ალბათობა და მათემატიკური სტატისტიკა

omar furTuxia,
zurab cigroSvili,
qeTevan manjgalaZe
albaToba da maTematikuri
statistika
(leqciebis kursi qimiis, biologiis da sicocxlis
Semswavleli mecnierebebis mimarTulebebis
studentebisaTvis)
T s u
2
leqciebis kursSi gadmocemulia Tanamedrove albaTobis Teoriisa
da maTematikuri statistikis ZiriTadi cnebebi da faqtebi, romlebic
aucilebelia rTuli qimiuri da biologiuri procesebis Sesaswavlad
da maTTvis met-naklebad adekvaturi modelebis asagebad. masSi warmod-
genilia maTematikuri statistikis iseTi nawilebi, rogoricaa Sefaseb-
isa da hipoTezaTa Semowmebis Teoria erTi da or amokrefiani amocane-
bisaTvis, dispersiuli da regresiul-korelaciuri analizi, kategori-
uli tipis monacemebis analizi da statistikis araparametruli meTo-
debi.
leqciebis kursi gankuTvnilia iv. javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilis-
is saxelmwifo universitetis, qimiis, biologiisa da sicocxlis Sems-
wavlel mecnierebaTa mimarTulebebis studentebisaTvis; igi sasargeb-
lo iqneba sxva umaRlesi saswavleblebis (magaliTad, samedicino da
teqnikuri universitetis Sesabamisi mimarTulebebis) studentebisa da
statistikis gamoyenebiTi aspeqtebiT dainteresebuli sxvadasxva pro-
filis specialistTa farTo wrisaTvis.
3
winasityvaoba
winamdebare leqciebis kursi albaTobasa da maTematikur stati-
stikaSi (qimiis, biologiisa da sicocxlis Semswavlel mecnierebaTa
mimarTulebebis meoTxe kursis studentebisaTvis) warmoadgens am mima-
rTulebaTa studentebisaTvis gankuTvnili umaRlesi maTematikis sagnis
Semadgeneli sami kursidan (kalkulusi, diferencialuri modelebi,
albaToba da maTematikuri statistika) mesame nawils. is efuZneba
2007-2009 wlebSi aRniSnuli mimarTulebebis (da agreTve socialur
da politikur mecnierebaTa da ekonomikisa da biznesis mimarTulebeb-
is) studentebisTvis albaTobis Teoriasa da maTematikur statistika-
Si wakiTxul leqciebs. misi Sedgenisas, garda iv. javaxiSvilis saxel-
obis Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetSi am kuTxiT arsebuli gamoc-
dilebisa, gamoyenebulia Sesabamisi kursis harvardis samedicino saja-
ro skolaSi (aSS) wakiTxvis gamocdileba. leqciebis kurss Tan erTvis
qarTul da inglisur enebze silabusi saTanado ZiriTadi da damxmare
literaturiT da leqciebis mixedviT paragrafebis miTiTebiT. leqcieb-
is kursi sasargeblo iqneba rogorc iv. javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbi-
lisis saxelmwifo universitetis, aseve qimiis, biologiis da sicocx-
lis Semswavlel mecnierebaTa mimarTulebebis sxva umaRlesi saswavle-
blebis studentebisa da magistrantebisaTvis.
o. furTuxia
Tbilisi, marti,
2009
4
Sesavali
albaTobis Teoria warmoadgens maTematikis dargs, romelic Sei-
swavlis iseTi eqsperimentebis (movlenebis) maTematikur modelebs,
romelTa Sedegebi calsaxad ar ganisazRvreba cdis pirobebiT. aseT eq-
sperimentebs ewodebaT SemTxveviTi eqsperimentebi. SemTxveviTi eqsperi-
mentebia: monetis agdebis Sedegi, mizanSi srolisas miznis dazianeba an
ardazianeba, xelsawyos muSaobis xangrZlivoba, satelefono sadgurSi
gamoZaxebaTa ricxvi, avto-sagzao SemTxvevaTa raodenoba, arabejiTi
studentis mier gamocdis Cabarebis Sedegi, valutis kursi rom ar Ca-
mova garkveul niSnulamde da sxva.
saWiroa aRiniSnos, rom albaTobis Teoria ikvlevs ara nebismi-
er SemTxveviT eqsperiments, aramed mxolod iseT eqsperimentebs, rom-
lebic xasiaTdebian statistikuri mdgradobis anu sixSireTa mdgrado-
bis TvisebiT: sixSireebi
i n
n A
i
/ ) ( (sadac
i
n i -ur seriaSi eqsperimen-
tebis ricxvia, xolo ) ( A
i
n
_ ki A xdomilebis moxdenaTa raodeno-
ba am seriaSi) axlos arian erTmaneTTan (mcired gansxvavdebian erTman-
eTisagan an raime saSualo sidididan) yovelTvis rogorc ki
i
n ricx-
vebi iqnebian sakmaod didebi. magaliTad, v. feleris wignSi moyvanilia
monetis agdebis 10 seriaSi ( 10 ,... 1 = i ), sadac TiTeul seriaSi
1000 =
i
n eqsperimentia, gerbis mosvlaTa ) " ("g
i
n
ricxvis Semdegi mo-
nacemebi: 501, 485, 509, 536, 485, 488, 500, 497, 494, 484. cxadia,
rom aq fardobiTi sixSireebi axlosaa erTmaneTTan, da maSasadame, eqs-
periments, romelic mdgomareobs simetriuli monetis agdebaSi, gaaCnia
sixSiris mdgradobis Tviseba.
g. krameris mier moyvanili monacemebi 1935 wels SveciaSi daba-
debuli axalSobilebis Sesaxeb (sadac n _ axalSobilTa raodenobaa,
xolo / m n _ vaJebis dabadebis fardobiTi sixSire) ase gamoiyureba:
Tveebi I II III IV V VI
n 7280 6957 7883 7884 7892 7609
m/n 0.515 0.510 0.510 0.529 0.522 0.518
Tveebi VII VIII IX X XI XII sul
n 7585 7393 7203 6903 6552 7132 88273
m/n 0.523 0.514 0.515 0.509 0.518 0.527 0.517
miuxedavad imisa, rom axalSobilTa saerTo raodenoba icvleba
wlis ganmavlobaSi, vaJebis dabadebis fardobiTi sixSire sakmaod
mdgradad meryeobs 0.517 saSualo mniSvnelobis irgvliv.
analogiuri statistikuri kanonzomierebebi aRmoCenil iqna me-18
saukuneSi demografiul monacemebSi axalSobilTa statistikis Sesw-
5
avlisas, sikvdilianobis statistikis Seswavlisas, ubdur SemTxvevaTa
statistikis Seswavlisas da a. S. (rac, Tavis mxriv, sakmaod efeqtur-
ad gamoiyebneboda sadazRvevo kompaniebis saqmianobaSi). mogvianebiT, me-
19 saukunis bolos da me-20 saukunis dasawyisSi axali statistikuri
kanonzomierebebi aRmoCenil iqna fizikaSi, qimiaSi, biologiaSi, sicoc-
xlis Semswavlel mecnierebebSi, ekonomikaSi da sxva mecnierebebSi. am
kanonzomierebebs mivyavarT albaTobis statistikuri gansazRvrisaken:
ricxvs, romlis irgvlivac irxeva A xdomilebis fardobiTi sixSire,
ewodeba A xdomilobis albaToba da aRiniSneba ) ( A P simboloTi. maT-
ematikuri dasabuTeba imisa, rom fardobiTi sixSire axlosaa albaTob-
asTan moyvanilia iakob bernulis cnobil TeoremaSi, romelic albaTo-
bis TeoriaSi cnobilia agreTve did ricxvTa kanonis saxelwodebiT.
aRsaniSnavia, rom yvela SesaZlo eqsperimenti SeiZleba gaiyos
sam kategoriad: I. eqsperimentebi sruli mdgradobiT, sadac saerTod
araa ganuzRvreloba; II. eqsperimentebi sadac ara gvaqvs sruli mdgra-
doba, magram aris statistikuri mdgradoba; III. eqsperimentebi sadac
statistikuri mdgradobac ki ara gvaqvs.
pirvel jgufs miekuTvneba umravlesoba eqsperimentebis, romleb-
ic aRiwerebian sabunebismetyvelo mecnierebebis (fizika, qimia, biolo-
gia) klasikuri kanonebiT da maTi Seswavla xdeba albaTobis Teoriis
gamoyenebis gareSe. mesame kategoriisaTvis albaTobis Teoria gamousad-
egaria. meore jgufi warmoadgens swored albaTobis Teoriis gamoyene-
bis ares. TviTon albaTobis Teoriis mier gadasawyveti amocanebi iyo-
fa or did jgufad. pirveli jgufis amocanebs SeiZleba vuwodoT amo-
canebi rTuli xdomilebebis albaTobebis gamoTvlaze, roca cnobilia
martivi xdomilebebis albaTobebi.
amocanebis meore jgufi garkveuli azriT pirveli jgufis amo-
canebis Sebrunebulia. aq eqsperimentebis seriis Sedegebis safuZvelze
raime gziT unda SevafasoT martivi xdomilebebis albaTobebi. vinaidan,
martivi xdomilebebis albaTobebi ucnobia im amocanebSi, romlebic
praqtikaSi warmoiSoba, amitom amocanebis es jgufi gansakuTrebiT sai-
nteresoa gamoyenebebis TvalsazrisiT. albaTobis Teoriis im nawils,
romelic axdens meore gjufis amocanebis zust dasmas da ikvlevs
maTi amoxsnis meTodebs, maTematikuri statistika ewodeba.
maTematikuri statistika es aris maTematikis dargi, romelic
Seiswavlis statistikuri monacemebis sistematizaciis, analizisa da
gamoyenebis meTodebs Teoriuli da praqtikuli daskvnebis miRebis miz-
niT. igi Sedgeba ori nawilisagan: aRweriTi (deskrifciuli) statist-
ika da statistikuri daskvnebis Teoria. misi meTodebi albaTobis Teo-
riazea dafuZnebuli. albaTobis Teoria warmoadgens xids aRweriT
statistikasa da statistikuri daskvnebis Teorias Soris, igi saSua-
lebas iZleva gaviazroT, Tu rogor iqmneba da gamoiyeneba statistiku-
6
ri procedurebi, rogor SeiZleba aviciloT Tavidan am meTodebis ara-
swori gamoyeneba.
albaTobis Teoriis rogorc mecnierebis ganviTareba miekuTvneba
me-17 saukunis meore naxevars da dakavSirebulia paskalis (1623-1662),
fermas (1601-1665) da hiugensis (1629-1695) saxelebTan, Tumca calke-
uli amocanebi, romlebic dakavSirebuli iyo azartul TamaSebSi Sanse-
bis daTvlasTan, XV-XVI saukuneebSic ganixileboda italieli maTema-
tikosebis mier (kardano, paColi, tartalia da sxva). am mecnierebis
WeSmariti istoria ki iwyeba i. bernulis (1654-1705), p. laplasisa
(1749-1827) da s. puasonis (1781-1840) Sromebidan. maTematikuri stat-
istika rogorc mecniereba iwyeba k. gausis (1777-1855) Sromebidan. ma-
Tematikuri statistikis ganviTarebaSi didi wvlili miuZRviT k. pirs-
ons (1857-1936), r. fiSers (1860-1962), e. neimans (1894-1977), a. kol-
mogorovs, n. smirnovs (1900-1966), a. valds (1902-1950) da sxvebs.
saqarTveloSi albaTobis Teoriisa da maTematikuri statistikis
swavlebis tradicias safuZveli daudo andria razmaZem (1889-1929),
romelic kiTxulobda leqciebis kurss axlad daarsebul Tbilisis
universitetSi, xolo maTematikis am dargis ganviTarebas safuZveli
Cauyara gvanji maniam (1918-1985), masve ekuTvnis pirveli qarTuli sa-
xelmZRvaneloebi da monografiebi am mimarTulebiT. aRsaniSnavia, rom
saqarTveloSi albaTobis Teoriisa da maTematikuri statistikis ganvi-
Tarebas ara marto wminda maTematikuri gamokvlevebiT, aramed gamoyen-
ebiTi xasiaTis kvlevebiTac Rrma kvali daaCnia revaz CitaSvilma
(1942-1995).
maTematikuri statistika farTod gamoiyeneba teqnikur gamokvl-
evebSi, sicocxlis Semswavlel mecnierebebSi, ekonomikaSi, sabanko sfe-
roSi, marTvis (menejmentis) Teoriasa da praqtikaSi, sociologiaSi,
medicinaSi, geologiaSi, istoriaSi da a. S. dakvirvebebis, gazomvebis,
eqsperimentebis Sedegebis damuSavebasa da analizTan saqme gvaqvs rog-
orc adamianis praqtikuli moRvaweobis yvela sferoSi, ise samecniero
kvlevebis yvela mimarTulebaSi. statistikis aRwerilobiTi mxaridan
naTeli xdeba, Tu adamianis moRvaweobis romel mxares exeba esa Tu is
amocana: ekonomikas, demografias, biologias, medicinas, sociologias
da a.S. Sesabamisad, SeiZleba visaubroT ekonometrikaze, demografiul
statistikaze, biometriaze, bio-samedicino statistikaze, statistika-
ze socialur mecnierebebSi da a.S., rogorc statistikis erTi Sexedv-
iT sxvadasxva sferoebze. sinamdvileSi, yoveli maTgani warmoadgens
monacemTa sxvadasxva bazas, romelTa damuSaveba da analizi xdeba maTe-
matikuri statistikis meTodebis gamoyenebiT.
7
silabusi
saswavlo
kursis
dasaxeleba
albaToba da maTematikuri statistika qimiis,
biologiisa da sicocxlis Semswavleli mecnierebe-
bisTvis
saswavlo
kursis kodi
saswavlo
kursis
statusi
kursi gaTvaliswinebulia qimiis, biologiisa da sic-
ocxlis Semswavleli mecnierebebis meoTxe kursis
studentebisTvis, rogorc savaldebulo
saswavlo
kursis
xangrZlivoba
erTi semestri
ECTS-
saswavlo
kursi
kreditebi
6 krediti: 60 sakontaqto saaTi (leqcia 30 saaTi,
praqtikuli 30 saaTi, laboratoriuli samuSao
(cxrilis gareT)) 90 saaTi damoukidebeli muSaobis-
aTvis
leqtorebi prof. omar furTuxia, Tsu zust da sabunebismetyve-
lo mecnierebaTa fakulteti, maTematikis mimarTule-
ba, telefoni: 304145 (samsaxuri), 189346 (bina),
899503082 (mobiluri), e-mail: omar.purtukhia@tsu.ge;
o.purtukhia@gmail.com
prof. zurab cigroSvili, saqarTvelos teqnikuri un-
iversiteti, qarTul-amerikuli universiteti, telef-
oni: 304145 (samsaxuri), 899317024 (mobiluri), e-
mail: zurats@rambler.ru
qeTevan manjgalaZe, fiz.-maT. mecnierebaTa kandidati,
mowveuli pedagogi, Tsu zust da sabunebismetyvelo
mecnierebaTa fakulteti, telefoni: 304145 (samsaxu-
ri), 968771 (bina), e-mail: kmanjgaladze@gmail.com
saswavlo
kursis
mizani
leqciebis kursi gankuTvnilia iv. javaxiSvilis saxe-
lobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetis qimiis,
biologiisa da sicocxlis Semswavlel mecnierebaTa
mimarTulebebis studentebisTvis. misi mizania gamoum-
uSaos studentebs realur monacemebTan muSaobis un-
ar-Cvevebi.
saswavlo
kursis
Seswavlis
wina
pirobebi
umaRlesi maTematika, nawili I kalkulusi
8
saswavlo
kursis
formati
leqcia, praqtikuli, praqtikuli samuSao
saswavlo
kursis
Sinaarsi
Sesavali. 1. statistikis sagani. populacia da SerCe-
va. aRweriTi da daskvniTi statistikis amocanebi. (ix.
[1], Tavi I.1; [4], Tavi 1)
2. monacemebis pirveladi damuSaveba. 2.1. monacemebis
tipebi. 2.2. monacemebis grafikuli warmodgena. (ix.
[1], Tavi I.2-I.3, I.6; [2], Tavi 2, $ 1-2; [4], Tavi 2)
2 sT leqcia, 2 sT praqtikuli
3. ricxviT monacemTa SerCeviTi maxasiaTeblebi. 3.1. sa-
Sualo yofaqcevis maxasiaTeblebi. 3.2. SerCevis gafant-
ulobis (ganfenilobis) maxasiaTeblebi. 3.3. SerCeviTi
ricxviTi maxasiaTeblebis Tvisebebi. 3.4. dawyvilebuli
monacemebi. korelacia. (ix. [1], Tavi I.7-I.9; [2], Tavi 3,
$ 1-3; [4], Tavi 3)
4. albaTobis Teoriis elementebi. 4.1. SemTxveviTi eq-
sperimenti, albaTuri sivrce, xdomiloba, SemTxveviTi
sidide. 4.2. moqmedebebi xdomilobebze. 4.3. xdomilo-
bis albaToba, albaTobaTa Tvisebebi. 4.4. pirobiTi
albaToba. albaTobaTa gamravlebis wesi. xdomilobaTa
damoukidebloba. 4.5. sruli albaTobisa da baiesis
formulebi. (ix. [1], Tavi II.1-II.2; [2], Tavi 4, $ 1-5;
[3] Tavi I.1-I.2; [4], Tavi 5)
5. diskretuli SemTxveviTi sidideebi. ZiriTadi alba-
Turi ganawilebebi. 5.1. SemTxveviTi sidideebi da maTi
ricxviTi maxasiaTeblebi. 5.2. diskretuli SemTxvevi-
Ti sididis ganawilebis funqcia. 5.3. gadanacvlebebi
da jufdebebi. 5.4. binomuri ganawileba. 5.5. puasonis
ganawileba. 5.6. kavSiri binomur da puasonis ganawil-
ebebs Soris. (ix. [1], Tavi II.3-II.4; [2], Tavi 5, $ 1-6;
[3] Tavi I.3-I.4; [4], Tavi 6)
6. uwyveti SemTxveviTi sidideebi. ZiriTadi albaTuri
ganawilebebi. 6.1. uwyveti SemTxveviTi sidideebi da
maTi ganawileba. 6.2. normaluri SemTxveviTi sididee-
bi (normaluri ganawileba). 6.3. binomuri da puasonis
ganawilebebis aproqsimacia normaluri ganawilebiT.
(ix. [1], Tavi II.5-II.6; [2], Tavi 6, $ 1-4; [3] Tavi I.5-
I.7; [4], Tavi 7)
9
7. SefasebaTa Teoria. wertilovani Sefasebebi. 7.1.
Sesavali. 7.2. wertilovani Sefasebebi. 7.3. central-
uri zRvariTi Teorema. 7.4. binomuri populaciis p
parametris wertilovani Sefaseba. 7.5. puasonis popu-
laciis parametris wertilovani Sefaseba. (ix. [1],
Tavi III.3-III.4; [2], Tavi 7, $ 1-5; [3] Tavi II.1)
8. SefasebaTa Teoria. intervaluri Sefasebebi. 8.1. Se-
savali. 8.2. populaciis saSualos intervaluri Sefa-
sebebi. 8.3. normaluri populaciis dispersiis inter-
valuri Sefaseba. 8.4. binomuri populaciis p paramet-
ris intervaluri Sefaseba. 8.5. puasonis ganawilebis
i parametris intervaluri Sefaseba. (ix. [1], Tavi
III.5; [2], Tavi 8, $ 1-4; [3] Tavi II.1-II.3; [4], Tavi 8)
9. hipoTezaTa Semowmeba. erTamokrefiani amocanebi.
9.1. Sesavali, ZiriTadi cnebebi. 9.2. hipoTezis Semow-
meba normaluri populaciis saSualosaTvis cnobili
dispersiis dros. 9.3. hipoTezis Semowmeba normalu-
ri populaciis saSualosaTvis ucnobi dispersiis
dros. 9.4. kriteriumis simZlavris gamoTvla. 9.5. Se-
rCevis minimaluri moculobis gansazRvra. 9.6. hipoT-
ezis Semowmeba normaluri populaciis dispersiisaTv-
is (ormxrivi alternativa). 9.7. hipoTezis Semowmeba
binomuri populaciis p parametris Sesaxeb (ormxrivi
alternativa). 9.8. hipoTezis Semowmeba puasonis pop-
ulaciis parametris Sesaxeb (mcire moculobis Se-
rCevebisaTvis). (ix. [1], Tavi III.6; [2], Tavi 9, $ 1-8;
[3] Tavi II.4-II.8; [4], Tavi 9)
10. hipoTezaTa Semowmeba. oramokrefiani amocanebi.
10.1. Sesavali. 10.2. dawyvilebuli monacemebi. 10.3.
oramokrefiani t -kriteriumi toli, ucnobi disper-
siebis SemTxvevaSi. 10.4. hipoTeza ori normaluri po-
pulaciis dispersiaTa tolobis Sesaxeb. 10.5. oramo-
krefiani t -kriteriumi aratoli dispersiebis Sem-
TxvevaSi. 10.6. SerCevaTa moculobebis gansazRvra.
ori populaciis saSualoebis Sedarebis kriteriumis
simZlavre. (ix. [1], Tavi III.7; [2], Tavi 10, $ 1-6; [3]
Tavi II.9-II.10; [4], Tavi 10)
10
11. mravalamokrefiani amocanebi. dispersiuli anali-
zi. 11.1. Sesavali. 11.2. hipoTezaTa Semowmeba erTfaqt-
orian ANOVA modelSi. deterministuli efeqtebis
SemTxveva. 11.3. jgufTa Sedareba erTfaqtorian ANO-
VA modelSi. wyvilTa Sedarebis t -kriteriumi. 11.4.
wrfivi kontrastebi. 11.5. mravlobiTi Sedareba (bonf-
eronisa da Sefes meTodebi). 11.6. hipoTezaTa Semowme-
ba erTfaqtorian ANOVA modelSi SemTxveviTi efeq-
tebis dros. (ix. [1], Tavi III.8; [2], Tavi 11, $ 1-6; [3]
Tavi II.19; [4], Tavi 12)
12. oramokrafiani amocanebi binomuri proporciebisa-
Tvis. kategoruli monacemebi. 12.1. Sesavali. 12.2 ori
binomuri proporciis Sedareba, normaluri aproqsim-
acia. 12.3 ori binomuri proporciis Sedareba, SeuRl-
ebis 22 cxrili. 12.4. SeuRlebis 22 cxrili. niSa-
nTa damoukidebloba. (ix. [1], Tavi III.9; [2], Tavi 12, $
1-2; [3] Tavi II.11; [4], Tavi 10)
12.5. kategoruli monacemebis efeqtebis sazomebi.
12.6. fiSeris zusti kriteriumi. 12.7. maknemaris kri-
teriumi proporciebisaTvis dawyvilebul monacemebSi.
(ix. [1], Tavi III.9; [2], Tavi 12, $ 3-5; [3] Tavi II.9-
II.11; [4], Tavi 10)
12.8. SerCevis moculobis gansazRvra da kriteriumis
simZlavre ori binomuri proporciebis Sedarebisas.
12.9. SeuRlebis r c cxrilebi. 12.10. Tanxmobis
_
2
kriteriumi. (ix. [1], Tavi III.10-III.11; [2], Tavi
12, $ 6-8; [3] Tavi II.14-II.16; [4], Tavi 12)
13. regresiuli analizi da korelacia. 13.1. Sesavali,
ZiriTadi cnebebi. 13.2. umcires kvadratTa meTodi.
13.3. regresiis wrfis parametrebis aRricxva. 13.4.
Tanxmobis kriteriumebi regresiis wrfisaTvis. 13.5.
intervaluri Sefasebebi wrfivi regresiisaTvis. 13.6.
naSTTa analizi martivi wrfivi regresiisaTvis. 13.7.
korelaciis koeficienti. 3.8. kerZo da mravlobiTi
korelacia. 13.9. mravlobiTi logisturi regresia.
(ix. [1], Tavi III.13; [2], Tavi 13, $ 1-11; [3] Tavi II.17-
II.18; [4], Tavi 11)
11
14. daskvniTi statistikis araparametruli meTodebi.
14.1. Sesavali. 14.2. niSnebis kriteriumi. 14.3. uilko-
ksonis niSniani rangebis kriteriumi. 14.4. uilkoks-
onis rangTa jamis kriteriumi. 14.5. Tanadoba uilko-
ksonis rangTa jamis kriteriumsa da _
2
-kriteriums
Soris. 14.6. kraskel-uolisis kriteriumi. 14.7. spir-
menis rangobrivi korelaciis koeficienti. (ix. [1],
Tavi III.12; [2], Tavi 14, $ 1-7; [3] Tavi II.18)
literatura
1. o.furTuxia. aRweriTi statistika, albaToba, sta-
tistikuri daskvnebis Teoria. Tbilisi, 2008.
2. B. Rosner. Fundamentals of Biostatistics. Published by
Duxbury, 1995.
3. o. furTuxia. albaToba da statistika magaliTebsa
da amocanebSi. Tbilisi, 2009.
4. Allan G. Bluman. Ementary Statistics: a brief version,
second edition. Published by McGraw-Hill, New York,
2003.
Sefaseba kolokviumi (weriTi formiT, sami sakiTxi, TiToeuli
swori pasuxi fasdeba 5 qulamde);
saboloo gamocda oTxsakiTxiani bileTebiT. TiTeul
sakiTxze pasuxi fasdeba 10 qulamde).
1. daswreba 10%
2. praqtikuli mecadineoba (15%),
laboratoriuli samuSao (5%)
20%
3. kolokviumi 15%
4. kolokviumi 15%
5. saboloo gamocda 40%
saboloo Sefaseba 100%
* gamocdaze daSvebis winapiroba: aranakleb 30
qulisa 1-4 komponentebSi
* kreditis miniWebis aucilebebi piroba: aranakleb
21 qulisa saboloo gamocdaSi
savaldebulo
literatura
1. o.furTuxia. aRweriTi statistika, albaToba, sta-
tistikuri daskvnebis Teoria. Tbilisi, 2008.
Duxbury, 1995.
3. o. furTuxia. albaToba da statistika magaliTebsa
da amocanebSi. Tbilisi, 2009.
4. Allan G. Bluman. Ementary Statistics: a brief version,
12
second edition. Published by McGraw-Hill, New York,
2003.
damatebiTi
literatura
da sxva
saswavlo
masala
1. g. mania. albaTobis Teoria da maTematikuri
statistika. Tsu, Tbilisi, 1976
2. n. lazrieva, m. mania, g. mari, a. mosiZe, a. toronj-
aZe, T. toronjaZe, T. ServaSiZe. albaTobis Teoria da
maTematikuri statistika ekonomistebisaTvis. fondi
evrazia, Tbilisi, 2000.
3. o. furTuxia. albaTobis Teoria da maTematikuri
statistika. Tbilisi, 2007.
4. P. Newbold, W. L. Carlson, B. M. Thorne. Statistics for
Business and Economics, sixth edition. Prentice Hall, Upper
Saddle River, New Jersey, 2007.
5. . .
. , 1967.
swavlis
Sedegi
miznidan gamomdinare, swavlis Sedegi unda iyos is,
rom studentebs SeeZloT statistikur meTodebze
dayrdnobiT damoukideblad daamuSaon maT mier mopov-
ebuli realuri monacemebi da gaakeTon swori daskvn-
ebi Sesaswavli movlenis Sesaxeb, rasac cxadia, gamo-
iyeneben TavianT pirdapir saqmianobaSi.
13
I. aRweriTi statistika
l e q c i a 1.
Tavi 1. statistikis sagani. populacia da SerCeva.
aRweriTi da daskvniTi statistikis amocanebi.
Cven xSirad gvesmis Semdegi tipis gancxadebebi da mtkicebuleb-
ebi: dou-jonsis saSualo daeca 6 punqtiT, samomxmareblo saqonel-
ze fasebis indeqsi gasuli Tvis ganmavlobaSi gaizarda 8%-iT, ukana-
skneli gamokiTxva gviCvenebs, rom prezidentis reitingi amJamad Seadg-
ens 63%-s, pacientTa 98%-s, romelic imyofeboda klinikur gamokv-
levaze, ar ganucdia raime gverdiTi efeqti mkerdis kibos axali prep-
aratisagan. Cven sworad unda gavaanalizoT da mivceT Sesabamisi int-
erpretacia yovel monacems. xSiria SemTxvevebi, roca imisaTvis rom
mimdinare movlenebs mieces gonivruli (inteleqtualuri) Sefaseba,
Cven gvesaWiroeba (gvixdeba) gadavamuSaoT monacemebis arsebiTad didi
raodenoba. mTavroba da mecnier-mkvlevarebi xarjaven milinobiT dol-
ars, raTa moagrovon monacemebi. federaluri mTavrobebi xels uwyoben
monacemebis Segrovebas, rogorc sakuTari ZalisxmeviT, ise korporaci-
ebis mimarT moTxovniT raTa maT misawvdomi gaxadon informaciebi.
gadawyvetilebebi xSirad dafuZnebulia arasrul informaciaze.
magaliTad, sagamocdo komisiis mier universitetSi miRebuli pirveli
kursis studentebi ise irCeven TavianT ZiriTad specialobas, rom ara
aqvT naTeli warmodgena momavali karieris Sesaxeb. an pacientebi, rom-
lebic daavadebuli arian kiboTi, Tanxmdebian monawileoba miiRon axa-
li preparatis klinikur gamokvlevaze ise, rom maTTvis ucnobia am
preparatis moqmedebis yvela SesaZlo Sedegi. analogiurad, is adamian-
ebi, romlebic regularulad Rebuloben saqmian gadawyvetilebebs gar-
emo pirobebis gaTvaliswinebiT, ar SeiZleba darwmunebulebi iyvnen im
faqtorebis momaval yofaqcevaze, romlebic saboloo gavlenas axdenen
gansaxilveli movlenebis saboloo Sedegze.
mewarmis mier SemoTavazebuli kontraqtis safasuri ar SeiZle-
ba iyos srulad garkveuli, is ver moicavs mosalodnel fasebs momav-
alSi da ver iqneba masSi gaTvaliswinebuli konkurentebis mier SemoT-
avazebuli fasebi. am dasanani gaurkvevlobis miuxedavad, mewarmem unda
daawesos Tavisi fasi. investorma garantirebulad ar icis finansuri
bazari iqneba aRmavali, gawonasworebuli Tu daRmavali. miuxedavad am-
isa, investorma unda gadawyvitos rogor daabalansos Tavis finansuri
portfeli aqciebiT, obligaciebiT da finansuri bazris sxva instrum-
14
entebiT, maSin roca finasuri bazris momavali ganviTareba misTvis uc-
nobia.
aRsaniSnavia, rom adamianebis umravlesobisTvis albaToba da
statistika axlobeli gaxda radios, televiziis, gazeTebisa da Jurn-
analebis saSualebiT. magaliTad, gazeTebSi napovni iyo Semdegi gancxa-
debebi: a). Cveulebriv, dReSi erTi abi vitamini da minerali asakovan
adamianebSi zrdis garkveul imunur reaqciebs 64 procentiT, im kvle-
vebis Tanaxmad, romelic Catarebuli iqna niu jersis medicinisa da
stomatologiis universitetSi (USA Weekend, January 6-8, 1995); b).
qveynis masStabiT gamokiTxuli 1 000 ojaxidan, 40% ganacxada, rom
floben sul cota erT ukabelo telefons, 9% flobs ors an mets
(Tribune-Rev-iew, Greensburg, PA, Jenuary 8, 1995, p.B3); g). 1994 wels
sacalo vaWrobis specialurma saTxilamuro sportis maRaziebma gayid-
es 760 000 Txilamuri saSualo fasad 153$ da 176 200 saTxilamu-
ro kostumi saSualo fasad 280$ (Tribune-Review, Greensburg, PA, Jenu-
ary 8, 1995, p. G1); d). dortmondSi (pensilvania) gayiduli uZravi qone-
bis saSualo fasi bo-lo 12 Tvis ganmavlobaSi iyo 64 304$ (Tribune-
Review, Greensburg, PA, Jenuary 8, 1995, p.B3); e). aSS-is moqalaqeebi
wlis ganmavlobaSi sportul tansacmelze saSualod xarjaven 193$
(USA Today, Jenuary 10, 1995).
statistika gamoiyeneba adamiani moRvaweobis TiTqmis yvela sfe-
roSi. magaliTad, sportSi statistikoss SeuZlia awarmoos aRricxva
iardebis ricxvisa rac gairbines fexburTelebma fexburTis matCis
ganmavlobaSi an daiTvalos raodenoba dartymebisa rac beisbolistma
gaakeTa sezonis ganmavlobaSi. sxva sferoebSi, rogoricaa jandacva,
administratori dainteresebulia im moqalaqeebis raodenobiT, romle-
bic avadmyofobdnen axali Stamis virusiT garkveuli periodis ganmav-
lobaSi. ganaTlebaSi, mkvlevars SeiZleba ainteresebdes swavlebis axa-
li meTodi ukeTesia Tu ara, vidre Zveli. aq CamoTvlilia mxolod
ramodenime magaliTi, Tu rogor SeiZleba iqnes gamoyenebuli statist-
ika sxvadasxva mimarTulebebiT. garda amisa, statistika gamoiyeneba ga-
mokvlevis Sedegebis gasaanalizeblad da rogorc instrumenti samecni-
ero kvlevebSi gadawyvetilebis misaRebad, romelic dafuZnebulia eqs-
perimentebze.
monacemebi SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes sxvadasxvanairad. codnis
is sistema, romelsac statsitikas uwodeben, imis mixedviT Tu rogor
gamoiyeneba monacemebi, zogjer iyofa or ZiriTad mimarTulebad. es
ori mimarTulebaa: 1. aRweriTi statistika da 2. statistikuri daskv-
nebi.
aRweriT statistikaSi statistikosi cdilobs aRweros situa-
cia. ganvixiloT mosaxleobis nacionaluri aRweris sakiTxi, romelsac
aSS mTavroba atarebs yovel aT weliwadSi. am aRweris Sedegebi gvaZ-
15
levs mosaxleobis saSualo asaks, Semosavals da sxva gansakuTrebul
maxasiaTeblebs aSS-is mosaxleobis. am informaciis misaRebad, mosaxl-
eobis aRweris biuros unda gaaCndes garkveuli saSualebebi Sesabamisi
monacemebis Sesagroveblad. mas Semdeg rac miRebulia (Segrovebulia)
monacemebi, aRweris biurom unda moaxdinos maTi organizeba da dajam-
eba. sabolood, aRweris biuros esaWiroeba saSualebebi (meTodebi) ra-
Ta miRebuli monacemebi warmoadginos azriani (an TvalsaCino) formiT,
magaliTad, cxrilebis, grafikebis an diagramebis formiT.
istoriuli SeniSvna. aRweriTi statistikis sawyisebi saTaves
iRebs monacemTa Segrovebis meTodebiT, romlebic gamoiyeneboda mosax-
leobis aRwerisas babilonsa da egvipteSi Zv. w. aRricxvis 4500 --
3000 wlebSi. garda amisa, romis imperatorma augustma (Zv. w. aRricx-
vis 27--17 wlebi) Caatara gamokvleva romis imperiis moqalaqeebis ro-
gorc dabadebisa da sikvdilianobis Sesaxeb, ise yoveli moqalaqis ku-
TvnilebaSi myofi saqonlis raodenobisa da maT mier wlis ganmavloba-
Si moyvanili sasoflo-sameurneo kulturebis Sesaxeb.
aRweriTi statistika gulisxmobs monacemebis Segrovebas, orga-
nizebas, dajamebasa da warmodgenas.
statistikis meore ganStoebas uwodeben statistikuri daskvne-
bis Teorias. aq, statistikosi cdilobs gaakeTos daskvnebi populaci-
is SerCevebidan (amorCevebidan). statistikuri daskvnebi iyenebs albaT-
obas, e. i. xdomilebis moxdenis Sanss. adamianebis didi nawilisaTvis
cnobilia albaTobis principialuri sqemebi azartuli TamaSebis sxva-
dasxva formebidan. adamiani romelic TamaSobs karts, saTamaSo kamaT-
els, bingosa da latareas, igebs an kargavs (agebs) albaTuri ganawil-
ebis kanonis mixedviT. albaTobis Teoria aseve gamoiyeneba sadazRvevo
saqmianobaSi da adamianis moRvaweobis sxva mraval sferoSi.
istoriuli SeniSvna. statistikuri daskvnebis Teoria saTaves
iRebs 1600 wlidan, rodesac jon grantma gamoaqveyna wigni mosaxleo-
bis zrdis Sesaxeb, sadac sikvdilianobis cxrilze dayrdnobiT gakeTe-
bulia bunebrivi da politikuri xasiaTis SeniSvnebi. TiTqmis imave
dros, maTematikosma da astronomma edmund halim gamoaqveyna sikvdil-
ianobis pirveli srulyofili cxrili (aRsaniSnavia, rom sadazRvevo
kompania iyenebs sikvdilianobis cxrilebs dazRvevis tarifis dasadge-
nad).
SemoviRoT axla populaciisa da SerCevis cnebebi da vnaxoT ra
gansxvavebaa maT Soris.
populacia Sedgeba yvela im obieqtisagan, romelic Seiswavleba
(is aris dakvirvebis yvela SesaZlo SedegTa simravle). umetes SemTx-
vevaSi, rigi mizezebis gamo (magaliTad, danaxarjebis siZvire, drois
simcire, populaciis moculobis sidide, samedicino problemebi da a.
S.) mkvlevars ara aqvs SesaZlebloba statistikuri kvlevisaTvis gam-
16
oiyenos mTliani populacia. amitom mkvlevari, rogorc wesi, iyenebs
SerCevas.
SerCeva aris obieqtebis garkveuli jgufi (nawili) amorCeuli
populaciidan. Tu SerCevis kiTxvebi (obieqtebi) sworadaa SerCeuli,
maSin umetes SemTxvevaSi isini iqnebian igive an analogiuri im maxasi-
aTeblebis rac kiTxvebs (obieqtebs) gaaCniaT populaciaSi.
populaciis srul aRweras Cven SerCevis gamoyofas da mis Sewa-
vlas vamjobinebT Tundac imitom, rom nawilis dakvirveba ufro iafia,
vidre mTelisa, Tumca xarjebis ekonomiis garda SerCevis upiratesob-
as sxva motivebic ganapirobeben. SerCevis umniSvnelovanesi saxeobaa
SemTxveviTi SerCeva. SemTxveviTi SerCeva gulisxmobs, rom populaciis
yoveli elementisaTvis gansazRrulia SerCevaSi moxvedris Sansi, alb-
aToba. rodesac SerCevis gegma iseTia, rom populaciis yoveli elemen-
tisaTvis SerCevaSi moxvedris Sansi erTnairia, amboben, rom gvaqvs ma-
rtivi SerCeva; SerCeva SemTxveviTi ricxvebis gamoyenebiT; e. w. siste-
maturi SerCeva (vTqvaT, yoveli me-10 erTeuli); ganSrevebuli SemTxv-
eviTi SerCeva uzrunvelyofs SerCevaSi popu-laciis sxvadasxva jgu-
fis warmomadgenlobas; klasteruli SerCeva populacias vyofT Tan-
aukveT nawilebad klasterebad, SemTxve-viT virCevT klasters da
Semdeg SerCeuls srulad aRvwerT.
statistikuri daskvnebis Teoriis nawils, romelic warmoadg-
ens populaciaze winadadebis Sefasebisas gadawyvetilebis miRebis
process, dafuZnebuls SerCevidan miRebul informaciaze, hipoTezaTa
Semowmeba ewodeba. magaliTad, mkvlevars SeiZleba survili hqondes
icodes amcirebs Tu ara axali preparati gulis SetevaTa raodenobas
70 welze ufro didi asakis mamakacebSi. amis gamosakvlevad, arCeuli
iqneba 70 wels gadacilebul mamakacTa ori SerCeva (jgufi). erT-erTi
SerCevis mamakacebs eZlevaT aRniSnuli preparati, xolo meore SerCev-
aSi myof mamakacebs aZleven raRac nivTierebas, romelsac janmrTelob-
is TvalsazrisiT adamianisaTvis arc sargeblobis motana SeuZlia da
arc zianis (e. w. placebo). eqsperimentis bolos iTvlian mamakacebis
TiToeul jgufSi momxdar gulis SetevaTa raodenobas, Semdeg atareb-
en statistikuri hipoTezis Semowmebis process da Rebuloben gadawy-
vetilebas preparatis efeqturobis Sesaxeb.
statistikosebi statistikur monacemebs iyeneben agreTve imis
gasarkvevad, Tu ra kavSiria sidideebs Soris? magaliTad, ukanaskneli
aTwleulebis ganmavlobaSi gansakuTrebuli yuradReba eqceva kavSiris
dadgenas mowevasa da filtvebis kibos Soris. 1964 wels aSS-is mTav-
arma qirurgma gamoaqveyna naSromi moweva da janmrTeloba, sadac na-
Tqvamia, rom monacemebis ganxilvisa da Sefasebis Semdeg misma jgufma
aRmoaCina garkveuli kavSiri mowevasa da filtvebis kibos Soris. mas
ar uTqvams, rom sigaretis moweva aris filtvebis kibos faqtiuri mi-
17
zezi, magram ambobs, rom maT Soris aris kavSiri. es daskvna dafuZneb-
uli iyo hamondisa da hornis mier 1958 wels Catarebul gamokvleva-
ze. am kvlevisas dakvirvebul iqna 187783 mamakaci 45 Tvis ganmavloba-
Si. aRmoCnda, rom filtvebis kiboTi gamowveuli sikvdilianobis koef-
icienti mamakacebis am jgufSi 10-jer ufro didi iyo mwevelebSi ara-
mwevelebTan SedarebiT.
dabolos, warsuli da mimdinare monacemebisa da pirobebis Ses-
wavliT statistikosebi cdiloben am informaciis safuZvelze gaakeT-
on prognozi (iwinaswarmetyvelon ra iqneba momavalSi). magaliTad, av-
tomobilebis dilers (gamyidvels), romelic naxavs gasuli gayidvebis
Canawerebs konkretuli Tveebis mixedviT, SeuZlia gadawyvitos Tu ra
tipis da ramdeni avtomobili (ama Tu im tipis) dasWirdeba momavali
wlis konkretul TveSi.
statistikuri daskvnebis Teoria moicavs ganzogadoebas SerCev-
idan populaciamde, hipoTezaTa Semowmebis kriteriumebis dadgenas, si-
dideebs Soris kavSiris dadgenas da prognozis gakeTebas.
sabolood, Cven mivdivarT Semdeg ganmartebamde.
statistika aris mecniereba, romelic erTis mxriv Seiswavlis
monacemebis Segrovebis, organizebis, klasifikaciis, sisitematizaciisa
da pirveladi damuSavebis meTodebs, xolo meores mxriv, Seiswavlis
damuSavebuli monacemebis analizisa da gamoyenebis meTodebs Teoriu-
li da praqtikuli daskvnebis miRebis mizniT. Sesabamisad, maTematiku-
ri statistika iyofa or nawilad: aRweriTi (e. w. deskrifciuli)
statistika da statistikuri daskvnebis Teoria, Tu ar CavTvliT al-
baTobis Teorias, romelic warmoadgens xids statistikis am or naw-
ils Soris. ufro zustad albaTobis Teoria warmoadgens statistik-
uri daskvnebis Teoriis maTematikur safuZvels.
statistikis aRwerilobiTi mxaridan naTeli xdeba, Tu moRvawe-
obis romel sferos exeba esa Tu is amocana, ekonomikas, demografias,
biologiasa Tu medicinas. amdenad, SeiZleba saubari ekonometrikaze,
demografiul statistikaze, biometriasa Tu biosamedicino statisti-
kaze, rogorc statistikis erTi SexedviT sxvadasxva sferoebze. sinam-
dvileSi, yoveli maTgani warmoadgens monacemTa sxvadasxva bazas, rom-
elTa damuSaveba da analizi xdeba maTematikuri statistikis meTodeb-
is gamoyenebiT. leqciaTa qvemoTmoyvanili kursiss mizania maTematiku-
ri statistikis meTodebis rolis warmoCineba da maTi gamoyeneba eko-
logiuri, biologiuri da samedicino praqtikidan mosuli monacemebis
analizisaTvis. moviyvanoT mokle CamonaTvali im eko-biologiuri da
samedicino sferoebisa, romelTa amocanebsac rogorc magaliTebs Cven
gamoviyenebT Cvens kursSi. es aris:
baqteriologia (Bacteriology), botanika (Botany), simsivnuri da-
avadebebi (Cancer), kardiologia (Cardiology), gulsisxlZarRvTa daava-
18
debebi (Cardiovascular Disease), tvinis daavadebebi (Cerebrovascular Dise-
ase), demografia (Demography), kanis daavadebebi (Dermatology), diab-
eti (Diabets), endokrinologia (Endocrinology), garemos dacva (Enviro-
nmental Health), epidemiologia (Epidemiology), kuWis daavadebebi (Gast-
roenterology), genetika (Genetics), ginekologia (Gynecology), hematol-
ogia (Hematology), RviZlis daavadebebi (Hepatic Disease), infeqciuri
daavadebebi (Infectious Disease), fsiqikuri daavadebebi (Mental Health)
mikrobiologia (Microbiology), ofTalmologia (Opthalmology), otola-
ringologia (Otolaringology), pediatria (Pediatrics), farmakologia
(Pharmacology), revmatologia (Rheumatology), sasporto medicina
(Sports Medicine) da a.S.
imisaTvis, rom warmodgena SeviqmnaT imaze, Tu risi Seswavla
SeuZlia statistikas, anu ra tipis amocanebis dasma da gadawyveta Se-
uZlia maTematikuri statistikis meTodebs, moviyvanoT aseTi magaliTi
samedicino (epidemiologiis) praqtikidan:
magaliTi 1.1. XX saukunis 40-50 wlebSi aSS-Si sazogadoebrio-
bis yuradReba mipyrobili iyo poliomieliTis epidemiisadmi. am serio-
zuli problemis gadaWris mizniT jonas selkma (Jonas Salk) pitsburg-
is universitetidan Seqmna vaqcina, romlis efeqturobac daadastura
ramodenime winaswarma laboratoriulma gamokvlevam. vaqcinis sazogad-
od efeqturobis dasadgenad aucilebeli gaxda masobrivi kvlevis Cat-
areba. magram amisaTvis saWiro iyo eqsperimentis sworad dagegmva da
misi sworad warmarTva. SemTxveviTi SerCevis meTodis (ix. qvemoT) sa-
fuZvelze SerCeul iqna ori milioni amerikeli skolis moswavle, ro-
melTa naxevars gaukeTes selkis vaqcina, xolo meore naxevars
placebo (Placebo) (uvnebeli wamali matyuara). kvlevis centrma da-
afiqsira, Tu vis gaukeTda selkis vaqcina da vis placebo. maTemati-
kuri statistikis meTodebis gamoyenebiT daasabuTes, rom poliomieli-
TiT inficirebulTa raodenoba gacilebiT dabalia selkis vaqciniT
acril moswavleebs Soris, vidre maT Soris visac gaukeTda placebo.
aqedan daaskvnes, rom selkis vaqcina efeqturia sazogadod poliomie-
liTis winaaRmdeg da is SemoiRes sayovelTao xmarebaSi.
upirveles yovlisa, SevniSnoT, rom statistikosisaTvis, rome-
lsac surda Seefasebina vaqcinis efeqturoba saskolo asakis bavSvebis
mTeli populaciisaTvis, xelmisawvdomi iyo am populaciis mxolod
nawilis SemTxveviT SerCeuli ori milioni acrili bavSvis monacemi.
statistikaSi mTeli populaciis aseT nawils SerCevas, an amokrefas
uwodeben. maSasadame, statistikosma daskvna unda gaakeTos garkveuli
ganusazRvrelobis pirobebSi da Sesabamisad, daskvniTi statistikis
ZiriTadi amocanaa SerCevidan miRebuli informaciis safuZvelze daskv-
nebis gakeTeba mTeli populaciisaTvis.
19
statistikuri amocanebis dasasmelad da gadasawyvetad mniSvne-
lovania mTelis ra nawilzea saubari SerCevis (amokrefis) formirebi-
sas. magaliTad, ar SeiZleba daskvnebis gakeTeba adamianis simaRlis Se-
saxeb romelime populaciaSi, masSi mxolod kalaTburTelTa simaRle-
ebze dakvirvebebis safuZvelze. arsebiTia, rom amokrefaSi moxvedris
Sansi Tanabari unda hqondes kalaTburTelsac da Cia kacsac. aseT Sem-
TxvevaSi amboben rom, amokrefa unda iyos warmomadgenlobiTi anu rep-
rezentatuli. swored es igulisxmeboda SemTxveviTi SerCevis meTodis
qveS eqsperimentis dagegmvisas 1.1 magaliTSi. mxolod aseTi SerCevebis
safuZvelze gakeTebuli ganzogadebebia misaRebi statistikuri daskvne-
bisaTvis.
statistikis Seswavlas Cven daviwyebT aRweriTi statistikis
amocanebiT, sadac SeviswavliT ricxviTi monacemebis warmodgenisa da
damuSavebis meTodebs. Semdeg gadavalT daskvniTi statistikis Seswav-
laze.
Tavi 2. monacemebis pirveladi damuSaveba.
2.1. monacemebis tipebi.
2.1.1. ricxviTi monacemebi:
diskretuli monacemebi gvxvdeba raime movlenis moxdenaTa rao-
denobebze dakvirvebisas. magaliTad, saswrafo samedicino daxmarebis
sadgurSi erT saaTis ganmavlobaSi Semosul gamoZaxebaTa raodenoba;
petris lambaqze baqteriaTa koloniebis raodenoba da a.S.
uwyveti tipis monacemebi miiReba im sididis gazomvebis Sedeg-
ad, romelsac SeuZlia garkveuli ricxviTi intervalis yvela mniSvne-
lobis miReba. magaliTad, wona, sigrZe, dro, temperatura, sisxlis
wneva da a.S.
2.1.2. kategoruli monacemebi:
atributuli monacemebi esaa Semdegi tipis ormniSvnelobebiani
(diqotomiuri) monacemebi: ki/ara, qali/aci, avadmyofi/janmrTeli da
sxva.
nominaluri tipis monacemebs aqvT ramodenime daulagebeli kat-
egoriis mniSvneloba. magaliTad, avadmyofobis tipebi, mcenareTa saxeo-
bebi da a.S.
ordinaluri tipis monacemebs gaaCniaT ramodenime dalagebuli
kategoriis mniSvneloba. magaliTad, avadmyofobis stadiebi.
2.2. monacemebis grafikuli warmodgena.
2.2.1. variaciuli mwkrivi. empiriuli ganawilebis funqcia.
magaliTi 2.1. cxrilSi mocemulia erT-erTi samSobiaro saxlis
20
axalSobilTa wonebi (gramebSi):
i x
i
i x
i
i x
i
i x
i
1 3265 6 3323 11 2581 16 2759
2 3260 7 3649 12 2841 17 3248
3 3245 8 3200 13 3609 18 3314
4 3484 9 3031 14 2838 19 3101
5 4146 10 2069 15 3541 20 2834
rogorc vxedavT, mocemulia n = 20 moculobis SerCeva
3265, 3260, 3245, 3484, 4146, 3323, 3649, 3200, 3031, 2069,
2581, 2841, 3609, 2838, 3541, 2759, 3248, 3314, 3101, 2834,
romlebic Sesabamisad aRniSnulia x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
simboloebiT. imisaTvis,
rom warmodgena SeviqmnaT am ricxvebis cvalebadobis sazRvrebis Sesa-
xeb, pirvel rigSi davalagoT es ricxvebi zrdadobis mixedviT, anu
statistikuri terminologiiT, SevadginoT monacemebis e.w. variaciuli
mwkrivi:
2069, 2581, 2759, 2834, 2838, 2841, 3031, 3101, 3200, 3245,
3248, 3260, 3265, 3314, 3323, 3484, 3541, 3609, 3649, 4146.
variaciuli mwkrivis elementebs sazogadod, Cven aRvniSnavT x
(1)
s x
(2)
s ... s x
(n)
simboloebiT. aq, sididiT mesame elements warmoadgens
rigiT me-16 monacemi, anu x
(3)
= x
16
= 2759. sainteresoa davsvaT Sebru-
nebuli kiTxva: sididiT meramdenea magaliTad, pirveli monacemi x
1
=
3265? variaciuli mwkrividan Cans, rom 3265 aris sididiT me-13 elem-
enti anu x
1
= 3265 = x
(13)
. am SemTxvevaSi amboben, rom pirveli monace-
mis rangia 13 da weren r
1
=13. analogiurad ganisazRvreba meore, mesa-
me da a.S. monacemebis rangebic. ufro zustad,
i
x monacemis rangi
(rank) ewodeba am monacemis nomers variaciul mwkrivSi, Tu arcerTi
monacemi ar meordeba (sxva sityvebiT,
i
x -s rangi ewodeba iseT mTel
ricxvs
i
r , romlisTvisac sruldeba toloba:
( )
i
r i
x x = ). toli monacem-
ebis SemTxvevaSi ki TiToeuls unda mivaniWoT variaciul mwkrivSi ma-
Tze mosuli nomrebis saSualo ariTmetikuli.
gamovsaxoT variaciuli mwkrivis elementebi grafikulad. amisa-
Tvis yovel x wertilSi daviTvaloT variaciul mwkrivSi x-is marcxn-
iv moTavsebuli elementTa raodenoba da SevafardoT is monacemTa sa-
erTo raodenobasTan, anu n-Tan. miRebul funqcias mocemuli SerCevis
Sesabamisi empiriuli ganawilebis funqcia ewodeba. mas F
n
(x) simbolo-
Ti aRniSnaven:
F
n
(x) = (1/n)#{im x
(i)
, romelTaTvisac x
(i)
s x}, (2.1)
aq #{A} simboloTi aRniSnulia A simravlis elementebis raodenoba.
Cveni magaliTisaTvis empiriuli ganawilebis funqcias aqvs Semd-
egi saxe:
21
2.2.2. sixSiruli ganawileba.
magaliTi 2.2. qvemoT moyvanilia erT-erTi dabis SemTxveviT
arCeul 87 ojaxSi skolis asakis bavSvTa raodenobebi:
ojaxSi bavSvebis
raodenoba
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
ojaxebis raodenoba 15 20 23 12 7 5 3 2 sul 87
am cxrilis pirvel striqonSi mocemulia ojaxebSi bavSvTa ra-
odenobebis sxvadasxva SesaZlo variantTa mniSvnelobebi, xolo meore
striqonSi ki Sesabamisi sixSireebi. sxva msgavs monacemebTan Sesadareb-
lad (magaliTad, igive sidides akvirdebodnen pirvel 16 ojaxSi) uf-
ro moxerxebulia es raodenobebi gadaviyvanoT e.w. fardobiT sixSire-
ebSi an procentebSi, rogorc es gakeTebulia qvemoT moyvanil cxril-
Si:
ojaxSi bavSvebis
raodenoba
ojaxebis fardobiTi
sixSire
ojaxebi procentebSi
0 15/87 ~ 0.1724 ~17.24%
1 20/87 ~ 0.2299 ~22.99%
2 23/87 ~ 0.2644 ~26.44%
3 12/87 ~ 0.1379 ~13.79%
4 7/87 ~ 0.0805 ~ 8.05%
5 5/87 ~ 0.0575 ~ 5.75%
6 3/87 ~ 0.0345 ~ 3.45%
7 2/87 ~ 0.0229 ~ 2.29%
jami 1 jami 100%
22
TvalsaCinoebisaTvis ukeTesia Sesabamisi sixSiruli cxrilebis
Semdegi grafikuli warmodgena:
2.2.3. uwyvet monacemTa dajgufeba, histograma, poligoni.
uwyvet monacemTa didi raodenobebis warmosadgenad iyeneben mon-
acemTa kategoriebad dayofis anu monacemTa dajgufebis xerxs. sxva
sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, axdenen uwyveti monacemebis diskretizacias,
anu maT ajgufeben kategoriebad (klasebad) da saubroben ara uwyveti
monacemis konkretul mniSvnelobaze, aramed im klasze, romelSic es
monacemi moxvda, rogorc diskretuli tipis monacemis erT-erT SesaZ-
lo mniSvnelobaze da amuSaveben aseT monacemebs, rogorc diskretuli
tipis monacemebs.
magaliTi 2.3. cxrilSi mocemulia sisxlis wnevis gazomvis Sed-
egebi (mm vwy. sv.) 120 avadmyofisaTvis:
104.1 94.2 114.2 103.8 144.7 102.8 101.1 114.2 143.1 134.3
95.5 105.5 125.1 97.2 115.3 152.5 125.4 96.9 105.2 117.5
130.4 132.8 100.5 120.3 150.4 133.4 163.3 130.6 109.4 130.7
157.3 170.3 127.3 118.5 180.3 147.3 127.3 126.8 137.7 106.5
143.6 133.5 103.6 166.3 127.4 132.6 140.6 153.6 148.6 143.3
137.8 135.4 130.5 177.5 130.8 135.8 127.8 137.8 127.5 93.8
87.9 96.9 107.9 90.4 119.5 88.9 107.9 127.3 100.9 105.9
140.5 120.5 120.8 142.3 123.2 120.8 134.3 82.5 138.3 124.5
120.0 125.0 123.1 122.3 113.0 132.4 122.0 129.0 142.6 121.0
96.8 110.8 106.8 136.5 170.8 117.7 99.8 116.5 136.8 96.4
94.7 124.1 190.5 165.2 122.4 135.4 137.3 96.3 153.6 133.6
107.1 147.8 94.9 127.9 145.5 137.5 142.3 109.0 116.7 125.8
23
imisaTvis, rom movaxdinoT monacemebis dajgufeba, pirvel rigSi
vnaxoT, Tu rogoria SerCevis diapazoni anu sxvaoba udides da umcir-
es monacems Soris: d = x
(n)
-x
(1)
. Cvens SemTxvevaSi, x
(n)
= 190.5 da x
(1)
=
82.5. amitom d = 190.5 - 82.5 = 108.
Semdeg, davyoT cvalebadobis intervali, anu [82.5; 190.5] inte-
rvali, k cal qveintervalad [a
i-1
; a
i
), i = 1,2,,k, sadac a
0
= x
(1)
da in-
tervalebis ricxvi k unda akmayofilebs pirobas: ln n s k s n
1/2
. Cvens
SemTxvevaSi, n = 100, da maSasadame, intervalebis ricxvi unda akmayof-
ilebdes pirobas 5 s k s 10. rac Seexeba dayofis klasebs, isini SeiZl-
eba iyos Tanabaric da araTanabaric, es damokidebulia Sesaswavli mov-
lenis bunebaze. magaliTad, demografiaSi sikvdilianobis cxrilebis
Sedgenisas, asakobriv intervals [0;5] weli kidev ufro awvrileben
erTwlian intervalebad, xolo danarCen asakobriv intervalebs, [5,10),
[10,15), . . . ,[95,100), [100,), ucvlelad toveben. es ganpirobebulia
danarCen asakebTan SedarebiT, mcirewlovanTa maRali sikvdilianobiT
nebismier populaciaSi. magram gacilebiT xSirad iReben Tanabari sigr-
Zis klasebs.
davubrundeT Cvens magaliTs da aviRoT, magaliTad, k = 9. Tanab-
ari dayofis SemTxvevaSi, TiToeuli qveintervalis sigrZe tolia l =
d/k =108/9=12. maSasadame, pirveli qveintervali iqneba [82.5; 94.5), me-
ore qveintervali [94.5; 106.5) da a.S., bolo qveintervali iqneba
[178.5; 190.5] (SevniSnoT, rom danarCenebisagan gansxvavebiT, bolo int-
ervali Caketilia).
daviTvaloT TiToeul qveintervalSi moxvedril monacemTa rao-
denobebi, SevafardoT isini monacemTa saerTo raodenobasTan da Sevad-
ginoT fardobiT sixSireTa Semdegi cxrili:
intervalis nomeri,
i
intervali [a
i -1
;
a
i
)
monacemTa fardobiTi
sixSire, f
i
1 [82.5; 94.5) 6/120 = 0.050
2 [94.5; 106.5) 20/120 = 0.167
3 [106.5; 118.5) 17/120 = 0.142
4 [118.5; 130.5) 30/120 = 0.250
5 [130.5; 142.5) 25/120 = 0.210
6 [142.5; 154.5) 13/120 = 0.107
7 [154.5; 166.5) 4/120 = 0.033
8 [166.5; 178.5) 3/120 = 0.025
9 [178.5; 190.5] 2/120 = 0.016
X = 1
histograma da poligoni monacemebis grafikuli warmodgenis ki-
dev erTi kargi saSualebaa. isini Semdegnairad igeba: TiToeul inter-
valze, rogorc fuZeze, avagoT marTkuTxedi, romlis simaRlea h
i
= f
i
/
24
l
i
, l
i
= a
i
- a
i-1
. radgan Cvens SemTxvevaSi, l
i
= a
i
- a
i-1
= l =12, amitom h
i
= f
i
/
12. miRebul marTkuTxedTa erTobliobas histogramas, xolo marTkuT-
xedebis zeda fuZeebis Suawertilebis SemaerTebel texils poligons
uwodeben. Sesabamis grafikebs aqvs Semdegi saxe:
2.2.4. foTlebiani Reroebis msgavsi diagrama
sixSireTa ganawileba grafikulad SeiZleba gamoisaxos agreTve
e. w. foTlebiani Reroebis msgavsi diagramiT, rac gulisxmobs mocemu-
li ricxvebidan aTobiTi niSnis gamoyofas (foTlebi) da danarCeni ni-
Snebis Sesabamisi ricxvebis zrdis mixedviT Camoweras TiTojer zevid-
an qvemoT vertikalurad (vertikaluri Rero). Semdeg, vertikalur
Reroze datanili fiqsirebuli pirveli ramodenime saerTo aTobiTi
niSnis gverdiT, am ricxvebis bolo aTobiTi niSnebis (foTlebis) amo-
weras rigrigobiT horizontalurad (horizontaluri Rero).
foTlebiani Reroebis msgavsi diagrama aris monacemTa organize-
bis meTodi, romelic Sedgeba monacemTa daxarisxebis da grafikulad
gamosaxvis kombinaciisagan. dagrovil sixSireTa ganawilebasTan Sedar-
ebiT misi upiratesoba imaSia, rom igi ukeT inaxavs faqtiur monacem-
ebs grafikul warmodgenasTan SedarebiT.
foTlebiani Reroebis msgavsi dagrama warmoadgens monacemebis
ganlagebis sqemas (gegmas), romelSic dakvirvebuli TiToeuli monace-
mis erTi nawili gamoiyeneba rogorc vertikaluri Rero, xolo meore
nawili ki rogorc foToli, raTa moxdes jgufebisa da klasebis for-
mireba.
magaliTi 24. qvemoT moyvanilia im pacientebis raodenoba, rom-
lebmac ambulatoriuli mkurnalobis centrs mimarTes kardiogramis
25
gadasaRebad 20 dRiani SerCevis ganmavlobaSi. avagoT am monacemebisaT-
vis foTlebiani Reroebis msgavsi diagrama.
25 31 20 32 13
14 43 02 57 23
36 32 33 32 44
32 52 44 51 45
amoxsna.
nabiji 1. davalagoT monacemebi zrdadobis mixedviT:
02, 13, 14, 20, 23, 25, 31, 32, 32, 32,
32, 33, 36, 43, 44, 44, 45, 51, 52, 57.
SeniSvna: monacemebis zrdis mixedviT dalageba ar aris auci-
lebeli, magram is moxerxebulia foTlebiani Reroe-
bis msgavsi diagramis asagebad.
nabiji 2. ganvacalkevoT (davajgufoT) monacemebi pirveli ci-
fris mixedviT, ise rogorc qvemoTaa naCvenebi:
02 13, 14 20, 23, 25 31, 32, 32,
32, 32, 33, 36
43, 44, 44, 45 51, 52, 57.
nabiji 3. avagoT diagrama, risTvisac monacemis pirveli cif-
ri gamoviyenoT vertikalur Rerod, xolo momdevno
cifri ki foTlad. magaliTad, monacemisaTvis 32,
pirveli cifri 3, aris Rero, xolo meore cifri 2,
aris foToli. monacemisaTvis 14, 1 aris Rero, xolo
4 ki foToli da a. S. sabolood, miviRebT qvemoT
moyvanil diagramas:
0 2
1 3 4
2 0 3 5
3 1 2 2 2 2 3 6
4 3 4 4 5
5 1 2 7
agebuli foTlebiani Reroebis msgavsi diagrama gviCvenebs, rom
monacemebis am ganawilebas piki aqvs centrSi da monacemebSi ar aris
wyveta. 20 dRidan 7 dRis ganmavlobaSi im pacientebis raodenoba, ro-
mlebmac gadaiRes kardiograma moTavsebulia 31-dan 36-mde. diagrama ag-
reTve gviCvenebs, rom ambulatoriul centrSi pacientebis raodenoba
dRis ganmavlobaSi meryeobda minimum 2 pacientidan maqsimum 57 pacien-
tamde.
amocanebi
1. 25 axalwveuls gaukeTes sisxlis analizi, raTa gaerkviaT
maTi sisxlis jgufi (tipi). monacemebis simravle aseTia:
26
A B B AB O
O O B AB B
B B O AB O
A O O O AB
AB A O B A
avagoT sixSireTa ganawileba da wriuli diagrama am monacemebisTvis.
2. qvemoT moyvanili monacemebi warmoadgens rekordul tempera-
turebs aSS-s 50 StatisTvis. avagoT am monacemebisaTvis dajgufebuli
sixSireTa ganawileba 7 klasis gamoyenebiT:
112 100 127 120 134 118 105 110 109 112
110 118 117 116 118 122 114 114 105 109
107 112 114 115 118 117 118 122 106 110
116 108 110 121 113 120 119 111 104 111
120 113 120 117 105 110 118 112 114 114
3. qvemoT moyvanili monacemebi warmoadgens milebis raodenobas,
rasac gadis erT galoni benziniT 30 sxvadasxva tipis manqana qalaqSi
moZraobisas. avagoT sixSireTa ganawileba.
12 17 12 14 16 18
16 18 12 16 17 15
15 16 12 15 16 16
12 14 15 12 15 15
19 13 16 18 16 14
4. avagoT histograma im monacemebis warmosadgenad, romlebic
moyvanilia qvemoT da Seesabameba amerikis 50-ive Statis rekordulad
maRal temperaturebs:
klasis sazRvrebi sixSire
99.5-104.5 2
104.5-109.5 8
109.5-114.5 18
114.5-119.5 13
119.5-124.5 7
124.5-129.5 1
129.5-134.5 1
5. wina magaliTSi moyvanili sixSireTa ganawilebisaTvis avagoT
sixSireTa poligoni.
6. avagoT histograma da sixSireTa 20 SemTxveviT SerCeuli
morbenalis mier kviris ganmavlobaSi garbenili manZilebis ganawile-
bis mixedviT:
klasis sazRvrebi sixSire dagrovili sixSire
5.5--10.5 1 1
10.5--15.5 2 3
15.5--20.5 3 6
20.5--25.5 5 11
27
25.5--30.5 4 15
30.5--35.5 3 18
35.5--40.5 2 20
7. qvemoT moyvanilia 1998 wlis ganmavlobaSi msubuq sauzmeze
daxarjuli funtebis raodenobis ganawileba sakvebis saxeobebis mixed-
viT. avagoT marTkuTxedebiani da wriuli diagrama.
msubuqi sauzme funtebi (sixSire)
kartofilis Cifsi 11.2 milioni
simindis Cifsi 8.2 milioni
funTuSa 4.3 milioni
simindis burbuSela 3.8 milioni
keqsi 2.5 milioni
jami n =30.0 milioni
8. sadazRvevo kompaniis xelmZRvanelobas ainteresebs gamoikvli-
os gasuli zafxulis 30 dRis ganmavlobaSi did qalaqSi moparul av-
tomanqanaTa ganawileba. dakvirvebuli nedli monacemebi moyvanilia qve-
moT:
52 62 51 50 69
58 77 66 53 57
75 56 55 67 73
79 59 68 65 72
57 51 63 69 75
65 53 78 66 55
avagoT foTlebiani Reroebis msgavsi diagrama Semdegi klasebis gamoye-
nebiT: 5054, 5559, 6064, 6569, 7074, 7579 da gavakeT-
oT Sesabamisi daskvnebi.
l e q c i a 2.
Tavi 3. ricxviT monacemTa SerCeviTi maxasiaTeblebi.
3.1. saSualo yofaqcevis maxasiaTeblebi.
3.1.1. SerCeviTi saSualo (saSualo ariTmetikuli).
SerCeviTi saSualo warmoadgens SerCevaSi Semavali monacemebis
saSualo ariTmetikuls. is aRiniSneba
n
x simboloTi da maTematikur-
ad ase Caiwereba:
n
x = (1/n) (x
1
+ x
2
++ x
i
)

