NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

October 2015
Iowa Questionnaire
Screener
<Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older?
Do you consider your permanent home address to be in Iowa?
HH SELECTION LANDLINE FRAME ONLY
GENDER GUESS
October 2015: Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%;
Residents: n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%; February 2015: Registered voters:
n=891, MOE +/- 3.3%; Residents: n=1012, MOE +/- 3.1%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as
president?
October 2015
July 2015
February 2015
REGISTERED VOTERS
September 2015
43
43
Approve
38
40
50
50
Disapprove
55
54
7
7
Unsure
8
6
100
100
Total
100
100
October 2015
July 2015
February 2015
RESIDENTS
September 2015
43
Approve
38
40
43
49
Disapprove
53
52
49
8
Unsure
8
7
8
100
Total
100
100
100
October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=431, MOE +/- 4.7%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=390, MOE +/- 5.0%; July 2015:
Potential Republican Electorate: n=342, MOE +/- 5.3%; February 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=320, MOE +/- 5.5%
If the 2016 Republican presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, whom
would you support if the candidates are (including those who are undecided
yet leaning toward a candidate):
October 2015
July 2015
February 2015
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
September 2015
NA
Donald Trump
24
29
17
6
Ben Carson
19
22
8
1
NA
Carly Fiorina
8
5
16
Jeb Bush
7
6
12
2
Ted Cruz
6
4
4
4
6
Marco Rubio
6
4
NA
Bobby Jindal
6
4
1
17
Mike Huckabee
5
3
7
7
Rand Paul
4
5
5
9
Chris Christie
4
2
2
NA
John Kasich
3
2
2
<1
5
Rick Santorum
1
1
1
<1
1
Lindsey Graham
1
<1
<1
<1
NA
George Pataki
<1
<1
<1
NA
Jim Gilmore
15
Scott Walker
NA
5
19
<1
4
Rick Perry
NA
3
14
14
Undecided
7
8
Total

100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Iowa October 2015; Page 1

100

100

100

October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=370, MOE +/- 5.1%; September
2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=328, MOE +/- 5.4%
Who is your second choice for the 2016 Republican presidential caucus in
Iowa (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate):
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE WITH A CANDIDATE
PREFERENCE
Ben Carson
Donald Trump
Carly Fiorina
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Ted Cruz
Rand Paul
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
Rick Santorum
Chris Christie
John Kasich
Lindsey Graham
George Pataki
Jim Gilmore
Scott Walker
Rick Perry
Undecided
Total

October 2015

September 2015

17
14
13
10
10
8
6
6
5
3
2
2
2
1
<1
NA
NA
3
100

21
12
6
4
9
6
3
4
4
2
2
3
1
1
0
11
2
8
100

October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/5.3%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=320, MOE +/- 5.5%
If the 2016 Democratic presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, whom
would you support if the candidates are (including those who are undecided
yet leaning toward a candidate):
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Lincoln Chafee
Undecided
Total

October 2015
47
36
4
1
<1
13
100

September 2015
48
37
4
2
1
8
100

July 2015
55
26
4
2
1
13
100

October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/- 5.3%; July 2015:
Potential Democratic Electorate: n=320, MOE +/- 5.5%; February 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=321, MOE +/- 5.5%
If the 2016 Democratic presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, whom
would you support if the candidates are (including those who are undecided
yet leaning toward a candidate and if Vice President Joe Biden enters the
race):
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Lincoln Chafee
Undecided
Total

October 2015
33
28
22
3
1
<1
12
100

September 2015
38
27
20
4
2
1
8
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Iowa October 2015; Page 2

July 2015
49
25
10
3
1
<1
11
100

February 2015
68
7
12
<1
1
NA
12
100

October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199,
MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/- 5.3%, Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%;
Residents: n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=320, MOE +/- 5.5%; Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/3.2%; Residents: n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Hillary
Clinton?
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

73
20
7
100
October 2015
35
59
5
100
October 2015

67
27
6
100
September 2015
32
61
7
100
September 2015

36
58
6
100

33
60
8
100

74
20
6
100
July 2015
37
56
7
100
July 2015
37
56
7
100

October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%;
Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/- 5.3%,
Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; Residents: n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Joe Biden?
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

