Mitigation Booklet On Climate Change-2010

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(

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2010

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.

Copyright 2010,
, ,
ISBN: 978-99929-93403-X

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, .
, ,
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,
, -
.



1.

8
10

1.1

10

1.2

13

2.

16

2.1

16

2.2

21

2.3

23

2.3.1

23

2.3.2

31

3. ,
,

35

35

3.1.1

35

3.1.2

42

45

3.2.1
, ,

45

3.2.2


48

4.
,

4.1 ,

53
53

61

3.1

3.2

4.2

4.2.1

61

4.2.2

62

64

4.3

5.


5.1



5.2

67

67
69

5.3

70


5.4

76


5.5

80

5.6

81

5.7

82

5.8

83

5.9.

84

5.10

85

1.1

XXI ,
(HADLY
)

2.1

2.2

2.3

CO2- , ., %

2.4

CO2-- CO2, CH4 N2O- ,


.-CO2-.

2.5

, , .

2.6

, .

2.7


, .

2.8

2.9

1990-2006 ( ,
)

2.10

3.1

2030
(-(Bottom-up) )

3.2

3.3

2030
-

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

100000

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

5.1

, .

5.2

-
, ../.


1.1

(),
(b) (c)-

1.2


2020-2029 ( ) 2090-2099
( ) .

1.3

1 2090-2099
( )
( ) 1980-1999

1.4

( ),
( )

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

,
10000 ( ) 1750
( )

2.5

2.6

2.7

XXI

2.8

CO2 ( ), .
.

2.9

1990-2006 , . CO2-

2.10

1990 2006 ( )

2.11

2.12

2.13

2.14

2.15

2.16

2.17

2.18

3.1

2030

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

4.1

4.2

5.1


, 2-/ ..

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.8

.5.9

.5.10

5.11

5.12

5.13

5.14


, ,
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1980- ,

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2007 IV
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dagvadorj@mne.gov.mn,
mecc@magicnet.mn, nam311@must.edu.mn
.

1.
,
,
,
[Climate Change Assessment Report (AR4IPCC), 2007, IPCC].
1.1 ,


( - IPCC) - 2007
IV
, .
1900 100
0.76-
.

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2 . 1970 , ,
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( 1.1).
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10


1.1

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(c)-

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XXI


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XX

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()-

(SRES)-
0.2- .

.

, I
1.8-4.0-
( 1.2).
(B1) 1.8 (1.1- 2.9), (1FI) 4.0-
(2.4- 6.4) .
1 .

,
,
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11

1.2
2020-2029 ( ) 2090-2099 ( )
.

,

( 1.3). ,
, .

1.3 1 2090-2099
( ) ( )
1980-1999

12

1.2 ,
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.
, 1940
2.140-,
(2.0-3.70), ,
(0.7-2.00) .
70
8.7-12.5 ,
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1.4 ( ),
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13

, 5.2-10.7 ,
9.1-3.0 .
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. 1980-
20 . 2007
5097 ,
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2.4-2.80-, 2070-2099 (2080) 3.5-5.00 -,
2.0-2.30, 3.6-3.60, 4.7-6.40- ,
2010-2039 (2025) 4.0 , 2040-2069 (2050), 20702099 (2080) 17.5-22.8 ( 1.1) .
XXI
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1.1 XXI ,

(HADLY )
, 0

, %

20112030

20462065

20802099

20112030

20462065

20802099

A2

1.0

2.7

5.0

2.0

9.0

15.0

A1B

0.9

3.0

4.6

0.0

7.0

16.0

B1

0.8

2.1

3.1

3.0

6.0

11.0

A2

0.7

2.3

4.2

14.0

19.0

55.0

A1B

0.2

2.5

3.8

0.0

23.0

41.0

B1

0.2

1.6

3.0

7.0

14.0

32.0

A2

1.1

3.1

6.3

-2.0

4.0

7.0

A1B

1.4

3.6

5.6

-4.0

3.0

11.0

B1

1.2

2.7

3.7

2.0

0.0

8.0

15

2.
,
XXI
,
XX [Climate
Change Assessment Report (AR4-IPCC) 2007, IPCC]
2.1 ,
,
(78%), (21%)

,
,
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,
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,

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,
( 2.1). , (CO2),
(CH4), (N2O) ( 2.2) ,

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16

2.1

,
20
. ,
.
,
.

2.2

17


, (CO2), (O3), (CH4), (N2O)

.
.

,
.
,

. (PFCs, SF6),
(HFCs)
.
2.3- .

2.3



,
, .
10 2.4- .

280 ppmv1 387 ppm , 35.4% .
1

ppv

18

(700 ppbv2) 2005


1745 ppb .


2005 275 ppb-
322 ppb ( 2.1).


,

.



.


( 2.1).



() 1970-
2004 70%-
.
1990-2004
, 15
24% - .
2.4 ,

10000 ( )
1750
( ).
(
)
( )
.

