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  • Reliability or Probability of Success

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    Shoyeb Imteaz
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    There are three rules for calculating reliability or probability of success given independent events: 1. If success requires all events, the probability is the product of the individual probabilities. For two machines needing to both work, the probability is 0.90 × 0.80 = 0.72. 2. If success requires only one event, the probability is the sum of individual probabilities minus their product. For two machines where only one needs to work, the probability is 0.80 + (1 - 0.80) × 0.90 = 0.98. 3. If success requires one of many events, the probability is 1 minus the product of failing probabilities. For three machines where only one needs to work

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    There are three rules for calculating reliability or probability of success given independent events: 1. If success requires all events, the probability is the product of the individual probabilities. For two machines needing to both work, the probability is 0.90 × 0.80 = 0.72. 2. If success requires only one event, the probability is the sum of individual probabilities minus their product. For two machines where only one needs to work, the probability is 0.80 + (1 - 0.80) × 0.90 = 0.98. 3. If success requires one of many events, the probability is 1 minus the product of failing probabilities. For three machines where only one needs to work

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    26 views3 pages

    Reliability or Probability of Success

    Uploaded by

    Shoyeb Imteaz
    There are three rules for calculating reliability or probability of success given independent events: 1. If success requires all events, the probability is the product of the individual probabilities. For two machines needing to both work, the probability is 0.90 × 0.80 = 0.72. 2. If success requires only one event, the probability is the sum of individual probabilities minus their product. For two machines where only one needs to work, the probability is 0.80 + (1 - 0.80) × 0.90 = 0.98. 3. If success requires one of many events, the probability is 1 minus the product of failing probabilities. For three machines where only one needs to work

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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    Reliability or Probability of success

    Rule 1 If two or more events are independent, and the success is defined as the probability that all the event occurs then the probability of success is = the product of the probability of events. For example if manufacturing plant has two machines, but to have a proper efficiency level, both machines need to work simultaneously. One machine has a probablity of working 0.90 and the second machine has the probability of working 0.80, then the probability that both will work is .80X.90 = .72.

    Rule 2 If two events are independent and success is defines as at least one event will occur, the probability of success will is equal to the probability of either one plus 1 minus that probabilty multiplied by th eother probability. For example if manufacturing plant has two machines, but to have a proper efficiency level, only one machine needs to work and the other one is used as a back up. One machine has a probability of working 0.90 and the second machine has the probability of working 0.80, then the probability of success is .80 + (1- .80) X.90 = .98.

    Rule 3- If 2 or more events are involved and success is defined as the probability that at least one of them occurs then probability of success is 1 p For example three machines have probability of .90, .80, .70. Only one machine is needed to work and the other 2 is used as back ups, the probability of success is 1 [(1-.90) x (1 - .80) x (1-.70)] = .994.

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