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Can Word - of - Mouth Predict The General Election Result?
Can Word - of - Mouth Predict The General Election Result?
UPDATE:
updated
figures
and
variations
will
be
highlighted
in
this
document
each
week
–
and
you
can
find
all
details
of
the
progress
of
the
experiment
at
our
site:
www.tweetminster.co.uk
Can
word-‐of-‐mouth
predict
the
General
Election
result?
A
Tweetminster
experiment
in
predictive
modelling
The
forthcoming
General
Election
is
probably
going
to
be
one
of
the
closest
in
recent
UK
history,
with
the
pollsters
suggesting
various
hung
parliament
and
minority
Labour
or
minority
Conservative
government
scenarios.
During
the
General
Election
campaign,
Tweetminster
is
conducting
an
experiment
around
whether
activity
on
Twitter
correlates
to
electoral
success.
Our
inspiration
for
this
experiment
comes
from
last
year’s
General
Election
in
Japan,
when
a
group
of
software
engineers
and
PhD
graduates
from
Tokyo
University
undertook
a
study
analysing
the
correlation
between
‘online
buzz’
and
election
results.
The
aim
of
the
study
was
to
assess
if
word-‐of-‐mouth
mentions
of
candidates
could
help
to
predict
which
ones
would
be
successful.
The
study
found
that
in
a
majority
of
constituencies
the
most
mentioned
candidate
won
the
seat
(see
References
below).
We
thought
it
would
be
interesting
to
run
a
similar
experiment
to
the
Japanese
study
in
the
UK
using
Twitter.
From
now
until
the
election
we
will
be
tracking
the
most
mentioned
(i.e.
posts
and
conversations
about)
constituencies
and
candidates
on
Twitter
and
using
this
data
we
will
try
to
map
the
correlation
between
buzz,
word-‐of-‐mouth
and
the
eventual
election
results
through
predictive
modelling.
Today,
to
kick-‐off
the
study,
we’re
publishing
a
starting
set
of
findings
and
the
methodology
that
we’ll
be
adopting.
This
paper
sets
out
the
initial
findings
of
our
experimental
model,
which
we
will
update
as
the
campaign
proceeds.
At
this
stage,
our
model
suggests
that
the
overall
election
result
could
see
a
small
Labour
majority
or
a
hung
Parliament,
with
the
closely-‐fought
contest
between
the
Liberal
Democrats
and
the
Conservatives
in
a
number
of
marginals
in
the
South
West
tilting
towards
the
Lib
Dems;
with
Labour
and
the
Liberal
Democrats
performing
better
in
London
than
recent
polls
have
shown;
with
declining
SNP
support
in
Scotland;
and
with
the
role
of
other
parties
in
key
seats
all
influencing
factors
in
shaping
our
predictions.
Our
data
set
is
fed
from
all
the
constituencies
represented
on
Twitter:
1. Constituencies
with
a
candidate
using
Twitter
2. Frequently
mentioned
constituencies
3. High
profile
constituencies,
i.e.
key
marginals
and
cabinet/shadow
cabinet
members’
constituencies
that
are
mentioned
on
Twitter.
1
The
study
will
be
a
dynamic
analysis
-‐
we
will
update
the
predictions
and
track
the
variations
in
predicted
election
results
as
polling
day
gets
closer,
allowing
us
to
see
if
the
passage
of
time
affects
any
significant
shifts
in
predicted
outcomes.
For
example:
Will
the
Leader’s
TV
debates
in
mid-‐April
make
a
difference
to
today’s
predictions?
As
discussion
intensifies
towards
the
election
we
expect
to
see
the
model
reflect
any
changes
in
the
balance
of
online
buzz.
Two
million
tweets
(and
counting)
are
being
processed
and
analysed
for
this
study.
The
data
set
will
be
updated
as
new
candidates
join
Twitter
during
the
course
of
the
campaign,
findings
and
variations
released
throughout
the
campaign
and
the
final
report
will
be
published
after
the
election.
