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KHNG HONG N ARGENTINA V BI HC KINH NGHIM

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Khng hong n Argentina

Argentina giai on trc khng hong Din bin cuc khng hong Nguyn nhn cuc khng hong Gii php khc phc khng hong ca Argentina

Bi hc kinh nghim cho Vit Nam

I. Argentina giai on trc khng hong n

Khng hong Khng hong n l n tht bi ca mt s l g? hay mt s nhn t ca nn kinh t trong vic p ng y ngha v, bn phn ti chnh ca mnh

I. Argentina giai on trc khng hong n Du hiu ca khng hong ti chnh:

Cc NHTM khng hon tr c cc khon tin gi ca ngi gi tin. Cc khch hng vay vn, gm c khch hng c xp loi A cng khng th hon tr y cc khon vay cho ngn hng. Chnh ph t b ch t gi hi oi c nh

I. Argentina giai on trc khng hong n

Nm 1989, kinh t khng hong, lm pht trm trng 200%GDP
1

p dng h thng chun tin t T do ha hon ton h thng ngn hng T nhn ha cc cng ty nh nc Loi b gn nh tt c cc hng ro thu quan

I. Argentina giai on trc khng hong n

Kinh t trc khng hong
1991 n 1994 tc tng trng kinh t hng nm ca Argentina t 7,7%

1994
xy ra khng hong kinh t do Mexico ph gi ng Peso

1995
t l tng trng GDP xung 4%

1997
GDP phc hi nhanh chng, t 8%

Tng trng GDP 91-98 (%/nm)

II. Din bin cuc khng hong

Cuc khng hong xy ra

Din bin cuc khng hong

Content Title

Content Title

Hiu ng ca cuc khng hong

II. Din bin cuc khng hong

Khng hong xy ra
Tng trng kinh t suy gim lm cc nh u t nc ngoi lo ngi v kh nng tr n ca chnh ph Argentina

II. Din bin cuc khng hong

Khng hong xy ra Khon n chnh ph 155 t USD khng c kh nng chi tr.

II. Din bin cuc khng hong

Chnh ph tm ngun ti tr t IMF 11/2001,ngi dn bt u rt tin t. Chnh ph ng bng tt c ti khon ngn hng Cc cuc biu tnh xy ra c bit l trong giai on 2001-2002 C ch hi ng tin t c xa b; ng peso b ph gi t 1 peso/USD ln 2.5 peso/USD

II. Din bin cuc khng hong

Nhng thng u nm 2002 Thng 5/2002:Tng thng Eduardo Duhalde cn nhc bn ti sn nh nc tr n cho dn. 2/6/2002 : Tng thng EduardoDuhalde k sc lnh ra k hoch chm dt phong to ti khon ngn hng. ch s gi tiu dng ca Argentina tng 20% trong 6 thng u nm 6 thng cui nm 2002 8 thng k t khi Argentia b ch gn ng ni t vi USD theo t l 1 n 1, peso mt ti 70% gi tr.

Argentina trong nm 2002-2003

6 thng cui nm 2002. Thng chn 2002 (IMF) li cho bit, s khng cho Argentina vay thm bt k khon no trc thi im Tng thng mi ca nc ny nhm chc vo thng 5/2003 T l tht nghip ln ti 22%

II. Din bin cuc khng hong Hiu ng ca cuc khng hong
Nhiu cng ty t nhn v cc ngn hng ng trn b vc ph sn
Tht nghip t k lc k t gia nm 1989 Cc tng thng v cc b trng kinh t ti chnh thay nhau ln xung chc Cht lng cuc sng trung bnh Argentina h thp T l lm pht ln cao

III. Nguyn nhn khng hong n Argentina

H thng Chun tin t

Chnh tr bt n

Sai lm trong qun l KT v m

III. Nguyn nhn khng hong n Argentina

Hnh thnh

Nm 1991, gn ng peso ca Argentina vi ng USD theo t l mt - mt Ch cho php ngn hng trung ng pht hnh thm mt lng tin tng ng vi lng ngoi t va mi b sung

H thng Chun tin t

Khi nim
Khc T gi c nh

T gi c nh vn c kh nng b ph gi Chun tin t c tin cy cao hn

III. Nguyn nhn khng hong n Argentina

NHC IM CA H THNG CHUN TIN T 1. Chnh ph khng th t ch trong chnh sch tin t 2. Khuyn khch cc nh u t trong nc kinh doanh quc t vay n bng ngoi t 3. Ngn hng TW khng th thc hin chc nng l ngi cho vay cui cng 4. Khng th in thm tin v d tr ngoi t ngy cng t i 5. Gi hng ho xut khu ngy cng cao ln 6. la ho nn kinh t to ra mt h thng tin t kp

