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GNW 1Q12 Australia Materials FINAL (1)
GNW 1Q12 Australia Materials FINAL (1)
GNW 1Q12 Australia Materials FINAL (1)
Company Confidential
This presentation should be used in conjunction with the accompanying audio or call transcript.
1Q12 Earnings Call Australia MI May 2, 2012 1
Observations
0.54%
0.53% 0.37% 0.80% 0.57% 0.49%
Total Delq Rate
100.5
31% 23% 22% 11% 13%
Geographic Dispersion In Line With Population Overall Performance By Geography Solid Queensland Exception Coastal Queensland Particularly Pressured ~6% Risk In-Force (RIF) 2007/2008 Strong Origination Markets Higher Concentrations Of Small Business/ Self-Employed ~6% RIF
100.5
32% 10% 12% 11% 13% 9% 10%
0.54%
0.23% 0.80% 1.14% 1.38% 0.83% 0.27% 0.05% -%
Sub-Segment Pressured By Current Economy Particularly Coastal Queensland Strengthened Guidelines & Eliminated Certain Products In 2008/1H09
3%
May 2, 2012
May 2, 2012
Largest Impact In Sub-Regions With Depressed Tourism & Consumer Spending Strong A$ & Decline In Consumer Confidence Impacted Local Economies Reduced Housing Demand Deeper Home Price Declines
Retail Sales, Tourism Growth (Index To 4Q08), Mortgage Rate
115
Retail / Tourism
Mortgage Rate
Mortgage Rate QLD Retail Sales AUS Retail Sales QLD Tourism
8.0 7.5
Coral Sea
Far!North
Delq!Rate %!QLD!RIF HPA!(4Q11) Peak!To!Trough 1.0% 4% (10)% (17)%
Q2
Q3
Q4
2010 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2011 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2012 Q1TD
Delinquency Development
1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
0.74% 0.84% 1.12% 0.98% 1.13%
Sunshine!Coast
Delq!Rate %!QLD!RIF HPA!(4Q11) Peak!To!Trough 1.0% 6% (5)% (12)%
0.64% 0.52%
0.74% 0.56%
0.84% 0.59%
0.81% 0.55%
Gold!Coast
Delq!Rate %!QLD!RIF HPA!(4Q11) Peak!To!Trough 1.1% 14% (8)% (15)%
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
107 88 89 77
115
107
112
2.9
1.4 0.6 1.8 0.8
2.7
1.6 0.8
1.5
1.0 0.4
0.7
2010
0.8
2011+
65
06 & Prior
2007
2008
2009
4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
4Q11
Paid Claims # Portfolio!SB/SE 07"08!SB/SE QLD SB/SE 4Q11 111 69 34 1Q12 208 147 90
1Q12
Increase 87% 113% 165%
06 & Prior
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011+
1Small
Business/Self-Employed
May 2, 2012
Portfolio Vintage
Delinquency Rates
1.2%
Early!Stage
Late!Stage
1.0%
10% 18%
15% 25%
0.8%
0708 2009
0.6%
0.4%
Early!Stage
Late!Stage
0.2%
2010 2011
Severity!Indication
24"27%!
31"33%!
