6 (IJCNS) International Journal of Computer and Network Security,

Vol. 2, No. 4, April 2010

Markov Based Mathematical Model of Blood Flow

Pattern in Fetal Circulatory System
Sarwan Kumar 1 , Sneh Anand 2 , Amit Sengupta 3
1
Dr B R Ambedkar National Institute of Techmology,
Jalandhar -144011 ,Punjab,India
pahujas@gmail.com

2
Indian Institute of Techmology
CBME Delhi, India
3
Indian Institute of Techmology
CBME Delhi, India

During the time of pregnancy it can be found that the

Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach to estimate
blood flow characteristics in the fetal circulatory system during
pregnancy. We have developed a mathematical model of the
fetal circulatory system by taking two nodes concept based on
Markov model. As the oxygenated blood flows from mother side
through placenta to fetus and deoxygenated blood from fetus to
mother via umbilical cord. When it is simulated, the model
shows how the oxygenated blood flows from placenta (one node)
to the umbilicus (second node) and deoxygenated blood to
placenta from the fetus. Also the same model is simulated at
different conductivity path of the umbilical cord and available
blood supply at placenta. Also it shows the effect of uterine
contractions on the blood supply to the fetus. All simulations
have been performed in the Lab VIEW environment at various
conditions of vein and arteries.
Keywords: Markov model, placenta, umbilicus cord,
mathematical model, uterine contraction.
1. Introduction
The baby develops in the uterus with a life support system
for the fetus and is composed of umbilical cord, placenta
and amniotic fluid. The placenta is a pancake shaped
temporary organ which is attached to the uterus and is
connected to fetus through the umbilical cord. The umbilical
cord is the lifeline between the fetus and placenta. As soon it
is formed it functions throughout pregnancy to protect the
vessels that travel between the fetus and the placenta. The
responsibility of the placenta is to act as a point of trade
between the circulatory system of the mother and the baby.
It is very important to know the relationship between
concentration (quantity) of blood available at placenta and
how quickly it passes to fetus through vein, the only path to
carry good blood to fetus from mother and the waste
products of the fetus are transferred to the mother’s blood
through umbilical arteries. Therefore the umbilical cord is
called the life line and it is through this cord that the
placenta and the fetus are attached to each other. There are
three blood vessels in the umbilical cord, two small arteries
and a vein [10]. This cord can grow to a length of 50-60 cm
which allows the baby to have enough space to move safely
without damaging the placenta or the umbilical cord. The
placental conductivity increases with the age of pregnancy
[8]. Complete circulatory system is shown in figure 1.
umbilical cord is in the form of a knot or at times this cord
is wrapped around the body of the baby. This is a common
phenomenon and there is no prevention for this. This does
not pose any risk or threat to the baby or the mother. There
may be some complications of the placenta due to pregnancy
the most common of which is placenta previa [10]. In this
the placenta is attached over or near the cervix. With the
growth of the fetus there is pressure on the placenta and due
to this reason there may be bleeding [11]. If this condition
occurs there is need for medical care so that one can be
ensured of a safe labor for the baby. Due to many
complications there may be decrease in blood supply to fetus
which leads to asphyxia and increase in heart rate [12].
Hence compromise of the fetal blood flow through the
umbilical cord vessels can have serious deleterious effects on
the health of the fetus and newborn. There for, it is
necessary to know the blood profile in the fetus. This paper
discuss about a novel mathematical model for the
circulation of blood in the fetal circulatory system by taking
two node concept based on Markov model [4] to know how
the blood profile. The same model is simulated at various
conductivities of the blood vessels and available blood at
placenta. We have also demonstrated the effect of uterine
contractions on the blood profile which would be useful to
assist in developing a new bioelectric sensor for the
evaluation actual blood flow time.
2. Markov Model
A Markov model is a stochastic process whose dynamic
behavior is such that its future development depends only on
the present state space. In other words, the description of the
present state fully captures all the information that could
influence the future evolution of the process. Being a
stochastic process means that all state transitions are
probabilistic. At each step the system may change its state
from the current state to another state (or remain in the
same state) according to a probability distribution. The
changes of state are called transitions, and the probabilities
associated with various state-changes are called transition
probabilities. In other words, the description of the present
state fully captures all the information that could influence
the future evolution of the process. In order to formulate a
Markov model we must first define all the mutually
 (IJCNS) International Journal of Computer and Network Security, 7
Vol. 2, No. 4, April 2010

exclusive states of the system. The state of the system at t =0

are called the initial states (P0), and those representing a (5)
final or equilibrium state are final stage (P1). The set of
Markov state equations describes the probabilistic transition Similarly
from the initial to final states.
The transition probabilities must obey the following two (6)
rules:
1 The probability of transition in time ∆t from one The final solution of equation’s 5 and 6
state to another is given by gain into ∆t.
2 The probabilities of more than one transition in P0(s) = p0(s+u1 + u2) - p1(u1 + u2)/ (s+ gv)(s+ u1 +
time are infinitesimals of higher order and can be u2)- g v (u1 + u2)
neglected. (7)

