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The Real Deals (08-03-2012)
The Real Deals (08-03-2012)
Singapore
THEREALDEALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate
Grass is greener near Hillview Avenue
The latest tender results for a condominium site at Hillview Avenue bear out the commonly-held belief that a development near any MRT line (in this case, the Downtown Line) is a boon in itself, if not a lift to the prices it can command when launched. Property cooling measures notwithstanding, the 99-year leasehold site attracted bullish offers from seven developers. Kingsford Development submitted the top bid of $243.2m, a comfortable 15.6% above the second-highest bid by Flamegold Pte Ltd. The breakeven for the land cost works out to just a 5% discount to that of The Hillier, a mixed-used project launched for sale at the beginning of the year. We expect the average selling price for the proposed development on the Hillview site to be similar to The Hillier, whose median price currently is $1,296 psf. The New York-themed tower has sparked a quicker rise in price in the vicinity, with resale condos fetching above $900 psf in the past year or so. Island-wide, The Hillier and Watertown are the only two primary market launches that stood out for a 100% take-up rate of their launched units. In our view, the new land parcel will most likely attract the same strong take-up rate, and the selling price may see a further boost as the date to the launch of the MRT station draws closer. Rental for units in the area was around $2.55 psf pm at the end of the last quarter, according to our estimates. This works out to a respectable gross yield of 3.4%.
Primary market launch prices 2011 to Feb 2012
8 March 2012
The Hillier 99-Yr TOP 2015 Latest caveat: $1462psf Hillington Green 999 yrs fm 1883 TOP 2002 Latest caveat: $1,001 psf Feb12
Land parcel
Hillview Heights Freehold TOP 1996 Latest caveat: $1022 psf Feb12
Glendale Park Freehold TOP 2000 Latest caveat: $939 psf Feb12
Hillview MRT
Source: www.onemap.com.sg
Hillview
1000
800 11/18 Source: URA 1/7 2/26 4/17 6/6 7/26 9/14 11/3 12/23 2/11 4/1
Hillview tender results The Hillier Apr-11 Far East 99-yr 40,025 289.8 175.8 12 370 672.6 350 812 Latest site Mar-12 Kingsford Development 99-yr 35,416 243.2 148 7 380 638.0 350 918
Developer Leasehold GFA Highest bid ($m) Lowest bid ($m) Number of bids Units Land cost ($psf ppr) Est. construction cost ($psf) Est. breakeven ($psf) Source: URA
Light at the end of the tunnel There are several projects in the vicinity of the Hillview site sold. These received their TOP between 1995 and 2002. In the past decade, prices of Chantilly Rise, Glendale Park, Hillingston Green, Hillview Heights, Hillview Park and Summerhill have been hovering around $380-600+ psf. Finally, in 2006, the residents saw a rise in their property value in anticipation of the opening of a Downtown Line MRT station in 2015. Resale prices have reached $1,000 psf and may edge up following the launch of The Hillier, whose prices currently are at a 30% premium over neighbouring projects.
Resale prices in Hillview since 2002
Chantilly Rise 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Apr-01 Source: URA Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Aug-13 Glendale Park Hillingston Green Hillview Heights Summerhill Hillview Park
8 March 2012
Page 2 of 7
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Recent resale transactions
Project The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier Hillview Heights Hillington Green The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier Hillview Heights Glendale Park The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier
Source: URA
8 March 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Price ($psf) 1462 1390 1650 1334 1022 1001 1467 1490 1375 1303 1142 1159 1314 937 939 1279 1298 1422 1722 1275 1339 1383 1250 1300 1446 1487 1376 1227 1325 1430 1313 1255 1378
Index SRPI Overall (Dec 11) URA PPI (4Q11) HDB Resale (4Q11)
Property Stocks
Name Price CapitaLand 2.96 CityDev 10.99 Ho Bee 1.335 HPL 1.85 KepLand 3.37 SC Global 1.035 SingLand 5.84 UOL 4.79 Wheelock 1.59 Wing Tai 1.27 N.A. = No Coverage Disc/ Prem to RNAV RNAV NTA/share* 4.95 -40% 3.51 12.4 -11% 7.51 3.18 -58% 2.34 4.39 -58% 2.7 5.7 -41% 3.64 3.6 -71% 1.59 9.82 -41% 10.74 N.A. N.A. 6.43 N.A. N.A. 2.35 2.81 -55% 2.47 *As at latest reported Disc/ Prem to NTA/share -16% 46% -43% -31% -7% -35% -46% -26% -32% -49%
8 March 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Takeup rate (%) 48.3 93.6 21.2 26.8 43.5 96.7 63.9 52.9 16.7 85.8 83.3 73.0 4.2 81.8 23.4 34.7 92.4 51.0 90.2 49.3 77.4 80.7 85.2 96.7 77.6 12.4 48.5 76.5 90.6 81.5 72.6 59.6 40.8 50.7 81.9 90.0 73.3 36.9 79.6 61.4 28.7 37.9 78.9 92.5 81.7 Units sold (Jan) 14 2 9 2 11 4 3 3 13 8 5 5 3 2 33 8 6 4 3 37 11 7 5 3 770 73 21 14 13 12 12 9 9 8 6 3 387 172 10 2 198 83 7 7 4
Median
8 March 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Secondary Market
