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Company Profile

American Airlines, Inc. (AA) is a US-based airline and also the largest airline in the
world in terms of total passengers-miles transported and fleet size, and the second-largest
airline in the world (behind Air France-KLM) in terms of total operating revenues. A
wholly owned subsidiary of the AMR Corporation, the airline is headquartered in Fort
Worth, Texas, adjacent to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. American operates
scheduled flights throughout the United States, as well as flights to Canada, Latin
America, the Caribbean, Western Europe, Japan, China, and India. The Chairman,
President, and CEO of AA are Gerard Arpey. In 2005, the airline flew more than 138
billion revenue passenger miles (RPMs).

Competitors
DAL = Delta Air Lines Inc.
NWA = Northwest Airlines Corp.
UAUA = UAL Corporation

Past 3years Income Statement


Annual Data

All numbers in thousands

PERIOD ENDING

31-Dec-07

31-Dec-06

31-Dec-05

Total Revenue

22,935,000

22,563,000

20,712,000

Cost of Revenue

16,900,000

16,583,000

15,719,000

6,035,000

5,980,000

4,993,000

3,868,000

3,763,000

3,922,000

1,202,000

1,157,000

1,164,000

--

965,000

1,060,000

(93,000)

Gross Profit

Operating Expenses
Research Development
Selling General and Administrative
Non Recurring
Others

Total Operating Expenses

Operating Income or Loss

Income from Continuing Operations


Total Other Income/Expenses Net

433,000

172,000

124,000

1,398,000

1,232,000

31,000

Interest Expense

894,000

1,001,000

892,000

Income Before Tax

504,000

231,000

(861,000)

Income Tax Expense

Minority Interest

504,000

231,000

(861,000)

Earnings Before Interest And Taxes

Net Income From Continuing Ops

Non-recurring Events
Discontinued Operations

Extraordinary Items

Effect Of Accounting Changes

Other Items

Net Income

504,000

Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments

Net Income Applicable To Common Shares

231,000

(861,000)

$504,000

$231,000

($861,000)

Past 3years Balance Sheet


Annual Data

All numbers in thousands

PERIOD ENDING

31-Dec-07 31-Dec-06

31-Dec-05

Assets
Current Assets
Cash And Cash Equivalents

576,000

589,000

648,000

Short Term Investments

4,803,000

4,594,000

3,676,000

Net Receivables

1,027,000

988,000

991,000

Inventory

601,000

506,000

515,000

Other Current Assets

222,000

225,000

334,000

7,229,000

6,902,000

6,164,000

Total Current Assets


Long Term Investments
Property Plant and Equipment

17,153,000 17,763,000 18,546,000

Goodwill
Intangible Assets
Accumulated Amortization
Other Assets
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges

Total Assets

1,156,000

1,167,000

1,194,000

3,033,000

3,313,000

3,591,000

28,571,000 29,145,000 29,495,000

Liabilities
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable

7,434,000

7,156,000

7,081,000

Short/Current Long Term Debt


Other Current Liabilities

Total Current Liabilities

1,049,000

1,349,000

1,239,000

8,483,000

8,505,000

8,320,000

Long Term Debt

10,093,000 12,041,000 13,456,000

Other Liabilities

7,018,000

8,833,000

8,776,000

320,000

372,000

421,000

Minority Interest

Negative Goodwill

Deferred Long Term Liability Charges

Total Liabilities

25,914,000 29,751,000 30,973,000

Stockholders' Equity
Misc Stocks Options Warrants

Redeemable Preferred Stock

Preferred Stock

Common Stock

255,000

228,000

195,000

Retained Earnings

(1,390,000) (1,894,000) (2,173,000)

Treasury Stock

(367,000)

(367,000)

(779,000)

Capital Surplus

3,489,000

2,718,000

2,258,000

670,000

(1,291,000)

(979,000)

2,657,000

(606,000)

(1,478,000)

Other Stockholder Equity

Total Stockholder Equity

Net Tangible Assets

$1,501,000 ($1,773,000) ($2,672,000)

