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Brown Is the New White: How the Demographic Revolution Has Created a New American Majority
Brown Is the New White: How the Demographic Revolution Has Created a New American Majority
Brown Is the New White: How the Demographic Revolution Has Created a New American Majority
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Brown Is the New White: How the Demographic Revolution Has Created a New American Majority

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The New York Times and Washington Post bestseller that sparked a national conversation about America's new progressive, multiracial majority, updated to include data from the 2016 election

With a new preface and afterword by the author

When it first appeared in the lead-up to the 2016 election, Brown Is the New White helped spark a national discussion of race and electoral politics and the often-misdirected spending priorities of the Democratic party. This "slim yet jam-packed call to action" (Booklist) contained a "detailed, data-driven illustration of the rapidly increasing number of racial minorities in America" (NBC News) and their significance in shaping our political future.

Completely revised and updated to address the aftermath of the 2016 election, this first paperback edition of Brown Is the New White doubles down on its original insights. Attacking the "myth of the white swing voter" head-on, Steve Phillips, named one of "America's Top 50 Influencers" by Campaigns & Elections, closely examines 2016 election results against a long backdrop of shifts in the electoral map over the past generation—arguing that, now more than ever, hope for a more progressive political future lies not with increased advertising to middle-of-the-road white voters, but with cultivating America's growing, diverse majority.

Emerging as a respected and clear-headed commentator on American politics at a time of pessimism and confusion among Democrats, Phillips offers a stirring answer to anyone who thinks the immediate future holds nothing but Trump and Republican majorities.

LanguageEnglish
PublisherThe New Press
Release dateMar 6, 2018
ISBN9781620973257
Brown Is the New White: How the Demographic Revolution Has Created a New American Majority
Author

Steve Phillips

Steve Phillips is a New York Times bestselling author, columnist, and national political thought leader. He is the author of the New York Times and Washington Post bestselling Brown Is the New White: How the Demographic Revolution Has Created a New American Majority as well as How We Win the Civil War (both from The New Press); he is also the founder of Democracy in Color, a political media organization dedicated to race, politics, and the multicultural progressive New American Majority. Phillips is the host of “Democracy in Color with Steve Phillips,” a color-conscious podcast on politics. He is regular columnist for The Nation and The Guardian. He lives in San Francisco.

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    Brown Is the New White - Steve Phillips

    Praise for Brown Is the New White

    Steve Phillips has a deep understanding of how the civil rights movement changed America. His book sparks an important conversation about what increasing racial and cultural diversity will mean for American politics and policy.

    —Senator Cory Booker

    Steve Phillips challenges the status quo. He is an essential voice for our times. Now more than ever we need thought leaders like him and we need to listen up. We ignore Phillips’s words at our own peril.

    —Senator Kamala Harris

    Steve Phillips illuminates how the transformational work of Dr. King changed the composition of the country. Decades after Nixon’s cynical political calculation, the time is ripe for a new Southern strategy. This book helps point the way.

    —Reverend Raphael Warnock, senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, spiritual home of the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

    It’s good news that, by some ways of figuring, America already has a progressive, multiracial majority. Now we all need to get to work mobilizing ourselves so that actual political power reflects that new math—this volume is a big help!

    —Bill McKibben, environmentalist and author of Hope, Human and Wild

    "Steve Phillips has provided a vital road map to a more hopeful, more inclusive America. Let’s pay attention to this important book as we gear up to use our votes to make real change."

    —Van Jones, founder, the Dream Corps, CNN contributor, and author of The Green Collar Economy and Rebuild the Dream

    A must-read for anyone seeking to make change happen, from small towns to the halls of Congress to the White House.

    —John Podesta, former chief of staff to President Bill Clinton and former counselor to President Barack Obama

    His thesis is extremely clarifying to understanding modern politics.

    —NBC News

    [Phillips] convincingly argues that there is a ‘New American Majority’ that comprises 51 percent of the voting age population in the United States.

    The Washington Post

    A passionate discussion of race and politics sure to inspire heated debate and, hopefully, proactive solutions.

    Kirkus Reviews

    [A] compelling argument.

