%

18%

52%

37%

20%

44%

43%

15%

9%

Na#onal Telephone Survey

Of Republican Voters | 8

Support for ElecDng Current GOP Leaders

Only a quarter of GOP voters think Boehner and McConnell should remain Speaker and
Majority Leader. Three-Ahs want someone new rather than Speaker Boehner and
almost half want someone new rather than Senator McConnell.
Denitely
candidate

Probably
candidate

John
Boehner

11%

15%

Mitch
McConnell

10%

17%

(Don't
know)

15%

25%

Probably
someone else

34%

Denitely
someone else

26%

28%

Q23-Q24. As you may know the new Congress will select its leaders in January. If it were up
to you, would you elect John Boehner to con#nue as Speaker of the House or would you
elect someone new?

20%

Total Total
Cand. Else

25%

60%

27%

48%

Na#onal Telephone Survey

Of Republican Voters | 9

GOP Leadership Support SegmentaDon

Only sixteen percent of Republicans want BOTH Boehner and McConnell elected and forty
percent want someone new for Speaker and Majority Leader.

Oppose Both Boehner & McConnell

Don't Know/Someone New

40%
13%*

Don't Know on Both

11%

Support McConnell Not Boehner

11%

Support Boehner Not McConnell

Support Both Boehner & McConnell

10%
16%

*13% of voters didnt know about one of the Leaders (overwhelmingly McConnell) and voted
for someone new (the vast majority instead of Boehner) thus in reality 53% of Republicans
Na#onal Telephone Survey
basically want someone new in both posi#ons.
Of Republican Voters | 10

Reasons for VoDng

Republican and
ReacDons to the Budget
Compromise

Reasons for VoDng Republican

More than seven in ten Republican voters voted Republican to stop President Obamas agenda
and policies. However, a sizeable percentage of Republican Voters also want compromise.
Strongly
agree

Somewhat
agree

(Don't
know)

I voted for a Republican for

Congress to stop Obamacare.

58%

I voted for a Republican for

Congress to stop all of Obamas
agenda.

I voted for a Republican for

Congress to compromise with
President Obama.

47%
24%
20%

Strongly
disagree

Total
Agr.

Total
Dis.

16% 3% 9% 7% 81%

16%

17% 5% 11% 10% 75%

20%

10% 71%

26%

51%

43%

42%

53%

65%

I voted for a Republican for

Congress to stop President
Obamas amnesty for illegal
immigrants.

I voted for a Republican for

Congress to compromise with the
Democrats in Congress.

Somewhat
disagree

24%
28%

22%

5% 16%

5% 14%

Q34-38. For each of the following statements, please tell me if you strongly agree,
somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree. (Prompt if needed) Do you
strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with that
statement? (ASK Q34-38 ONLY IF VOTED FOR A REPUBLICAN IN Q4, CODE 2; n=515 ELSE
SKIP TO Q39) (RANDOMIZE)

2% 16%
27%
39%

Na#onal Telephone Survey

Of Republican Voters | 12

Stop Obama vs. Compromise

Responses to 5 ques#ons were combined to create a segmenta#on regarding voters
feelings toward Obamas agenda.
Oppose all Obama agenda: Oppose all of Obamas agenda and disagree with compromise
Oppose only immigraEon and/or Obamacare: Only oppose part of Obamas agenda; did
not vote to stop all of his agenda but they split on whether or not to compromise
Mixed oppose and compromise: Mix of agreeing that they voted for a Republican to oppose
Obamas Agenda and voted for a Republican to compromise
Compromise with Obama/Democrats: Compromise with Obama AND disagree that they
voted Republican to oppose any of Obamas agenda or policies
Oppose all
Obama agenda

34%

Oppose only
immigraDon and/or
Obamacare

16%

Mixed oppose
and compromise

47%

Compromise with
Obama/Dems

3%

Na#onal Telephone Survey

Of Republican Voters | 13

Federal Budget Funding

A majority of Republican voters disapprove of the compromise with the President and
Democrats to fully fund the federal budget.
Republican leaders in Congress recently decided to compromise with President Obama and
Democrats and fully fund the federal budget for the next ten months instead of wai#ng for
the new Congress in January. Do you approve or disapprove of this compromise?
Strongly
approve

Somewhat
approve

Overall

13%

28%

Strong Rep. (46%)

14%

26%

Weak Rep. (22%)

Lean Rep. (32%)

10%
16%

(Don't
know)
8%

6%

36%
24%

Somewhat
disapprove
21%

8%

30%

22%
10%
19%

Strongly Total Total

disapprove Apr. Dis.