Past 3years Cash Flow


Annual Data
PERIOD ENDING
Net Income

All numbers in thousands

31-Dec-07

31-Dec-06

31-Dec-05

504,000

231,000

(861,000)

Operating Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In

Depreciation

1,202,000

1,157,000

1,164,000

Adjustments To Net Income

(42,000)

101,000

30,000

Changes In Accounts Receivables

(41,000)

3,000

(156,000)

Changes In Liabilities

480,000

420,000

879,000

Changes In Inventories

(128,000)

(7,000)

(59,000)

Changes In Other Operating Activities

(40,000)

34,000

27,000

1,935,000

1,939,000

1,024,000

Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities

Investing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In


Capital Expenditures

(714,000)

(530,000)

(681,000)

Investments

207,000

(918,000)

(867,000)

Other Cash flows from Investing Activities

273,000

83,000

9,000

(234,000)

(1,365,000)

(1,539,000)

Total Cash Flows From Investing Activities

Financing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In


Dividends Paid
Sale Purchase of Stock
Net Borrowings
Other Cash Flows from Financing Activities

Total Cash Flows From Financing Activities

587,000

630,000

279,000

(2,321,000)

(1,366,000)

254,000

59,000

145,000

(1,675,000)

(591,000)

533,000

$26,000

($17,000)

$18,000

Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes

Change In Cash and Cash Equivalents

Summary of 3years Cash Flow


Cash flow measures the actual condition of the company. The net income of
American Airline in year 2007 increased approximately twice from the year 2006. In the

operating activities their inventories and liabilities was increased. After that American
Airline had a huge cash inflow from the operating activities.

In the investing activities, a huge amount of cash was outflow, because their net
borrowing increased.
At the cash flow of year 2007, American Airline has little amount of cash and
cash equivalents.

Option Chain Data For Various Expiraton Dates


Apr 08

Option Chain for AMR Corp. (AMR)


Calls

Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int Strike

@AMRDI 2.50

4.10 4.30

40

6.00

Puts

Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int

@AMRPI

0.05
0.12 -0.03

0.10

1717

@AMRDJ 3.00

3.10 3.30

548

7.00

@AMRPJ

0.10

10

1424

@AMRDK 2.25

0.25 2.20 2.30

90

1081

8.00

@AMRPK 0.15

0.10 0.15

35

2313

@AMRDL 1.40

0.15 1.35 1.50 294

3019

9.00

@AMRPL 0.30 -0.05 0.25 0.30

27

1522

@AMRDB 0.70

0.05 0.70 0.80 424

7518

10.00 @AMRPB 0.60 -0.05 0.55 0.65 1300

2388

@AMRDM 0.35

0.05 0.30 0.40 131

4688

11.00 @AMRPM 1.25 -0.50 1.15 1.25 760

856

0.10 0.20

97

4255

12.00 @AMRPN 2.05 -0.50 1.95 2.05

922

@AMRDO 0.10

0.05 0.10

1342

13.00 @AMRPO 3.10

2.85 3.00

1348

@AMRDP 0.10

0.10

5748

14.00 @AMRPP 5.04

3.80 4.10

1042

@AMRDC 0.05
May 08

0.10

1632

15.00 @AMRPC 5.50

4.80 5.00

139

@AMRDN 0.15

Option Chain for AMR Corp. (AMR)