=
n
i
i
x
n
1
1
. (3.1)
A axalSobilTa wonebis 2.1 magaliTisaTvis gvaqvs:
20
x =

=
20
1
20
1
i
i
x = (0.05) (x
1
+ x
2
++ x
20
) =
28
(0.05)(3265+3260+3245+3484+4146+3323+3649+3200+3031+2069+2581+
+2841+3609+2838+3541+2759+3248+3314+3101+2834) = 3166.9 (grami).
SevniSnoT, rom saSualo ariTmetikulis gamoTvlisaTvis monac-
emebis Tanmimdevrobas araviTari mniSvneloba ara aqvs. ase, rom
=
=
n
i
i n
x
n
x
1
) (
1
. (3.2)
monacemTa toli mniSvnelobebis SemTxvevaSi, ufro moxerxebu-
lia SerCeviTi saSualos gamoTvli Semdegi wesi: variantebi (gansxva-
vebul monacemTa mniSvnelobebi) gavamravloT Sesabamis sixSireebze
(maT raodenobebze SerCevaSi), SevkriboT da miRebuli Sedegi gavyoT
monacemTa raodenobaze, anu
=
=
r
i
i
i
n
n x
n
x
1
) (
1
, (3.3)
sadac x
(i)
aRniSnavs i-uri variantis ricxviT mniSvnelobas, n
i
i-uri
variantis sixSires da r - variantebis raodenobas.
SevniSnoT, rom SerCeviTi saSualo warmoadgens jams varianteb-
is mniSvnelobebis namravlisa Sesabamis fardobiT sixSireebze
=
=
r
i
i
i
n
f x x
1
) (
, (3.4)
sadac f
i
aRniSnavs i-uri variantis fardobiT sixSires f
i
= n
i
/n.
amave wesiT gamoiTvleba SerCeviTi saSualo dajgufebuli mona-
cemebis SemTxvevaSic, oond x
(i)
variantis ricxviT mniSvnelobis magiv-
rad, (3.4) formulaSi iReben dajgufebis i-uri intervalis Sua wert-
ils k i a a m
i i i
,..., 2 , 1 , 2 / ) (
1
= + =

:
=
=
r
i
i i n
f m x
1
. (3.5)
(3.5) formulis gamoyenebis sailustraciod gavixsenoT fardo-
biT sixSireTa cxrili 2.3 magaliTidan. am SemTxvevaSi, k = 9. cxrili-
dan gvaqvs, rom 5 . 88 2 / ) 5 . 94 5 . 82 ( 2 / ) (
1 0 1
= + = + = a a m . analogiurad,
m
2
= 100.5, m
3
= 112.5, m
4
= 124.5, m
5
= 136.5, m
6
= 148.5, m
7
= 160.5, m
8
=
172.5, m
9
= 184.5. amitom (3.5) formulidan miviRebT:
=
9
x 88.50.05+100.50.167+112.50.142+124.50.25+136.50.21+148.50.107+
+160.50.033+172.50.025+184.50.016 = 125.42.
3.1.2. SerCeviTi mediana.
xSirad monacemebis saSualo mniSvnelobas axasiaTeben ara misi
sididis, aramed saSualedo (medianuri) adgilmdebareobis mixedviTac
variaciul mwkrivSi. Sesabamis sidides SerCeviTi mediana ewodeba. Ser-
CeviTi medianis gamoTvlis wesi Semdegia:
29
+ =
+
+
luwia Tu
kentia Tu
n
x x
n x
m
n n
n
n
,
2
,
) 1 2 ( ) 2 (
) 2 ) 1 ( (
magaliTi 3.1. cxrilSi mocemulia sisxlSi TeTri nawilakebis
raodenobebi cxra avadmyofisaTvis:
I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
x
I
7000 35000 5000 9000 8000 3000 10000 12000 8000
SevadginoT variaciuli mwkrivi:
3000, 5000, 7000, 8000, 8000, 9000, 10000, 12000, 35000.
movZebnoT am cxra mniSvnelobidan Sualeduri, anu iseTi, romlis mar-
cxniv da marjvniv moxvdeba variaciuli mwkrivis wevrTa Tanabari rao-
denoba. radgan wevrTa raodenoba kenti ricxvia, cxadia, rom aseTi iq-
neba variaciuli mwkrivis mexuTe elementi, anu x
(5)
= 8000. SerCeviT
medianas m
n
simboloTi aRniSnaven. maSasadame, Cveni magaliTisaTvis, m
9
= 8000.
gavixsenoT 2.1 magaliTi, sadac gvqonda monacemTa luwi raoden-
oba (n = 20). rogorc vnaxeT, Sesabamis variaciul mwkrivs hqonda Sem-
degi saxe:
2069, 2581, 2759, 2834, 2838, 2841, 3031, 3101, 3200, 3245,
3248, 3260, 3265, 3314, 3323, 3484, 3541, 3609, 3649, 4146.
medianis gamosaTvleli formulidan n = 20-Tvis miviRebT:
m
20
= (x
(10)
+ x
(11)
)/2 = (3245 + 3248)/2 = 3246.5.
3.1.3. wanacvlebuli (asimetriuli) da simetruli SerCevebi.
ganvixiloT SerCeviTi saSualosa da medianis Sedarebis sakiTxi.
davaxasiaToT
n n
m x sxvaoba. ganvixiloT jer kenti n-is SemTxveva.
cxadia, rom
, = = =

=
+ +
=
n
i
n i n
n
i
i n n
x x
n
x x
n
m x
1
) 2 / ) 1 (( ) ( ) 2 / ) 1 ((
1
) (
1 1
, ,
.
|
\
|
=

=
+
+ + =
+
2 / ) 1 (
1
) ( ) 2 / ) 1 ((
1 2 / ) 1 (
) 2 / ) 1 (( ) (
1
n
i
i n
n
n i
n i
x x x x
n
.
amrigad,
n n
m x > 0 , ,

=
+
+ + =
+
>
2 / ) 1 (
1
) ( ) 2 / ) 1 ((
1 2 / ) 1 (
) 2 / ) 1 (( ) (
n
i
i n
n
n i
n i
x x x x .
maSasdame,
n n
m x sxvaoba dadebiTia, anu
n n
m x > , Tu medianis marjvn-
iv moTavsebuli monacemebi (mTlianobaSi) ufro metadaa daSorebuli
medianidan, vidre mis marcxniv moTavsebuli monacemebi da piriqiT,
n n
m x sxvaoba uaryofiTia, anu
n n
m x < , Tu medianis marcxniv moTav-
sebuli monacemebi ufro metadaa daSorebuli medianidan, vidre mis ma-
rjvniv moTavsebuli monacemebi. analogiuri msjeloba samarTliania
30
luwi n-isaTvisac. pirvel SemTxvevaSi amboben, rom SerCeva dadebiTad,
xolo meoreSi uaryofiTadaa wanacvlebuli (asimetriulia). im SemT-
xvevaSi, roca SerCeviTi saSualo da mediana daaxloebiT tol mniSvne-
lobebs Rebulobs, vityviT, rom SerCeva simetrulia.
3.1.4. SerCeviTi moda.
SerCeviT monacemebs Soris yvelaze xSirs SerCeviTi moda ewod-
eba. 2.1 magaliTis mixedviT, yvelaze xSiri orbavSviani ojaxebia, maTi
ricxvi 23-s Seadgens. aseT SemTxvevaSi (roca arsebobs erTi yvelaze
xSiri monacemi) vityviT, rom SerCeva unimodaluria. Tu SerCevaSi
yvelaze xSiri monacemebis raodenoba oria, amboben, rom SerCeva bimod-
aluria. Tu xSiri monacemebis raodenoba samia, amboben, rom SerCeva
trimodaluria da a.S.
3.2. SerCevis gafantulobis (ganfenilobis) maxasiaTeblebi.
3.2.1. SerCevis diapazoni. boqsploti. rangi.
SerCevis diapazoni ewodeba sxvaobas SerCevis udides da umcir-
es mniSvnelobebs Soris: d =x
max
-x
min
=x
(n)
-x
(1)
.
2.3 magaliTis SemTxvevaSi, x
(n)
= 190.5 da x
(1)
= 82.5. amitom SerC-
evis diapazoni tolia d = 190.5 - 82.5 = 108.
SerCeviTi diapazonis ricxviTi mniSvneloba, roca is sakmarisad
didia, bevrs verafers gveubneba dakvirvebadi movlenis Sesaxeb. garda
amisa, is arsebiTadaa damokidebuli SerCevis n moculobaze da ar gam-
odgeba sxvadasxva moculobis SerCevaTa Sesadareblad.
saSualedo monacemebis ganlagebisa da Sesabamisad, maTi gafant-
ulobis Sesaxeb informacias iZleva e. w. procentilebi (percentiles).
procentilebi erTdroulad warmoadgens monacemTa ganlagebisa da ma-
Ti gafantulobis sazoms. vTqvaT, P raime ricxvia, moTavseebuli 0-sa
da 100-s Soris 0 100 P < < . monacemTa simravlis P rigis procenti-
li (ubralod P -procentili) ewodeba iseT

p x mniSvnelobas (sidid-
es), romelsac gaaCnia Semdegi Tviseba: monacemTa araumetes P %-isa
naklebia an toli

p x -ze da araumetes (100- P )%-isa metia an toli
p x -ze. cxadia, rom mediana warmoadgens 50-procentils. Tu 100 P o = ,

maSin medianis analogiurad P -procentilis (

p x -s) gamosaTvleli gam-
osaxuleba iqneba:
([ ] 1)
p
n
x x
o +
= , roca no ar aris mTeli ricxvi, da
( ) ( 1)
2
n n
p
x x
x
o o+
+
= , roca no mTeli ricxvia.
25-procentils ewodeba pirveli kvartili (quartile) da aRiniS-
neba
1
Q -iT (10-procentils decili (decile) ewodeba), xolo 75-proce-
31
ntils ewodeba mesame kvartili da aRiniSneba
3
Q -iT. 50-procentils
(romelic warmoadgens medianas), agreTve uwodeben meore kvartils.
sxva sityvebiT, rom vTqvaT,

1 2
( , , ) Q x Q kvartilebi monacemTa simravles
pirobiTad oTx tol nawilad yofs. kvartilTSorisi gabnevis diapaz-
oni (Interquartial range -- IQR) ewodeba sidides:
3 1
IQR Q Q = . kvarti-
lebi medianasTan erTad, e. i. sameuli

1 2
( , , ) Q x Q gvaZlevs garkveul
warmodgenas monacemTa centris, gabnevisa da ganawilebis (gagluvebuli
histogramisa da poligonis) formis Sesaxeb. am SemTxvevaSi

3 1
13 6 Q x x Q = > = (mesame kvartili ufro Sorsaa medianisagan, vid-
re pirveli kvartili), rac miuTiTebs imaze, rom ganawileba marjvniv
asimetriulia (misi marjvena bolo ufro asimetriulia, vidre marcxe-
na).
ukanasknel periodSi gansakuTrebuli popularobiT sargeblobs
monacemTa ganawilebis vizualuri warmoCenis axali saSualeba e. w.
boqsploti (boxplot). boqsploti mdgradi sazomebis (
1
Q ,

x ,
3
Q ,
IQR) meSveobiT saSualebas iZleva gamoikveTos monacemTa simravlis
zogierTi Tavisebureba: a). ganlagebis centri; b). gafantuloba; g). ga-
vrcoba da simetriulobidan gadaxris buneba da bolos, moxdes d).
amovardnili (outlier) monacemebis identifikacia. aRvweroT, Tu rog-
or xdeba boqsplotis ageba:
3IQR 3IQR
1.5IQR 1.5IQR
Q
1

x Q
3
boqsploti
1) gavavloT horizontaluri RerZi da masze movniSnoT
1
Q ,

x da
3
Q ;
2) avagoT marTkuTxedi, romlis gverdebi marTobulia horizontaluri
RerZis da romlis marcxena gverdi
1
Q -is, xolo marjvena ki
3
Q -is
zemoTaa moTavsebuli;
3) gavavloT vertikaluri wrfe marTkuTxedSi medianis zeviT;
4) marTkuTxedis TiToeuli gverdidan gavavloT horizontaluri Rer-
Zis paraleluri ori wrfe, pirvelze gadavzomoT 1.5 IQR, xolo meor-
eze ki 3 IQR sigrZis monakveTebi;
5) yoveli monacemis Sesabamis wertilze, romelic marTkuTxedis gver-
didan gadazomil 1.5 IQR-sa da 3 IQR-s Sorisaa moTavsebuli Semovxaz-
oT wrewiri. am monacemebs ewodeba zomieri amovardnebi, xolo im
monacemebis Sesabamis wertilebze, romlebic moTavsebulia marTkuTxe-
32
dis gverdidan gadazomili 3 IQR-is gareT SemovxazoT gamuqebuli wre.
aseTi wreebiT Semoxazul monacemebs eqstremaluri amovardnebi ewo-
deba.
monacemis rangi (rank) ewodeba am monacemis nomers variaciul
mwkrivSi (toli monacemebis SemTxvevaSi TiToeuls mivaniWoT maTze
mosuli rangebis saSualo ariTmetikuli). mocemuli monacemis procen-
tuli rangi warmoadgens am monacemis qveviT mdgom monacemebze mosu-
li procentebisa (
1
100%
r
n
) da Tavad monacemze mosuli procenteb-

is naxevaris (
0.5
100%
n
) jams. Tu n SerCevis moculobaa, xolo mona-
cemis rangia r , maSin am monacemis procentuli rangi moicema Semdegi
formuliT:
1 0.5 2 1
100% 100% 100%
2
r r
n n n

+ = . Tu SerCevis elementis
procentuli rangia P , maSin es elementi warmoadgens SerCevis P -
procentils
3.2.2. SerCeviTi absoluturi gadaxra.
absoluturi gadaxris azriT monacemebis mniSvnelobaTa gafant-
ulobis saukeTeso maCvenebels warmoadgens sidide

=

n
i
n i
m x
n
1
| |
1
, ro-
melsac SerCeviT absolutur gadaxras uwodeben. es sidide gacilebiT
mdgradia anomaluri monacemebis SemTxvevaSi, vidre saSualo standa-
rtuli gadaxra (ix. qvemoT), Tumca garkveuli mosazrebebis gamo, mas
praqtikaSi naklebad iyeneben.
3.2.3. SerCeviTi dispersia. SerCeviTi standartuli gadaxra.
SerCeviTi dispersia warmoadgens monacemTa gafantulobis saz-
oms, romelic gviCvenebs monacemebis mniSvnelobaTa saSualo gadaxras
SerCeviTi saSualosagan:
=
=
n
i
n i n
x x
n
s
1
2 2
) (
1
. (3.6)
ariTmetikul kvadratul fesvs SerCeviTi dispersiidan SerCeviT
standartul gadaxras uwodeben da mas
n
o -iT aRniSnaven:
n
o =

=

n
i
n i
x x
n
1
2
) (
1
. (3.7)
axalSobilTa wonebis Sesaxeb 2.1 magaliTisaTvis gvaqvs
2
20
s = (1/20)((3265 3166.9)
2
+ (3260 3166.9)
2
+ + (2834 3166.9)
2
) ~
188452;
20
o = (188452)
1/2
~ 434.3 (grami).
33
garkveuli mosazrebebis gamo (ix. leqcia 7),
2
n
s isa da
n
o -is
nacvlad iyeneben e.w. Sesworebul SerCeviT dispersiasa da Sesworebul
standartul gadaxras. es Sesworeba gulisxmobs zemoxsenebuli sidi-
deebis gamosaxulebebSi kvadratebis jamis gayofas (n -1)ze da ara n-
ze. miRebuli sidideebi Sesabamisad
2
n
s iTa da o
n
-iT aRiniSneba. maSas-
adame,
2
n
s =

=

n
i
n i
x x
n
1
2
) (
1
1
da o
n
=

=

n
i
n i
x x
n
1
2
) (
1
1
. (3.8)
2.1 magaliTisaTvis gveqneba, rom:
2
20
s = (1/19)((3265 3166.9)
2
+ (3260 3166.9)
2
+ + (2834 3166.9)
2
) ~
207979.2;
20
o = (207979.2)
1/2
~ 456.05 (grami).
am maxasiaTebelTa mniSvnelovnebaze laparakobs Semdegi magaliTi.
magaliTi 3.2. qvemoT moyvanilia erTidaimave pirovnebisaTvis qo-
lesterinis sididis ori sxvadasxva meTodiT gazomvis Sedegebi:
avtoanalizuri meTodi
(mg%/ml)
mikroencimaluri meTodi
(mg%/ml)
cxadia, rom
5
x = (1/5) (177 + 193 + 195 + 209 + 226) = 200,
5
y = (1/5) (192 + 197 + 200 + 202 + 209) = 200,
anu orive meTodiT miRebuli SerCeviTi saSualoebi tolia, maSin ro-
desac vizualuradac kargad Cans, rom es SerCevebi radikalurad gans-
xvavdebian: meore SemTxvevaSi monacemebi ufro mWidrodaa Tavmoyrili
SerCeviTi saSualos mimarT, vidre pirvelSi. es aisaxeba swored am
monacemebis SerCeviT dispersiebSi (standartul gadaxrebSi):
avtoanalizuri meTodis SemTxvevaSi gvaqvs
o
5
=((1/4)((177-200)
2
+(193-200)
2
+(195-200)
2
+(209-200)
2
+(226-
200)
2
))
1/2
=340
1/2
~18.4,
xolo mikroencimaluri meTodis SemTxvevaSi gveqneba
o
5
=((1/4)((192-200)
2
+(197-200)
2
+(200-200)
2
+(202-200)
2
+(209-
200)
2
))
1/2
=(39.5)
1/2
~6.3.
rogorc vxedavT, meore SemTxvevaSi standartuli gadaxra (gaf-
antuloba) pirvelTan SedarebiT samjer naklebia da bunebrivia CavTva-
loT, rom adamianis organizmSi qolesterinis Semcvelobis dasadgenad
200
177 193 195 209 226
192 197 202 209
34
meore meTodi jobia pirvels, radgan am SemTxvevaSi naklebia gazomvis
Secdomis riski.
3.2.4. variaciis koeficienti.
SerCeviTi variaciis koeficienti, V
n
simboloTi aRiniSneba da
ganimarteba rogorc SerCeviTi standartuli gadaxris Sefardeba Ser-
CeviTi saSualos ricxviT mniSvnelobasTan, anu
n
n
n
x
V
o
= . (3.9)
gamovTvaloT variaciis koeficientis ricxviTi mniSvneloba axa-
lSobilTa wonebis 2.1 magaliTSi. rogorc gvaxsovs,
20
x =3166.9 da
20
o =456.05. amitom V
20
= 456.05 / 3166.9 = 0.144 (an procentebSi 14.4%).
variaciis koeficienti gansakuTrebiT xSirad gamoiyeneba im
sxvadasxva SerCevebis variaciulobis (cvalebadobis) Sesadareblad,
romlebsac gansxvavebuli SerCeviTi saSualoebi aqvT.
sailustraciod ganvixiloT Semdegi magaliTi. cnobilia, rom
axalSobilebi pirveli ramdenime dRis ganmavlobaSi ikleben wonaSi da
mxolod amis Semdeg xdeba maTi wonaSi mateba. 2.1 magaliTSi moyvanil
monacemebTan erTad, SevxedoT axalSobilTa wonebs dabadebidan sami
dRis Semdeg da davinteresdeT Tu ramdenad cvalebadobs monacemebi.
cxrilSi mocemulia axalSobilTa wonebi (2.1 magaliTis mixedviT) da
maTi wonebi sami dRis Semdeg (ujredebis qveda striqonSi mocemuli
ricxvebi):
i x
i
i x
i
i x
i
i x
i
1
3265
3127
6
3323
3205
11
2581
2345
16
2759
2700
2
3260
3053
7
3649
3407
12
2841
2710
17
3248
3155
3
3245
3180
8
3200
3054
13
3609
3500
18
3314
3265
4
3484
3350
9
3031
2827
14
2838
2709
19
3101
3010
5
4146
4010
10
2069
1970
15
3541
3480
20
2834
2782
rogorc gvaxsovs,
20
x = 3166.9,
20
o = 456.05 da V
20
= 0.144.
msgavsi gamoTvlebi ujredebis qveda striqonSi mdgomi monacemebisaT-
vis iZleva:
1
20
x =3042,
1
20
o = 445.46 da
1
20
V = 0.146. rogorc vxedavT,
miuxedavad imisa, rom axalSobilTa wonam sami dRis ganmavlobaSi sa-
Sualod daiklo 125 (=3166.9-3042) gramiT, variaciuloba TiTqmis ar
Secvlila V
20
~
1
20
V .
35
variaciis koeficientis gamoyeneba mizanSewonilia agreTve sxva-
dasxva sidideebze dakvirvebebiT miRebuli SerCevebis Sesadareblad.
3.3. SerCeviTi ricxviTi maxasiaTeblebis Tvisebebi.
3.3.1. SerCeviTi saSualos Tvisebebi:
1) davuSvaT SerCevis yoveli monacemi wavanacvleT erTidaigive
c
1
sididiT, anu y
i
= x
i
+ c
1
, i = 1,2,,n, maSin miRebuli SerCevis SerCev-
iTi saSualo wanacvldeba c
1
-is toli sididiT, anu
1
c x y
n n
+ = . marT-
lac,
= + + + + + + = + = =

= =
) ... (
1
) (
1 1
1 1 2 1 1
1
1
1
c x c x c x
n
c x
n
y
n
y
n
n
i
i
n
i
i n
,
1 1 2 1 1 2 1
1
) ... (
1
) ... (
1
c x c n
n
x x x
n
c n x x x
n
n n n
+ = + + + + = + + + + =
2) davuSvaT SerCevis yovel monacems SevucvaleT masStabi erT-
idaigive c
2
sididiT, anu y
i
= c
2
x
i
, i = 1,2,,n. maSin miRebuli SerCevis
SerCeviTi saSualos masStabic Seicvleba c
2
-jer. marTlac,
= + + + = = =

= =
) ... (
1 1 1
2 2 2 1 2
1
2
1
n
n
i
i
n
i
i n
x c x c x c
n
x c
n
y
n
y
,
n n
x c x x x
n
c
= + + +
2 2 1
2
... .
SevniSnoT, rom Tu x
i
= c, i = 1,2,,n, maSin c x
n
= , anu mudmivi
SerCevis SerCeviTi saSualo TviTon es mudmivia.
gavaerTianoT wina ori Tviseba Semdeg erT Tvisebad:
3) Tu gardavqmniT SerCevis yovel monacems erTidaigive wrfivi
gardaqmniT y
i
= c
2
x
i
+ c
1
, i = 1,2,,n, maSin SerCeviTi saSualoc Seicvle-
ba imave wrfivi gardaqmniT, anu
1 2
c x c y
n n
+ = .
SesaZlebelia ukanasknelis kidev ufro ganzogadeba. kerZod, sam-
arTliania Semdegi Tviseba:
4) davuSvaT, SerCeva warmoadgens ori (an meti) sxvadasxva Ser-
Cevis wrfiv kombinacias, anu z
i
= c
1
x
i
+ c
2
y
i
, yoveli i-saTvis, i = 1,2,,
n, maSin SerCeviTi saSualoc iqneba saSualoebis Sesabamisi wrfivi ko-
mbinacia:
n n n
y c x c z + =
2 1
.
5) ori SerCevis gaerTianebiT miRebuli SerCevis saSualo cal-
keul saSualoTa Sewonili jamis tolia.
Tu
1
x , . . . ,
n
x da
1
y , . . . ,
m
y ori SerCevaa, maSin
1
x , . . . ,
n
x ,
1
y , . . . ,
m
y gaerTianebuli SerCevis saSualo moicema formuliT:
n m
z x y
n m n m
= +
+ +
.
36
3.3.2. SerCeviT dispersiis Tvisebebi:
1) mudmivi SerCevis SerCeviTi dispersia (da standartuli gad-
axra) 0-is tolia. marTlac, radganac x
i
= c, i = 1,2,,n, da c x
n
= , ami-
tom
2
n
s = 0 0
1
1
) (
1
1
) (
1
1
1 1
2
1
2
=

= = =
n
i
n
i
n
i
n i
n
c c
n
x x
n
.
2) davuSvaT SerCevis yoveli monacemi wavanacvleT erTidaigive
c
1
sididiT, anu y
i
= x
i
+ c
1
, i = 1,2,,n, maSin miRebuli SerCevis SerCev-
iTi dispersia ar Seicvleba, anu
2
,n y
s =
2
,n x
s .
3) davuSvaT SerCevis yovel monacems SevucvaleT masStabi erT-
idaigive c sididiT, anu y
i
= cx
i
, i = 1,2,,n. maSin miRebuli SerCevis
SerCeviTi dispersia Seicvleba c
2
sididiT, anu
2
,n y
s = c
2
2
,n x
s . marTlac,
2
,n y
s =
=

=
n
i
n i
y y
n
1
2
) (
1
1
=
=

= =
2
1
2 2
1
2
) (
1
1
) (
1
1
c x x
n
c x c x c
n
n
i
n i
n
i
n i
2
,n x
s .
4) Tu
1
,...,
n
x x da
1
,...,
m
y y ori SerCevaa, maSin gaerTianebuli
SerCevisaTvis
1 1
,..., , ,...,
n m
x x y y SerCeviTi dispersia da Sesworebuli
SerCeviTi dispersiebi gadaiTvleba Semdegnairad:
2 2 2 2
2
( )
( )
x y
n m mn
s s s x y
m n m n m n
= + +
+ + +
da
' 2 ' 2 ' 2 2
1 1
( )
( 1)( )
x y
n m mn
s s s x y
m n m n m n m n

= + +
+ + + +
(im kerZo SemTxvevaSi, roca m n = da x y = , gaerTianebuli SerCevis
SerCeviTi dispersia iqneba Tavidan aRebuli SerCevebis SerCeviTi dis-
persiebis saSualo ariTmetikuli:
2 2 2
( ) / 2
x y
s s s = + ).
3.4. dawyvilebuli monacemebi. korelacia
xSir SemTxvevaSi mkvlevari dainteresebulia daadginos or si-
dides Soris kavSiri arsebobs Tu ara. am mizniT ori damkvirvebeli
erTdroulad atarebs dakvirvebebs da miRebul monacemebs awyvilebs
erTmaneTTan. magaliTad, Tu Cven gvainteresebs kavSiri haeris tempera-
turasa da atmosferul wnevas Soris, maSin drois erTi da imave mom-
entSi pirveli damkvirvebeli zomavs haeris temperaturas, xolo meo-
re ki atmosferul wnevas. pirveli dakvirvebis an gazomvis obieqts
uwodeben damoukidebel sidides, da aRniSnaven x -iT, xolo meore dak-
virvebis an gazomvis obieqts uwodeben damokidebul sidides da aRni-
37
Snaven y -iT. ama Tu im or maxasiaTebels (an or maCvenebels) Soris
kavSiris Seswavlis mizniT am maxasiaTeblebis dakvirvebuli mniSvnel-
obebis simravle warmovadginoT wyvilebis simravlis saxiT:
1 1
( , ), x y
2 2
( , ) x y , . . . , ( , )
n n
x y . am monacemebis mixedviT ageben e. w. gabnevis dia-
gramas. x da y sidideebs Soris SesaZlebelia arsebobdes ramodenime
gansxvavebuli tipis damokidebuleba. am damokidebulebis garkveva (id-
entificireba) SesaZlebelia sakoordinato sibrtyeze wertilebis gan-
lagebis struqturaze dayrdnobiT:
1. dadebiTi wrfivi kavSiri arsebobs im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac
wertilebi daaxloebiT lagdeba aRmavali swori xazis irgvliv.
2. uaryofiTi wrfivi kavSiri arsebobs im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac
wertilebi daaxloebiT lagdeba daRmavali swori xazis irgvliv.
3. arawrfivi kavSiri arsebobs im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac werti-
lebi daaxloebiT lagdeba arawrfivi wiris irgvliv.
4. ar aris kavSiri im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac wertilebi uwesri-
godaa mimofantuli, ar Cans rom isini raime wiris irgvlivaa koncen-
trirebuli.
dadebiTi wrfivi kavSiri
0
100
200
300
400
0 50 100 150
uaryofiTi wrfivi kavSiri
0
100
200
300
400
0 50 100 150
arawrfivi kavSiri
0
100
200
300
400
0 50 100 150
ar aris kavSiri
0
200
400
600
0 50 100 150
wirs, romelic aRwers kavSirs (damokidebulebas) x da y si-
dideebis mniSvnelobebs Soris misadagebis wiri ewodeba. am wiris pov-
nis sakiTxebs swavlobs maTematikuri statistikis nawili, romelsac
regresiuli analizi ewodeba. wiris mosaZebnad iyeneben e. w. umcires
38
kvadratTa meTods, romlis Tanaxmadac iZebneba iseTi wiri ( ) y f x = ,
rom: gamosaxuleba
2
1
[ ( )]
n
i i
i
y f x
=

aRwevs Tavis minimums.

Tu magaliTad, sidideebs Soris gvaqvs wrfivi kavSiri, maSin
misadagebis wiri wrfivi funqciaa, anu ( ) f x ax b = + ,sadac
1 1 1
2 2
1 1
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
n n n
i i i i
i i i
n n
i i
i i
n x y x y
a
n x x
= = =
= =

=

da
2
1 1 1 1
2 2
1 1
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
n n n n
i i i i i
i i i i
n n
i i
i i
y x x x y
b
n x x
= = = =
= =

=

.
magaliTi 3.3. avagoT gabnevis diagrama monacemebisaTvis, romel-
ic miiReba 6 SemTxveviT SerCeuli pirovnebis asaksa da arteriuli
wnevas Soris damokidebulebis Seswavlisas. monacemebis cxrilia:
persona asaki, x wneva, y
A 43 128
B 48 120
C 56 135
D 61 143
E 67 141
F 70 152
amoxsna.
nabiji 1. davxazoT sakoordinato sibrtye da movniSnoT x da
y RerZebi.
nabiji 2. movniSnoT TiToeuli wertili grafikze rogorc es
qvemoTaa naCvenebi:
gabnevis diagrama
110
120
130
140
150
160
30 40 50 60 70 80
asaki
w
n
e
v
a
statistikaSi iyeneben e. w. korelaciis koeficients, raTa gaz-
omon or sidides Soris damokidebulebis xarisxi. SerCeviTi korelac-
iis koeficienti moicema Semdegi TanafardobiT:
1 1 1
2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1
( ) ( ) ( )
[ ( ) ( ) ] [ ( ) ( ) ]
n n n
i i i i
i i i
n n n n
i i i i
i i i i
n x y x y
r
n x x n y y
= = =
= = = =

=

.
39
magaliTi 3.4. gamovTvaloT korelaciis koeficientis mniSvnel-
oba 3.3 magaliTSi.
amoxsna.
nabiji 1. gavakeToT cxrili ise rogors es qvemoTaa naCvenebi:
persona asaki, x wneva, y
xy
2
x
2
y
A 43 128
B 48 120
C 56 135
D 61 143
E 67 141
F 70 152
nabiji 2. gamovTvaloT xy ,
2
x da
2
y gamosaxulebaTa mniSvne-
lobebi da SevitanoT cxrilis Sesabamis svetebSi.
SevkriboT svetebSi moTavsebuli mniSvnelobebi. das-
rulebul cxrils eqneba Semdegi saxe:
pers-
ona
asaki, x wneva, y
xy
2
x
2
y
A 43 128 5.504 1.849 16.384
B 48 120 5.760 2.304 14.400
C 56 135 7.560 3.136 18.225
D 61 143 8.723 3.721 20.449
E 67 141 9.447 4.489 19.881
F 70 152 10.640 4.900 23.104
345 x =
819 y =

= xy
47.634
=
2
x
20.399
2
112.443 y =
nabiji 3. miRebuli mniSvnelobebi SevitanoT korelaciis koe-

ficientis formulaSi da gamovTvaloT r :
2 2
6 47.634 345 819
0.897
(6 20.399 345 ) (6 112.443 819 )
r

= =

.
daskvna. korelaciis koeficientis miRebuli mniSvneloba gveubn-
eba, rom adamianis asaksa da arteriul wnevas Soris arsebobs mkacrad
dadebiTi wrfivi damokidebuleba.
amocanebi
1. cxrilSi mocemulia 1033 axalwveulis astigmatizmis doneTa
sixSiruli ganawileba:
Aastigmatizmis doneebi (diopterebi) sixSireebi
0.0 an 0.2-ze naklebi 458
40
0.2 0.3 268
0.4 0.5 151
0.6 1.0 79
1.1 2.0 44
2.1 - 3.0 19
3.1 - 4.0 9
4.1 5.0 3
5.1 6.0 2
X = 1033
1.1.AaageT histograma da poligoni;
1.2. gamoTvaleT SerCeviTi (dajgufebuli) saSualo da standartuli
gadaxra.
2. cxrilSi mocemulia avadmyofTa qolesterinis sidideebi die-
tamde da dietis Semdeg.
Mmonacemi dietis win dietis Semdeg sxvaoba
1 195 146 49
2 145 155 -10
3 205 178 27
4 159 146 13
5 244 208 36
6 166 147 19
7 250 202 48
8 236 215 21
9 192 184 8
10 224 208 16
11 238 206 32
12 197 169 28
13 169 182 -13
14 158 127 31
15 151 149 2
16 197 178 19
17 180 161 19
18 222 187 35
19 168 176 -8
20 168 145 23
21 167 154 13
22 161 153 8
23 178 137 41
24 137 125 12
2.1. gamoTvaleT qolesterinis saSualo cvlileba;
2.2. gamoTvaleT qolesterinis cvlilebis saSualo standartuli gad-
axra;
41
2.3. gamoTvaleT cvlilebis SerCeviTi mediana;
2.4. simetrulia Tu ara qolesterinis cvlileba?
2.5. zogierTi mkvlevaris azriT, dietis efeqturoba ufro cxadia ma-
Rali qolesterinis mqone pacientebs Soris, vidre dabali qolesteri-
nis Semcvelobis pacientebisaTvis. SegiZliaT Tu ara raimes Tqma amis
Sesaxeb, Tuki monacemebs dayofT medianaze maRal da dabal monacemeb-
ad?
3. imis dasadgenad, moqmedebs Tu ara adamianis mdgomareoba wnev-
aze, Caatares Semdegi eqsperimenti: gauzomes sisxlisa da gulis wne-
va 25 adamians rogorc mwoliare mdgomareobaSi, ise fexze mdgomebs
gaSlili mklavebiT. monacemebi warmodgenilia cxrilSi (orive SemTxv-
evaSi pirveli Seesabameba sisxlis, xolo meore gulis wnevas):
sisxlis wneva (mm vwy.sv.)
monacemi mwoliare mdgomareobaSi Fmdgar mdgomareobaSi
1 99 71 105 79
2 126 74 124 76
3 108 72 102 68
4 122 68 114 72
5 104 64 96 62
6 108 60 96 56
7 116 70 106 70
8 106 74 106 76
9 118 82 120 90
10 92 58 88 60
11 110 78 102 80
12 138 80 124 76
13 120 70 118 84
14 142 88 136 90
15 118 58 92 58
16 134 76 126 68
17 118 72 108 68
18 126 78 114 76
19 108 78 94 70
20 136 86 144 88
21 110 78 100 64
22 120 74 106 70
23 108 74 94 74
24 132 92 128 88
25 102 68 96 64
3.1. gamoTvaleT sxvadasxva mdgomareobaSi gulisa da sisxlis wnevebis
sxvaobaTa SerCeviTi saSualoebi da standartuli gadaxrebi.
42
4. stefanos kunZulebidan Camotanili Sphenodou punctatus-s kve-
rcxebi moTavses sam inkubatorSi, romlebSic Sesabamisad iyo 18, 21 da
22 gradus celsiusis toli mudmivi temperatura. cxrilSi moyvani-
lia gamoCekili wiwilebis wonebi:
inkubatori # wiwilebis wona
I 80 82 81 82 73 85 81 83 80 82
II 91 84 83 90 83 89 85 82 84 87
III 81 83 84 87 76 84 88 83 91 84
4.1. aageT foTlebiani Reroebis msgavsi sami diagrama da SeadareT er-
TmaneTs;
4.2. axdens Tu ara inkubatoris temperatura gavlenas wiwilebis won-
ebze?
4.3. gamoTvaleT da SeadareT erTmaneTs SerCeviTi maxasiaTeblebi.
5. Rostkovia magelanica xarobs mxolod centralur otagoSi da
takaCeSi. cxrilSi moyvanilia am mcenareebis foTlebis sigrZeebi mxar-
eebis mixedviT:
12.7 14.4 13.0 12.6 12.8 13.3 12.4 13.5 13.4 14.3 otago
14.3 13.9 13.2 13.3 12.7 12.9 13.7 12.9 13.7
12.6 12.7 13.6 13.1 12.3 12.8 11.5 12.3 13.0 12.5 takaCe
12.7 13.3 12.5 13.1
5.1. aageT foTlebiani Reroebis msgavsi ori diagrama. gamoiyeneT erTi-
daigive Rero, pirveli simravlis ricxvebis foTlebi moaTavseT Rero-
dan marcxniv, meore simravlis ricxvebis foTlebi ki marjvniv.
5.2. gansxvavdebian Tu ara es simravleebi erTmaneTisagan?
5.3. SeadareT erTmaneTs am monacemebis saSualoebi, medianebi da stan-
dartuli gadaxrebi.
6. qvemoT moyvanilia mdinare viaraus napiris 30 kvadratul me-
trian ubanze Pimelia concinna-s buCqebis raodenobebi:
buCqebis
raodenoba
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-
24
25-
29
30-35 sul
ubnebis
raodenoba
8 5 6 4 3 3 1 30
6.1. saSualod ramdeni buCqia ubanze?
6.2. aageT poligoni;
6.3. SeafaseT am monacemebis cvalebadoba;
6.4. Tu Tqveni mizania es monacemebi SeadaroT sxva mdinaris napiris
52 ubanze gazrdili buCqebis raodenobas, ra ufro ukeTesia aagoT:
sixSireTa poligoni, Tu fardobiT sixSireTa poligoni? axseniT Tqve-
ni pasuxi.
7. botanikosma daTvala yoveli darguli 12 xidan ramdeni gax-
ma:
43
gamxmari xeebis
raodenoba
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
sixSire 7 15 20 11 6 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
7.1. sul ramdeni xe daaTvaliera botanikosma?
7.2. saSualos 12-dan ramdeni xe gaxma?
8. 20-ma studentma Sualedur gamocdaze miiRo Semdegi Sefaseb-
ebi:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
8 7 19 18 10 11 18 17 17 13
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
14 18 15 16 14 16 11 20 18 20
ganmarteT qvemoT CamoTvlili cnebebi da gamoTvaleT: variaciuli
mwkrivi, moda, mediana, sixSire, dagrovili sixSire, procenti, dagr-
ovili procenti, saSualo, dispersia, saSualo kvadratuli gadaxra,
dispersiis Sefaseba, saSualo kvadratuli gadaxris Sefaseba, ricxv
16-is rangi, misi procentuli rangi, mesame kvartili, meoTxe decili,
45 procentili, variaciis koeficienti.
9. wina amocanis monacemebi daajgufeT 5 intervalad. aageT his-
tograma, poligoni, daadgineT aris Tu ara mocemuli ganawileba unim-
odalri.
10. wamlis moqmedebis efeqturobis Sesamowmeblad Catarda 20
cda ( X wamlis dozaa, xolo Y avadmyofobis maxasiaTebeli):
X
8 6 5 1 0 2 4 3 8 10
Y
13 15 16 21 23 19 17 17 14 12
X
9 9 5 1 3 2 6 4 8 5
Y
13 12 18 20 18 17 14 16 13 18
aageT gabnevis diagrama, ipoveT korelaciis koeficienti, misi saSual-
ebiT daadgineT rogor kavSirSi imyofebian es cvladebi. SeadgineT re-
gresiis wrfe da misi saSualebiT gaakeTeT prognozi: risi toli iq-
neba avadmyofobis maxasiaTebeli Tu wamlis doza iqneba 7-s toli.
11. leqciebze aqtiurobasa da sagnis warmatebiT aTvisebis Sesam-
owmeblad Catarda 20 cda ( X aqtiurobaa, xolo Y warmatebuleba):
X
2 16 18 10 8 6 9 13 15 12
Y
4 17 17 11 7 5 11 12 13 13
X
17 16 6 4 11 14 9 17 14 12
Y
16 17 4 5 10 12 11 15 15 13
44
aageT gabnevis diagrama, ipoveT korelaciis koeficienti, misi saSuaeb-
iT daadgineT rogor kavSirSi imyofebian es cvladebi. SeadgineT regr-
esiis wrfe da misi saSualebiT gaakeTeT prognozi: risi toli iqneba
warmatebuleba Tu aqtivoba iqneba 20-s toli.
II. albaTobis Teoria
l e q c i a 3.
Tavi 4. albaTobis Teoriis elementebi.
4.1. SemTxveviTi eqsperimenti, albaTuri sivrce, xdomiloba,
SemTxveviTi sidide.
cdas (eqsperiments), romlis Sedegis winaswar calsaxad gansaz-
Rvra SeuZlebelia, albaTobis TeoriaSi SemTxveviT eqsperiments uwod-
eben. SemTxveviT eqsperimentTan dakavSirebul nebismier faqts, an mov-
lenas SemTxveviTi xdomiloba an ubralod, xdomiloba ewodeba. magal-
iTad, ra SeiZleba iTqvas SemTxveviT arCeul ojaxSi bavSvebis raoden-
obaze? SeiZleba Tu ara winaswar calsaxad imis Tqma, rom am ojaxSi
ori bavSvia? albaT, ara. ase, rom faqti imis Sesaxeb, rom SemTxveviT
arCeul ojaxSi iqneba ori bavSvi warmoadgens xdomilobas, dakavSireb-
uls SemTxveviT sididesTan (SemTxveviT arCeul) ojaxSi bavSvTa ra-
odenobasTan, xolo SemTxveviT eqsperiments am SemTxvevaSi warmoadg-
ens dakvirveba am sidideze.
imis Tqma, rom Catarda SemTxveviTi eqsperimenti, gulisxmobs,
rom Cven principulad SegviZlia am eqsperimentis yvela SesaZlo Sede-
gze laparaki. amitom albaTobis TeoriaSi ama Tu im eqsperimentis yve-
la SesaZlo Sedegi ganixileba rogorc eqsperimentis calkeul SesaZ-
lo SedegTa erToblioba, rasac maTematikaSi simravles eZaxian. am sim-
ravles, Sesabamis eqsperimentTan dakavSirebul albaTur sivrces uwo-
deben, xolo mis calkeul elements elementarul xdomilobas. alb-
aTuri sivrce berZnuli didi omega O asoTi aRiniSneba, xolo ele-
mentaruli xdomilobebi ki patara omega e asoTi. is faqti, rom Ca-
tarda SemTxveviTi eqsperimenti, mokled ase gamoiTqmeba: mocemulia
albaTuri sivrce O = {e
1
, e
2
, e
3
, . . .}.
SevniSnoT, rom albaTuri sivrcis elementTa raodenoba SeiZle-
ba iyos sasrulic da usasruloc. sasrul elementian albaTur sivrc-
eze ityvian, rom is diskretulia, xolo elementTa usasrulo raode-
nobis SemTxvevaSi, albaTuri sivrce SeiZleba iyos diskretulic da
45
uwyvetic (gavixsenoT ricxviTi monacemebis tipebi). Tu laparakia gar-
kveuli movlenis moxdenaTa raodenobaze, maSin laparakoben diskret-
ul albaTur sivrceze, xolo Tu eqsperimentSi laparakia raime sidi-
dis gazomvaze, romelsac SeuZlia mniSvnelobebis miReba uwyvet skala-
ze (dro, sigrZe, wona, sisxlis wneva da a.S.), maSin Sesabamis albaTur
sivrcesac uwyvets uwodeben.
xdomilobebi, romlebic gansazRvris Tanaxmad, albaTur sivrces-
Tan dakavSirebul faqtebs an movlenebs vuwodeT, faqtiurad, maTemat-
ikuri terminologiiT rom vTqvaT, albaTuri sivrcis nawilebs, anu
qvesimravleebs warmoadgenen da maT didi laTinuri asoebiT aRniSnaven.
magaliTad, xdomiloba SemTxveviT arCeul ojaxSi ori bavSvia, mokl-
ed ase SegviZlia CavweroT: E = {X = 2}, sadac X SemTxveviTi sidide
aRniSnavs bavSvTa raodenobas SemTxveviT amorCeul ojaxSi. aseve, xdo-
miloba SemTxveviT amorCeuli avadmyofis sistoluri wneva naklebia
130.5 mm vwy.sv.-ze SegviZlia ase CavweroT: E = {Y < 130.5}, sadac Y
SemTxveviTi sidide aRniSnavs SemTxveviT amorCeuli avadmyofis sisto-
luri wnevis sidides da a.S.
4.2. moqmedebebi xdomilobebze.
or E
1
da E
2
xdomilobas uTavsebadi (an urTierTgamomricxavi)
ewodeba, Tu SeuZlebelia maTi erTdroulad moxdena, anu maTematikur-
ad rom vTqvaT, E
1
da E
2
xdomilobebi, rogorc obieqtebis raRac simr-
avleebi, ar Seicavs arc erT saerTo obieqts. am faqts mokled ase
weren: E
1
E
2
= C, sadac C aris SeuZlebeli xdomilobis (anu iseTi
xdomilobis, romelic arcerT elementarul xdomilobas ar Seicavs)
simboluri aRniSvna. magaliTad, SeuZlebelia erTdroulad erTidaimave
avadmyofis sistoluri wneva naklebi iyos 130.5 mm vwy.sv.-ze da meti
iyos 154.5 mm vwy.sv.-ze, anu
{Y s 130.5}{Y > 154.5}= C.
TanakveTis simboloTi aRniSnulia xdomilobaTa erTdroulad
moxdenis faqti. roca laparakia ori (an meti) xdomilobidan erTi ma-
inc xdomilobis moxdenaze, am faqts gaerTianebis simboloTi aRniS-
naven.
magaliTad, xdomiloba SemTxveviT arCeul ojaxSi erTi an ori
bavSvia, Caiwereba ase: {X = 1}{X = 2}.
SevniSnoT, rom xdomilobaTa gaerTianeba (erTis mainc moxdena)
ar gamoricxavs maT TanakveTas, am dros SesaZlebelia orives erTdro-
ulad moxdenac. magaliTad, xdomilobebis A = {avadmyofis sistoluri
wneva naklebia 130.5 mm vwy.sv.-s} da B = {avadmyofis sistoluri wneva
meti an tolia 106.5 mm vwy.sv.-ze da naklebia 154.5 mm vwy.sv.-ze} gaer-
Tianeba, niSnavs xdomilobis C = {avadmyofis sistoluri wneva nakle-
46
bia 154.5 mm vwy.sv.-s} ganxorcielebas, romelic Seicavs mocemuli ori
xdomilobis TanakveTasac D = {avadmyofis sistoluri wneva meti an
tolia 106.5 mm vwy.sv.-ze da naklebia 154.5 mm vwy.sv.-ze}, anu:
AB ={Y < 130.5}{106.5 s Y < 154.5}={Y < 154.5}= C D =
={106.5 s Y < 130.5}={Y < 130.5}{106.5 s Y < 154.5}= AB.
simbolos, romelic Cven aq gamoviyeneT, (c), e.w. CarTvis sim-
bolos uwodeben da is gamoiyeneba imis saCveneblad, Tu romeli xdom-
ilobaa romlis nawili anu qvesimravle. Cvens SemTxvevaSi, D =
{106.5sY<130.5} xdomiloba nawilia C={Y<154.5} xdomilobisa, anu
{106.5sY<130.5}c{Y<154.5}. gavixsenoT, rom sazogadod, nebismieri E
xdomiloba warmoadgens O-s qvesimravles, anu E c O.
SemoviRoT E xdomilobis damatebiTi xdomilobis (sawinaaRmdego
xdomilobis) cnebac. Tu eqsperimentis Sedegad ar moxda sasurveli E
xdomiloba, maSin amboben, rom momxdara misi damatebiTi E
C
xdomiloba.
urTierTdamatebiT xdomilobebs is Tviseba aqvs, rom
E E
C
= C da E E
C
= O.
xSirad xdomilobebis gaerTianebas xdomilobaTa jams uwodeben
da weren E
1
+ E
2
-s , E
1
E
2
-is nacvlad, anu E
1
E
2
= E
1
+ E
2
.
aseve, xdomilobaTa TanakveTis nacvlad xSirad ixmareba xdomi-
lobaTa namravli da weren E
1
E
2
= E
1
E
2
.
xdomilobaTa SekrebasTan erTad SeiZleba visaubroT xdomilob-
aTa sxvaobazec. ori E
1
da E
2
xdomilobis sxvaoba ewodeba xdomilobas,
romelic gulisxmobs pirveli xdomilobis moxdenasa da meoris ar mo-
xdenas erTdroulad, anu
E
1
\ E
2
= E
1
E
2
C
= E
1
E
2
C
.
SevniSnoT, rom O \ E = O E
C
= E
C
, anu E xdomilobis damatebi-
Ti xdomiloba SegveZlo gangvesazRvra, rogorc O da E xdomilobebis
sxvaoba: E
C
= O \ E. aqedan kerZod davaskvniT, rom O
C
= O \ O = C da C
C
= O. ukanaskneli toloba gveubneba, rom SeuZlebeli xdomilobis sawi-
naaRmdego (damatebiT) xdomilobas warmoadgens albaTuri sivrce da
aqedan gamomdinare, rogorc xdomilobas, mas aucilebel xdomilobas
uwodeben.
CamovTvaloT zemoT Semotanili xdomilobaTa operaciebis Tvis-
ebebi, romlebic dagvWirdeba momavalSi:
1) E
1
E
2
c E
1
da E
1
E
2
c E
2
;
2) E
1
E
2
E
1
da E
1
E
2
E
2
;
3) ( E
C
)
C
= E;
4) E
1
C
E
2
C
= (E
1
E
2
)
C
;
5) E
1
C
E
2
C
= (E
1
E
2
)
C
;
47
6) E
1
\ E
2
= E
1
\ (E
1
E
2
);
7) E
1
E
2
= (E
1
\ E
2
) + (E
1
E
2
) + (E
2
\ E
1
)
8) (E
1
E
2
) E
3
= (E
1
E
3
) (E
2
E
3
);
9) (E
1
E
2
) E
3
= (E
1
E
3
) (E
2
E
3
).
moxerxebulia operaciebi xdomilobebze warmodgenili iqnas di-
agramebis, e.w. venis diagramebis saxiT.
4.3. xdomilobis albaToba, albaTobaTa Tvisebebi.
ama Tu im xdomilobis albaToba ewodeba am xdomilobis fardo-
biT sixSires cdebis usasrulod didi raodenobis dros.
sinamdvileSi, cxadia, rom veravin Caatarebs usasrulo raoden-
obis dakvirvebebs ama Tu im movlenaze. amitom, rogorc wesi, xdomil-
obis albaTobad iReben mis Sefasebas xdomilobis fardobiT sixSir-
es cdebis sakmarisad didi raodenobisas. xSir SemTxvevaSi ki, iqcevian
ase: elementarul (an raime martivi tipis) xdomilobebs garkveuli
mosazrebebis (vTqvaT, simetrulobis) gamo miaweren garkveul mniSvne-
lobebs da maTi saSualebiT iTvlian SedarebiT rTul xdomilobaTa
albaTobebs.
magaliTi 4.1. cxrilSi moyvanilia aSS-Si Catarebuli gamokvlev-
is Sedegebi axalSobilTa sqesis Sesaxeb:
kalendaruli
dro
dabadebuli
biWebis raod.
axalSobilTa
saerTo raod.
fardobiTi sixSire
1965 1 927 054 3 760 358 0.51247
48
1965-1969 9 219 202 17 989 361 0.51248
1965-1974 17 857 857 34 832 051 0.51268
albaT Znelia, am monacemebis mixedviT, eWvis Setana imaSi, rom
xdomilobis aSS-Si axalSobili iqneba biWi albaToba (measedamde si-
zustiT) tolia 0.51-isa (da ara 0.50-isa, rogorc es bevrs SeiZleba
moeCvenos simetrulobis gamo).
CamovayaliboT xdomilobaTa albaTobebis zogierTi ZiriTadi
Tviseba. daviwyoT imiT, rom rogorc fardobiT sixSireTa (anu [0,1] in-
tervalSi moqceul sidideTa) zRvruli SemTxveva, nebismieri xdomil-
obis albaTobac moTavsebulia amave intervalSi, anu nebismieri E xdo-
milobisaTvis: 0 s P(E) s 1, sadac P(E) aRniSnavs E xdomilobis albaTo-
bas.
cxadia, rom SeuZlebeli xdomilobis fardobiTi sixSire nulis
tolia cdaTa nebismieri raodenobis dros. ase, rom P{C}=0. aucilebe-
li xdomiloba yovel eqsperimentSi xorcieldeba, anu misi fardobiTi
sixSire cdebis nebismieri raodenobisaTvis 1-is tolia da maSasadame,
P{O } = 1.
davuSvaT, rom E
1
c E
2
, anu E
1
nawilia E
2
xdomilobis (am SemTxv-
evaSi amboben, rom E
1
iwvevs E
2
-s). vTqvaT, n cdaSi maTi moxdenaTa rao-
denobebia Sesabamisad n(E
1
) da n(E
2
). maSin cxadia, rom n(E
1
) s n(E
2
).
Sesabamisad, n(E
1
)/n s n(E
2
)/n, anu maTi fardobiTi sixSireebic akmayofi-
lebs imave utolobas f
n
(E
1
) s f
n
(E
2
) da maSasadame,
P(E
1
) s P(E
2
), roca E
1
c E
2
.
am SemTxvevaSi amboben, rom albaTobas aqvs zrdadobis Tviseba.
davuSvaT axla, rom yovel cdaSi SeuZlebelia E
1
da E
2
xdomil-
obis erTdroulad moxdena, anu E
1
da E
2
xdomilobebi uTavsebadia. maS-
in cxadia, rom n cdaSi maTi jamuri xdomilobis moxdenaTa raodenoba
tolia calkeuli xdomilobis moxdenaTa raodenobebis jamisa, anu
n(E
1
+E
2
)= n(E
1
) + n(E
2
). amitom maTi fardobiTi sixSireebi akmayofilebs
pirobas:
f
n
(E
1
+ E
2
) = n(E
1
+ E
2
)/n = (n(E
1
) + n(E
2
))/n =
=n(E
1
)/n + n(E
2
)/n = f
n
(E
1
) + f
n
(E
2
),
anu jamuri xdomilobis fardobiTi sixSire Sesakreb xdomilobaTa fa-
rdobiTi sixSireebis jamis tolia. radgan es Tanafardoba sworia neb-
ismierad didi n-saTvis, is sworia iqneba zRvruli SemTxvevisTvisac,
anu albaTobebisaTvisac da Cven vRebulobT e.w. albaTobaTa Sekrebis
wess: Tu E
1
da E
2
xdomilobebi uTavsebadia, maSin:
P(E
1
+ E
2
) = P(E
1
) + P(E
2
). (4.1)
unda iTqvas, rom Cvens mier danaxuli es umartivesi Tvisebebi
warmoadgens albaTobis Teoriis aqsiomatur safuZvels, anu yvela sxva
49
Tviseba maTgan gamomdinareobs. maTi saSualebiT qvemoT Cven gamoviyvanT
albaTobaTa sxva Tvisebebs, romlebic Cven momavalSi dagvWirdeba.
albaTobaTa Sekrebis (4.1) wesidan Tavis mxriv gamomdinareobs
albaTobaTa gamoklebis wesi:
Tu raime A xdomiloba iwvevs B xdomilobas, anu A c B, maSin
P(B \ A) = P(B) - P(A), (4.2)
xolo nebismieri E
1
da E
2
xdomilobisaTvis
P(E
1
\ E
2
) = P(E
1
) - P(E
1
E
2
). (4.3)
ukanaskneli toloba gamomdinareobs xdomilobaTa me-6 da pirveli
Tvisebebidan.
SevniSnoT, rom induqciiT advilad davrwmundebiT, rom xdomil-
obaTa Sekrebis wesi samarTliania ara mxolod ori uTavsebadi xdomi-
lobisaTvis, aramed, wyvilwyvilad uTavsebad xdomilobaTa nebismieri
sasruli raodenobisaTvis, anu
Tu E
i
E
j
= C , nebismieri i = j-saTvis, i , j = 1,2,, k, maSin
P(E
1
+ E
2
+ + E
k
) = P(E
1
) + P(E
2
) + + P(E
k
). (4.4)
albaTobaTa Sekrebis am wess albaTobaTa Sekrebis ganzogadeb-
uli wesi ewodeba.
sailustraciod gavixsenoT 2.3 magaliTi. CavTvaloT xdomilob-
aTa fardobiTi sixSireebi albaTobebad da gamovTvaloT albaToba imi-
sa, rom avadmyofis sistoluri wneva naklebia 154.5 mm vwy.sv.-ze, anu
Cvens aRniSvnebSi, C = {Y < 154.5}. es xdomiloba SegviZlia CavweroT
eqvsi wyvil-wyvilad uTavsebadi xdomilobis jamis saxiT:
{Y<154.5}={82.5 s Y < 94.5}+{94.5 s Y <106.5}+{106.5 s Y <118.5}+
+{118.5 s Y < 130.5}+{130.5 s Y <142.5}+{142.5 s Y <154.5}.
amitom
P{C}=P{Y <154.5} = 6/120+20/120+17/120+30/120 +25/120+13/120 =
=111/120.
xdomilobaTa Sekrebisa da nebismier xdomilobaTa albaTobebis
gamoklebis wesiT me-7 Tvisebidan SeiZleba gamoviyvanoT xdomilobaTa
Sekrebis wesi nebismieri ori xdomilobisaTvis. marTlac,
P(E
1
E
2
) = P(E
1
\ E
2
) + P(E
1
E
2
) + P(E
2
\ E
1
) =
= P(E
1
) - P(E
1
E
2
) + P(E
1
E
2
) + P(E
2
) - P(E
1
E
2
) = P(E
1
) + P(E
2
) - P(E
1
E
2
),
anu sabolood, albaTobaTa Sekrebis wesi nebismieri ori xdomilob-
isaTvis SemdegSi mdgomareobs:
nebismieri ori xdomilobis jamis albaToba tolia am xdomil-
obaTa albaTobebis jams gamoklebuli maTi TanakveTis (saerTo nawil-
is) albaToba, anu
P(E
1
E
2
) = P(E
1
) + P(E
2
) - P(E
1
E
2
). (4.5)
sailustraciod gavixsenoT avadmyofebis sistoluri wnevis 2.3
magaliTi. rogorc zemoT vnaxeT, P{C}=P{Y<154.5}=111/120. (4.5) form-
uliT igive albaToba SegviZlia gamovTvaloT ase:
50
P{C}= P{Y < 154.5} = P{{Y <130.5}{106.5<Y s154.5}}= P{Y s 130.5}+
+P{106.5 s Y <154.5}- P{{Y s 130.5}{106.5 <Y s 154.5}}= P{Y s 130.5}+
+ P{106.5 s Y <154.5}- P{106.5 s Y < 130.5}= 73/120+85/120-47/120
=111/120.
4.4. pirobiTi albaToba. albaTobaTa gamravlebis wesi.
xdomilobaTa damoukidebloba.
A xdomilobis pirobiTi albaToba im pirobiT, rom moxda B
xdomiloba, P{A | B} simboloTi aRniSneba da ase gansazRvreba:
P{A | B}= P{AB}/ P{B}, (4.6)
anu A xdomilobis pirobiTi albaTobis gamosaTvlelad im pirobiT,
rom moxda B xdomiloba, saWiroa A xdomilobis im nawilis albaTo-
bis Sefardeba B xdomilobis albaTobasTan, romelic B xdomilobaSi
Sedis.
gadavweroT (4.6) formula Semdegi saxiT:
P{AB} = P{A | B} P{B}. (4.7)
(4.7) formuliT gamosaxul tolobas albaTobaTa gamravlebis
wesi ewodeba.
gavixsenoT 2.2 magaliTi. CavTvaloT miRebuli fardobiTi sixSi-
reebi albaTobebad da gamovTvaloT pirobiTi albaToba imisa, rom
ojaxSi ori bavSvia (aRvniSnoT es xdomiloba A-Ti) im pirobiT, rom
ojaxSi erTi mainc bavSvia (aRvniSnoT es xdomiloba B-Ti). gavixsen-
oT, rom orbavSviani ojaxebis raodenoba iyo 23, xolo im ojaxebis
raodenoba, romelSic erTi mainc bavSvia, tolia 87-15=72, anu ojaxeb-
is saerTo raodenobas gamoklebuli ubavSvo ojaxebis raodenoba. rad-
gan am SemTxvevaSi AB = A, amitom (4.6) formulis Tanaxmad, miviRebT:
P{A | B}= P{AB}/ P{B}= P{A}/ P{B} = (23/87)/(72/87) = 23/72.
analogiurad, gavixsenoT, rom avadmyofTa sistoluri wnevis
Sesaxeb magaliTSi A-Ti aRniSnuli iyo xdomiloba: avadmyofis sist-
oluri wneva ar aRemateba 130.5 mm vwy.sv.-s, xolo B-Ti ki xdomilo-
ba: avadmyofis sistoluri wneva moTavsebulia 106.5-sa da 154.5 mm
vwy.sv.-s Soris. amitom (4.6) formulis mixedviT, gveqneba:
P{A | B}= P{AB}/ P{B}= P{106.5 s Y < 130.5}/ P{106.5 s Y < 154.5}=
=(47/120)/(85/120) = 47/85.
SevniSnoT, rom ukanasknel SemTxvevaSi AB = A, gansxvavebiT wina
SemTxvevisagan. SevadaroT A xdomilobis pirobiTi albaTobebi Sesabam-
is upirobo albaTobebs orive magaliTisaTvis. rogorc vnaxeT, pirvel
SemTxvevaSi, P{A|B} = 23/72, xolo A xdomilobis upirobo albaTobaa
P{A} = 23/87, anu Cven vxedavT, rom P{A | B}> P{A};
meore SemTxvevaSi, P{A|B}=47/85 da P{A}=P{Ys120}=73/120 da
maSasadame, P{A|B}<P{A}. sabolood, erTi magaliTisaTvis gvaqvs, rom
51
P{A|B}> P{A}, meoresTvis ki, piriqiT, P{A|B}<P{A}. aqedan gasagebia,
rom principSi albaT, SesaZlebelia iseTi ori xdomilobis mofiqrebac
(garkveuli eqsperimentis dros), rom adgili eqnes tolobas: P{A|B}=
=P{A}. SevniSnoT, rom aseT SemTxvevaSi, P{AB} = P{A} P{B} da
P{A|B
C
}= P{AB
C
}/P{B
C
}= (P{A}-P{AB})/(1-P{B})=P{A}(1-P{B})/(1-P{B})
= P{A}, anu sabolood,
P{A|B}= P{A|B
C
}= P{A}. (4.8)
(4.8) formula niSnavs, rom: A xdomilobis albaToba araa dam-
okidebuli imaze, moxda Tu ara B xdomiloba.
aseT SemTxvevaSi bunebrivia, amboben, rom A xdomiloba albaTur-
ad damoukidebelia, an ubralod, damoukidebelia B xdomilobisagan.
(4.7) Tanafardobidan gamomdinareobs albaTobaTa gamravlebis
wesi damoukidebeli xdomilobebisaTvis:
P{AB} = P{A} P{B}. (4.9)
(4.9) formulis simetrulobis gamo davaskvniT, rom Tu A xdomiloba
damoukidebelia B xdomilobisagan, maSin B xdomilobac damoukidebe-
lia A xdomilobisagan.
SevniSnoT, rom albaTobaTa Sekrebis ganzogadebuli wesis msgav-
sad, SesaZlebelia albaTobaTa namravlis wesis Semdegi ganzogadeba:
P{E
1
E
2
E
k
}=P{E
1
}P{ E
2
| E
1
}P{ E
k
| E
1
E
2
E
k-1
}.
amocana. davuSvaT, rom Sesamowmebeli jgufis 1% avadmyofia,
xolo danarCeni 99% ki janmrTelia. adamianebis SerCeva xdeba SemTxv-
eviT da amitom
( ) 1% 0.01 P = = avadmyofi da ( ) 99% 0.99 P = = janmrTeli .
vigulisxmoT, rom im SemTxvevaSi, roca testireba utardeba adamians,
romelsac ara aqvs avadmyofoba, maSin 1%-ia albaToba imisa, rom mivi-
RoT mcdari dadebiTi Sedegi, e.i.
% 1 ) ( = janmrTeli | dadebiTi P da
% 99 ) ( = janmrTeli | uaryofiTi P .
dabolos, davuSvaT, rom im SemTxvevaSi, roca testireba utardeba ava-
dmyof adamians, maSin 1%-ia albaToba imisa, rom miviRoT mcdari uar-
yofiTi Sedegi, e.i.
% 1 ) ( = avadmyofi | uaryofiTi P da % 99 ) ( = avadmyofi | dadebiTi P .
gamoTvaleT albaToba imisa, rom: a). adamiani janmrTelia, xolo test-
ma aCvena uaryofiTi Sedegi; b). adamiani avadmyofia, xolo testma aCve-
na dadebiTi Sedegi; g). adamiani janmrTelia, xolo testma aCvena dad-
ebiTi Sedegi; g). adamiani avadmyofia, xolo testma aCvena uaryofiTi
Sedegi.
ganvixiloT realuri situacia, romelic gviCvenebs erTi Sexed-
viT moulodnel gansxvavebas ) | ( B A P da ) | ( A B P pirobiT albaTob-
52
ebs Soris. imisaTvis, rom gamovavlinoT seriozuli avadmyofobis mqo-
ne adamianebi adreul stadiaze, xdeba adamianebis didi jgufis testi-
reba. miuxedavad winaswari Semowmebis sargeblobisa, am midgomas gaaC-
nia uaryofiTi mxare: Tu adamians sinamdvileSi ar gaaCnia avadmyofoba
da sawyisma testma aCvena dadebiTi Sedegi (daudgina avadmyofoba), is
iqneba stresul mdgomareobaSi (rac Tavis mxriv uaryofiTad moqmedebs
mis cxovrebaze) sanam ufro warmatebuli testi ar aCvenebs, rom is
janmrTelia. am problemis mniSvneloba SesaZlebelia kargad gavigoT
pirobiTi albaTobebis terminebSi.
zemoT moyvanili amocanis pirobebSi gamovTvaloT albaToba imi-
sa, rom testi aCvenebs dadebiT Sedegs. sruli albaTobis formulis
Tanaxmad:
( ) ( ) ( ) P P P = + dadebiTi janmrTeli dadebiTi | janmrTeli
( ) ( ) P P + = avadmyofi dadebiTi | avadmyofi
0.99 0.01 0.01 0.99 0.0198 = + = .
rogorc cnobilia, amocanis pirobebSi
% 99 ) ( = avadmyofi | dadebiTi P .
gamovTvaloT axla Sebrunebuli pirobiTi albaToba, risTvisac
visargebloT pirobiTi albaTobis ganmartebiTa da namravlis albaTob-
is formulebiT. maSin zemoT miRebuli
( ) 0.0198 1.98% P = = dadebiTi
Sedegis Tanaxmad:
=
=
(dadebiTi) P
dadebiTi avadmyofi
dadebiTi | avadmyofi
P
P
P
) (
) (
( ( ) 1% 99%
50%
1.98%
P P
= = =
avadmyofi)P dadebiTi | avadmyofi
PP1.98%
.
rogorc vxedavT, pirobiTi albaToba imisa rom testi mogvcems
dadebiT Sedegs, pirobaSi rom adamiani avadmyofia tolia 99%-is, maS-
in rodesac pirobiTi albaToba imisa rom adamiani avadmyofia, pirobaSi
rom testma mogvca dadebiTi Sedegi aris mxolod 50%. aq SerCeuli
monacemebis SemTxvevaSi ukanaskneli Sedegi SeiZleba CaiTvalos miuReb-
elad: naxevari adamianebis, romelTa testirebam aCvena dadebiTi Sede-
gi, faqtiurad aris mcdari dadebiTi.
4.5. sruli albaTobisa da baiesis formulebi.
albaTobaTa Sekrebis ganzogadebul wesSi laparaki iyo k cal
wyvil-wyvilad uTavsebad xdomilobaze anu iseT xdomilobebze, rome-
lTaTvisac E
i
E
j
= C , nebismieri i = j-saTvis, i , j = 1,2,, k. davuSv-
aT, rom garda zemoT aRniSnuli Tvisebisa, es xdomilobebi avseben
53
mTel albaTur sivrces, anu E
1
+ E
2
+ + E
k
= O. maSin xdomilobaTa
aseT sistemas xdomilobaTa srul sistemas uwodeben.
sruli albaTobis formula gamoiyeneba raime rTuli C xdomi-
lobis albaTobis gamosaTvlelad da mas Semdegi saxe aqvs:
P{C}=
=