32%
23%

21%
33%

41%

51%

39%

55%

46%

44%

40%

52%

*Three-khs of Tea Party Supporters (57%) disapprove of the compromise while one-third approve.
Among all others (43%) half support the compromise, while more than 4 in 10 disapprove.
Na#onal Telephone Survey
Of Republican Voters | 14

Federal Budget Funding

More than half of Republican voters thought Republican leaders should have taken the
opportunity to stand up to President Obamas policies including two-thirds of Tea Party
Supporters.
Republican leaders should have
used their negoDaDng leverage and
only agreed to a short term budget to
stand up to President Obamas policies

56%

Republican leaders did the right thing

by compromising on the funding for
the federal budget through September

(Dont know)

35%

9%

Q40. Thinking about this decision, which of the following statements comes closer to your
opinion? Please choose one even if its hard to decide. (RANDOMIZE 1-2 with OR)

Na#onal Telephone Survey

Of Republican Voters | 15

Federal Budget Fund SegmentaDon

Three-fourths of those who oppose all of Obamas agenda, and a majority of those who
oppose Obamas agenda and want some compromise believe the GOP should have used
the leverage for a short-term budget deal.
Oppose all
Oppose only
Mixed oppose
Obama agenda immgr and/or & compromise
(34%)
Obmcare (16%) (47%)

Compromise
with Obama/
Dems (3%)

Should have
used leverage
for a short-term
budget (56%)

75%

40%

51%

11%

Did the right

thing by
compromising
(35%)

19%

52%

39%

83%

Dont know/
Other (9%)

5%

8%

10%

6%

Q40. Forced Choice- Which comes closer to your opinion. Republican leaders should have
used their nego#a#ng leverage and only agreed a short-term budget to stand up to
President Obamas policies OR Republican leaders did the right thing by compromising on
the funding for the federal budget through September

Na#onal Telephone Survey

Of Republican Voters | 16

Dodd-Frank and Campaign DonaDons

Republican voters are divided on whether Dodd-Frank cuts and increased campaign
dona#on limits were compromise or an outrageous special deal.
As you may have heard, Congressional nego#ators met in private session and agreed to cut
some of the key provisions of the Dodd-Frank law, which prohibits abuses by Wall Street
banks. They also massively increased the limits on campaign dona#ons that rich donors can
give in poli#cs as well as other special benets for other favored interests. Which of the
following statements about this event comes closer to your opinion?

This is an outrageous special deal for big banks and Wall

Street special interests

44%

This is how compromise gets done in Washington and

its nothing new

(Dont know)

38%

18%

Na#onal Telephone Survey

Of Republican Voters | 17

Mood of Republican
Voters

DirecDon of Country
Almost nine in ten Republicans feel the country is headed in the wrong direc#on; op#mism
is lowest among Strong Republicans.
Right DirecDon
Overall

9% 4%

17%

Lean Rep. (32%)

10% 3%

Wrong track

87%

Strong Rep.
5% 4%
(46%)
Weak Rep. (22%)

(Don't know)

91%
5%

78%
87%

Q7. Do you feel that things in this country are generally going in the right direc#on or do
you feel things have goien preiy seriously o on the wrong track?

Na#onal Telephone Survey

Of Republican Voters | 19

Issue Importance
Republican Voters found the decit, na#onal debt, and na#onal security to be the most
important problems.
8-10 Very important problem

Mean

80%

The budget decit and the naDonal debt

8.66

Issues of naDonal security and military defense

72%

8.32

Government ethics and corrupDon

73%

8.30

Jobs and unemployment

63%

Government regulaDons and red tape

62%

7.90
7.78

The power of special interests in the government

55%

7.55

Hacking and cyber alacks by foreign governments

56%

7.50

Social issues like aborDon and same-sex marriage

39%

Q8-Q15. Im going to read you a list of issues. For each one, please tell me if this is an
important problem facing the country today. Use a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is not at all an
important problem and 10 is an extremely important problem.

6.01

Na#onal Telephone Survey

Of Republican Voters | 20

AlienaDon Adtudes
Republican voters feel alienated and feel that disconnected poli#cal elites who only care
about protec#ng their power are running the country.
Strongly
agree

Somewhat
agree

(Don't
know)

The power of ordinary people to control our country is gedng

weaker every day, as poliDcal leaders on both sides ght to protect
their own power and privilege, at the expense of the naDons well-
being.

69%

PoliDcal leaders are more interested in protecDng their power and

privilege than doing what is right for the American people.

People like me dont really have much say about how the
government works.

I hear news about the economy improving but my personal nancial

situaDon has not improved signicantly.

I am condent that future generaDons in the US will have beler

lives and a higher standard of living than we have today.

I believe the US government is working for the peoples best

interests.

Somewhat
disagree

64%
46%

26%

42%

28%

6% 17% 3%
3% 16% 2%

36%
29%

Q25-33. For each of the following statements, please tell me if you strongly agree,
somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree.

Strongly
disagree

Total Total
Agr. Dis.

6% 89%
20% 1%
4%

10%

4% 91%
26% 2%
3%

8%

2% 14% 12% 72%

26%

4% 15% 10% 70%

25%

38%
50%

23%

74%

19%

79%

Na#onal Telephone Survey

Of Republican Voters | 21