Calls

Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int Strike

@AMREI 4.10

4.10 4.40

65

6.00

@AMREJ 3.30

0.10 3.20 3.50

569

@AMREK 2.675 0.275 2.50 2.65

66

@AMREL 1.90

24

Puts

Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int

@AMRQI

0.20

0.10 0.20

733

7.00

@AMRQJ

0.30

0.20 0.30

1145

7.50

@AMRQU

1408

8.00

@AMRQK 0.45 -0.05 0.35 0.45

10

2301

2851

9.00

@AMRQL 0.70 -0.18 0.65 0.75 250

2185

@AMREB 1.25 -0.05 1.25 1.35 1109

6280

10.00 @AMRQB 1.30 -0.05 1.10 1.20 1021

4938

@AMREM 0.90

28

10615

11.00 @AMRQM 2.00

9226

@AMREV 0.50 -0.05 0.45 0.55 125

8950

12.50 @AMRQV 2.80 -0.30 2.80 2.90 110

4244

@AMREU
0.15 1.80 1.95
-

0.85 0.95

1.65 1.80

@AMREP 0.25 -0.10 0.25 0.35

23

2118

14.00 @AMRQP 4.20 -0.20 4.00 4.30

93

1412

@AMREC 0.20

15

14103

15.00 @AMRQC 5.10 -0.30 4.90 5.20

56

8271

0.15 0.25

Aug 08

Option Chain for AMR Corp. (AMR)


Calls

Last

@AMRHI

4.60

@AMRHJ
@AMRHU

Chg

Bid

Ask

Vol

Open Int

Strike

Puts

Last

Chg

Bid

Ask

Vol

4.60 5.00

103

6.00

@AMRTI

0.65

-0.05 0.60 0.70

60

3.70

4.00 4.20

319

7.00

@AMRTJ

0.95

0.85 0.95

3.60

3.60 3.80

144

7.50

@AMRTU

1.15

1.00 1.10

@AMRHK

3.30

0.10 3.30 3.50

273

8.00

@AMRTK

1.25

-0.15 1.15 1.25

60

@AMRHL

2.55

2.70 2.80

701

9.00

@AMRTL

1.55

-0.35 1.55 1.65

@AMRHB

2.15

2.20 2.35

21

1827

10.00

@AMRTB

2.15

-0.15 2.00 2.10

@AMRHM

1.80

0.05

1.75 1.90

33

428

11.00

@AMRTM 2.85

2.55 2.70

@AMRHN

1.55

0.15

1.40 1.55

869

12.00

@AMRTN

3.20

-0.20 3.20 3.30

@AMRHV

1.30

0.05

1.25 1.40

552

12.50

@AMRTV

3.60

-0.43 3.50 3.70

20

@AMRHO

1.15

1.10 1.25

696

13.00

@AMRTO

4.41

3.90 4.00

@AMRHP

0.95

0.05

0.85 1.00

10

1406

14.00

@AMRTP

5.00

4.60 4.80

@AMRHC

0.70

-0.05 0.70 0.80

70

2162

15.00

@AMRTC

5.90

5.40 5.60

Nov 08

Option Chain for AMR Corp. (AMR)


Calls

Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int Strike

Puts

Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int

@AMRKI 4.20

5.10 5.30

30

6.00

@AMRWI

1.20

0.95 1.05

91

@AMRKJ 4.00

4.40 4.70

35

7.00

@AMRWJ

1.45

1.25 1.40

326

@AMRKK 3.50

3.80 4.00

54

8.00

@AMRWK 1.90

1.65 1.80

105

@AMRKL 3.30

3.30 3.50

377

9.00

@AMRWL 2.20 -0.55 2.10 2.20

58

196

@AMRKB 2.90

0.10 2.85 3.00

10

483

10.00 @AMRWB 3.01

2.60 2.75

420

@AMRKM 2.30

2.35 2.55

1021

11.00 @AMRWM 3.60

3.10 3.30

190

@AMRKN 2.05 0.05 2.00 2.15

40

412

12.00 @AMRWN 4.30

3.70 3.90

222

@AMRKO 1.75 -0.15 1.70 1.85

1142

13.00 @AMRWO 4.90

4.40 4.60

140

@AMRKC 1.25 0.05 1.15 1.30

20

147

15.00 @AMRWC 6.04 -0.46 5.80 6.00

62

Jan 09

Option Chain for AMR Corp. (AMR)


Calls

Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int Strike

@VMRAU 4.70

Puts

Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int

4.40 4.60

367

7.50

10725

@VMRAB 3.10 -0.20 3.10 3.30

27

5213

10.00 @VMRMB 3.13

2.85 3.10

44613

7826

15.00 @VMRMC 6.53

6.00 6.30

31168

@VMRAC 1.35

1.40 1.55

@VMRMU 1.75 -0.20 1.70 1.85

Jan 10

Option Chain for AMR Corp. (AMR)


