Heinrich September 27 Polling Memo

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To:

Interested Parties

From: GBA Strategies Date: September 27, 2012

Heinrich Holding Steady Lead in NM Senate Contest


Democrat Martin Heinrich holds a large and consistent lead over Republican Heather Wilson in the U.S. Senate race in New Mexico. Our latest poll shows Heinrich leading Wilson by 8 points, 52 44 percent. For the last several weeks, Heinrich has been the subject of attack ads from outside corporate special interest groups, while all pro-Heinrich groups have shifted their resources to more competitive states. Yet, the anti-Heinrich attack ads have failed to help Congresswoman Wilson make any gains. Our August poll showed Heinrich leading 51-44 percent and this poll shows him leading 52 44 percent. Date Heinrich-Wilson Sample size/methodology Pollster/Sponsor

September 24-26 September 7-9

52-44 (+8) 50-41 (+9)

GBA 600 LVs/live dialers Strategies/Martin on landline and cell Heinrich for Senate 1122 LVs/IVR 667 LVs/live dialers on landline and cell 500 LVs/IVR 700 LVs/live dialers on landline and cell PPP Albuquerque Journal Rasmussen GBA Strategies/Martin Heinrich for Senate FM3/LCV

September 3-6 August 21

49-42 (+7) 48-41 (+7)

51-44 (+8)* August 14-19 August 5-7 50-41 (+9)

502 LVs/live dialers on landline and cell *Due to rounding, the Heinrich lead was +8

Heinrichs 8-point lead is well outside the 4-percentage point margin of error in the survey that was conducted September 24th-26th. After months and months of advertising, there is no reason to believe that Congresswoman Wilson can revive her campaign.

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