($psf) 1,451 1,420 3,331 1,558 1,596 1,904 1,333 1,259 1,327 1,325 1,130 1,050 1,245 745 1,117 1,483 1,731 1,644 1,153 897 986 721 866 814 1,169 855 1,329 693 903 1,507 873 1,354 1,067 860 1,031 1,221 1,289 753 706 808 951 890 1,045 1,394 861 District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf Dec11 1,486 1,735 1,175 1030 1,049 795 923 813 836 $psf Jan12 1,316 1,879 1,268 1,248 1,142 925 860 996 1,001 MoM % Change -11.4 8.3 7.9 21.1 8.9 16.4 -6.8 22.5 19.8
City & Southwest (1-8) Farrer Park Suites 29 14 Ascentia Sky 373 349 Orchard/ Tanglin/ Holland (9-10) The Scotts Tower 231 49 D'Leedon 1715 460 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) Nottinghill Suites 124 54 Floridian 336 325 The Interweave 169 108 Thomson Grand 361 191 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) Centra Residences 78 13 Euhabitat 748 642 Vacanza @ East 473 394 Central Imperial 63 46 Idyllic Suites 71 3 Eight Courtyards 654 535 East Coast (15-16) Archipelago 577 135 The Seawind 222 77 Silversea 383 354 The Sound 104 53 Tivoli Grande 82 74 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) The Palette 892 440 Seastrand 473 366 Arc at Tampines (EC) 574 463 Waterview 696 593 NV Residences 642 621 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Watertown 992 770 Riversound Residences 590 73 Cardiff Residences 163 79 Austville Residences 540 413 A Treasure Trove 882 799 Centro Residences 329 268 The Minton 1145 831 Suites @ Paya Lebar 99 59 The Luxurie 622 254 Parc Vera 452 229 Terrasse 414 339 The Vue 50 45 West (22-24) Hillier 528 387 Rainforest (EC) 466 172 Blossom Residences 602 479 Pavillion Park (phase 2) 264 162 North (25-28) Parc Rosewood 689 198 The Nautical 435 165 Woodhaven 337 266 The Greenwich 319 295 The Miltonia 410 335 Source: URA
Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Dec11 4.7 4.4 3.3 3 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.5 $psf pm Jan12 4.8 4.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.7 MoM % Change 1.6 5.0 -4.4 6.4 1.1 -1.7 -3.0 2.3 9.2
8 March 2012
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DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 3 6 9 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 23 23 Sentosa Landbank
8 March 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 545 119 122 203 178 5 165 21 452 1,517 605 146 702 785 294 123 207 6,188 68 620 290 307 234 94 368 9 1,990 343 39 1,255 55 150 109 509 140 2,600 110 357 467 34 442 476 187 131 248 147 86 20 819 75 84 159
City Dev
Alexandra Road GLS site South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) NV Residences (Pasir Ris) The Palette (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Drive 8 (4 + 5) (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley) The Rainforest (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) Blossom Residences (EC) (Segar Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) Sengkang GLS site (Sengkang Square) The Lakeside Residences (Lakeside Drive) Total Unsold Units The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Dleedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences(Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units
KepLand
1 2 4 4 4 4 19 22
CapitaLand
3 9 10 10 15 16 20 26
Ho Bee
Sentosa Sentosa
Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) The Surrento (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) RiverBay (Mar Thoma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thoma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Total Unsold Units
99yr 99yr
UOL
2 16
Freehold 99yr
Allgreen
2 5 9 12 12 21
Wheelock
9 10
Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units
Freehold Freehold
8 March 2012
Page 5 of 7
8 March 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 500 381 37 918 95 60 24 88 221 80 232 746 1,546 249 197 34 595 107 380 153 1 222 728 119 2,785 24 64 38 42 157 35 285 645 70 65 580 75 790 35 208 23 50 31 347 19,730
Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah/Choon Guan) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units
Bt Sembawang
4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28
Frasers Centrepoint
9 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 19 27
Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bedok South GLS site (Bedok South Avenue 3) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Esparina Residences (Sengkang) Watertown (Punggol) Twin Waterfalls (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Total Unsold Units
99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr
Wing Tai
3 9 9 10 10 11 23
MCL Land
10 15 17 19
NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Terrasse (Hougang Ave 2) Total Unsold Units
SC Global
9 9 9 10 Sentosa
The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) The Ardmore (Ardmore Road) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Grand Total
Source:HDB,URA
8 March 2012
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