k
i
i i
E P E C P
1
} { } | { =P{C|E
1
}P{E
1
}+P{C|E
2
}P{E
2
}+
++P{C|E
k
}P{E
k
}, (4.10)
sadac E
1
, E
2
, , E
k
warmoadgens xdomilobaTa srul sistemas.
am formulis gamoyenebis sailustraciod moviyvanoT Semdegi
magaliTi 4.2. gamokvlevebiT dadgenilia, rom 60-64ww. asakobr-
ivi jgufis adamianebisaTvis momdevno xuT weliwadSi kataraqtiT daa-
vadebis albaTobaa 0.024, 65-69ww. asakobriv jgufSi myofTaTvis
0.046, 70-75ww. asakobrivi jgufisaTvis 0.088 da 75 wels gadacile-
bulTaTvis 0.153. 5000 kacian populaciaSi, romlebic samoc wels
gadacilebuli arian, 45%-is asaki aRmoCnda 60-64ww. asakobriv inter-
valSi, 28%-isa 65-69ww. intervalSi, 20%-isa 70-74ww. interval-
Si da danarCenebi 75 wels gadacilebulni aRmoCndnen. ras udris alb-
aToba imisa, rom xuTi wlis Semdeg SemTxveviT amorCeuli pirovneba
aRmoCndeba kataraqtiT daavadebuli?
amoxsna: SemoviRoT xdomilobebi:
C = {SemTxveviT amorCeuli pirovneba kataraqtiTaa daavadebuli};
E
1
={amorCeuli pirovnebis asaki moTavsebulia 60-64ww. intervalSi};
E
2
E
3
E
4
={amorCeuli pirovnebis asaki metia 75 welze}.
radgan erTi, SemTxveviT amorCeuli pirovnebis asaki ar SeiZle-
ba moxvdes erTdroulad or TanaukveT asakobriv intervalSi, amitom
E
i
E
j
= C , nebismieri i = j-saTvis, i , j = 1,2,3,4. garda amisa, radgan
yvela pirovneba samoci wlis asaks gadacilebulia, nebismieri pirovne-
ba aucileblad moxvdeba romelime zemoT CamoTvlil asakobriv inter-
valSi; amitom E
1
+ E
2
+ E
3
+ E
4
= O, anu E
1
, E
2
, E
3
, E
4
xdomilobebi Sead-
genen xdomilobaTa srul sistemas. pirobis Tanaxmad,
P{C|E
1
}= 0.024, P{C|E
2
}= 0.046, P{C|E
3
}= 0.088, P{C|E
4
}= 0.153
da P{E
1
}= 0.45, P{E
1
}= 0.28, P{E
1
}= 0.2, P{E
1
}= 0.07. amitom (4.10)
formulis Tanaxmad miviRebT:
P{C}=
=

4
1
} { } | {
i
i i
E P E C P = 0.0240.45 + 0.0460.28 +
+0.0880.2 + 0.1530.07 = 0.052.
Sesabamisad, SegviZlia davaskvnaT, rom populaciis 5.2%, anu
260 adamiani, xuTi wlis Semdeg daavadebuli iqneba kataraqtiT.
54
davuSvaT axla, rom xuTi wlis Semdeg SemTxveviT amorCeuli
pirovneba aRmoCnda kataraqtiT daavadebuli. sainteresoa, ras udris
albaToba imisa, rom es pirovneba xuTi wlis win 60-64ww. asakobrivi
jgufis (an sxva romelime jgufis) warmomadgeneli iyo? SevniSnoT,
rom zemoT ganxilulisagan gansxvavebiT, cdis (SemTxveviT amorCeuli
pirovneba iqneba kataraqtiT daavadebuli) Sedegi cnobilia da gvainte-
resebs aseTi hipoTezis albaToba: es pirovneba xuTi wlis win 60-
64ww. asakobrivi jgufis warmomadgeneli iyo. SekiTxvis ase dasma sa-
interesoa imitom, rom SevadaroT hipoTezis aposterioruli (cdis
Semdegi) albaToba mis apriorul (cdis Catarebamde) albaTobas, rome-
lic rogorc gvaxsovs, 0.45-is tolia (anu yvelaze didia apriorul
albaTobebs Soris). amis saSualebas iZleva baiesis formula, romels-
ac Semdegi saxe aqvs:
k j
E P E C P
E P E C P
C E P
k
i
i i
j j
j
,..., 2 , 1 ,
} { } | {
} { } | {
} | {
1
=
=
. (4.11)
ganxilul magaliTSi, (4.11)-is marjvena mxareSi mdgomi gamosax-
ulebis mniSvneli rogorc vnaxeT, tolia 0.052-is. amitom
P{E
1
|C}= (0.0240.45)/0.052 ~ 0.20,
P{E
2
|C}= (0.0460.28)/0.052 ~ 0.25,
P{E
3
|C}= (0.0880.20)/0.052 ~ 0.34,
P{E
4
|C}= (0.1530.07)/0.052 ~ 0.21.
rogorc vxedavT, mas mere rac cnobilia, rom SemTxveviT amorC-
euli pirovneba daavadebulia kataraqtiT, yvelaze meti Sansia is
xuTi wlis win yofiliyo 70-74ww. asakobrivi jgufis warmomadgeneli.
amocanebi
1. ganvixiloT ojaxi, romelSic aris deda, mama da ori Svili.
SemoviRoT Semdegi xdomilobebi: E
1
= {dedas gripi aqvs}, E
2
= {mamas
gripi aqvs}, E
3
= {pirvel Svils gripi aqvs}, E
4
= {meore Svils gripi
aqvs}, B = {erT Svils mainc gripi aqvs}, C={erT mSobels mainc gripi
aqvs}, D={erTs mainc gripi aqvs ojaxSi}.
1.1. ras niSnavs xdomilobebi E
1
E
2
, E
1
E
2
;
1.2. aris Tu ara uTavsebadi xdomilobebi E
3
da E
4
?
3
B, E
3
B;
1.4. gamosaxeT C xdomiloba E
1
, E
2
, E
3
da E
4
xdomilobebis saSualebiT.
1.5 gamosaxeT D xdomiloba B da C xdomilobebis saSualebiT.
3
C
da E
4
C
?
1.7. gamosaxeT D
C
xdomiloba B da C xdomilobebis saSualebiT.
55
2. ganvixiloT ojaxebi, sadac or-ori bavSvia. rogoria albaToba
imisa, rom ojaxSi orive bavSvi vaJia Tu cnobilia, rom: a). ufrosi
bavSvi vaJia; b). erTi bavSvi mainc vaJia?
3. yuTSi moTavsebulia ori moneta:
1
A -- simetriuli moneta
gerbis mosvlis albaTobiT 1/2, da
2
A -- arasimetriuli moneta gerb-
is mosvlis albaTobiT 1/3. SemTxveviT viRebT erT monetas da vagdebT.
davuSvaT, rom movida gerbi. rogoria albaToba imisa, rom amoRebuli
moneta iyo simetriuli?
4. vTqvaT, Cven Casabarebeli gvaqvs gamocda da SegviZlia avirCi-
oT nebismieri sami gamomcdelidan. davuSvaT, CvenTvis cnobilia, rom
erTerTi sami gamomcdelidan (ucnobia romeli) -- keTilia da alba-
Toba imisa, rom masTan Caabaro gamocda tolia 0.4-is, xolo danarCeni
ori gamomcdeli avia da maTTan gamocdis Cabarebis albaToba tolia
0.1-is. Cven SemTxveviT avirCieT gamomcdeli da warmatebiT CavabareT
gamocda. rogoria labaToba imisa, rom Cven avirCieT keTili gamomc-
deli?
5. davuSvaT, rom gamomcdelTan, romelTanac warmatebiT Caiara
gamocdam (ix. amocana 4) gamosacdelad rig-rigobiT mivida kidev ori
moswavle. jer gamocda ver Caabara meore moswavlem, Semdeg mivida me-
same da manac ver Caabara gamocda. am faqtis Semdeg romeli hipoTezaa
ufro dasajerebeli: es gamomcdeli keTilia Tu avi?
6. moyvaruli sinoptikosis Teoriis Tanaxmad Tu erT wels iyo
wyaldidoba, maSin albaToba imisa, rom igi ganmeordeba momdevno wels
aris 0.7, xolo Tu erT wels ar iyo wyaldidoba, maSin albaToba imi-
sa, rom igi ar iqneba momdevno wels aris 0.6. gasul wels wyaldido-
ba ar yofila. ipoveT albaToba imisa, rom wyald-idoba iqneba: a). mom-
devno sam weliwads zedized; b). zustad erTjer momdevno sami wlis
ganmavlobaSi.
7. albaToba imisa, rom zafxulis romelime dRes baTumSi iwvim-
ebs aris 0.2. albaToba imisa, rom dRis maqsimaluri temperatura wvi-
mian dRes 25 graduss gadaaWarbebs aris 0.3, xolo Tu wvima ar aris
0.6. vipovoT albaToba imisa, rom zafxulis SemTxveviT arCeul
dRes baTumSi iwvimebs, Tu cnobilia, rom am dRis maqsimaluri temper-
atura 25 gradusze metia.
8. hipertoniiT daavadebul avadmyofebs aZleven or sxvadasxva
wamals, romlebidanac pirvelis kuWnawlavze gvrdiTi zemoqmedebis
albaTobaa 0.1, xolo meorisa 0.2. davuSvaT, rom es gverdiTi efeqt-
ebi damoukidebelia erTmaneTisagan. ras udris albaToba imisa, rom av-
admyofs eqneba ukuCveneba am wamlebis erTdroulad miRebisas?
9. qimiur qarxanaSi momuSave 500 mamakacidan, romelTa asakia
50-dan 69 wlamdea, 35%-is asakia 50-54ww. asakobriv jgufSi, 30%-isa
56
55-59ww. asakobriv jgufSi, 20% -- 60-64ww. asakobriv jgufSi da da-
narCeni - 65-69ww. asakobriv jgufSi. sikvdilianobebi am asakobrivi
jgufebisaTvis Sesabamisad Seadgens 0.9%, 1.4%, 2.2% da 3.3%-s. rog-
oria sikvdilianobis sidide am qarxanaSi?
10. axalSobili iTvleba dabalwonianad Tu misi wona ar aRema-
teba 2500 grams. garda amisa, axalSobilebi klasificirdebian kidev
fexmZimobis periodis sididiTac: 20 kviraze naklebi, 20-27 kvira, 28-
36 kvira da 36 kviraze meti. davuSvaT, rom fexmZimobis periodebis
Sesabamisi albaTobebia: 0.0004, 0.0059, 0.0855, 0.9082. cnobilia agr-
eTve dabalwonianobis Sesabamisi albaTobebi: 0.540, 0.813, 0.379 da
0.035 (magaliTad, albaToba 0.540 gviCvenebs albaTobas, imisa rom axa-
lSobili iqneba dabalwonianad, Tu fexmZimobis periodi ar aRemateba
20 kviras).
10.1. gamoTvaleT albaToba imisa, rom SemTxveviT arCeuli axalSobili
dabalwoniani iqneba;
10.2. aCveneT, rom xdomilobebi fexmZimobis periodi ar Remateba 27
kviras da SemTxveviT arCeuli axalSobili dabalwoniani iqneba ar
aris damoukidebeli.
10.3. ras udris albaToba imisa, rom fexmZimobis periodi ar aRemateba
36 kviras, Tu axalSobili dabalwoniani aRmoCnda?
11. daavadeba taxemia SeiZleba ganviTardes orsulobis dros.
taxemia ufro xSirad viTardeba diabetiT daavadebul qalebSi. cnobi-
lia, rom qalebis daaxloebiT 20%-s aqvs diabeti da am qalebis 25%-
s SeiZleba ganuviTardes taxemia. janmrTeli orsuli qalebis daaxlo-
ebiT 4.6%-Si fiqsirdeba taxemia. gamoTvaleT albaToba imisa, rom Sem-
TxveviT SerCeul orsul qals aqvs taxemia.
12. erT-erT kunZulze aRmoCenil iqna mcenare hebe-s ori saxeo-
ba: makrouta da atkinsoni . am kunZulze makrouta Seadgens hebe-s sa-
xeobis 70%-s. albaToba imisa, rom makrouta iqneba sworad identifi-
cirebuli aris 60% da, rom atkinsoni ar iqneba sworad identifici-
rebuli aris 6%. gamoTvaleT albaToba imisa, rom SemTxveviT arCeuli
hebe aris sworad identificirebuli.
13. Sizofrenia kacebs ufro xSirad emarTebaT vidre qalebs. Si-
zofreniiT daavadebis albaToba kacebSi Seadgens 0.0003-s, xolo qal-
ebSi ki 0.0002-s. garkveuli wamali kacebisaTvis ufro efeqturia (da-
debiTi efeqtis albaTobiT 0.7), vidre qalebisaTvis (aq dadebiTi efeq-
tis albaTobaa 0.4). gamoTvaleT albaToba imisa, rom SemTxveviT amor-
Ceul pacientze wamali dadebiTad imoqmedebs.
57
l e q c i a 4.
Tavi 5. diskretuli SemTxveviTi sidideebi. ZiriTadi
albaTuri ganawilebebi.
5.1. SemTxveviTi sidideebi da maTi ricxviTi maxasiaTeblebi.
wina leqciaSi Cven ukve gavecaniT SemTxveviTi sididis magaliT-
ebs: SemTxveviT arCeul ojaxSi bavSvTa raodenoba, axalSobilebis wo-
na, avadmyofTa sisxlis wneva da a. S. magram iq ar mogviyvania sazoga-
dod SemTxveviTi sididis gansazRvra. es leqcia swored SemTxveviTi
sidideebs da maTTan dakavSirebul albaTur ganawilebebs daeTmoba.
gansazRvra 5.1. SemTxveviTi sidide es aris ricxviT mniSvnelob-
ebiani sidide, romelic Rebulobs sxvadasxva ricxviT mniSvnelobebs,
Sesabamisi albaTobebiT.
ganasxvaveben SemTxveviTi sidideebis or ZiriTad tips: diskret-
ul da uwyvet SemTxveviT sidideebs.
gansazRvra 5.2. diskretulia SemTxveviTi sidide, romlis SesaZ-
lo mniSvnelobaTa simravlec diskretulia, anu sasruli an Tvladia.
es gansazRvra gulisxmobs, rom Cven SegviZlia CamovTvaloT Sem-
TxveviTi sididis yvela SesaZlo mniSvneloba. magaliTad, ojaxSi bavS-
vTa raodenoba SeiZleba iyos 0, 1, 2, 10, 11,,20 (SeiZleba metic, mag-
ram yovel SemTxvevaSi, raRac sasruli ricxvi).
sxva SemTxvevaSi, SeiZleba laparaki iyos diskretul SemTxveviT
sidideze, romelis SesaZlo mniSvnelobaTa raodenoba SeiZleba iyos
ragind didi. magaliTad, otiti (Otitis media) aris Sua yuris anTeba,
romelic Zalzed xSiria or wlamde asakis bavSvebSi da Tu X aRniSn-
avs am daavadebiT daavadebaTa SemTxvevebis raodenobas, maSin gasagebia,
rom misi SesaZlo mniSvnelobebia 0,1,2,.
rodis vityviT, rom mocemulia diskretuli X SemTxveviTi si-
dide? SemTxveviTi sididis gansazRvridan gamomdinare, amisaTvis araa
sakmarisi mxolod misi mniSvnelobebis CamoTvla, saWiroa Sesabamisi
albaTobebis codnac. sazogadod, Tu diskretuli SemTxveviTi sididis
zrdadobiT dalagebul mniSvnelobebs aRvniSnavT x
1
, x
2
, , x
n
, simbo-
loebiT, xolo Sesabamis albaTobebs p
1
, p
2
, , p
n
,simboloebiT, maSin
vityviT, rom mocemulia diskretuli X SemTxveviTi sidide, anu moce-
mulia misi ganawilebis kanoni, Tu sruldeba piroba:
p
i
>0, i >1 da 1
1
=
> i
i
p . (5.1)
diskretuli X SemTxveviTi sididis ganawilebis kanoni moxerxebulia
warmovadginoT Semdegi cxrilis saxiT:
58
cxrili 5.1.
X x
1
x
2
. . . x
n
. . .
P p
1
p
2
. . . p
n
. . .
sadac rogorc aRvniSneT, p
i
= P{X = x
i
} da 1
1
=
> i
i
p . SevniSnoT, rom
(5.1) piroba faqtiurad imas niSnavs, rom X SemTxveviTi sidides ar
SeuZlia miiRos arcerTi sxva (cxrilSi miuTiTebeli) mniSvneloba.
diskretuli SemTxveviTi sididis ganawilebis kanonis codna (anu zem-
oT moyvanili cxrilis yvela komponentis codna) savsebiT sakmarisia
imisaTvis, rom gamovTvaloT am SemTxveviT sididesTan dakavSirebuli
nebismieri A xdomilobis albaToba. magaliTad, Tu xdomiloba mdgoma-
reobs X SemTxveviTi sididis moxvedraSi raime ricxviT (a,b] saxis in-
tervalSi, anu A = {a < X s b}, maSin saWiroa SevkriboT is p
i
albaTob-
ebi, romelTa Sesabamisi x
i
mniSvnelobebic moxvdeba aRniSnul interva-
lSi. sailustraciod ganvixiloT Semdegi magaliTi.
magaliTi 5.1. medikamentebis fabrikas imedi aqvs, rom mis mier
gamogonil wnevis wamals SeuZlia wnevis regulireba. maTi gaangariSeb-
iT, SemTxveviT arCeuli yoveli oTxi avadmyofisaTvis wamlis efeqtu-
robis albaTobebi Semdegnairadaa ganawilebuli:
cxrili 5.2.
X 0 1 2 3 4
P 0.008 0.076 0.265 0.411 0.24
aq X aRniSnavs im pacientebis raodenobas (oTxidan) romlebzec
wamalma dadebiTad imoqmeda. pirvel rigSi SevamowmoT, rom es marTl-
ac albaTobaTa ganawilebis kanonia. amisaTvis SevkriboT albaTobaTa
(P) striqonSi mdgomi albaTobebi:
0.008 + 0.076 + 0.265 + 0.411 + 0.24 = 1.
magaliTisaTvis, gamovTvaloT albaToba imisa, rom wamali dade-
biTad imoqmedebs or pacientze mainc. am SemTxvevaSi saZiebeli A xdo-
miloba ase Caiwereba: A = {X >2}. amitom unda SevkriboT is p
i
albaTo-
bebi, romelTa Sesabamisi x
i
mniSvnelobebic metia an toli 2-is. Tu
gavixsenebT xdomilobaTa albaTobebis Sekrebis wess wina leqciidan,
gveqneba:
P{A} = P{X >2} = P{X = 2}+ P{X = 3}+ P{X = 4} =
=0.265 + 0.411 + 0.24 = 0.916.
Tu SevadarebT albaTobaTa ganawilebis zemoT moyvanil cxrils
Sesabamis sixSiruli ganawilebis cxrils (romelsac Cven me-2 leqcia-
Si SevxvdiT), TvalSi gvecema aSkara msgavseba: iq fardobiT sixSireTa
jami toli iyo 1-isa, aqac albaTobaTa jami 1-is tolia. meores mxriv,
xdomilobis albaToba wina leqciaSi gansazRruli iyo, rogorc amave
xdomilobis fardobiTi sixSire cdaTa grZel seriaSi. xom ar metyve-
lebs es yvelaferi imaze, rom SesaZlebelia eqsperimentulad Semowmd-
59
es fabrikis mier SemoTavazebuli albaTuri modelis siswore? es mar-
Tlac asea. amisaTvis saWiroa Catardes dakvirvebaTa sakmarisad didi
raodenoba X SemTxveviT sidideze da miRebuli fardobiTi sixSireebi
Sedardes Sesabamis albaTobebs. Sedarebis meTodebs Cven momavalSi
viswavliT, jer-jerobiT ki magaliTisaTvis, davuSvaT, rom 100 dakvir-
vebidan (SemTxveviT amorCeul oTx-oTx avadmyofze) oTxidan zustad
erT avadmyofze wamalma dadebiTad imoqmeda 9 SemTxvevaSi, zustad or
avadmyofze 24 SemTxvevaSi, zustad sam avadmyofze 48 SemTxvevaSi,
oTxiveze 18 SemTxvevaSi da mxolod erTxel moxda ise, rom wamal-
ma dadebiTad ver imoqmeda verc erTze SemTxveviT amorCeuli oTxi av-
admyofidan. SevadginoT Sesabamisi sixSiruli ganawilebis cxrili. mas
Semdegi saxe aqvs:
cxrili 5.3
avadmyofTa raodenoba 0 1 2 3 4
fardobiTi sixSire 0.01 0.09 0.24 0.48 0.18
sakiTxi sixSiruli (cxrili 5.3) da albaTuri ganawilebebis
(cxrili 5.2) Sedarebis Sesaxeb, anu statistikuri terminologiiT,
Tanxmobis sakiTxi, rogorc vTqviT, daskvniTi statistikis erT-erTi
umniSvnelovanesi sakiTxia da mas Cven momavlisaTvis gadavdebT.
axla ki mivubrundeT diskretuli SemTxveviTi sidideebis Semd-
gom daxasiaTebas.
gansazRvra 5.3. diskretuli X SemTxveviTi sididis maTematikur
lodins (mosalodnel mniSvnelobas, saSualo mniSvnelobas) uwodeben
Semdeg sidides:

> >
= = =
1 1
} {
i
i i
i
i i
p x x X P x EX . (5.2)
5.1 magaliTisaTvis gvaqvs:
EX = 00.008 + 10.076 + 20.265 + 30.411 + 40.24 = 2.8,
rac ise unda gavigoT, rom saSualod oTxidan 2.8 avadmyofze wamali
dadebiTad moqmedebs (ufro gasagebad, ki saSualod 40-dan 28 avadmyo-
fze wamali dadebiTad moqmedebs).
sainteresoa SevadaroT es sidide 5.3 cxrilidan gamoTvlil Se-
rCeviT saSualos:
=
100
x 00.01 + 10.09 + 20.24 + 30.48 + 40.18 = 2.73.
SevniSnoT, rom SemTxveviTi sididis maTematikur lodins zust-
ad igive Tvisebebi aqvs, rac ricxviT monacemTa SerCeviT saSualos:
E(c
1
X
1
c
2
X
2
) = c
1
EX
1
c
2
EX
2
, (5.3)
nebismieri X
1
da X
2
SemTxveviTi sidideebisaTvis.
gansazRvra 5.4. diskretuli X SemTxveviTi sididis dispersia
ewodeba Semdeg sidides:

> >
= = =
1
2
1
2 2
) ( } { ) (
i
i i
i
i i
p x x X P x DX o . (5.4)
60
jamis Tvisebebis gamoyenebiT, advili saCvenebelia, rom
2
1
2 2
o =
> i
i i
p x . (5.5)
ukanaskneli formula ufro moxerxebulia gamoTvlebisaTvis.
gansazRvra 5.5. diskretuli X SemTxveviTi sididis standartu-
li gadaxra ewodeba ariTmetikul kvadratul fesvs misi dispersiidan:
2
1
2
1
2
) ( o = = =

> > i
i i
i
i i
p x p x DX . (5.6)
SevniSnoT, rom SemTxveviTi sididis dispersiasac zustad igive
Tvisebebi aqvs, rac ricxviT monacemTa SerCeviT dispersias:
1) Dc = 0; 2) D(c
1
X
1
c
2
X
2
) =
2
2
2 1
2
1
DX c DX c + ,
damoukidebeli X
1
da X
2
SemTxveviTi sidideebisaTvis, anu iseTi SemTx-
veviTi sidideebisaTvis, romelTaTvisac
P{X
1
eA, X
2
eB}= P{X
1
eA} P{X
2
eB}, (5.7)
nebismieri A da B ricxviTi simravleebisaTvis.
5.1 magaliTisaTvis gvaqvs:
o
2
= 00.008 + 10.076 + 40.265 + 90.411 + 160.24 - 2.8
2
= 1.835,
saidanac 36 . 1 835 . 1 ~ = o .
SemTxveviTi sidideebis es ricxviTi maxasiaTeblebi moxerxebu-
lia imisaTvis, rom warmodgena Segviqmnan SemTxveviTi sidididis cval-
ebadobis Sesaxeb. magaliTad, bevri (magram ara yvela) SemTxveviTi si-
dide 0.95-ze meti an toli albaTobiT meryeobs intervalSi
[ - 2o; + 2o]. (5.8)
marTlac, Cveni magaliTis SemTxvevaSi, = 2.8, o = 1.36. amitom
[ - 2o; + 2o] = [2.8 - 21.36; 2.8 + 21.36] = [0.08;5.52]. 5.2 cxrilis
mixedviT, am intervalSia moTavsebuli X SemTxveviTi sididis
mniSvnelobebi 1, 2, 3 da 4 da maSasadame,
P{0.08s X s 5.52}= P{X = 1}+ P{X = 2}+ P{X = 3}+ P{X = 4}=
0.076+0.265+0.411+0.24 = 0.992 > 0.95.
5.2. diskretuli SemTxveviTi sididis ganawilebis funqcia.
gansazRvra 5.6. X SemTxveviTi sididis ganawilebis funqcia
(aRiniSneba F
X
(x) simboloTi) ganimarteba rogorc {Xsx} xdomilobis
albaToba nebismieri namdvili x-Tvis, anu
F
X
(x) = P{X s x}. (5.9)
rogorc {X s x} tipis xdomilobis albaTobas, F
X
(x) ganawilebis
funqcias aqvs Semdegi Tvisebebi:
1) 0 s F
X
(x) s 1, nebismieri x-saTvis, xe R;
2) F
X
(-) = 0, F
X
(+) =1;
3) F
X
(x) aris x cvladis araklebadi funqcia;
61
4) F
X
(x) ganawilebis funqcia uwyvetia marjvnidan.
5.1 magaliTis mixedviT gavarkvioT, Tu rogori grafiki aqvs di-
skretuli SemTxveviTi ganawilebis funqcias. cxadia, rom sanam x<0 ga-
nawilebis funqciis mniSvneloba 0-is tolia; roca 0s x<1, P{X s x}=
0.008; roca 1 s x<2, albaTobaTa Sekrebis wesis gamo, P{X s x}= 0.008 +
0.076 =0.084; analogiurad, roca 2 s x<3, P{X s x}= 0.008 + 0.076 + 0.265
= 0.349; roca 3 s x<4, P{X s x}= 0.008 + 0.076 + 0.265 +0.411 = 0.76 dabo-
los, roca x > 4, P{X s x}= 0.008 + 0.076 + 0.265 +0.411 +0.24 = 1, anu
monacemebis empiriuli ganawilebis funqciis msgavsad, F
X
(x) funqcias
aqvs uban-uban mudmivi (safexura) funqciis grafiki:
SevniSnoT, rom sazogadod diskretuli SemTxveviTi sididis ga-
nawilebis funqciisaTvis
F
X
(x
i
) = P{X s x
i
}= P{X = x
1
} + P{X = x
2
} ++ P{X = x
i
} =
= p
1
+ p
2
++ p
i
(5.10)
da amitom
p
i
= F
X
(x
i
) - F
X
(x
i -1
), yoveli i-Tvis, i > 1 (aq x
0
= 0). (5.11)
(5.10) da (5.11) Tanafardobebi gveubneba, rom diskretuli SemT-
xveviTi sididis ganawilebis kanonisa da misi ganawilebis funqciis
mocema eqvivalenturia.
5.3. gadanacvlebebi da jufdebebi.
vTqvaT, n da k raime naturaluri ricxvebia da k s n. davsvaT
aseTi SekiTxvebi: a) ramdennairad SeiZleba n elementiani simravlidan
k elementiani qvemimdevrobis amorCeva? b) ramdennairad SeiZleba n
elementiani simravlidan k elementiani qvesimravlis amorCeva?
SevniSnoT, rom SekiTxvebs Soris aris gansxvaveba: pirvel SemT-
xvevaSi laparakia qvemimdevrobebis amorCevaze, maSin roca, meore SemT-
62
xvevaSi saubaria qvesimravleebis amorCevaze. igulisxmeba, rom magali-
Tad, mimdevrobebi (1, 2, 3) da (3, 1, 2) gansxvavebuli mimdevrobebia, mag-
ram rogorc simravleebi {1, 2, 3} da {3, 1, 2} erTidaigive simravleebia.
amitom gasagebia, rom pasuxebi zemoT dasmul kiTxvebze iqneba sxvadas-
xva. pirvel SemTxvevaSi TiToeul qvemimdevrobas n elementidan k ele-
mentian gadanacvlebas uwodeben, xolo meoreSi TiToeul qvesimrav-
les n elementidan k elementian jufdebas uwodeben. SevecadoT axla
gamoviangariSoT am SesaZleblobaTa (gadanacvlebaTa da jufdebaTa) ra-
odenobebi.
daviwyoT gadanacvlebebiT. n elementiani simravlidan qvemimdev-
robis pirveli elementis arCeva SesaZlebelia zustad n gansxvavebuli
gziT (SesaZlebelia arCeul iqnas mocemuli simravlis yoveli elemen-
ti). meore nabijze ukve amorCeva xdeba darCenili (n-1)-elementiani
simravlidan; ase, rom amis gakeTeba SeiZleba mxolod n -1 gansxvavebu-
li gziT. amrigad, qvemimdevrobis pirveli ori wevris arCeva SesaZleb-
elia n(n-1) gansxvavebuli gziT. Tu gavagrZelebT msjelobas k-ur nab-
ijamde, advilad davrwmundebiT, rom n elementiani simravlidan k el-
ementiani qvemimdevrobis amorCeva SeiZleba
( 1) ( 1)
k
n
P n n n k + (5.12)
gansxvavebuli gziT.
SevniSnoT, rom (5.12) formulis mixedviT,
( 1) 2 1 !
n
n
P n n n = (5.13)
aris n elementiani simravlis elementTa yvela SesaZlo gadanacvleba-
Ta raodenoba (simbolo n! ikiTxeba: n faqtoriali da is warmoadgens 1-
dan n-mde (CaTvliT) yvela naturaluri ricxvis namravls. miRebulia,
rom 0! = 1). SevniSnoT, rom
n! = n (n -1)! = n (n -1)(n -2)! = = n (n -1) (n k +1)(n -k)!. (5.14)
(5.12) da (5.14)-dan advilad davaskvniT, rom
!/( )!
k
n
P n n k = . (5.15)
gadavideT axla jufdebaTa raodenobis gamoTvlaze. cxadia, rom
n elementiani simravlidan k elementian gadanacvlebaTa raodenoba im-
denjer metia Sesabamis jufdebaTa raodenobaze, ramdennairadac SeiZl-
eba k elementiani simravlis yvela elementis yvelanairi gadanacvleba.
es ki, rogorc vnaxeT, SesaZlebelia k! sxvadasxvanairad. amitom n el-
ementiani simravlidan k elementian jufdebaTa raodenoba (romelsac
k
n
C -Ti aRvniSnavT) gamoiTvleba Semdegi formuliT:
)! ( !
!
! k n k
n
k
P
C
k
n k
n
= = . (5.16)
cxadia, rom
k
n
C =
k n
n
C

, yoveli k-saTvis, 0 s k s n.
63
Semotanil sidideebs erTobliobaSi kombinatorikis elementebs
uwodeben. maTi gamoangariSebis sailustraciod mogvyavs ramdenime mar-
tivi savarjiSo:
4! = 1234 = 24; 5! = 5 4! = 5 24 = 120;
336 6 7 8
! 5
! 5 6 7 8
! 5
! 8
)! 3 8 (
! 8
3
8
= =

= =
= P ;
35 5 7
3 2 1
5 6 7
! 3 ! 4
! 7
)! 4 7 ( ! 4
! 7
4
7
= =

=
= C .
5.4. binomuri ganawileba.
albaTobaTa binomuri ganawileba ganawileba aqvs nebismier disk-
retul SemTxveviT sidides, romelic n damoukidebeli cdis Catarebis
dros iTvlis raime A xdomilobis moxdenaTa (warmateba-Ta) raodenob-
as da romlis moxdenis albaToba yovel cdaSi erTnairia da aris p =
= P(A). aRvniSnoT aseTi SemTxveviTi sidide S
n
(A)-Ti. maSin misi SesaZ-
lo mniSvnelobebia 0,1,2,,n, xolo Sesabamisi albaTobebi iTvleba
formuliT:
, ,
{ ( ) } ( ) ( ) (1 ) , 0,...,
n k
k
k C k k n k
n n n
P S A k C P A P A C p p k n

= = = = . (5.17)
am ganawilebis gamoyenebis sailustraciod gavarCioT Semdegi
magaliTi 5.2. cnobilia, rom biWis dabadebis albaTobaa p = 0.51.
ras udris albaToba imisa, rom 7 axalSobilidan iqneba 5 biWi, Tu
Sobadobebi damoukidebelia?
amoxsna. amocanis pirobis Tanaxmad, n = 7, k = 5 da p = P(A) = 0.51
(cxadia, aq A aRniSnavs xdomilobas imisa, rom axalSobili iqneba bi-
Wi). amitom (5.17) formulis Tanaxmad, gveqneba:
, , , , 391 . 0 49 . 0 51 . 0 21 49 . 0 51 . 0 } 5 ) ( {
2 5 2 5 5
7 7
~ = = = C A S P .
sainteresoa, Tu rogoria am ganawilebis (an rac igivea S
n
(A) Se-
mTxveviTi sididis) ricxviTi maxasiaTeblebi: maTematikuri lodini da
dispersia (standartuli gadaxra).
binomuri SemTxveviTi sididis maTematikuri lodini tolia cda-
Ta ricxvis namravlisa warmatebis P(A) albaTobaze:
E S
n
(A) = n P(A) = np. (5.18)
binomuri SemTxveviTi sididis dispersia gamoiTvleba Semdegi
formuliT:
D S
n
(A) = n P(A) (1- P(A)) = np(1- p). (5.19)
maSin gasagebia, rom Sesabamisi standartuli gadaxra tolia:
) 1 ( p np = o . (5.20)
am ganawilebis modas xSirad ualbaTes ricxvs uwodeben. is wa-
rmoadgens k-s im mniSvnelobas, romlisaTvisac (5.17) albaToba udides
64
mniSvnelobas Rebulobs. mas m
0
-iT aRniSnaven da misTvis samarTliania
Semdegi utoloba:
(n + 1) p 1 s m
0
s (n + 1) p. (5.21)
SevniSnoT, rom radgan [(n + 1) p 1 , (n + 1) p] ricxviTi inter-
valis sigrZe 1-is tolia, arsebobs erTi mainc naturaluri m
0
, rome-
lic mas ekuTvnis, anu ualbaTesi ricxvi yovelTvis arsebobs. garda
amisa, Tu (n + 1) p naturaluri ricxvia, maSin ualbaTesi ricxvi
oria, m
0
= (n + 1) p an m
0
= (n + 1) p 1 anu am SemTxvevaSi binomuri
ganawileba bimodaluria.
zogjer saWiroa (5.17) formulis magivrad gamoviyenoT misi gam-
oTvlis mimdevrobiTi, e.w. rekursiuli (rekurentuli) gadaTvlis we-
si, romelic SemdegSi mdgomareobs:
} {
) 1 )( 1 (
) (
} 1 { k S P
p k
p k n
k S P
n n
=
+

= + = . (5.22)
magaliTi 5.3. 1986 wels 60-dan 64 wlamde 100 mamakaci acril
iqna gripis sawinaaRmdego axali vaqciniT. erTi wlis Semdeg xuTi ma-
Tgani gardaicvala. niSnavs Tu ara es, rom axali vaqcina uvargisia,
Tu am asakSi myofi xuTi adamianis erT weliwadSi gardacvalebaSi
uCveulo araferia?
amis dasadgenad, sikvdilianobis cxrilebidan moZiebul iqna 60-
64 ww. asakobrivi intervalisaTvis mamakacis erT weliwadSi gardacva-
lebis albaToba, rac p = 0.02-is toli aRmoCnda. maSin (5.17)-is gamoye-
nebiT Cven SegviZlia gamovTvaloT albaToba imisa, rom gardacvlilTa
raodenoba iqneba k-s toli, nebismieri k saTvis, k = 0,1, ,100. magram
is, rac Cven gvainteresebs aris, Tu ramdenad mosalodneli iyo xuTi
an meti adamianis gardacvaleba, anu {S
n
>5} xdomilobis albaToba, rac
albaTobaTa Sekrebis wesis Tanaxmad, tolia
P{S
n
>5}=

=
=
= =
100
5
100
100
100
5
) 98 . 0 ( ) 02 . 0 ( } {
k
k k k
k
n
C k S P .
cxadia, rom gamoTvlebis gamartivebis mizniT, umjobesia {S
n
> 5} xdom-
ilobis damatebiTi {S
n
< 5} xdomilobis albaTobis gamoTvla da Semdeg
damatebiTi xdomilobis albaTobis formulis gamoyeneba:
P{S
n
>5}= 1 - P{S
n
< 5}=
=1- P{S
n
=0}- P{S
n
=1}- P{S
n
=2}- P{S
n
=3}- P{S
n
=4}.
(5.17) formulis Tanaxmad, P{S
n
= 0} = (0.98)
100
~ 0.13262. analog-
iurad, (5.22) formulis gamoyenebiT miviRebT, rom:
27065 . 0 13262 . 0
98 . 0
02 . 0 100
} 0 {
98 . 0 ) 1 0 (
02 . 0 ) 0 100 (
} 1 {
100 100
~
= =
+

= = S P S P ;
27341 . 0 27065 . 0
98 . 0 2
02 . 0 99
} 1 {
98 . 0 ) 1 1 (
02 . 0 ) 1 100 (
} 2 {
100 100
~
= =
+

= = S P S P ;
65
18228 . 0 27341 . 0
98 . 0 3
02 . 0 98
} 2 {
98 . 0 ) 1 2 (
02 . 0 ) 2 100 (
} 3 {
100 100
~
= =
+

= = S P S P ;
09021 . 0 18228 . 0
98 . 0 4
02 . 0 97
} 3 {
98 . 0 ) 1 3 (
02 . 0 ) 3 100 (
} 4 {
100 100
~
= =
+

= = S P S P .
amitom sabolood gvaqvs:
P{S
n
>5}= 1- P{S
n
=0}- P{S
n
=1}- P{S
n
=2}- P{S
n
=3}- P{S
n
=4}=
= 1 0.13262 0.27065 0.27341 0.18228 0.09021 = 0.051.
radgan 0.051 arc ise mcire albaTobaa, davaskvniT, rom xuTi
kacis gardacvalebiT arc ise uCveulo ram momxdara. Tu magaliTad,
gardaicvleboda 10 da ara 5 kaci, maSin analogiuri gamoTvlebiT gve-
qneboda, rom P{S
n
>10}< 0.001, rac faqtiurad ar unda momxdariyo da
amitom aseTi vaqcina saerTod unda amogveRo xmarebidan.
5.5. puasonis ganawileba.
es ganawileba, rogorc wesi, Cndeba iSviaTi xdomilobebis Sesw-
avlis dros. ganvixiloT magaliTad, muclis tifiT gardacvalebaTa
raodenoba sakmarisad didi droiTi intervalis, magaliTad, erTi wlis
ganmavlobaSi. Tu davuSvebT, rom am avadmyofobiT yoveldRiuri garda-
cvalebis albaToba sakmarisad mcirea da TanaukveT intervalebSi gard-
acvalebebi damoukidebeli SemTxveviTi sidideebia, maSin erTi wlis ga-
nmavlobaSi gardacvalebaTa raodenobas eqneba puasonis ganawileba. saz-
ogadod, diskretul X SemTxveviT sidides aqvs puasonis ganawileba,
Tu misi SesaZlo mniSvnelobebia 0,1,2,, xolo Sesabamisi albaTobebi
iTvleba Semdegnairad:

= = e
k
k X P
k
!
} { . (5.23)
gavarkvioT rogoria gardacvalebaTa raodenobis ganawileba dak-
virvebis dawyebidan drois t momentamde (t sakmarisad didi ricxvia)?
ganvixiloT [0, t] intervalis mcire droiTi qveintervali At. davuSvaT,
rom Sesrulebulia Semdegi pirobebi:
I. zustad erTi gardacvalebis albaToba am qveintervalSi prop-
orciulia intervalis sigrZis:
P{At intervalSi moxdeba erTi gardacvaleba}~ iAt,
sadac i raime dadebiTi mudmivia;
II. P{At intervalSi ar moxdeba arcerTi gardacvaleba}~1 - iAt.
faqtiurad, es ori piroba niSnavs, rom At intervalSi ar xdeba erT
gardacvalebaze meti.
III. gardacvalebaTa es procesi stacionarulia droSi (mudmivia,
sadac ar unda aviRoT At sigrZis mqone qveintervali);
66
IV. drois TanaukveT intervalebSi gardacvalebaTa raodenobebi
damoukidebeli SemTxveviTi sidideebia (anu gardacvalebaTa raodenoba
romelime intervalSi gavlenas ar axdens gardacvalebaTa albaTobebze
sxva TanaukveT intervalebSi).
maSin [0, t] intervalSi gardacvalebaTa raodenobas aqvs puasonis
ganawileba, romlisaTvisac (5.23) formulaSi Semavali parametri
akmayofilebs pirobas:
= i t. (5.24)
magaliTi 5.4. davuSvaT, rom muclis tifiT gardacvalebaTa ra-
odenoba erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi ganawilebulia puasonis kanoniT, pa-
rametriT = 4.6. rogoria gardacvalebaTa albaTuri ganawileba eqvsi
Tvis ganmavlobaSi? sami Tvis ganmavlobaSi?
amoxsna. X-iTa da Y-iT aRvniSnoT garacvalebaTa raodenoba Ses-
abamisad, eqvssa da sam TveSi. radgan = 4.6 da t = 1 (5.24) formulid-
an gamomdinareobs, rom i = 4.6. eqvsi Tvis ganmavlobaSi i = 4.6, t = 0.5
= i t = 4.6 0.5 = 2.3, xolo sami Tvis ganmavlobaSi i = 4.6, t = 0.25
= i t = 4.6 0.25 = 1.15. ase, rom X SemTxveviT sidides aqvs (5.23)
ganawileba parametriT = 2.3, xolo Y SemTxveviT sidides aqvs (5.23)
ganawileba parametriT = 1.15.
sainteresoa rogoria sazogadod puasonis ganawilebis ricxviTi
maxasiaTeblebi: maTematikuri lodini da dispersia.
puasonis ganawilebis maTematikuri lodini da dispersia tolia
da emTxveva ganawilebis parametrs:
EX = DX = . (5.25)
SevniSnoT, rom binomuris ganawilebis msgavsad, aqac SesaZleb-
elia albaTobaTa gadaTvlis rekursiuli wesis dadgena. marTlac,
(5.23)-dan advilad miviRebT, rom
} {
1
} 1 { k X P
k
k X P =
+
= + =

. (5.26)
mivubrundeT 5.4 magaliTs da gamovTvaloT magaliTad, albaTob-
ebi P{Y = 1}, P{Y = 2}, P{Y = 3}, P{Y = 0}, Tu cnobilia, rom e
-1.15
~
0.3166. gvaqvs: P{Y = 0}= e
-1.15
~ 0.3166;
3641 . 0 3166 . 0 15 . 1 } 0 {
1 0
15 . 1
} 1 { ~ = =
+
= = Y P Y P ;
2094 . 0 3641 . 0
2
15 . 1
} 1 {
1 1
15 . 1
} 2 { ~ = =
+
= = Y P Y P ;
0803 . 0 2094 . 0
3
15 . 1
} 2 {
1 2
15 . 1
} 3 { ~ = =
+
= = Y P Y P .
puasonis albaTobebis grafikuli warmodgenisaTvis SevniSnoT,
rom (5.26) formulis Tanaxmad, yoveli Semdegi albaToba winaze pata-
67
raa dawyebuli k = 1-dan, magram imisdamixedviT, Tu rogoria ganawile-
bis parametri (1-ze didia, Tu patara), SesaZlebelia ori SemTxveva:
P{X = 0}= e
-
s e
-
= P{X = 1}, roca > 1 da piriqiT, P{X = 0}> P{X =
1}, roca < 1. amitom grafikebs Semdegi saxe aqvs:
5.6. kavSiri binomur da puasonis ganawilebebs Soris.
rodesac cdaTa ricxvi binomuri ganawilebisaTvis sakmarisad
didia, xolo warmatebis albaToba sakmarisad mcire, binomuri ga-
nawileba SegviZlia SevcvaloT puasonis ganawilebiT, romlis paramet-
ric tolia = np, Tu es ukanaskneli arc didia da arc Zalian
mcire, sxva sityvebiT, rom vTqvaT,
n k e
k
np
p p C
np
k
k n k k
n
,..., 2 , 1 , 0 ,
!
) (
) 1 ( = ~

. (5.27)
sailustraciod moviyvanoT Semdegi
magaliTi 5.5. davuSvaT Cven gvainteresebs gadadis Tu ara gene-
tikurad mkerdis kibo qalebSi. vTqvaT, 40-49ww. asakobriv jgufSi
myofi 1000 qalidan, romelTa dedebsac hqondaT adre es daavadeba,
oTxs ganuviTarda daavadeba. ramdenad uCveuloa es, Tuki wina gamokv-
levebidan cnobilia, rom 1000-dan saSualod erTs uviTardeboda aRni-
Snuli daavadeba?
amoxsna. Cven gvainteresebs {X > 4} xdomilobis albaToba (sadac
X-iT aRniSnulia memkvidreebSi daavadebaTa raodenoba), roca n =1000, p
= 0.001. saZiebeli albaTobaa P{X > 4} = 1 - P{X s 3} = 1 - P{X = 0}- P{X =
1}- P{X = 2}- P{X = 3}. magram binomuri albaTobebis gamosaxulebebis
gamoangariSeba sakmarisad rTulia da amitom gamovTvaloT zemoT moyv-
anili albaTobebi puasonis formulis gamoyenebiT, romlisaTvisac =
= np= 10000.001=1. miviRebT,
68
P{X = 0}~ 0.3679, P{X = 1}~ 0.3679, P{X = 2}~ 0.1839, P{X = 3}~ 0.0613.
amitom sabolood gveqneba
P{X > 4} = 1 - P{X = 0}- P{X = 1}- P{X = 2}- P{X = 3}=
= 1 (0.3679+0.3679+0.1839+0.0613) = 0.019.
am albaTobis simcire asabuTebs eWvs am daavadebis memkvidreob-
iT xasiaTze.
amocanebi
1. ramdennairad SeiZleba anginis 50 SemTxvevidan 5-is amorCeva,
Tu dalagebas yuradReba eqceva?
2. gaakeTeT amocana 1 im SemTxvevisaTvis, roca dalagebas yura-
dReba ar eqceva.
3. gamoTvaleT
10
10
9
10
8
10
7
10
6
10
5
10
4
10
3
10
2
10
1
10
0
10
, , , , , , , , , , P P P P P P P P P P P .
4. gamoiangariSeT
10
10
9
10
8
10
7
10
6
10
5
10
4
10
3
10
2
10
1
10
0
10
, , , , , , , , , , C C C C C C C C C C C .
5. daamtkiceT, rom
1
1
1 +
+
+
= +
k
n
k
n
k
n
C C C nebismieri 0 s k s n 1.
6. gamoTvaleT albaToba imisa, rom 5.3 magaliTSi gardacvlil-
Ta raodenoba meti an tolia 7-ze, 8-ze, 9-ze.
7. ras udris albaToba arcerTi adamianis gardacvalebisa 5.3
magaliTSi?
8. gamoTvaleT Semdegi saxis albaTobebi 5.4 magaliTSi:
P{X = 0}, P{X = 1}, P{X = 2}, P{X = 3}, P{X = 4}, P{X = 5}.
9. gamoTvaleT me-8 amocanis albaTobebi rekursiulad.
10. cnobilia, rom Zroxebis 5% daavadebulia tuberkuloziT.
SemTxveviT SearCies 10 Zroxa sxvadsxva regionidan da daTvales daava-
debuli Zroxebis raodenoba. dawereT daavadebuli Zroxebis ganawileb-
is kanoni.
11. depresieuli pacientebis 60% klasificirebuli iyo rogorc
introvertuli pirovneba, 40% ki rogorc eqstrovertuli. dawereT
SemTxvevioT SerCeul 15 pacientSi introvertuli pirovnebebis ganawi-
lebis kanoni.
12. 10 ZaRlis sisxlSi daTvales wiTeli ujredebis raodenoba
(1000000 erT ml-ze) da miiRes Semdegi monacemebi:
9.5 7.5 7.0 5.9 9.5 6.2 6.5 8.7 5.8 7.7.
12.1. ZaRlebis ramden procents aqvs sisxlSi wiTeli ujredebis rao-
denoba naklebi an toli 6.0-ze;
12.2. Tu ZaRlebis es SerCeva aris ZaRlebis reprezentatuli SerCeva,
maSin ras udris albaToba imisa, rom SemTxveviT SerCeuli 20 ZaRli-
dan 4-s aqvs wiTeli ujredebis raodenoba naklebi an toli 6.0-ze.
13. afrikaSi 45 ubanze ikvlevdnen lomebis arsebobas (+ niSn-
avs, rom lomebi arian, xolo - ki lomebi ar arian)":
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
69
- - - + - + + - - - + - - + -
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
+ - - - - - - + - - - - - - -
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
- - - + + - - - - - - - - - -
13.1. ubnebis ramden procentze iyo lomebis arseboba dafiqsirebuli.
13.2. ras udris albaToba imisa, rom SemTxveviT SerCeuli 12 ubnidan
6-ze aRmoCndeba lomi.
14. cnobilia, rom arcerTi soko ar cocxlobs momaval wlamde.
nebismieri soko momdevno wels iZleva raodenobis axal sokos. da-
vuSvaT, rom mimdinare wels xarobs ori soko. vipovoT momaval wels
sokoTa q raodenobis ganawilebis kanoni, gamovTvaloT q -s maTematik-
uri lodini da dispersia, Tu SemTxveviTi sididis ganawilebis kano-
nia:
0 1 2
P 0.2 0.6 0.2
m i T i T e b a: SeadgineT damoukidebeli , wyvilis erToblivi
ganawilebis kanoni, q = + .
l e q c i a 5.
Tavi 6. uwyveti SemTxveviTi sidideebi. ZiriTadi
albaTuri ganawilebebi.
6.1. uwyveti SemTxveviTi sidideebi da maTi ganawileba.
wina leqciaSi Cven gavecaniT diskretul SemTxveviTi sidideebs
da aRvniSneT, rom maTi mocema niSnavda an maTi ganawilebis an Sesabam-
isi ganawilebis funqciis mocemas, romelsac, sxvaTa Soris, hqonda sa-
fexura funqciis grafiki. samarTliania piriqiTac, Tu raime SemTxvevi-
Ti sididis ganawilebis funqcia uban-uban mudmivia, maSin Sesabamisi
SemTxveviTi sidide diskretulia. magram arsebobs SemTxveviTi sidedee-
bi, romelTa ganawilebis funqcia aRaraa uban-uban mudmivi. magaliTisa-
Tvis, SevecadoT davaxasiaToT iseTi sidide, rogoricaa SemTxveviT ar-
Ceuli adamianis asaki mocemul momentSi.
magaliTi 6.1. davuSvaT zRvruli asaki Seadgens o weliwads (ma-
galiTad, o = 100 an o = 150, Tumca bibliuri personaJebi ufro di-
dxansac cocxlobdnen). SemoviRoT SemTxveviTi sidide T SemTxveviT
arCeuli adamianis asaki 2009 wlis 1 ianvrisaTvis da vigulisxmoT,
rom asaki izomeba zustad (wlebSi, TveebSi, dReebSi, saaTebSi, wuTeb-
70
Si, wamebSi da a.S.). maSin cxadia, rom am SemTxveviT sidides SeuZlia
miiRos yvela namdvili mniSvneloba [0,o] ricxviTi intervalidan. mag-
ram gansxvavebiT diskretuli SemTxveviTi sidideebisagan, aq azri ara
aqvs vilaparakoT {T = x} xdomilobasa da mis albaTobaze, radgan wina-
swar veravin ityvis ama Tu im adamianis asaks (zemoT aRniSnuli skal-
is mixedviT), aramed, ufro azriani iqneba vilaparakoT {a s T s b} an
{T s x} saxis xdomilobebsa da maT albaTobebze. am SemTxvevaSic T Sem-
TxveviTi sididis ganawilebis funqcias uwodeben {T s x} saxis xdomi-
lobis albaTobas:
F
T
(x) = P{T s x}. (6.1)
albaT yvela gaiziarebs im mosazrebas, rom nebismieri asakis
adamians Tanabari Sansi aqvs iyos arCeuli da Sesabamisad, ganawileb-
is funqciis mniSvneloba 0-is tolia, roca x<0, is tolia F
T
(x) =
= P{T s x}= x/o, roca 0 s x s o da tolia 1-s, roca x > o. ase, rom Se-
sabamisi ganawilebis funqciis grafiks aqvs Semdegi saxe:
F
T
1
0 o x
am ganawilebas uwodeben Tanabar ganawilebas [0,o] Sualedze.
aseve ganimarteba Tanabari ganawileba nebismier [c,d] Sualedze:
>
< s
<
=
d x
d x c
c d
c x
c x
x F
X
roca
roca
roca
, 1
,
, 0
) ( . (6.2)
SevniSnoT, rom Tanabari ganawilebis funqcia ar warmoadgens
safexura funqcias da is uwyvetia. aseT SemTxvevebSi amboben, rom T
(X) SemTxveviT sidides aqvs uwyveti ganawileba. am dros {T = x} xdom-
ilobis albaToba 0-is tolia nebismieri x-saTvis, magram intuiciurad
mainc gvesmis, rom SemTxveviTi sididis esa Tu is mniSvneloba ufro
metadaa mosalodneli, vidre romelime sxva mniSvneloba. SevecadoT
sicxade SevitanoT am sakiTxSi. amisaTvis SemovitanoT ganawilebis si-
mkvrivis cneba, romelic ganmartebiT iseTi arauaryofiTi funqciaa,
romlis qveS raime [a,b] ricxviTi intervalis farTobic emTxveva SemT-
xveviTi sididis aRniSnul intervalSi moxvedris albaTobas. analizu-
rad, Tu cnobilia SemTxveviTi sididis ganawilebis funqciis saxe, Se-
71
sabamisi simkvrive (romelic f
X
(x) simboloTi aRiniSneba) warmoadgens
ganawilebis funqciis warmoebuls:
f
X
(x) = ) (x F
X
' . (6.3)
sailustraciod moviyvanoT simkvrivis Semdegi
magaliTi 6.2. maRalwneviani avadmyofebisaTvis:
f
X
0 80 90 95 100 x
naxazze gamosaxuli A, B da C areebis farTobebi Sesabamisad Se-
esabameba sazRvris (borderline), Sua hipertonul (mild hypertensive) da
Zlier hipertonulobis (severe hypertensive) albaTobebs 35-44 ww. asa-
kobriv jgufSi myofi mamakacebisaTvis.
am farTobebis (albaTobebis) ricxviTi mniSvnelobebis gamoTvla,
dakavSirebulia imasTan, Tu rogor wirs warmoadgens ganawilebis simk-
vrive, anu rogoria misi analizuri saxe, gamoTvla ki xdeba maTematik-
ur analizSi kargad cnobili niuton-laibnicis integraluri formu-
liT:
) ( ) ( ) ( } { a F b F dx x f b X a P
X X
b
a
X
= = s <
}
. (6.4)
diskretuli SemTxvevis msgavsad, aqac Semodis uwyveti SemTxve-
viTi sididis ricxviTi maxasiaTeblebi, maTematikuri lodini da dispe-
rsia (standartuli gadaxra). imisaTvis, rom ar gadavitvirToT maTema-
tikuri simboloebiT, aRvniSnavT, rom maTi Sinaarsi igivea, rac diskr-
etul SemTxvevaSi, mxolod gamoangariSebis wesisaTvis davimaxsovroT,
rom diskretulisaTvis moyvanil yvela formulaSi, ajamvis

simbo-
lo icvleba integrebis
}
simboloTi, SemTxveviTi sididis x
i
mniSvne-
loba icvleba mimdinare cvladis x mniSvnelobiT da bolos p
i
albaTo-
ba icvleba f
X
(x)dx gamosaxulebiT. magaliTad, maTematikuri lodinis
gamosaxulebebi diskretul da uwyvet SemTxvevebSi Sesabamisad aris:
diskretuli SemTxveva uwyveti SemTxveva
>
=
1 i
i i
p x EX
}
+

