Crime Data Issues

What is the Real Story?
America's Most Dangerous Cities

Center for Community Criminology and Research Center for Community Criminology and Research Center for Community Criminology and Research
THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS
Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice
No. 2 Memphis, Tenn. (Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark. metropolitan statistical area) Population: 1,295,670 Violent Crimes per 100,000: 1,218
If you saw either one of these headlines
YOU NEED TO KNOW THEY ARE WRONG.

A PARTNERSHIP OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS AND THE MEMPHIS SHELBY CRIME COMMISSION.
Why Are They Wrong?
These are not the crime numbers for the City of Memphis; INSTEAD THESE ARE NUMBERS FOR THE ENTIRE MEMPHIS MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) made up of 8 counties. IT IS THE MSA that might be ranked this way but NOT the City. MSA Counties are: Tennessee Mississippi Arkansas
Shelby County Tipton County Fayette County DeSoto County Marshall County Tate County Tunica County Crittenden County

Memphis ranks 21st in murders for 2008, FBI figures show But for other violent crimes, FBI lists the city as No. 5 By Alex Doniach (Contact), Memphis Commercial Appeal Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Fresh statistics from the FBI show the per capita murder rate in Memphis ranked 21st last year compared with other large American cities. But Memphis still ranked fifth in violent crimes in 2008, showing the city still has work to do despite a 14 percent drop in violent crime since 2006. By contrast, St. Louis topped the violent crimes list with 2,072 crimes per 100,000 residents, followed by Flint, Mich.; Oakland, Calif.; and Detroit. Memphis totaled 1,923 violent crimes per 100,000 residents, a tally that includes murders, rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults. If you saw this story
YOU NEED TO KNOW It is INACCURATE.

Why Are They Wrong? This is the preliminary FBI Uniform Crime Report for 2008.
So these figures are already six (6) months old. The FBI does not rank cities- that is something the press or some publishers (for example, Congressional Quarterly) do by calculating crime rates (crimes per 100,000 residents) Unfortunately reporters often dont do it right- HERE THEY FAILED TO ACCOUNT FOR CITIES THAT DIDNT REPORT VIOLENT CRIME TOTALS for example, MOST ILLINOIS CITIES- INCLUDING CHICAGO DID NOT HAVE A VIOLENT CRIME TOTAL SO THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE RANKINGS.
The FBI in the Uniform Crime Reports Cautions Against Ranking Each year when Crime in the United States is published, some entities use reported figures to compile rankings of cities and counties. These rough rankings provide no insight into the numerous variables that mold crime in a particular town, city, county, state, or region. Consequently, they lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions
American Society of Criminology Position on Ranking

The American Society of Criminology, the professional association of criminologists, has taken a strong position against using UCR numbers to rank cities: Official policy position of the Executive Board of the American Society of Criminology with respect to the use of Uniform Crime Reports data: "Be it resolved, that the Executive Board of the American Society of Criminology opposes the use of Uniform Crime Reports data to rank American cities as 'dangerous' or 'safe' without proper consideration of the Be it resolved, that the are invalid, damaging, and limitations of these data. Such rankings Executive Board of irresponsible. They fail to account for the many conditions affecting crime the American crime, large community differences rates, the mis-measurement ofSociety of Criminology in crime within cities, and the useaffecting individuals' crime risk. City crime opposes the factors but they can harm Crime they tarnish and of Uniform the cities Reports rankings make no one safer, divert attentionrankthe individual and community characteristics that data to from American cities as 'dangerous' elevate crime in all cities. The Executive Board of the American Society of or 'safe' without proper consideration of Criminology urges media outlets to subject city crime rankings tothe scientifically sound evaluation and will make crime experts available to limitations of these data. assist in this vital public responsibility." Such rankings are Adoptedinvalid, damaging, and irresponsible. November 13, 2007
Why the Caution Against Ranking? Comparing UCR data to rank cities is like comparing APPLES TO ORGANGES Examples of UCR Limitations Increases resulting from better reporting and recording.
Increases in crime can at times be in part explained by better communications, improvements in the professionalization of police departments, and better recording and reporting of offenses
Varying definitions of crime at the local level.