III. Nguyn nhn khng hong n Argentina

Cc c sc t bn ngoi
Text in here

Mexico ph gi ng peso vo cui nm 1994

Text la ng in here ln gi

Brazil, ph gi ng real vo nm 1999

III. Nguyn nhn khng hong n Argentina

H thng Chun tin t

Kinh t v chnh tr

III. Nguyn nhn khng hong n Argentina

Cc chnh sch qun l kinh t v m sai lm

T do ha hon ton h thng ngn hng
T do cho lun chuyn t bn T nhn ha hu ht cc cng ty nh nc

Loi b gn nh hng ro thu quan

Vay n "thng tay" Tun theo cc chnh sch k quc ca IMF

III. Nguyn nhn khng hong n Argentina Cc chnh sch qun l kinh t v m sai lm
T do ha hon ton h thng ngn hng => H thng ngn hng b chi phi bi cc ngn hng NN=>thiu vn

T do lun chuyn ngun vn => ngoi t b bay hi sau ny

III. Nguyn nhn khng hong n Argentina

Cc chnh sch qun l kinh t v m sai lm

T nhn ha hu ht cc cng ty nh nc

Ngun thu ngn sch gim v ch cn trng ch vo thu

Cc DN cung cp in, nc ng lot tng gi

Nhiu ngi mt vic, tiu dng gim st

Nhiu DN ph sn dn n tht thu thu

III. Nguyn nhn khng hong n Argentina

Cc chnh sch qun l kinh t v m sai lm Loi b gn nh hon ton hng ro thu quan. Ct gim thu t trung bnh 45% u thp nin 90 xung cn 11% nm Vay n thng tay, t 2000 l n t 35% GDP trong nm 1995 cho n gn GDP 65% nm 2001

III. Nguyn nhn khng hong n Argentina

Cc chnh sch qun l kinh t v m sai lm

Tun theo cc chnh sch k quc ca IMF Gim bi chi ngn sch Tng thu => Kinh t cng ln su vo khng hong

Nguyn nhn khng hong n Argentina

Chnh tr bt n
T nn tham nhng, s phn chia quyn lc gia cc a phng trong vic iu tit cc ngun thu thu

Nhng bt n trong b my chnh ph

=> Ngi dn mt nim tin, biu tnh bo lon gia tng

III. Nguyn nhn khng hong n Argentina

T do ha qu mc Vay n nc ngoi nhiu T gi qu cng nhc

Kinh t gim st Gim chi NS, tng thu Khng hong kinh t

Thm ht NSNN Vay n

Chnh tr bt n

Khng hong nim tin

Sp h thng NH

IV. Argentina sau khng hong

Cc bin php gip Argentina thot khi khng hong

Chm dt s hot ng ca h thng chun tin t v ln k hoch ph gi ng tin 29% Chuyn i tt c cc khon n c tr gi trn 100,000 USD thnh ng peso Kim sot ti khon ngn hng v dng chy t bn p dng chnh sch thu mi ln du th bi thng cho ch n b mt mt do khng c Argentina tr n Cn bng thu chi ngn sch v ti m phn n cng.

IV. Argentina sau khng hong S phc hi ca kinh t argentina

Argentina lc ny c mt nn xut khu cc k pht trin v lm tng d tr ngoi t cho t nc Tuy nhin, i cng vi l t l lm pht cng tng cao ( nguyn nhn l do chnh ph phi tung ng Peso ra mua vo mt lng ln ngoi t ang c trn th trng nhm n nh mc gi 1 la i xp x 3 Peso) Trong nhng nm ny, t l tht nghip cng gim xung mc thp nht, di 7.875 nm 2008.

IV. Argentina sau khng hong Cc chnh sch gip phc hi nn kinh t
Chnh sch thng mi: Tng cng xut khu, hn ch nhp khu v pht trin cc ngnh sn xut trong nc Chnh sch u t: Tng cng thu ht u t nc ngoi vo mi lnh vc kinh t ca t nc, c bit l vo lnh vc nng lng v cc lnh vc sn xut Chnh sch ti chnh: - Qun l thu xut khu - Chnh sch hi oi nhm trnh ng peso tng gi thng qua s can thip ca Ngn hng Trung ng,

IV. Argentina sau khng hong

GDP ca Argentina tng u lin tc qua cc nm t 2003 n 2007( tr 2008 v 2009 do chu s nh hng ca cuc khng hong ti chnh ton cu)

V. Bi hc kinh nghim
Bi hc v chnh sch kinh t

Bi hc v chnh tr

Bi hc v qun l ngn sch nh nc

V. Bi hc kinh nghim
Bi hc v chnh sch kinh t Bi hc t t do ha h thng ngn hng - Ngn hng l mt lnh vc m cc tp on nc ngoi thng chn p cc ngn hng ni a. - IMF v Ngn hng Th gii lun lun nhn mnh n tm quan trng ca s n nh h thng ngn hng. Nhng iu quan trng l h thng khe mnh phi cung cp tt tn dng cho tng trng