    Publishers Weekly

    [A] manifesto to those seeking to change the way politics plays out in America today. . . . This slim yet jam-packed call to action will be in demand, both because Phillips is a popular pundit and because the time is ripe for an upheaval in politics-as-usual.

    Booklist

    Phillips’s writing style is clear and concise—laying out his argument with deceptively simple grace. With detailed numbers and in-depth analysis mixed with personal experience, Phillips begins with a description of the power of the ‘New American Majority,’ composed of progressive whites and people of color, then debunks the myth of the importance of the white swing voter while expounding upon America’s long-standing preference for whiteness.

    The Root

    Steve Phillips is the founder of Democracy in Color, a media organization dedicated to race, politics, and the New American Majority. He is a national political leader, civil rights lawyer, and senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. He is a regular contributor to The Nation and the New York Times.

    Active in political and social change for thirty years, Phillips became the youngest person ever elected to public office in San Francisco in 1992 and went on to serve as president of the Board of Education, where he authored pathbreaking legislation making San Francisco the first school district in the country to incorporate books by writers of color into the required reading in the literature curriculum. He is the co-founder of PowerPAC.org, a social justice and advocacy organization that conducted the largest independent voter mobilization efforts backing Barack Obama, Cory Booker, and Kamala Harris. In 2014, he co-authored the first-ever audit of Democratic Party spending and was named one of America’s Top 50 Influencers by Campaigns & Elections magazine. In 2016, Democracy in Color organized the first-ever panel on women of color in politics at the Democratic National Convention. In January 2017, Democracy in Color hosted the only DNC chair candidates forum focused on race and diversity.

    Phillips has appeared on multiple national radio and television networks, including NBC, CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, and TV One. He was a featured speaker at the City Club of Cleveland in 2014, and his address on race and politics was nationally broadcast on C-SPAN. Phillips has written extensively, with his work appearing in Campaigns & Elections, the Huffington Post, San Jose Mercury News, the San Francisco Chronicle, the San Francisco Examiner, and the Cleveland Plain Dealer, among other national and state publications.

    Phillips holds a JD from Hastings College of the Law and a BA from Stanford University. He is a member of the California Bar. He lives in San Francisco with his wife, Susan Sandler, and two cats.

    © 2016 by Steve Phillips

    Preface and afterword © 2018 by Steve Phillips

    All rights reserved.

    No part of this book may be reproduced, in any form, without written permission from the publisher.

    Requests for permission to reproduce selections from this book should be mailed to: Permissions Department, The New Press, 120 Wall Street, 31st floor, New York, NY 10005.

    Originally published in the United States by The New Press, New York, 2015

    This paperback edition published by The New Press, 2018

    Distributed by Two Rivers Distribution

    ISBN 978-1-62097-325-7 (e-book)

    Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

    Names: Phillips, Steve, 1964– author.

    Title: Brown is the new white: how the demographic revolution has created a new American majority / Steve Phillips.

    Description: New York: New Press, [2016] | Includes bibliographical references and index.

    Identifiers: LCCN 2015037544

    Subjects: LCSH: Minorities—Political activity—United States. | Race—Political aspects—United States. | Demography—Political aspects—United States. | Political participation—United States. |United States—Politics and government—21st century.

    Classification: LCC E184.A1 P49 2016 | DDC 323/.0420973—dc23 LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015037544

    The New Press publishes books that promote and enrich public discussion and understanding of the issues vital to our democracy and to a more equitable world. These books are made possible by the enthusiasm of our readers; the support of a committed group of donors, large and small; the collaboration of our many partners in the independent media and the not-for-profit sector; booksellers, who often hand-sell New Press books; librarians; and above all by our authors.

    www.thenewpress.com

    Book design and composition by dix!

    This book was set in Scala

    10987654321

    To my mother and father, who fought the fights that opened the doors that gave me the chance to succeed;

    To Reverend Jesse L. Jackson Sr., who risked his life to show the world the power and potential of an electoral rainbow coalition connected to the movement for social justice. I was paying attention;

    To Susan, without whom none of this would have been possible, and by this I mean pretty much anything meaningful I’ve accomplished in the past twenty-five years;

    And to all those working to change the organizations and institutions you are a part of to make them more reflective of the New American Majority and effective at fostering justice and equality. This book is for you.