= dx x f x EX
X
) (
A
B
C
72
(6.3)-dan gamomdinare, SevniSnoT, rom f
X
(x)dx marTlac albaTobaa
X SemTxveviTi sididis moxvedrisa mcire [x, x + dx] intervalSi:
f
X
(x)dx ~ P{x < X s x + dx}. (6.5)
magaliTi 6.1 (gagrZeleba). Tanabari ganawilebis zemoT SemoRe-
buli funqciisaTvis, ganawilebis simkvrives aqvs Semdegi saxe:
f
T
1/o
0 a b o x
T SemTxveviTi sididis [a,b] ricxviTi intervalSi moxvedris
albaToba, rogorc zemoT aRvniSneT, tolia naxazze gamosaxuli A aris
farTobisa, romelic am SemTxvevaSi warmoadgens marTkuTxeds, romlis
gverdebis sigrZeebia 1/o da b - a. ase, rom
P{a < T s b} = S(A) = (1/o )( b - a) = ( b - a) /o.
SevniSnoT, rom albaToba ar Seicvleba, Tu [a,b] intervals ga-
vwevT marcxniv (cxadia, 0-mde) an marjvniv (o-mde). sxva sityvebiT
rom vTqvaT, Tanabari sigrZis intervalebSi moxvedris albaTobebi Ta-
nabaria. swored amitomac hqvia am ganawilebas Tanabari ganawileba. Tu
magaliTad, o =100, a = 67 da b = 82, maSin albaToba imisa, rom SemTxve-
viT amorCeuli adamianis asaki moxvdeba [67,82] asakobriv intervalSi
tolia: P{67 < T s 82} = (82 - 67)/100 = 15/100 = 0.15.
6.2. normaluri SemTxveviTi sidideebi (normaluri ganawileba).
es aris yvelaze xSirad gamoyenebadi uwyveti ganawileba. mas
xSirad gausis ganawilebasac uwodeben (germaneli maTematikosis gaus-
is sapativsacemod). am kanons emorCileba uamravi SemTxveviTi sidide,
maT Soris axalSobilTa wonebi 2.1 magaliTidan, sisxlis wneva 2.3 ma-
galiTidan da uamravi sxva. amitomac momavalSi xSirad iqneba daSvebu-
li Sesaswavli statistikuri modelis normaluroba.
gansazRvra 6.1. normaluri ewodeba iseT uwyvet X SemTxveviT
sidides, romelic Rebulobs namdvil mniSvnelobebs da romlis ganawi-
lebis simkvrives aqvs Semdegi saxe:
.
|
\
|
=
2
2
2
) (
exp
2
1
) (
o
o t
x
x f
X
. (6.6)
A
73
(6.6) ganawilebis simkvrives is Tviseba aqvs, rom f
X
( + t) = f
X
( - t),
rac mis simetrulobas niSnavs parametris mimarT. SevniSnoT, rom
f
X
(+) = f
X
(-) = 0 da udides mniSvnelobas f
X
(x) funqcia aRwevs x =
wertilSi:
o t
2
1
) ( =
X
f , (anu am ganawilebis modaa x = ). sabolo-
od, mis grafiks aqvs zariseburi forma da gamosaxulia naxazze:
f
X
o t 2
1
0 -o +o
rogorc vxedavT, normaluri ganawilebis simkvrivis saxes sav-
sebiT gansazRvravs misi parametrebi: da o > 0: gviCvenebs ganawil-
ebis adgilmdebareobas ricxviT RerZze, xolo o parametri gviCvenebs,
Tu ramdenad maRali (da maSasadame mWidroa grafiki -s mimarT), an
piriqiT, Tu ramdenad dabali da gawolilia is Ox RerZis gaswvriv.
es faqtebi sulac araa SemTxveviTi, radgan am parametrebis Sinaarsi
SemdegSi mdgomareobs:
EX = da DX = o
2
. (6.7)
maSasadame, yofila X SemTxveviTi sididis maTematikuri lodini,
xolo o warmoadgens X SemTxveviTi sididis standartul gadaxras. im
faqts, rom X SemTxveviTi sidide normaluradaa ganawilebuli parame-
trebiT da o
2
mokled ase weren:
X ~ N( , o
2
). (6.8)
6.2.1. normaluri ganawilebis Tvisebebi.
1) normaluri X SemTxveviTi sididis (N(,o
2
)-is) nebismieri
wrfivi gardaqmna Y = aX + b kvlav normaluria da
Y ~ N(a + b, a
2
o
2
). (6.9)
2) Tu 1) TvisebaSi aviRebT a = 1/o da b = - /o, maSin 1)-dan
miviRebT, rom
Y = (X - ) / o ~ N(0, 1). (6.10)
unda aRiniSnos, rom X SemTxveviTi sididis aseT wrfiv gardaqm-
nas mis standartizacias uwodeben, xolo miRebul N(0,1) ganawilebas
ki standartul normalur ganawilebas. am ganawilebas fundamentalu-
ri adgili ukavia mTels daskvniT statistikaSi. misi saSualebiT xde-
74
ba normalur ganawilebasTan dakavSirebuli yvela albaTobis ricxviTi
mniSvnelobis gamoTvla. es gamowveulia e.w. standartuli normaluri
cxrilebis arsebobiT: daskvniTi (maTematikuri) statistikis nebismier
saxelmZRvaneloSi moyvanilia standartuli normaluri ganawilebis
cxrilebi, anu u(x) P{N(0,1) s x} saxis albaTobebi x cvladis nebism-
ieri arauaryofiTi mniSvnelobisaTvis, romlisaTvisac 0 s x s 3 (zogjer
x s 4-mde). mxolod arauaryofiT x-ebSi ganawilebis funqciis mniSvnel-
obebis mocema ganpirobebulia imiT, rom uaryofiT x-ebSi albaTobebi
iTvleba u(x) funqciis Semdeg Tvisebaze dayrdnobiT, rom
u(-x) = 1 - u(x). (6.11)
garda amisa, u(3) ~ 0.9987, rac savsebiT amarTlebs funqciis
mniSvnelobebis mocemas mxolod 0 s x s 3 intervalisaTvis, rac sakmar-
isia gamoTvlebis Casatareblad, Tumca ufro zusti gamoTvlebisaTvis
cxrilebi rogorc vTqviT, Sedgenilia 4-mdec ki; magaliTad, u(3.62) ~
0.9999. standartuli normaluri ganawilebis simkvrives aRniSnaven
(x)-iT (nacvlad zemoT naxmari f
X
(x)-isa).
aRvniSnoT u
,o
(x) P{N(,o
2
) s x}. maSin 2) Tviseba SeiZleba
ase gadavweroT:
u
,o
(x) = u((x - )/o). (6.12)
2) Tvisebis (an rac igivea (6.12) formulis) gamoyenebis sailu-
straciod gavagrZeloT 6.2 magaliTis ganxilva da davsvaT aseTi Sek-
iTxva: ras udris albaToba imisa, rom Sua hipertonul (mild hypertens-
ive) 35-44 ww. asakobriv jgufSi myofi mamakacebis diastoluri sisx-
lis wneva moxvdeba intervalSi [95,100]?
amoxsna. aRniSnuli asakis Sua hipertonuli (mild hypertensive)
avadmyofebisaTvis cnobilia, rom = 90 da o =15. aRvniSnoT X-iT aRn-
iSnuli asakisaTvis diastoluri sisxlis wnevis sidide, CavTvaloT,
rom is ganawilebulia normalurad zemoT aRniSnuli parametrebiT,
anu X ~ N(90, 225). maSin standartuli normaluri ganawilebis cxril-
ebis gamoyenebiT advili gamosaTvlelia saZiebeli albaToba:
P{95 s X s 100}= P{(95 90)/15 s (X 90)/15 s (100-90)/15}=
= P{0.33s N(0,1)s0.67}= 0.7486 0.6293 = 0.1193.
3) SevniSnoT, rom radgan normaluri ganawileba simetrulia
misi saSualos mimarT, am ganawilebis mediana emTxveva saSualos,
anu (6.12)-is ZaliT, u
,o
() = u(( - )/o) = u(0) = 0.5.
daskvniT statistikaSi gansakuTrebiT xSirad Cven dagvWirdeba
standartuli normaluri ganawilebis p-rigis kvantilis cneba. sazog-
adod, uwyveti F
X
ganawilebis p-rigis kvantili ewodeba argumentis
im x
p
mniSvnelobas, romlisaTvisac
F
X
(x
p
) = p. (6.13)
75
standartuli normaluri ganawilebis SemTxvevaSi p-rigis kvan-
tils z
p
-Ti aRniSnaven. am ganawilebis simetrulobis gamo, adgili aqvs
Semdeg Tanafardobas:
z
p
= - z
1- p
. (6.14)
4) damoukidebel normalur SemTxveviT sidideTa nebismieri
wrfivi kombinacia kvlav normaluria: vTqvaT, X
1
, X
2
, , X
n
damoukidebe-
li normaluri SemTxveviTi sidideebia da ) , ( ~
2
i i i
N X o . maSin
.
|
\
|
=

= = =
n
i
i i
n
i
i i
n
i
i i
c c N X c Z
1
2 2
1 1
, ~ o , (6.15)
nebismieri c
1
, c
2
, , c
n
e R.
6.3. binomuri da puasonis ganawilebebis aproqsimacia
normaluri ganawilebiT.
normaluri ganawilebis uaRresad mniSvnelovan Tvisebad iTvle-
ba is, rom es ganawileba garkveul pirobebSi SeiZleba gamoyenebul iq-
nas, rogorc miaxloeba (aproqsimacia) ama Tu im ganawilebisa, roca am
ukanaskneliT albaTobaTa gamoTvla sakmarisad rTulia (rom aRaraferi
vTqvaT gamoTvlis saerTod SesaZleblobaze). am nawilSi Cven Sevecdeb-
iT warmovaCinoT normaluri ganawilebis es Tviseba binomuri da puas-
onis ganawilebebisaTvis.
6.3.1. binomuri ganawilebebis aproqsimacia normaluriT.
davuSvaT, X SemTxveviTi sidide ganawilebulia binomurad, param-
etrebiT, n da p, amasTan situacia iseTia, rom n da np sakmarisad di-
di ricxvebia. maSin gasagebia, rom Zalzed Zneli iqneba
k n k k
n n
p p C k S P

= = ) 1 ( } { da
= s s
2
1
) 1 ( } {
2 1
k
k k
k n k k
n n
p p C k S k P
saxis albaTobebis gamoTvla. am albaTobaTa gamosaTvlelad iyeneben
swored normalur aproqsimaciebs:
a)
.
|
\
|
~ = =

) 1 ( ) 1 (
1
) 1 ( } {
p np
np k
p np
p p C k S P
k n k k
n n
; (6.16)
b) ~ = s s

=
2
1
) 1 ( } {
2 1
k
k k
k n k k
n n
p p C k S k P
.
|
\
|
.
|
\
|
+
u ~
) 1 (
5 . 0
) 1 (
5 . 0
1 2
p np
np k
p np
np k
, (6.17)
sadac da u Sesabamisad aRniSnavs standartuli normaluri ganawi-
lebis simkvrivesa da ganawilebis funqcias.
76
sailustraciod ganvixiloT Semdegi
magaliTi 6.3. davuSvaT, albaToba imisa, rom sisxlis TeTri na-
wilaki neutrofiluria (neutrophil) tolia 0.6-is. ras udris albaTo-
ba imisa, rom 100 sisxlis TeTri nawilakidan aseTebis raodenoba aRm-
oCndeba SualedSi [50,75]?
amoxsna. binomuri ganawilebiT saZiebeli albaTobis zusti mniS-
vnelobaa

=
= s s
75
50
100
100 100
) 4 . 0 ( ) 6 . 0 ( } 75 50 {
k
k k k
C S P , magram rogorc
vxedavT, is sakmarisad rTuli gamosaTvlelia. (6.17) formulis gamoy-
enebiT ki miviRebT:
=
.
|
\
|

u
.
|
\
|

u ~ s s
4 . 0 6 . 0 100
6 . 0 100 5 . 49
4 . 0 6 . 0 100
6 . 0 100 5 . 75
} 75 50 {
100
S P
983 . 0 ) 14 . 2 ( ) 16 . 3 ( ~ u u = .
6.3.2. puasonis ganawilebebis aproqsimacia normaluriT.
iseve, rogorc wina SemTxvevaSi, rodesac puasonis ganawilebis
parametri sakmarisad didi ricxvia, sakmarisad mouxerxebelia
= s s
2
1
!
} {
2 1
k
k k
k
e
k
k X k P

saxis albaTobebis gamoTvla da aqac iyeneben

normalur aproqsimacias, romelsac Semdegi saxe aqvs:
.
|
\
|

u
.
|
\
|
+
u ~ = s s

=

5 . 0 5 . 0
!
} {
1 2
2 1
2
1
k k
e
k
k X k P
k
k k
k
. (6.18)
magaliTi 6.4. ganvixiloT baqteriaTa raodenoba petris lambaq-
is A areSi. davuSvaT, rom baqteriis dakvirvebis (aRmoCenis) ganawil-
eba eqvemdebareba puasonis kanons parametriT =iA, sadac i = 0.1 da
A =100sm
2
. davuSvaT, dakvirvebul iqna 20 baqteria. ramdenad moulod-
nelia es?
amoxsna. pirobis Tanaxmad, gamosaTvlelia P{X > 20} albaToba.
cxadia, rom saZiebeli albaTobis zusti mniSvnelobaa
= >
20
!
} 20 {
k
k
e
k
X P

da rogorc 6.3 magaliTSi, is sakmarisad rTu-

li gamosaTvlelia. (6.18) formulis mixedviT ki vpoulobT:
0013 . 0 9987 . 0 1 ) 3 ( 1
10
10 5 . 0 20
1 } 20 { = = u =
.
|
\
|
u ~ > X P ,
rac imas niSnavs, rom 20 an meti baqteriis (koloniis) gamoCena
100sm
2
-ze 10000 lambaqidan SeiZleba mxolod 13-Si moxdes. ra Tqma
unda, es Zalzed iSviaTi xdomilobaa
77
amocanebi
1. insultis zusti diagnozis dasma klinikur simptomebze day-
rdnobiT, Zalian Znelia. standartuli diagnosturi testi, romelic
medicinaSi gamoiyeneba insultis dasadgenad damyarebulia angiogramaze.
magram am testis gamoyenebas Tan sdevs garkveuli riski pacientisaTv-
is. amitom SemuSavebul iqna sxvadasxva araagresiuli meTodi, romelic
SeiZleba iZleodes iseTsave efeqts, rogorsac angiograma. erT-erTi
aseTi meTodi eyrdnoba tvinis sisxlis nakadis (CBF cerebral blood
flow) sidides, radgan tipiurad insultian avadmyofebs es sidide Sed-
arebiT daqveiTebuli aqvT. davuSvaT, rom janmrTel populaciaSi CBF
ganawilebulia normalurad saSualoTi 75 da standartuli gadaxriT
17. iTvleba, rom adamiani insultiania, Tuki CBF-is sidide 40-ze dab-
alia. normalur pacientTa ra procenti SeiZleba SecdomiT iqnas miCn-
euli insultiT daavadebulad?
2. glaukoma aris Tvalis daavadeba, romelic xasiaTdeba SidaTv-
alis maRali wneviT. SidaTvalis wnevis sidide Cveulebriv populacia-
Si ganawilebulia normalurad saSualoTi 16 mm vwy.sv. da standartu-
li gadaxriT 3 mm vwy.sv. normad iTvleba am sididis moxvedra [12, 20]
mm vwy.sv. intervalSi. populaciis ra procenti akmayofilebs normis
am kriteriums?
3. rogor Seicvleba pasuxi 6.3 magaliTSi, Tu neutrofilobis
albaToba yoveli nawilakisa iqneboda 0.5, 0.7, 0.9?
4. rogor Seicvleba pasuxi 6.4 magaliTSi, Tu A = 50sm
2
-s? Tu
i=0.15, i=0.2.
5. ras daskvnis gakeTeba SeiZleboda 6.4 magaliTSi, 20-is magi-
vrad rom gamoCeniliyo 15 baqteria, 10 baqteria?
6. pirveli Svilis dabadebisas, dedis asaki normalurad aris
ganawilebuli saSualoTi 26.6 da standartuli gadaxriT 3.2 weli.
6.1. ipoveT albaToba imisa, rom SemTxveviT arCeuli aseTi dedis asaki
iqneba 20-ze naklebi;
6.2. ra asakze metia aseTi dedebis asakebis 75%.
7. 40 kviriani Cvilis wona normalurad aris ganawilebuli
3500 gramis toli saSualoTi da 430 grami staandartuli gadaxriT.
7.1 gamoTvaleT im bavSvebis procenti, romelTa wona naklebia 2500
gramze;
7.2. ipoveT wonebis I, II da III kvartilebi.
8. axali zelandiis 18 wliani mamakacebis saSualo simaRle 1.7
metria, xolo standartuli gadaxra ki 0.15 metri. ipoveT albaToba
imisa, rom 100 mamakacis saSualo simaRle 1.74 metrze metia.
9. qveviT moyvanilia 1998 wels aSS-Si qmris asakis ganawileba:
78
asaki s24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-61
fard. sixS. 0.023 0.178 0.257 0.217 0.079 0.029
asaki 62-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 >85
fard. sixS. 0.040 0.062 0.049 0.039 0.019 0.008
ipoveT albaToba imisa, rom SemTxveviT SerCeul ojaxSi: a) qmris asa-
ki ar aRemateba 44 wels; b) qmari 75 wlis an ufro xnieri iqneba.
10. V ml tbis wyalSi organuli nawilakebis raodenoba emorCi-
leba puasonis ganawilebis kanons saSualoTi 0.2V . gamoTvaleT alba-
Toba imisa, rom: a). 50 ml tbis wyali Seicavs 8-ze nakleb organul
nawilaks; b). 30 ml tbis wyali Seicavs 2-ze met organul nawilaks;
g). 10 ml tbis wyali Seicavs zustad 3 organul nawilaks.
11. sakonditro fabrika amzadebs didi raodenobiT ferad tkbi-
leuls. cnobilia, rom saSualod tkbileulis 20% mwvane ferisaa.
SekvraSi aris 20 tkbileuli. igulisxmeT, rom SekvraSi tkbileuli
xvdeba SemTxveviT fabrikis mier damzadebuli mTeli produqciidan da
gamoTvaleT albaToba imisa, rom SekvraSi zustad 7 tkbileuli iqneba
mwvane.
12. mefrinveleobis fabrikaSi warmoebuli 6 6 kvercxi Calag-
ebulia yuTebSi. TiTeuli kvercxis gatexvis albaToba sxva kvercxebi-
sagan damoukideblad aris 0.1. yuTs davarqvaT cudi, Tu masSi devs
sul cota 2 gatexili kvercxi. ipoveT albaToba imisa, rom SemTxvev-
iT SerCeuli yuTi cudia.
13. garkveul tropikul kunZulze romelime konkretul TveSi
qariSxalis moxdenis albaTobaa 0.08. gamoiyeneT binomialuri ganawil-
eba da gamoTvaleT albaToba imisa, rom wlis ganmavlobaSi qariSxali
iqneba orze met TveSi.
14. saxlis mepatrones surs baRSi daTesos balaxi. Teslis mob-
neva xdeba SemTxveviT da baRis konkretul 1 kv. santimetri farTobis
mqone nawilSi davardnili Teslis raodenoba warmoadgens puasonis
kanoniT ganawilebul SemTxveviT sidides, romlis saSualo baRis nawi-
lis farTobis proporciulia. baRis farTobia 50 kv. metri da iTeseba
6
10 balaxis Tesli. gamoTvaleT: a). -s saSualo; b). albaToba imisa,
rom 1 kv. sm. farTobis mqone nawilSi ar daecema arcerTi Tesli; g).
{ 0 4} P = > an .
15. kompiuteris kartrijis muSaobis xangrZlivobaa saaTi.
SemTxveviTi sididis ganawilebis simkvrivea:
2
, 4;
( )
0,
cx x
f x
>
Tu
sxvagan.
gamoTvaleT c mudmivis mniSvneloba. ipoveT albaToba imisa, rom: a).
kartriji imuSavebs sul cota 500 saaTi; b). kartriji Sesacvle-
79
li gaxdeba manam sanam is imuSavebs 600 saaTi; g). ori kartriji Se-
sacvleli iqneba manam sanam TiToeuli imuSavebs 600-600 saaTi; d).
oTxi kartrijidan ori imuSavebs 600 saaTze mets, xolo ori 600
saaTze naklebs.
III. daskvniTi statistika
l e q c i a 6.
Tavi 7. SefasebaTa Teoria. wertilovani Sefasebebi.
7.1. Sesavali.
wina leqciebSi Cven vixilavdiT iseT amocanebs, romlebSic moc-
emuli iyo populaciis ganawilebis parametrebi da amocana mdgomareo-
bda martivi xdomilobebis albaTobaTa saSualebiT, modelis specifik-
aze dayrdnobiT, gamogveTvala SedarebiT rTuli xdomilobebis albaT-
obebi, sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, amocana mdgomareobda populaciis
parametrebze dayrdnobiT SerCevis yofaqcevis ganWvretaSi. danarCeni
leqciebi ganekuTvneba daskvniTi statistikis Seswavlas, romlis mTav-
ari amocanac rogorc gvaxsovs, mdgomareobs SerCevidan miRebuli inf-
ormaciis safuZvelze daskvnebis ganzogadebaSi mTeli populaciisaTvis.
amdenad, darCenil leqciebSi Sesaswavli amocanebi ukve Seswavlili
amocanebis Sebrunebulia. sqematurad, sakiTxi ase dgas: SerCevidan
populaciisaken. pirvel ori leqcia, sadac ganxiluli iyo aRweriTi
statistikis amocanebi, garkveuli azriT SeiZleba CaiTvalos am sqema-
turi gadasvlisaTvis mosamzadebel etapad. albaTobis Teoriis roli
(leqciebi 3-5), ki imaSi mdgomareobs, rom Teoriulad daasabuTos es
sqematuri gadasvla. mTavari momenti am nawilebis Serwymaa, rac imas
niSnavs, rom axla ukve SerCevas Cven unda vuyuroT ara mxolod rog-
orc ricxvebis raRac (calsaxad gansazRvrul) erTobliobas, aramed
misi elementebi (calkeuli ricxviTi monacemi) ganxilul unda iqnas,
rogorc romeliRac SemTxveviTi sididis konkretuli realizacia, Sem-
TxveviTi sididisa, romelsac Tavisi ganawileba aqvs, SemTxveviTi sid-
idisa, romelsac Tavisi ganawilebis parametrebi aqvs da a.S. maSasada-
me, ricxviTi monacemi aRaraa mxolod ricxvi: mis ukan dgas SemTxvevi-
80
Ti sidide Tavisi ganawilebis kanoniTa da parametrebiT. mxolod aseTi
midgomiT SeiZleba raime azriani daskvnebis keTeba ama Tu im movlenis
Sesaxeb movlenaTa masobrivi (bevrjeradi) gameorebis SemTxvevaSi.
7.2. wertilovani Sefasebebi.
daviwyoT magaliTebis ganxilviT.
magaliTi 7.1. davuSvaT, Cven vuzomavT sistoluri sisxlis wnev-
is sidides samoas soflis mosaxleobas, romlis Sesaxebac wina dakvi-
rvebebi ar arsebobs, Tumca, Cveni rwmeniT es sidide normaluradaa ga-
nawilebuli, magram ucnobi (, o
2
) parametrebiT. rogor SeiZleba Sef-
asdes es parametrebi?
magaliTi 7.2. davuSvaT, romelime adamianis organizmSi sisxlis
TeTr nawilakebSi neitrofilurebis raodenoba binomuradaa ganawileb-
uli, magram CvenTvis ucnobia ganawilebis parametri p. rogor Sevafas-
oT is?
magaliTi 7.3. davuSvaT, baqteriaTa koloniebis raodenoba petr-
is lambaqis garkveul areze ganawilebulia puasonis kanoniT, magram
CvenTvis ucnobia ganawilebis parametris mniSvneloba. rogor Sevaf-
asoT es parametri?
rogorc vxedavT, samive SemTxvevaSi cnobilia ganawilebis saxe,
magram ucnobia maTSi Semavali parametrebi. amocana ki mdgomareobs ga-
nawilebaTa am parametrebis SefasebaSi. ra unda gvesmodes saerTod
Sefasebis qveS? amis gasaazreblad, gavixsenoT yvelasaTvis kargad
cnobili iracionaluri t ricxvi, romelic wrewiris sigrZis mis dia-
metrTan Sefardebis tolia da davsvaT aseTi SekiTxva: ras udris t-s
ricxviTi mniSvneloba? alabaT, uamravi Cvengani ityvis, rom es aris
3.14. magram cxadia, rom es pasuxi swori ar aris, radgan 3.14 aris t
ricxvis mxolod miaxloebiTi mniSvneloba measedamde sizustiT. aseve,
3.142 aris t-s miaxloebiTi mniSvneloba meaTasedamde sizustiT da a.S.
aseT SemTxvevebSi vityviT, rom Cven vasaxelebT t ricxvis zusti mniS-
vnelobis sxvadasxva Sefasebebs. es Sefasebebi ki, imiT xasiaTdeba, rom
|t -3.14| < 0.01, |t -3.142| < 0.001 da a.S. analogiurad, ama Tu im ganawil-
ebis parametris Sefasebis qveS unda gvesmodes sidide, romelic param-
etris WeSmarit mniSvnelobasTan sakmarisad axlos iqneba. swored
aseT Sefasebebs uwodeben ganawilebaTa parametrebis wertilovani Sef-
asebebi. magram wina SemTxvevisagan gansxvavebiT (roca t cnobili ricx-
via), am SemTxvevaSi parametris WeSmariti mniSvneloba ucnobi sidid-
ea. maS rogor unda davaxasiaToT Sefasebis siaxlove WeSmarit mniS-
vnelobasTan? swored am sakiTxs eZRvneba es nawili.
davuSvaT, martivi SerCeviTi meTodis safuZvelze miRebulia n
moculobis SerCeva raime generaluri erTobliobidan (gavixsenoT I
81
leqcia): x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
. Sefasebis amocanis dasasmelad, rogorc zemoT aR-
vniSneT, Cven am ricxvebs unda vuyuroT ara mxolod ricxvebs, rog-
orc aseTs, aramed, garkveuli SemTxveviTi sidideebis realizaciebs,
anu unda davuSvaT, rom arsebobs damoukidebeli erTnairad ganawileb-
uli SemTxveviTi sidideebis mimdevroba X
1
, X
2
,..., X
n
, romelTa konkre-
tuli gaTamaSebis Sedegadac miviReT swored x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
ricxvebi. ma-
Sasadame, generaluri erTobliobidan SerCevis amokrefis proceduras
Cven vaigivebT damoukidebeli, erTnairad ganawilebuli X
1
, X
2
,..., X
n
Se-
mTxveviTi sidideebis gaTamaSebis procedurasTan an rac igivea, mas va-
igivebT im saerTo ganawilebis mqone X SemTxveviTi sididis n jeradi
damoukidebeli gaTamaSebis procedurasTan, rogoradac ganawilebulia
X
1
, X
2
,..., X
n
SemTxveviTi sidideebi. rogorc es zemoT moyvanili magal-
iTebidan davinaxeT, es saerTo ganawileba (anu populaciis ganawileba)
SeiZleba iyos normaluri, binomuri, puasonis da sxva mravali ganawi-
leba. aseT SemTxvevebSi amboben, rom x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
warmoadgens martiv Se-
mTxveviT SerCevas (realizacias) Sesabamisad, normaluri, binomuri, pu-
asonis da a.S. generaluri erTobliobidan.
gavixsenoT monacemTa ZiriTadi ricxviTi maxasiaTeblebi me-2
leqciidan. eseni iyo SerCeviTi saSualo da SerCeviTi dispersia:
n
x =

=
n
i
i
x
n
1
1
da
2
n
s =

=

n
i
n i
x x
n
1
2
) (
1
1
. (7.1)
radgan x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
ricxvebs ganvixilavT rogorc X
1
, X
2
,..., X
n
SemTxvev-
iTi sidideebis gaTamaSebis Sedegebs, bunebrivia, SerCeviTi saSualo da
SerCeviT dispersiac ganvixiloT rogorc Sesabamisad
n
X =

=
n
i
i
X
n
1
1
da
2
n
S =

=

n
i
n i
X X
n
1
2
) (
1
1
(7.2)
SemTxveviTi sidideebis gaTamaSebis Sedegebi (realizaciebi). sailust-
raciod moviyvanoT Semdegi
magaliTi7.4. cxrilSi mocemulia n = 10 moculobis xuTi SerCe-
va: dakvirvebebi axalSobilTa wonebze unciebSi (1unc.=28.35g) da Sesa-
bamisi saSualoebi da standartuli gadaxrebi:
SerCeva
individi 1 2 3 4 5
1 97 177 97 101 137
2 117 198 125 114 118
3 140 107 62 79 78
4 78 99 120 120 129
5 99 104 132 115 87
6 148 121 135 117 110
7 108 148 118 106 106
8 135 133 137 86 116
82
9 126 126 126 110 140
10 121 115 118 119 98
10
x
116.90 132.80 117.00 106.70 111.90
10
s
21.70 32.62 22.44 14.13 20.46
SeviswavloT (7.2) formulebiT ganmartebuli SemTxveviTi sidi-
deebis albaTuri Tvisebebi, pirvel rigSi ki - maTi ricxviTi maxasiaT-
eblebi. daviwyoT
n
X -is ganxilviT.
7.2.1. populaciis saSualos wertilovani Sefaseba.
maTematikuri lodinisa da damoukidebel SemTxveviT sidideTa
jamis dispersiis Tvisebebis gaTvaliswinebiT miviRebT, rom
E
n
X = EX EX
n
n
i
i
=
=1
1
= da D
n
X =
n
DX n
n
DX
n
n
i
i
2
2
1
2
1 1 o
= =
=
, (7.3)
saidanac vxedavT, rom
n
X -is saSualo (maTematikuri lodini) emTxveva
populaciis ucnob parametrs, xolo dispersia o
2
/n ki n -is zrda-
sTan erTad miiswrafis nulisaken, rac imaze metyvelebs, rom
n
X Sem-
TxveviTi sidide saSualod axlosaa ucnobi parametris ricxviT
mniSvnelobasTan. maSasadame, misi konkretuli realizaciis ricxviTi
mniSvnelobac
n
x =

=
n
i
i
x
n
1
1
axlos unda iyos parametris imave mniSvne-
lobasTan. es magaliTi naTlad gviCvenebs ucnobi parametrisaTvis Sef-
asebis agebis gzas: ganawilebis ucnobi parametris Sinaarsidan gamomd-
inare (maTematikuri lodinia is, dispersia, mediana, moda, Tu kidev
sxva rame), avagoT misi SerCeviTi maxasiaTebeli da am ukanasknelSi,
rogorc SerCeviTi mniSvnelobebis funqciaSi CavsvaT x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
-is Se-
sabamisi X
1
, X
2
,..., X
n
SemTxveviTi sidideebi; miRebul SemTxveviT sidid-
es vuwodoT ucnobi parametris Sefaseba, xolo mis realizacias konk-
retuli gaTamaSebisaTvis ucnobi parametris miaxloebiTi mniSvnel-
oba.
sabolood, Sefasebis sqema aseTnairad gamoiyureba:
a) mocemulia ricxviTi monacemebi x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
;
b) Cven maT SevusabamebT damoukidebel erTnairad ganawilebul
X
1
, X
2
,..., X
n
SemTxveviTi sidideebs, romelTa ganawilebis funqcia
F
X
(x;u) (an ganawilebis simkvrive f
X
(x;u)) damokidebulia ucnob u param-
etrze (populaciis parametrze);
g) vagebT parametris SerCeviT analogs, anu x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
argumen-
tebis raime funqcias T(x
1
, x
2
,..., x
n
) da ucnobi u parametris Sefasebad
vacxadebT SemTxveviT sidides
n
u
~
T(X
1
, X
2
,..., X
n
).
83
davsvaT axla aseTi SekiTxva: rogori unda iyos T funqcia, rom
n
u
~
aRmoCndes u parametris kargi Sefaseba?
rogorc SerCeviTi saSualos magaliTma dagvanaxa, erT-erTi ka-
rgi Tviseba aris Sefasebis e.w. gadauadgilebadobis (Caunacvleblob-
is) Tviseba.
gansazRvra 7.1. ucnobi u parametris
n
u
~
Sefasebas ewodeba gada-
uadgilebadi anu Caunacvlebeli, Tu:
E
n
u
~
= u, an rac igivea, E(
n
u
~
- u) = 0, (7.4)
sxva sityvebiT, rom vTqvaT, saSualod zustad unda vafasebdeT Sesaf-
asebel parametrs da Sefasebis dros ar unda vuSvebdeT sistematur
Secdomebs.
SefasebaTa meore aranakleb mniSvnelovani Tviseba aris e.w. Zal-
debulobis (Zalmosilebis) Tviseba.
gansazRvra 7.2. ucnobi u parametris
n
u
~
Sefasebas ewodeba Zal-
debuli anu Zalmosili, Tu nebismieri 0 c > ricxvisaTvis:
didia roca n P
n
, 0 } |
~
{| ~ > c u u . (7.5)
Sinaarsobrivad, Zaldebuloba niSnavs imas, rom rac ufro meti
monacemiT xdeba ucnobi parametris Sefaseba, miT ufro naklebia Sansi
Sefaseba gadaixaros Sesafasebeli sidididan ragind mcire c-ze ufro
metad, anu Sefaseba TandaTan stabilurdeba. gavixsenoT am situaciis
Sesabamisi 4.1 magaliTi aSS-Si axalSobilebis Sesaxeb:
kalendaruli
dro
dabadebuli
biWebis raod.
axalSobilTa
saerTo raod.
fardobiTi
sixSire
1965 1 927 054 3 760 358 0.51247
1965-1969 9 219 202 17 989 361 0.51248
1965-1974 17 857 857 34 832 051 0.51268
Tu Sesafasebel parametrad miviCnevT biWis dabadebis p albaT-
obas, maSin axalSobilTa saerTo raodenobis zrdasTan erTad, biWebis
raodenoba ise izrdeba, rom fardobiTi sixSire stabiluri xdeba da
adgili aqvs e.w. did ricxvTa kanons:
( )
0,
n A
P p n
n
c

> ~
`
)
roca didia , (7.6)
sadac A aRniSnavs biWis dabadebis xdomilobas, xolo n(A) biWebis
raodenobaa n axalSobils Soris.
davubrundeT, gadauadgilebad Sefasebebs da davsvaT aseTi Seki-
Txva: ramdenad arsebiTia Sefasebis gadauadgilebadoba? sakiTxis ase
dasma imiTaa ganpirobebuli, rom populaciis parametris
n
X =

=
n
i
i
X
n
1
1
Sefasebis msgavsad, gadauadgilebadia magaliTad, yvela
84
e.w. Sewonili, anu

=
=
n
i
i i n
X c
1
~
u saxis Sefasebac, romelTaTvisac
1
1
=
=
n
i
i
c . marTlac, u = = =

= =
n
i
i
n
i
i i n
c EX c E
1 1
~
. maSin ratom vamjob-
ineT yvela aseT Sefasebas iseTi, romlisaTvisac c
1
= c
2
== c
n
=1/n?
saqme imaSia, rom Sefasebis standartuli Secdoma, romelic sazoga-
dod ganimarteba, rogorc
n
Du
~
,
n
X -s aqvs minimaluri

=
=
n
i
i i n
X c
1
~
u
saxis Sefasebebs Soris; kerZod, rogorc vnaxeT, D
n
X = o
2
/n, anu
n X D
n
/ o = , maSin, roca

=
=
n
i
i
n
c D
1
2
~
o u da 1
1
=
=
n
i
i
c pirobidan
ki gamomdinareobs, rom
n
c
n
i
i
1
1
2
>
=
. ase, rom Cven mivadeqiT Sefasebe-
bis sikargis yvelaze mZlavr kriteriums SefasebaTa efeqturobis
Tvisebas.
gansazRvra 7.3. gadauadgilebad SefasebaTa klasSi minimaluri
standartuli Secdomis mqone Sefasebebs efeqtur Sefasebebs uwodeben.
SevniSnoT, rom populaciis standartuli gadaxra da saSualos
standartuli Secdoma sxvadasxva obieqtia: pirveli maTgani axasiaTebs
X, xolo meore ki
n
X SemTxveviT sidides. rodesac populaciis stan-
dartuli gadaxra o ucnobia (rac praqtikaSi arc Tu iSviaTia), saSu-
alos standartul Secdomas n / o -s afaseben n S
n
/ sididiT.
magaliTi 7.5. gamovTvaloT saSualos standartuli Secdomis
Sefaseba 7.4 magaliTSi moyvanili me-3 SerCevisaTvis. gvaqvs:
09 . 7 10 / 44 . 22 10 /
10
~ = s .
mivyveT wertilovani Sefasebebis agebis zemoT moyvanil gzas da
vnaxoT rogoria ama Tu im populaciis Sesabamisi parametris wertil-
ovani Sefasebebi.
7.2.2 populaciis dispersiis wertilovani Sefaseba.
ganvixiloT raime populacia, romelsac gaaCnia o
2
dispersia.
rogorc me-2 leqciidan gvaxsovs, o
2
-is empiriuli analogi iyo
2
n
s .
amitom populaciis dispersiis wertilovan Sefasebad bunebrivia agve-
Ro
2
n
S =

=

n
i
n i
X X
n
1
2
) (
1
. magram mas rogorc dispersiis Sefasebas, Cven
vamjobineT sxva wertilovani Sefaseba, kerZod,
2
n
S =
85
=
n
i
n i
X X
n
1
2
) (
1
1
sidide. riTaa es ganpirobebuli? saqme imaSia, rom
2
n
S warmoadgens populaciis dispersiis gadauadgilebad Sefasebas,
2
n
S
ki ara. marTlac, gamovTvaloT
2
n
S -isa da
2
n
S -is maTematikuri lodine-
bi. gvaqvs:
E
2
n
S =
2 2 2
1 1
1 1
( )
1 1
n n
i n i n
i i
E X X EX n EX
n n
= =
| | | |
= =

\ . \ .

2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
( )
1 1
n
n n
EX
n n n
o
o o o
| |
= + = + =

\ .
.
maSasadame, sabolood,
E
2
n
S = o
2
. (7.7)
anlogiurad gamoiTvleba, rom
E
2
n
S = o
2
- o
2
/n. (7.8)
Sesabamisad, 7.1 gansazRvris Tanaxmad,
2
n
S warmoadgens populac-
iis o
2
dispersiis gadauadgilebad Sefasebas, xolo
2
n
S -s, rogorc o
2
-
is wertilovan Sefasebas, gaaCnia e.w. Canacvleba, romelic o
2
/n-is
tolia, rac marTalia umniSvneloa didi moculobis SerCevebisaTvis,
magram mniSvnelovania SerCevebis patara moculobebis dros.
7.3. centraluri zRvariTi Teorema.
aqamde Cven araferi gviTqvams populaciis ganawilebis konkret-
uli saxis Sesaxeb. Tu X ~ N(, o
2
), maSin rogorc normaluri SemTx-
veviTi sidideebis wrfivi kombinacia (gaixseneT me-5 leqcia)
n
X Sem-
TxveviT sididec ganawilebulia normalurad da rogorc (7.3) Tanaf-
ardobidan Cans,
n
X ~ N(, o
2
/n). magram rogoria
n
X SemTxveviT sidid-
is ganawileba, roca X araa normalurad ganawilebuli SemTxveviTi si-
dide? am kiTxvaze pasuxs iZleva albaTobis Teoriis erT-erTi umniSv-
nelovanesi Teorema, romelsac saxelad hqvia
centraluri zRvariTi Teorema: Tu X
1
, X
2
,..., X
n
damoukidebeli
erTnairad ganawilebuli SemTxveviTi sidideebia saSualoTi da dis-
persiiT o
2
, maSin nebismieri a da b ricxvebisaTvis, a<b:
didia. roca n a b b
n
X
a P
n
), ( ) (
/
u u ~
)
`
s
o

(7.9)
rogorc vxedavT, damoukidebel SemTxveviT sidideTa saSualo
ariTmetikulis asimptoturi ganawilebisaTvis araviTari mniSvneloba
ara aqvs Sesakrebebis ganawilebis kanons, mTavaria, rom maT gaaCndes
sasruli dispersia da aseT pirobebSi saSualo ariTmetikulis asimpt-
86
oturi ganawileba normaluria. am Teoremis gamoyenebis sailustraci-
od ganvixiloT Semdegi
magaliTi 7.6. 1000 axalSobilis saSualo wona aRmoCnda 112 un-
cia, xolo standartuli gadaxra 20.6 uncia. ras udris albaToba imi-
sa, rom SemTxveviT arCeuli 10 axalSobilis saSualo wona aRmoCndeba
98-dan 126 unciamde?
amoxsna. pirobis Tanaxmad, davaskvniT, rom = 112, n / o =
20.6/ 10 = 6.51. amitom centraluri zRvariTi Teoremis gamoyenebiT,
saZiebeli albaToba tolia
=
)
`
= s s
51 . 6
112 126
51 . 6
112
51 . 6
112 98
} 126 98 {
10
10
X
P X P
. 968 . 0 1 984279 . 0 2 1 ) 15 . 2 ( 2 ) 15 . 2 ( ) 15 . 2 ( = = u = u u =
7.4. binomuri populaciis p parametris wertilovani Sefaseba.
daviwyoT magaliTis ganxilviT.
magaliTi 7.7. Cven gvainteresebs avTvisebiani simsivniT daavadeb-
is done 45-54 ww. asakobrivi gjgufis qalebisaTvis. SemTxveviTi SerC-
evis meTodiT SerCeul iqna am asakis 5000 qali, romelTa Soris 28-s
aRmoaCnda es daavadeba. binomurad ganawilebuli SemTxveviTi sididis
Semotanis dros Cven ar gviTqvams, Tu rogor SeiZleba am sididis fo-
rmireba. dakvirvebis yoveli obieqtisaTvis (am SemTxvevaSi qalisaTvis),
SemoviRoT ormniSvnelobiani diskretuli SemTxveviTi sidide, romel-
ic Rebulobs mniSvnelobebs 1-sa (qali daavadebulia) da 0-s (qali
araa daavadebuli), albaTobebiT p da 1-p, Sesabamisad:
X
i 0 1
P 1-p p
sazogadod, aseT SemTxveviT sidideebs bernulis SemTxveviT si-
dideebs uwodeben. SevniSnoT, rom EX
i
= p da DX
i
= p(1-p).
advili saCvenebelia, rom

=
=
n
i
i
X X
1
(Cvens SemTxvevaSi daavadebu-
lTa saerTo raodenoba) SemTxveviT sidides aqvs binomuri ganawileba,
parametrebiT n da p. sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, binomuri SemTxveviTi
sidide warmodgeba rogorc jami damoukidebeli, erTnairad (bernulis
kanoniT) ganawilebuli SemTxveviTi sidideebisa. amitomacaa, rom
np p EX EX
n
i
n
i
i
= = =

= = 1 1
da ) 1 ( ) 1 (
1 1
p np p p DX DX
n
i
n
i
i
= = =

= =
.
pirveli tolobidan davaskvniT, rom
.
|
\
|
=

=
n
i
i
X
n
E p
1
1
, anu p pa-
rametrs aqvs garkveuli (bernulis) SemTxveviTi sidideebis saSualo
87
mniSvnelobis azri. amitom 7.2.1. punqtis msgavsad, p parametris wert-
ilovan Sefasebad iReben sidides:
n
X
X
n
p
n
i
i n
= =

=1
1
~
. (7.10)
radgan
n
p p
p D
n
) 1 (
~

= , am Sefasebis standartuli Secdoma cxa-
dia, tolia n p p / ) 1 ( sididisa.
maSasadame, sabolood, Tu X aris binomurad ganawilebuli SemT-
xveviTi sidide parametrebiT p da n, p parametris gadauadgilebad we-
rtilovan Sefasebas warmoadgens SerCevis proporcia =
n
p
~
X / n da mi-
si standartuli Secdomaa n p p / ) 1 ( .
Cveni magaliTisaTvis, X = 28, n = 5000, amitom =
n
p
~
28/5000 =
0.0056 standartuli Secdoma ki, tolia 0011 . 0 5000 / 9944 . 0 0056 . 0 = .
7.5. puasonis populaciis parametris wertilovani Sefaseba.
me-4 leqciidan gavixsenoT, rom X SemTxveviT sidides aqvs puas-
onis ganawileba, Tu

= = e
k
k X P
k
!
} { , sadac = i t. garda amisa,
gavixsenoT, rom EX = = i t, sadac t aRniSnavs dros, xolo i ki
drois erTeulSi momxdar (iSviaT) xdomilobaTa raodenobas. 5.4 maga-
liTSi cnobili iyo i-s mniSvneloba da misi saSualebiT viTvlidiT
garkveul albaTobebs. axla amocana piriqiTaa, mocemulia X SemTxvevi-
Ti sididis mniSvneloba. rogor SevafasoT i-s mniSvneloba? cxadia,
rom EX = i t, tolobidan i = EX / t = E(X / t) da maSasadame, Tu Cven avi-
RebT Sefasebis rolSi i
~
= X / t, maSin Ei
~
= i da i
~
aRmoCndeba i para-
metris gadauadgilebadi wertilovani Sefaseba. sailustraciod ganvi-
xiloT Semdegi
magaliTi 7.8. 1970 wels voburnSi (masaCusetsis Stati) aRiri-
cxa 12 leikemiis SemTxveva 19 wlamde mozardTa Soris. CavTvaloT,
rom 10 wlis ganmavlobaSi (1970-1979ww) mozardTa raodenoba iyo
mudmivi da iyo 12000-is toli. rogoria i parametris wertilovani
Sefaseba?
amoxsna. cxadia, rom 10 wlis ganmavlobaSi dagrovebul SemTxv-
evaTa saerTo raodenoba tolia 1200010 = 120000. amitom
i
~
= X/t = 12 /120000 = 0.0001.
amocanebi
1. monacemTa ori sxvadasxva populaciidan iReben erTnairi moc-
ulobis or SerCevas. Ppirveli populaciis standartuli gadaxraa
17.0, xolo meoris ki 30.0. rogor fiqrobT, romeli populaciidan
88
aRebuli SerCevis standartuli Secdoma iqneba meti. axseniT Tqveni
pasuxi.
2. populaciidan Rebulia ori SerCeva. Ppirveli SerCevis mocu-
lobaa 24, xolo meoris ki 10. rogor fiqrobT, romeli SerCevis saS-
ualo iqneba populaciis saSualosTan ufro axlos? ratom?
3. SegrZnebis Ziebis skalis mixedviT maRali qulis mqone adami-
anebs male bezrdebaT dawyebuli aqtivobebi da Zalian esaWiroebaT ax-
al da zogjer riskian saqmianobebSi CarTva. skalaze qulebi 10-dan
40-mde meryeobs. Aam skalaze 5 SerCeva gazomes. SerCevebi sxvadasxva
moculobis iyo.
SerCeva 1 2 3 4 5
moculoba 4 9 16 25 100
3.1 TiToeuli SerCevisaTvis gamoTvaleT SerCevis standartuli Secd-
oma;
3.2 ipoveT albaToba imisa, rom SerCevis saSualo 25-is toli an mas-
ze meti iqneba;
3.3. standartuli Secdomis da moculobis ra kavSiris ilustraciaa
es magaliTi.
4. qalaqis mosaxleobis 75%-is asaki 20 welze metia. ipoveT
albaToba imisa, rom 200 kacian SerCevaSi X metia 140-ze da naklebia
180-ze, sadac X ari 20 wels gadacilebuli adamianebis raodenoba,
5. nebismieri mocemuli wlisaTvis, im adamianebis proporcia,
romlebic dadian eqimTan aris 81%. Aaxalgazrdebis 78 kacian SerCev-
aSi, 56-ma aRniSna rom iyo misuli eqimTan bolo wlis ganmavlobaSi.
gansazRreT SerCevis jgufis warmomadgenlebi ufro naklebad dadian
Tu ara eqims, vidre mTeli populaciis warmomadgenlebi.
6. maRaroSi momuSave muSebis 30%-s aRmoaCnda sxvadasxva sunT-
qviTi problemebi. am muSebis asaki ZiriTadad iyo 50 weli. gamoTval-
eT, maRaroSi momuSave muSebis 80 kacian SemTxveviT SerCevaSi, ras ud-
ris albaToba imisa, rom 35 muSas eqneba sunTqvasTan dakavSirebuli
problemebi.
7. supermarketSi 200 naxevarStatSi myofi 18 wlis TanamSrom-
lebis saaTobrivi anazRaureba saSualod aris 9.50 dolari, xolo
standartuli gadaxra 0.5 dolari. iTvleba, rom am qveyanaSi zogadad
18 wlis naxevarStatiani TanamSromlebi saSualod iReben 10.30 dola-
ris odenobis saaTobriv anazRaurebas. Seesabameba Tu ara es Tvalsazr-
isi 200 kacian SerCevis Sedegs.
8. erT-erTi sadazRveo kompania dapirda Tavis momxmareblebs,
rom miRebuli saCivrebis 90%-s gadaWrida 30 dRis ganmavlobaSi. Se-
mTxveviT aRebul 75 saCivrian SerCevaSi 55 gadawyda 30 dReSi. arseb-
obs momxmareblis erTi jgufi, romelic gamoTqvams seriozul eWvs
kompaniis mier dasaxelebul saCivrebis odenobasTan dakavSirebiT. maTi
89
azriT sinamdvileSi, saCivrebis gacilebiT ufro naklebi proporciis
ganxilva xdeba 30 dReSi. Mmomxmareblebis da kompaniis mosazrebidan,
romels uWerT yvelaze ufro mxars?
9. erT erTi marketis yoveldRiuri saSualo Semosavali 1000
laria, standartuli gadaxra ki 650 lari. ras udris albaToba imisa,
rom Semosavali iqneba 1800-ze meti?
10. maRaziis mepatrone, axdens misi satvirTo manqanis mier mox-
marebuli sawvavis monitorings. qvemoT mocemuli monacemebi, aRweren
manqanis mier gavlili kilometrebis raodenobas TiToeul daxarjul
litrze (km/l):
11.6 10.7 11.5 10.1 9.6 10.9 11.0 10.6 8.5 9.7 9.3 8.6 8.2 10.6
10.8 9.4 8.5 10.1 9.6 11.1 11.6 8.5 11.6 9.3 10.3 10.2 10.5.
saSualod ramden kilometrs gadis aseTi tipis satvirTo manqana TiT-
oeul daxajul litrze?
11. gamoTvaleT evropeli moqalaqis wliuri Semosavlis SerCev-
iTi saSualo da Sesworebuli standartuli gadaxra, Tu qvemoT moyva-
nilia SemTxveviT SerCeuli 50 evropeli moqalaqis Semosavlebi gazo-
mili aTasobiT evroebSi:
84 14 31 72 26 49 252 104 31 8
3 18 72 23 55 133 16 29 225 138
85 24 391 72 158 4340 346 19 5 846
461 254 125 61 123 60 29 10 366 47
28 254 6 77 21 97 6 17 8 82
l e q c i a 7.
Tavi 8. SefasebaTa Teoria. intervaluri Sefasebebi.
8.1. Sesavali.
xSirad populaciis saSualos zusti mniSvnelobis magivrad, sa-
Wiroa misi sarwmuno (ndobis) intervalis ageba. Tu modeli normalu-
ria, maSin amis gakeTeba SesaZlebelia zustad, xolo winaaRmdeg SemTx-
vevaSi centralur zRvariT Teoremaze dayrdnobiT, SesaZlebelia miax-
loebiTi (asimptoturi) ndobis intervalis ageba. gavixsenoT 7.4 maga-
liTi. Tu Cven daveyrdnobiT pirvel SerCevas, maSin saSualos werti-
lovani Sefaseba iqneba
10
x = 116.9 uncia. Tumca es Sefaseba mocemuli
SerCevis safuZvelze saukeTesoa, Cven mainc ver viqnebiT darwmunebuli
imaSi, rom = 116.9, Tundac imitom, rom meore aseTive (imave cxril-
idan) SerCeva iZleva sul sxva Sedegs:
10
x = 132.8 uncias, mesame kid-
ev sxvas da a.S. aqedan Cans, rom aucilebelia -saTvis garkveuli int-
90
ervalis ageba, romelSic is didi albaTobiT moxvdeba. aseT interval-
ebs ndobis intervalebs uwodeben da maTi ageba SesaZlebelia rogorc
vTqviT, centraluri zRvariTi Teoremis gamoyenebiT.
8.2. populaciis saSualos intervaluri Sefasebebi.
ucnobi populaciis saSualos intervaluri Sefasebis ageba dam-
okidebulia imaze, cnobilia Tu ara populaciis standartuli gadaxr-
is ricxviTi mniSvneloba. amitom intervaluri Sefasebis agebis amocan-
as populaciis saSualosaTvis Cven or nawilad gavyofT: 1) roca o
parametris ricxviTi mniSvneloba cnobilia da 2) roca o parametris
ricxviTi mniSvneloba ucnobia.
8.2.1. saSualos intervaluri Sefaseba cnobili -s dros.
davuSvaT, populaciis o parametri cnobilia. maSin centraluri
zRvariTi Teoremis Tanaxmad,
n
X ~N(,o
2
/n), anu ( ) / ~
n
n X o
(0,1) N . normaluri ganawilebis kvantilebis cxrilebidan Cven SegviZ-
lia yoveli p ndobis albaTobis Sesabamisi z
p
kvantilis moZebna, aseve
iseTi u
p
ricxvis moZebna, rom
, , p u X n P
p n
= s o / ) ( , anu
, , p n u X n u X P
p n p n
= + s s o o .
p ndobis albaTobis mqone anu 100 p%-ian ndobis intervals uc-
nobi saSualosaTvis aqvs Semdegi saxe:
n u x n u x
p n p n
/ / o o + s s . (8.1)
advili misaxvedria kavSiri z
p
da u
p
sidideebs Soris:
u
p
= z
(1+p)/2
. (8.2)
ra Tqma unda, sasurvelia ndobis p albaToba iyos rac SeiZleba
didi, magram samwuxarod is ver iqneba 1-is toli, radgan Sesabamisi
ndobis intervali aRmoCndeba (-;+)-is toli da es ki arafris
mTqmelia populaciis saSualoze. amitom iqcevian Semdegnairad: afiqsi-
reben raime mcire o-s, magaliTad, o = 0.05 an o = 0.01 da iReben p = 1 -
o . normaluri ganawilebis cxrilebidan vpoulobT, rom u
0.95
= z
0.975
=
=1.96 da u
0.99
= z
0.995
= 2.58. Sesabamisad, (8.1) Tanafardobidan gamomdina-
re, 95%-ian ndobis intervals aqvs saxe:
n x n x
n n
/ 96 . 1 / 96 . 1 o o + s s , (8.3)
xolo 99%-iani ndobis intervali ki iqneba:
n x n x
n n
/ 58 . 2 / 58 . 2 o o + s s . (8.4)
SevniSnoT, rom ndobis albaTobis zrda iwvevs ndobis interva-
lis gafarToebas, rac bunebrivia.
91
davubrundeT 7.4 magaliTs, sadac o = 20.6. maSin n = 10-saTvis,
magaliTad, 95%-iani ndobis intervali ase gamoiyureba:
[
10
x -12.8,
10
x +12.8],
xolo cxrilSi mocemuli xuTi SerCevisaTvis, gveqneba:
10
x
116.90 132.80 117.00 106.70 111.90
inter.
[104.1,129.7] [120,145.6] [104.2,129.8] [93.9,119.5] [99.1,124.7]
gavixsenoT, rom 7.6 magaliTidan 1000 axalSobilis saSualo
wona aRmoCnda 112 uncia da -s Sefasebad aviReT = 112. rogorc
vxedavT, -s es mniSvneloba yvela intervalSia, garda meorisa. ra
daskvnis gakeTeba SeiZleba aqedan? Cven ver vityviT, rom 95%-iani al-
abaTobiT ucnobi moxvdeba romelime konkretul intervalSi, magram
risi Tqmac SegviZlia, is aris, rom yvela aseTi ndobis intervalebis
95% moicavs -s.
8.2.2. saSualos intervaluri Sefaseba ucnobi -s dros.
davuSvaT, axla, rom o parametris ricxviTi mniSvneloba ucno-
bia. maSin rogorc wina leqciaSi aRvniSneT, saSualos standartul
Secdomas n / o -s afaseben n S
n
/ sididiT. magram es sidide n / o -
sagan gansxvavebiT SemTxveviTi sididea. maSin sworia, Tu ara, rom
) 1 , 0 ( ~ / ) ( N S X n
n n
? pasuxia, rom ara. am SemTxvevaSi samarTlia-
nia Semdegi
Teorema 8.1. Tu X
1
, X
2
,..., X
n
damoukidebeli erTnairad normalu-
rad ganawilebuli SemTxveviTi sidideebia saSualoTi da dispersiiT
o
2
, maSin
n n
S X n / ) ( SemTxveviT sidides aqvs e.w. stiudentis anu
t -ganawileba Tavisuflebis xarisxiT n 1 (an ufro mokled, t (n 1)-
ganawileba).
SevniSnoT, rom es ganawileba, damokidebulia parametrze, rome-
lsac saxelad Tavisuflebis xarisxi hqvia (da ara saSualo an dispe-
rsia, rogorc es normalurad ganawilebul populaciaSi iyo). es ter-
mini dakavSirebulia Semdeg mosazrebasTan: gavixsenoT
2
n
S SemTxveviTi
sididis ganmarteba:
2
n
S =

=

n
i
n i
X X
n
1
2
) (
1
1
. rogorc vxedavT,
2
n
S war-
moadgens n cali SemTxveviTi sididis kvadratebis jams, magram TavisT-
avad es sidideebi, X
1
, X
2
,..., X
n
SemTxveviTi sidideebis damoukideblobis
miuxedavad, ar icvlebian damoukideblad, maT Soris arsebobs erTi
wrfivi kavSiri, kerZod,
0 ) (
1 1 1 1 1 1
= = = =