3. Proposed Model
Figure 1 presents the complete fetal circulatory system and
its equivalent Markov chain in figure 2. The mostly (8)
problems related to node Ia are Intrauterine Growth
Restriction (IUGR) and preeclampsia [5 ]. These are due to And
high blood pressure, diabetes, infection, kidney disease, P1(s) = p1(s+ gv) + gv p1/(s+ gv)(s+ u1 + u2)- gv (u1 +
heart or respiratory disease, alcohol, drugs and cigarette u2) (9)
smoking ( figure 3) which may lead to fetal hypoxia, fetal
death, low birth weight, placenta abruption (figure 4)[5]. P1(t) = (p1- p0)gv / (u1 + u2 )+ p1 (u1 + u2 - gv )/
The problems related to Umbilical Cord i.e. node II are two (u1 + u2 )e- (u1 + u2) t (10)
vessels, long cord, nuchal cord and short cord figure 5. The
node Ib and node III are less significant in fetal circulation
and are ignored. The modified nodes representation of the
fetal circulation system and is equivalent signal flow graph
is shown in figure 6. In term of mathematical model as
described by the Markov Model [7], node I represents full of
oxygen rich blood toward mother side and node II represents
the fetus side. Umbilicus cord connects the two nodes.

There are two stages:

Stage 1: Placenta attached to the mother side, say node I,

full of oxygen

Stage II: Umbilicus, the entering point to fetus, say node II

Let us P0(t) the quantity of the good blood at node 1

P1(t) the quantity of blood reaches at node II through vein
gv the conductivity gain of the vein
u1 the conductivity gain of the artery1 Figure 1. Fetal Circulatory System
u2 the conductivity gain of the artery2

After ∆t the blood at node I and node II is given by

(1)

P1(t+∆t) = P1(t) (1- u1 ∆t) + P1(t) (1- u2 ∆t) + P0(t) gv ∆t

(2)