    CONTENTS

    Preface to the Paperback Edition

    Author’s Note

    Introduction: They Said This Day Would Never Come

    1.51 Percent (and Growing Every Day): The New American Majority

    2.Meet the New American Majority

    3.Blinded by the White

    4.Requiem for the White Swing Voter

    5.Fewer Smart-Ass White Boys

    6.Invest Wisely

    7.What Is Justice? Policy Priorities for the New American Majority

    8.Conservatives Can Count

    Conclusion: From Fear to Hope

    Afterword: A Road Map for Taking Back Our Country

    Acknowledgments

    Appendix A: Math and Methodology

    Appendix B: What’s in a Name?

    Appendix C: Recommended Reading

    Appendix D: Math, Not Myth

    Notes

    Index

    RETURN OF THE MAJORITY

    Ashort time ago in a country near and dear to our hearts . . .

    A demagogue appealing to fear and hatred against specific groups of people ran for President of the United States. The majority of voters rejected his hate-based campaign, but because of an electoral system designed hundreds of years ago to accommodate the nation’s slaveholding states, interference from a hostile foreign government, and the fact that the opposition to his campaign was divided among three candidacies, the demagogue was able to piece together just enough votes to steal the election. Immediately upon taking office, he began consolidating his fortress of hate—one based on racism, misogyny, xenophobia, homophobia, and religious persecution.

    But across the country The Majority, who had rejected the demagogue, decided to rise up in resistance. Millions united in love and solidarity across lines of race, religion, gender, and sexual orientation. They believed in their hearts in what the 1960s civil rights movement called The Beloved Community—the idea that everyone in a society should be embraced regardless of demographic background. And so the people marched in the streets, jammed the phone lines of Congress, registered people to vote, and worked together to take their country back.

    With renewed energy and determination, activists across America developed plans to make America a democracy again by returning political power to the multiracial majority. They responded to the urgency of the historical hour by working to reclaim Congress, the White House, and statehouses across the country. They knew deep in their hearts that people across the planet were counting on the Return of the Majority.

    PREFACE TO THE PAPERBACK EDITION

    When I handed President Obama a copy of the first edition of this book, I inscribed it with the words, They said that day would never come, but I’m so glad it did. It was April 8, 2016. My wife and I were privileged to organize a fundraising event for the president at our home. It was one of the most moving events of my life and made me reflect on my family’s sojourn in America, which included my grandparents—whose own parents had been held in slavery in Alabama and Mississippi—participating in the post–World War I Great Migration of African Americans to the North. My grandparents settled in Cleveland, Ohio, and started the family that I was born into. Like most African Americans, my relatives and I relished the years of the Obama presidency (my uncle Lumumba texted me one day: I just love to watch him walk). What we learned in the 2016 election is that not everyone in America shared our enthusiasm.

    HISTORY HAS ITS EYES ON US

    It is no accident that the most racially inflammatory presidential nominee in more than a century immediately followed eight years of a Black family in the White House. The first edition of this book described how Obama’s ascendance marked the political emergence of a New American Majority consisting of the overwhelming majority of people of color and a meaningful minority of Whites who are progressive. Donald Trump’s success in 2016 was propelled by a virulent and ugly backlash against the political, cultural, social, economic, and racial changes in this country that had made Obama’s election and reelection possible. Make no mistake, Trump’s slogan, Make America Great Again, was a not-so-thinly disguised clarion call to Make America White Again.

    It says a lot—none of it good—that so many people responded to Trump’s campaign by giving him their vote, but it is critical that we properly understand exactly what happened in the 2016 election so that we can make course corrections that move us forward, not backward. A lot of the post-election analysis is incorrect, empirically unsound, and based on mythology rather than mathematics. A popular postmortem is that Democrats lost the presidential election because they placed too much emphasis on identity politics (code for catering to people of color and their quest for equality), thereby alienating the White working class and driving millions of voters who had previously supported Obama into the welcoming arms of a Trump campaign that had channeled their economic anxiety. This story, however, is a myth. (In Wisconsin, for example, Trump received fewer votes than Mitt Romney received four years earlier, undermining the notion of a Trump surge.) Most importantly, political plans and strategy based on this fictional story fail to address what really happened in the 2016 election and are dangerously likely to derail the hard-fought progress our nation has made over the past fifty years in overcoming inequality, injustice, and exclusion.