= = = = = =
n
i
i
n
i
i n
n
i
i
n
i
n
n
i
i
n
i
n i
X X X n X X X X X ,
92
rac imas niSnavs, rom Tu Cven viciT (X
1
-
n
X ), (X
2
-
n
X ), ..., (X
n
-
n
X ) SemT-
xveviTi sidideebidan romelime n 1 cali, maSin gamovTvliT me-n-sac.
amis gamo amboben, rom Tavisuflebis xarisxia n 1.
davubrundeT 8.1 Teoremas da misi saSualebiT avagoT ndobis in-
tervali normaluri populaciis saSualosaTvis ucnobi dispersiis Se-
mTxvevaSi. amisaTvis Cven ukve dagvWirdeba ara normaluri, aramed e. w.
t (n 1)-ganawilebis kvantilebi, romlebsac Cven t
n-1
,
p
simboloTi aRvn-
iSnavT da ganvsazRvravT kvantilebis zogadi (6.13) gansazRvris safuZ-
velze Semdegnairad:
P{ t (n 1) s t
n-1
,
p
} = p. (8.6)
aqve gvinda aRvniSnoT, rom es ganawileba, iseve rogorc standa-
rtuli normaluri ganawileba simetrulia 0-is mimarT da normaluri
ganawilebis kvantilebis msgavsad (gaixseneT (6.14)), adgili aqvs tol-
obas:
t
n-1
,
1- p
= - t
n-1
,
p
. (8.7)
amitomacaa, rom am ganawilebis kvantilebis cxrilebic mocemulia,
mxolod p > 0.5-saTvis.
sabolood, 8.2.1 SemTxvevis msgavsad, 8.1 Teoremaze dayrdnobiT,
t(n 1)-ganawilebis kvantilebis cxrilebidan Cven SegviZlia yoveli p
ndobis albaTobis Sesabamisi t
n-1
,
p
kvantilis moZebna, aseve iseTi x
p
ricxvis moZebna, rom
, , p x S X n P
p n n
= s / ) ( , anu
, , p n S x X n S x X P
n p n n p n
= + s s / / .
Sesabamisad, p ndobis albaTobis mqone anu 100 p%-ian ndobis
intervals ucnobi saSualosaTvis eqneba Semdegi saxe:
n s x x n s x x
n p n n p n
/ / + s s . (8.8)
wina SemTxvevis msgavsad, kavSiri t
n-1
,
p
da x
p
sidideebs Soris
Semdegnairia:
x
p
= t
n-1
,
(1+p)/2
. (8.9)
8.3. normaluri populaciis dispersiis intervaluri Sefaseba.
rogorc zemoT davinaxeT, populaciis dispersiis gadauadgileb-
ad wertilovan Sefasebas warmoadgens SerCeviTi dispersia. magram ro-
gor avagoT populaciis dispersiis intervaluri Sefaseba? amisaTvis
dagvWirdeba
2
n
S =

=

n
i
n i
X X
n
1
2
) (
1
1
SemTxveviTi sididis ufro sruly-
ofili daxasiaTeba, vidre mxolod misi maTematikuri lodinis codnaa.
es xerxdeba normalurad ganawilebuli populaciisaTvis (ufro zust-
93
ad, normaluri X
1
, X
2
,..., X
n
SemTxveviTi sidideebisaTvis). kerZod, Sem-
oviRoT Semdegi
gansazRvra 8.1. Tu X
1
, X
2
,..., X
n
~ N(0,1) da isini damoukidebelia,
maSin

=
n
i
i
X
1
2
SemTxveviTi sidide ganawilebulia e.w.
2
ganawilebis kan-
oniT, Tavisuflebis xarisxiT n (anu gvaqvs e. w.
2
(n)-ganawileba).
normaluri da t()-ganawilebisagan gansxvavebiT
2
()-ganawileba
(an rac igivea,
2
() SemTxveviTi sidide) dadebiT naxevarRerZzea Tavm-
oyrili da is asimetrulia. misi ricxviTi maxasiaTeblebia: E
2
() = v,
D
2
() = 2v, xolo roca v > 2, misi moda (anu simkvrivis maqsimumis
wertili) tolia m
0
= v - 2.
2
()-ganawilebis simkvrives aqvs Semdegi
grafiki:
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
mivubrundeT ndobis intervalis agebis amocanas normalurad ga-
nawilebuli populaciis dispersiisaTvis. davuSvaT, X
1
, X
2
, ..., X
n
~
N(,o
2
), maSin rogorc viciT, (X
i
- )/o, i = 1, 2, , n SemTxveviTi sidid-
eebi ganawilebulia standartulad normalurad. amitom 8.1 gansazRvris
Tanaxmad:
) 1 ( ~
) (
), ( ~
) (
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2

= =
n
X X
n
X
n
i
n i
n
i
i
_
o
_
o

xolo .
aqedan gamomdinare davaskvniT, rom
) 1 ( ~
) 1 (
2
2
2
n
S n
n
_
o
. (8.10)
dasaxelebuli o-saTvis _
2
ganawilebis cxrilebidan vipovoT
2
2 / 1 , 1 o
_
n
da
2
2 / , 1o
_
n
kvantilebi. maSin 1- o ndobis albaTobis mqone
anu (1- o)100%-ian ndobis intervals eqneba Semdegi saxe:
v =1
v =2
v =4
94
[
2 2 2 2
1,1 / 2 1, / 2
( 1) / , ( 1) /
n n n n
n S n S
o o
_ _

]. (8.11)
8.4. binomuri populaciis p parametris intervaluri Sefaseba.
gavixsenoT, rom binomuri populaciis p parametris wertilovan
Sefasebas hqonda Semdegi saxe:
n
X
X
n
p
n
i
i n
= =

=1
1
~
,
n
p
~
warmoidgineba
rogorc damoukidebeli da erTnairad ganawilebuli SemTxveviTi sidi-
deebis jami. amitom centraluri zRvariTi Teoremis Tanaxmad
n
p
~
asim-
ptoturad normaluradaa ganawilebuli parametrebiT, p da p(1-p)/n, sa-
idanac Cven SegviZlia avagoT 1-o ndobis albaTobis mqone ndobis int-
ervali, romelic unda amoixsnas Semdegi utolobidan:
n p p z p p n p p z p
n n
/ ) 1 (
~
/ ) 1 (
~
2 / 1 2 / 1
+ s s
o o
.
cxadia, araviTar siZneles ar warmoadgens p-s mimarT kvadratu-
li utolobis amoxsna, magram simartivis mizniT p(1-p)/n sidides uto-
lobis orive mxareSi cvlian misi SefasebiT n p p
n n
/ )
~
1 (
~
da sabolo-
od, 1-o ndobis albaTobis mqone anu (1-o )100%-ian ndobis intervals
eqneba Semdegi saxe:
] / )
~
1 (
~ ~
; / )
~
1 (
~ ~
[
2 / 1 2 / 1
n p p z p n p p z p
n n n n n n
+
o o
. (8.12)
gavixsenoT 7.7 magaliTi, sadac =
n
p
~
0.0056 standartuli Secd-
oma toli iyo 0011 . 0 5000 / 9944 . 0 0056 . 0 = . normaluri standartuli
ganawilebis kvantilebis cxrilebidan o = 0.05-saTvis, vpoulobT, rom
z
0.975
= 1.96, amitom 1-o = 0.95 ndobis albaTobis mqone ndobis interals
sabolood eqneba Semdegi saxe:
[0.0056-1.960.0011, 0.0056+1.960.0011] = [0.003444, 0.007756].
gansxvavebiT am saxis ndobis intervalisa, romelic normalur
aproqsimaciazea damyarebuli, iyeneben ndobis intervalis agebis e.w.
zust meTodsac, romlis mixedviTac, ndobis intervals p albaTobisa-
Tvis uwodeben iseT [p
1
, p
2
] intervals, romlis p
1
da p
2
sazRvrebic
akmayofileben Semdeg Tanafardobebs:
= = = >
n
x k
k n k k
n
p p C p p x X P ) 1 ( 2 / } | {
1 1 1
o ;
= = = s
x
k
k n k k
n
p p C p p x X P
0
2 2 2
) 1 ( 2 / } | { o
, (8.13)
sadac x aris binomuri SemTxveviTi sididis dakvirvebuli mniSvneloba.
8.5. puasonis ganawilebis parametris intervaluri Sefaseba.
95
puasonis ganawilebis i parametris 1-o ndobis albaTobis mqone
anu (1-o )100%-iani ndobis interali moicema [
1
/ t,
2
/ t] saxiT, sadac
1
da
2
akmayofilebs gantolebebs (SeadareT (8.13)-s):

=
= = = = >
1
0
1 1
1
1 1
!
1
!
2 / } | {
x
k
k
x k
k
e
k
e
k
x X P

o
,
= = = s
1
0
21
2
2
!
2 / } | {
x
k
k
e
k
x X P

o
. (8.14)
aq x aris xdomilobaTa dakvirvebuli raodenoba da t aris xdomiloba-
weliwadSi.
rogorc gvaxsovs, 7.8 magaliTSi x=12, t=120000. amitom puason-
is ganawilebis cxrilebidan vpoulobT 0.95 ndobis albaTobis mqone
ndobis Semdeg intervals -saTvis: [6.20, 20.96] da maSasadame, i-saTvis:
[6.20/120000, 20.96/120000] = [0.000052, 0.000175].
SevniSnoT, rom zogjer intervaluri Sefasebebis agebis amocana-
Si (iqneba es normaluri populaciis parametrebis, Tu binomuri da
puasonis ganawilebis parametrebis SemTxveva), saWiroa ara ormxrivi,
aramed calmxrivi (zeda an qveda) intervalebis ageba. aseT SemTxveveb-
Si (1-o) albaTobis ndobis intervalis asagebad, saWiroa ganawilebaTa
kvantilebis cxrilebSi movZebnoT ara o/2 da 1 - o/2 donis, aramed
Sesabamisad o da 1 - o donis kvantilebi.
magaliTad, binomuri ganawilebis zeda da qveda calmxriv ndob-
is intervalebs aqvT Semdegi saxeebi:
n p p z p p
n n n
/ )
~
1 (
~ ~
1
>
o
(8.15)
da
n p p z p p n p p z p p
n n n n n n
/ )
~
1 (
~ ~
/ )
~
1 (
~ ~
1
< + <
o o
an . (8.16)
analogiurad iqneba sxva ganawilebebis SemTxvevaSi.
amocanebi
1. cxrilSi mocemulia LVEF-ze (left ventricular ejection fraction)
dakvirvebis Sedegebi 27 pacientze, romlebsac aqvT kardiomiofatis
(cardiomyopathy) mwvave gafarToeba:
pacienti LVEF pacienti LVEF
1 0.19 15 0.24
2 0.24 16 0.18
3 0.17 17 0.22
4 0.40 18 0.23
5 0.40 19 0.14
6 0.23 20 0.14
7 0.20 21 0.30
8 0.20 22 0.07
96
9 0.30 23 0.12
10 0.19 24 0.13
11 0.24 25 0.17
12 0.32 26 0.24
13 0.32 27 0.19
14 0.28
1.1 gamoTvaleT LVEF-is saSualo;
1.2. gamoTvaleT LVEF-is standartuli gadaxra;
1.3. gamoTvaleT LVEF-is saSualos standartuli Secdoma.
2. imisaTvis, rom daedginaT wnevianoba 5-6 wlis bavSvebSi, erT-
erT dabaSi 30 bavSvs gauzomes sisxlis diastoluri wneva da aRmoCn-
da, rom saSualo wnevis sidide Seadgens 56.2 mm vwy.sv.-s, xolo stan-
dartuli gadaxra ki 7.9 mm vwy.sv.-s. saerTo erovnuli gamokvlevidan
ki, cnobilia, rom am asakis bavSvebSi saSualo diastoluri wnevis si-
dide Seadgens 64.2 mm vwy.sv.-s.
2.1. gvaqvs Tu ara safuZveli vamtkicoT, rom am dabaSi bavSvTa saSua-
lo diastoluri wneva gansxvavdeba saerTo-erovnuli gamokvlevidan
miRebuli saSualo diastoluri wnevis sididisagan?
2.2. ageT 95%-iani ndobis intervali diastoluri sisxlis wnevis
standartuli gadaxrisaTvis aRniSnul 30 monacemze dayrdnobiT.
3. erT-erTi hipoTezis mixedviT, glaukomaTi daavadebul adamia-
nebs aqvs saSualoze ufro maRali sisxlis wneva. amis dasadgenad 200
glaukomaTi daavadebuls gauzomes sisxlis wneva da aRmoCnda, rom sa-
Sualo wnevis sidide Seadgens 140 mm vwy.sv.-s, standaruli gadaxra ki
25 mm vwy.sv.-s.
3.1. aageT 95%-iani ndobis intervali glaukomaTi daavadebuli popul-
aciis saSualo sisxlis wnevis WeSmariti mniSvnelobisaTvis;
3.2. Tu cnobilia, rom imave asakis janmrTel adamianebs aqvT saSualo
sistoluri wneva 140 mm vwy.sv., maSin aris Tu ara kavSiri glaukomasa
da sisxlis sistolur wnevas Soris?
4. davuSvaT xdeba gonoreis axali preparatis gamocda. 46 paci-
ents misces wamlis dRiuri doza 4grami. erTi kviris Semdeg aRmoCn-
da, rom 6 avadmyofi kvlav daavadebulia. aRvniSnoT p-Ti wamlis uefe-
qtobis albaToba.
4.1. rogoria p-s saukeTeso wertilovani Sefaseba?
4.2. rogoria 95%-iani ndobis intervali p-saTvis?
4.3. davuSvaT, cvenTvis cnobilia, rom penicilin G-s 4.8 mega-erTeuli
dRiuri dozisaTvis uefeqtobis albTobaa 0.1. ra SegviZlia vTqvaT,
ori wamlis Sedarebaze?
5. mwevelebis populaciaSi yoveldRiurad moweuli sigaretis
raodenobis Sesafaseblad SemTxveviT SearCies 16 mweveli. SerCevis sa-
97
Sualo aRmoCnda 14 sigareti dReSi, standartuli gadaxra ki 3.1 siga-
reti dReSi.
5.1 gansazRvreT saSualos wertilovani Sefaseba;
5.2 ipoveT saSualos 95%-iani ndobis intervali.
6. 1996 wels centralur da samxreT amerikis 18 qveyanaSi, gam-
oiangariSes Sobadobis done yovel 1000 adamianze.
38 34 39 38 32 23 28 19 27
39 29 25 37 33 31 34 24 30
medianis da saSualos erTmaneTTan SedarebiT, ra daskvnis gakeTeba Se-
iZleba?
7. cnobilia, rom garkveuli medikamentis gamoyenebis Sedegad
pulsis ricxvi matulobs. cnobilia, rom pulsis ricxvis standartu-
li gadaxra aris 5 dartyma wuTSi. SerCeul iqna am medikamentis 30
momxmarebeli da maTTvis pulsis ricxvis saSualo aRmoCnda 104 dar-
tyma wuTSi. vipovoT 99%-iani ndobis intervali pulsis ricxvis WeS-
mariti saSualosaTvis. igulisxmeba, rom Sesabamisi ganawileba daaxl-
oebiT normaluria.
8. centraluri respublikuri saavadmyofos 84 sxvadasxva adgi-
las gazomili xmauris donis saSualo iyo 61.2 decibali, xolo Sesw-
orebuli standartuli gadaxra 7.9 decibali. aageT 95%-iani ndobis
intervali saavadmyofoSi xmauris donis realuri saSualosaTvis.
9. samSobiaro saxlis personals surs Seafasos axalSobilTa
wona. ra moculobis SerCeva iqneba saWiro, rom 90%-iani saimedoobiT
wonis realuri saSualo moTavsebuli iyos SerCevis saSualosagan 6
unciis (1 uncia = 28.3 gr) farglebSi, Tu cnobilia, rom axalSobil-
Ta wonis standartuli gadaxraa 8 uncia.
10. SemTxveviT SerCeuli 20 pacientisis 100 mililitr sisxl-
Si hemoglobinis saSualo Semcvleloba aRmoCnda 16 grami, xolo Ses-
worebuli standartuli gadaxra ki 2 gr. aageT 99%-iani ndobis int-
ervali WeSmariti saSualosaTvis.
11. meteorologma 15 civi haeris masivze dakvirvebis Sedegad
daadgina, rom maTi gavrcelebis saSualo siCqarea 18 mili/sT, xolo
standartuli gadaxra ki 2 mili/sT. aageT 95%-iani ndobis intervali
realuri saSualo siCqarisaTvis.
12. SemTxveviT arCeuli 6 spilos saSualo wonaa 12200 funti
(1 funti = 453.6 gr), xolo Sesworebuli standartuli gadaxra 200
funti. aageT 95%-iani ndobis intervali WeSmariti saSualosaTvis.
13. stresul situaciaSi myofi 6 qali guliscemis saSualo ri-
cxvi wuTSi Seadgens 115-s, xolo Sesworebuli standartuli gadaxra
aris 6. aageT 95%-iani ndobis intervali stresul situaciaSi myofi
qalebis guliscemis realuri saSualosaTvis.
98
14. moxucebis 500 momvlelisagan Semdgar SerCevaSi 60 mamaka-
cia. ipoveT 90%-iani saimedoobis ndobis intervali moxucebis movlis
programaSi monawile mamakacTa WeSmariti proporciisaTvis.
15. dedaqalaqis 100 SemTxveviT SerCeul mcxovrebs Soris 27
msuqania. aageT 90%-iani ndobis intervali dedaqalaqis mosaxleobaSi
msuqani adamianebis realuri proporciisaTvis.
16. jandacvis saministros monacemebiT monacemebiT 13-14 wlis
mozardebidan yoveli mexuTe zogjer eweva sigarets. mTeli qveynis ma-
sStabiT 13-14 wlis mozardebSi sigaretis mwevelebis proporciasTan
Sesadareblad ganaTlebis saministrom gamokiTxa 200 13-14 wlis sko-
lis moswavle da daadgina, rom maTi 23% zogjer eweva sigarets.
aageT 99%-iani ndobis intervali skolis 13-14 wlis moswavleebSi
sigaretis mwevelTa realuri proporcisasTvis da SeadareT is janda-
cvis saministros monacemebs.
17. garkveuli asakobrivi jgufis 100 gardacvlili adamianis
kvlevam aCvena, rom maTgan 25% gardaicvala kiboTi. aageT 98%-iani
ndobis intervali am asakobrivi jgufis gardacvlil adamianebSi im
adamianebis realuri proporciisaTvis, romlebic daiRupnen kiboTi.
18. medikoss surs 99%-iani saimedoobiTa da 2%-is sizustiT
Seafasos im qalebis realuri proporcia, romlebic Rebuloben vitam-
ins. adre Catarebuli kvlevis Tanaxmad 180 qalidan 25% Rebulobda
vitamins. a). ra moculobis unda iyos saWiro SerCeva? b). Tu ar iqne-
boda xelmisawvdomi SerCeviTi proporcia, maSin ra moculobis SerCev-
is aReba mogviwevda?
19. mkvlevars surs 90%-iani saimedoobiTa da 5%-is sizustiT
Seafasos im mamakacebis reluri proporcia, romelTa simaRle 5 fut-
sa (1 futi = 30.48 sm) da 5 diumze (1 diumi = 2.54 sm) naklebia. a).
ra moculobis SerCevaa amisaTvis aucilebeli, Tu cnobilia, rom 300
mamakacidan 30-is simaRle 5 futsa da 5 diumze naklebia; b). ra mocu-
lobis SerCeva unda aviRoT im SemTxvevaSi, roca ar iqneba xelmisawv-
domi SerCeviTi proporcia?
20. ipoveT TambaqoSi nikotinis Semcvlelobis dispersiisa da
standartuli gadaxrisaTvis 95%-iani ndobis intervali, Tu cnobi-
lia, rom 20 sigaretisagan Sedgenil SerCevaSi nikotinis Semcvlel-
obis Sesworebuli standartuli gadaxra 1.6 miligramis tolia.
21. 28 forToxlis Sesworebuli standartuli gadaxraa 0.34
sm. aageT 99%-iani ndobis intervali forToxlis diametris WeSmari-
ti standartuli gadaxrisaTvis.
22. 22 balaxis sakreWi manqanis mier 1 litri benziniT gakreW-
ili balaxis zolis sigrZis Sesworebuli SerCeviTi dispersiaa 2.6.
aageT 90%-iani ndobis intervali realuri dispersiisaTvis.
99
l e q c i a 8.
Tavi 9. hipoTezaTa Semowmeba. erTamokrefiani amocanebi.
9.1. Sesavali, ZiriTadi cnebebi.
wina leqciebSi (6 da 7) laparaki iyo populaciis ganawilebis
ucnobi parametrebis wertilovan da intervalur Sefasebebze. magram
xSirad mkvlevari winaswar gamoTqvams azrs ganawilebis parametris
Sesaxeb da Semdeg amowmebs, eTanxmeba Tu ara SerCeva parametrebis Ses-
axeb gamoTqmul ama Tu im winadadebas, romelsac mokled statistikur
hipoTezas uwodeben. statistikur hipoTezebi SeiZleba daiyos or Zir-
iTad tipad: e.w. parametruli da araparametruli hipoTezebi. pirvel
SemTxvevaSi hipoTeza gamoiTqmis populaciis ganawilebis parametrebis
Sesaxeb, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi, hipoTeza gamoiTqmis TviTon popul-
aciis ganawilebis an misi raime niSnis Sesaxeb. daviwyoT parametruli
hipoTezebis SeswavliT.
magaliTi 9.1. davuSvaT, Seiswavleba qolesterinis Semcveloba
im adamianebis memkvidreebSi, romlebic erTi wlis win gardaicvalnen
gulis daavadebiT. ganixileba ori hipoTeza:
1) qolesterinis saSualo done memkvidreSi 175 mg/dl-ia;
2) qolesterinis saSualo done memkvidreSi 175 mg/dl-ze metia;
rogorc vxedavT, aq ori gamonaTqvamia populaciis (guliT gar-
dacvlilTa memkvidreebSi qolesterinis done) saSualos Sesaxeb, ro-
mlidanac pirvels nulovan hipoTezas, anu ZiriTad (Sesamowmebel) hi-
poTezas uwodeben, xolo meores ki mis alternatiul (anu garkveuli
azriT sawinaaRmdego) hipoTezas, an mokled, alternativas uwodeben.
nulovan hipoTezas H
0
-iT aRniSnaven, xolo alternativas H
1
-iT. rat-
omaa ase mniSvnelovani hipoTezaTa Semowmebis (garCevis) amocana? Tun-
dac imitom, rom es aris swori gadawyvetilebis miRebis obieqturi
gza, subieqturi marCielobis sawinaaRmdegod, radgan es gza arsebiT-
ad eyrdnoba albaTobis Teoriis faqtebsa da maTematikurad mkacrad
dasabuTebul Teoremebs.
magaliTi 9.2. davuSvaT, Cven gvinda SeviswavloT moqmedebs Tu
ara dedis socialur-ekonomikuri mdgomareoba axalSobilis wonaze da
am mizniT davakvirdiT dabali socialur-ekonomikuri mdgomareobis
mqone 100 dedis pirmSos wonebs, saidanac gairkva, rom axalSobilTa
saSualo wona aris 115 uncia, xolo standartuli gadaxra ki 24 un-
cia, anu 115
100
= x da 24
100
= s . davuSvaT, CvenTvis cnobilia, rom mTe-
li populaciis masStabiT (magaliTad, milioni dakvirvebiT) axalSobi-
lTa saSualo wonaa = 120 uncia da o = 25 uncia. gvaqvs Tu ara am
monacemebis mixedviT safuZveli vamtkicoT, rom SerCevidan miRebuli
100
saSualo wonis maCvenebeli dabalia populaciis Sesabamis maCvenebelze,
anu dedis dabali socialur-ekonomikuri statusi uaryofiTad moqmed-
ebs axalSobilis wonaze?
am amocanis gadawyveta ucnobi saSualos intervaluri Sefasebis
meTodiT Cven ukve SegviZlia. amisaTvis davuSvaT, rom axalSobilTa
wonebi normaluradaa ganawilebuli ucnobi saSualoTi da standartu-
li gadaxriT o = 25 uncia. SerCeviT monacemebze dayrdnobiT, avagoT
95%-iani ndobis qveda intervali saSualosaTvis, anu < c saxis int-
ervali. aseTi ndobis intervals asagebad saWiroa 1 - o/2 donis kvant-
ili ormxrivi intervalisaTvis Seicvalos 1 - o donis kvantiliT. maS-
asadame, ndobis intervals eqneba saxe:
n z x
n
/
1
o
o
+ <

,
sadac o = 0.05 da z
1-o
= z
0.95
=1.645. Sesabamisad, miviRebT intervals:
< 115 + 1.64525/10, anu < 119.1125 .
rogorc vxedavT, es intervali ar Seicavs = 120-s da Sesabam-
isad, SerCeviT agebuli ndobis intervali marTlac sandoa ufro pat-
ara -saTvis da sabolood, vakeTebT daskvnas, rom dedis dabali so-
cialur-ekonomikuri statusi uaryofiTad moqmedebs axalSobilis wo-
naze.
magram am nawilSi Cveni mizania SevxedoT am da am tipis amocan-
ebs hipoTezaTa Semowmebis amocanis kuTxidan. amocana ase yalibdeba:
davuSvaT, rom normalurad ganawilebuli populaciisaTvis, ro-
mlis dispersia cnobilia o = 25, gamoTqmulia Semdegi nulovani da
alternatiuli hipoTeza:
H
0
: =
0
,
H
1
: <
0
.
Cven vuSvebT, rom samarTliani SeiZleba iyos mxolod erTi am
ori hipoTezidan, magram radgan nulovani hipoTeza ufro mniSvnelova-
nia CvenTvis, terminologiac maszea agebuli. kerZod, imis magivrad,
rom vTqvaT, monacemebis mixedviT H
0
hipoTezaa samarTliani, Cven
vambobT: monacemebis mixedviT H
0
hipoTezis uaryofis safuZveli ara
gvaqvs. piriqiT, Tu aRmoCndeba, rom monacemebis mixedviT H
1
hipoTe-
zis uaryofis safuZveli ara gvaqvs, maSin Cven calsaxad uarvyofT
H
0
hipoTezas. sakiTxis ase dayenebisas, hipoTezaTa garCevis procesSi
Cven SeiZleba ori tipis (gvaris) Secdoma davuSvaT da orive tipis
Secdomas Tavisi albaToba gaaCnia:
I gvaris Secdomis albaToba, es imis albaTobaa, rom uarvyoT
sinamdvileSi samarTliani (swori) H
0
hipoTeza.
II gvaris Secdomis albaToba, es imis albaTobaa, rom ar uarvy-
oT sinamdvileSi arasamarTliani (araswori) H
0
hipoTeza.
101
Cveni magaliTisaTvis, I gvaris Secdomis albaToba, iqneboda al-
baToba imisa, rom gveTqva axalSobilis wona naklebia 120 unciaze, ma-
Sin, roca is faqtiurad 120 unciis tolia, xolo II gvaris Secdomis
albaToba, iqneboda albaToba imisa, rom gveTqva axalSobilis wona
tolia 120 unciisa, maSin, roca is faqtiurad 120 unciaze naklebia.
ras niSnavs yovelive es? magaliTad, mogvivida I gvaris Secdoma, maSin
TiTqosda saWiro iqneboda damatebiTi saxsrebi bavSvebis gamojanmrTe-
lebisaTvis, magaram sinamdvileSi es saWiro ar aris. piriqiT, vTqvaT,
mogvivida II gvaris Secdoma, maSin TiTqosda yvelaferi karagadaa, mag-
ram am dros marTlac saWiroa damatebiTi xarjebis gaReba bavSvebis
janmrTelobis gasaumjobeseblad. ase, rom Cven vxedavT, rom I da II
gvaris Secdomebs da maT albaTobebs pirdapiri kavSiri aqvT fulTan.
I gvaris Secdomis albaToba o-Ti aRiniSneba da mas kriteriumis
mniSvnelovnebis dones uwodeben.
II gvaris Secdomis albaToba |-Ti aRiniSneba da 1 - | sidides
kriteriumis simZlavre hqvia. SevniSnoT, rom kriteriumis simZlavre
imis albaTobaa, rom uarvyoT sinamdvileSi araswori H
0
hipoTeza.
am leqciis danarCen nawilebSi Cven gadavalT uSualod hipoTe-
zaTa Semowmebis amocanebze, populaciebis sxvadasxva ganawilebebis
dros.
9.2. hipoTezis Semowmeba normaluri populaciis saSualosaTvis
cnobili dispersiis dros.
am amocanis erTi nawili Cven faqtiurad gavarCieT 9.2 magaliT-
is saxiT, Tumca ndobis intervalebis terminebSi da daaxloebiT Seviq-
meniT warmodgena imaze, Tu rogor unda CamovayaliboT igive saxis am-
ocanebi hipoTezebis terminebSi. amitom Cven ar gavacalkevebT aseTi
sami tipis amocanas da SevecdebiT paralelurad amovxsnaT isini maTi
msgavsebis gamo.
normalurad ganawilebuli populaciisaTvis, romlis dispersiis
ricxviTi mniSvneloba cnobilia, arsebobs nulovani hipoTezisa da al-
ternativis Camoyalibebis sami SesaZlebloba:
1) H
0
: =
0
H
1
: <
0
2) H
0
: =
0
H
1
: >
0
3) H
0
: =
0
H
1
: =
0
1) da 2) SemTxvevaSi amboben, rom saqme aqvT calmxriv alterna-
tivebTan, xolo 3)-Si ki ormxriv alternativasTan.
amocanis gadasaWrelad, samive SemTxvevaSi asaxeleben I gvaris
Secdomis o albaTobas. es is albaTobaa rogor Secdomazec Tanaxma
unda viyoT samarTliani hipoTezis uaryofis SemTxvevaSi. radgan saqme
SemTxveviTobas exeba, ar SeiZleba, rom o iyos 0-is toli. gavixsenoT,
102
Tundac 9.2 magaliTi da davuSvaT, rom o = 0. maSin normaluri ganaw-
ilebis kvantilebis cxrilebidan z
1-o
= z
1
= da n z x
n
/
1
o
o
+ <

=
= , anu miviRebdiT, rom < , rac arafris mTqmelia -s Sesaxeb.
magram miuxedavad amisa, ra Tqma unda, gvinda rom o iyos SesaZleblad
mcire. ase, rom asaxeleben raime mcire o-s, ise rom o > 0, magaliTad,
o = 0.05, o =0.01.
samive SemTxvevaSi saWiroa gadawyvetilebis miRebis wesis anu
e.w. statistikuri kriteriumis ageba: rodis uarvyoT da rodis ara
nulovani hipoTeza. statistikuri kriteriumis ageba sazogadod, arse-
biTadaa damokidebuli imaze, Tu ris mimarTaa gamoTqmuli nulovani
hipoTeza (Cvens SemTxvevaSi esaa normaluri ganawilebis saSualo )
da gulisxmobs iseTi kritikuli (sakritiko) aris agebas, romelSic
SerCveiTi saSualos (radgan nulovani hipoTeza gamoTqmulia popula-
ciis saSualos Sesaxeb da misi saukeTseo wertilovani Sefaseba
swored SerCeviTi saSualoa) moxvedra nulovani hipoTezis gakritik-
ebas, anu uaryofas niSnavs. maSasadame, mTavari amocanaa kritikuli ar-
is ageba. rogori unda iyos kritikuli are? cxadia, rom kritikuli
aris albaToba hipoTezis samarTlianobis SemTxvevaSi unda emTxveodes
(yovel SemTxvevaSi, ar aRematebodes) dasaxelebul mcire o-s da swo-
red es udevs safuZvlad kritikuli aris agebas. Sinaarsobrivad gasag-
ebia, rom Tu gansxvaveba wertilovan Sefasebasa da Sesafasebel popu-
laciis parametrs Soris sagrZnobia, maSin albaT nulovani hipoTeza
ar unda iyos swori. amitom saSualos Sesaxeb hipoTezis Semowmebis
amocanaSi, azriania vilaparakoT
0

n
x sxvaobis ricxviT mniSvnelo-
baze da Sesabamisad,
0

n
X sxvaobaze, rogorc SemTxveviT sidideze.
gasagebia, rom Tu
n
x dasaSvebze mcirea, maSin 1) amocanaSi nulovani
hipoTeza unda uarvyoT; aseve Tu
n
x dasaSvebze didia, maSin ukve 2)
amocanaSi unda uarvyoT nulovani hipoTeza. rac Seexeba 3) amocanas,
am SemTxvevaSi nulovan hipoTezas uarvyofT maSin, roca
0

n
x iqne-
ba dasaSvebze didi. aRvniSnoT es dasaSvebi (kritikuli) mniSvnel-
obebi Sesabamisad, C
1
,M C
2
-iTa da C
3
-iT. maSin, rogorc vTqviT, kriti-
kul areebs aqvT Sesabamisad, Semdegi saxeebi:
1)
n
x < C
1
, 2)
n
x > C
2
da 3)
0

n
x > C
3
. (9.1)
maSasadame, Cveni amocana davida C
1
,M C
2
da C
3
ricxvebis povna-
ze. maT sapovnelad gavixsenoT, rom kritikuli aris albaToba hipoTe-
zis samarTlianobis SemTxvevaSi unda emTxveodes dasaxelebul o-s.
ase, rom saWiroa iseTi C
1
,M C
2
da C
3
ricxvebis povna, rom:
1) , , o = = s
0 1
| C X P
n
, 2) , , o = = >
0 2
| C X P
n
,
103
3) , , o = = >
0 3 0
| C X P
n
. (9.2)
rogorc viciT, normaluri populaciis SemTxvevaSi, nulovani
hipoTezis samarTlianobis dros (e.i., roca =
0
), o / ) (
0

n
X n
SemTxveviT sidides aqvs standartuli normaluri ganawileba. amitom
, , o o
o
= = s
0 0
| / ) ( z X n P
n
,
, , o o
o
= = >
0 1 0
| / ) ( z X n P
n
,
, , o o
o
= = >
0 2 / 1 0
| / | | z X n P
n
,
saidanac davaskvniT, rom:
1) C
1
= n z /
0
o
o
+ , 2) C
2
= n z /
1 0
o
o
+

= n z /
0
o
o
,
3) C
3
= n z /
2 / 1
o
o

.
sabolood, statistikuri kriteriumi (gadawyvetilebis miRebis
wesi) ase yalibdeba:
1) amocanaSi, Tu
n
x < n z /
0
o
o
+ , maSin o mniSvnelovnebis doniT
H
0
hipoTezas uarvyofT, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi amis safuZveli ara
gvaqvs;
2) amocanaSi, Tu
n
x > n z /
0
o
o
, maSin o mniSvnelovnebis doniT
H
0
gvaqvs;
3) amocanaSi, Tu
0

n
x > n z /
2 / 1
o
o

, maSin o mniSvnelovnebis
doniT H
0
hipoTezas uarvyofT, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi amis safuZveli
ara gvaqvs.
sailustraciod davubrundeT 9.2 magaliTs da vnaxoT rogor
muSaobs Cvens mier Camoyalibebuli statistikuri kriteriumi.
rogorc gvaxsovs, 115
100
= x , o = 25 da saqme exeboda 1) tipis
amocanas: H
0
: = 120, H
1
: < 120.
vTqvaT, o = 0.05. maSin vinaidan z
0.05
= -z
0.95
= -1.645, Cveni krite-
riumidan n z /
0
o
o
+ = 120 1.64525/10 = 120 4.1125 = 115.8875.
radgan 115
100
= x <115.8875, amitom o = 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis doniT H
0
hipoTezas uarvyofT. rogorc vxedavT, pasuxi igive darCa, rac 9.2 ma-
galiTSi.
9.3. hipoTezis Semowmeba normaluri populaciis saSualosaTvis
ucnobi dispersiis dros.
amocanebis dasma xdeba zustad iseve, rogorc 9.2 punqtSi: Sesa-
mowmebelia nulovani hipoTeza H
0
: =
0
sami sxvadasxva tipis al-
ternativisaTvis:
104
1) H
1
: <
0
; 2) H
1
: >
0
; 3) H
1
: =
0
.
kritikuli areebis dasadgenad, rogorc wina punqtSi vnaxeT,
arsebiTi iyo T
n
o / ) (
0

n
X n SemTxveviT sididis ganawileba,
romelsac mokled kriteriumis statistikas uwodeben. kerZod, cnobi-
li o-s dros mas hqonda standartuli normaluri ganawileba. gavixse-
noT, rom ucnobi o -s SemTxvevaSi ndobis intervalis agebis amocanaSi
n / o saSualos standartul Secdomas vcvlidiT n S
n
/ sididiT.
moviqceT axlac ase da kriteriumis statistikad ganvixiloT SemTxve-
viTi sidide: T
n

n n
S X n / ) (
0
. maSin Teorema 8.1-is Tanaxmad, am
SemTxveviT sidides aqvs t(n-1)-ganawileba. danarCeni msjeloba wina pu-
nqtSi moyvanili msjelobis analogiuria. gansxvaveba imaSia, rom norm-
aluri standartuli ganawilebis kvantilebi Seicvleba t(n-1)-ganawil-
ebis Sesabamisi kvantilebiT da sabolood, statistikuri kriteriumi
(gadawyvetilebis miRebis wesi) ase Camoyalibdeba:
1) amocanaSi, Tu
n
x < n s t
n n
/
, 1 0
+
o
, maSin o mniSvnelovnebis don-
iT H
0
gvaqvs;
2) amocanaSi, Tu
n
x > n s t
n n
/
, 1 0

o
, maSin o mniSvnelovnebis don-
iT H
0
gvaqvs;
3) amocanaSi, Tu
0

n
x > n s t
n n
/
2 / 1 , 1

o
, maSin o mniSvnelovnebis
doniT H
0
ara gvaqvs.
am kriteriumis gamoyenebis sailustraciod kvlav mivubrundeT
9.2 magaliTs, sadac 115
61
= x da 24
61
= s . vTqvaT, o = 0.05. maSin rad-
gan t
60, 0.05
= -t
60, 0.95
= -1.671, Cveni kriteriumidan n s t
n n
/
, 1 0
+
o
=120
1.67124/7.82 = 120 5.04 = 114.96. radgan 115
61
= x >114.96, o = 0.05 mniS-
vnelovnebis doniT H
0
hipoTezis uaryofis safuZveli ara gvaqvs.
9.4. kriteriumis simZlavris gamoTvla.
rogorc 9.2 da 9.3 punqtebidan davinaxeT, gansxvaveba maT Sor-
is mxolod kriteriumis statistikis ganawilebaSi iyo, danarCeni
msjelobebi zustad emTxveoda erTmaneTs. igive SeiZleba iTqvas am pun-
qtSi Sesaswavl sakiTxzec. amitom Cven mxolod 9.2 punqtisaTvis gam-
oviTvliT kriteriumis simZlavreebs. rogorc gvaxsovs, kriteriumis
simZlavre ganisazRreba rogorc araswori nulovani hipoTezis uaryo-
fis albaToba. magram araswori hipoTeza, avtomaturad niSnavs alter-
nativis samarTlianobas, xolo nulovan hipoTezas uarvyofdiT maSin,
105
roca kriteriumis statistika Rebulobda garkveul mniSvnelobas kri-
tikuli aridan. amitom kriteriumis simZlavre SeiZleba ganvsazRvr-
oTOrogorc kritikuli aris alternatiuli albaToba. amitom H
0
: =
=
0
nulovan hipoTezasTan davazustoT alternativa Semdegnairad H
1
:
=
1
<
0
da gamovTvaloT kritikuli aris alternatiuli albaToba,
anu kritikuli aris albaToba, roca samarTliania alternativa =
1
.
9.2 punqtidan gavixsenoT, rom calmxrivi marcxena kritikuli are ga-
nisazRreboda
n
x < n z /
0
o
o
+ utolobiT, romelic miviReT ganto-
lebidan:
, , o o
o
= = s
0 0
| / ) ( z X n P
n
.
amitom yovelive zemoTqmulis gamo kriteriumis simZlavre tolia
, ,
1 0
| / ) ( 1 o |
o
= s = z X n P
n
. (9.3)
magram alternativis samarTlianobis dros o / ) (
0

n
X n Se-
mTxveviT sidides ara aqvs standartuli normaluri ganawileba. am
dros standartulad normalurad ganawilebulia o / ) (
1

n
X n Sem-
TxveviT sidide. amitom (9.3) gadavweroT ase:
, ,
1 1 0 1
| / ) ( / ) ( 1 o o |
o
= + s = n z X n P
n
, (9.4)
saidanac sabolood davaskvniT, rom calmxrivi marcxena kriteriumis
simZlavre =
1
(<
0
) alternativis dros tolia:
, o |
o
/ ) ( 1
1 0
+ u = n z . (9.5)
analogiuri msjelobiT SegviZlia davaskvnaT, rom calmxrivi ma-
rjvena kriteriumis simZlavre =
1
(>
0
) alternativis dros tolia:
, o |
o
/ ) ( 1
0 1
+ u = n z . (9.6)
dabolos, ormxrivi kriteriumis simZlavre =
1
(=
0
) alternativis
dros tolia:
, o |
o
/ | | 1
0 1 2 /
+ u = n z . (9.7)
Tu davakvirdebiT (9.5), (9.6) da (9.7) formulebs, aRmovaCenT
Semdeg efeqtebs, romlebic moqmedebs kriteriumis simZlavreze:
a) Tu o mcirdeba, maSin z
o
(
/ 2
z
o
) mcirdeba da u funqciis zrdadobis
gamo mcirdeba simZlavre;
b) SerCevis moculobis zrda iwvevs simZlavris gazrdas;
g) rac ufro didia gansxvaveba parametris hipoTetur da altrnati-
ul mniSvnelobebs Soris, miT ufro didia simZlavre;
d) rac ufro didia standartuli gadaxra, miT ufro mcirea simZlav-
re.
TiToeuli es efeqti Cven SegviZlia davinaxoT magaliTze. sail-
ustraciod gavarCioT 9.1 magaliTiis Semdegi modifikacia:
106
magaliTi 9.3. vTqvaT, Seiswavleba qolesterinis Semcveloba im
adamianebis memkvidreebSi, romlebic erTi wlis win gardaicvalnen gu-
lis daavadebiT. davuSvaT, cnobilia, rom qolesterinis done normal-
uradaa ganawilebuli da standartuli gadaxra 50-is tolia. 10 bavSv-
is monacemebis mixedviT, qolesterinis saSualo done aRmoCnda 200
mg/dl. Cven gvainteresebs kriteriumis simZlavre nulovani hipoTezisa:
qolesterinis saSualo done memkvidreebSi 175 mg/dl-ia, alternativ-
is mimarT, rom qolesterinis saSualo done ufro maRalia da Seadg-
ens 190 mg/dl-s.
ganvixiloT ori SemTxveva, o = 0.05, o = 0.01. radgan saqme gvaqvs
marjvena calmxriv kriteriumTan, amitom simZlavris gamosaTvlelad
orive SemTxvevaSi viyenebT (9.6) formulas, romlis mixedviTac
, o |
o
/ ) ( 1
0 1
+ u = n z . roca o =0.05, maSin z
0.05
= - z
0.95
= -1.645.
amitom gvaqvs
1 - | = u(-1.645 + 3.17(190-175)/50) = u(-0.694) =
= 1- u(0.694) ~ 1-0.755 = 0.245.
roca o = 0.01, z
0.01
= - z
0.99
= -2.326 da amitom
1 - | = u(-2.326 + 3.17(190-175)/50) = u(-1.375) =
= 1- u(1.375) ~ 1-0.9158 = 0.0842.
rogorc vxedavT, kriteriumis simZlavrem marTlac daiklo.
xSirad, rodesac calkeuli eqsperimentis Catareba sakmaod Zvi-
ri jdeba, saWiroa eqsperimentis winaswar dagegmva da imis gansazRvra
Tu cdebis ra minimaluri raodenoba iqneba sakmarisi kriteriumis das-
axelebuli simZlavris misaRwevad mocemuli mniSnelovnebis donis
dros. (9.5), (9.6) da (9.7) formulebi iZleva amis saSualebas da amas
Cven momdevno punqtSi vnaxavT.
9.5. SerCevis minimaluri moculobis gansazRvra.
Cveni amocana am punqtSi ase yalibdeba: rogori unda iyos SerC-
evis moculoba, rom mocemuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis kriteri-
umis simZlavre meti an toli iyos winaswar dasaxelebul 1- | ricxv-
ze?
rogorc (9.5), (9.6) da (9.7) formulebidan gvaxsovs kriteriu-
mis simZlavreebi Sesabamisad tolia:
, o
o
/ ) (
1 0
+ u n z , (9.5
)
, o
o
/ ) (
0 1
+ u n z , (9.6
)
, o
o
/ | |
0 1 2 /
+ u n z . (9.7
)
axla Cveni amocanaa amovxsnaT Semdegi saxis utolobebi:
107
, | o
o
> + u 1 / ) (
1 0
n z , , | o
o
> + u 1 / ) (
0 1
n z ,
, | o
o
> + u 1 / | |
0 1 2 /
n z .
cxadia, rom es utolobebi Sesabamisad eqvivalenturia Semdegi
utolobebisa:
| o
o

> +
1 1 0
/ ) ( z n z ,
| o
o

> +
1 0 1
/ ) ( z n z ,
| o
o

> +
1 0 1 2 /
/ | | z n z ,
saidanac calmxrivi alternativebis dros miviRebT, rom:
2
1 0
2
1 1
2
) /( ) ( o
| o
+ >

z z n , (9.8)
xolo ormxrivi alternativisaTvis ki gveqneba:
2
1 0
2
1 2 / 1
2
) /( ) ( o
| o
+ >

z z n . (9.9)
sailustraciod ganvixiloT 9.3 magaliTis Semdegi modifikacia.
adamianebis memkvidreebSi, romlebic erTi wlis win gardaicvalnen gu-
lis daavadebiT. davuSvaT, cnobilia, rom qolesterinis done normal-
uradaa ganawilebuli da standartuli gadaxra 50-is tolia. nulova-
ni hipoTezaa: qolesterinis saSualo done memkvidreebSi 175 mg/dl-ia,
alternativis mimarT, rom qolesterinis saSualo done ufro maRa-
lia da Seadgens 190 mg/dl-s. Cveni amocanaa ganvsazRvroT, Tu SerCev-
is ra minimaluri moculoba iqneba sakmarisi 5%-iani mniSvnelovnebis
donis dros 90%-iani simZlavris misaRwevad.
amoxsna. radgan saqme gvaqvs marjvena calmxriv kriteriumTan,
amitom viyenebT (9.8) formulas, saidanac
= + >

2
1 0
2
1 1
2
) /( ) ( o
| o
z z n
1 . 95 225 / ) 28 . 1 645 . 1 ( 2500 ) 175 190 /( ) ( 50
2 2 2
9 . 0 95 . 0
2
= + = + = z z .
Sesabamisad, davaskvniT, rom saWiroa 96 dakvirveba.
9.6. hipoTezis Semowmeba normaluri populaciis
dispersiisaTvis (ormxrivi alternativa).
Cveni amocanaa SevamowmoT martivi hipoTeza normaluri popula-
ciis dispersiis Sesaxeb, anu
H
0
: o
2
=
2
0
o hipoTeza H
1
: o
2
=
2
0
o alternativis winaaRmdeg.
dispersiisaTvis ndobis intervali igeboda im faqtze dayrdnob-
iT, rom ) 1 ( ~
) 1 (
2
2
2
n
S n
n
_
o
, Tuki
2
n
S warmoadgens SerCeviT dispersias
agebuls damoukidebeli normaluri SemTxveviTi sidideebiT, romelTa
dispersiaa o
2
(me-7 leqcia). amitom kriteriumis statistikad aviRoT
swored
2
0
2
/ ) 1 ( o
n
S n SemTxveviTi sidide, romelsac hipoTezis samarT-
108
lianobis dros aqvs
2
(n-1) ganawileba. statistikuri kriteriumi Sem-
degnairad Camoyalibdeba:
Tu dasaxelebuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis kriteriumis
statistikis ricxviTi mniSvneloba akmayofilebs pirobas
2
2 / 1 , 1
2
0
2 2
2 / , 1
/ ) 1 (
o o
_ o _

s s
n n n
s n , (9.10)
maSin H
0
hipoTezis uaryofis safuZveli ara gvaqvs. winaaRmdeg SemTxv-
evaSi mas uarvyofT.
9.7. hipoTezis Semowmeba binomuri populaciis p parametris
Sesaxeb (ormxrivi alternativa).
Cveni amocanaa SevamowmoT martivi hipoTeza binomuri populaci-
is p parametris (proporciis) Sesaxeb, anu
H
0
: p = p
0
hipoTeza H
1
: p = p
0
alternativis winaaRmdeg.
me-7 leqciis mixedviT,
n
p
~
= X / n SemTxveviTi sidide, sadac X
aRniSnavs binomur SemTxveviT sidides parametriT p, asimptoturad
normaluradaa ganawilebuli parametrebiT: = p da o
2
= p(1-p)/n. amit-
om kriteriumis statistikad viRebT
) 1 (
~
0 0
0
p np
p p
T
n
n
SemTxveviT sid-
ides, romelic hipoTezis samarTlianobis dros asimptoturad standa-
ruli normaluria da statistikuri kriteriumi zustad iseTive iqne-
ba, rogoric iyo saSualos Sesaxeb hipoTezis Semowmebis amocanaSi no-
rmaluri populaciisaTvis ormxrivi alternativis dros:
Tu dasaxelebuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis T
n
statistikis
dakvirvebuli mniSvneloba akmayofilebs pirobas
2 / 1
0 0
0
2 /
) 1 (
~
o o
s
s z
p np
p p
z
n
, (9.11)
maSin H
0
hipoTezis uaryofis safuZveli ara gvaqvs. winaaRmdeg SemTxv-
evaSi mas uarvyofT.
gamovTvaloT am kriteriumis simZlavre H
1
: p = p
1
= p
0
alterna-
tivis dros. 9.4 punqtSi Catarebuli msjelobis msgavsad, SegviZlia
davaskvnaT, rom kriteriumis simZlavre am alternativisTvis iqneba:
.
|
\
|
.
|
\
|
u = n
p p
p p
z
p p
p p
) 1 (
| |
) 1 (
) 1 (
1
0 0
1 0
2 /
1 1
0 0
o
| . 9.12)
9.5 punqtis analogiuri msjelobiT vpoulobT SerCevis minima-
luri moculobis formulas:
2
0 0
1 1
2 / 1 2 / 1
2
1 0
0 0
) 1 (
) 1 (
) (
) 1 (
.
|
\
|
>

p p
p p
z z
p p
p p
n
| o
. (9.13)
109
aRniSnuli kriteriumi damyarebulia binomuri ganawilebis norm-
alur aproqsimaciaze. es ki maSinaa SesaZlebeli, roca np
0
(1- p
0
) > 5.
zogjer ki, saWiroa hipoTezis Semowmeba, roca es piroba darRveulia.
amitom iyeneben hipoTezis Semowmebis zust meTodsac (gavixsenoT ndo-
bis intervalis agebis zusti meTodi binomuri ganawilebis parametri-
saTvis me-7 leqciidan).
hipoTezis Semowmebis amocanaSi, iTvlian e.w. p-mniSvnelobas,
romelic ase ganimarteba:
Tu x/n s p
0
, sadac x aris binomuri SemTxveviTi sididis dakvirv-
ebuli mniSvneloba, maSin
= = s =
x
k
k n k k
n
p p C p p x X P p
0
0 0 0
) 1 ( } | { 2 /
, 9.14)
xolo Tu x/n > p
0
, maSin
= = > =
n
x k
k n k k
n
p p C p p x X P p ) 1 ( } | { 2 /
0 0 0
. (9.15)
Tu p-s gamoTvlili mniSvneloba aRmoCndeba o -ze naklebia, maS-
in amboben, rom Sedegi (laparakia x-ze) statistikurad mniSvnelovania,
winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi is statistikurad umniSvneloa da nulovan
hipoTezas ar uaryofen.
am kriteriumis mniSvnelovnebis sailustraciod moviyvanoT
magaliTi 9.5. birTvuli energiebis qarxanaSi momuSave 55-64ww.
asakis mamakacTa Soris gardacvlili 13 mamakacidan 5-is gardacvalebis
mizezi aRmoCnda kibo. cnobilia, rom mamakacTa am asakobrivi jgufisa-
Tvis gardacvalebaTa 20% modis kibos garkveul formaze. aris Tu
ara qarxanaSi momxdari es Sedegi mniSvnelovani (da maSasadame, birTv-
uli energiebis qarxanaSi muSaoba saSiSi)?
amoxsna. Cveni amocanaa SevamowmoT H
0
: p = 0.2 hipoTeza, H
1
: p =
0.2 alternativis winaaRmdeg. gamovTvaloT np
0
(1-p
0
) = 130.20.8= 2.1. vi-
naidan 2.1<5, amitom normalur aproqsimacias ver gamoviyenebT. gamovT-
valoT x/n = 5/13 =0.38 > p
0
= 0.2. Sesabamisad, p-mniSvnelobis dasadgenad
viyenebT (9.15) formulas
.
|
\
|
= =

=
4
0
13
13
13
5
13
13
8 . 0 2 . 0 1 2 8 . 0 2 . 0 2
k
k k k
k
k k k
C C p
.
binomuri ganawilebis cxrilebidan n = 13 da p = 0.2-saTvis vpou-
lobT: P{X =0}=0.055, P{X =1}=0.1787, P{X =2}=0.268, P{X = 3}=0.2457,
P{X = 4}=0.1535, saidanac p = 2(1-(0.055+0.1787+0.268+0.2457+0.1535)) =
0.198.
radgan p = 0.198 > 0.05 davaskvniT, rom x = 5 Sedegi statistiku-
rad umniSvneloa, anu birTvuli energiebis qarxanaSi muSaoba saSiSi
ar aris.
110
9.8. hipoTezis Semowmeba puasonis populaciis parametris
Sesaxeb (mcire moculobis SerCevebisaTvis).
binomuri populaciis parametris Sesaxeb hipoTezis Semowmebis
msgavsad, mcire moculobis SerCevis SemTxvevaSi, aqac viyenebT p-mni-
Svnelobis meTods H
0
: =
0
hipoTezis Sesamowmeblad H
1
: =
0
alternativis winaaRmdeg.
Tu x s
0
, sadac x aris binomuri SemTxveviTi sididis dakvirveb-
uli mniSvneloba, maSin
= = s =
x
k
k
e
k
x X P p
0
0
0
0
!
} | { 2 /