Calls

Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int Strike

Puts

Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int

@WARAU 5.00

5.20 5.60

20

7.50 @WARMU 3.20

2.45 2.75

1493

@WARAB 4.00

4.20 4.50

1221

10.00 @WARMB 4.30

4.10 4.20

2181

@WARAC 2.60

2.70 2.95

3769

15.00 @WARMC 7.30

7.10 7.50

8461

Ratios Analysis for 3years


Annual Financial Ratios

Period Ending:

12/31/2007

12/31/2006

12/31/2005

Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio

85%

81%

74%

Quick Ratio

76%

73%

64%

Cash Ratio

63%

61%

52%

3,816%

4,459%

4,022%

26%

27%

24%

Operating Margin

4%

5%

-0%

Pre-Tax Margin

2%

1%

-4%

Inventory Turnover

Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin

Profit Margin

2%

1%

-4%

Pre-Tax ROE

19%

-38%

58%

After Tax ROE

19%

-38%

58%

Key Ratios & Statistics


Price & Volume
Recent Price $
52 Week High $
52 Week Low $
Avg. Daily Vol. (Mil) (RTMA)
Beta
Share Related Items
Mkt. Cap. (Mil) $
Shares Out (Mil)
Float (Mil)
Dividend Information
Yield %
Annual Dividend
Payout Ratio (TTM) %
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio (MRQ)
Current Ratio (MRQ)
LT Debt/Equity (MRQ)
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ)

9.85
34.00
8.10
226.242
2.89

2,456.695
249.411
249.000

N/A
0.00
0.00

.78
.85
379.87
419.35

Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM)
Price/Sales (TTM)
Price/Book (MRQ)
Price/Cash Flow (TTM)
Per Share Data
Earnings (TTM) $
Sales (TTM) $
Book Value (MRQ) $
Cash Flow (TTM) $
Cash (MRQ) $
Mgmt Effectiveness
Return on Equity (TTM)
Return on Assets (TTM)
Return on Investment (TTM)
Profitability
Gross Margin (TTM) %
Operating Margin (TTM) %
Profit Margin (TTM) %

5.77
.11
.93
1.44

1.71
80.05
10.65
5.96
18.18

2.48
1.75
2.48

21.83
4.21
2.20

Mil = Millions RTMA = Rolling Three Month Average


TTM = Trailing Twelve Months MRQ = Most Recent Quarter
Asterisk (*) indicates numbers are derived from Earnings Announcements
Pricing and volume data as of 04/01/2008

Summary of Ratios Analysis for 3years Financial


Trends
Summary for NASDAQ analyst information

From consensus recommendation, we can see that the most of the analysts suggest
that hold the stock. Out of the fourteen analysts, four analysts suggest to hold the stock.
From the twelve months price ranges, we see that the analysts the price of the
stock may move upward from $10.16 to $ 14.
If we look into the earnings surprise, the earning per share (EPS) was moving
downward in December 2007. But the reported EPS is less than the estimated EPS, the
company was minimize its lose. American Airlines reported EPA is greater that
reported EPS most of the time, which indicates it is performing well.
Out of 14 analysts twelve have changed their opinion about the company. Eleven
analysts change their opinion about stock price which the price of the stock will
downward.
From earning growth, we can see that the industrys earnings growth is negative
which indicates that Airline industry is not performing well comparative to other
industry. It is also a negative impression about the industry. But American Airline may
do well in this industry because of its reputation and large air-crafts.
From the P/E ratio, we find that American Airlines P/E ratio is nil. Because, it
does not give any dividend.
From the consensus earning forecasts, we see that fourteen analysts forecast the
mean EPS for the year 2008 will be -3.36 and twelve analysts forecast the mean EPS for
the year 2009 will be -1.13.
We can see in the technical chart the price of the stock has a bearish trend before
the January 2008. But after the April 2008, the price may go up because in every summer
it performs well and makes a huge profit.

