Current situation

APP (A/P)
AAI
ACP (A/R)
day per year
OC investments
annual interest

30
110
75
365

industry standards
39
83
75

26.500.0
00
15% p.a

a. Current situation
OC = AAI + ACP = 110 + 75 days = 185 days

AAI = 110 days

APP= 30 days

ACP = 75 days
CCC = OC APP = 185 30 =

155 days
Resources Investment Need: (OC Investment/OC) x CCC = (26.500.000/365) x 155
= 11.253.425
b. Industry Standard
OC = AAI + ACP = 83 + 75 days = 158 days

AAI = 83 days
APP= 39 days

ACP = 75 days
CCC = OC APP = 158 39 =

119 days
Resources Investment Need: (OC Investment/OC) x CCC = (26.500.000/158) x 119
=
8.639.726
c. Operational Inefficiency
Resources Investment Need = 11.253.425 - 8.639.726 = 2.613.699
d. (1)
new ACP
new OC
new CCC

45
128
89
OC = AAI + ACP = 110 + 45 days = 128 days

AAI = 110 days

ACP = 45 days

APP= 30 days

CCC = OC APP = 128 39 =

89 days
New Investment Need = (OC Investment/OC) x CCC = (26.500.000/365) x 89 =
6.461.644
Resources Investment Need = 8.639.726 - 6.461.644 = 2.178.082
(2)
40.000.
sales
discount

000
credit terms 3/10, nett

taken
45% 60
diskon
3%
revenue reduced = 3% x 40.000.000 x 45% = 540.000
(3) Variable cost = 80% x 40.000.000 = 32.000.000
A/R Turn Over 1 = 365/75 = 4,866666667

Investment A/R = 6.575.342

A/R Turn Over 2 = 365/45 = 8,111111111

Investment A/R = 3.945.205

Investment A/R = 2.630.137

(4) Bad Debt Expenses 1 = 2% x 40.000.000 = 800.000
Bad Debt Expenses 2 = 1,5% x 40.000.000 = 600.000
800.000 600.000 = 200.000
(5) Cost of giving up cash discount = (CD/(100%-CD)) x 365/N
= (3%/(100%-3%)) x 365/(60-10)
= 22,58%
Cost of fund: 15% x 6.461.644 =

969.247 tnp diskon

Cost of fund: 540.000 dg diskon

e. Rekomendasi: Mempersingkat Average Age of Inventory (AAI) dengan metode
just in time dan memperpendek layout aktivitas operasi.. Kemudian dengan
meningkatkan

periode

Average

Payment

Periode

(APP)

dengan

memperpanjang periode pembayaran hutang atau dengan memeperpendek

ACP dengan memberikan cash discount sehingga dapat memperpendek siklus
konversi kas (CCC) sesuai dengan standar produksi yang ada. Dengan
demikian proses operasional Teresa Leal dapat berjalan lebih efektif dan efisien

ANALISA SENSITIVITAS
diket: var cost 40%dari sales
tax 40%

CURRENT SITUATION
unit
sales price
sales revenue
var.cost
fix cost
depr
EBIT
Income tax
EAT
Term cash flow
Operating Cash flow
NPV

1
4.000
50
200.000
140.000
30.000
21.450
8.550
3.420
5.130

(67.000)
4.245

3
4.000
50
200.000
140.000
30.000
29.250
750
300
450

26.580

29.700

4.000
50
200.000
140.000
30.000
9.750
20.250
8.100
12.150
9.820
31.720

Jika jumlah unit yang dijual turun 10% menjadi:

CURRENT SITUATION
unit
sales price
sales revenue
var.cost
fix cost
depr
EBIT
Income tax
EAT
Term cash flow
Operating Cash flow
NPV

1
3.600
50
180.000
126.000
30.000
21.450
2.550
1.020
1.530
(67.000)
(4.553)

22.980

2
3
3.600
3.600
50
50
180.000 180.000
126.000 126.000
30.000
30.000
29.250
9.750
(5.250) 14.250
(2.100)
5.700
(3.150)
8.550
9.820
26.100
28.120

Jika jumlah unit yang dijual naik 10% menjadi:

CURRENT SITUATION
unit
sales price
sales revenue
var.cost
fix cost
depr
EBIT
Income tax
EAT
Term cash flow
Operating Cash flow
NPV