October 2015

September 2015

75
17
9
100
October 2015
44
44
12
100
October 2015

74
17
10
100
September 2015
42
44
14
100
September 2015

44
42
15
100

41
42
17
100

October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199,
MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%,
Residents: n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=320, MOE +/- 5.5%; Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/3.2%; Residents: n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Bernie
Sanders?
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

65
16
19
100
October 2015
37
34
29
100
October 2015

65
14
21
100
September 2015
36
29
35
100
September 2015

54
15
31
100
July 2015
30
27
44
100
July 2015

36
33
31
100

34
28
38
100

28
26
46
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Iowa October 2015; Page 3

October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=431, MOE +/- 4.7%; Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199,
MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=390, MOE +/- 5.0%, Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%;
Residents: n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=342, MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/3.2%; Residents: n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Jeb Bush?
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

October 2015

September 2015

July 2015

49
39
11
100
October 2015
35
50
15
100
October 2015

49
37
14
100
September 2015
36
48
16
100
September 2015

51
33
16
100
July 2015
34
46
20
100
July 2015

35
48
17
100

34
46
19
100

32
46
22
100

October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=431, MOE +/- 4.7%; Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199,
MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=390, MOE +/- 5.0%, Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%;
Residents: n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=342, MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/3.2%; Residents: n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Donald
Trump?
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

52
42
6
100
October 2015
35
58
7
100
October 2015

58
33
9
100
September 2015
36
55
9
100
September 2015

34
58
8
100

36
55
9
100

October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=431, MOE +/- 4.7%; Registered voters:
n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Carly
Fiorina?
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

October 2015
57
16
26
100
October 2015
38
25
37
100
October 2015
35
25
40
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Iowa October 2015; Page 4

45
44
11
100
July 2015
32
60
8
100
July 2015
31
60
9
100

October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=431, MOE +/- 4.7%; Registered voters:
n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Ben
Carson?
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

October 2015
77
11
12
100
October 2015
50
22
27
100
October 2015
47
22
31
100

October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=431, MOE +/- 4.7%; Registered voters:
n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Marco
Rubio?
October 2015
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Favorable
54
Unfavorable
21
Unsure
25
Total
100
October 2015
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
34
Unfavorable
31
Unsure
35
Total
100
October 2015
RESIDENTS
Favorable
32
Unfavorable
30
Unsure
39
Total
100

September 2015
NA

July 2015
54
14
32
100
July 2015
31
32
37
100
July 2015
29
31
40
100

October 2015: Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; September 2015: Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1% February 2015: Registered voters:
n=891, MOE +/- 3.3%
If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if
the candidates are:
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
February 2015
REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
40
39
NA
48
Jeb Bush, the Republican
50
50
40
Undecided
9
11
12
100
Total
100
100
October 2015: Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%; September 2015: Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%
If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if
the candidates are:
October 2015
September 2015
REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
41
43
Donald Trump, the Republican
48
48
Undecided
11
9
Total
100
100
October 2015: Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%
If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if
the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
Carly Fiorina, the Republican
Undecided
Total

October 2015
38
52
10
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Iowa October 2015; Page 5

October 2015: Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if
the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Bernie Sanders, the Democrat
Jeb Bush, the Republican
Undecided
Total

October 2015
44
46
11
100

October 2015: Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if
the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Bernie Sanders, the Democrat
Donald Trump, the Republican
Undecided
Total

October 2015
48
43
9
100

October 2015: Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0%

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if
the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Bernie Sanders, the Democrat
Carly Fiorina, the Republican
Undecided
Total

October 2015
42
45
13
100

October 2015: Registered voters: n=1061, MOE +/- 3.0; Residents: n=1199, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%;
Residents: n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%; February 2015: Registered voters:
n=891, MOE +/- 3.3%; Residents: n=1012, MOE +/- 3.1%
Are you male or female?
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
February 2015
REGISTERED VOTERS
Male
48
48
49
48
Female
52
52
51
52
Total
100
100
100
100
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
February 2015
RESIDENTS
Male
49
49
49
49
Female
51
51
51
51
Total
100
100
100
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Iowa October 2015; Page 6