The Actual Value of Call and Put Options of AMR


Aug 08
Feb 08 | Mar 08 | Apr 08 | May 08 | Aug 08 | Nov 08 | Jan 09 | Jan 10 | All

Option Chain for AMR Corp. (AMR)


Calls

Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int Strike

@AMRHI 4.60

4.60 5.00

@AMRHK 3.30

0.10 3.30 3.50

@AMRHB 2.15

2.20 2.35

103

6.00

Puts
@AMRTI

Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int


0.65 -0.05 0.60 0.70

60

1034

273

8.00 @AMRTK 1.25 -0.15 1.15 1.25

60

1371

21

1827

10.00 @AMRTB 2.15 -0.15 2.00 2.10

5471

0.05 0.85 1.00

10

1406

14.00 @AMRTP 5.00

4.60 4.80

707

@AMRHC 0.70 -0.05 0.70 0.80

70

2162

15.00 @AMRTC 5.90

5.40 5.60

835

@AMRHP 0.95

Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Aug 08 are given
below for the highest open interests.

S = $10.16
X = $15
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.32
T = 7months = .53 years

ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
x
d1 =
T

ln 10.16 + ( 0.05 + (0.5 .3932 ) 0.53


15
=
0.6271 0.53
= 0.3896 + 0.1307
0.4565
= 0.5671
d2 = d1 T
= 0.5671 0.4565
= 1.0236

N (d1 ) = N (0.5671)
= N (0.56) 0.71 N (0.56) N (0.57)
= 0.2877 0.71( 0.2877 0.2848 )
= 0.2856

N (d2 ) = N (1.0236)
= N (1.02) 0.36 N (1.02) N (1.03)
= 0.1539 0.36 ( 0.1539 0.1515 )
= 0.1530

C = SN (d1 ) Xe rT N (d2 )
= 10.16 N (0.5671) 15 e0.050.53 N (1.0236)
= 10.16 0.2856 15 0.9738 0.1530
= 2.902 2.235
= 0.667
N (d1 ) = 1 N (d1 )
= 1 N (0.5671)
= 1 0.2856
= 0.7144
N ( d 2 ) = 1 N (d 2 )
= 1 N (1.0236)
= 1 0.1530
= 0.8470
P = Xe rT N (d2 ) SN (d1 )
= 15 e0.050.53 0.8470 10.16 0.7144
= 12.37 7.14
= 5.23

Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Aug 08 are given
below for the 2nd highest open interests.

S = $10.16
X = $10
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.3230
T = 7months = 0.58 years

N (d1 ) = N (0.3211)
= N (0.32) + 0.11 N (0.33) N (0.32)
= 0.6255 + 0.11( 0.6293 0.6255 )
= 0.6259

N (d2 ) = N (0.1354)
= N (0.13) 0.54 N (0.13) N (0.12)
= 0.4483 0.54 ( 0.4483 0.4443 )
= 0.4461

ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
x
d1 =
T

ln 10.16 + ( 0.05 + (0.5 .3932 ) 0.58


10
=
0.6271 0.58
= 0.0159 + 0.1307
0.4565
= 0.3211

d2 = d1 T
= 0.3211 0.4565
= 0.1354
C = SN (d1 ) Xe rT N (d2 )
= 10.16 N (0.3211) 10 e0.050.53 N (0.1354)
= 10.16 0.6259 10 0.9738 0.4461
= 6.359 4.344
= 2.015
N (d1 ) = 1 N (d1 )
= 1 N (0.3211)
= 1 0.6259
= 0.3741
N ( d 2 ) = 1 N (d 2 )
= 1 N (0.1254)
= 1 0.4461
= 0.5539
P = Xe rT N (d2 ) SN (d1 )
= 10 e0.050.53 0.5539 10.16 0.3741
= 5.394 3.801
= 1.59

Nov 08

Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Nov 08 are given
below for the highest open interests.