From equation 1 and 2

Figure 2. Fetal Circulatory System in nodes representation

P0(t+∆t) - P0(t) = - P0(t) gv ∆t + P1(t)( u1 + u2) ∆t (Node Ia Uterine Artery, Node Ib Placenta, Node II
Umbilical Cord, Node III Fetal Heart)
(3)
P0(t+∆t) - P0(t)/ ∆t = - P0(t) gv + P1(t)( u1 + u2) (4)
8 (IJCNS) International Journal of Computer and Network Security,
Figure 3. Problems related to node Ia and their causes
Figure 4. Problems to fetus due to Intrauterine Growth
Restriction (IUGR) and Preeclampsia
Figure 5. Problems related to node II (Umbilical Cord)
4. Simulation and analysis
The software is designed in LabVIEW and simulated at
different levels of P0, P1 ,gv ,u1 and u2 . When equation 8 is
simulated for various values of conductivities of vein ( gv)
and two arteries (u1 , u2 ), we got the exponential curve.
The response of the P0(t) is shown in figure 7 at gv unity or
100% conductivity. This indicates that the blood transfer
from mother side placenta to fetus through vein having
100% conductivity at the start of the process. This indicates
that the blood takes 4 second to reach to fetus. This
exponential curve due to simulation is same as the current
discharge through capacitor and register which has already
been established in tissue impedance characterization [3],
Vol. 2, No. 4, April 2010
[4]. Here tissue is represented by capacitor in parallel with
resistance as shown in figure 8 [8 ] This time increases as
the conductivity (gv ) decreases because of knot or some
other reasons as shown in figure 9 where the time is
approximately 10 seconds. This may leads to the child a
number of dangerous effects (depression of the central
nervous system, breathing paralysis, etc.).
Figure 6. Actual system and Equivalent Markov Signal
Flow Graph
This will increase further if the contractions are more [1].
The quantity of the blood supply from the mother is highly
affected the uterine contractions. Because the contractions
will increase the intramyometrial pressure (120mmHg)
compared to arterial pressure (85mmHg) [1]. The initial
blood supply is less in this case and less amount of blood
crossing the umbilical cord feeding fetus. This is the
situation of less oxygen to the fetus, may lead to hypoxia.
This is shown by our model as the output magnitude of P0 in
term of available blood quantity. The output is shown in
figure 10 for the 50% available blood. Maternal blood enters
the placenta through the spiral arteries (the terminal
branches of the uterine artery), which traverse the
myometrium-muscular contractile layer of the uterus and
flow into the intervelleous space. At this level the mother
exchanges substances with the fetus through the "placental
barrier." Anesthetics and analgesics are of low molecular
weight, and are easily exchanged by diffusion as a result of
the concentration gradient between the maternal and fetal
compartments. Caldeyro-Barcia et.al have found that when
the uterus is at rest, without contraction, the mother's
arterial blood easily crosses the intervelleous space since the
average arterial pressure is about 85 mmHg and the
intramyometrial pressure external to the arteries is about 10
mmHg. During uterine contractions, however, the
intramyometrial pressure rises to 120 mmHg, exceeding the
arterial pressure which, under such conditions, is about 90
mmHg. The arteries therefore become temporarily occluded
because of the external pressure, and the placenta becomes
disconnected from the maternal circulation. [1]
If the conductivity is reduces to 10%, it take approximately
50 second to reach its final stage ie fetal heart. This very
dangerous stage for the fetus as lesser oxygen is going to
 (IJCNS) International Journal of Computer and Network Security, 9
fetus extremely asphyxia. The fetus may die because of less
blood or oxygen.
Figure 7. Output at gv unity with blood flow time of 5
seconds
Figure 8. Tissue’s Cell Membrane & its Electrical
Equivalent
Figure 9. Output at gv 0.5 with blood flow time of 10
seconds
Figure 10. 50 % available blood during contractions and
same amount to fetus
Vol. 2, No. 4, April 2010
Figure 11. Deoxygenated blood flow curve, when both
arteries are good
Figure 12. Deoxygenated blood flow curve, when one artery
good
Figure 13. Blood flow time increases with decrease in
length of the umbilical vein
When equation 10 is simulated at various levels of arteries
path (u1 + u2 ). When both are working the response of this
is shown in figure 11. It takes approximately 2 second to
transfer the waste to placenta. This time increases as the
conductivity decreases. The setting time is doubled when
any one arteries is failed as shown in figure 12. This may
increase the acidic or PH composition level in the fetus
which can spoil umbilicus cord. The effect of length and
diameter of vein have also been simulated. The reaching
time also increases with the decrease in the length of the
cord even the supply of the blood is 100% at placenta. The
result of which is shown in figure 13. This indicates the
blood is reached to fetus with longer time. When compared
the result with the blood flow from model with the actual
10
flow of Doppler FVW taken from the paper [5], it shows the
same blood flow pattern as actual. The figures 14(a) show
the simulated blood flow while 14(b) the actual flow.
(a)
(b)
Figure 14. Comparison of the flow of blood between result
from model and with actual flow, (a) Flow of blood response
of Markov model (b) Actual blood flow: A frame extracted
from Doppler FVW [5]
5. Conclusion
The blood flow timing between the placenta-fetus and fetus -
placenta is given by the equation 8 and 10 respectively and
simulated using LabVIEW software. The flow is exponential
which shows that the umbilical cord structure (vein and
arteries) acts as a capacitor in parallel to resistance. Time
taken by the blood to reach fetus is increases as conductivity
decreases. Also the time increases in case of lass quantity of
blood is available due to uterine contractions, knot or any
other reason. The simulated results show the larger settling
time in case of short length. On the blood flow; it would be
useful to assist in developing a sensor for the evaluation of
conductivity of the umbilical cord and placenta during
pregnancy for the well-being of fetus. We are developing a
stand alone instrument for monitoring the various
parameters of the fetal model.
References
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Authors Profile
Sarwan Kumar received the BTech and MTech degrees in
Electrical Engineering from Regional Engineering College
Kurukshetra in 1992 and 1997, respectively. He is associate
professor at National Institute of Technology Jalandhar. Now he is
pursuing PhD from IIT Delhi, India under the guidance of
professors Sneh Anand IIT Delhi and Dr. Amit Sengupta, ,
Consulting Obstetrician & Gynecologist (CHS), Mumbai.