DCCC/Grove Insight NY-24 Polling Memo

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TO: FROM:

Interested Parties Lisa Grove, Ben Patinkin and Jessica Paulson Grove Insight, Ltd. Recent polling in NY-24 shows Dan Maffei widening the gap between himself and Ann Marie Buerkle September 25, 2012

RE:

DATE:

This analysis is based on 400 interviews among likely 2012 general election voters in New Yorks 24h Congressional District. The survey was conducted September 23-24, 2012. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. Dan Maffei continues to outpace Ann Marie Buerkle. Maffei currently holds an eight-point lead over his opponent. Maffei receives 46% of the vote compared to 38% for Buerkle and there are few If the election for U.S. Congress were being undecideds in play. These findings closely held today for whom would you vote? mirror the generic Congressional test, where the Maffei 46% Democrat leads the Republican by six-points Buerkle 38% (46% Democrat; 40% Republican) and Undecided 9% OTHER 7% represent a four-point drop in support for Buerkle from our late August survey. Maffei margin in August +6
Maffei margin in September +8

Nearly six in 10 give Buerkle negative ratings for her time in Congress. About one-third have positive perceptions of her work in office (32%), while a majority (59%) offer up negative reviewsan increase on the negative side of four points since our August survey. In sum, New Yorks 24th Congressional District continues to be a potential pick-up opportunity for Democrats.

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