MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: RE: DATE: THE HEATHER WILSON CAMPAIGN TEAM GLEN BOLGER KEY FINDINGS BRUSHFIRE

E SURVEY SEPTEMBER 28, 2012

Key Findings 1. This U.S. Senate race is now a dead heat. Heather Wilson trails Martin Heinrich by just one point 42% Wilson/43% Heinrich. Independent American candidate Jon Barrie is polling 9% of the vote, leaving 6% undecided. This represents a remarkable turnaround from August, when Heather trailed 42%-52%. By early September, Heather had climbed back to a 40%-46% deficit. Key findings on the ballot include:

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Barrie is getting double digits among Independents and Democrats. Barrie is clearly taking votes away from Heinrich. Wilson leads 45%-41%, with 8% for Barrie, among high interest voters.

Wilsons gains have come despite a slippage by Mitt Romney in the Presidential race in the state. In mid-September, Romney trailed Barack Obama 43%-47%, with 4% for Gary Johnson. However, Johnson has made modest gains at Romneys expense, and the ballot is now 40% Romney/47% Obama/9% Johnson. So, while Romneys numbers in New Mexico have bounced down a little, Wilsons have improved.

The Bottom Line The Senate race is tightening up. After being declared defeated by the pundits in August, the Wilson campaign has hit its stride. This could go down to the wire. Methodology Public Opinion Strategies completed a telephone sample of 500 likely voters in New Mexico on September 25-27, 2012, including 100 interviews with cell phone respondents. The survey was conducted for the Heather Wilson for Senate campaign and has a margin of error of +4.38 in 95 out of 100 cases.
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