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Market Update 18 July 10
Market Update 18 July 10
Market Update 18 July 10
“y” This wave count highlighted last week would certainly be the count that achieves that bigger
right shoulder. This model EASILY takes the S&P back to 1150 because a (B)-Wave here
must retrace 60-80% of the (A) Wave. Unfortunately, because of the structure of the waves
down, the precise wave count is impossible to know with any certainty.
b
(B)
“c”
“x” REPRINTED from 7/11/2010
c
a
“a”
a
b
a
b
c
“w” “b”
c
“y”
( A )?
“y” The predictions of this model have been pretty good so far, so we’ll just keep with it. The “a”
wave definitely has the “look” of an impulse, which suggests it was just the initial wave
higher. If that’s correct, then this “b” wave should find support before (or into) the 1032-1040
zone. The early July lows should hold under this model. The “b” wave should last a few
b weeks before we see the “c” wave.
(B)
“c”
“x”
c
a “a”
a
a b
b
c “b”
“w”
c
“y”
( A )?
1130
1103
1080
1054
1040
1100
1089
1054
1040
(C)
869
(X)
The medium term wave count might look something like this one. An intermediate (B) here
MUST last until at least September. Perhaps we see generalized “liquidation” through the end
of the year that carries over into 2011. This sort of setup would look VERY similar to the way
2007 ended when the market peaked in October.
667
-W-
869
(X)
This would have to be the model that finished the entire advance from the 667 lows. Because
of how treacherous it has been attempting to call “the top,” I won’t do so now. However, given
the time of the year (“Sell in May and Go Away”) and the fact that this market has rallied so
unrelentingly, it would seem to be ripe for at least a robust correction.
667
-W-
-B-
(Y)
“a” “c”
(W)
“e”
REPRINTED from 5/2/2010
“b”
“a” “c” (X)
“d”
“b”
Left
Shoulder
Right
Shoulder
b
Head
-2-?
-1-?
-4-?
-3-?
-5-
There’s actually a decent smaller scale H&S which was activated on the Dollar c
Index at 85.00. This pattern targets 81.50. Highlighted here is the wave model “e”
that could certainly take the DXY to 81.50s. (B)
Left
Shoulder
Right
Shoulder
b
Head
d
a
c f
e
g
“e”
(B)
The move down from 88.71 does not yet have a “completed” look and it’s now developing in an “odd” way. It makes me
believe we’re seeing one of those “bow tie” shaped seven-legged corrections that Neely has dubbed “diametrics.” The H&S
target here was 81.50 and that level still seems within reach. Longer term the picture remains bullish the DXY, but it looks
like we have several more trading days before completing the wave lower.