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TO: FROM: RE: DATE:

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Hickman Analytics, Inc.

Honest Accurate Insight

MEMORANDUM
Interested Parties Harrison Hickman, Hickman Analytics, Inc. Recent Nebraska Poll Results November 28, 2011

Overview. Ben Nelsons political standing has improved significantly this year according to results of our recent poll of 1300 likely Nebraska voters. Nelson now leads each of his three announced opponents, and his standing improves even more after voters hear arguments in support of and in opposition to Nelson and his opponents. While this continues to be a highly competitive race, Nelson is positioned to win re-election if he decides to run for another term. Key Findings Personal popularity. Nelson is more popular than his Republican opponents and, in contrast to the Republicans, Nelsons popularity is on the upswing. A majority (54%) have a favorable impression of Nelson, while 40% have an unfavorable one. This is a significant improvement since February 2010, when more voters had an unfavorable than a favorable opinion of him (47% favorable, 49% unfavorable). The improvement is particularly noteworthy, given declining and historically low -- opinions of the U.S. Congress, and the fact that third party groups have spent over $600,000 running negative ads against him. Jon Bruning is less popular than Nelson (48% favorable, 27% unfavorable), and his ratings are declining. In February 2011, just after his re-election campaign, Brunings ratings were 54%20% -- a net decline of 13 points. In a similar fashion, Don Stenbergs personal popularity has fallen from 43%-21% in February to 39%-25% today. Deb Fischers personal popularity rating is 16% favorable, 9% unfavorable; her unfavorable rating has increased as much as her favorable rating this year. Vote preference. Nelson has also shown major improvement with respect to vote preference over the last year and now leads all three Republican challengers. As the following table illustrates, Nelson trailed Bruning and Stenberg by significant amounts as recently as June. Today, Nelson leads Bruning 47%-45%, and he leads Stenberg 49%-43%. He trailed them by nine points and 15 points, respectively, less than a year ago. Nelson holds an even larger lead over Fischer, 50%-37%.

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Trend in vote preference
Feb 2011 Ben Nelson Jon Bruning Undecided Ben Nelson Don Stenberg Undecided Ben Nelson Deb Fischer Undecided
Sample size Margin of error +/43% 52 5 45% 50 5 na na na 600 4.0

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June 2011
43% 48 9 45% 46 10 48% 35 17 600 4.0

Nov 2011
47% 45 8 49% 43 8 50% 37 13 1300 2.7

Candidate arguments. All poll respondents heard arguments for and against Nelson. Subsets of the sample heard a similar number of arguments for and against Bruning and Stenberg as well. After hearing those positive and negative arguments, Nelsons position increased against both Republicans.

Change in vote preference after arguments

Ben Nelson Jon Bruning Undecided Ben Nelson Don Stenberg Undecided
Current Vote 47% 45 8 49% 43 8 After Arguments 53% 35 12 55% 33 13 Net Change +6 -10 +4 +6 -10 +5

This pattern Nelson outscoring his re-elect number when pitted against actual candidates, and improving his position as voters become more familiar with arguments for and against them is almost identical to the pattern we found when Nelson was re-elected in 2006.

TECHNICAL NOTE: This memo is based on a survey of 1300 likely voters in 2012 general election in the state of th th Nebraska. Telephone interviewing was conducted from November 5 through November 10 . In 95 cases out of 100, responses in this survey should be within plus or minus 2.7 percentage points (plus or minus) of those that would have been obtained from interviewing the entire population of likely voters. Pertinent data for the other th rd polls referenced are as follows. The June survey was conducted from June 19 through June 23 , with 600 likely voters which implies a sampling error of 4.0 (plus or minus). The February 2011 survey was conducted from st th February 21 through February 24 , with 600 likely voters which implies a sampling error of 4.5 (plus or minus).

Hickman Analytics, Inc

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