V. Bi hc kinh nghim
Bi hc v chnh sch kinh t
Bi hc t t hu ha hng lot DN Ngn chn th c quyn v thao tng th trng ca cc DN T nhn ha phi l mt phn ca mt chng trnh ton din m i hi phi to thm vic lm mi ng thi mc d ct gim vic lm khng trnh khi khi t nhn ha Xy dng cu trc lut php v th ch th trng ph hp trc khi bt u t nhn ha Qu trnh t nhn ha phi thc hin theo k hoch, trnh tnh trng t mt kim sot Gim thiu tham nhng trong b my chnh quyn

V. Bi hc kinh nghim
Bi hc v chnh sch kinh t

Bi hc t t do ha thng mi Xy dng h thng php lut v thu r rng y . a ra mc thu hp l trnh trn thu. Hn ch ti a cc tnh trng lch lut, trn thu gy tht thu ngn sch nh nc Chnh ph cn phi a ra nhng tnh ton hp l trong vic cn i cc ngun thu t thu v chi tiu chnh ph.

V. Bi hc kinh nghim
Bi hc v chnh sch kinh t Bi hc t ch t gi - Vic gn ng tin vi ng tin nc ngoi c xu hng lm pht thp l bt hp l v n lm xi mn sc cnh tranh thng mi quc t. Gii php: Cc nc c th gn ng tin ca mnh vi 1 r cc ng tin mnh - Tng cng cc bin php kim sot v qun l ngoi hi cht ch - p dng ch a t gi, ngha l p dng nhng ch t gi khc nhau cho nhng giao dch khc nhau

V. Bi hc kinh nghim
Bi hc v qun l ngn sch nh nc

L do thm ht NSNN
S kim sot chi tiu v qun l n ca Nh nc km Gia tng mng cc chi tiu trong NSNN, c bit, hu qu to ln ca cuc khng hong ti chnh-kinh t ton cu 2009 buc nhiu nc phi chi rt nhiu khc phc. Cc ngun thu (ch yu t thu) tng khng kp vi cu, phi ct gim do qu trnh hi nhp, tht thu do tnh trng trn thu, tham nhng

V. Bi hc kinh nghim
Bi hc v qun l ngn sch nh nc

Gii php khc phc

Bo m rng s liu n c kim chng, thng nht v cp nht mt cch nht qun vn trong nc l quyt nh, vn ngoi nc l quan trng v ngun vn ODA l vn vay Qun l v s dng c hiu qu cc ngun vn nc ngoi nh la chn d n kh thi, d n u tin u t

Nng cao nng lc v hiu lc qun l nh nc, tng cng kim tra gim st v nh gi hiu qu s dng vn vay, kim ton cc bo co ti chnh.

Xy dng hn mc vay nc ngoi

V. Bi hc kinh nghim
Bi hc t nhng bt n trong chnh tr

Theo Ngn hng Th gii (WB), trong vng mt nm qua, hn 5% GDP ton cu, tc khong 2.600 t USD, b thit hn bi vn nn tham nhng. Tham nhng tr thnh ro cn i vi hot ng u t nc ngoi, dn ti nhng hu qu kh lng. => y li tham nhng v n nh b my chnh tr l cc k cn thit nu mt quc gia mun pht trin n nh

V. Bi hc kinh nghim
1. T do thng mi
Text
Text

4. Vay n nc ngoi

Text

2. C phn ha cc DN

Text

5. T nn tham nhng

3. la ha
Text

P DNG VO TNH HNH THC T TI VIT NAM

V. Bi hc kinh nghim
1. T do thng mi Vit nam gia nhp t chc WTO ngy 7/11/2006 v phi thc hin mt s bin php ct gim thu nh cam kt trong n xin gia nhp. Theo c tnh s b th s lm gim khong 10% thu nhp t hot ng xut nhp khu. H thng qun l thu thu Vit Nam c nh gi l km hiu qu

V. Bi hc kinh nghim
2. C phn ha DN Mi nm c rt nhiu doanh nghip nh nc tin hnh c phn ha=> ngun thu ca nh nc st gim => VN cn c nhng k hoch v mc tiu c th trnh vic c phn ha t, mt kim sot. 3. la ha nn kinh t Trn th trng VN, ngoi t v vng c s dng kh ph bin nh cc phng tin thanh ton trong giao =>cn c nhng bin php v chnh sch nhm n nh t gi 1 cch c hiu qu

V. Bi hc kinh nghim
4. Vn vay n nc ngoi Vit nam cn duy tr t l vay n nc ngoi mc an ton v ti u hiu qu s dng cc mn vay Theo WB, ngng an ton i vi cc nc ang pht trin l t l n nc ngoi phi di 40%GDP
T l n nc ngoi trong cc nm qua ca VN th hin bng sau:

Ch tiu Tng d n nc ngoi so vi GDP (%) N nc ngoi khu vc n cng so vi GDP (%)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

32.2 27.8

31.4 26.7

32.5 28.2

29.8 25.1

39.0 29.3

V. Bi hc kinh nghim
5. T nn tham nhng Theo ch s tham nhng quc t m T chc Minh bch quc t cng b th Vit Nam l mt trong nhng thnh vin ca nhm nc c mc tham nhng nng n nht

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