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G ARIN H ART Y ANG

RESEARCH GROUP

1 7 2 4 Con n ecti cut Aven ue, N.W . W ash in gt on , DC 2 00 09 Tel : (2 02 ) 2 34 -5 57 0 Fax: (2 0 2 ) 23 2 -81 3 4

MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM: DATE: RE: Educating Maryland Kids Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group September 20, 2012 Recent statewide survey on Question 4

From September 14 to 16, 2012, Garin-Hart-Yang interviewed a representative statewide sample of 503 likely Maryland voters (margin of error +4.5 percentage points). Our survey results show that Question 4 is well positioned to be affirmed by a comfortable majority this November, garnering support from three-fifths of the Maryland electorate:

Vote on Dream Act Referendum


Vote for Vote against Undecided

57%

60%

26% 17%

26% 14%

March 2012

September 2012

G ARIN H ART Y ANG RESEARCH GROUP


Several notable insights about the polling data: 1. Support for Question 4 has been remarkably consistent, and the current vote (which uses the official ballot language) that shows 60% of respondents supporting the measure scores slightly higher than the March results when we tested a summary of the legislation. 2. Not only is it encouraging that Question 4 has three-fifths support, but we note that the STRONG support at 43% still outpaces the TOTAL Against vote at 26%, which attests to the depth of the measures backing. 3. Question 4 enjoys strong support throughout the Maryland electorate, garnering close to three-fifths of the vote among white voters and threefourths among African Americans. In fact, support for Question 4 is so broad that even one-third of Romney voters are in favor. In summary, with less than two months remaining until election day, Question 4 has built on its early support and clearly has the momentum to win passage by a comfortable margin.

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