Please
note
that
the
scope
of
this
exercise
isn’t
to
compete
with
polling
methodologies
-‐
it
is
an
experimental
study
that
aims
to
use
predictive
modelling
around
a
dynamic
data
set
to
determine
if
there
are
correlations
between
word-‐of-‐
mouth
on
social
media
and
election
results.
All
predictions
are
made
on
an
experimental
basis
and
the
reliability
of
the
method
for
predicting
election
results
will
be
assessed
once
the
study
is
completed.
National
top-‐line
figures
As
of
March
26th
April
2nd12th
18th
May
4th
2010
there
were
376
384
389
402
427
433
constituencies
represented
on
Twitter.
To
predict
the
top-‐line
national
figures
no
weighting
is
applied
-‐
we
count
the
most
mentioned
candidate
in
each
of
the
376
402
427
433
constituencies
analysed
–
giving
a
first
past
the
post
prediction
which
is
then
evenly
applied
to
the
UK
as
a
whole.
This
reveals
the
following
top-‐line
breakdown
based
on
frequency
of
mentions:
Conservatives
Labour
Liberal
Democrats
Others
34%
36%
35
33%
35%
33%
32%
30%
22%
23
28%
26%
9%
10
7%
9%
8%
(-‐
35%
35%
(nc)
30%
(nc)
27%
(+1)
1)
On
a
UNS,
this
would
translate
into
a
Labour
majority
of
c.14
seats
Labour
short
of
26
29
24
44
45
seats.
If
we
assume
a
similar
margin
of
error
of
the
Japanese
study,
the
range
of
results
for
the
whole
UK
suggested
by
these
numbers
give
us
various
hung
parliament
scenarios,
from
Labour
and
Conservatives
a
few
seats
short
of
a
working
majority
to
a
slim
Labour
majority
for
either
party.
The
full
analysis
behind
the
findings
is
presented
below,
following
constituency-‐level
predictions.
Constituency-‐level
modelling
For
constituency-‐by-‐constituency
predictions
the
only
weighting
that
we
will
apply
(to
the
frequency
of
mentions
analysis
above)
is
to
only
count
seats
where
at
least
2
one
candidate
from
the
three
major
parties
is
represented
and
mentioned
on
Twitter.
This
brings
down
the
number
of
constituencies
analysed
for
constituency
level
predictions
to
324
367.
Based
on
candidate
mentions
within
these
constituencies,
the
324
367
seats
would
be
distributed
in
the
following
way:
Conservatives
Labour
Liberal
Democrats
Others
126
148
131
138
135
151
142
138
54
55
83
79
77
10
9
11
12
14
seats
seats
seats
seats
Amongst
other
parties,
the
model
predicts:
• A
decline
in
SNP
support
• No
significant
change
in
Plaid
Cymru
support
• Strong
performances
for
the
Green
Party
in
Brighton
and
Norwich
• A
high
likelihood
of
a
Green
Party
MP
emerging
from
one
of
these
constituencies.
The
low
likelihood
of
an
Independent
MPs,
despite
a
couple
of
positive
performances.
The
key
battlegrounds
During
the
course
of
this
study
we
will
pay
close
attention
to
key
battlegrounds.
We
define
these
as
constituencies
where
the
difference
in
mentions
between
candidates
is
20%
or
less.
Several
initial
findings
of
interest
emerge
from
the
data
of
around
50
key
seats:
• An
important
number
of
seats
are
being
closely
contested
in
the
South
West
between
the
Conservatives
and
the
Liberal
Democrats.
The
metrics
adopted
in
this
study
show
that
in
many
of
these
seats
the
Liberal
Democrats
are
generating
greater
buzz.
This
buzz
figure
supports
the
strong
Lib
Dem
seat
prediction
in
the
top-‐line
figures
above.