    A mathematical analysis of the data from the 2016 election tells a story that is simple, sad, and unsurprising in its outcome. After winning two presidential elections by inspiring and energizing the Black electorate, Democrats decided to return to fielding an all-White presidential ticket and pursuing an electoral strategy marked by a near-exclusive focus on White swing voters. Of the first $200 million allocated by Democratic-aligned independent groups in 2016, zero dollars were dedicated to Black voter mobilization. Zero. Predictably, Black voter turnout plummeted to its lowest level in 16 years. Had African Americans been inspired and organized to vote at the same levels as they did in 2012, Hillary Rodham Clinton would have won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and would now be President of the United States of America.

    The election results and subsequent census data confirm that progressive people of color and progressive Whites remain a growing majority in America with the power to win elections and transform politics and public policy for decades to come. Building a multiracial democracy is difficult, however, and we have been trying to get it right for more than four hundred years on this continent. How we understand and respond to this moment will determine whether the years between now and the next presidential inauguration in 2021 represent a brief diversion in the centuries-long march toward racial and economic justice, or if they become a decades-long detour from reaching what Martin Luther King Jr. called The Promised Land.

    In the words of the seminal Obama-era play Hamilton, history has its eyes on us.

    WHAT HAPPENED?

    To understand what went wrong and identify the proper path back to power, it is important to understand the big picture of the changes occurring in the country, and where the trends are heading. The United States remains a nation in demographic transition, and, despite Trump’s election, those changes are continuing apace. This country’s population was 12 percent people of color in 1965; by early 2017 that share of the population had more than tripled to 38.7 percent. As shown in the charts in Chapter 1, 51 Percent (and Growing Every Day): The New American Majority, the proportion of people of color in America increases every hour of every day (each day, seven thousand more people of color are added to the population, as compared to one thousand Whites). The swelling ranks of people of color comprise the cornerstone of the New American Majority.

    The second big picture reality—easily obscured by the level of shock and fear accompanying the election results—is that Hillary Clinton received more votes than Donald Trump. A lot more: nearly 3 million more votes. Even in the closest states that determined the outcome—Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida—Trump didn’t win the majority of votes. In those four decisive states, the progressive opposition splintered among three candidates (Clinton, Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein). At the national level, the composition of the coalition that elected and reelected Obama—the vast majority of people of color joined by a meaningful minority of Whites—continues to outnumber Republican voters in the country. And when the specific Obama metrics of 80.5 percent of people of color and 39 percent of Whites are applied to the entire eligible voter pool, that sum still equals the majority of the country’s eligible voters. In fact, the New American Majority is now a 52 percent majority, up from 51 percent at the time this book was first published. But it is a slim majority and a geographically uneven majority, and that unevenness created a crack through which Trump was able to slither into the White House.

    Looking at the specific locations where the election was lost reveals the geographic distribution of the population realignment that is transforming the country. Clinton lost by the slimmest of margins (77,744 total votes) in three historically Democratic rust belt states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—while simultaneously failing to make breakthroughs (although in several cases inching closer) in Southern and Southwestern states, traditionally Republican Red states, that are becoming increasingly diverse—Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.

    Even in the rust belt states, Clinton would have won had African Americans been inspired and organized to vote at 2012 levels. The problems in those states were exacerbated by a fractured opposition to Trump. Perhaps feeling the election was in the bag, hundreds of thousands more voters chose third- and fourth-parties than had in 2012. Green Party candidate Jill Stein’s increase in votes over her 2012 performance in Wisconsin and Michigan exceeded Clinton’s margin of defeat in both states. In Pennsylvania, 136,000 African Americans, unenthused by the all-White, excessively cautious Clinton-Kaine ticket, and, in many cases, deterred by voter suppression measures, didn’t vote, and Democrats ended up losing by 44,292 votes. (See Appendix D for more detail and data on how the three decisive states were lost.)