1
2
3
4.400
4.400
4.400
50
50
50
220.000 220.000 220.000
154.000 154.000 154.000
30.000 30.000 30.000
21.450 29.250
9.750
14.550
6.750 26.250
5.820
2.700 10.500
8.730
4.050 15.750
9.820
(67.000) 30.180 33.300 35.320
13.042

Jika harga naik 10% menjadi:

CURRENT SITUATION
unit
sales price
sales revenue
var.cost
fix cost
depr
EBIT
Income tax
EAT
Term cash flow
Operating Cash flow
NPV

1
4.000
55
220.000
154.000
30.000
21.450
14.550
5.820
8.730

(67.000)
13.042

3
4.000
55
220.000
154.000
30.000
29.250
6.750
2.700
4.050

30.180

4.000
55
220.000
154.000
30.000
9.750
26.250
10.500
15.750
9.820
35.320

33.300

Jika harga turun 10% menjadi:

CURRENT SITUATION
unit
sales price
sales revenue
var.cost
fix cost
depr
EBIT
Income tax
EAT
Term cash flow
Operating Cash flow
NPV

1
4.000
45
180.000
126.000
30.000
21.450
2.550
1.020
1.530
(67.000)
(4.553)

22.980

2
3
4.000
4.000
45
45
180.000 180.000
126.000 126.000
30.000
30.000
29.250
9.750
(5.250) 14.250
(2.100)
5.700
(3.150)
8.550
9.820
26.100
28.120

Jika biaya variabel naik dari 70% menjadi 80% dari sales revenue menjadi:
CURRENT SITUATION
unit
sales price
sales revenue
var.cost
fix cost
depr
EBIT
Income tax
EAT
Term cash flow
Operating Cash flow
NPV

(67.000)
(25.080)

1
4.000
50
200.000
160.000
30.000
21.450
(11.450)
(4.580)
(6.870)
14.580

3
4.000
50
200.000
160.000
30.000
29.250
(19.250)
(7.700)
(11.550)
17.700

4.000
50
200.000
160.000
30.000
9.750
250
100
150
9.820
19.720

biaya variabel turun dari 70% menjadi 60% dari sales revenue menjadi:
CURRENT SITUATION
unit
sales price
sales revenue
var.cost
fix cost
depr
EBIT
Income tax
EAT
Term cash flow
Operating Cash flow
NPV

Moderat

(67.000)
33.569

Vol. Penjualan
-10%
+10%

4.245

(4.553)

13.042

-10%

1
4.000
50
200.000
120.000
30.000
21.450
28.550
11.420
17.130

2
4.000
50
200.000
120.000
30.000
29.250
20.750
8.300
12.450

38.580

41.700

3
4.000
50
200.000
120.000
30.000
9.750
40.250
16.100
24.150
9.820
43.720

Harga Jual
+10%
13.042

Biaya Variabel
+10%

-10%
(4.553)

33.569

skenario analysis pesimis: vol turun, biaya var naik

skenario analysis optimis: vol naik, biaya var turun

pesimis
CURRENT SITUATION
unit
sales price
sales revenue
var.cost
fix cost
depr
EBIT
Incometax
EAT
Term cash flow
Operating Cash flow
NPV

(67.000)
(30.945)

1
3.600
50
180.000
144.000
30.000
21.450
(15.450)
(6.180)
(9.270)
12.180

3
3.600
50
180.000
144.000
30.000
29.250
(23.250)
(9.300)
(13.950)
15.300

3.600
50
180.000
144.000
30.000
9.750
(3.750)
(1.500)
(2.250)
9.820
17.320

(25.080)

optimis
CURRENT SITUATION
unit
sales price
sales revenue
var.cost
fix cost
depr
EBIT
Income tax
EAT
Term cash flow
Operating Cash flow
NPV
scenario
optimis
moderat
pesimis

1
4.400
50
220.000
132.000
30.000
21.450
36.550
14.620
21.930

2
4.400
50
220.000
132.000
30.000
29.250
28.750
11.500
17.250

43.380

46.500

(67.000)
45.299

probability
25%
50%
25%
100%

NPV
45.299
4.245
(30.945)

3
4.400
50
220.000
132.000
30.000
9.750
48.250
19.300
28.950
9.820
48.520

expctd NPV
NPV-expctd NPV Prob -(exp NPV)^2
11.325
33.974
391.805.967
2.122
2.122
1.074.913
(7.736)
(23.209)
335.910.466
5.711
728.791.346
stdev
cv

26.996
4,73