However,
it
is
worth
pointing
out
that
the
Lib
Dems
have
a
proportionately
higher
number
of
their
MPs
on
Twitter
compared
to
the
Conservatives
which
probably
means
the
actual
results
will
be
lower
than
predicted
for
the
Lib
Dems
and
commensurately
higher
than
predicted
for
the
Conservatives
in
these
seats.
Our
data
indicates
that
target
seats
represented
on
Twitter
include
Chippenham,
Mid
Dorset
&
North
Poole,
South
West
Norfolk
and
South
East
Cornwall.
• Brighton
Kemptown,
Brighton
Pavillion,
Luton
South,
Manchester
Withington,
North
Warwickshire,
Norwich
North,
Norwich
South,
South
Derbyshire,
Cambridge,
Gravesham,
Lancaster
&
Fleetwood,
Rochford,
Southend
East
and
Lancaster
&
Fleetwood
are
the
seats
on
Twitter
showing
the
narrowest
margins
between
the
various
parties
contesting
them.
This
indicates
that
they
are
the
ones
where
the
parties
are
most
actively
campaigning.
The
data
for
these
constituencies
would
also
indicate
strong
performances
for
the
Green
Party
in
Brighton
and
Norwich.
3
• Data
for
Scotland
anticipates
a
decline
in
recent
SNP
support
and
a
number
of
Labour
and
Liberal
Democrat
constituencies
targeted
by
the
Conservatives.
The
SNP
held
Angus
seat
will
be
a
race
to
watch.
• The
data
indicates
that
the
Conservatives
will
perform
positively
in
the
East
Midlands
with
several
Labour
and
Liberal
Democrat
seats
swinging
their
way.
We
are
expecting
a
close
race
in
Lincoln.
• We
predict
that
Labour
and
the
Liberal
Democrats
will
perform
better
in
London
than
recent
polls
have
shown.
However
indicators
show
strong
Conservative
campaigns
in
Bexley
Heath
&
Crayford,
Brentford
and
Isleworth,
and
Ealing
Central
&
Acton.
• The
data
doesn’t
suggest
any
surprises
or
significant
changes
in
Wales
and
the
East
of
England.
In
summary
-‐
our
data
indicates
that
the
following
campaigns
-‐
1)
Conservative-‐Liberal
Democrat
contested
seats
in
the
South
West
2)
Labour
and
the
Liberal
Democrats’
performance
in
Scotland
3)
Other
parties,
especially
the
Greens
and
SNP
in
target
seats
-‐
are
the
decisive
factors
in
shaping
our
predictions
and
possibly
the
General
Election
result.
The
top-‐influencers
The
following
table
lists
the
10
most
influential
electoral
candidates
on
Twitter.
(NB.
Only
MPs
and
PPCs
are
included
in
our
study,
not
high
profile
influencers
like
the
Mayor
of
London
or
the
Prime
Minister’s
wife).
Influence
is
calculated
through
a
ratio
score
between
the
frequency
of
mentions
vs.
number
of
personal
tweets.
This
number
is
then
weighted
over
a
set
period
of
time
to
take
into
account
the
fact
that
each
candidate
signed
up
to
Twitter
at
different
times
and
therefore
have
different
total
volumes
of
mentions
and
tweets.
As
mentions
is
a
clear
indication
of
reach
and
public
engagement
we
believe
it
is
also
a
reasonable
metric
to
indicate
influence.
Tom
Watson
Labour
West
Bromwich
East
Nick
Clegg
Liberal
Democrats
Sheffield
Hallam
Eric
Pickles
Conservatives
Brentwood
&
Ongar
David
Miliband
Labour
South
Shields
Douglas
Alexander
Labour
Paisley
&
Renfrewshire
South
Jeremy
Hunt
Conservatives
South
West
Surrey
Hariett
Harman
Labour
Camberwell
&
Peckham
4
Ed
Balls
Labour
Normanton
Vince
Cable
Liberal
Democrats
Twickenham
Louise
Bagshawe
Conservatives
Corby
The
updated
list
after
5
weeks,
shows
the
revised
order:
Nick
Clegg,
Tom
Watson,
Eric
Pickles,
David
Miliband,
William
Hague,
Vince
Cable,
Douglas
Alexander,
Jeremy
Hunt,
Ed
Balls,
Dr
Evan
Harris.