, (9.16)
xolo Tu x >
0
, maSin
= = > =
1
0
0
0
0
!
1 } | { 2 /
x
k
k
e
k
x X P p

. (9.17)
Tu p-s gamoTvlili mniSvneloba aRmoCndeba o -ze naklebi, maS-
in amboben, rom Sedegi (laparakia x-ze) statistikurad mniSvnelovania,
winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi is statistikurad umniSvneloa da nulovan
hipoTezas ar uaryofen.
didi moculobis SemTxvevaSi aqac iyeneben normalur aproqsima-
cias, kerZod, im faqts, rom (X -
0
)
2
/
0
~ N
2
(0;1) ~ _
2
(1).
amocanebi
1. SC-s (serum-creatinine) donis saSualo mniSvneloba 12 pacien-
tis mixedviT axali preparatis miRebidan 24 saaTis Semdeg aRmoCnda
1.2 mg/dl.
1.1. davuSvaT, generaluri populacia ganawilebulia normalurad sa-
SualoTi 1 mg/dl da standartuli gadaxriT 0.4 mg/dl. o = 0.05 mniS-
vnelovnebis doniT SeamowmeT hipoTeza: SC-s saSualoa 1.2 mg/dl
alternativis winaaRmdeg: SC-s saSualo mniSvneloba araa 1 mg/dl-is
toli;
1.2. ras udris kriteriumis p-mniSvneloba?
1.3. rogoria 1-o ndobis albaTobis mqone ndobis intervali SC-s WeS-
mariti saSualo mniSvnelobisaTvis?
1.4. davuSvaT, 1.1-Si ucnobia populaciis standartuli gadaxra, magram
mocemulia SerCeviTi standartuli gadaxra, romelic 0.6 mg/dl-is
tolia. SeamowmeT am SemTxvevaSi 1.1-Si Sesamowmebeli hipoTeza;
1.5. rogor Seicvleba pasuxebi 1.1 1.4 punqtebSi, Tuki alternativa
iqneba: SC-s saSualo mniSvneloba metia 1 mg/dl-ze?
2. yovelwliuri dakvirvebebis mixedviT, 0-4 wlis asakis bavSve-
bSi asTma aRiricxeba biWebis 1.4%-Si da gogonebis 1%-Si.
111
2.1. davuSvaT mocemuli weliwadis ganmavlobaSi 0-4 wlis asakis 500
biWidan asTma aRmoaCnda 10 bavSvs, romelTa dedebic ewevian sigarets.
aris Tu ara mniSvnelovani gansxvaveba am jgufsa da generalur popu-
lacias Soris?
2.2. rogoria p-mniSvneloba 2.1 amocanaSi?
2.3. davuSvaT, mocemuli weliwadis ganmavlobaSi 0-4 wlis asakis 300
gogonadan asTma aRmoaCnda 4 bavSvs, romelTa dedebic ewevian sigar-
ets. aris Tu ara mniSvnelovani gansxvaveba am jgufsa da generalur
populacias Soris?
3. dakvirvebebis mixedviT, fexmZime qalebis 30% uCivis nausea-s
fexmZimobis 24-28 kviris ganmavlobaSi. gamokiTxes 200 qali, romelic
am xnis ganmavlobaSi regularulad Rebulobda eritromicins da aRmo-
Cnda, rom 110 maTgani uCivis nausea-s. SeamowmeT hipoTeza imis Sesax-
eb, rom nausea-Ti daavadebis done am jgufsa da generalur populaci-
aSi erTnairia.
4. rkinis-deficitis anemia kvebis higienis mniSvnelovani probl-
ema iyo aSS-Si. 1951 wels Catarda SedarebiT dabali Semosavlebis
mqone ojaxebSi 9-11 wlis biWebis gamokvleva da aRmoCnda, rom rkinis
miRebis dRiurma saSualo sididem am jgufSi Seadgina 12.50 mg, stand-
artuli gadaxriT 4.75 mg. davuSvaT, rom am asakisaTvis mTliani popu-
laciis rkinis miRebis saSualo sidide Seadgens 14.44mg-s. Cven gvaint-
eresebs SevamowmoT hipoTeza, rom SedarebiT dabali Semosavlebis mqo-
ne ojaxebSi 9-11 wlis biWebis rkinis miRebis sidide gansxvavebulia
generaluri populaciis imave sididisagan.
4.1. CamoayalibeT Sesabamis nulovani da alternatiuli hipoTezebi;
4.2. o = 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis doniT SeamowmeT nulovani hipoTezis sa-
marTlianobis sakiTxi;
davuSvaT, generaluri populaciis dRiuri rkinis miRebis stan-
dartuli gadaxra tolia 5.56mg-isa. Cven gvinda SevamowmoT aris Tu
ara dabali Semosavlebis mqone ojaxebSi 9-11 wlis biWebis rkinis mi-
Rebis dRiuri normis standartuli gadaxra generaluri populaciis
imave maCvenebelTan Sesadari.
4.4. CamoayalibeT Sesabamis nulovani da alternatiuli hipoTezebi;
4.5. o = 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis doniT SeamowmeT nulovani hipoTezis sa-
marTlianobis sakiTxi;
4.7. rogoria 1-o ndobis albaTobis mqone ndobis intervali dabali
Semosavlebis mqone ojaxebSi 9-11 wlis biWebis rkinis miRebis dRiuri
normis standartuli gadaxrisaTvis?
112
5. 64 cxvars gaukeTes ineqcia 10mg/ml doziT. erTi saaTis Sem-
deg antibiotikis koncentracia saSualod iyo 24.857mg/ml, standart-
uli gadaxriT 3.924mg/ml. ipoveT 95%-iani ndobis intervali popul-
aciis saSualo koncentraciisaTvis.
6. sxvadasxva adgilas napovni niangis kvercxebis saSualo rao-
denobaa 15, xolo standartuli gadaxra ki 7. aageT 90%-iani ndobis
intervali niangis populaciis kvercxebis saSualosaTvis.
7. baltiis zRvaSi, gdanskTan, wylis 8 sinjSi stronciumis ko-
ncentracia iyo: 4.0 5.5 4.5 6.0 5.75 4.5 4.0. daaxasiaTeT
gdanskTan zRvis wylis mdgomareoba stronciumTan mimarTebaSi.
8. 2003 wels axal zelandiaSi dabadebuli 69224 bavSvidan
33937 gogo iyo.
8.1. SeafaseT gogonebis dabadebis albaToba;
8.2. aageT 95%-iani ndobis intervali;
8.3. aris Tu ara gogos da biWis dabadeba tolalbaTuri?
9. Sokoladis mwarmoebeli, yoveli sawarmoo ciklis dasrule-
bis Semdeg wonis Sokoladis filebs. qvemoT movcemulia SemTxveviT
SerCeuli Sokoladis 40 filis wonebi gramebSi:
51.5 51.7 51.2 50.4 51.8 49.6 50.6 50.8 50.9 51.7 51.1
51.3 51.0 50.8 51.8 49.3 51.4 51.3 50.7 51.7 50.7 50.8
51.6 52.2 51.2 50.7 50.2 50.8 50.8 51.3 50.4 52.9 51.1
51.8 49.4 51.5 50.1 51.6 51.5 50.3
9.1. gansazRvreT akmayofilebs Tu ara mwarmoebeli saWiro moTxovnebs,
Tu Sokoladis filis standartuli wona Seadgens 50 grams;
9.2. aageT standartuli wonis 95%-iani ndobis intervali. moicavs
Tu ara es intervali 50 grams?
10. qvemoT moyvanilia studentis mier 18 mgzavrobaSi daxarju-
li dro wuTebSi: 67 73 79 78 50 80 98 88 79 71 51 57
81 65 65 85 65 90. aageT studentis mier mgzavrobaze daxarju-
li drois 95%-iani ndobis intervali.
11. meteorologis azriT qalaqSi qaris saSualo siCqarea 8 km /
sT. SemTxveviT SerCeuli 32 dRis monacemebiT qaris saSualo siCqare
aRmoCnda 8.2 km/sT, xolo Sesworebuli standartuli gadaxra ki 0.6
km/sT. 0.05 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT gvaqvs Tu ara safuZveli ar da-
veTanxmoT meteorologs? gamoiyeneT P -mniSvnelobis meTodi.
12. dakvirvebebis ra minimaluri raodenobaa saWiro imisaTvis,
rom miRweul iqna 0.05-is toli mniSvnelovnebis done da 0.9-is to-
li simZlavre ( , 49) N ~ normaluri populaciis saSualos Sesaxeb
ZiriTadi
0
: 8 H E = hipoTezis Semowmebisas
1
: 11 H E = alternativis
winaaRmdeg.
113
13. gayinuli kerZis mwarmoebeli firmis direqtori acxadebs,
rom kerZis saSualo kaloriuloba aris 800, xolo standartuli ga-
daxra ki 25. mkvklevarma Seamowma 12 kerZi da daadgina, rom maTi saS-
ualo kaloriuloba iyo 873. gvaqvs Tu ara sakmarisi safuZveli
0.02 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT uarvyoT direqtoris mtkicebuloba?
CavTvaloT, rom kaloriuloba kerZSi ganawilebulia normalurad.
14. dietologis gancxadebiT misi dietiT pacientebi 20 kviris
manZilze saSualod ikleben 24 funts. Sesabamisi standartuli gadax-
raa 5 funti. dietologs surs miiRos ukeTesi Sedegi da amcirebs ma-
rilis moxmarebas. axali meTodis gamoyenebiT 40 SemTxveviT SerCeuli
pacienti 20 kviraSi saSualod iklebs 16.3 funts. 0.05 o = mniSvnel-
ovnebis doniT SeiZleba Tu ara iTqvas, rom dieta Seicvala?
15. pacientebis garkveuli jgufis sisxlSi qolesterinis saSu-
alo done Seadgens aranakleb 240 miligrams, xolo standartuli ga-
daxraa 18 miligrami. axali preparatis miRebis Semdeg SemTxveviT Ser-
Ceul 40 pacientis sisxlSi qolesterinis saSualo done aRmoCnda
229 miligrami. 0.01 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT SegviZlia Tu ara
davaskvnaT, rom axali preparati efeqturia?
16. eqimebis azriT morbenali adamiani ufro met Jangbads moixm-
ars vidre saSualod yvela adamiani. SemTxveviT SerCeuli 15 morbena-
lisaTvis Jangbadis moxmarebis saSualo iyo 40.6 ml/kg, xolo Seswo-
rebuli standartuli gadaxra ki 6ml/kg. Tu yvela adamianis saSualo
moxmareba Seadgens 36.7ml/kg, gvaqvs Tu ara sakmao safuZveli davuje-
roT eqimebs 0.05 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT?
17. ekvatoris samxreTiT zafxulis TveebSi mosuli naleqebis
saSualo Seadgens 11.52 diums (1 diumi = 2.54 sm). 2000 wels mkvlev-
arma SemTxveviT SeraCia ekvatoris samxreTiT mdebare 10 qalaqi da da-
adgina, rom mosuli naleqebis saSualo aris 7.42 diumi. SerCevis Ses-
worebuli standartuli gadaxra Seadgens 1.3 diums. 0.05 o = mniSvne-
lovnebis doniT SeuZlia Tu ara mkvlevars daaskvnas, rom 2000 wels
mosuli naleqebis saSualo naklebia 11.52 diumze?
18. sigaretis kompanias surs Seamowmos hipoTeza, rom mis siga-
retSi nikotinis Semcvlelobis dipersia aris 0.644. nikotinis Semcv-
leloba izomeba miligramebSi da igulisxmeba, rom is normalurad ga-
nawilebulia. 20 sigaretisgan aRebuli SerCevis Sesworebuli standa-
rtuli gadaxraa 1 miligrami. 0.05 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT gvaqvs
Tu ara sakmarisi safuZveli uarvyoT kompaniis hipoTeza?
19. dietologis mtkicebiT sxvadasxva saxis erT magidis kovz
sirofSi kaloriebis ricxvis standartuli gadaxra aris 60. 0.1 o =
mniSvnelovnebis doniT SeiZleba Tu ar am mtkicebulebis uaryofa, Tu
SemTxveviT SerCeuli 18 sxvadasxva saxis sirofis erT kovzSi kalor-
iebis ricxvia:
114
53 210 100 200 100 220
210 100 240 200 100 210
100 210 100 210 100 60
20. kopaniis menejeris mtkicebiT maT mier gamoSvebul iogurt-
Si Saqris Semcvleloba ar aRemateba 25 grams. SemTxveviT SerCeul 20
iogurtSi gazomes Saqris Semcvleloba da aRmoCnda, rom Sesworebuli
SerCeviTi dispersia tolia 36-is. 0.1 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT SeiZ-
leba Tu ar am mtkicebulebis uaryofa?
21. samSobiaro saxlis warsuli Canawerebis mixedviT ara dRena-
kluli bavSvebis saSualo wona metia vidre 7 funti da 2 uncia. mim-
dinare wels 100 dabadebuli bavSvidan 23-is wona meti iyo vidre 7
funti da 2 uncia. 0.01 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT gvaqvs Tu ara sakm-
arisi safuZveli vamtkicoT rom proporcia Seicvala?
22. mkvlevari amtkicebs, rom specialuri dietiT gamokvebili
zrdasruli Rori saSualod iwonis 200 funts. 10 aseTi Rorisagan
Sedgenili SerCevis saSualo wona aRmoCnda 198.2 funti, xolo Seswo-
rebuli standartuli gadaxra ki 3.3 funti. 0.05 o = mniSvnelovnebis
doniT gvaqvs Tu ara safuZveli davujeroT mkvlevars? aageT 95%-iani
ndobis intervali realuri saSualosaTvis.
23. wina kvlevis Tanaxmad srulwlovani adamianebis sul cota
60% sauzmeze miirTmevs kvercxs kviraSi oTxjer mainc. am mosazrebis
Sesamowmeblad dietologma SemTxveviT SearCia 100 srulwlovani adam-
iani da daadgina, rom maT Soris 54% sauzmeze miirTmevs kvercxs kvi-
raSi oTxjer mainc. 0.1 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT eTanxmeba Tu ara
dietologis Sedegi wina kvlevis Sedegs?
24. sociologs surs Seamowmos sworia Tu ara, rom garkveuli
profesiis qalebi pirvel Svils aCenen 28.6 wlis asakSi. 0.05 o = mni-
Svnelovnebis doniT ra daskvna unda gamoitanos sociologma, Tu mas
eqneba SemTxveviT SerCeuli 36 qalis mier pirveli Svilis gaCenis as-
akis Semdegi monacemebi:
32 28 26 33 35 34 29 24 22
25 26 28 28 34 33 32 30 29
30 27 33 34 28 25 24 33 25
37 35 33 34 36 38 27 29 26
115
l e q c i a 9.
Tavi 10. hipoTezaTa Semowmeba. oramokrefiani amocanebi.
10.1. Sesavali.
wina leqciaSi Cven vamowmebdiT hipoTezebs erTi populaciis pa-
rametrebis konkretuli mniSvnelobis Sesaxeb, romelic SeiZleba iyos
mkvlevaris mier garkveuli mosazrebebiT dasaxelebuli ricxvi, wina
gamokvlevebidan cnobili ricxvi an ufro didi moculobis populacia-
ze dakvirvebebidan miRebuli ricxvi.
axla Cven ganvixilavT e.w. oramokrefiani amocanebis, rac guli-
sxmobs ori populaciis parametrebis Sedarebas, ise, rom arcerTis
konkretuli mniSvneloba cnobili ar aris. sakiTxi ase dgas: mocemu-
lia ori SerCeva raRac populaciebidan, romelTa maxasiaTeblebi (par-
ametrebi) Cven ar viciT da gvainteresebs, aris Tu ara am populacieb-
is saSualoebi (an dispersiebi, an proporciebi) toli. es iqneba Cveni
ZiriTadi (nulovani) hipoTeza, xolo alternativebi aqac SeiZleba iy-
os calmxrivi (marjvena da marcxena) an ormxrivi. Cven xSirad CavTv-
liT, rom Sesadarebeli populaciebi erTmaneTisagan damoukidebelia,
rac imas niSnavs, rom is SemTxveviTi sidideebi, romlebic orive SerC-
evisaTvis ricxviTi monacemebis ukan dgas, arian damoukideblebi.
10.2. dawyvilebuli monacemebi.
magaliTi 10.1. davuSvaT, Cven gvainteresebs moqmedebs Tu ara ga-
rkveuli tipis kontraceptivis miReba qalis sisxlis wnevaze. am mizn-
iT mopovebuli monacemebi warmodgenilia Semdegi cxrilis saxiT:
i
wneva
kontraceptivis
gamoyenebamde (x
i1
)
wneva kontraceptivis
gamoyenebis Semdeg (x
i2
)
sxvaoba
d
i
= x
i2
- x
i1
1 115 128 13
2 112 115 3
3 107 106 -1
4 119 128 9
5 115 122 7
6 138 145 7
7 126 132 6
8 105 109 4
9 104 102 -2
10 115 117 2
116
vTqvaT, i-uri qalis sisxlis wneva kontraceptivis miRebamde ga-
nawilebulia normalurad saSualoTi
i
da dispersiiT o
2
, xolo kon-
traceptivis miRebis Semdeg agreTve -- normalurad saSualoTi
i
+ A
da imave o
2
dispersiiT. nulovani hipoTeza ase yalibdeba: H
0
: A = 0,
rac imas niSnavs, rom kontraceptivis miRebas wneva ar Seucvlia, xo-
lo alternativaa H
1
: A = 0, rac imas niSnavs, rom kontraceptivis mi-
Reba cvlis wnevis sidides anu moqmedebs sisxlis wnevaze. cxadia, rom
kriteriumis statistika orive SerCevas unda eyrdnobodes. cal-calke
populaciebis parametrebi Cven ar viciT. samagierod, hipoTezis samar-
Tlianobis SemTxvevaSi, CvenTvis cnobilia, rom SemTxveviTi sidideebi
D
i
X
i2
- X
i1
, i =1,2,,n, ganawilebulia normalurad saSualoTi 0 da
dispersiiT,
2
D
o , romelic marTalia ar viciT, magram romlis Sefaseb-
ac SegviZlia gaerTianebuli SerCevidan. kriteriumis statistikad avi-
RoT
D n
n
n
S
D n
T
,
(10.1)
SemTxveviTi sidide, sadac

=
=
n
i
i n
D
n
D
1
1
da S
n,D
aRniSnavs sxvaobebis
SerCeviT standartul gadaxras, anu
S
n,D
=
.
|
\
|
.
|
\
|

= =
2
1 1
2
) / 1 (
1
1
n
i
i
n
i
i
D n D
n
. 10.2)
iseve, rogorc erTamokrefian amocanaSi normaluri populaciis
Sesaxeb hipoTezis Semowmebisas ucnobi dispersiis dros, T
n
SemTxveviT
sidides aqvs t(n-1)-ganawileba da amitom statistikuri kriteriumi ase
Camoyalibdeba:
n
SemTxveviT
sididis dakvirvebuli mniSvneloba t
n
(anu is mniSvneloba, romelic
miiReba T
n
SemTxveviTi sididis gamosaxulebaSi D
i
sididebis Secvlisas
d
i
sididebiT) akmayofilebs pirobas
2 / 1 , 1 2 / 1 , 1 o o
s s
n n n
t t t , maSin H
0
hipoTezis uaryofis safuZveli ara gvaqvs, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi ki
mas uarvyofT.
gavnagrZoT 10.1 magaliTis ganxilva da gamovTvaloT T
n
SemTxv-
eviT sididis dakvirvebuli t
10
mniSvneloba. cxadia, rom
10
d =(13+3-1+9+7+7+6+4+2-2)/10=48/10=4.8;
D n
s
,
= {{[13
2
+3
2
+(-1)
2
+9
2
+7
2
+7
2
+6
2
+4
2
+2
2
+(-2)
2
]-
-10(4.8)
2
}/9}
1/2
=(20.844)
1/2
=4.566
da amitom t
10
= 3.17 4.8 / 4.566 = 3.32. t(9)-ganawilebis kvantilebis
cxrilebidan ki, vpoulobT, rom t
9,0.975
= 2.262. radgan t
10
= 3.32 mniSvne-
117
loba ar ekuTvnis [-2.262, 2.262] ricxviT intervals, H
0
hipoTezas ua-
rvyofT. maSasadame, kontraceptivi moqmedebs qalis wnevaze.
sainteresoa rogor intervalSia moTavsebuli sxvaobis WeSmari-
ti saSualo
D
? ndobis intervalis asagebad viyenebT imave faqts,
rom
D n
n
n
S
D n
T
,
~ t(n-1) da rogorc me-7 leqciidan viciT, mas eqneba

Semdegi saxe:
, 1,1 / 2 , 1,1 / 2 ,
/ , /
n n n D n n n D
d t s n d t s n
o o
. (10.3)
amitom Cvens magaliTSi miviRebT:
(4.8-2.2624.566/3.17, 4.8+2.2624.566/3.17) = (1.53, 8.07).
maSasadame, saSualo wnevaTa sxvaobis WeSmariti
D
mniSvneloba
0.95-is toli albaTobiT moTavsebulia 1.53 mm vwy.sv.-dan 8.07 mm vwy.sv.
-mde.
10.3. oramokrefiani t kriteriumi toli, ucnobi dispersiebis
SemTxvevaSi.
vTqvaT, mocemulia ori damoukidebeli normalurad ganawilebu-
li populacia saSualoebiT
1
da
2
da cnobilia, rom maT aqvT to-
li dispersiebi
2
1
o =
2
2
o =o
2
, romelTa saerTo o
2
mniSvneloba ucnobia.
Cveni amocanaa SevamowmoT H
0
:
1
=
2
hipoTeza H
1
:
1
=
2
alternativis
winaaRmdeg. cxadia, rom
2 1
2 1 n n
X X ~ N(
1
-
2
, o
2
(1/n
1
+1/n
2
)), sadac n
1
da n
2
Sesabamisad, pirveli da meore SerCevis moculobebia. Sesabamis-
ad, H
0
hipoTezis samarTlianobisas
2 1
2 1
/ 1 / 1
2 1
n n
X X
n n
+

o
~ N(0,1). 10.4)
magram es sidide kriteriumis statistikad ar gamogvadgeba, ra-
dgan is Seicavs ucnob o parametrs. amitom mis magivrad (10.4) gamosa-
xulebaSi CavsvaT misi Sefaseba da kriteriumis statistikad aviRoT
miRebuli sidide. ismis kiTxva: romeli SerCevidan SevafasoT ucnobi o
parametri? am kiTxvaze pasuxis gasacemad, gavixsenoT, rom SerCevis
moculobis zrda iwvevda saSualos standartuli Secdomis Semcireb-
as. amitom iqcevian ase: vinaidan hipoTezis samarTlianobis SemTxvevaSi,
orive populacia erTnairad yofila ganawilebuli, amitom gavaerTian-
oT es SerCevebi (riTac gavzrdiT SerCevis saerTo moculobas) da ise
SevafasoT o
2
-is mniSvneloba, anu Sefasebad aviRoT Semdegi sidide:
2
) 1 ( ) 1 (
2 1
2
1 2
2
1 1
2
,
2 1
2
+
+
=
n n
S n S n
S
n n
n n
a
. (10.5)
118
advili saCvenebelia, rom ase agebuli Sefaseba warmoadgens o
2
-
is gadauadgilebad Sefasebas.
sabolood, kriteriumis statistikas aqvs Semdegi saxe
2 1 ,
2 1
,
/ 1 / 1
2 1
2 1
2 1
n n S
X X
T
n n
n n
n n
+

, (10.6)
romlisTvisac mtkicdeba, rom
2 1 ,
2 1
,
/ 1 / 1
2 1
2 1
2 1
n n S
X X
T
n n
n n
n n
+

~ t(n
1
+ n
2
-2). (10.7)
Sesabamisad, statistikuri kriteriumi ase yalibdeba:
Tu dasaxelebuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis
2 1
,n n
T SemTxveviT
sididis dakvirvebuli mniSvneloba
2 1
,n n
t akmayofilebs pirobas
2 / 1 , 2 , 2 / 1 , 2
2 1 2 1 2 1
o o + +
s s
n n n n n n
t t t , (10.8)
maSin H
0
hipoTezis uaryofis safuZveli ara gvaqvs, winaaRmdeg SemTxve-
vaSi ki mas uarvyofT.
kriteriumis gamoyenebis sailustraciod moviyvanoT Semdegi
magaliTi 10.2. davuSvaT, 35-39 ww. asakobrivi jgufis erT daw-
esebulebaSi momuSave im 8 qalisaTvis, romlebic xmaroben kontracep-
tivs sisxlis wnevaTa saSualo gamovida 132.86 mm vwy.sv., standartu-
li gadaxriT 15.34 mm vwy.sv., xolo im 21 qalisaTvis, romlebic ar
xmaroben kontraceptivs, igive maCveneblebma Seadgina Sesabamisad,
127.44 da 18.23 mm vwy.sv.. o = 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis doniT ra SeiZleba
iTqvas populaciebis saSualo wnevebs Soris sxvaobaze?
amoxsna. (10.6) formulaze dayrdnobiT gamovTvaloT
2 1
,n n
T SemTx-
veviT sididis dakvirvebuli
2 1
,n n
t mniSvneloba. amisaTvis jer (10.5)-dan
gamovTvaloT
2
,
2
n n
a
S -is dakvirvebuli
2
,
2 1
n n
s mniSvneloba:
2
,
2 1
n n
s = ((8-1)(15.34)
2
+(21-1)(18.23)
2
)/(8+21-2) = 307.18,
saidanac 527 . 17 18 . 307
2 1
,
~ =
n n
s . amitom
2 1
,n n
t = ~
+

21 / 1 8 / 1 527 . 17
44 . 127 86 . 132
0.74.
t(27)-ganawilebis kvantilebis cxrilebidan vpoulobT, rom
t
27,0.975
= 2.052. radgan t
8,21
= 0.74 mniSvneloba ekuTvnis [-2.052, 2.052]
ricxviT intervals, o = 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis doniT H
0
hipoTezis uar-
yofis safuZveli ara gvaqvs. maSasadame, davaskvniT, rom sisxlis saSu-
alo wnevebi mocemuli populaciebisaTvis mniSvnelovnad ar gansxvavde-
ba.
radgan cnobilia kriteriumis statistikis ganawileba, iseve,
rogorc wina nawilSi SegviZlia gamovTvaloT 1-o ndobis albaTobis
119
mqone ndobis intervali
1
-
2
sxvaobisaTvis, romlis qveda da zeda
sazRvari Sesabamisad iqneba:
1 2 1 2 1 2
1 1 2,1 / 2 ,
1 2
1 1
n n n n n n
x x t s
n n
o +
+ . (10.9)
10.2 magaliTisaTvis es intervali iqneba:
[132.86-127.442.05217.527(1/8+1/21)
1/2
,
132.86-127.442.05217.527(1/8+1/21)
1/2
] = [-9.52 , 20.36].
rogorc vxedavT, es intervali sakmarisad farTea da saWiroa
ufro didi moculobis SerCevebi, rom ufro zustad davaxasiaToT
1
-
-
2
sxvaobis WeSmariti mniSvneloba.
10.4. hipoTeza ori normaluri populaciis dispersiaTa
tolobis Sesaxeb.
vTqvaT, mocemulia ori SerCeva n
1
da n
2
moculobebiT, romelTa
Sesabamisi populaciebi normaluradaa ganawilebuli parametrebiT (
1
,
2
1
o ) da (
1
,
2
2
o ). Sesamowmebelia H
0
:
2
1
o =
2
2
o hipoTeza H
1
:
2
1
o
2
2
o al-
ternativis winaaRmdeg. rogorc cnobilia,
2
1
o -isa da
2
2
o -is gadauadgi-
lebad Sefasebebs warmoadgenen Sesabamisi Sesworebuli SerCeviTi disp-
ersiebi:
2
1
1
n
S da
2
2
2
n
S . magram saSualoebis tolobis Sesaxeb amocanisag-
an gansxvavebiT,
2
1
1
n
S da
2
2
2
n
S -is Sesadareblad ixilaven ara
2
1
1
n
S -
2
2
2
n
S
sxvaobas, aramed maT Sefardebas
2
1
1
n
S /
2
2
2
n
S , romelic gasagebia, rom hip-
oTezis samarTlianobis dros unda Sedardes ara 0-s, aramed 1-s. gar-
da amisa, ucnobia
2
1
1
n
S -
2
2
2
n
S SemTxveviT sididis ganawileba, maSin, roca
2
1
1
n
S /
2
2
2
n
S SemTxveviT sidides hipoTezis samarTlianobis dros aqvs e.w.
fiSeris ganawileba anu F(n
1
-1, n
2
-1)-ganawileba. statistikuri krite-
riumis agebamde davaxasiaToT es ganawileba.
F(
1
,
2
)-ganawileba aqvs ori damoukidebeli (normirebuli) _
2
SemTxveviTi sididis Sefardebas, romelTa Tavisuflebis xarisxebia Se-
sabamisad, v
1
da v
2
, anu
2 2
2
1 1
2
,
/ ) (
/ ) (
2 1
v v _
v v _
v v
F ~ F(
1
,
2
). (10.10)
2
()-ganawilebis msgavsad, es ganawilebac Tavmoyrilia dadebiT
naxevarRerZze. misi
p
F
, ,
2 1
v v
kvantilebi ganisazRvreba tolobiT:
p F F P
p
= s } {
, , ,
2 1 2 1
v v v v
. (10.11)
SevniSnoT, rom am ganawilebis (SemTxveviTi sididis) (10.10)
gansazRvridan gamomdinareobs, rom
p
F
, ,
2 1
v v
= 1/
p
F
1 , ,
1 2
v v
. (10.12)
120
am Tvisebis gamo, cxrilebSi F-ganawilebis mxolod zeda kriti-
kuli mniSvnelobebia mocemuli.
davubrundeT axla statistikur kriteriums, romelsac mokled
F-kriteriums uwodeben. is ase yalibdeba:
Tu mocemuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis
2 1
,n n
F =
2
1
1
n
S /
2
2
2
n
S
statistikis dakvirvebuli mniSvneloba
2 1
,n n
f =
2
1
1
n
s /
2
2
2
n
s akmayofilebs
pirobas, rom
2 / 1 , 1 , 1 , 2 / , 1 , 1
2 1 2 1 2 1
o o
s s
n n n n n n
F f F , (10.13)
maSin o mniSvnelovnebis doniT H
0
:
2
1
o =
2
2
o hipoTezis uaryofis safu-
Zveli ara gvaqvs, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi ki mas uarvyofT.
kriteriumis gamoyenebis sailustraciod ganvixiloT Semdegi
magaliTi 10.2. davuSvaT, 10.1 magaliTSi CvenTvis ucnobia dispe-
rsiaTa tolobis piroba. rogorc gvaxsovs, 21 qalis (romlebic ar
iyeneben kontraceptivs) sisxlis wnevis standartuli gadaxra toli
iyo 18.23 mm vwy. sv., xolo 8 qalis (romlebic iyeneben kontracept-
ivs) sisxlis wnevis standartuli gadaxra toli iyo 15.34 mm vwy.sv.-
is. o = 0.05-saTvis SevamowmoT hipoTeza imis Sesaxeb, rom am populac-
iebis dispersiebi tolia.
amoxsna. gamovTvaloT
8 , 21
F statistikis dakvirvebuli mniSvnel-
oba:
8 , 21
f =18.23
2
/15.34
2
=1.41. F-ganawilebis cxrilebidan vpoulobT,
rom F
20,7,0.975
>F
24,7,0.975
=4.42>1.41. amitom mocemuli mniSvnelovnebis do-
niT dispersiaTa tolobis Sesaxeb hipoTezis uaryofis safuZveli ara
gvaqvs.
10.5. oramokrefiani t kriteriumi aratoli dispersiebis
SemTxvevaSi.
vTqvaT, mocemulia ori damoukidebeli normalurad ganawilebu-
li populacia saSualoebiT
1
da
2
da cnobilia, rom maT aqvT ara-
toli dispersiebi
2
1
o =
2
2
o . Cveni amocanaa SevamowmoT H
0
:
1
=
2
hipo-
Teza H
1
:
1
=
2
alternativis winaaRmdeg. iseve, rogorc 9.3 punqtSi,
ganvixiloT
2 1
2 1 n n
X X sxvaoba, romlisaTvisac cxadia, rom
2 1
2 1 n n
X X ~ N(
1
-
2
; (
2
1
o /n
1
+
2
2
o /n
2
)),
sadac n
1
da n
2
Sesabamisad, pirveli da meore SerCevis moculobebia.
maSasadame, Tu cnobilia
2
1
o da
2
2
o , maSin H
0
hipoTezis samarTlianobi-
sas
2
2
2 1
2
1
2 1
/ /
2 1
n n
X X
n n
o o +
~ N(0,1) (10.14)
121
da es SemTxveviTi sidide gamodgeba kriteriumis statistikad.
magram es sidide kriteriumis statistikad ar gamogvadgeba, ro-
ca is Seicavs ucnob
2
1
o da
2
2
o parametrebs. amitom (iseve rogorc 9.3
punqtSi) ucnobi
2
1
o -isa da
2
2
o -is (10.14) gamosaxulebaSi vsvamT maT
Sefasebebs (Sesabamis SerCeviT standartuli gadaxrebs) da kriterium-
is statistikad viRebT Semdeg SemTxveviT sidides:
2
2
2 1
2
1
2 1
,
/ /
2 1
2 1
2 1
n S n S
X X
T
n n
n n
n n
+
. (10.15)
rogorc viciT, kriteriumis statistika ara mxolod gamoTvla-
di sidide unda iyos, aramed kriteriumis asagebad, arsebiTia misi zu-
sti an asimptoturi ganawilebis codnac. rogoraa ganawilebuli
2 1
,n n
T SemTxveviTi sidide? maTematikur statistikaSi es problema cno-
bilia berens-fiSeris problemis saxeliT. misi gadaWris erT-erTi, Se-
darebiT martivi gza cnobilia satertvaitis (Satterthwaite) meTodis
saxeliT, romelic Semdegnairad yalibdeba:
Tu mocemuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis
2 1
,n n
T statistikis
dakvirvebuli mniSvneloba
2 1
,n n
t akmayofilebs Semdeg utolobas
-t
[c] , 1-o/2
s
2 1
,n n
t s t
[c] , 1-o/2
, (10.16)
sadac c gamoiTvleba Semdgi wesiT
) 1 /( ) / ( ) 1 /( ) / (
) / / (
2
2
2
2
2 1
2
1
2
1
2
2
2
2 1
2
1
2 1
2 1
+
+
=
n n s n n s
n s n s
c
n n
n n
, (10.17)
([c] aRniSnavs c ricxvis mTel nawils anu c-s uaxloes mTel ricxvs
marcxnidan), maSin o mniSvnelovnebis doniT H
0
:
1
=
2
hipoTezis uar-
yofis safuZveli ara gvaqvs, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, mas uarvyofT.
adamianebis memkvidreebSi, romlebic gardaicvalnen gulis daavadebiT.
davuSvaT, 100 aseT bavSvze dakvirvebam mogvca qolesterinis saSualo
done 207.3 mg/dl, xolo standartuli gadaxra ki 35.6 mg/dl. garda
amisa, daakvirdnen qolesterinis doneebs im bavSvebSi, romelTa mSobl-
ebic cocxlebia da ara aqvT gulis daavadeba. SeirCa aseTi 74 bavSvi,
romlis mixedviTac qolesterinis saSualo done gamovida 193.4 mg/dl,
xolo standartuli gadaxra ki 17.3 mg/dl. Cveni amocanaa o = 0.05 mni-
Svnelovnebis donisaTvis SevamowmoT hipoTeza populaciebis saSualoe-
bis tolobis Sesaxeb.
amoxsna. SegviZlia davuSvaT, rom populaciebi ganawilebulia
normalurad, Tumca maTi parametrebis Sesaxeb araferia cnobili. amit-
om es amocana gaiyofa or etapad: I. jer SevamowmoT dispersiebis to-
lobis hipoTeza 10.4 punqtis Sesabamisad. II. Tu aRnSinul hipoTezas
122
ver uarvyofT, Semdeg gamoviyenoT 10.3 punqtSi miRebuli kriteriumi
saSualoTa tolobis Sesaxeb hipoTezis Sesamowmeblad, xolo Tu ar
dadasturda dispersiaTa tolobis hipoTeza, saSualoTa tolobis hip-
oTeza SevamowmoT am punqtSi ganxiluli satertvaitis meTodiT.
ganvixiloT SerCeviT dispersiaTa Sefardeba da SevadaroT is
F
99,73,0.975
kvantilis ricxviT mniSvnelobas.
74 , 100
F statistikis dakvirv-
ebuli mniSvneloba tolia
74 , 100
f = 35.6
2
/17.3
2
= 4.23. radgan cxrilebSi
ar aris F
99,73,0.975
kvantilis ricxviTi mniSvneloba, gamovTvaloT p-mni-
Svneloba, romelic alternativis ormxrivobis gamo tolia p = 2
P{
74 , 100
F > 4.23}s 0.0002, rac imis maCvenebelia, rom Sedegi statistiku-
rad mniSvnelovania da maSasadame, hipoTeza dispersiaTa tolobis Sesa-
xeb unda uarvyoT.
gadavideT meore etapze. radgan davadgineT, rom populaciaTa
dispersiebi gansxvavebulia, viyenebT satertvaitis meTods saSualoTa
tolobis Sesaxeb hipoTezis Sesamowmeblad. gamovTvaloT (10.15) tol-
obiT gansazRvruli statistikis dakvirvebuli mniSvneloba:
4 . 3
089 . 4
9 . 13
74 / 3 . 17 100 / 6 . 35
4 . 193 3 . 207
2 2
74 , 100
= =
+
= t .
gamovTvaloT axla (10.17) Tanafardobis mixedviT Tavisuflebis
xarisxis miaxloebiTi mniSvneloba c:
4 . 151
8465 . 1
718 . 16
73 / ) 74 / 3 . 17 ( 99 / ) 100 / 6 . 35 (
) 74 / 3 . 17 100 / 6 . 35 (
2
2 2 2
2 2 2
= =
+
+
= c
da maSasadame, [c] = 151. radgan t
100,74
= 3.4 > t
120, 0.975
= 1.98 > t
151, 0.975
ami-
tom o = 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis doniT populaciaTa saSualoebis tolob-
is hipoTezas uarvyofT.
SevniSnoT, rom 1-o ndobis albaTobis mqone ndobis intervals
aqvs Semdegi saxe:
1 2 1 2
1 2 1 2
2 2 2 2
1 2 1 2
1 1 [ ],1 / 2 1 1 [ ],1 / 2
1 2 1 2
,
n n n n
n n c n n c
s s s s
x x t x x t
n n n n
o o
| |

+ + +

\ .
. (10.18)
10.6. SerCevaTa moculobebis gansazRvra. ori populaciis
saSualoebis Sedarebis kriteriumis simZlavre.
SerCevaTa moculobebis gansazRvra, rogorc erTamokrefian amo-
canebSic vnaxeT, saWiroa eqsperimentis winaswar dagegmvisaTvis. am na-
wilSi Cven moviyvanT oramkrefiani amocanebisaTvis SerCevaTa im mocu-
lobebis formulebs, romlebic mocemuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTv-
is populaciaTa saSualoebis Sedarebis amocanaSi saWiroa dasaxelebu-
li 1-| simZlavris misaRwevad ormxrivi alternativebis dros.
123
davuSvaT, mocemulia ori normaluri populacia saSualoebiT
1
da
2
da cnobili dispersiebiT
2
1
o da
2
2
o . Sesamowmebelia H
0
:
1
=
=
2
hipoTeza H
1
:
1
=
2
alternativis winaaRmdeg. Cveni amocanaa, ganv-
sazRvroT populaciaTa is n
1
da n
2
= kn
1
moculobebi, romelTaTvisac
o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis miiRweva mocemuli 1-| simZlavre. form-
ulebs aqvT Semdegi saxe:
2
1 2
2
1 2 / 1
2
2
2
1 1
) /( ) ( ) / ( o o
| o
+ + >

z z k n , (10.19)
2
1 2
2
1 2 / 1
2
2
2
1 2
) /( ) ( ) ( o o
| o
+ + >

z z k n . (10.20)
SevniSnoT, rom k=1 SemTxvevaSi n
1
= n
2
da (10.19) da (10.20) Se-
fasebebic iZleva erTsa da imave Sedegs. sailustraciod ganvixiloT
10.2 magaliTis Semdegi modifikacia.
magaliTi 10.4. davuSvaT, 35-39 ww. asakobrivi jgufis im qalebs
Soris, romlebic xmaroben kontraceptivs, sisxlis wnevis saSualoa
132.86 mm vwy.sv. da standartuli gadaxra ki 15.34 mm vwy.sv., xolo
qalebisaTvis, romlebic ar xmaroben kontraceptivs, igive maCveneblebi
Sesabamisad Seadgens 127.44-sa da 18.23 mm vwy.sv.-s. o = 0.05 mniSvnelo-
vnebis donisa da k=2-saTvis ganvsazRvroT SerCevaTa is moculobebi,
romlebic saSualoTa garCevis amocanaSi mogvcemen 80%-ian simZlavr-
es?
amoxsna. (10.19) formulidan miviRebT, rom
1 . 107
) 44 . 127 86 . 132 (
) 84 . 0 96 . 1 ( ) 2 / 23 . 18 34 . 15 (
2
2 2 2
1
=
+ +
= n ,
saidanac davaskvniT, rom n
1
= 108 da maSasadame, n
2
= 2 n
1
= 2 108 = 216.
kriteriumis simZlavris gamosaTvlelad H
0
:
1
=
2
hipoTezis
winaaRmdeg ganvixiloT specifikuri alternativa, kerZod, Semdegi al-
ternativa H
1
:
2
=
1
+ A. maSin ormxrivi alternativisaTvis simZlav-
re Semdegnairad iTvleba:
.
|
\
|
+
A
+ u =

k
n
z
/
1
2
2
2
1
1
2 / 1
o o
|
o
, sadac k = n
2
/ n
1
. (10.21)
magaliTi 10.5. SeirCa 35-39 ww. asakobrivi jgufis 100-100 qa-
li, romlebic xmaroben da ar xmaroben kontraceptivs da sisxlis
wnevaTa sxvaobis saSualo gamovida 5 mm vwy.sv.. vTqvaT, standartuli
gadaxrebi am populaciebSi Sesabamisad 15.34 mm vwy.sv.-sa da 18.23 mm
vwy.sv.-is tolia. o = 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis ganvsazRvroT
kriteriumis simZlavre.
amoxsna. radgan n
1
= n
2
= 100, k = n
2
/ n
1
=1, A = 5, o
1
= 15.34, o
2
=
18.23 da o = 0.05 (10.21) tolobidan miviRebT, rom
1-| = u(-1.96+2.099) = u(0.139) = 0.555.
124
amocanebi
1. 12-14 wlis dabal socialur-ekonomikur pirobebSi mcxovrebi
25 gogonas kalciumis miRebis saSualo da standartuli gadaxra Ses-
abamisad tolia 6.56-isa da 0.64 mg-is. ukeTes pirobebSi mcxovrebi 40
imave asakis gogonasaTvis ki msgavsi maCveneblebi Sesabamisad Seadgens
6.8-sa da 0.76 mg-s. davuSvaT, o = 0.05.
1.1. SeamowmeT, aris Tu ara mniSvnelovani gansxvaveba ori populaciis
dispersiebs Soris;
1.2. rogoria saSualoebis Sedarebis Sesaferisi procedura?
1.3. CaatareT es procedura ornairad: kritikul mniSvnelobasa da p-
mniSvnelobaze dayrdnobiT;
1.4. gamoTvaleT 95%-iani ndobis intervali populaciebis saSualoTa
sxvaobisaTvis;
1.5. davuSvaT, Semdgomi SeswavlisaTvis saWiroa dadgindes ori jgufis
gogonaTa Tanabari raodenoba, imisaTvis, rom mivaRwioT 80%-ian simZ-
lavres o = 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis. ramdeni monacemia amisaTv-
is saWiro?
1.6. rogor Seicvleba pasuxi 1.5 amocanaSi, Tu aviRebT o = 0.01-s?
2. safiqrebelia, rom bavSvis filtvebis janmrTelobas gansazRv-
ravs ojaxSi ewevian Tu ara sigarets. amis Sesaswavlad SeirCa 5-9
wlis asakis bavSvebis ori jgufi: 23 im ojaxebidan, sadac ar ewevian
sigarets da 20 im ojaxebidan, sadac sigarets ewevian. aRmoCnda, rom
pirvel jgufSi FEV (forced expiratory volume) sididis saSualom da
standartulma gadaxram Sesabamisad Seadgina 2.1 l da 0.7 l, xolo
meore jgufisaTvis igive maCveneblebma Sesabamisad Seadgines 2.3 l da
0.4 l. davuSvaT, o = 0.05.
2.1. rogor CamoayalibebdiT nulovan da alternatiul hipoTezebs?
2.2. rogoria 2.1-Si Camoyalibebuli hipoTezebis Semowmebis saWiro
procedura?
2.3. CaatareT es procedura kritikul mniSvnelobaze dayrdnobiT;
2.4. gamoTvaleT 95%-iani ndobis intervali populaciebis saSualoTa
sxvaobisaTvis;
2.5. davuSvaT, Semdgomi SeswavlisaTvis saWiroa dadgindes ori jguf-
is bavSvebis Tanabari raodenoba, imisaTvis, rom mivaRwioT 95%-ian si-
mZlavres o = 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis. ramdeni monacemia amisa-
Tvis saWiro?
3. axseniT, ratom ar SeiZleba ubralod SexedoT eqsperimentul
pirobebSi myofi ori jgufis saSualoTa mniSvnelobebs Soris gansxva-
vebas da gadawyvitoT, aris Tu ara es gansxvaveba ganpirobebuli faqt-
oris moqmedebiT.
125
4. aqvs Tu ara diazepams (sedatiuri saSualeba) gverdiTi efeq-
ti? am hipoTezis Sesamowmeblad, 12 pacients aZlevdnen placebos, me-
ore jgufis 12 pacients ki 15mg diazepams. Oorive jgufi afasebda xa-
nmokle Sualedis xangrZlivobas. Pplacebo jgufma es dro Seafasa
rogorc 19.8wm. (standartuli gadaxriT 7.6wm), maSin roca eqsperimen-
tuli jgufis mier Sefasebuli dro iyo 13.6wm. (standartuli gadax-
riT 4.8wm.). aris Tu ara saSualoTa Soris mniSnelovani gansxvaveba?
5. ganapirobebs Tu ara kompiuterulad modelirebuli eqsperim-
entebi ufro did miRwevebs biologiaSi, vidre laboratoriuli eqspe-
rimentebi? 28 studenti-biologi gadaanawiles or jgufSi. pirvel
jgufSi iyo Cveulebrivi swavleba, meoreSi ki kompiuterulad model-
irebuli. kursis bolos biologiis codna testiT gazomes:
meTodi Sefaseba
Cveule-
brivi
74 75 81 90 67 72 84 87 92 70 78 82 75 85
kompiu-
teruli
84 75 94 88 69 90 86 97 81 91 83 92 82 83
mniSnelovnad gansxvavdeba Tu ara miRwevis testis mocemuli qulebi
erTmaneTisagan 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis doniT? gamoiyeneT ormxrivi kri-
teriumi.
6. cxrilSi mocemulia 20-24 wlis qalebis wonebi (funtebSi)
mowevisaTvis Tavis danebebis programis dasawyisSi da mowevisaTvis Ta-
vis danebebidan 1 wlis Semdeg:
per-
iodi
wona
x
n
s
dasaw-
yisSi
122.4 117.1 127.8 123.2 112.5 118.5 121.4 131.7 121.85 6.03
Semdeg
127.9 119.4 127.1 126.5 114.6 125.4 119.8 134.2 124.4 6.13
statistikurad mniSnelovnad gansxvavdeba Tu ara am or periodSi gaz-
omili wonebi erTmaneTisagan?
7. aqvs Tu ara xmaurs raime gavlena wnevaze? 10 studenti isv-
enebda komfortul savarZlebSi 30 wuTis ganmavlobaSi. amis Semdeg
maT uzomavdnen sisxlis sistolur wnevas. meore jgufis 10 studenti
savarZlebSi 30 wuTi usmenda didi qalaqis transportis Canawers pik-
is saaTebSi da maT mere uzomavdnen sisxlis sistolur wnevas.
jgufi sisxlis sistoluri wneva
uxmauro 106 117 124 129 115 131 121 115 128 136
xmauriani 141 136 124 139 121 119 147 128 115 134
a) TiToeuli jgufisaTvis ipoveT saSualo da standartuli gadaxra;
b) ipoveT 95%-ani ndobis intervali ori populaciis saSualoTa So-
126
ris sxvaobisaTvis; g) upasuxeT kiTxvas: moqmedebs Tu ara xmauri sis-
xlis sistolur wnevaze.
8. Sedarebuli iyo wesrigis damrRvevad cnobili studentebis
akademiuri moswrebis qulebi im studentebis akademiur moswrebas, ro-
mlebic ar iyvnen SeniSnuli wesrigis darRvevaSi. akademiuri moswrebis
qulis saSualo da standartuli gadaxra wesrigis damrRvevi 1794
studentisaTvis Sesabamisad iyo 1.68 da 0.34. 3606 studentisaTvis ki,
romlebic ar arRvevdnen wesrigs, moswrebis saSualo da standartuli
gadaxra iyo Sesabamisad 2.09 da 0.83. mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba Tu
ara moswrebis qulebi? gamoiyeneT ormxrivi kriteriumi da mniSnelov-
nobis 0.05 done.
9. mravali studenti gamocdis dros ganicdis SfoTvas, romel-
ic Zalian uSlis xels maT akademiur moswrebas. wamoayenes hipoTeza,
rom damamSvidebeli musikis mosmena gamocdisas Seamcirebs am SfoTvas.
Terapevtma airCia 34 studenti, vinc xasiaTdeboda Zlieri SfoTviT
gamocdis dros. studentebi SemTxveviTad iyvnen gadanawilebuli or
jgufSi. pirveli jgufis studentebi atarebdnen erT saaTs wynar das-
asvenebel oTaxSi, sadac isini kiTxulobdnen Jurnalebs. meore, eqspe-
rimentuli jgufis pirebi ki erT saaTis ganmavlobaSi gamocdis win
usmendnen damamSvidebel musikas. gamocdis qulis saSualo pirveli
jgufisaTvis iyo 73.2, standartuli gadaxra ki 8.4. meore jgufis sa-
Sualo Seadgenda 75.6-s, standartuli gadaxra ki 8.7. gansxvavdebian
Tu ara gamocdis qulebi am jgufebSi erTmaneTisagan? gamoiyeneT orm-
xrivi kriteriumi da mniSvnelovnobis 0.05 done.
10. gazomes 85 aRgznebuli pacientis Ramis Zilis xangrZlivoba.
saSualo gamovida 7.16 saaTi, standartuli gadaxra ki 2.15 saaTi. 113
mSvidi pacientis Ramis Zilis saSualo xangrZlivobaa 7.82, standart-
uli gadaxra ki 2.19. gansxvadeba Tu ara erTmaneTisagan am jgufebis
saSualoebi. gamoiyeneT 0.03 done.
11. moqmedebs, Tu ara dedebis SfoTva bavSvebis qcevaze? 48 sami
wlis bavSvis saSualo qcevis qula, romelTa dedebis SfoTvis done
Sefasebuli iyo rogoc maRali gamovida 7.92, standartuli gadaxra
ki 3.45. mSvidi dedebis 48 bavSvis saSualo qulaa 5.80, standartu-
li gadaxra ki 2.87.
11.1 SeamowmeT es hipoTeza 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis doniT;
11.2 aageT 90%-iani ndobis intervali saSualoTa sxvaobisaTvis.
12. akvirdebodnen 10 epilefsiiT daavadebul pacients, romelT-
ac utardebodaT standartuli mkurnaloba da 13 pacients, romelTac
utardebodaT mkurnaloba axali medikamenturi preparatebiT da orive
SemTxvevaSi zomavdnen Setevis xangrZlivobas:
standartuli
mkurnaloba
axali
mkurnaloba
127
Setevebis saSualo (wm) 4.1 2.6
standart. Ggadaxra 1.7 0.6
SerCevis moculoba 10 13
12.1 amoklebs Tu ara axali mkurnaloba Setevis xangrZlivobas?
13. epilefsiiT daavadebul 13 Tkufis cali dayofili iyo or
jgufad. Ppirvel jgufs utardebodaT standartuli mkurnaloba, meo-
re jgufis wevrebi iRebdnen axal wamals. qvemoT moyvanilia analizis
Sedegebi.
Zveli mkurnaloba 3.9 4.1 3.8 4.4 4,8 4.0 3.7 4.2 4.7 3.5
3.2 4.1
axali mkurnaloba 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.7 2.9 1.9
1.1 2.5
13.1 aris Tu ara gansxvaveba analizis Sedegebis or simravles Soris?
13.2 SeamowmeT hipoTeza 0.05 mniSvnelovnobis doneze.
14. filtvis kiboTi daavadebul 23 pacients utardeboda stan-
dartuli mkurnaloba, 19-s ki eqsperimentuli. cxrilSi moyvanilia am
pacientebis SerCeviTi maxasiaTeblebi:
eqsperimentaluri
mkurnaloba
standartuli
mkurnaloba
saSualo 48.11 37.35
standartuli gadaxra 14.36 19.09
SerCevis moculoba 19 23
aris Tu ara gansxvaveba sicocxlis xangrZlivobaSi? aiReT 0.05 mniSn-
elovnobis done.
15. 100 bayayi iyo gadayvanili erTi sacxovrebeli adgilidan me-
ore adgilzeA(am jiSis bayayebi 30 wlamde cocxloben da sicocxlis
bolomde izrdebian). erTi wlis Semdeg gazomili iyo orive adgilas
daWerili bayayebi:
moculoba saSualo wona stand. gadaxra
Zveli adgili 44 1.901 1.468
Aaxali adgili 7 3.95 2.161
SeiZleba Tu ara rom davaskvnaT, rom bayayebisaTvis axali adgili uke-
Tesia?
16. cxrilSi moyvanilia erTi da igive wels dabadebuli deda-
li da mamali meliebis wona.
Ddedali meliebis wona mamali meliebis wona
2200 2250 1900 1800 2000 1925 1700 1850 1750
1925 1650 2000 2200 1750 2650 2550 1850 1800
1950 1800 1000 17500 2300 2350 2275 2300 2650
aris Tu ara gansxvaveba meliebis wonaSi ( 0.05 o = )?
128
16. qveviT mocemulia erTi da igive asakis, sqesis da danaSaul-
ebrivi istoriis mqone damnaSaveebis monacemebi. kerZod ki mocemulia
drois xangrZlivoba damnaSaveebis cixidan ganTavisuflebasa da maT mi-
er danaSaulis xelaxla Cadenas Soris. danaSaulis xelaxla Cadenamde
dro aRwerilia TveebiT. Mmocemulia damnaSaveebis ori jgufi, romle-
bic gansxvavdebian erTmaneTisagan patimrobis misjili tipis mixedviT.
cixe savaldebulo
muSaobasTan erTad 14 3 16 10 11 12
mxolod cixe 18 15 21 14 16
16.1. ipoveT TiToeuli jgufis saSualo;
16.2. saSualoTa Soris arsebuli gansxvaveba statistikurad mniSvnel-
ovania, Tu aramniSvnelovania? 0.05 o = .
17. Semowmebul iqna gafantuli skleroziT daavadebul adamian-
Ta ori 120 da 34 kaciani jgufis unarebi. pirvel jgufSi Sediodnen
is adamianebi visac uvlida sakuTari meuRle, xolo meoreSi ki is ad-
amianebi visac uvlida ucxo adamiani. miRebuli Sedegebia: 120 2 x = ,
'
1
0.6 s = ;
34
1.7 y = ,
'
2
0.7 s = . 0.1 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT aris Tu ara
gansxvaveba am ori jgufis saSualoebs Soris?
18. mkvlevars surs gaarkvios aris Tu ara mweveli adamianis
pulsi ufro maRali vidre aramwevelis. SemTxveviT SerCeuli 100 mwe-
velisa da 100 aramwevelis gamokvlevis Sedegebia Sesabamisad:
100 90 x = ,
'
1
5 s = ;
100
88 y = ,
'
2
6 s = . SeuZlia Tu ara mkvlevars 0.05 o =
mniSvnelovnebis doniT daaskvnas, rom mweveli adamianis pulsi ufro
maRalia vidre aramwevelis?
19. ori sxvadasxva dasaxelebis sigaretis SemTxveviT SerCeul
30 30 RerSi nikotinis Semcvlelobis donis mixedviT gamoTvlili
Sesabamisi SerCeviTi maxasiaTeblebia: 30 28.6 x = ,
'
1
5.1 s = ;
30
32.9 y = ,
'
2
4.4 s = . aageT 99%-iani ndobis intervali saSualoTa sxvaobisaTvis.
20. jandacvis saministros monacemebiT dazRveuli (Sesabamisad,
dauzRvevuli) mSobiare qalebi samSobiaroSi rCebian saSualod 2.3
dRis (Sesabamisad, 1.9 dRis) ganmavlobaSi. 16 - 16 mSobiare qalisagan
Sedgenili ori jgufis samSobiaroSi gatarebuli dReebis Sesworebu-
li standartuli gadaxra qalebis orive kategoriisaTvis Seadgens 0.6
dRes. 0.01 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT SeamowmeT hipoTeza saSualoTa
tolobis Sesaxeb. aageT 99%-iani ndobis intervali saSualoTa sxvao-
bisaTvis. isargebleT P -mniSvnelobis meTodiT.
21. qvemoT moyvanilia dro, romelic sWirdeba 6 6 TeTr da
yavisfer Tagvs, raTa iswavlos martiv labirinTSi garbena. 0.05 o =
mniSvnelovnebis doniT gaarkvieT iwvevs Tu ara Tagvis feri labiri-
129
nTSi garbenis Sesaswavlad saWiro droSi gansxvavebas? aageT 95%-iani
ndobis intervali saSualoTa sxvaobisaTvis.
TeTri Tagvi 18 24 20 13 15 12
yavisferi Tagvi 25 16 19 14 16 10
22. mkvlevars ainteresebs aris Tu ara gansxvaveba mweveli da
aramweveli adamianebis pulsis ricxvTa dispersiebs Soris. SemTxveviT
SerCeuli 26 mwevelisagan da 18 aramwevelisagan Semdgari ori SerCe-
vis Sesabamisi Sesworebuli SerCeviTi dispersiebia:
' 2
1
36 s = ,
' 2
2
10 s = .
0.05 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT gvaqvs Tu ara sakmarisi safuZveli da-
vaskvnaT, rom dispersiebi gansxvavebulia? CaTvaleT, rom sidide ganaw-
ilebulia normalurad.
23. ginekologis mtkicebiT axalSobili vaJebis simaRleTa cva-
lebadoba gansxvavdeba axalSobili gogonebis simaRleTa cvalebadobis-
agan. SemTxveviT SerCeuli 15 axalSobili vaJis simaRleTa Sesworebu-
li standartuli gadaxra aRmoCnda 1.3 diumi (1 diumi = 2.54 sm), xo-
lo SemTxveviT SerCeuli 15 axalSobili gogonasaTvis ki 0.9 diumi.
0.1 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT SeiZleba Tu ara davadasturoT gineko-
logis mtkicebuleba?
24. mkvlevaris mtkicebiT arteriuli wnevis cvalebadoba Warbw-
onian adamianebSi ufro didia vidre normalurwonian adamianebSi. SemT-
xveviT SerCeul 28 Warbwonian adanmianSi arteriuli wnevis Sesworeb-
uli standartuli gadaxra aRmoCnda 6.2 mm. vercx. sv., xolo 25 nor-
malurwonian adamianSi ki 2.7 mm. vercx. sv.. 0.01 o = mniSvnelovnebis
doniT SeamowmeT mkvlevaris mtkicebuleba.
25. mkvlevars surs Seafasos ori popularuli A da B diet-
is Sedegad pacientTa mier dakarguli wonis dispersia. A dietis mim-
devari SemTxveviT SerCeuli 10 adamianis mier erT TveSi dakarguli
wonebis Sesworebuli standartuli gadaxra aRmoCnda 6.3 funti, xo-
lo B dietis mimdevari SemTxveviT SerCeuli 12 adamianis ki 4.8 fu-
nti. 0.05 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT, SegviZlia Tu ara davaskvnaT,
rom A dietis SemTxvevaSi dakarguli wonis dispersia ufro didia
vidre B dietis SemTxvevaSi?
l e q c i a 10.
Tavi 11. mravalamokrefiani amocanebi. dispersiuli analizi.
11.1. Sesavali.
wina leqciaSi laparaki iyo ori normalurad ganawilebuli po-
pulaciis saSualoebis Sedarebis amocanebze. xSirad saWiroa ufro me-
ti populaciis saSualoebis Sedareba.
130
magaliTi 11.1. janmrTelobis dacvis saministros ainteresebda
axdens, Tu ara, gavlenas da ramdenad, sigaretis moweva filtvebis
funqciurobaze. amisaTvis filtvebis funqciuroba, anu FEF (forced mid-
expiratory flow) sididis mniSvnelobebi gazomil iqna adamianebis eqvs
jgufSi: 1) aramwevelebi (pirobiTad, NS); 2) pasiuri mwevelebi (PS);
3) mwevelebi, romlebic filtvebSi ar uSveben kvamls (NI); 4) susti
mwevelebi (dReSi 1-dan 10 Reramde 20 an meti wlis ganmavlobaSi,
LS); 5) zomierad mwevelebi (dReSi 11-dan 39 Reramde 20 an meti
wlis ganmavlobaSi, MS) da 6) magari mwevelebi (40 da meti Reri
dReSi, 20 an meti wlis ganmavlobaSi, HS). saiteresoa FEF-is saSua-
loebis Sedareba am eqvs jgufSi. Sedegebi mocemulia cxrilSi:
jgufis nomeri
da saxeli
FEF-is saSualo da
standartuli gadaxra (l/w)
SerCevis
moculobebi
1 NS 3.78 0.79 200
2 PS 3.30 0.77 200
3 NI 3.32 0.86 50
4 LS 3.23 0.78 200
5 MS 2.73 0.81 200
6 HS 2.59 0.82 200
t-kriteriumis meTodologia, sakmarisad kargad zogaddeba aseTi
SemTxvevebisaTvis da am meTodologias saxelad hqvia erTfaqtoriani
dispersiuli analizi (SemoklebiT, dispersiuli analizisaTvis xmaro-
ben ANOVA-s, Sesabamisi inglisuri terminis Semoklebidan Analysis
of variance). am tipis amocanebSi mocemulia n
i
, i =1,2,,k, moculobis k
SerCeva (jgufi); aRvniSnoT y
ij
-Ti i-uri jgufis j-uri monacemi, roml-
is ukan mdgomi Y
ij
SemTxveviTi sididisaTvis vuSvebT, rom samarTliania
Semdegi modeli:
Y
ij
= + o
i
+ X
ij
, (11.1)
sadac mudmivi ricxvia, o
i
aris i-uri jgufis maxasiaTebeli faqto-
ri (efeqti), romelic SeiZleba iyos deterministuli (araSemTxveviTi)
an SemTxveviTi da X
ij
aris SemTxveviTi sidide, romelsac Secdomas
uwodeben da romelic ganawilebulia normalurad saSualoTi 0 da
dispersiiT o
2
. iTvleba agreTve, rom 0
1
=
=
k
i
i
o da maSasadame, Y
ij
SemTx-
veviTi sidide ganawilebulia normalurad saSualoTi + o
i
da dispe-
rsiiT o
2
. aseT pirobebSi amboben, rom (11.1)-iT gansazRvrulia erTfaq-
toriani ANOVA modeli. SevniSnoT, rom aseT amocanebSi adgili aqvs
ori tipis variaciulobas: variaciulobas jgufebs Soris da variaciu-
lobas jgufebis SigniT. (11.1)-iT gansazRrul modelSi gaiazreba,
rogorc yvela jgufis gaerTianebiT miRebuli SerCevis Sesabamisi pop-
ulaciis saSualo. o
i
sididis azri is aris, rom is warmoadgens gans-
131
xvavebas i-uri jgufis saSualosa da saerTo saSualos Soris, dabol-
os, X
ij
warmoadgens i-uri jgufis + o
i
saSualodan SemTxveviT gadax-
ras (Secdomas).
intuiciurad, 11.1 magaliTSi FEF-is sidide SeiZleba gaviazroT
rogorc FEF-is saerTo saSualo sidides damatebuli mwevelTa TiTo-
euli jgufis efeqti da damatebuli SemTxveviTi variaciuloba TiToe-
uli jgufis SigniT.
11.2. hipoTezaTa Semowmeba erTfaqtorian ANOVA modelSi.
deterministuli efeqtebis SemTxveva.
nulovani hipoTeza am amocanaSi yalibdeba ase: yvela jgufs
aqvs erTnairi saSualo, anu radgan Cven davuSviT, rom 0
1
=
=
k
i
i
o , nul-
ovani hipoTeza iqneba: H
0
: o
1
= o
2
== o
k
= 0, xolo alternativa as-
eTia: H
1
: arsebobs i, i = 1, 2,, k, rom o
i
= 0. aRvniSnoT

=
=
i
n
j
ij
i
i
y
n
y
1
1
simboloTi i-uri jgufis SerCeviTi saSualo da

=
=
k
i
i i
y n
n
y
1
1
simbo-
loTi yvela monacemis saerTo saSualo, sadac n = n
1
+ n
2
++ n
k
, cxa-
dia, aris yvela monacemis gaerTianebiT miRebuli SerCevis moculoba.
individualuri monacemis gadaxra saerTo saSualosagan, SeiZleba ganv-
ixiloT, rogorc ori gadaxris jami, romlidanac pirveli gviCvenebs
individualur gadaxras jgufuri saSualosagan, xolo meore ki jguf-
is saSualos gadaxras saerTo saSualosagan:
y
ij
- y = ( y
ij
-
i
y ) + (
i
y - y ). (11.2)
amitom cxadia, rom Tu (11.2)-is orive mxares aviyvanT kvadrat-
Si, avjamavT (orive mxares) yvela i da j-Ti da gaviTvaliswinebT, rom
marjvena mxaris Sereuli wevrebis jami 0-is tolia, miviRebT:
= =

k
i
n
j
ij
i
y y
1 1
2
) ( =

= =

k
i
n
j
i ij
i
y y
1 1
2
) ( +
= =

k
i
n
j
i
i
y y
1 1
2
) ( . (11.3)
rogorc vxedavT, (11.3)-is marcxena mxareSi dgas erTiani saSua-
losagan, yvela monacemis gaerTianebiT miRebuli SerCevis y saSualo-
sagan, gadaxrebis kvadratebis jami (gaixseneT SerCeviTi dispersiis ag-
ebis gza). am sidides mokled aRvniSnavT tss-iT (Total Sam of Squares).
aseve, Tu davakvirdebiT (11.3)-is marjvena mxaris pirvel Sesakrebs, Si-
da jami warmoadgens i-uri jgufis saSualosagan gadaxrebis kvadrateb-
is jams. amitom (11.3)-is marjvena mxaris pirvel Sesakrebs vuwodoT
gadaxra jgufis SigniT; Sesabamisad, is aRvniSnoT wss-iT (Within Sam
of Squares). bolos, (11.3)-is marjvena mxaris meore Sesakrebi, ramdena-
132
dac is warmoadgens jgufuri saSualoebis saerTo saSualosagan gada-
xrebis kvadratebis jams, SeiZleba gaviazroT, rogorc jgufTaSoris
gadaxris sazomi da aRvniSnoT is bss-iT (Between Sam of Squares). maSa-
sadame, sabolood,
tss =

= =

k
i
n
j
ij
i
y y
1 1
2
) ( , wss =

= =

k
i
n
j
i ij
i
y y
1 1
2
) ( , bss =
= =

k
i
n
j
i
i
y y
1 1
2
) ( (11.4)
da (11.3) SeiZleba mokled ase SeiZleba gadavweroT: tss = wss + bss.
SevTanxmdeT, rom im SemTxveviT sidideebs, romelTa konkretul
realizaciebsac warmoadgens tss , wss , bss ricxvebi, Cven Sesabamisi di-
di asoebiT aRvniSnavT, anu TSS, WSS, BSS warmoadgenen SemTxveviT si-
dideebs, romlebic miiReba (11.2) (11.4) gamosaxulebebSi yvela y
ij
-is
SecvliT Y
ij
-ebiT.
moxerxebulia, gamoTvlebis gamartivebis mizniT, SemoviRoT Sem-
degi aRniSvnebi:
i i
n
j
ij i
y n y y
i
=
=
-
1
- monacemebis jami i-ur jgufSi; (11.5)
y n y y
k
i
n
j
ij
i
=
= =
- -
1 1
- monacemebis jami yvela jgufSi. (11.6)
maSin advili saCvenebelia, rom
tss =
n
y
y y y
k
i
n
j
ij
k
i
n
j
ij
i i
2
1 1
2
1 1
2
) (
- -
= = = =
=

. (11.7)
bss =

=
- - -
= =
=
k
i i
i
k
i
n
j
i
n
y
n
y
y y
i
1
2 2
1 1
2
) ( . (11.8)
cxadia, rom am formulebis gamoyeneba kargia maSin, roca mocem-
ulia uSualod monacemebi. magram Tu monacemebi dajgufebulia saSua-
loebisa da dispersiebis mixedviT, rogorc es gakeTebulia 11.1 magal-
iTSi, maSin ukeTesia gamoviyenoT Semdegi formulebi:
bss =
2
1 1
2
1
.
|
\
|

= =
k
i
i i
k
i
i i
y n
n
y n . (11.9)
wss =

=

k
i
i i
s n
1
2
) 1 ( . (11.10)
gamovTvaloT zemoT SemoRebuli sidideebis ricxviTi mniSvnel-
obebi 11.1 magaliTisaTvis:
bss = [2003.78
2
+2003.3
2
+503.32
2
+2003.23
2
+2002.73
2
+2002.59
2
]-
- (1/1050)[2003.78+2003.3+503.32+2003.23+2002.73+2002.59]
2
= 184.38,
wss = 1990.79
2
+1990.77
2
+490.86
2
+1990.78
2
+1990.81
2
+1990.82
2
= 663.87.
133
SemoviRoT kidev Semdegi sidideebi: bms = bss /(k -1) jgufTaSo-
risi kvadratebis saSualo (Between Mean Square) da wms = wss /(n - k)
jgufis SigniT kvadratebis saSualo (Within Mean Square).
intuiciurad, statistikuri kriteriumis asagebad ase vmsjel-
obT: Tu bms/wms Sefardeba didia, maSin jgufebi sxvadasxva saSua-
lo yofaqcevis individebiT yofila dakompleqtebuli da maSasadame,
H
0
hipoTeza unda uarvyoT da piriqiT, Tu bms/wms Sefardeba mci-
rea, maSin jgufebi erTnairi saSualo yofaqceviT xasiaTdeba da ma-
Sasadame, H
0
hipoTezis uaryofis safuZveli ar unda gvqondes.
statistikuri kriteriumi damyarebulia swored F = BMS / WMS
Sefardebaze, romelsac mtkicdeba, rom rogorc (11.1) modeliT agebul
SemTxveviT sidides, aqvs F(k-1,n-k)-ganawileba.
sabolood, statistikuri kriteriumi ase yalibdeba:
Tu dasaxelebuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis F statistikis
dakvirvebuli f = bms / wms mniSvnelobisaTvis
f > F
k 1,n k, 1- o
,
maSin H
0
hipoTezas uarvyofT, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, amis safuZveli
ara gvaqvs. Sesabamisi p-mniSvneloba tolia
p = P{ F
k 1,n k
> f }. (11.11)
davubrundeT 11.1 magaliTs da vnaxoT, ra Sedegs mogvcems es
kriteriumi. rogorc vnaxeT, bss = 184.38, wss = 663.87, amitom
bms = bss /(k -1)=184.38/(6-1)=36.875,
wms = wss /(n - k) = 663.87/(1050-6) = 0.636
da kriteriumis statistikis ricxviTi f mniSvneloba tolia:
f = bms / wms = 36.875/0.636 = 57.979.
F(5,120)-ganawilebis cxrilebidan vpoulobT, F
5, 120, 0.999
= 4.42.
amitom F
5, 1044, 0.999
< F
5, 120, 0.999
= 4.42 < 57.979 = f, saidanac davaskvniT,
rom p = P{ F
5 , 1044
> f }= P{ F
5 , 120
> f }= P{ F
5 , 120
> 57.979}< 0.001, anu
Sedegi statistikurad mniSvnelovania da maSasadame, H
0
hipoTezas,
rom yvela jgufs aqvs erTnairi saSualo, o = 0.001 mniSvnelovnebis
doniTac ki uarvyofT.
11.3. jgufTa Sedareba erTfaqtorian ANOVA modelSi.
wyvilTa Sedarebis t -kriteriumi.
wina nawilSi H
0
: o
1
= o
2
== o
k
= 0 hipoTezis uaryofis SemT-
xvevaSi Cven vaskvniT, rom jgufebis saSualo yofaqceva ar aris erTna-
iri, magram kerZod romeli jgufebia gansxvavebuli, amas ver vambobT.
axla swored am sakiTxze gvinda visaubroT. H
0
hipoTezis uaryofa ni-
Snavs imas, rom arsebobs sul cota ori jgufi, romelTa saSualoebic
134
mniSvnelovnad gansxvavebulia. davuSvaT, esenia m-uri da l-uri jgufe-
bi. (11.1) modelis mixedviT, yoveli i-saTvis

