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  • Doheny Poll Release Memo Oct 2012

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    Brian J. Amaral
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    A recent poll of 400 likely voters in New York's 21st Congressional District shows Republican candidate Matt Doheny and incumbent Democrat Bill Owens in a statistical deadheat, with Doheny trailing Owens by only 5 points which is within the poll's margin of error. While 28% of voters say they will definitely vote for Owens and 28% for Doheny, when including those who say they will probably vote for one of the candidates the race tightens to just a 1 point difference. The poll also found that only 35% think Owens should be reelected while voters in the district want a Republican who can serve as a check on President Obama's policies.

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    A recent poll of 400 likely voters in New York's 21st Congressional District shows Republican candidate Matt Doheny and incumbent Democrat Bill Owens in a statistical deadheat, with Doheny trailing Owens by only 5 points which is within the poll's margin of error. While 28% of voters say they will definitely vote for Owens and 28% for Doheny, when including those who say they will probably vote for one of the candidates the race tightens to just a 1 point difference. The poll also found that only 35% think Owens should be reelected while voters in the district want a Republican who can serve as a check on President Obama's policies.

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    103 views1 page

    Doheny Poll Release Memo Oct 2012

    Uploaded by

    Brian J. Amaral
    A recent poll of 400 likely voters in New York's 21st Congressional District shows Republican candidate Matt Doheny and incumbent Democrat Bill Owens in a statistical deadheat, with Doheny trailing Owens by only 5 points which is within the poll's margin of error. While 28% of voters say they will definitely vote for Owens and 28% for Doheny, when including those who say they will probably vote for one of the candidates the race tightens to just a 1 point difference. The poll also found that only 35% think Owens should be reelected while voters in the district want a Republican who can serve as a check on President Obama's policies.

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    MEMORANDUM

    TO: FROM: SUBJECT:

    INTERESTED PARTIES ROBERT BLIZZARD PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES RECENT NY CD-21 POLLING DATA

    DATE: OCTOBER 3, 2012 ____________________________________________________________________________________ As you know, Public Opinion Strategies recently conducted a survey of 400 likely voters in New York Congressional District 21 on behalf of the Matt Doheny for Congress campaign and the NRCC. The poll was conducted October 1-2, 2012 and has a margin of error of +/- 5% in 95 out of 100 cases. KEY DATA Matt Doheny and Bill Owens are in a statistical dead heat. Republican Matt Doheny trails Congressman Bill Owens by just five points (40%-45%), within the polls margin of error. Further, in terms of committed support, the percentage of voters who say they will definitely vote for either candidate is the same. DOHENY 28% 12% 40% OWENS 28% 17% 45%

    Definitely Probably TOTAL

    And, among those voters most interested in the November election, its just a one-point race (Doheny 43% - Owens 44%). Bill Owens is clearly a vulnerable incumbent. When voters are asked whether Bill Owens should be re-elected or if it is time for a new person, just 35% of likely voters say he should be re-elected. Voters in this district want a Republican as a check-and-balance on Obamas policies. Fully 47% believe it is more important to elect a Republican who will be a check and balance to President Obamas policies and programs, while just 39% say it is more important to elect a Democrat who will support President Obamas policies and programs. BOTTOM LINE Not only has Matt Dohenys standing on the ballot improved dramatically from the early September Siena Poll (Doheny 36% - Owens 49%), but Owens remains very vulnerable in a district that wants a checkand-balance on the Presidents programs and policies. Its clear the momentum is on Matt Dohenys side in this race.
    PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Page 1

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