Initial
Conclusions
Week
1
prediction:
based
on
the
376
constituencies
modelled
a
small
Labour
majority
appears
the
most
likely
result.
Week
2
prediction:
based
on
384
constituencies
modelled
Labour
short
of
26
seats
is
predicted.
Constituencies
which
are
displaying
interesting
trends
this
week
include:
Hampstead
&
Kilburn,
Chippenham,
Morley
and
Outwood,
Glasgow
Central,
Mid-‐Dorset
&
North
Poole,
Manchester
Withington,
Stourbridge,
Sutton
&
Cheam,
Westmorland
&
Londsdale,
Brentford
&
Isleworth,
Luton
South
and
Brighton
Kemptown.
Week
3
prediction:
based
on
389
constituencies
modelled,
Labour
short
of
29
seats
is
predicted.
Week
4
prediction:
based
on
402
constituencies
modelled,
Labour
short
of
24
seats
is
predicted.
Week
5
prediction:
based
on
427
constituencies
modelled
–
Labour
short
of
44
seats
is
predicted.
Final
prediction:
based
on
433
constituencies
modelled
–
A
hung
parliament
with
Labour
or
Conservatives
short
of
seats
is
predicted.
We
will
keep
track
of
the
data
and
metrics
outlined
in
this
document
over
the
weeks
covering
the
election
campaign
and
will
release
updated
results
and
analysis
during
the
course
of
the
campaign.
Following
the
elections
we
will
compare
the
predictions
against
results
and
present
the
completed
study
measuring
the
success
(or
lack
of
it)
for
the
predictive
modelling
approach
we
have
developed.
We
will
also
release
all
the
data
used
for
this
study,
including
a
constituency-‐by-‐constituency
comparison
between
predictions
and
results.
While
we
have
an
accuracy
rate
benchmark
from
a
similar
study
in
Japan,
we
are
keen
to
stress
that
this
study
is
an
experiment
into
predictive
modelling
and
we
cannot
claim
at
this
stage
the
level
of
accuracy
achieved
in
other
studies.
5
The
main
goal
of
the
Tweetminster
experiment
is
to
compare
mentions
and
word-‐of-‐
mouth
on
Twitter
with
election
results
to
determine
if
a
correlation
between
the
two
exists.
References
The
Japanese
study
can
be
found
here:
http://translate.google.com/translate?js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-‐
-‐-‐%208&layout=1&eotf=1&u=http://senkyo.kakaricho.jp/report1.html&sl=ja&tl=en
-‐
translated
using
Google
Translate.
About
Tweetminster
Established
in
December
2008,
Tweetminster
is
a
media
utility
that
aims
to
make
UK
politics
more
open
and
social.
You
can
use
Tweetminster
to:
• Find
and
follow
MPs
and
PPCs
on
Twitter:
http://tweetminster.co.uk/
• Access
curated
lists
of
relevant
news,
commentary
and
politicians
http://twitter.com/tweetminster
• Measure
the
pulse
of
UK
politics
in
real
time:
dynamically
analyse
and
make
sense
of
information
and
data
around
political
conversations
and
news
stories:
http://search.tweetminster.co.uk/pages/about
Find
out
more:
www.tweetminster.co.uk
-‐
Follow
us
on
Twitter:
www.twitter.com/tweetminster
-‐
We’d
love
to
hear
your
feedback
and
thoughts
-‐
get
in
touch:
wire@tweetminster.co.uk
6