=
=
i
n
j
ij
i
i
Y
n
Y
1
1
( i=1,2,,k)
SemTxveviTi sidide normaluradaa ganawilebuli saSualoTi, + o
i
da dispersiiT, o
2
/n
i
. amitom gasagebia, rom
l m
Y Y ~ N(o
m
- o
l
; o
2
(1/n
m
+1/n
l
), (11.12)
xolo H
0
hipoTezis samarTlianobis SemTxvevaSi,
l m
Y Y ~ N(0 ; o
2
(1/n
m
+1/n
l
). (11.13)
(11.13) Tanafardobidan gamomdinare, cnobili o-s SemTxvevaSi,
cxadia, kriteriumis statistikad aviRebdiT
) / 1 / 1 (
2
l m
l m
n n
Y Y
+

o
SemTx-
veviTi sidides, romelsac cxadia eqneba standartuli normaluri gana-
wileba. magram rogorc wesi, o ucnobia. maSin rogor SevafasoT es si-
dide? amisaTvis gavixsenoT Tu rogor viqceodiT saSualoTa tolobis
tkriteriumis agebisas oramokrefian amocanaSi toli, ucnobi dispers-
iebis SemTxvevaSi. maSin o
2
dispersias vafasebdiT gaerTianebuli SerCe-
vis safuZvelze Semdegnairad:
2
) 1 ( ) 1 (
2 1
2
1 2
2
1 1
2
,
2 1
2
+
+
=
n n
S n S n
S
n n
n n
a
.
axla, roca laparakia k (da ara or) cal amokrefaze, moviqceT
analogiurad, anu SevkriboT jgufebis Tavisuflebis xarisxebiT Sewo-
nili dispersiebi da gavyoT Tavisuflebis xarisxebis jamze:
1 2
2
2 2 2
1 1 2 2
2 2
, ,...,
1 2
( 1) ( 1) ... ( 1)
1 1 ... 1
k
a k
n n k kn
n n n
k
n S n S n S
S S
n n n
+ + +
= =
+ + +
2
1 1
( ( 1) ) /( )
i
k k
i in i
i i
n S n k
= =
=

, (11.14)
saidanac (11.10)-sa da WMSis ganmartebiT sabolood davaskvniT, rom
S
2
= WSS/(n-k) = WMS. (11.15)
Sesabamisad, kriteriumis statistikas ucnobi dispersiis SemTx-
vevaSi eqneba Semdegi saxe:
) / 1 / 1 (
,
l m
l m
l m
n n WMS
Y Y
T
+

, (11.16)
romelsac mtkicdeba, rom aqvs t(n-k)-ganawileba da H
0
: o
m
= o
l
hipoTe-
zis Sesamowmebeli kriteriumi H
1
: o
m
= o
l
alternativis winaaRmdeg
ase Camoyalibdeba:
m,l
statistik-
is dakvirvebuli t
m ,l
mniSvneloba akmayofilebs Semdeg pirobas
t
n-k, o/2
s t
m ,l
s t
n-k, 1-o/2
, (11.17)
135
0
: o
m
= o
l
hipoTezis uaryofis safuZ-
veli ara gvaqvs, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi ki mas uarvyofT. Sesabamisi p-
mniSvneloba ase gamoiTvleba:
p = 2 P{T
n-k
< t
m ,l
}, t
m ,l
< 0 da p = 2 P{T
n-k
> t
m ,l
}, t
m ,l
> 0. (11.18)
davubrundeT 11.1 magaliTs da vnaxoT aris Tu ara statistiku-
rad mniSvnelovani gansxvaveba aramwevelebsa da Tundac pasiur mwevel-
ebs Soris. amisaTvis gamovTvaloT T
1,2
statistikis mniSvneloba: t
1,2
=
= (3.78-3.3)/[0.636(1/200+1/200)]
1/2
= 6.02 da p = 2 P{t
1044
> t
1,2
}< 0.001.
Sesabamisad, gansxvaveba aramwevelebsa da pasiur mwevelebs Sorisac ki
statistikurad mniSvnelovania. analogiurad Sedardeba danarCeni wyvi-
lebic. yvela wyvilis Sedareba mocemulia Semdeg cxrilSi:
Sesadarebeli
wyvilebi
statistikis ricxviTi
mniSvneloba
p-mniSvneloba,
mniSvnelovneba
NS, PS t
1,2
= 6.02 < 0.001
NS, NI t
1,3
= 3.65 < 0.001
NS, LS t
1,4
= 6.90 < 0.001
NS, MS t
1,5
= 13.17 < 0.001
NS, HS t
1,6
= 14.92 < 0.001
PS, NI t
2,3
= -0.16 umniSvneloa
PS, LS t
2,4
= 0.88 umniSvneloa
PS, MS t
2,5
= 7.15 < 0.001
PS, HS t
2,6
= 8.90 < 0.001
NI, LS t
3,4
= 0.71 umniSvneloa
NI, MS t
3,5
= 4.68 < 0.001
NI, HS t
3,6
= 5.79 < 0.001
LS, MS t
4,5
= 6.27 < 0.001
LS, HS t
4,6
= 8.03 < 0.001
MS, HS t
5,6
= 1.76 umniSvneloa
SevniSnoT, rom (11.14)-Si Cven ucnobi dispersia o
2
SevafaseT
yvela jgufis monacenebis gamoyenebiT, da ara mxolod Sesadarebeli
jgufebis monacemebis saSualebiT, rogorc es 10.3 punqtSi xdeboda. es
gamowveulia imiT, rom o
2
yvela jgufisaTvis Cveni modelis mixedviT,
erTidaigivea da 10.3-Si Catarebuli msjelobis msgavsad (SerCevis moc-
ulobis zrda iwvevs saSualos standartuli Secdomis Semcirebas)
yvela jgufis gaerTianebiT miRebuli Sefaseba ukeTesia, vidre mxol-
od ori jgufiT. zogjer, roca yovel jgufs Tavisi (sxvadasxva) dis-
persia aqvs, maSin wyvilebis Sesadareblad unda gamoviyenoT 10.5 punq-
tSi SemoTavazebuli wyvilTa t-kriteriumi.
is faqti, rom (11.16)-iT gansazRvrul SemTxveviT T
m , l
sidides
aqvs t(n-k)-ganawileba, Cven SegviZlia gamoviyenoT ndobis intervalebis
136
asagebad jgufebis WeSmarit saSualoTa
m
-
l
sxvaobisaTvis. 1 o ndo-
bis albaTobis mqone anu (1 o )100%-iani ndobis intervals aqvs Semd-
egi saxe:
.
|
\
|
+ + +

l m
k n l m
l m
k n l m
n n
S t Y Y
n n
S t Y Y
1 1
;
1 1
2 / 1 , 2 / 1 , o o
, (11.19)
sadac rogorc (11.15)-dan gvaxsovs, S
2
= WSS/(n-k) = WMS.
11.4. wrfivi kontrastebi.
ganxilva daviwyoT 11.1 magaliTis Semdegi modifikaciiT.
magaliTi 11.2. davuSvaT, Cven gvinda filtvebis funqciurobis
Sedareba erTad aRebuli bolo sami jgufis mwevelebsa (am jgufis pi-
robiTi aRniSvnaa IS (inhale smokers)) da aramwevelebis jgufebs Soris,
Tu gamokvlevebiT dadgenilia, rom am jgufis mwevelebis 70% aris
MS jgufis mweveli, 20% aris HS jgufis mweveli da 10% LS
jgufis mweveli. rogor SevadaroT IS tipis mwevelebi rogorc jgufi
aramwevelebis jgufs?
amisaTvis SemoviRoT e.w. wrfivi kontrastebis cneba. wrfivi ko-
ntrasti (igi aRiniSneba L asoTi) ewodeba jgufTa saSualoebis nebis-
mier wrfiv kombinacias
=
=
k
i
i i
Y c L
1
, romlisaTvisac 0
1
=
=
k
i
i
c . (11.20)
SevniSnoT, rom c
i
koeficientebis specialuri SerCevis xarjze
Cven SegviZlia miviRoT ukve Seswavlili saSualoTa sxvaobebi. marTl-
ac, Tu aviRebT c
m
= 1, c
l
= -1, xolo yvela danarCeni i-ebisaTvis c
i
= 0,
maSin cxadia, rom 0
1
=
=
k
i
i
c da (11.20) mogvcems L =
l m
Y Y . Tu davubr-
undebiT 11.2 magaliTs, maSin is, rac Cven gvainteresebs aris Semdegi
tipis sxvaoba: L =
6 5 4 1
2 . 0 7 . 0 1 . 0 Y Y Y Y , anu wrfivi kontrasteb-
is enaze rom vTqvaT, Cven gvainteresebs wrfivi kontrasti Semdegi ko-
eficientebiT: c
1
= 1, c
2
= c
3
= 0, c
4
= -0.1, c
5
= -0.7, c
6
= -0.2.
yovelive zemoTqmulidan gamomdinare, romelime jgufebis (an ma-
Ti gaerTianebebis) Sedarebis amocana, sabolood daiyvaneba imis Semow-
mebaze, aris Tu ara ama Tu im wrfivi kontrastis
L
saSualo 0-is
toli, anu Cveni amocanaa SevamowmoT H
0
:
L
= 0 hipoTezis samarTlian-
oba H
1
:
L
= 0 alternativis winaaRmdeg. am amocanis gadasaWrelad Sev-
niSnoT, rom 0
1
=
=
k
i
i
c pirobis gamo

= = = = =
= + = + = =
k
i
i i
k
i
i i
k
i
i
k
i
i i
k
i
i i L
c c c c Y E c EL
1 1 1 1 1
) ( o o o , (11.21)
137

= = = =
= = =
.
|
\
|
=
k
i i
i
k
i i
i
k
i
i i
k
i
i i
n
c
n
c Y D c Y c D DL
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
o
o
. (11.22)
cxadia, rom ucnobi o
2
Sefasdeba (11.15) tolobiT gansazRvru-
li S
2
sididiT da kriteriumis statistikas eqneba Semdegi saxe:
k
i i
i
L
n
c
S
L
T
1
2
2
, (11.23)
romelsac mtkicdeba, rom aqvs t(n-k)ganawileba da amitom statistiu-
ri kriteriumi ase Camoyalibdeba:
Tu mocemuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis T
L
statistikis da-
kvirvebuli t
L
mniSvneloba akmayofilebs pirobas
t
n k , o/2
s t
L
s t
n k , 1- o/2
, (11.24)
0
:
L
= 0 hipoTezis uaryofis safuZve-
li ara gvaqvs, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, mas uarvyofT. Sesabamisi p-mniS-
vneloba ase gamoiTvleba:
p = 2 P{T
n-k
< t
L
}, Tu t
L
< 0 da p = 2 P{T
n-k
> t
L
}, Tu t
L
> 0. (11.25)
davubrundeT 11.2 magaliTs da gavixsenoT, rom s
2
= 0.636. garda
amisa, L =
6 5 4 1
2 . 0 7 . 0 1 . 0 Y Y Y Y wrfivi kontrastis SerCeviTi l
mniSvneloba tolia l = 3.78 0.1 3.23 0.7 2.73 0.2 2.59 = 1.03. amitom
2 2 2 2
1.03
14.69
0.636 (1 / 200 ( 0.1) / 200 ( 0.7) / 200 ( 0.2) / 200)
L
t = ~
+ + +
.
cxadia, rom p = 2 P{T
1044
> 14.69}< 2 P{T
120
> 14.69}< 2 0.0005 = 0.001,
saidanac davaskvniT, rom o = 0.001 mniSvnelovnebis doniT H
0
:
L
= 0 hi-
poTeza unda uarvyoT, anu IS jgufis mwevelebs gacilebiT dabali fi-
ltvebis funqciuroba aqvT, vidre aramwevelebs.
wrfivi kontrastebis gamoyeneba SeiZleba maSinac, roca gansxva-
vebul jgufebs dozebis gansxvavebuli doneebi SeesabamebaT da kontra-
stis koeficientebi SeirCeva kerZo dozebis Sesabamisad. es midgoma
mniSvnelovania maSin, roca SerCevaTa moculobebi araa didi da jgufe-
bis yvela wyvilis Sedareba ar iZleva mniSvnelovan gansxvavebas, magr-
am mTlianobaSi monacemebs aqvT mkveTrad gamokveTili mimarTulebis
trendi. ganvixiloT Semdegi
magaliTi 11.3. davuSvaT, Cven gvainteresebs axdens Tu ara mniSv-
nelovan gavlenas dRis ganmavlobaSi moweuli sigaretis Rerebis rao-
denoba FEFis sidideze IS jgufis mwevelebisaTvis.
amoxsna. rogorc gvaxsovs, susti mwevelebi dReSi 1-dan 10 Re-
ramde ewevian. CavTvaloT, rom saSualod isini (1+10)/2 = 5.5 Rers ewe-
vian. aseve,Lzomierad mwevelebi dReSi 11-dan 39 Reramde, anu saSual-
od (11+39)/2 = 25 Rers ewevian da CavTvaloT, rom magari mwevelebi
138
zustad 40 Rers ewevian (da ara mets) dRis ganmavlobaSi. maSin Cveni
amocanaa L =
6 5 4
40 25 5 . 5 Y Y Y + + kontrastis statistikuri mniSvnel-
ovnebis Semowmeba. magram rogorc vxedavT, kontrastis koeficientebis
jami 5.5+25+40 = 70.5 da is araa 0-is toli. imisaTvis, rom es piroba
Segvisruldes, TiToeuli kontrastis koeficienti SevamciroT koefi-
cientebis jamis mesamediT (radgan sam jgufzea laparaki), anu
70.5/3=23.5 sididiT da statistikuri mniSvnelovnebis Sesamowmeblad
ganvixiloT Semdegi wrfivi kontrasti
4 5 6 4 5 6
(5.5 23.5) (25 23.5) (40 23.5) 18 1.5 16.5 L Y Y Y Y Y Y = + + = + + .
wina amocanis msgavsad, s
2
= 0.636, L wrfivi kontrastis SerCevi-
Ti l mniSvneloba tolia l = 18 3.23 + 1.5 2.73 + 16.5 2.59 = -11.31. am-
itom
19 . 8
38 . 1
31 . 11
) 200 / ) 5 . 16 ( 200 / ) 5 . 1 ( 200 / ) 18 (( 636 . 0
31 . 11
2 2 2
~
~
+ +

=
L
t .
cxadia, rom p = 2 P{T
1044
< -8.19}< 2 P{T
120
< -8.19}< 2 0.0005 = 0.001,
saidanac davaskvniT, rom o = 0.001 mniSvnelovnebis doniT H
0
:
L
= 0 hi-
poTeza unda uarvyoT, anu IS jgufis mwevelebSi gacilebiT dabali
filtvebis funqciuroba aqvT maT vinc mets ewevea.
11.5. mravlobiTi Sedareba (bonferonisa da Sefes meTodebi).
rogorc 11.3 punqtSi vnaxeT, dispersiuli analizis Catarebis
Semdeg H
0
hipoTezis uaryofis SemTxvevaSi saWiro gaxda wyvilTa Sed-
areba, imisaTvis, rom gagvego kerZod romel jgufTa generaluri saSu-
aloebi iyo gansxvavebuli. rogorc gvaxsovs, k = 6-is SemTxvevaSi Cven
dagvWirda 15 aseTi wyvilis ganxilva. sazogadod, gasagebia, rom dagv-
Wirdeba k(k 1)/2 aseTi wyvilis ganxilva, rac k -s didi mniSvnelobe-
bisaTvis sakmaod Sromatevadi da mouxerxebeli saqmea. ra Tqma unda,
kargi iqneboda iseTi kriteriumis ageba, romelic jgufebis konkretu-
li wyvilisaTvis ki ar daiWerda gansxvavebas generalur saSualoebs
Soris, aramed, erTdroulad yvela wyvilisaTvis. aseTi kriteriumebi
arsebobs da maT mravlobiTi Sedarebis kriteriumebs eZaxian. am nawil-
Si Cven SevexebiT or aseT kriteriums, bonferonisa da Sefes kriteri-
umebs. pirveli maTgani gamoiyeneba uSualod jgufTa wyvilebisaTvis,
xolo meore ki zogadad wrfivi kontrastebisaTvis.
11.5.1. bonferonis mravlobiTi Sedarebis meTodi.
es meTodi formalurad Zalian hgavs 11.3 punqtSi ganxilul
wyvilTa Sedarebis t-kriteriums, magram maT Soris aris erTi mniSvne-
lovani gansxvaveba, romelsac kriteriumis Camoyalibebisas aRvniSnavT.
jer erTi, Cven kvlav gvinda H
0
: o
m
= o
l
hipoTezis Semowmeba H
1
: o
m
=
139
o
l
alternativis winaaRmdeg, mxolod axla ukve ara konkretuli m da
l-saTvis, aramed yvela m=l-saTvis. kriteriumis statistikas isev iseTi
saxe aqvs, rogorc (11.16)-Si:
) / 1 / 1 (
,
l m
l m
l m
n n WMS
Y Y
T
+

, (11.26)
romelsac isev aqvs t(n-k)-ganawileba. magram dasaxelebuli o mniSvnel-
ovnebis donisaTvis T
m,l
statistikis dakvirvebuli t
m,l
mniSvneloba un-
da Sedardes t(n-k)-ganawilebis ara o/2 da 1-o/2 kvantilebs, aramed
Sesabamisad, o
*
/2 da 1-o
*
/2 kvantilebs, sadac
o
*
= o /(k(k-1)/2). (11.27)
marTlac, rogorc vTqviT, k jgufisaTvis Sesadarebeli wyvileb-
is raodenobaa k(k-1)/2; davuSvaT, yvela wyvili Sedarebulia o
*
mniSv-
nelovnebis doniT. vTqvaT, E aris xdomiloba imisa, rom Sedareba erTi
mainc wyvilisaTvis statistikurad mniSvnelovania. Cven gvinda, rom
P{E}= o. rogor avarCioT o
*
? cxadia, rom Tu yoveli wyvilis Sedar-
ebiT miRebuli Sedegi damoukidebelia, maSin P{E
C
}= (1-o
*
)
k(k-1)/2
, saida-
nac davaskvniT, rom o
*
ise unda avarCioT, rom 1-o = (1-o
*
)
k(k-1)/2
. mag-
ram sakmarisad mcire o
*
- saTvis (1-o
*
)
k(k-1)/2
~ 1- (k(k-1)/2)o
*
da ami-
tom 1-o = 1- (k(k-1)/2)o
*
gantolebis amoxsniT vRebulobT (11.27)-s.
Sesabamisad, bonferonis statistikuri kriteriumi ase yalibdeba:
m,l
statistik-
is dakvirvebuli t
m,l
2 / ,
*
o k n
t
s t
m ,l
s
2 / 1 ,
*
o k n
t , (11.28)
0
: o
m
= o
l
hipoTezis uaryofis safuZ-
veli ara gvaqvs, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi mas uarvyofT.
SevniSnoT, rom radgan o
*
= o /(k(k-1)/2) < o,
2 / ,
*
o k n
t
< t
n-k, o/2
da
2 / 1 ,
*
o k n
t > t
n-k, 1-o/2
da amitom (11.28)-Si sazRvrebi (11.17)-Tan SedarebiT
ufro farTea. garda amisa, es sazRvrebi damokidebulia k-ze da k-s
zrdasTan erTad sazRvrebi farTovdeba. cxadia, rom es nakli mosalo-
dnelia, radgan axali sazRvrebi pasuxs agebs yvela m da l-saTvis,
maSin, roca, (11.17)-iT ganmartebuli sazRvrebi pasuxismgebelia mxo-
lod konkrertuli m da l-saTvis.
bonferonis meTodis gamoyenebis sailustraciod ganixiloT Sem-
degi
magaliTi 11.4. gamoiyeneT mravlobiTi Sedarebis bonferonis meT-
odi 11.1 magaliTis cxrilSi warmodgenili monacemebisaTvis da gaakeT-
eT Sesabamisi daskvnebi.
amoxsna. vTqvaT, o = 0.05. maSin radgan jgufebis raodenoba eqv-
sia, anu k = 6, amitom (11.27) formulis mixedviT, o
*
= 0.05/((65)/2) =
140
=0.0033. isev n - k = 1044 da
2 / 1 ,
*
o k n
t = t
1044, 0.99833
kvantilis sapovnelad
gamoviyenoT normaluri aproqsimacia (radgan 1044 sakmarisad didi ri-
cxvia), anu is faqti, rom t
1044, 0.99833
~ z
0.99833
= 2.935. gavixsenoT 11.3
punqtSi mocemuli wyvilTa Sedarebis cxrili. yvela statistikurad
mniSvnelovan SemTxvevaTa Soris absoluturi mniSvnelobiT yvelaze pa-
tara SerCeviTi mniSvnelobaa 3.65 da isic ki metia 2.935-ze, rac imas
niSnavs, rom isini bonferonis meTodis mixedviTac rCebian statistik-
urad mniSvnelovnad. ufro metic, is wyvilebi, romelTa Soris gansxv-
avebac statistikurad umniSvneloa, bonferonis meTodis mixedviTac
arian statistikurad umniSvnelo. SevniSnoT, rom im cxrilis agebisas
rom gamogveyenebina o = 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis done, maSin kritikuli
are iqneboda | t | > 1.96, maSin roca, rogorc vnaxeT, bonferonis meTod-
is SemTxvevaSi, es area | t | > 2.935.
11.5.2. Sefes mravlobiTi Sedarebis meTodi.
am punqtSi Cveni amocanaa SevamowmoT H
0
:
L
= 0 hipoTezis sama-
rTlianoba H
1
:
L
= 0 alternativis winaaRmdeg, mxolod yvelanairi
wrfivi kontrastebisaTvis. Cven isev gvaqvs k jgufi, moculobebiT n
i
da n = n
1
+ n
2
++ n
k
. kriteriumis statistikas isev is saxe aqvs, rac
11.4 punqtSi, anu
k
i i
i
L
n
c
S
L
T
1
2
2
, (11.29)
romlis dakvirvebuli t
L
mniSvneloba (11.24)-gan gansxvavebiT, unda Se-
dardes (rogorc es Sefem aCvena) (11.30)-iT ganmartebul sazRvrebs,
xolo Sefes statistikuri kriteriumi Semdegnairad yalibdeba:
Tu mocemuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis T
L
statistikis da-
kvirvebuli t
L
-
o

1 , , 1
) 1 (
k n k
F k s t
L
s
o

1 , , 1
) 1 (
k n k
F k , (11.30)
0
:
L
= 0 hipoTezis uaryofis safuZve-
li ara gvaqvs, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi mas uarvyofT.
(11.29) da (11.30) Tanafardobebidan advilad igeba ndobis inte-
rvali WeSmariti L kontrastisaTvis (iseve, rogorc es gakeTebulia
(11.19)-Si):
(l -
2
2
1, ,1
1
( 1)
k
i
k n k
i
i
c
s k F
n
o
=

, l +
2
2
1, ,1
1
( 1)
k
i
k n k
i
i
c
s k F
n
o
=

). (11.31)
Sefes meTodis gamoyenebis sailustraciod ganixiloT Semdegi
141
magaliTi 11.5. gamoiyeneT mravlobiTi Sedarebis Sefes meTodi
11.1 magaliTis cxrilSi warmodgenili monacemebisaTvis da gaakeTeT
Sesabamisi daskvnebi.
amoxsna. rogorc 11.3 magaliTidan gvaxsovs, t
L
= -8.19. (11.30)-dan
gvaqvs 32 . 3 21 . 2 5 5 5 ) 1 (
95 . 0 , , 5 95 . 0 , 1044 , 5 1 , , 1
= = ~ =

F F F k
k n k o
.
radganac -8.19 < -3.32, amitom o =0.05 mniSvnelovnebis doniT H
0
:
L
=
= 0 hipoTezas uarvyofT.
11.6. hipoTezaTa Semowmeba erTfaqtorian ANOVA modelSi
SemTxveviTi efeqtebis dros.
rogorc 11.1 punqtSi aRvniSneT, erTfaqtorian ANOVA model-
Si, Y
ij
= + o
i
+ X
ij
, i-uri jgufis maxasiaTebeli o
i
faqtori (efeqti),
SeiZleba iyos deterministuli an SemTxveviTi. 11.2 da 11.3 punqtebi
exeboda deterministuli o
i
efeqtebis SemTxvevas. am nawilSi Cven Se-
viswavliT erTfaqtorian ANOVA models, romelSic o
i
efeqtebi Sem-
TxveviTi sidideebia, romlebic damoukidebelia X
ij
SemTxveviTi sidide-
ebisgan da romlebic ganawilebulia normalurad saSualoTi 0 da dis-
persiiT
2
A
o . aseT models saxelad hqvia SemTxveviT efeqtebiani, erT-
faqtoriani ANOVA modeli. SevniSnoT, rom am modelSi saerTo sa-
Sualos emateba (normaluri) SemTxveviTi sidide o
i
da maSasadame,
sxvadasxva dakvirvebaSi gaCndeba o
i
-is sxvadasxva SerCeviTi mniSvnelo-
ba. amitom dakvirvebad obieqtebs (individebs) Soris gansxvaveba damok-
idebulia am SemTxveviTi efeqtis gafantulobis xarisxze, anu o
i
SemT-
xveviTi sididis
2
A
o dispersiis mniSvnelobaze: Tu is didia, maSin in-
dividebs Soris gansxvaveba didia da Tu is mcirea, maSin individebi
faqtiurad ar gansxvavdebian. es efeqti swrafad SesamCnevi rom ga-
xdes, gamovTvaloT axal modelSi Y
ij
SemTxveviTi sididis dispersia:
DY
ij
= D + Do
i
+ DX
ij
= o
2
+
2
A
o . rogorc vxedavT, deterministul efeq-
tebiani modelisagan gansxvavebiT, dispersias gauCnda damatebiTi Sesak-
rebi
2
A
o . statistikuri amocanac, yovelive zemoTqmulis gaTvaliswin-
ebiT, swored am Sesakrebis mimarT yalibdeba: nulovani hipoTezaa, rom
H
0
:
2
A
o = 0, anu SemTxveviTi efeqtebi umniSvneloa, xolo alternativa,
cxadia iqneba H
1
:
2
A
o > 0, anu SemTxveviTi efeqtebi mniSvnelovania. am
modelSi ganixilaven or SemTxvevas: roca yvela jgufis SerCeviTi mo-
culobebi tolia (e.w. balansirebuli SemTxveva) da roca isini gansxv-
avebulia (Sesabamisad, arabalansirebuli SemTxveva).
advili saCvenebelia, rom ANOVA-s am modelSi
E(WMS) = o
2
. (11.32)
aseve, balansirebul SemTxvevaSi,
142
E(BMS) = o
2
+ q
2
A
o , (11.33)
sadac q n
1
= n
2
= = n
k
, xolo arabalansirebul SemTxvevaSi,
E(BMS) = o
2
+ n
0

2
A
o , (11.34)
sadac
.
|
\
|

=

=
k
i
i
n n
k n
n
1
2 2
0
) 1 (
1
, (11.35)
xolo n n
1
+ n
2
+ + n
k
. cxadia, rom Tu (11.35)-Si yvela n
i
-is aviR-
ebT q-s tols, maSin n
0
= q (SeamowmeT!), sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT,
(11.34) warmoadgens (11.33)-is ganzogadebas. zogad SemTxvevaSi, mtkicd-
eba, rom n
0
< n n/k. Tumca, Cveulebriv, am sidideebs Soris gansxvaveba
mcirea. kriteriumis statistikad isev viyenebT F = BMS / WMS stati-
stikas, romelsac aqvs F(k-1,n-k)-ganawileba. rac Seexeba o
2
-sa da
2
A
o -s,
maTTvis igeba Sefasebebi. am Sefasebebis asagebad, viyenebT (11.32),
(11.33) tolobebs balansirebul da (11.32), (11.34) tolobebs arabalan-
sirebul SemTxvevaSi. marTlac, Tu SevxedavT formulaTa am wyvilebs,
rogorc orucnobian gantolebaTa sistemebs o
2
-isa da
2
A
o is mimarT,
advilad davrwmundebiT, rom o
2
= E(WMS) da
2
A
o = E(BMS-WMS)/q
balansirebul SemTxvevaSi da o
2
= E(WMS) da
2
A
o = E(BMS-WMS)/n
0
arabalansirebul SemTxvevaSi. amitom orive SemTxvevaSi, o
2
-is Sefaseb-
ad aviRebT
2 ~
o = WMS -s da
2
A
o -is Sefasebebad ki
2 ~
A
o = max((BMS-
WMS)/q , 0) da
2 ~
A
o =max((BMS-WMS)/n
0
, 0) sidideebs, Sesabamisad.
sabolood, statistikuri kriteriumi iseve yalibdeba, rogorc
deterministuli efeqtebis dros:
Tu dasaxelebuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis F statistikis
dakvirvebuli f = bms / wms mniSvnelobisaTvis
f > F
k 1,n k, 1- o
,
maSin H
0
ara gvaqvs. Sesabamisi p-mniSvneloba tolia
p = P{ F
k 1,n k
> f }. (11.36)
kriteriumis gamoyenebis sailustraciod gavarCioT Semdegi
magaliTi 11.6. cxrilSi mocemulia plazma estradiolis (plasma
estradiol) menopauzis Semdgomi logariTmebis mniSvnelobebi xuTi qalis
(gadiis) sisxlSi. eqsperimenti tardeboda Semdegnairad: yoveli sisx-
lis sinji daiyo or tol nawilad da aTive sinji gaigzavna analizis-
aTvis laboratoriaSi, ise, rom iq ar scodnodaT, Tu visi sisxlis an-
alizs akeTebdnen. miiRes Semdegi Sedegebi:
individi sinji 1 sinji 2 sxvaobis moduli saSualoebi
1 25.5 30.4 4.9 27.95
143
2 11.1 15.0 3.9 13.05
3 8.0 8.1 0.1 8.05
4 20.7 16.9 3.8 18.80
5 5.8 8.4 2.6 7.10
SeiZleba Tu ara individualuri da individebs Soris variaciebis sid-
ideebis Sefaseba am monacemebiT?
amoxsna. gamoTvlebis Sedegad miviRebT, bss = 2.65775, wss = 0.15,
anu bms = 2.65775/(9-5) = 0.66444, wms = 0.15/5 = 0.03 da f = 0.66444/0.03
= 22.15. F(4,5)-ganawilebis cxrilebidan vpoulobT, rom P{F
4,5
> 22.15}
< 0.0022, saidanac davaskvniT, rom dakvirvebadi sididis individualu-
ri saSualo mniSvnelobebs Soris gansxvaveba statistikurad mniSvnel-
ovania. Tu gavixsenebT
2 ~
A
o -is
2 ~
A
o = max((BMS-WMS)/q , 0) Sefasebas, miv-
iRebT, rom
2 ~
A
o = (0.6644-0.03)/2=0.317 da maS, individebs Soris variaci-
ebis sidide daaxloebiT 10-jer metia individualuri (individSi) var-
iaciis wms = 0.03 sidideze.
amocanebi
1. mkvlevars surs gamoscados maRali arteriuli wnevis dawev-
is sami gansxvavebuli meTodi. SemTxveviT SeirCa pacientTa sami jgufi.
I jgufs aZlevdnen garkveul preparats, II jgufs utardeboda specia-
luri varjiSebi, xolo III jgufi icavda specialur dietas. oTxi kvi-
ris Semdeg TiToeul pacients gauzomes arteriuli wneva (monacemebi
moyvanilia qvemoT). 0.05 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT SeamowmeT hipoTe-
za imis Sesaxeb, rom populaciaTa saSualoebs Soris ar arsebobs gan-
sxvaveba.
preparati varjiSi dieta
10 6 5
12 8 9
9 3 12
15 0 8
13 2 4
2. SemTxveviT SerCeul pacientTa sam jgufs utardeboda mkurna-
loba stresis donis dawevis sami gansxvavebuli meTodiT. specialuri
mowyobilobiT gazomil iqna (procentebSi gamosaxuli) TiToeuli pac-
ientis daweuli stresis done (monacemebi moyvanilia qvemoT). 0.05 o =
mniSvnelovnebis doniT, SegviZlia Tu ara daaskvnaT, rom procentebis
saSualo am jgufebSi gansxvavebulia?
I meTodi II meTodi III meTodi
3 12 15
10 12 14
144
5 17 18
1 13 14
13 18 20
3 9 22
4 14 16
3. SemTxveviT SerCeuli aTletebi dayves sam jgufad da dauniS-
nes sami saxis dieta erTi Tvis ganmavlobaSi. erTi Tvis gasvlis Semd-
eg TiToeuli aTletis mier dietebis mixedviT daklebuli kilograme-
bi moyvanilia qvemoT. 0.05 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT, SegviZlia Tu
ara daaskvnaT, rom dietebi gansxvavebulia?
dieta A dieta B dieta C
3 10 8
6 12 3
7 11 2
4 14 5
8
6
4. jandacvis saministros ainteresebs vin daTanxmdeba nebayofi-
lobiT Tavis Tavze gamoscados arteriuli wnevis dasawevi axali pre-
parati. regionebis mixedviT miRebuli monacemebis qvemoTmoyvanili
cxrilis mixedviT, 0.01 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT, SegviZlia Tu ara
daaskvnaT, rom TiToeul regionSi eqsperimentSi monawileobis msurve-
lTa raodenoba erTidaigivea?
regioni I II III IV
Tanaxmaa 87 62 56 93
5. qvemoT moyvanilia nawlavis Cxirebis raodenoba sami sxvadas-
xva tbis garkveul farTobze 5 dRiani periodis ganmavlobaSi.
0.05 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT aris Tu ara gansxvaveba Cxirebis rao-
denobis saSualoebSi?
kus tba lisis tba faravnis tba
45 97 33
53 82 35
41 99 31
38 84 28
55 79 26
6. studentebi SemTxveviT gadaanawiles sam jgufSi da TiToeul
jgufs SesTavazes swavlebis gansxvavebuli meTodi. kursis damTavrebis
Semdeg Catarebuli gamocdis Sedegebi moyvanilia qvemoT. 0.05 o = mni-
Svnelovnebis doniT aris Tu ara mniSvnelovani gansxvaveba gamocdis
Sedegebis saSualoebSi jgufebis mixedviT?
I jgufi II jgufi III jgufi
145
87 82 97
92 78 90
61 41 83
83 65 92
47 63 91
7. zoologiuri maRaziis mepatrones ainteresebs dakavSirebulia
Tu ara arCeuli cxovelis saxeoba adamianis sqesTan. qvemoTmoyvanili
monacemebis mixedviT, 0.1 o = mniSvnelovnebis doniT, SeamowmeT Sesaba-
misi hipoTeza.
cxovelis saxeoba
----------------------------------------------------
ZaRli kata Citi
mdedrobiTi 23 4 8
mamrobiTi 32 27 16
l e q c i a 11.
Tavi 12. oramokrafiani amocanebi binomuri proporci-
ebisaTvis. kategoruli monacemebi.
12.1. Sesavali.
wina leqciebSi Cven ganvixileT hipoTezaTa Semowmebis amocanebi
erTi, ori da meti SerCevisaTvis, sadac ZiriTadad daSvebuli iyo,
rom monacemebis Sesabamisi populaciebi normaluria, es ki, rogorc
viciT, uwyveti tipis SemTxveviTi sididea. aqamde araferi gviTqvams
diskretul modelebSi hipoTezaTa Semowmebis sakiTxis Sesaxeb erTze
met amokrefian amocanebSi. Cven saqme gveqneba ara mxolod ricxviT,
aramed e.w. kategorul monacemebTanac, romlebic Tavisi bunebiT swor-
edac rom diskretulebi arian da ara uwyveti. rogorc ukve vnaxeT,
umniSvnelovaness diskretuli tipis SemTxveviT sidideebs Soris, war-
moadgens binomuri SemTxveviTi sidide. amitomac am leqciaSi Cven Sevi-
swavliT ori da meti binomuri populaciis Sedarebis sakiTxs. aseTi
amocanebis Seswavlis aucilebloba Cven SegviZlia davinaxoT uamrav
magaliTze. moviyvanoT erT-erTi maTgani.
magaliTi 12.1. samedicino wreebSi sakmaod gavrcelebulia azri
imis Sesaxeb, rom mkerdis kibo qalebSi damokidebulia maTi pirveli
mSobiarobis asakze. kerZod, rac ufro gvian xdeba pirveli mSobiaro-
ba, miT ufro metia qalebSi mkerdis kibos gaCenis Sansi. amis dasadge-
nad Catarda saerTaSoriso gamokvleva, romelSic aSS-sTan erTad mona-
wileobda saberZneTi, iugoslavia, brazilia taivani da iaponia. qalebs
146
ekiTxebodnen maTi pirveli mSobiarobis asaks. aRmoCnda, rom 683 qals
3220-dan, romelsac hqonda mkerdis kibo, pirveli mSobiaroba hqondaT
30-ze meti wlis asakSi, xolo im qalebs Soris, romlebsac es daavad-
eba ar hqoniaT, 1498 qalis pirveli mSobiarobis asaki iyo 30 welze
meti 10245 SemTxvevidan. aris Tu ara mniSvnelovani gansxvaveba am mon-
acemebs Soris?
rogorc magaliTidan vxedavT, dakvirvebadi sidideebi warmoad-
genen garkveuli xdomilobebis moxdenaTa raodenobebs da Sesabamisad,
isini ver iqnebian uwyveti SemTxveviTi sidideebis gaTamaSebis Sedegi.
gasagebia, rom maT ukan diskretuli SemTxveviTi sidideebi dgas. rog-
oria es SemTxveviTi sidideebi, rogori ganawileba SeiZleba maT hqon-
des da rogor Camoyalibdeba da Semowmdeba hipoTezebi? ai sakiTxebis
is (SeiZleba arasruli) nusxa, romelzedac am leqci-aSi gveqneba lap-
araki.
12.2. ori binomuri proporciis Sedareba, normaluri
aproqsimacia.
ganvagrZoT 12.1 magaliTis ganxilva. albaTobebi imisa, rom SemT-
xveviT amorCeuli qalis asaki pirveli mSobiarobisas metia an toli
30 welze daavadebulTa da janmrTelTa Soris Sesabamisad, aRvniSnoT
p
1
-iTa da p
2
-iT. gasagebia, rom maSin CvenTvis sainteresoa pasuxi Seki-
Txvaze, aris Tu ara p
1
da p
2
erTmaneTis toli? cxadia, rom is raod-
enobebi, romlebic aRwerilia 12.1 magaliT (683 da 1498), SeiZleba
sul sxva yofiliyo, Tu Cven gamovkiTxavdiT sxva 3220 da 10245
qals. amitom Cven vuSvebT, rom arsebobs SemTxveviTi sidideebi X
1
da
X
2
, romelTa konkretuli gaTamaSebis Sedegadac miviReT swored es
ricxvebi, anu x
1
= 683 da x
2
= 1498. rogoraa ganawilebuli X
1
da X
2
SemTxveviTi sidideebi? Tu Cven davuSvebT, rom yoveli qalis pirveli
mSobiarobis asakis moxvedra ama Tu im intervalSi danarCenebisagan
damoukidebelia (rac bunebrivia), maSin cxadia, rom X
1
da X
2
sididee-
bi warmoadgens binomurad ganawilebul SemTxveviT sidideebs cdaTa
sxvadasxva ricxviT, 3220 da 10245, sazogadod, ki n
1
-iTa da n
2
-iT. ga-
rda amisa, bunebrivia, vifiqroT, rom X
1
da X
2
SemTxveviTi sidideebi
damoukidebelia. maSin nulovani da alternatiuli hipoTeza ase yalib-
deba: H
0
: p
1
= p
2
da H
1
: p
1
= p
2
. rogorc cnobilia, binomuri ganawile-
bis p parametris saukeTeso wertilovan Sefasebas warmoadgens fardo-
biTi sixSire,
n
p
~
= X / n: Cvens SemTxvevaSi,
1
1
~
n
p = X
1
/ n
1
,
2
2
~
n
p = X
2
/ n
2
.
amitom Cveni kriteriumic swored am sidideebze unda avagoT, radgan
maTi siaxlove p
1
-isa da p
2
-is siaxlovis maCvenebelia. ganvixiloT
sxvaoba
1
1
~
n
p -
2
2
~
n
p = X
1
/ n
1
- X
2
/ n
2
, rogorc SemTxveviTi sidide da Seve-
147
cadoT davaxasiaToT is. sazogadod,
1
1
~
n
p -
2
2
~
n
p SemTxveviTi sididis ga-
nawilebis gamoTvla sakmaod Sromatevadi da rTulia, magram roca n
1
da n
2
imdenad didia, rom n
1
p
1
(1- p
1
) > 5 da n
2
p
2
(1- p
2
) > 5, maSin, ro-
gorc cnobilia, SesaZlebelia
1
1
~
n
p da
2
2
~
n
p SemTxveviTi sidideebis no-
rmaluri aproqsimaciebi, anu SegviZlia CavTvaloT, rom
1
1
~
n
p ~N(p
1
;
p
1
(1- p
1
)/n
1
) da
2
2
~
n
p ~ N(p
2
; p
2
(1-p
2
)/n
2
). maSin
1
1
~
n
p -
2
2
~
n
p sxvaoba warmoad-
gens damoukidebeli normaluri SemTxveviTi sidideebis sxvaobas, rome-
lic isev normaluradaa ganawilebuli da H
0
: p
1
= p
2
hipoTezis samar-
Tlianobis SemTxvevaSi adgili aqvs Semdeg Tanafardobas:
1
1
~
n
p -
2
2
~
n
p ~ N(0; p(1- p)(1/n
1
+ 1/n
2
)), (12.1)
sadac p p
1
= p
2
. sabolood, rogorc es ukve araerTxel gavakeTeT, Tu
sxvaobas (12.1)-is marcxena mxareSi davanormirebT standartuli gadax-
riT, miviRebT, rom
(
1
1
~
n
p -
2
2
~
n
p ) / ) / 1 / 1 ( ) 1 (
2 1
n n p p + ~ N(0;1). (12.2)
samwuxarod, miRebul statistikas jer kidev ver gamoviyenebT
Cveni miznebisaTvis, radgan is Seicavs ucnob p parametrs. hipoTezis
mixedviT, orive SerCeva amokrefilia erTidaimave populaciidan da ami-
tom SesaZlebelia maTi gaerTianebiT miRebuli SerCevis safuZvelze
SevafasoT p parametri Semdegi sididiT
2 1
2 1
,
2 1
~
n n
X X
p
n n
+
+
= . (12.3)
CavsvaT es sidide (12.2) gamosaxulebaSi p parametris magivrad
da ganvixiloT Semdegi statistika:
2 1
,n n
T (
1
1
~
n
p -
2
2
~
n
p ) / ) / 1 / 1 ( )
~
1 (
~
2 1 , ,
2 1 2 1
n n p p
n n n n
+ . (12.4)
mtkicdeba, rom
2 1
,n n
T ~ N(0;1) da masasadame, am statistikis gam-
oyeneba SeiZleba statistikuri kriteriumis asagebad, romelic sabol-
ood ase yalibdeba:
Tu dasaxelebuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis
2 1
,n n
T statist-
ikis dakvirvebuli
2 1
,n n
t mniSvneloba akmayofilebs pirobas
z
o/2
s
2 1
,n n
t s z
1-o/2
, (12.5)
0
: p
1
= p
2
hipoTezis uaryofis safuZv-
eli ara gvaqvs, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, mas uarvyofT. Sesabamisi p-mni-
Svneloba gamoiTvleba formuliT
p = 2(1-u(
2 1
,n n
t )), Tu
2 1
,n n
t > 0 da p = 2u(
2 1
,n n
t ), Tu
2 1
,n n
t < 0. (12.6)
davubrundeT 12.1 magaliT da pirvel rigSi SevamowmoT n
1
p
1
(1-
p
1
) > 5 da n
2
p
2
(1- p
2
) > 5 pirobebis samarTlianoba
2 1
,
~
n n
p -ebis dakvirveb-
uli ricxviTi mniSvnelobebisaTvis. gvaqvs:
148
2 1
,
~
n n
p = (x
1
+ x
2
)/ (n
1
+ n
2
) = (683 + 1498)/(3220 + 10245) = 2181/13465 = 0.162.
amitom cxadia, rom
n
2
2 1
,
~
n n
p (1-
2 1
,
~
n n
p ) > n
1
2 1
,
~
n n
p (1-
2 1
,
~
n n
p ) = 3220 0.1620.838 = 437.1 > 5.
gamovTvaloT axla
2 1
,n n
t = (683/3220-1498/10245)/( 0.1620.838(1/3220+1/10245))
1/2
= 8.9.
vinaidan
2 1
,n n
t = 8.9 > 0, amitom kriteriumis Sesabamisi p-mniSvne-
loba tolia p = 2(1-u(
2 1
,n n
t )) = 2(1-u(8.9)) < 0.001 da maSasadame, H
0
: p
1
= p
2
hipoTezas uarvyofT o = 0.001 mniSvnelovnebis donisTvisac ki. e.
i. pirveli mSobiaroba 30-ze meti wlis asakSi hqondaT mkerdis kiboTi
daavadebuli qalebis ufro maRal procents, (683 / 3220) 100% =
21.2%, vidre am mxriv janmrTel qalebs, (1498/10245)100% = 14.6%.
12.3 ori binomuri proporciis Sedareba, SeuRlebis 22
cxrili.
wina punqtSi ganxiluli magaliTi SegviZlia sxvanairadac amov-
xsnaT. cxadia, pasuxi igive darCeba, magram am gzas aqvs ganzogadebis
meti perspeqtiva. is gamodgeba ara mxolod ori binomuri proporciis,
aramed ramdenime aseTi sididis Sesadarebladac. am tipis amocanebs mo-
kled proporciaTa erTgvarovnebis amocanebs eZaxian. garda amisa, is
meTodi, romlis ganxilvasac am punqtSi vapirebT, gamodgeba ori (an
meti) niSnis damoukideblobis Sesamowmebladac, razec momdevno punq-
tSi iqneba saubari. am meTods SeuRlebis 22 (sazogadod, rc) cxri-
lis meTodi hqvia. SeuRlebis 22 cxrili warmoadgens or striqonian
da or svetian cxrils, romlis ujredebSic Cawerilia ori niSnis mi-
xedviT dayofili monacemebi (dakvirvebis Sedegebi). 12.1 magaliTisaT-
vis is ase gamoiyureba:
qalisAasaki pirveli
mSobiarobisas
cxrili 12.1
kategoria > 30 < 30 sul
aqvs kibo 683 2537 3220
ara aqvs kibo 1498 8747 10245
sul 2181 11284 13465
rogorc vxedavT, ori striqonisa da ori svetis garda kidev
aris bolo striqoni da bolo sveti, romlsac marginaluri striqoni
da sveti ewodeba da romelSic warmodgenilia Sesabamisad, cxrilis
striqonebsa da svetebSi mdgomi ricxvebis jamebi. ra Tqma unda, Cven
149
SegviZlia aseTive cxrilis ageba zogad SemTxvevaSic, anu Semdegi sa-
xis cxrilis ageba,
qalisAasaki pirveli
mSobiarobisas
cxrili 12.2
aqvs kibo x
1
n
1
-x
1
n
1
ara aqvs
kibo
x
2
n
2
-x
2
n
2
sul x
1
+x
2
n
1
+ n
2
( x
1
+x
2
) n
1
+ n
2
saidanac ufro naTlad Cans binomuri X
1
da X
2
SemTxveviTi sidideebis
n
1
da n
2
parametrebi da am sidideebis mier eqsperimentis Sedegad mi-
Rebuli x
1
da x
2
mniSvnelobebi. amitomac am cxrils dakvirvebuli
SeuRlebis cxrilsac uwodeben. mis garda ageben e.w. mosalodnel Seu-
Rlebis cxrilsac, romelSic dakvirvebuli x
1
da x
2
mniSvnelobebis na-
cvlad Setanilia X
1
da X
2
SemTxveviTi sidideebis mosalodneli mniS-
vnelobebis Sefasebebi: n
1
2 1
,
~
n n
p = n
1
(x
1
+x
2
)/(n
1
+n
2
) da n
2
2 1
,
~
n n
p =
n
2
(x
1
+x
2
)/(n
1
+n
2
). mosalodnel SeuRlebis cxrils 12.1 magaliTisaTvis
aqvs Semdegi saxe:
qalisAasaki pirveli
mSobiarobisas
cxrili 12.3
aqvs kibo 521.6 2698.4 3220
ara aqvs kibo 1659.4 8585.6 10245
sul 2181 11284 13465
Sesabamisad, zogad SemTxvevaSi mosalodnel SeuRlebis cxrils
eqneba Semdegi saxe:
qalisAasaki pirveli
mSobiarobisas
cxrili 12.4
aqvs kibo n
1
2 1
,
~
n n
p n
1
(1-
2 1
,
~
n n
p )
n
1
ara aqvs kibo n
2
2 1
,
~
n n
p n
2
(1-
2 1
,
~
n n
p )
n
2
sul x
1
+x
2
n
1
+ n
2
( x
1
+x
2
) n
1
+ n
2
150
SevniSnoT, rom am cxrilebSi marginaluri striqonebi da svete-
bi ar icvleba: cxrilis striqonebsa da svetebSi mdgomi ricxvebis
jamebi igivea, rac dakvirvebuli SeuRlebis cxrilebSi iyo. es kargad
Cans bolo cxrilidan:
n
1
2 1
,
~
n n
p + n
1
(1-
2 1
,
~
n n
p ) = n
1
, n
2
2 1
,
~
n n
p + n
2
(1-
2 1
,
~
n n
p ) = n
2
,
n
1
2 1
,
~
n n
p + n
2
2 1
,
~
n n
p = (n
1
+n
2
)
2 1
,
~
n n
p = (n
1
+n
2
) (x
1
+x
2
)/(n
1
+n
2
) = x
1
+x
2,
n
1
(1-
2 1
,
~
n n
p )+n
2
(1-
2 1
,
~
n n
p )=(n
1
+n
2
)(1-
2 1
,
~
n n
p )=
=(n
1
+n
2
)(n
1
+n
2
(x
1
+x
2
))/(n
1
+n
2
) = n
1
+n
2
( x
1
+x
2
).
SeuRlebis 22 cxrilis meTodis arsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom
erTmaneTs SevadaroT 12.1 da 12.3 cxrilebis ujredebSi moTavsebuli
ricxvebi (sazogadod, 12.2 da 12.4 cxrilebis ujredebSi moTavsebuli
sidideebi): Tu erT ujredSi mainc miviReT didi sxvaoba, maSin hip-
oTeza p
1
da p
2
proporciebis tolobis Sesaxeb unda uarvyoT, xolo
winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi unda vaRiaroT, rom monacemebi ar gvaZlevs am
hipoTezis uaryofis safuZvels. magram cxadia, aqve ismis kiTxva: ras
niSnavs didi sxvaoba? mtkicdeba, rom Tu Cven yovel ujredSi ganvi-
xilavT (O-E)
2
/E tipis sidides, sadac O Seesabameba dakvirvebuli (Obse-
rved) SeuRlebis cxrilis ujredSi, xolo E ki mosalodneli (Expected)
SeuRlebis cxrilis ujredSi mdgom sidideebs da miRebul oTxive si-
dides SevkrebT, maSin jams, rogorc SemTxveviT sidides aqvs _
2
(1)-gana-
wileba da maSin, pasuxi SekiTxvaze, ras niSnavs didi sxvaoba naTe-
lia: miRebuli jamis sidide dasaxelebuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisa-
Tvis unda Sedardes _
2
(1)-ganawilebis zeda
2
1 , 1 o
_

kvantilis ricxviT
mniSvnelobas; Tu jamis mniSvneloba aRmoCndeba
2
1 , 1 o
_

-ze didi, maSin
hipoTezas uarvyofT, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, amis safuZveli ara
gvaqvs.
imisaTvis, rom mivceT statistikas formulis saxe, SemoviRoT
aRniSvnebi, romlebic momavalSic dagvWirdeba: aRvniSnoT O
ij
-Ti dakvi-
rvebuli SeuRlebis cxrilis (i,j) ujredSi, xolo E
ij
-Ti ki mosalodn-
eli SeuRlebis cxrilis (i,j) ujredSi mdgomi sidideebi, i, j = 1,2. maS-
in kriteriumis statistikas aqvs Semdegi saxe:
T = (O
11
-E
11
)
2
/E
11
+ (O
12
-E
12
)
2
/E
12
+ (O
21
-E
21
)
2
/E
21
+ (O
22
-E
22
)
2
/E
22
. (12.7)
radgan am statistikis ganawilebis dadgenisas xdeba diskretu-
li SemTxveviTi sidideebis aproqsimacia uwyvetiT, iatisma (Yates) Sem-
oiRo misi Sesworeba, romelic ufro zustad uaxlovdeba
2
(1)-ganawi-
lebas, kerZod:
T
Ya
= (|O
11
-E
11
| -1/2)
2
/E
11
+ (|O
12
-E
12
| -1/2)
2
/E
12
+
+(|O
21
-E
21
| -1/2)
2
/E
21
+ (|O
22
-E
22
| -1/2)
2
/E
22
. (12.8)
151
am statistikis terminebSi kriteriumi ase yalibdeba:
Ya
statistik-
is dakvirvebuli t
Ya
t
Ya
>
2
1 , 1 o
_