The FBI and local law enforcement agencies do not always interpret the index crimes in the same manner. Often different jurisdictions have different definitions of an offense.
Varying methods of recording crime at the local level.

Studies have indicated that some police departments may only report threefourths of the complainants received for certain crimes
The UCR is an unweighted index.

Under the UCR a murder is given the same weight as an aggravated assault or a bicycle theft. Baltimore technically had a lower violent crime rate then Memphis, but with a smaller population had 100 more murders.

The 25 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America
Walletpop.com has compiled a list (using FBI crime stats) of the "25 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods" in America. Two of them are in Memphis
If you saw this story
YOU NEED TO KNOW THIS IS BALONEY- THEY CANT DO IT.

What is wrong with what they area doing?
What they are using is the FBIs Uniform Crime Reports (published annually)- however, this is city level data only there is no breakdown in the data to a zip code, census tract, census block group, neighborhood, or whatever since NO address data is provided in the UCR. Remember, how the FBI cautions against ranking what they are doing here is much worse.
They are NOT collecting data- all they are doing is taking the UCR data which can be downloaded as an Excel spreadsheet from the FBI report. The UCR simply provides aggregate data for example, how many aggravated assaults occurred in the city of Memphis in 2008- so it CANNOT be used for neighborhood analysis.
Crime density varies tremendously by geography, population density, type of housing, poverty rates, and a multiplicity of other variables without local data (specific police incident data) you cant analyze neighborhood crime patterns. They try to make it sound scientific by saying they use 25 algorithms (formulas) but without accurate data it just alchemy.
Note how they dont ell you: (1) what are the formulas, (2) what variables (factors) are used in the formulas, and (3) the source for the data.
They say their modeling accuracy is 87%- BUT they DONT tell you (1) their evaluation methodology, (2) how many sample neighborhoods did they use, (3) where were these neighborhoods located, and (4) how without actual local police data did they determine this accuracy level.

FBI Uniform Crime Reports
FBI Uniform Crime Reports

Crime known to the police include all incidents either reported to or observed by the police in categories designated as Part I offenses (sometimes referred to as the Index Crimes.) These were selected for analysis because of their seriousness, frequency of occurrence, and likelihood of being reported to the police.
Part I offenses are
Criminal homicide Forcible rape Roberry Aggravated Assault Burglary Larceny-theft (excluding motor vehicle theft) Motor Vehicle Theft Arson[1]
However, data on arson are generally considered unreliable, and are generally not used in calculating the Crime Index discussed below.
[1] Arson was added in October 1978 by direction of Congress.

Crime Data Issues

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What is the Real Story?

America's Most Dangerous Cities

THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS

Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice

If you saw either one of these headlines

YOU NEED TO KNOW THEY ARE WRONG.

Why Are They Wrong?

THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS

Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice

What is the Real Story?

THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS

Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice

YOU NEED TO KNOW It is INACCURATE.

THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS

Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice

THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS

Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice

American Society of Criminology Position on Ranking

THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS

Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice

THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS

Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice

Varying definitions of crime at the local level.

Varying methods of recording crime at the local level.

The UCR is an unweighted index.

What is the Real Story?

THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS

Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice

If you saw this story

YOU NEED TO KNOW THIS IS BALONEY- THEY CANT DO IT.

What is wrong with what they area doing?

THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS

Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice

What is wrong with what they area doing?

THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS

Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice

What is wrong with what they area doing?

THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS

Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice

What is wrong with what they area doing?

THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS

Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice

THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS

FBI Uniform Crime Reports

FBI Uniform Crime Reports

THE UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS

Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice

[1] Arson was added in October 1978 by direction of Congress.

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