    In the South and Southwest, Democrats made progress, but not enough progress to counter the losses in the Midwest. Arizona, where Clinton outperformed Obama’s numbers from 2012, was actually one of the most closely contested states in 2016, with Clinton falling just 92,000 votes short out of nearly 3 million votes cast. The margins in Georgia and North Carolina were closer than those in Ohio and Iowa, two historical battleground states of elections past. Even Texas was more competitive than Iowa, a state that is 90 percent White and receives outsized attention every presidential election. These South and Southwest states will be even more brown—and more Democratic—in 2020.

    WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

    In order to reclaim this country for its multiracial majority, progressives must make four major changes—target the right voters, elevate culturally competent leaders, spend money smarter, and promote a bold and compelling policy agenda. I addressed each of these in the first edition of this book, but the failures of 2016 have painfully highlighted their continued centrality to electoral success in this current moment in time.

    Target the New American Majority

    Since November 2016, many Democratic leaders and consultants, like lemmings heading over a cliff, have rushed to embrace a fundamentally flawed strategy. In January 2017, the entire Senate Democratic Caucus trouped to West Virginia to hear from White voters who had once voted for Obama but then switched to Trump (this despite the fact that Obama himself had lost West Virginia by nearly 30 points). The Democrats’ nationally televised response to Trump’s first address to Congress in February 2017 featured a Kentucky diner full of White people (and possibly one light-skinned Black man) listening to White male Kentucky ex-governor Steve Beshear extol his rural, small-town roots. The House Democrats created a special committee in June 2017 to reach out to heartland voters. The independent expenditure committee focused on helping elect Democratic congressional candidates invested its precious resources in a 2017 initiative to study White working class voters. The progressive magazine the American Prospect commissioned a special issue in mid-2017 with thirteen separate articles focusing on how Democrats can and should pursue White working-class voters.

    In the first edition of this book I argued that progressives needed to break free from the tyranny of the White swing voter that led them to gear their policies, politics, tone, and tenor toward White swing voters. I pointed out that there were more progressive Whites than people appreciated, and that people of color combined with progressive Whites represented the future of progressive politics in America. I focused on Obama’s 39 percent share of the White vote in 2012—a decline of 5 million Whites from the heady days of 2008—to try to quantify the number of progressive Whites.

    That formulation was certainly tested in the 2016 election. On the one hand, the framework held in that, nationally, 37 percent of Whites—roughly the historical national average—joined with 74 percent of people of color to give Hillary Clinton a 2.8 million vote margin in the national popular vote. But obviously, in just enough key states, the coalition fell agonizingly short.

    Overlooked amid this infatuation with conservative White working-class voters are two undeniable realities that should—but do not—drive progressive political strategy. First, Black voter turnout fell precipitously in 2016, to its lowest level since Al Gore ran for president in 2000. (A higher percentage of African Americans came out to vote for John Kerry in 2004 than turned out for Clinton in 2016.) Yet as of late 2017, there had been no high-level retreats, commissions, conferences, or article series focused on how to increase Black voter participation.

    The second irrefutable and fundamental fact is that the White working-class share of the electorate continues to wane. Even in 2016, with an incredibly high-profile champion of aggrieved Whites running for president, the White working-class share of the electorate continued its decades-long decline. According to the Center for American Progress’s 2015 report States of Change, 73 percent of all eligible voters in 1974 were members of the White working class. By 2012, that figure had fallen to 44 percent, and it tumbled further in 2016 to the point where just 42 percent of that year’s voters were members of the White working class (and 28 percent of those voters are reliable Democrats, further reducing the universe of White workers that progressives need to worry about).

    Interestingly, little attention has been paid to the fact that most college-educated Whites voted for Trump. It’s not just a White working-class problem, it’s an American racism problem across class backgrounds that is as old as the Republic itself (Chapter 3, Blinded by the White discusses this reality at length). The hard truth of the matter is that White voters—of all economic classes—have preferred the Republican nominee in every single presidential election since 1965 when Lyndon Johnson signed the pro–people of color Voting Rights Act and Immigration and Nationality Act.