.

ppbv -

19

2.1 ,


(CO2)

280 ppm

387

100

(CH4)

700 ppb

1745

21

12


(N2O)

275 ppb

322

310

114

CFC12

0 ppt3

533

10900

100

HCFC-22


SF6

0 ppt

89

1810

12

0 ppt

6.70

22800

3200


1970 28.7 4 2- 2004 49 2-
.
. 2- 1970- 2004 80%
(1990-2004 28%) 2004
- 77%- ( 2.5). -
1970-2004 (145% ) .
2.6-
.

2.5 ,
3. ppt
4. -. 1 = 1

20

2.6 ,



1990 . 2004
1990 80%- .



.

2.2

.

.
,
,
4 ,
6 IPCC-
(IPCC SRES, 2000) ( 1).
XXI
,
. ( 2.7).
2000-2030
9.7-36.7 2- .
21

2.7
XXI

2030

. 2000-2030 2-
45-110% . 2-
2/3 3/4 - I ,

2- 2030 2.8-5.1 2/ I- (
) (9.6-15.1 2/) .

(6.2-9.9/..) -I-
(11-21.6 /..) .
3
2030 2.2- .
2.2.

2004

SRES A1

SRES B2

22

2002

2010

2020

2030

- (1018 )

286.2

334.0

395.0

452.8

- (109 )

23.98

28.33

33.93

39.0

- (1018 )

314.6

405.3

532.0

669.1

- (109 )

25.42

34.81

44.33

52.65

- (1018 )

289.2

350.6

417.6

497.2

- (109 )

24.86

29.1

33.15

37.46

2.3 ,
2.3.1
,

() 1990-2006
.
.
CO2-
.
(CO2), (CH4)
(N2O) .
CO2- . 19902006
CO2- 2.3- .
1990-2006 CO2- (64
85%) ,
. 2006 CO2-
7,925 . . , , ,
, 79.8%, 3.6%, 2.1%, 2.7%,
8.5%, 0.1%- .
CO2- , , ,
. 1990
CO2- 2,540 . 1995
1,020 . , . 2006
CO2- 1,906 .
16.5%- .
2.3 CO2- , ., %

1990
1995
2000
2005
2006

6,074

1,576

156

412

838

217 259

9,532

63.7
5,444

16.5
974

1.6
132

4.3
293

8.8
190

2.3
38

2.7
314

100%
7,385

73.7

13.2

1.8

4.0

2.6

0.5

4.3

100%

6,123
84.6

284
3.9

100
1.4

314
4.3

278
3.8

4
0.1

136
1.9

7,240
100%

6,346

154

137

258

499

25

151

7,570

83.8

2.0

1.8

3.4

6.6

0.3

2.0

100%

6,328

289

165

211

677

11

244

7,925

79.8

3.6

2.1

2.7

8.5

0.1

3.1

100%

23

1990-2006 2-
2.8- . CO2- 1990-1995
-
.

2.8 CO2-
( ), ..

CO2, CH4 N2O- .


.
. CH4 N2O - CO2

. CO2, CH4 N2O-
CO2-- 2.4- .
1990 12,529 .-CO2-. 1995
8,710 .-CO2-. , 2006 10,220 .-CO2. . 1995 1990
30%- 2006 1995 14.7% .
2.4 CO2-- CO2, CH4 N2O-
, .-CO2-.

1995

2000

2005

2006

12,072

8,405

8,561

9,274

9,831

CH4

386

246

245

299

324

N 2O

71

59

59

62

65

12,529

8,710

8,865

9,635

10,220

24

1990

CO2



(SRES)-
//
1. , ,
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3 . :
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3 . (
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2.
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1, 1 ,
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1, 1FI, A1T, A2, B1, B2
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.

, .
, -
(UNFCCC)-
.

25

.

CO2, ,
()- .

.
(HFCs), (PFCs)
(SF6) .

, ,
.
, . ,
2.5- . 19902006 CO2- 3
1.7 .
2.5 ,
, .

1990

1995

2000

2004

2005

2006

219.74

54.24

45.71

30.86

55.78

70.19

93.73

46.77

33.67

27.30

73.89

54.96

, - .
- , , ,
,
. - 1990 1,205 ..
2006 806.5 .. . 2006 - 75%
, 20% .
HFCs, PFCs SF6 .
(HFCs)
.
,

- 1996
.
.

( ) .

26

.
.

.
.
.
.

2.6- .
2.6
, .

CH4

CH4

CH4

CH4

CO

NOX

N 2O

1990

265.50

8.69

274.19

0.19

3.93

0.13

6.23

1995

282.30

9.30

291.60

0.08

1.69

0.06

2.93

2000

287.79

9.13

296.92

0.04

0.94

0.03

1.65

2005

249.23

7.40

256.63

0.02

0.50

0.02

1.49

2006

280.72

8.19

288.90

0.04

0.93

0.03

1.27

.

,
, .

CO2
.

. 1990-1993

1994
. 1990
1,887.4 . 1993 74.42 . . 1994
.
CO2- 1994 538.8 .
2006 2,082.6 . ( 2.7).

27

2.7
, .