S = $10.16
X = $13
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.3204

T = 10months = 0.83 years


ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
d1 = x
T

ln 10.16 + ( 0.05 + (0.5.3932 ) 0.83


13
=
0.6271 0.83
= 0.2465 + 0.2047
0.5713
= 0.0732

d2 = d1 T
= 0.0732 0.5713
= 0.5445
N (d1 ) = N (0.0732)
= N (0.07) 0.32 N (0.07) N (0.08)

= 0.5279 0.32 ( 0.5279 0.5319 )


= 0.5292

N (d2 ) = N (0.5445)
= N (0.54) 0.54 N (0.54) N (0.55)
= 0.2946 0.54 ( 0.2946 0.2877 )
= 0.2909

C = SN (d1 ) Xe rT N (d2 )
= 10.16 N (0.0732) 13 e0.050.83 N (0.5445)
= 10.16 0.5292 13 0.9593 0.2909
= 5.376 3.628
= 1.748
N (d1 ) = 1 N (d1 )
= 1 N (0.0732)
= 1 0.5292
= 0.4708
N ( d 2 ) = 1 N (d 2 )
= 1 N (0.5445)
= 1 0.2909
= 0.7091
P = Xe rT N (d2 ) SN (d1 )
= 13 e0.050.83 0.7091 10.16 0.4708
= 8.84 4.78
= 4.06

Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Nov 08 are given
below for the 2nd highest open interests.

S = $10.16
X = $11
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.3230
T = 10months = 0.83 years
ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
x
d1 =
T

ln 10.16 + ( 0.05 + (0.5 .3932 ) 0.83


11
=
0.6271 0.83
= 0.079 + 0.2047
0.5713
= 0.2198
d2 = d1 T
= 0.2198 0.5713
= 0.3515

N (d1 ) = N (0.2198)
= N (0.21) + 0.98 N (0.22) N (0.21)
= 0.5832 + 0.98 ( 0.5871 0.5832 )
= 0.5870

N (d2 ) = N (0.3515)
= N (0.35) 0.15 N (0.35) N (0.36)
= 0.3632 0.15 ( 0.3632 0.3594 )
= 0.3526

C = SN (d1 ) Xe rT N (d2 )
= 10.16 N (0.2198) 11 e0.050.83 N (0.3515)
= 10.16 0.5870 11 0.9593 0.3526
= 5.95 3.72
= 2.23
N (d1 ) = 1 N (d1 )
= 1 N (0.2198)
= 1 0.5870
= 0.4130
N ( d 2 ) = 1 N (d 2 )
= 1 N (0.3515)
= 1 0.3526
= 0.5474
P = Xe rT N (d2 ) SN (d1 )
= 11 e0.050.83 0.5474 10.16 0.4130
= 5.777 4.196
= 1.58

Jan 09

Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Jan 09 are given
below for the highest open interests.

S = $10.16
X = $15
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.32
T = 12months = 1years
ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
x
d1 =
T

ln 10.16 + ( 0.05 + (0.5 .3932 ) 1


15
=
0.6271 1
= 0.3896 + 0.2466
0.6271
= 0.2280
d2 = d1 T
= 0.2280 0.6271
= 0.8551

N (d1 ) = N (0.2280)
= N (0.22) 0.80 N (0.22) N (0.23)
= 0.4129 0.80 ( 0.4129 0.4090 )
= 0.4098

N (d2 ) = N (0.8551)
= N (0.85) 0.51 N (0.85) N (0.86)

= 0.1977 0.51( 0.1977 0.1949 )


= 0.1963
C = SN (d1 ) Xe rT N (d2 )
= 10.16 N (0.2280) 15 e0.051 N (0.8551)
= 10.16 0.4098 15 0.9512 0.1963
= 4.1636 2.8
= 1.3636
N (d1 ) = 1 N (d1 )
= 1 N (0.2280)
= 1 0.4098
= 0.5902
N ( d 2 ) = 1 N (d 2 )
= 1 N (0.8551)
= 1 0.1963
= 0.8037
P = Xe rT N (d2 ) SN (d1 )
= 15 e0.051 0.8037 10.16 0.5902
= 11.47 5.996
= 5.47

Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Jan 09 are given
below for the 2nd highest open interests.