    If you want to win, it defies common sense to focus most of your time, money, and attention on a shrinking sector of the electorate, yet that is exactly what much of the Democratic Party and progressive ecosystem is doing. The way to win—the only way Democrats have won at the national level in the past sixteen years—is to inspire, invest in, organize, and galvanize the New American Majority—especially people of color who didn’t vote in 2016 and progressive whites who defected to Johnson and Stein.

    Fewer Smart-Ass White Boys

    The leadership of the progressive movement and Democratic campaigns was completely outmatched when it came to fighting on a racially polarized battlefield. Trump issued a shameless and unapologetic exhortation to White people to take their country back, and Democrats incongruently and inexplicably replied by simply repeating that he lacked the temperament to be president. The unintended implication of such a message was that Trump’s racism, misogyny, and xenophobia were not nearly as big a concern as his lack of etiquette and manners. Democrats did not draw a line in the sand and issue a countervailing and equally clear call to embrace the country’s demographic diversity.

    The reason the Democrats’ and progressives’ strategy, tactics, and plans missed the mark so widely is that the leadership of the organizations and entities that controlled the nearly $2 billion that was spent over the course of the 2016 election cycle more closely resembled apartheid South Africa than the Rainbow Coalition. Every single Democratic or progressive organization with a 2016 budget of more than $30 million was run by a White person—in a party where 47 percent of the voters are people of color. Chapter 5, Fewer Smart-Ass White Boys, focuses on this problem and argues for dramatically diversifying the ranks of campaign leadership because people who have lived a particular cultural experience have more insight into how to communicate with those who share that experience. In addition to the imperative of inspiring people of color, what the 2016 election showed is the necessity of cultural competence in communicating with White people so that they resist naked appeals to White nationalism and are summoned to their highest and best selves—something Obama did to great effect. Most White consultants are clueless about how to effectively talk about racial issues, and as a result they allowed Trump’s race-baiting campaign to become normalized and an acceptable option for just enough Whites to allow him to capture the presidency.

    Despite the devastating debacle, many of the same people who failed to stop Trump turned right around and offered themselves as the best people to clean up the mess they created. If progressives are going to emerge from the rubble stronger and smarter, they need to turn to, empower, elevate, and give budgetary authority to consultants and leaders with the cultural competence and experience needed for this highly charged racial environment in which we live.

    Invest Wisely

    Democrats and their allies spent hundreds of millions of dollars on paid advertising and lost the election to a guy with a Twitter account and the willingness to make such outrageous and offensive statements that he commanded significant free television coverage. When it comes to intelligently allocating resources to proven practices, the people who run and fund Democratic campaigns fell far short. I warned in Chapter 6, Invest Wisely, about the progressive penchant for wasting tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars each election on losing strategies at a time when [b]uilding a permanent progressive majority in America requires investing resources wisely.

    Even when Democrats did decide to contest states that contained large numbers of people of color, such as Arizona, they didn’t spend their money well. The Clinton campaign poured $2.5 million into Arizona in the closing weeks of the campaign, but spent most of that money on television ads targeting White voters rather than hiring Latino organizers to get out the vote. That same $2.5 million could have paid for more than a thousand organizers who could have turned out 200,000 of the 600,000 Arizona Latinos who were eligible to but didn’t vote in 2016. Clinton lost the state by 91,000 votes.

    An important part of investing wisely is instituting best practices of transparency and accountability, and one of the shocking flaws of progressive politics is how little accountability there is for results. All progressive stakeholders should insist on the same kinds of reporting, metrics, and communication that publicly traded companies provide in the form of quarterly reports and income statements that shed light on how well—or how poorly—an investment is performing. Absent these kinds of smart investing protocols, money will continue to be wasted on ineffective and outdated plans and programs.

    Be Bold—Ask and Answer the Question, What Is Justice?

    The demonstrably diminished enthusiasm of African American voters and the evident decline in White working-class support should force a greater grappling with the question, "What are Democrats offering voters, of all races? Why don’t Democratic leaders promote a more progressive, populist, and economically radical platform?"

    In Chapter 7, "What Is Justice?

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