CO2

1990

2,071.95

926.37

-1110.93

1,887.39

1994

1030.98

393.98

-1963.79

-538.83

1995

907.45

347.21

-2160.18

-905.52

2000

620.21

266.6

-2649.00

-1,762.06

2005

872.08

225.29

-3063.28

-1,965.91

2006

963.96

193.33

-3239.87

-2,082.58

.
,
,
. CH4- 1990
4.59 . 2006 6.55 . . 1990 CH4 40.5% , 59.5%
( 2.8). 55%
.
CH4-
.
2.8

1990

1.86

40.52

1.43

31.15

1.30

28.32

4.59

100

1995

1.91

36.59

1.45

27.78

1.86

35.63

5.22

100

2000

2.12

37.13

1.61

28.20

1.98

34.68

5.71

100

2005

2.38

37.19

1.80

28.13

2.22

34.69

6.40

100

2006

2.43

37.10

1.84

28.09

2.28

34.81

6.55

100

.
1990-2006 - CO2--
2.9- . 1990 22,535.00 .
-CO2-
1995 15,044.00 . CO2-
. 1990
.

28

2.9. 1990-2006 , .-CO2-

,
. 2006 50.4 %-
, 41.8% , 7.8%- N2O HFCs (
2.10). - 1990-2006 2.9-
. CO2- 2006 ,
98%
.
CO2- ( 9831.10 .,
125.15 ., 1157,29 .)
CO2- 88.5
.

2.10. 1990 2006 ( )


92-93%- .
5-6%-
2%- .
29


, , ,


( 2.10).

2.11

2.9 1990-2006 ( , )
1990
( )
(
)
1.
A . ()
-
-
-
- ,
,
-
B.

-
-
2.
-
- HFCs, PFCs, SF6
3.
-
-
-
-

30

1995

2000

2004

2005

2006

23,645

17,205

16,896

16,910

17,582

18,868

22,535

15,044

14,247

13,755

14,519

15,628

12,529
12,334
6,585
1,809
1,786

8,710
8,611
5,600
1,017
905

8,865
8,768
6,231
334
1,214

9,247
9,118
6,247
198
1,591

9,635
9,495
6,421
220
1,643

10,220
10,069
6,399
356
1,887

1,895

775

852

943

1,059

1,181

259

314

136

139

151

244

195

99

98

128

140

150

195
0
326
313
13
7,695
5,576
183
1,932
1

99
0
166
101
67
6,964
5,857
196
909
2

98
0
276
79
197
6,748
6,044
192
511
1

128
0
972
58
914
5,518
4,879
148
490
1

140
0
862
130
732
5,854
5,234
156
463
1

150
0
892
125
767
6462
5895
172
393.7
0.84

4.

-

-
-
5.
-
-

2.10

1,887

-906

-1,762

-2,112

-1,966

-2083

2,072

907

620

807

872

964

926
-1,111
96
39
57

347
-2,160
110
40
69

267
-2,649
120
45
75

236
-3,155
131
48
82

225
-3,063
134
50
84

193
-3240
138
51
87

, .
CO2-
,
, 2000 US$5

, /
-
, CO2- /US$

1990

1995

2000

2004

2005

2006

22.5

15.0

14.2

13.8

14.5

15.6

2103
0.9

2249
0.8

2407
0.9

2533
1.2

2562
1.3

2595
1.4

10.7

6.7

5.9

5.4

5.7

6.0

25.2

18.8

15.8

11.5

11.4

11.1

2.3.2
- 2020
.
LEAP .

,
. -
. -

.

. , ,
. 2020 1.7
. ,

2020 4.3 .
,
2006-2020 2.3
. ,
2.9 .
2.12, 2.13- .
5. IEA Statistics, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Highlights: 2008

31

2.12
2006
4080 CO2- 2020 10400 CO2-
.
.
2020
.
, 300 ;
, 50 ;
, 60 ;
, 36 ;
,
300-600 .
2006 7430
. CO2- 2020 15290 . CO2- 2
.
.
,
. ( 2.14).

2.13
32

.
2.15-
.
2006-2020 2 ( 2.16).
1.8%,
3.6%, 2.9% ( 2.17).
2.5 , 25%
( 2.18).

2.14

2.15

33

2.16

2.17
,

2.18
,
34

3.
,
,

10 ,

[Climate Change Assessment Report (AR4-IPCC), 2007, IPCC].
3.1 ,
3.1.1
,
,
. -
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. 2030 -
3.1- . 2000 43 2-/
2030 68 2-/ ( 1) .
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35

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: Climate Change Assessment Report (AR4-IPCC) 2007, IPCC

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: Climate Change Assessment Report (AR4-IPCC) 2007, IPCC

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46

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(AR4-IPCC) 2007, IPCC

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11. : Asia Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS)-MONGOLA, ADB

55

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: Asia Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS)-MONGOLA, ADB.


,
:
12.
13. (1993-2020 ) - (EFOM
)

59


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14.
14. Asia Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS)-MONGOLA, ADB.

60


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5.2

17. .: Coal Resources of Mongolia

69

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18. - ru.wikipedia.org

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1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

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2005

2006

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