2012 ND-Senate Analysis

Facts:
42,011 more votes were cast for Dalrymple than Berg. 29,828 more votes were cast for Romney than Berg. 15,147 more votes were cast for Cramer than Berg. 14,681 more votes were cast for Romney than Cramer 4,853 fewer total votes were cast in the House than the Senate. 10,215 votes were cast for the Libertarian House candidate. 6,906 more votes were cast for Gulleson than Obama. 36,262 more votes were cast for Heitkamp than Obama. 15,868 fewer votes were cast for Taylor than Obama.

1 in 5 Dalrymple voters did not for Berg. 1 in 6 Romney voters did not vote for Berg. 1 in 12 Romney voters did not vote for Cramer. 1 in 12 Cramer voters did not vote for Berg. 1 in 30 voters did not vote for Cramer or Gulleson.

Conclusions: North Dakotas historical tradition of ticket-splitting is alive and well; and it could be argued that within the context of the current national partisan divide, is as strong as ever. The NDGOP failed to convince 15-20% of Romney/Dalrymple voters to support Berg, and the Berg campaign failed to convince 8% of Cramer voters to support Berg.

Theories: The National Republican Senatorial Committee hurt Berg by increasing Heitkamps likability with the ads declaring that Heidi is a nice person, but and having actors say I like Heidi, but If there had been a 3rd listed option in the Senate race, Bergs loss would be greater than it was given the number of votes for Olson in the House race plus the number of votes that were cast in the Senate race but not cast at all in the House race.

Compiled by Dustin Gawrylow