Market Update 18 July 10

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S&P 500 Sep e-Minis ~ (120 min.

“y” This wave count highlighted last week would certainly be the count that achieves that bigger
right shoulder. This model EASILY takes the S&P back to 1150 because a (B)-Wave here
must retrace 60-80% of the (A) Wave. Unfortunately, because of the structure of the waves
down, the precise wave count is impossible to know with any certainty.
b
(B)
“c”
“x” REPRINTED from 7/11/2010
c

a
“a”
a
b
a

b
c
“w” “b”

c
“y”
( A )?

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


S&P 500 Sep e-Minis ~ (120 min.)

“y” The predictions of this model have been pretty good so far, so we’ll just keep with it. The “a”
wave definitely has the “look” of an impulse, which suggests it was just the initial wave
higher. If that’s correct, then this “b” wave should find support before (or into) the 1032-1040
zone. The early July lows should hold under this model. The “b” wave should last a few
b weeks before we see the “c” wave.

(B)
“c”
“x”
c

a “a”
a

a b

b
c “b”
“w”

c
“y”
( A )?

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


S&P 500 Sep e-Minis ~ (240 min.)
The market easily sliced through the 1044 resistance point highlighted last
weekend, which allowed the market to “pivot” to the next level of resistance.
Highlighted here are the support and resistance points of the S&P futures.
1054 becomes first level of support for bulls with 1040 becoming more solid
support. First resistance at 1080 is nearby for the bears, a break of which
should send the market to 1103 if not 1130.

1130

1103

1080

1054

1040

REPRINTED from 7/11/2010

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


S&P 500 Sep e-Minis ~ (240 min.)
After breaking our first level resistance at 1080, the market found serious trouble into
the second resistance level of 1103, reversing at a high of 1099.25. First and second
levels of support remain unchanged for this week. A break below 1054 should cause
the futures to swing down to 1040 which should be a good support as the 61.8%
retracement and a classical chart pivot. 1089 and 1100 are first and second level
resistance points for this week, breaks of which should send the market even higher.

1100

1089

1054

1040

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


-X-
S&P 500 Daily (Z)
“y”
1205
(Y) (B)
“y” “w” “c”?
c Sept-Oct?
“x” “x”
“w” a
g “a”?
e
b
c
(X)
a “b”?
“w”
1034
f “y”
“x”
(W) d (A)
b

(C)
869
(X)

The medium term wave count might look something like this one. An intermediate (B) here
MUST last until at least September. Perhaps we see generalized “liquidation” through the end
of the year that carries over into 2011. This sort of setup would look VERY similar to the way
2007 ended when the market peaked in October.

667
-W-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


-X-
S&P 500 Daily ~ A “Triple” Finally Concluded? (Z)
(Y) “y”?
“y”
c “w”
“w” a “x”
g
e
b
c
a (X)
1034
f
d
“x”
(W)
b

REPRINTED from 5/2/2010

869
(X)

This would have to be the model that finished the entire advance from the 667 lows. Because
of how treacherous it has been attempting to call “the top,” I won’t do so now. However, given
the time of the year (“Sell in May and Go Away”) and the fact that this market has rallied so
unrelentingly, it would seem to be ripe for at least a robust correction.

667
-W-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


S&P 500 Weekly - Alternative
This would be alternative count. It’s taken from the conclusions that Glenn Neely
has reached. Essentially it calls for more time before the Primary - B - wave
< B >? finally concludes. He would probably be the first to admit, though, that the “a”
wave high might not be bettered during the (Y) wave. I still have some doubts
about this model: I don’t like how big the “e” wave is within (W) and I don’t like
741 as the conclusion of the pattern lower. However, Neely makes a lot more
< B >? money than me and he’s been doing it a lot longer, so who am I to argue?

-B-
(Y)
“a” “c”

(W)
“e”
REPRINTED from 5/2/2010
“b”
“a” “c” (X)

“d”

In practical terms, this count and the one on the


741 previous page are actually not very different.
-A-

“b”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


“d”
Dollar Index (180 min) e
88.71

Left
Shoulder
Right
Shoulder
b

Head
-2-?

-1-?
-4-?

-3-?

-5-
There’s actually a decent smaller scale H&S which was activated on the Dollar c
Index at 85.00. This pattern targets 81.50. Highlighted here is the wave model “e”
that could certainly take the DXY to 81.50s. (B)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


“d”
Dollar Index (180 min) e
88.71

Left
Shoulder
Right
Shoulder
b

Head

d
a

c f

e
g
“e”
(B)

The move down from 88.71 does not yet have a “completed” look and it’s now developing in an “odd” way. It makes me
believe we’re seeing one of those “bow tie” shaped seven-legged corrections that Neely has dubbed “diametrics.” The H&S
target here was 81.50 and that level still seems within reach. Longer term the picture remains bullish the DXY, but it looks
like we have several more trading days before completing the wave lower.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any


kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is Wave Symbology
NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s "I" or "A" = Grand Supercycle
interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not I  or A  = Supercycle
trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions <I>or <A> = Cycle
opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information -I- or -A- = Primary
contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author (I) or (A) = Intermediate
believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to "1“ or "a" = Minor
the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for 1  or a  = Minute
information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and -1- or -a- = Minuette
is not for everyone. (1) or (a) = Sub-minuette
[1] or [a] = Micro
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro
has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and
options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND
RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or
options contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford
to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts and
your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should
understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by
thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is
required to give you.

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