0.0%
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49
Months Aging
Australia Direct Business Only 1Q12 Earnings Call Australia MI May 2, 2012 7
Observed Extension Of Time From Arrears To Claims Payment Two Drivers Servicing Practices/Forbearance Process Gives Rise To Increased Claims Sensitivity Servicing
Servicing Delays Caused By Specific Lender Group Interest Accumulates As Arrears Age Driving Up Costs Lenders Cautious In Proceeding With Foreclosures
25 20 15 10 5 0
All Other
21 13
Forbearance
Aug-11 Nov-11 Jan-11 Jul-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Jun-11 Jan-12 Apr-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Sep-11 May-11 Dec-11 Mar-12
Borrowers Can Resolve Hardship Disputes Through A Government Sanctioned Process Provides Forbearance While Dispute Is Being Resolved By An Independent 3rd Party Number Of Complaints Is Increasing
May 2, 2012
Paid Claims
Number Of Claims Paid Increased Significantly In 1Q12 Average Claims Size Increased, Particularly In March 2012 # Of Claims Paid
253 162 150
Oct-11
293
306
156
Nov-11
177
GNW/Lenders Increased Focus On Default Management Volume Of Claims Paid Increased Significantly In 1Q12 Considerable Increase In Average Paid Claim In March
Sep-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
64
60
Sep-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
May 2, 2012
57 48
Loss Reserve Strengthening Reflects Recent Emergence Of Claims Frequency & Severity Improved Economic Conditions Not Anticipated In Reserves Significant Strengthening In Late Stage Delinquencies
27 14 15
Early Stage
Late Stage
Foreclosure
1Q12 Loss Reserve Strengthening: $82MM Total Loss Reserves @ 1Q12: $342MM
May 2, 2012
10
May 2, 2012
11
Portfolio Assessment
Specific Tourist Areas
Coastal Queensland Primary Tourist Concentration Other Areas Lower Exposure Diversified Economic Areas Withstanding Pressure
Specific Tourist Areas Coastal Queensland Central Coast (NSQ) South West (WA) RIF% Delq Rate 6% 1% 1% 1.13% 0.75% 0.84%
Portfolio Vintage
2007/2008 Vintages Under Performing Other Books Small Business/Self-Employed A Driver Delinquency Trends Stabilizing As Portfolio Seasons
1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
1 8 15 22
Delinquency Rate
2008
Australia Direct Business Only 1Q12 Earnings Call Australia MI May 2, 2012 12
Months Aging
Financials
Net Operating Income (Loss)1
($MM)
Observations History Of Solid Annual Earnings Single Premium Product Reduces Revenue Volatility $1.1B Of Unearned Premiums ~7% Price Increase Underway ~30% Of Revenue From Invested Asset Base Expect To Be Profitable In 2012
52
54 36
54
(21)
Loss Reserve Adjustment
(53) 1Q12
154%
1Q11
45%
2Q11
48%
3Q11
48%
4Q11
46%
1Re-Presented
For Accounting Change In 1Q12 Related To Deferred Acquisition Costs May 2, 2012 13
Capital Adequacy
Regulatory Capital Ratio
(%) 152
Tier II Debt Raise
Observations
153
157
155
Capital Solvency Ratio Remains Solid A $2.3B Capital Base Diversified Capital Base
Raised A$140MM In Tier II Debt (June 2011) Building Tier 1 Capital Base Increased Reinsurance
139
May 2, 2012
14
Genworth View
Lending Standards Are Strong Fundamental Housing Shortage Outlook For Economy Remains Solid Home Prices Are High By Historical Measures Moderated Since 2Q10 Affordability Good But Higher Debt Exposes Households To Rate Shocks We Continue To Strengthen Risk Mitigation Strategies
Bulls
Purchasing Power Supports Current Prices Affordability Has Improved With Lower Home Prices, Lower Rates & Higher Wages Fundamental Housing Shortage Strong Lending Standards With Full Borrower Recourse Government Has Monetary & Fiscal Flexibility
1Q12 Earnings Call Australia MI
May 2, 2012
15
Appendix
May 2, 2012
16
Delinquency Roll
Quarterly Trends
1Q11
Beginning Balance New Cures Paid Claims Ending Balance 7,062 3,457
Observations
2Q11
7,557 3,983
3Q11
8,193 4,040
4Q11
8,464 3,100
1Q12
7,874 3,555
(2,590) (2,954) (3,373) (3,207) (2,740) (372) 7,557 (393) 8,193 (396) 8,464 (483) 7,874 (852) 7,837
Delinquencies
Change In Delqs Delinquency Rate 495 0.52% 636 0.56% 271 0.59% (590) 0.55% (37) 0.54%
May 2, 2012
17
May 2, 2012
18
May 2, 2012
19