S = $10.16
X = $10
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.32
T = 12months = 1years
ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
x
d1 =
T

ln 10.16 + ( 0.05 + (0.5 .3932 ) 1


10
=
0.6271 1
= 0.0159 + 0.2466
0.6271
= 0.4186
d2 = d1 T
= 0.4186 0.6271
= 0.2085

N (d1 ) = N (0.4186)
= N (0.41) + 0.86 N (0.42) N (0.41)
= 0.6591 + 0.86 ( 0.6628 0.6591)
= 0.6623

N (d2 ) = N (0.2085)
= N (0.20) 0.85 N (0.20) N (0.21)

= 0.4207 0.85 ( 0.4207 0.4168 )


= 0.4174
C = SN (d1 ) Xe rT N (d2 )
= 10.16 N (0.4186) 10 e0.051 N (0.2085)
= 10.16 0.6623 10 0.9512 0.4174
= 6.73 3.97
= 2.76
N (d1 ) = 1 N (d1 )
= 1 N (0.4186)
= 1 0.6623
= 0.3377
N ( d 2 ) = 1 N (d 2 )
= 1 N (0.2085)
= 1 0.4174
= 0.5826
P = Xe rT N (d2 ) SN (d1 )
= 10 e0.051 0.5826 10.16 0.3377
= 5.54 3.43
= 2.11

Jan 10
Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Jan 10 are given
below for the highest open interests.

S = $10.16
X = $15
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.32
T = 24months = 2 years
ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
x
d1 =
T

ln 10.16 + ( 0.05 + (0.5 .3932 ) 2


15
=
0.6271 2
= 0.3896 + 0.4932
0.8869
= 0.1168
d2 = d1 T
= 0.1168 0.8869
= 0.7701

N (d1 ) = N (0.1168)
= N (0.11) + 0.68 N (0.12) N (0.11)
= 0.5438 + 0.68 ( 0.5478 0.5438 )
= 0.5410

N (d2 ) = N (0.7701)
= N (0.77) 0.01 N (0.77) N (0.78)
= 0.2206 0.01( 0.2206 0.2177 )
= 0.2206

C = SN (d1 ) Xe rT N (d2 )
= 10.16 N (0.5740) 10 e0.052 N (0.3129)
= 10.16 0.5410 15 0.9048 0.2206
= 5.497 3.994
= 1.503
N (d1 ) = 1 N (d1 )
= 1 N (0.5740)
= 1 0.5410
= 0.4590
N ( d 2 ) = 1 N (d 2 )
= 1 N (0.3129)
= 1 0.2206
= 0.7794
P = Xe rT N (d2 ) SN (d1 )
= 15 e0.052 0.7794 10.16 0.4590
= 10.58 4.66
= 5.92

Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Jan 10 are given
below for the 2nd highest open interests.

S = $10.16
X = $10
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.3230
T = 24months = 2 years
ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
x
d1 =
T

ln 10.16 + ( 0.05 + (0.5 .3932 ) 2


10
=
0.6271 2
= 0.0159 + 0.4932
0.8869
= 0.5740
d2 = d1 T
= 0.5740 0.8869
= 0.3129

N (d1 ) = N (0.5740)
= N (0.57) + 0.40 N (0.58) N (0.57)
= 0.7157 + 0.40 ( 0.7190 0.7157 )
= 0.7170

N (d2 ) = N (0.3129)
= N (0.31) 0.29 N (0.31) N (0.32)
= 0.3783 0.29 ( 0.3783 0.3745 )
= 0.3771

C = SN (d1 ) Xe rT N (d2 )
= 10.16 N (0.5740) 10 e0.052 N (0.3129)
= 10.16 0.7170 10 0.9048 0.3771
= 7.2947 3.412
= 3.9827
N (d1 ) = 1 N (d1 )
= 1 N (0.5740)
= 1 0.7175
= 0.2825
N ( d 2 ) = 1 N (d 2 )
= 1 N (0.3129)
= 1 0.3771
= 0.5229
P = Xe rT N (d2 ) SN (d1 )
= 10 e0.052 0.5229 10.16 0.2825
= 4.73 2.97
= 1.76

Comparion Between Real and Actual Value


Current and Future Stock Price
Recommendation

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