, (12.9)
0
: p
1
= p
2
hipoTezas uarvyofT, winaa-
Rmdeg SemTxvevaSi, amis safuZveli ara gvaqvs.
davubrundeT magaliTs da gamovTvaloT t
Ya
-is mniSvneloba:
t
Ya
= (|683-521.6| -1/2)
2
/521.6 + (|2537-2698.4| -1/2)
2
/2698.4 +
+(|1498-1659.4| -1/2)
2
/1659.4 + (|8747-8585.6| -1/2)
2
/8585.6 = 77.89.
radgan
2
999 . 0 , 1
_ = 10.83 < 77.89 = t
Ya
, amitom H
0
: p
1
= p
2
hipoTezas uarvy-
ofT, o = 0.001 mniSvnelovnebis doniT da maSasadame, mkerdis kibo qale-
bSi mniSvnelovnadaa dakavSirebuli qalis pirveli mSobiarobis asakTan.
12.4. SeuRlebis 22 cxrili. niSanTa damoukidebloba.
rogorc aRniSnuli iyo, SeuRlebis 22 cxrili SeiZleba gamo-
viyenoT ori niSnis damoukideblobis Sesadareblad. aseT amocanebSi
laparakia ara or (an met) populaciaze, aramed, erTidaimave populac-
iis ori sxvadasxva niSnis Sedarebaze. kerZod, Cven gvainteresebs axde-
nen Tu ara gavlenas isini erTmaneTze da maSasadame, arian Tu ara es
niSnebi albaTuri azriT damoukideblebi. sailustraciod moviyvanoT
beitsonis magaliTi:
magaliTi 12.2. cxrilSi mocemulia tkbili muxudos yvavilis
ganawileba ori niSnis, yvavilis Seferilobisa da misi mtvrianas for-
mis mixedviT. Cveni amocanaa SevamowmoT am ori niSnis damoukideblob-
is hipoTeza cxrilSi moyvanili monacemebis mixedviT:
yvavilisASeferiloba cxrili 12.5
mtvrianas forma iisferi wiTeli sul
mogrZo 296 27 323
mrgvali 19 85 104
sul 315 112 427
sanam magaliTis amoxsnaze gadavidodeT, SevniSnoT, rom am cxri-
lSi marginaluri striqoni da sveti fiqsirebulia 12.1 cxrilisagan
gansxvavebiT, sadac fiqsirebuli mxolod marginaluri sveti iyo. ami-
tom aq SemTxveviTi faqtiurad, cxrilis mxolod erT-erTi ujredia
(magaliTad, (1,1) ujredi), xolo yvela danarCen ujredSi Casaweri
ricxvis mniSvneloba ganimarteba marginaluri mniSvnelobebiTa da am
152
ujredSi Cawerili sididis saSualebiT. miuxedavad am mniSvnelovani
gansxvavebebisa, imave wesiT agebul T
Ya
SemTxveviT sidides damoukideb-
lobis hipoTezis samarTlianobis SemTxvevaSi, aqvs isev
2
(1)-ganawile-
ba da maSasadame, statistikuri kriteriumic igive rCeba. aRsaniSnavia,
rom gamoTvlebis TvalsazrisiT gacilebiT martivia am statistikis
ricxviTi mniSvnelobis gamoTvla Semdegi formulis saSualebiT:
T
Ya
= n(|O
11
O
22
- O
12
O
21
| -n/2)
2
/((O
11
+O
12
)(O
11
+O
21
)(O
22
+O
12
)(O
22
+O
21
))
(sadac n = O
11
+ O
12
+ O
21
+ O
22
). (12.10)
rogorc vxedavT, (12.10) formulaSi saerTod gaqra e.w. mosal-
odneli mniSvnelobebi, rac cxadia, gacilebiT amartivebs gamoTvlebs.
garda amisa, SevniSnoT, rom mniSvnelSi zis yvela marginaluri mniSvn-
elobebis namravli. gadavideT magaliTis amoxsnaze.
amoxsna. gamovTvaloT T
Ya
Ya
mniSvne-
loba:
t
Ya
= 427(|29685-2719| - 427/2)
2
/315112323104 = 215.114.
vinaidan
2
999 . 0 , 1
_ =10.83<215.114=t
Ya
, amitom o = 0.001 mniSvnelov-
nebis doniT H
0
hipoTezas uarvyofT da maSasadame, yvavilis Seferilo-
ba da misi mtvrianas forma ar arian damoukidebeli niSnebi.
SevniSnoT, rom am magaliTSi Cven gamoviyeneT warmatebis p al-
baTobis saerTo
2 1
,
~
n n
p Sefaseba, rac SeiZleba sadao iyos. kerZod,
cnobilia, rom iisferi da mtvrianas mogrZo forma warmoadgenen domi-
nantur niSnebs, anu mendelis kanonis Tanaxmad, maTi Sexvedris albaT-
obebia 3/4, xolo misi wiTeli feri da mtvrianas mrgvali forma rec-
esiuli niSnebia da maTi Sexvedris albaTobebia 1/4. Tu es ori niSani
memkvidreobiT erTmaneTisagan damoukideblad gadaecema, maSin niSanTa
wyvilebis albaTobebi proporciuli unda iyos ricxvebis 9:3:3:1. maSa-
sadame, damoukideblobis SemTxvevaSi 12.5 cxrili (dakvirvebuli SeuR-
lebis cxrili) unda Sedardes mosalodneli SeuRlebis Semdeg
cxrils:
yvavilisASeferiloba cxrili 12.6
mtvrianas forma iisferi wiTeli
mogrZo 4279/16 ~ 240.2 4273/16 ~ 80.05
mrgvali 4273/16 ~ 80.05 4271/16 ~ 26.7
Tu SevadarebT 12.5 da 12.6 cxrilebs igive (12.8) formuliT
gamoTvlili statistikaze dayrdnobiT, miviRebT
t
Ya
= (|296-240.2| -1/2)
2
/240.2 + (|27-80.05| -1/2)
2
/80.05 +
+(|19-80.05| -1/2)
2
/80.05 + (|85-26.7| -1/2)
2
/26.7 = 218.22.
153
kvlav, radgan
2
999 . 0 , 1
_ = 10.83 < 218.22 = t
Ya
, amitom H
0
hipoTezas
uarvyofT, o = 0.001 mniSvnelovnebis doniT da vakeTebT igive daskvnas,
rom yvavilis Seferiloba da misi mtvrianas forma ar arian damoukid-
ebeli niSnebi.
amocanebi
1. SeamowmeT 11.3 punqtSi gverdze warmodgenili cxrilis samar-
Tlianoba.
2. cxrilSi mocemulia proteinis miRebis sidideebi qalebSi,
romlebic icaven sami tipis dietas, menopauzis Semdgom periodSi.
dietis tipi saSualo stand. gadaxra moculoba
STD 75 9 10
LAC 57 13 10
VEG 47 17 6
2.1. SeadareT jgufebis saSualoebi kritikuli mniSvnelobebiT;
2.2. gaakeTeT igive p-mniSvnelobaze dayrdnobiT;
2.3. SeadareT saSualoebi jufTa yoveli wyvilisaTvis t-kriteriumiT;
2.4. davuSvaT, cnobilia, rom sazogadod, qalebis 70% icavs LAC ti-
pis, xolo 30% ki VEG tipis dietas. gansazRvreT aris, Tu ara mniS-
vnelovani gansxvaveba Sesabamis wrfiv kontrastsa da 0-s Soris;
2.5. mravlobiTi Sedarebis meTodiT gansazRvreT romeli populaciebis
saSualoebia gansxvavebuli.
3. Catarda gamokvleva imis dasdgenad, Tu romeli meTodiT jo-
bia sisxlis wnevis gansazRvra, standartuliT, Tu axliT. gazomvebi
aRiricxa 4 sxvadasxva adgilze da miiRes Semdegi Sedegebi:
gazomvis axali meTodi standartuli meTodi
adgi-
li
saSualo gadaxra mocul saSualo gadaxra mocul
A 142.5 21.0 98 142.0 18.1 98
B 134.1 22.5 84 133.6 23.2 84
C 147.9 20.3 98 133.9 18.3 98
D 135.4 16.7 62 128.5 19.0 62
3.1. romeli midgoma ufro miesadageba am amocanas, determinituli, Tu
SemTxveviTi efeqtebis?
3.2. SeamowmeT aris Tu ara mniSvnelovani gansxvaveba oTxivegan.
4. SeadareT erTmaneTs inkubatorSi sxvadasxva temperaturis
dros gamoCekili wiwilebis masebi.
I 80 82 81 82 73 85 81 83 80 82
II 91 84 83 90 83 87 89 85 82 84
III 81 83 84 87 76 84 88 83 91 84
154
1.1. gamoTvaleT sami saSualo;
1.2. gansxvavdeba Tu ara mniSnelovnad ori saSualo mainc erTmaneTisa-
gan?
5. cxrilSi moyvanilia oTx sxvadasxva mdinareSi daWerili er-
Ti da igive jiSis Tevzis sigrZe.
1 265 315 360 290 420 310 290 340 280 270 255 290 300
325 280
2 305 340 310 320 270 300
3 300 380 380 350 335 335 370 280 320 405 300 380
4 280 260 295 280 270 305 350
2.1. rogor unda SeamowmoT hipoTeza, rom oTxive mdinareSi Tevzis ga-
zrdisaTvis aris erTi da igive piroba;
2.2. SeamowmeT es hipoTeza 0.05 mniSvnelovnobis doniT.
5. cxrilSi moyvanilia tyis 4 adgilas SemTxveviT aRebul mci-
re ubnebze xavsiT dafaruli are (kv.sm.). pirveli ori adgili qaria-
nia, mesame da meoTxe qarisgan daculia.
adgili are
1 7 2 4
2 6 4 6
3 8 4 5
4 7 4 2 5
3.1. CamoayalibeT ori statistikuri hipoTeza;
3.2. airCieT kriteriumis statistika;
3.3. SearCieT mniSvnelovnobis done;
3.4. miiReT gadawyvetileba hipoTezis Sesaxeb.
6. CamoTvaleT daSvebebi, romlebic safuZvlad udevs erTfaqto-
riani dispersiuli analizis gamoyenebas.
7. ra pirobebSi eqneba populaciis monacemebis normaluri ganaw-
ilebidan gadaxras minimaluri gavlena pirveli gvaris Secdomaze erT-
faqtoriani dispersiuli analizisaTvis?
8. ganwyobilebaze damokidebuli mexsierebis fenomeni niSnavs,
rom gaxseneba umjobesdeba, roca subieqts masalis gaxsenebisas igive
ganwyobileba aqvs, rac misi Seswavlis dros.
jgufis ganwyobileba
1 2 3 4 5
swavlis dros mxiaruli sevdiani neitraluri mxiaruli sevdiani
ganwyobileba
gaxsenebis dros
Seqmnili mxiaruli sevdiani neitraluri mxiaruli sevdiani
ganwyobileba
155
ganwyobilebaze damokidebuli mexsierebis Teoria winaswarmetyvelebs,
rom jgufebi, romelTac aqvT swavlisa da gaxsenebis kongruentuli
mdgomareoba (e.i. jgufebi 1, 2 da 3) unda ixsenebdnen ufro mets, vid-
re jgufebi, romelTac hqondaT gansxvavebuli ganwyobilebebi swavlisa
da gaxsenebis dros (e.i. jgufebi 4 da 5). gaxsenebuli punqtebis rao-
denoba naCvenebia cxrilSi.
Gganwyob.
jgufi
1 8 12 12 7 10 9 13
2 14 13 6 9 12 10 8
3 9 12 7 7 11 6 10
4 5 9 6 8 4 6 10
5 6 9 8 8 5 4 5
romeli jgufis saSualoebi gansxvavdebian mniSnelovnad erTmaneTisagan
0.05 doneze?
9. eqsperimetSi monawileobda 3 jgufi. sakontrolo jgufs as-
mevdnen forToxlis wvens, placebo sakontrolo jgufs asmevdnen fo-
rToxlis wvens, magram eubnebodnen, rom masSi alkoholi iyo Sereuli,
mesame jgufs asmevdnen forToxlis wvens, masSi gaxsnili 0.8 ml. alk-
oholiT erT kg. wonaze. cdis pirebs misces sxvadasxva sigrZis monakv-
eTebi da sTxoves SeafasebinaT isini. TiToeuli afasebda 75 monakveTis
sigrZes. Ppirveli Sefasebis Semdeg cdis pirebs ebdnebodnen, rom maTi
Sefaseba ara sworia da meore Sefasebas sTxovdnen. cxrilSi moyvani-
lia Secvlili Sefasebebis raodenoba.
jgufi
sakontrolo 18 2 11 3 26
placebo 17 19 26 4 18
alkoholi 31 27 16 24 41
cdis pirebi, romelTac miawodes alkoholuri sasmeli ufro xSirad
cvlian TavianT Sefasebebs, vidre cdis pirebi, romelTac miawodes
wveni, Tu ara?
10. fsiqologebma ikvlies Zilis Taviseburebebi me-2, me-4 da me-
6 klasel bavSvebSi. TiToeul jgufSi iyo 14 bavSvi. Zilis periodi
ganisazRvreboda, rogorc drois raodenoba daZinebidan diliT gaRviZe-
bamde. cxrilSi moyvanilia Zilis periodebi wuTebSi.
Zilis periodi
580 525 562 590 575 603 594 521 536 612 514 544 573 592
497 515 543 478 567 532 517 510 534 556 511 523 572 574
525 506 475 493 537 532 480 501 472 463 521 517 477 515
156
10.1. ipoveT TiToeuli jgufisaTvis saSualo da standartuli gadax-
ra;
10.2. CamoayalibeT statistikuri hipoTezebi;
10.3. ra SegiZliaT daaskvnaT am qulebis safuZvelze dispersiuli ana-
lizidan?
10.4. saWiroa Tu ara mravaljeradi Sedarebis kriteriumebi? pasuxi
daasabuTeT.
11. beWdvis Secdomebis saSualo raodenoba iyo 18.5 im jgufisa-
Tvis, romelic usmenda klasikur musikas, 29.9 im jgufisaTvis, rome-
lic usmenda mZime roks da 17.5 im jgufisaTvis, romelic saerTod ar
usmenda musikas.
11.1. sakmarisi Tu ara es statistikebi dispersiuli analizis Casatar-
eblad?
11.2. SegviZlia Tu ara davinaxoT musikis pirobebi mniSvnelovnad gans-
xvavdeba erTmaneTisagan Tu ara?
12. mdinaris napirze aSenebulia qarxana, saidanac gamoyenebul
wyals uSveben mdinareSi. cxrilSi moyvanilia eTridaigive dros mdi-
naris sxvadasxva adgilas aRebuli sinjis temperatura.
adgili temperatura saSualo
5km. zeviT 7 7 15 11 9 7.8
qarxanasTan 19 25 22 19 23 21.6
5km. qveviT 14 18 18 19 19 17.6
10km. qveviT 12 17 12 18 18 15.4
25km. qveviT 11 7 10 11 15 10.8
12.1. CamoayalibeT hipoTezebi;
12.2. dispersiuli analizis gamoyenebiT SeamowmeT Tqveni hipoTeza.
l e q c i a 12.
12.5. kategoruli monacemebis efeqtebis sazomebi.
wina punqtebSi Cven SeviswavleT hipoTezaTa Semowmebis amocane-
bi SeuRlebis cxrilebis saSualebiT, sadac yvelgan gamoiyeneboda
2
-
kriteriumi. arsebobs kategoruli monacemebis daxasiaTebis sxva saSua-
lebebic (sazomebi), romlebzec am punqtSi gvinda visaubroT. daviwyoT
imiT, rom CavweroT SeuRlebis 22 cxrili e.w. safrTxe avadmyofo-
bis urTierTmimarTebis terminebSi, romelic xSirad Cndeba prospeqtu-
157
li, anu mosalodneli avadmyofobebis analizis dros. SeuRlebis 22
cxrils aqvs Semdegi saxe:
avadmyofoba cxrili 12.7
safrTxe ki ara
ki a b a + b = n
1
ara c d c + d = n
2
a + c = m
1
b + d = m
2
sailustraciod moviyvanoT Semdegi
magaliTi 12.3. samedicino wreebSi aris eWvi imaze, rom OC (Oral
Contraceptive) kontraceptivis miReba moqmedebs qalebSi gulis daavade-
baze. 3 wlis dakvirvebis Semdeg aRmoCnda, rom 40-44 ww. asakobrivi
intervalis qalebSi OC kontraceptivis 5000 momxmareblidan 13-s
ganuviTarda mikro-infarqti, xolo 10000 aramomxmarebels Soris mik-
ro-infarqti ganuviTarda mxolod 7-s. safuZvliania Tu ara eqimebis
eWvi?
ra Tqma unda am kiTxvaze pasuxis gacema Cven ukve SegviZlia wi-
na punqtebSi Seswavlili masalis gamoyenebiT, magram aq Cven gvinda
yuradReba gavamaxviloT sxva sidideebze, romelic SeiZleba dagvexmar-
os dasmul SekiTxvaze pasuxis gacemaSi. amitom Cven gavagrZelebT zo-
gad mimoxilvas da saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi davubrundebiT magaliTs.
aRvniSnoT kvlav p
1
-Ta da p
2
-iT Sesabamisad avadmyofobis ganviTa-
rebis albaTobebi safrTxis qveS myofTaTvis (magaliTSi OC -s momxma-
reblTaTvis) da maTTvis, visac safrTxe ar emuqreba (magaliTSi OC -s
aramomxmareblTaTvis).
p
1
da p
2
-is sxvaobas p
1
- p
2
riskebis sxvaobas uwodeben, xolo
maT Sefardebas R
R
p
1
/ p
2
fardobiT risks.
rogorc cnobilia, p
1
da p
2
-is wertilovani Sefasebebia
1
1
~
n
p da
2
2
~
n
p da Sesabamisad, p
1
- p
2
riskebis sxvaobis karg wertilovan Sefase-
bas warmoadgens
1
1
~
n
p -
2
2
~
n
p SemTxveviTi sidide, romlis ganawilebac ap-
roqsimirdeba normaluri ganawilebiT, parametrebiT
p
1
- p
2
da p
1
(1- p
1
)/n
1
+ p
2
(1- p
2
)/n
2
,
roca n
1
da n
2
iseTia, rom n
1
p
1
(1- p
1
) > 5 da n
2
p
2
(1- p
2
) > 5, anu
1
1
~
n
p -
2
2
~
n
p ~ N(p
1
- p
2 ;
p
1
(1- p
1
)/n
1
+ p
2
(1- p
2
)/n
2
). (12.11)
amitom cxadia, Cven SegviZlia dispersiis gamosaxulebaSi ucno-
bi p
1
da p
2
-is adgilas CavsvaT isev Sesabamisi Sefasebebi. gasagebia, rom
s s

2 1
2 2 1 1
2 1
2
2 2
1
1 1
2 / 1 2 1
~ ~
)
~
1 (
~
)
~
1 (
~
n n
n n n n
p p
n
p p
n
p p
z p p P
o
158
+ s

2
2 2
1
1 1
2 / 1 2 1
)
~
1 (
~
)
~
1 (
~
2 2 1 1
n
p p
n
p p
z p p
n n n n
o
~ 1 - o,
saidanac davaskvniT, rom 100(1 - o)%-iani ndobis intervals riskebis
sxvaobisaTvis aqvs Semdegi saxe: c
1
s p
1
- p
2
s c
2
, sadac
2
2 2
1
1 1
2 / 1 2 1 1
)
~
1 (
~
)
~
1 (
~
~ ~ 2 2 1 1
2 1
n
p p
n
p p
z p p c
n n n n
n n
=
o
, (12.12)
2
2 2
1
1 1
2 / 1 2 1 2
)
~
1 (
~
)
~
1 (
~
~ ~ 2 2 1 1
2 1
n
p p
n
p p
z p p c
n n n n
n n
+ =
o
. (12.13)
cxadia, rom es Sefasebebi gamodgeba maSin, roca
n
1
1
1
~
n
p (1-
1
1
~
n
p ) > 5 da n
2
2
2
~
n
p (1-
2
2
~
n
p ) > 5.
davubrundeT magaliTs da avagoT 95%-iani ndobis intervali
riskebis sxvaobisaTvis. moxerxebulobisaTvis avagoT SeuRlebis 22
cxrili:
mikro-infarqti cxrili 12.8
ki ara
xmarobs OC-s 13 4987 5000 = n
1
ar xmarobs OC-s 7 9993 10000 = n
2
20 = m
1
14980 = m
2
cxrilidan vaskvniT, rom
1
1
~
n
p = 13/5000 = 0.0026,
2
2
~
n
p = 7/10000 = 0.0007
da
1
1
~
n
p -
2
2
~
n
p = 0.0026 0.0007 = 0.0019. garda amisa, n
1
1
1
~
n
p (1-
1
1
~
n
p ) =
=12.99 > 5 da n
2
2
2
~
n
p (1-
2
2
~
n
p ) = 6.99 > 5 dabolos, (12.12) da (12.13)-dan
vpoulobT ndobis intervalis Semdeg sazRvrebs:
c
1
= 0.0019 1.96(0.00260.9974/5000 + 0.00070.9993/10000)
1/2
~ 0.0004,
c
2
= 0.0019 + 1.96(0.00260.9974/5000 + 0.00070.9993/10000)
1/2
~ 0.0034.
maSasadame, sabolood davaskvniT, rom 95% SemTxvevebSi ucnobi
riskis sxvaobisaTvis gvaqvs 0.0004 s p
1
- p
2
s 0.0034. SeiZleba Tu ara
aqedan saTanado daskvnis gakeTeba magaliTSi dasmul SekiTxvaze? ra
Tqma unda SeiZleba: radgan 95%-iani ndobis [0.0004, 0.0034] intervali
ar Seicavs 0-s, amitom 95% SemTxvevebSi gamoricxulia p
1
-isa da p
2
-is
toloba, anu eqimebis eWvi marTlac safuZvliania.
ra SeiZleba iTqvas R
R
= p
1
/p
2
sidideze? misi wertilovani Sefa-
seba cxadia, tolia
R
R
~
=
1
1
~
n
p /
2
2
~
n
p . intervaluri Sefasebis asagebad,
Cven kvlav mogviwevs normaluri aproqsimaciis SesaZleblobis daSveba.
am SemTxvevaSi, naCvenebia, rom )
~
ln(
R
R asimptoturad normaluria da
159
misi standartuli Secdoma tolia
2 1
/ / cn d an b + da amitom ndobis
100(1 - o)%-ian intervlas R
R
-saTvis aqvs Semdegi saxe:
[ )
~
ln(
R
R - z
1-o /2
2 1
/ / cn d an b + ; )
~
ln(
R
R + z
1-o /2
2 1
/ / cn d an b + ]. (12.14)
ra Tqma unda, ndobis intervals sakuTriv R
R
-saTvis advilad
aRvadgenT (12.14)-dan da mas Semdegi saxe eqneba:
[exp( )
~
ln(
R
R -z
1-o /2
) /( ) /(
2 1
cn d an b + ), exp( )
~
ln(
R
R +
+ z
1-o /2
) /( ) /(
2 1
cn d an b + )]. (12.15)
Cveni magaliTisaTvis, )
~
ln(
R
R = ln(
1
1
~
n
p /
2
2
~
n
p ) = ln(0.0026/0.0007) = 1.312.
amitom (12.15) Tanafardobidan ndobis intervali iqneba
[exp(1.312 1.96(4987/(135000))), exp(1.312 + 1.96(4987/(135000)))] =
=[1.5, 9.3].
garda riskebis fardobisa Semodis agreTve e.w. avadmyofobis Sa-
nsebis fardoba, anu sidide
O
R
(p
1
/(1- p
1
))/(p
2
/(1- p
2
)) = p
1
(1- p
2
)/(p
2
(1- p
1
)). (12.16)
cxadia, rom mis wertilovan Sefasebas aqvs Semdegi saxe:
R
O
~
=
1
1
~
n
p (1-
2
2
~
n
p ) /(
2
2
~
n
p (1-
1
1
~
n
p )) = (ad)/(bc). (12.17)
Cveni magaliTisaTvis,
R
O
~
= (139993)/ (74987) = 3.72. aqedan im daskvnis
gakeTeba SeiZleba, rom OC-s momxmareblebs 3.72-jer ufro didi Sansi
aqvT mikro-infarqtis ganviTarebisa, vidre mis aramomxmareblebs.
ndobis intervalis asagebad Sansebis fardobisaTvis iyeneben
vulfis meTods, romlis mixedviTac, 100(1-o)%-ian ndobis intervals
ln(
R
O
~
)-saTvis aqvs Semdegi saxe saxe:
[ )
~
ln(
R
O - z
1-o /2
d c b a / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 + + + , )
~
ln(
R
O +
+ z
1-o /2
d c b a / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 + + + ], (12.18)
saidanac (12.15)-is msgavsad, aigeba ndobis intervali
R
O
~
-saTvis:
[
R
O
~
exp(-z
1-o/2
d c b a / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 + + + ),
R
O
~
exp(z
1-o/2
d c b a / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 + + + )]. (12.19)
12.6. fiSeris zusti kriteriumi.
wina nawilebSi SemoTavazebuli hipoTezaTa Semowmebisa da ndob-
is intervalebis agebis meTodebi arsebiTad eyrdnoboda normalur apr-
oqsimacias. rogor moviqceT im SemTxvevebSi, roca n
1
1
1
~
n
p (1 -
1
1
~
n
p ) > 5
an n
2

2
2
~
n
p (1 -
2
2
~
n
p ) > 5 piroba ar sruldeba? swored amis garkvevas
eTmoba exeba winamdebare nawili. am situaciis sailustraciod ganvixi-
loT Semdegi
160
magaliTi12.4. erT-erT patara dabaSi Catarda e.w. retrospeqti-
uli gamokvleva, romli mizani iyo imis garkveva moqmedebs Tu ara ad-
amianis gulsisxlZarRvTa sistemis (CVD) daavadebiT gardacvalebaze
e.w. mlaSe dieta. mopovebul iqna cxrilSi warmodgenili monacemebi:
gardacvalebis dietis tipi cxrili 12.9
mizezi mlaSe ara mlaSe
ara CVD 2 23 25 = n
1
CVD 5 30 35 = n
2
7 = m
1
53 = m
2
60 = n
aris Tu ara dietis tipsa da CVD Ti gardacvalebas Soris kavSiri,
Tu isini damoukidebelia?
mocemulobidan gvaqvs, n
1
1
1
~
n
p (1-
1
1
~
n
p )= 25(2/25)(1-2/25) = 46/25 =
=1.84 da n
2

2
2
~
n
p (1 -
2
2
~
n
p ) = 35(5/35)(1-5/35) = 30/7 ~ 4.3 da rogorc
vxedavT, orive es ricxvi naklebia 5-ze. amitom wina punqtebSi gamoye-
nebuli kriteriumebi ar gamogvadgeba. aseT SemTxvevebSi iyeneben fiSe-
ris zust kriteriums, romelic gulisxmobs 22 cxrilSi dakvirvebu-
li mniSvnelobebis miRebis albaTobis zusti mniSvnelobis gamoTvlas,
rac Tavis mxriv, albaTobis TeoriaSi cnobilia hipergeometriuli ga-
nawilebis saxeliT. mokled aRvweroT es ganawileba. davuSvaT, ori
tipis obieqtebidan, romelTa raodenobebia n
1
da n
2
xdeba m
1
cali
obieqtis SemTxveviT amorCeva. aRvniSnoT X-iT SemTxveviTi sidide,
romelic gviCvenebs pirveli tipis obieqtebis raodenobas amorCeul
m
1
obieqts Soris. cxadia, rom Tavidanve unda sruldebodes piroba,
rom m
1
s n n
1
+n
2
, radgan n obieqtze metis amorCeva SeuZlebelia. igi-
ve SeiZleba asec gamovTqvaT, m
2
n m
1
> 0. cxadia, rom X SemTxveviTi
sidide diskretulia, romelsac SeuZlia mxolod mTeli, arauaryofi-
Ti mniSvnelobebis miReba min(n
1
; m
1
)-mde. maSin am SemTxveviTi sididis
mier a mniSvnelobis miRebis albaToba tolia:
1
2 1
1
2 1
/ } {
m
n n
a m
n
a
n
C C C a X P
+
= = , a = 0,1,2,, min(n
1
; m
1
). (12.20)
albaTobaTa am ganawilebas ewodeba swored, hipergeometriuli ganawi-
leba.
Tu gavixsenebT 12.7 cxrilis obieqtebs da SevadarebT (12.20)
formulas, aSkarad aRmovaCenT msgavsebas da mivxvdebiT, rom albaTob-
is is zusti mniSvneloba, romelzedac zemoT iyo laparaki, swored
rom (12.20) formuliT gansazRruli albaTobaa. garda amisa, SevniSn-
oT, rom X SemTxveviTi sididis ricxviTi maxasiaTeblebia
EX = n
1
m
1
/n da DX = n
1
n
2
m
1
m
2
/(n
2
(n-1)), (12.21)
161
rac kidev erTxel adasturebs, rom X SemTxveviTi sididisa maTematik-
uri lodini da cxrilis (1,1) ujredis mosalodneli mniSvneloba er-
Tidaigive obieqtia.
gamoTvlebisaTvis ufro moxerxebelia albaTobis (12.20) zusti
mniSvneloba gadavweroT 22 cxrilis terminebSi Semdegi saxiT:
! ! ! ! !
)! ( )! ( )! ( )! (
} {
n d c b a
d b c b c a b a
a X P

+ + + +
= = . (12.22)
axla Cven mzad varT CamovayaliboT amocanis dasma hipoTezebis
terminebSi da moviyvanoT fiSeris kriteriumi. nulovani hipoTeza ase
yalibdeba: H
0
: p
1
= p
2
, sadac p
1
da p
2
Sesabamisad, pirveli da meore
striqonis proporciebia. alternativa, rogorc viciT, SeiZleba iyos
ormxrivi an calmxrivi (marcxena da marjvena). amitom alternatiuli
hipoTezisaTvis gvaqvs Semdegi sami SemTxveva:
1) H
1
: p
1
= p
2
; 2) H
1
: p
1
< p
2
; 3) H
1
: p
1
> p
2
.
fiSeris zusti kriteriumi Zalian hgavs erTamokrefiani bin-
omuri proporciisa da puasonis intensivobisTvis martivi hipoTezis
Semowmebis zust kriteriumebs, damyarebuls p-mniSvnelobis gamoTvla-
ze. davuSvaT, cxrilis (1,1) ujredSi dgas a ricxvi. maSin:
1) alternativis SemTxvevaSi p-mniSvneloba Semdegnairad iTvle-
ba:
p = 2 min(P{X s a}, P{X > a}, 1/2) = 2 min(P{X s a},1- P{X s a-1}, 1/2);
ba: p = P{X s a};
ba: p = P{X > a}= 1- P{X s a -1}.
samive SemTxvevaSi statistikuri kriteriumi ase yalibdeba:
Tu p-mniSvneloba sakmarisad mcirea (magaliTad, mcirea 0.05-ze,
0.01-ze da a.S.), maSin Sedegi statistikurad mniSvnelovania da maS-
asadame, H
0
: p
1
= p
2
hipoTeza unda uarvyoT, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi,
amis safuZveli ara gvaqvs.
am kriteriumis gamoyeneba cxadia, maSinacaa SesaZlebeli, roca
normaluri aproqsimacia dasaSvebia, magram erTaderTi sirTule am
kriteriumisa swored, albaTobaTa gamoangariSebaSia da amitomac amjo-
bineben normalur aproqsimacias, roca is SesaZlebelia, miT umetes,
rom aseT SemTxvevaSi orive gziT miRebuli Sedegebi sakmarisad axlo-
saa erTmaneTTan. gamoTvlebis gamartivebis mizniT, SevniSnoT, rom
P{X = k} albaTobebisaTvis, romlebic dagvWirdeba P{X s a}= P{X = 0} +
+ P{X = 1}++ P{X = a} albaTobis gamosaangariSeblad, samarTliania
Semdegi rekurentuli Tanafardoba:
P{X = k + 1}= P{X = k}((n
1
-k)/(k+1)) ((m
1
-k)/(n
2
-m
1
+k+1)). (12.23)
162
davubrundeT 12.4 magaliTs da (12.23)-is gamoyenebiT gamovTval-
oT p-mniSvneloba ormxrivi alternativisaTvis:
P{X = 1}= P{X = 0}((25-0)/(0+1)) ((7-0)/(35-7+0+1)) = 6.034 P{X = 0},
saidanac P{X s 1}= P{X =0}+P{X =1}=
= P{X = 0}+6.034 P{X = 0}=7.034P{X = 0}.
analogiurad,
P{X = 2}=P{X =1}((25-1)/(1+1))((7-1)/(35-7+1+1))=
= 2.4P{X =1}=2.46.034P{X = 0}=14.483P{X = 0},
amitom
P{X s 2}= P{X =0}+P{X =1}+P{X =2} =
= P{X = 0}+6.034P{X = 0}+14.483P{X = 0}= 21.517P{X = 0}.
(12.20) formulidan gvaqvs, rom
P{X = 0}= = =
7
60
7
35
7
60
0 7
35
0
25
/ / C C C C C
= =

=
60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53! 28!
53! 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28!
60! 28!
53! 35!
0174 . 0
30267
527
59 19 27
17 31
60 59 58 57 56 55 54
35 34 33 32 31 30 29
~ =

=

= .
amitom
P{X s 2}=21.517P{X = 0}=21.517 0.0174 ~ 0.3744;
P{X > 2}= 1- P{X s 1}= 1-7.034P{X = 0}=1-7.0340.0174 ~ 0.878
da p-mniSvneloba tolia
p = 2min(0.3744, 0.878, 0.5) = 20.3744 = 0.7488.
aqedan davaskvniT, rom p
1
da p
2
proporciebi mniSvnelovnad ar
gansxvavdebian da maSasadame, Cven ar SegviZlia imis Tqma, rom mlaSe
dietasa da sikvdilis mizezs Soris mniSvnelovani kavSiria.
12.7. maknemaris kriteriumi proporciebisaTvis dawyvilebul
monacemebSi.
am nawilSi Cven ganvagrZobT 22 SeuRlebis cxrilebis mimoxi-
lvas da gvainteresebs proporciebis Sedarebis sakiTxi, mxolod ara
damoukidebeli populaciebisaTvis, aramed dawyvilebuli monacemebisa-
Tvis. sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, bernulis SemTxveviTi sidideebi X
11
,
X
12
,, X
1n
da X
21
, X
22
,, X
2n
(romelTa SekrebiTacaa miRebuli Sesabami-
sad S
1
= X
11
+ X
12
+ + X
1n
da S
2
= X
21
+ X
22
+ + X
2n
dakvirvebadi bino-
muri SemTxveviTi sidideebi) ar arian wyvil-wyvilad damoukidebeli,
ris gamoc araa damoukidebeli TviTon S
1
da S
2
binomuri SemTxveviTi
sidideebi.
magaliTi 12.5. undodaT SeedarebinaT mkerdis kibos ori qimioT-
erapiuli reJimi masteqtomiis (mastectomy) Semdeg. amisaTvis SeirCa
avadmyofTa ori jgufi da isini daawyviles iseTnairad, rom wyvilebis
163
asakebs Soris ar yofiliyo didi sxvaoba (araumetes 5 weli) da maT
hqonodaT TiTqmis erTnairi winaswar gansazRvruli monacemebi. amis
Semdeg, yoveli wyvilis SemTxveviT arCeul wevrs utardeboda A tipis
(pirveli kviris ganmavlobaSi masteqtomiidan da ase 6 Tvis ganmavlob-
aSi), meores ki B tipis qimioTerapia (mxolod pirveli kviris ganmav-
lobaSi masteqtomiidan). avadmyofebis mkurnalobaze dakvirveba mimdina-
reobda 5 wlis ganmavlobaSi da miiRes Semdegi monacemebi:
qimioTerapiis gardaicvala 5 wlis manZilze cxrili 12.10
tipi ara ki
A 526 95 621
B 515 106 621
sul 1041 201 1242
cxadia, rom aseTnairad Sedgenili SeuRlebis cxrili A da B
tipis qimioTerapiis efeqturobaze verafers gvetyvis, radgan gardac-
vlilTa (an piriqiT, gadarCenilTa) raodenobebi sakmarisad axlosaa
erTmaneTTan, ufro sworad, erTmaneTTan axlosaa proporciaTa Sefase-
bebi:
n
p
1
~
= 95/621=0.153 da
n
p
1
~
=106/621=0.171 da iatsis
2
(1)-kriter-
iumis statistikis mniSvnelobaa 0.59, rac umniSvneloa Sesabamisi po-
pulaciebis p
1
da p
2
proporciebis gasarCevad. garda amisa, SevniSnoT,
rom aq monacemTa saerTo raodenobaa n = 1242, rac eqsperiments ar Se-
esabameba, radgan Cven vukvirdebodiT sinamdvileSi wyvilebs monacemebi-
sa, romelTa raodenobaa n = 621. amitom swori daskvnebis gasakeTeblad
saWiroa Sesamisi (swori) cxrilis ageba. mas Semdegi saxe aqvs:
gardaicvala 5
wlis manZilze
gardaicvala 5 wlis manZilze
B tipis Terapia
cxrili 12.11
A tipis Terapia ara ki
ara 510 16 526
ki 5 90 95
sul 515 106 621
am cxrilis ujredebSi Cawerili ricxvebi gviCvenebs ukve im
wyvilebis raodenobas, romlis wevrebic xuTi wlis Semdeg orive co-
cxalia ((1,1) ujredi); A tipis TerapiiT cocxalia, B-Ti ki ara
((1,2) ujredi); B tipis TerapiiT cocxalia, A-Ti ki ara ((2,1) ujre-
di) da wyvilis orive wevri gardaicvala ((2,2) ujredi).
164
radgan SerCevebi araa damoukidebeli, proporciaTa Sesadarebl-
ad
2
kriteriumi ar gamogvadgeba. aseT SemTxvevebSi iyeneben maknemar-
is kriteriums. am kriteriumis aRsawerad xmaroben aseT terminebs:
wyvils, romelSic aRiricxa erTidaigive Sedegi SeTanxmebuli anu kon-
kordantuli (concordant), xolo wyvils, sadac aRiricxa sxvadasvxa
Sedegi SeuTanxmebeli, anu diskordantuli (discordant) wyvili ewod-
eba. cxadia, rom konkordantuli wyvilebi arafers gveubneba mkurnal-
obis tipis efeqturobis Sesaxeb da amitomac isini ar monawileobs
kriteriumis statistkis gamosaxulebaSi (ix. qvemoT) da piriqiT, swo-
red diskordantul wyvilebSi aRmoCenili gansxvaveba metyvelebs mkur-
nalobis efeqturobaze da amitomac maknemaris statistikac maTzea age-
buli. SevniSnoT, rom diskordantuli wyvilebi ornairia, pirobiTad,
(A, B
C
) da (A
C
, B). gasagebia, rom Tu am ori tipis wyvilebis raodenob-
ebi axlosaa erTmaneTTan, maSin Zneli unda iyos imis garCeva Tu mkur-
nalobis romeli tipi romels jobia. fardobiTi sixSireebis termineb-
Si es imas niSnavs, rom TiToeuli diskordantuli tipis wyvilebis
fardobiTi sixSire axlosaa 0.5-Tan. amitomac hipoTeza da alternati-
va swored diskordantuli tipis wyvilebis albaTobis terminebSi gam-
oiTqmeba.
aRvniSnoT (A, B
C
) tipis diskordantuli SemTxvevis moxdenis
albaToba p-Ti. maSin nulovani hipoTeza ase yalibdeba: H
0
: p = 0.5, xo-
lo alternativaa H
1
: p = 0.5. aRvniSnoT n
D
-Ti diskordantuli wyvil-
ebis saerTo raodenoba, xolo X
D,A
-Ti diskordantuli (A, B
C
) tipis
wyvilebis raodenoba, romelic binomurad ganawilebulia parametrebiT
n
D
da p. amitom E X
D,A
= n
D
p da DX
D,A
= n
D
p(1-p), xolo H
0
: p = 0.5
hipoTezis samarTlianobis SemTxvevaSi, E X
D,A
= n
D
/ 2 da DX
D,A
= n
D
/ 4.
aqedan gasagebia Tu rogor unda aigos kriteriumi: roca n
D
/ 4 > 5, anu
n
D
> 20, SegviZlia gamoviyenoT binomuri ganawilebis normaluri apro-
qsimacia. winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, ki p-mniSvnelobaze damyarebuli zus-
ti kriteriumi, rogorc amas vakeTebdiT binomuri ganawilebis parame-
tris Sesaxeb martivi hipoTezis Sesamowmeblad erTamokrefian amocana-
Si.
sabolood, normaluri aproqsimaciis SemTxvevaSi, anu n
D
> 20,
maknemaris (Sesworebul) kriteriumis statistikas warmoadgens sidide
T
D
= (|X
D,A
- n
D
/ 2| - 1/2)
2
/( n
D
/ 4), (12.24)
romelsac hipoTezis samarTlianobis SemTxvevaSi, cxadia, aqvs
2
(1) -
ganawileba da amitom kriteriumi ase yalibdeba:
Tu T
D
D
= (|n
A
- n
D
/ 2| - 1/2)
2
/(n
D
/ 4)
mniSvnelobisaTvis, sadac n
A
aRniSnavs cxrilSi diskordantuli (A,
B
C
) tipis wyvilebis raodenobas, mocemuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisa-
Tvis sruldeba piroba
165
t
D
>
2
1 , 1 o
_

, (12.25)
0
: p = 0.5 hipoTezas uarvyofT, winaa-
Rmdeg SemTxvevaSi, amis safuZveli ara gvaqvs.
Tu normaluri aproqsimaciis dauSvebelia, anu n
D
< 20, maSin
Semdegnairad viTvliT p-mniSvnelobas
=
=
A
D
n
k
k k
n
C p
0
5 . 0 2 , roca n
A
s n
D
/2,
=
=
D
A
D
n
n k
k k
n
C p 5 . 0 2 , roca n
A
> n
D
/2 (12.26)
da Tu is 0.05-ze (0.01-ze) naklebia, hipoTezas uarvyofT, winaaRmdeg
SemTxvevaSi, amis safuZveli ara gvaqvs.
davubrundeT 12.5 magaliT. cxadia, rom n
D
= 21 > 20, anu norma-
luri aproqsimacia dasaSvebia. cxadia, aseve, rom n
A
= 5 da
t
D
= (|5 - 21 / 2| - 1/2)
2
/(21 / 4) = 4.76. aviRoT o = 0.05. maSin
2
95 . 0 , 1
_ =3.84.
radgan 4.76 > 3.84, o = 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis doniT H
0
: p = 0.5 hipoTe-
zas uarvyofT, anu p = 0.5. gasagebia isic, rom p < 0.5, anu A tipis qi-
mioTerapiiT mkurnaloba jobia B-Ti mkurnalobas.
amocanebi
1. populaciaSi garkveuli Tmis feris mqone mamakacebisa da qa-
lebis Tanafardoba daaxloebiT Tanabaria. satelevizio gmirebis SemT-
xvevaSi es ase ar aris. mkvlevars ainteresebda daedgina arsebobs Tu
ara kavSiri satelevizio gadacemebis personaJi qalebis Tmis fersa da
karieras Soris. cxrilSi mocemulia kvlevis Sedegebi.
Tmis feri
Q qera muqi
Pprofesiuli 36 48
kariera
K araprofesiuli 24 72
1.1 ra kriteriumi unda gamoiyenoT imis dasadgenaT arsebobs Tu ara
kavSiri Tmis fersa da karieras Soris?
1.2 dakavSirebulia Tu ara satelevizio personaJis samsaxuris done
misi Tmis ferTan?
2. kvlevebma aCvena, rom pirvel Svilebs, rogorc wesi, ukeTesi
Sedegebi aqvT akademiur testebSi, vidre rigiT momdevno Svilebs.
dabadebis rigi
P pirveli Svili momdevno Svili A
kreatulobis zeda mesamedi 47 29
testis qula Sua mesamedi 29 35
166
qveda mesamedi 24 36
aris Tu ara kavSiri dabadebis rigsa da kreatulobas Soris mamakaceb-
Si? gamoiyeneT mniSnelovnobis 0.05 done.
3. fsiqiatriul ganyofilebaSi Semosuli axali klientebis mi-
Rebis kategorizacia moxda mTvaris fazebis mixedviT. miRebuli iyo
Semdegi monacemebi:
savse mTvare axali mTvare pirveli meoTxedi mesame meoTxedi
62 50 60 56
gansxvavebulia Tu ara miRebuli klientebis raodenoba mTvaris fazis
mixedviT? gamoiyeneT Tanxmobis kriteriumi.
4. ra SemTxvevebSi ixmareba araparametruli kriteriumebi?
5. ra saxis monacemebis analizi aris xi-kvadrat kriteriumisaT-
vis Sesaferisi?
6. ra aris warmodgenili niSanTa SeuRlebis cxrilis svetebSi?
7. ra aris warmodgenili niSanTa SeuRlebis cxrilis striqone-
bSi?
8. mkvlevari akvirdeboda im avtomobilebis raodenobas, romleb-
ic sdeq niSanze ar Cerdebodnen.
K kviris dRe
samSabaTi oTxSabaTi xuTSabaTi
D dilis 10:00-dan 38 46 58
dro
SuadRis 2:00-dan 46 54 63
3:00-mde
aris Tu ara aseTi qcevis sixSire damokidebuli dRis drosa da kvir-
is dReze?
9. aris mosazreba, rom mamakacebis mier qalebis mosaZebnad gan-
Tavsebul gancxadebebSi ufro xSirad aRniSnulia wonis moTxovna, vi-
dre qalebis mier mamakacebis mosaZebnad ganTavsebul gancxadebebSi. am
hipoTezis Sesamowmeblad gamoikvlies piradi gancxadebebis garkveuli
raodenoba da moaxdines maTi kategorizacia gancxadebis avtoris sqes-
isa da gancxadebaSi sasurveli wonis aRniSvna-araRniSvnis mixedviT.
aRniSnuli iyo Tu ara sasurveli wona
diax ara
mamakacis gancxadeba 89 186
qalis gancxadeba 6 219
arsebobs Tu ara am monacemebs Soris is kavSiri, rasac mosazreba var-
audobs?
10. fsiqologma SemTxveviT SearCia 8 vaJi da maT gaacno ganaT-
lebis programa. 6 kviris Semdeg man am vaJebs Seavsebina kiTxvari al-
koholis moxmarebis Sesaxeb. Aamavdroulad man SearCia 10 sxva vaJi,
167
romlebic ar gascnobian alkoholis moxmarebis winaaRmdeg programas
da maTac Seavsebina kiTxvari. yoveldRiurad moxmarebuli alkoholis
raodenoba unciebSi Semdegnairi aRmoCnda:
gaiara programa 0.31 0.53 0.58 0.14 0.16 0.52 0.53 0.02
ar gauvlia programa 0.41 0.63 1.14 0.21 0.89 0.55 0.89 0.91 0.08 0.59
man-uitnis kriteriumis gamoyenebiT SeamowmeT moaxdina Tu ara alkoh-
olis moxmarebis sawinaaRmdego saganmanaTleblo programam gavlena im
adamianebis mier alkoholis moxmarebaze, vinc am programas gaecno.
l e q c i a 13.
12.8. SerCevis moculobis gansazRvra da kriteriumis simZlavre
ori binomuri proporciebis Sedarebisas.
am nawilSi Cven SevexebiT imave tipis amocanas, rogoric ganxi-
luli iyo 9.5 punqtSi: SerCevis im minimaluri moculobis gansazRr-
as, romelic saWiroa mocemuli mniSvnelovnebis donisas dasaxelebuli
simZlavris misaRwevad ori normaluri populaciis saSualoTa tolo-
bis Sesaxeb hipoTezaTa garCevis amocanaSi. gansxvaveba cxadia, isaa,
rom axla ukve Sesadarebeli populaciebi binomuria da ara normalu-
ri.
12.8.1. damoukidebeli populaciebis SemTxveva.
ganvixiloT jer damoukidebeli populaciebis SemTxveva. rog-
orc gvaxsovs, hipoTeza da alternativa, Sesabamisad, ase yalibdeba:
H
0
: p
1
= p
2
da H
1
: p
1
= p
2
. garda amisa, rogorc 12.2 punqtidan gvaxs-
ovs,
1
1
~
n
p ~N(p
1
; p
1
(1- p
1
)/n
1
) da
2
2
~
n
p ~ N(p
2
; p
2
(1-p
2
)/n
2
) da
1
1
~
n
p -
2
2
~
n
p
sxvaoba warmoadgens damoukidebeli normaluri SemTxveviTi sidideebis
sxvaobas, romelic isev normalurad ganawilebuli alternativis sama-
rTlianobis SemTxvevaSi. misi saSualo tolia p
1
- p
2
sididis. amitom
kriteriumis simZlavris gamoTvla o mniSvnelovnebis donis dros xde-
ba Semdegi formulis saSualebiT:
.
|
\
|
+
+
u =

) / )
~
1 (
~
/ )
~
1 (
~
) / 1 / 1 ( )
~
1 (
~
|
~ ~
|
1
2 2 2 1 1 1
2 1 , , 2 / 1 2 1
2 2 1 1
2 1 2 1 2 1
n p p n p p
n n p p z p p
n n n n
n n n n n n o
| , (12.27)
sadac
1
1
~
n
p x
1
/ n
1
,
2
2
~
n
p x
2
/ n
2
da
2 1
2 2 1 1
2 1
2 1
,
2 1
2 1
~ ~
~
n n
p n p n
n n
x x
p
n n
n n
+
+
=
+
+
= .
168
SerCevaTa moculobebis dadgenisas ki, gvinda, rom simZlavre ar
iyos (1-|)-ze naklebi. garda amisa, vTqvaT, k n
2
/ n
1
. maSin (12.27)-dan
saWiro SerCevis moculobisaTvis samarTliania Semdegi formula:
1 1 2 2
1 2
2
1 / 2 1 1 2 2 1
1 2
1 2
( (1 )(1 1/ ) (1 ) (1 ) / ) )
( )
k k n n n n
n n
p p k z p p p p k z
n
p p
o |
+ + +
>

(sadac
k
p k p
p
n n
k
+
+
1
~ ~
~ 2 1
2 1
, n
2
= k n
1
). (12.28)
magaliTi 12.6. davuSvaT daigegma gamokvleva samkurnalo da qir-
urgiuli Carevebis Sesadareblad bavSvebSi, romlebsac pirveli sami
wlis ganmavlobaSi aqvT otitis (yuris anTebis, OTM-otitis media) met-
ismetad xSiri SemTxvevebi. mkurnalobaTa warmatebis SemTxvevebi Sesab-
amisad, 50% da 70%-s Seadgens. warmatebaSi igulisxmeba OTM-is ara-
umetes erTi SemTxvevisa samedicino Carevidan erTi wlis ganmavloba-
Si. realisturia TiToeul jgufSi 100-100 pacientis CarTva. rogori
iqneba kriteriumis simZlavre o = 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis?
amoxsna. mocemulobis Tanaxmad,
1
1
~
n
p = 0.5,
2
2
~
n
p = 0.7 da radgan
n
1
=n
2
=100, amitom gvaqvs:
2 1
,
~
n n
p =(n
1
1
1
~
n
p + n
2
2
2
~
n
p )/(n
1
+n
2
)=(
1
1
~
n
p +
2
2
~
n
p )/2=(0.5+0.7)/2= 0.6.
vinaidan z
1- 0.05/2
= z
0.975
=1.96, (12.27) formulis Tanaxmad, gveqneba:
83 . 0 ) 947 . 0 (
100 / ) 7 . 0 1 ( 7 . 0 100 / ) 5 . 0 1 ( 5 . 0
) 100 / 1 100 / 1 )( 6 . 0 1 ( 6 . 0 96 . 1 | 7 . 0 5 . 0 |
1 = u ~
.
|
\
|
+
+
u = | .
maSasadame, 100-100 pacientis CarTvisas, ori tipis mkurnalob-
ebs Soris mniSvnelovani (o = 0.05) gansxvavebis daWera SesaZlebelia
83%SemTxvevaSi.
magaliTi 12.7. davuSvaT pirobebi iseTivea, rogorc wina magali-
TSi. iq Cven realisturad CavTvaleT 100-100 pacientis CarTva gamokv-
levaSi, magram zogierTi mizezis gamo eqsperimentis gegmis mixedviT
warmarTva ar xerxdeba. aRvniSnoT, Tundac is faqti, rom bavSvebis
mSobelTa 75% uars ambobs qirurgiul Carevaze da amis gamo, Cven Se-
gviZelia mxolod n
2
= n
1
/4 monacemis mopoveba. ramxela unda aviRoT Se-
rCevaTa moculobebi, rom o = 0.05 mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis kriter-
iumis simZlavre iyos aranakleb 83%-isa?
amoxsna. mocemulobiT isev gvaqvs
1
1
~
n
p = 0.5,
2
2
~
n
p = 0.7 magram ra-
dgan n
1
= n
2
da n
2
= n
1
/4 e.i. k =1/4 da amitom
k
p
~
= (
1
1
~
n
p + k
2
2
~
n
p )/(1+k) = (0.5 + 0.250.7)/(1+0.25) = 0.54.
normaluri ganawilebis kvantilebis cxrilebidan vpoulobT, rom z
0.975
=1.96, z
0.83
= 0.95 da (12.28) formulis mixedviT, sabolood gvaqvs:
169
,
174 . 251
) 7 . 0 5 . 0 (
95 . 0 4 3 . 0 7 . 0 5 . 0 5 . 0 96 . 1 ) 25 . 0 / 1 1 ( 46 . 0 54 . 0
2
2
1
~
+ + +
> n ,
saidanac davaskvniT, rom n
1
= 252 da n
2
= 252/4 = 63.
12.8.2. dawyvilebuli monacemebis SemTxveva.
ganvixiloT axla dawyvilebuli monacemebis SemTxveva, romlis-
aTvisac populaciebi aRaraa damoukidebeli. rogorc 12.5 punqtidan
viciT, am SemTxvevaSi gamoiyeneba maknemaris kriteriumi, romelic Tav-
is mxriv, kerZo SemTxveva iyo erTamokrefiani amocanisa binomuri para-
metris Sesaxeb. amitom gavixsenoT (9.12) da (9.13) formulebs me-8
leqciidan, romlebsac kriteriumis simZlavrisa da SerCevis moculob-
isaTvis, Sesabamisad, Semdegi saxe hqondaT
.
|
\
|
.
|
\
|
u = n
p p
p p
z
p p
p p
) 1 (
| |
) 1 (
) 1 (
1
0 0
1 0
2 /
1 1
0 0
o
| , (9.12
)
2
0 0
1 1
1 2 / 1
2
1 0
0 0
) 1 (
) 1 (
) (
) 1 (
.
|
\
|
>

p p
p p
z z
p p
p p
n
| o
. (9.13
)
maknemaris kriteriumis SemTxvevaSi hipoteturi p = p
0
=1/2, xo-
lo alternativis rolSi aviRoT p
1
= p
A
A tipis diskordantuli
wyvilebis wili saerTo diskordantul wyvilebs Soris. maSin kriter-
iumis simZlavrisa da diskordantuli monacemebis raodenobisaTvis, Se-
sabamisad, gveqneba:
.
|
\
|

+
u =
) 1 ( 2
| 1 2 |
1
2 /
A A
D A
p p
n p z
o
| , (12.29)
,
2
2
1 2 / 1
) 2 / 1 ( 4
) 1 ( 2

+
>

A
A A
D
p
p p z z
n
| o
. (12.30)
imisaTvis, rom gamovTvaloT ara diskordantuli wyvilebis, ar-
amed wyvilebis saerTo raodenoba, aRvniSnoT p
D
-Ti albaToba imisa,
rom SemTxveviT amorCeuli wyvili iqneba diskordantuli. maSin cxa-
dia, rom p
D
= n
D
/ n, saidanac n
D
= n p
D
da (12.30) formulaSi CavsvaT
es mniSvneloba. miviRebT:
,
2
2
1 2 / 1
) 2 / 1 ( 4
) 1 ( 2

+
>

A D
A A
p p
p p z z
n
| o
. (12.31)
aseve gasagebia, rom Tu Cven gvainteresebs ara wyvilebis, aramed
individebis raodenoba, maSin ukanaskneli formuliT gamoTvlili n si-
dide unda gavamravloT 2-ze.
magaliTi 12.8. davuSvaT pirobebi iseTivea, rogorc 12.5 magali-
TSi A da B tipis qimioTerapiiT mkurnalobis efeqtis Sedarebaze da
170
aRmoCnda, rom 400 dawyvilebuli monacemidan, wyvilebis 85% konkor-
dantulia, anu maTi wevrebi iqcevian erTnairad: orive gadarCa, an
orive gardaicvala. garda amisa, (A,B
C
) tipis diskordantuli wyvile-
bis raodenoba Seadgens diskordantuli wyvilebis saerTo raodenobis
2/3-s. rogoria maknemaris kriteriumis simZlavre o = 0.05 mniSvnelo-
vnebis donisaTvis?
amoxsna. mocemulobis Tanaxmad, o = 0.05, p
D
= 1-0.85 = 0.15, p
A
=
=2/3 da n = 400. radgan z
0.025
= -z
0.975
= -1.96, amitom (12.29) formuliT,
gveqneba:
745 . 0 ) 66 . 0 (
) 3 / 1 ( ) 3 / 2 ( 2
15 . 0 400 | 1 3 / 2 2 | 96 . 1
1 = u ~
.
|
\
|

+
u = | .
maSasadame, 400 dawyvilebuli monacemisaTvis, statistikuri mniSvnel-
ovnebis aRmoCena SeiZleba eqsperimentebis daaxloebiT 75%-Si.
magaliTi 12.9. davuSvaT igivea rac wina magaliTSi, magram Cven
gvainteresebs ufro maRali simZlavris, 90%-is, miRweva. ramden adam-
ianze dakvirvebaa eqsperimentSi saWiro?
amoxsna. mocemulobis mixedviT, o = 0.05, p
D
= 1-0.85 = 0.15, p
A
=
=2/3 da 1-| = 0.9. radgan z
0.975
= 1.96 da z
0.9
= 1.28, amitom (12.31) form-
uliT,
,
32 . 601
0167 . 0
1668 . 3
) 2 / 1 3 / 2 ( 15 . 0 4
3 / 1 3 / 2 28 . 1 2 96 . 1
) (
2
2
2
~ ~

+
> wyvilebis n .
maSasadame, sabolood, n(adamianebis) = 2602 = 1204.
12.9. SeuRlebis r c cxrilebi.
wina punqtebSi yvelgan laparaki iyo SeuRlebis 22 cxrileb-
ze, anu yoveli Sesaswavl sidides mxolod ori kategoria gaaCnda.
xSirad erT an orive Sesaswavl sidides SeiZleba orze meti katego-
ria gaaCndes da amitomac Cndeba SeuRlebis 22 cxrilebis ganzogad-
ebis saWiroeba SeuRlebis r c cxrilebamde, anu cxrilebamde, romel-
Sic Sesaswavli sididdeebis kategoriebi warmodgenilia r striqonsa
da c svetSi.
magaliTi 12.10. gavixsenoT 12.1 magaliTi, sadac laparaki iyo
mkerdis kibosa da qalis pirveli mSobiarobis asakze. im magaliTSi
erT-erTi dakvirvebadi sidide qalis asaki sul or kategoriad iyo
dayofili: pirveli mSobiaroba hqondaT 30-ze meti an toli wlis asa-
kSi da pirveli mSobiaroba hqondaT 30 welze qvemoT. davuSvaT axla,
rom Cven ufro dawvrilebiT viciT Sesaswavli qalebis pirveli mSobi-
arobis asakebi, kerZod, SesaZlo asakobrivi intervali dayofilia 5
kategoriad da CvenTvis cnobilia TiToeul kategoriaSi qalebis rao-
171
denobebi orive jgufis qalebisaTvis, visac aqvs mkerdis kibo da visac
es daavadeba ara aqvs. Sedegebi warmodgenilia Semdeg cxrilSi:
kategoria qalisAasaki pirveli mSobiarobisas cxrili 12.12
kibo < 20 20-24 25-29 30-34 >35 sul
aqvs 320 1206 1011 463 220 3220
Ara aqvs 1422 4432 2893 1092 406 10245
sul 1742 5638 3904 1555 626 13465
kibos %-ebi 18.4 21.4 25.9 29.8 35.1 23.9
Cven gvinda davadginoT damokidebuleba pirveli mSobiarobis asaksa da
mkerdis kibos Soris. rogor unda gakeTdes es?
rogorc vxedavT, saqme gvaqvs SeuRlebis 25 cxrilTan da bun-
ebrivia, am cxrilsac davuZaxoT dakvirvebuli SeuRlebis cxrili. 22
cxrilis SemTxvevis msgavsad, aqac unda avagoT Sesabamisi mosalodne-
li SeuRlebis cxrili da bolos es cxrilebi SevadaroT. imisaTvis
rom gamovTvaloT ukansknelis (i,j) ujredSi Casaweri E
ij
elementi, uf-
ro swored, ki misi Sefaseba
ij
E
~
, i =1,2, j=1,2,3,4,5 (ix. qvemoT zogadi
SemTxveva), viqceviT isev ise, rogorc 22 cxrilebisaTvis: i-uri
striqonisa da j-uri svetis marginaluri mniSvnelobebis namravls
vyofT cxrilis elementebis saerTo raodenobaze. magaliTad,
11
~
E = 3220 1742/13465 ~ 416.6,
12
~
E = 3220 5638/13465 ~ 1348.3,
21
~
E = 10245 1742/13465 ~ 1325.4,
25
~
E = 10245 626/13465 ~ 476.3.
yvela
ij
E
~
elementis gamoTvlis Semdeg miviRebT, rom mosalodn-
el SeuRlebis cxrils aqvs Semdegi saxe:
kategoria qalisAasaki pirveli mSobiarobisas cxrili 12.13
kibo < 20 20-24 25-29 30-34 >35 sul
aqvs 416.6 1348.3 933.6 371.9 149.7 3220
Ara aqvs 1325.4 4289.7 2970.4 1183.1 476.3 10245
sul 1742 5638 3904 1555 626 13465
sazogadod, unda iTqvas, rom SeuRlebis r c cxrilebic 22
cxrilebis msgavsad, gamoiyeneba ori ZiriTadi tipis amocanebSi: erTis
mxriv, erTi SerCeva raime populaciidan dayofilia r da c kategorie-
bad ori sxvadasxva niSnis mixedviT da ainteresebT am niSnebis damou-
kideblobis sakiTxi (niSanTa damoukideblobis amocana), xolo meore
tipis amocanebSi, mocemulia dakvirvebebi c sxvadasxva populaciaze,
romlebic erTidaimave, garkveuli niSnis mixedviT klasificirebulia
or alternatiul (atributul) kategoriad da ainteresebT, aris Tu
ara sxvadasxva populaciis monacemTa proporciebi erTnairi (erTgvar-
ovani) yoveli konkretuli kategoriisaTvis (populaciaTa erTgvarov-
nebis amocana).
172
dakvirvebuli SeuRlebis cxrilebs (ricxvebis doneze) orive
SemTxvevaSi msgavsi forma aqvT, magram isini, gaazrebuli SemTxveviTi
sidideebis TvalsazrisiT, sxvadasxva Sinaarsis matarebelia. kerZod,
arsebiTia is Tu, ramdeni bma aqvs cxrilis ujredebSi moTavsebul
SemTxveviT sidideebs.
niSanTa damoukideblobis amocanaSi dakvirvebuli SeuRlebis
cxrils Semdegi saxe aqvs:
kategoriebi II niSniT cxrili 12.14 kategoriebi I
niSniT 1 2 . . . c
sul
1 O
11
O
12
. . . O
1c
- 1
O
2 O
21
O
22
. . . O
2c
- 2
O
. . .
r O
r1
O
r2
. . . O
rc
- r
O
sul
1 -
O
2 -
O . . .
c
O
- - -
O
sadac

=
-

c
j
ij i
O O
1
, i = 1,2,,r;

=
-

r
i
ij j
O O
1
, j = 1,2,,c da
- -
O
= =
r
i
c
j
ij
O
1 1
.
SevniSnoT, rom
- -
O = n, sadac n-iT aRniSnulia SerCevis mocul-
oba. ase, rom O
ij
SemTxveviT sidideebs gaaCniaT erTaderTi bma:
= =
r
i
c
j
ij
O
1 1
= n. (12.32)
vnaxoT axla rogori saxe aqvs imave cxrils populaciaTa erT-
gvarovnebis amocanaSi:
SerCeva cxrili 12.15
kategoria
1 2 . . . c
sul
1 O
11
O
12
. . . O
1c
- 1
O
2 O
21
O
22
. . . O
2c
- 2
O
sul
1 -
O
2 -
O . . .
c
O
- - -
O
sadac kvlav

=
-

c
j
ij i
O O
1
, i = 1,2;
j j j
O O O
2 1
+
-
, j = 1,2,,c da
- -
O
= =
r
i
c
j
ij
O
1 1
, magram aq ukve
j
O
-
= n
j
, j = 1,2,,c, sadac n
j
aRniSnavs j-
uri SerCevis moculobas da maSasadame, O
ij
SemTxveviT sidideebs gaaCn-
iaT ukve c bma:
O
1j
+ O
2j
, j = 1,2,,c. (12.33)
(12.32) da (12.33) formulebiT gamoTqmuli kavSirebi O
ij
SemTxv-
eviT sidideebs Soris, sxvanairad SeiZleba asec gamovTqvaT: pirvel
173
SemTxvevaSi, marginaluri striqonis mxolod bolo svetSi Cawerili
ricxvia (
- -
O ) fiqsirebuli, maSin, roca meore SemTxvevaSi, mTeli mar-
ginaluri striqonia fiqsirebuli.
aRvniSnoT p
ij
-Ti, i = 1,2,,r, j = 1,2,,c, (12.14) cxrilis (i, j)-ur
ujredSi moxvedris albaToba. pirveli tipis amocanebSi es iqneba alb-
aToba imisa, rom populaciis SemTxveviT amorCeuli elementi moxvdeba
I niSnis i-ur da II niSnis j-ur kategoriebSi. garda amisa, aRvniSnoT
marginaluri albaTobebi
- i
p da
j
p
-
-Ti. maSasadame,
- i
p aRniSnavs pop-
ulaciis SemTxveviT amorCeuli elemntis I niSnis i-ur kategoriaSi
moxvedris albaTobas, imis miuxedavad II niSnis romel kategoriaSi
moxvda is da aseve,
j
p
-
populaciis SemTxveviT amorCeuli elementis
II niSnis jur kategoriaSi moxvedris albaTobaa, imis miuxedavad II
niSnis romel kategoriaSi moxvda is.
=
-

c
j
ij i
p p
1
, i = 1,2,,r da

=
-

r
i
ij j
p p
1
, j = 1,2,,c. (12.34)
vnaxoT axla, Tu rogor yalibdeba nulovani hipoTeza da alte-
rnativa niSanTa damoukideblobis SemTxvevaSi da rogori saxe aqvs mo-
salodneli SeuRlebis cxrils. rogorc albaTobis Teoriidan gvaxs-
ovs, ori xdomilobis damoukidebloba niSnavda maTi erTdroulad mox-
denis albaTobis tolobas calkeuli xdomilobis albaTobaTa namrav-
lTan. amitom yoveli (i,j) ujredisaTvis (sul cota) unda sruldebo-
des piroba
p
ij
=
j i
p p
- -
, i = 1,2,,r, j = 1,2,,c. (12.35)
rogorc viciT, E
ij
= EO
ij
= np
ij
, xolo damoukideblobis hipoTe-
zis samarTlianobisas, E
ij
= np
ij
=
- -
O
j i
p p
- -
. magram roca Cven ar vic-
iT
- i
p da
j
p
-
albaTobebi, maT magivrad viRebT Sesabamis Sefasebebs
- i
p
~
=
- i
O /
- -
O da
j
p
-
~
=
j
O
-
/
- -
O da mosalodneli sidideebis rolSi gamo-
dis, is razec laparaki iyo 12.10 magaliTSi mosalodneli SeuRlebis
(12.13) cxrilis agebis dros, anu
ij
E
~
=
- i
O
j
O
-
/
- -
O . amitom mosalodne-
li SeuRlebis cxrils aqvs Semdegi saxe:
kategoria II niSniT cxrili 12.15 kategoria
I niSniT 1 2 . . . c
sul
1
11
~
E
12
~
E . . .
c
E
1
~
- 1
O
2
21
~
E
22
~
E . . .
c
E
2
~
- 2
O
. . .
r
1
~
r
E
2
~
r
E . . .
rc
E
~
- r
O
174
sul
1 -
O
2 -
O . . .
c
O
- - -
O
vnaxoT axla, Tu rogor yalibdeba nulovani hipoTeza da alte-
rnativa populaciaTa erTgvarovnebis SemTxvevaSi. rogorc zemoT aRvn-
iSneT, am SemTxvevaSi gvainteresebs, aris Tu ara sxvadasxva populaci-
is monacemTa proporciebi erTnairi orive kategoriisaTvis. cxadia, sa-
kmarisia SevamowmoT es hipoTeza mxolod erT-erTi kategoriisaTvis,
radgan meoreSi is avtomaturad igive pasuxs mogvcems. ase, rom nulo-
vani hipoTezaa H
0
: p
11
= p
12
= = p
1c
. alternativaa, rom ori albaTo-
ba mainc gansxvavebulia.
statistikuri kriteriumebis asagebad vmsjelobT isev ise, rog-
orc 22 cxrilis dros: ramdenadac ufro daSorebuli iqneba SeuRl-
ebis dakvirvebuli da mosalodneli cxrilis ujredebSi moTavsebuli
Sesabamisi ricxvebi, hipoTezis samarTlianobis miT ufro naklebi San-
sia. am ricxvebis siaxlovis sazomad ki (i,j) ujredisaTvis kvlav viyen-
ebT (O
ij
- E
ij
)
2
/ E
ij
sidides, i = 1,2,,r, j = 1,2,,c, xolo kriteriumis
statistikad viRebT maT jams, anu
= =
=
r
i
c
j
ij ij ij rc
E E O T
1 1
2
/ ) ( , (12.36)
romelsac mtikcdeba, rom H
0
hipoTezis samarTlianobis dros aqvs
2
((r-1)(c-1))-ganawileba. garda amisa, erTgvarovnebis amocanaSi yvelaf-
eri igivea, ubralod, am SemTxvevaSi, r = 2.
sabolood, statistikuri kriteriumi aseTnairad yalibdeba:
Tu dasaxelebuli mniSvnelovnebis o donisaTvis T
rc
statistik-
is dakvirvebuli t
rc
mniSvneloba metia _
2
(r-1)(c-1),1-o
sidideze, maSin H
0
hipoTezas uarvyofT, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, amis safuZveli ara
gvaqvs.
Sesabamisi p-mniSvneloba tolia p = P{_
2
(r-1)(c-1)
> t
rc
}.
erTaderTi, rac am kriteriumis gamoyenebisas unda gvaxsovdes
isaa, rom daculi iyos Semdegi pirobebi: a) mosalodneli SeuRlebis
cxrilis arcerT ujredSi ar unda iyos 1-anze naklebi ricxvi da b)
5-anze naklebi sididis ujredebis raodenoba ar unda aRematebodes
mosalodneli SeuRlebis cxrilis ujredebis saerTo raodenobis mex-
uTed nawils, anu r c/5-s.
davubrundeT 12.10 magaliTs da vnaxoT, ras mogvcems kriteriu-
mi. SevniSnoT, rom radgan Cvens SemTxvevaSi, r = 2 da c = 5, Cveni amoca-
na 25 cxrilis tipis amocanaa da amitom nulovan hipoTezaze SegviZ-
lia vilaparakoT niSanTa damoukideblobis (mkerdis kibo da pirveli
mSobiarobis asaki) terminebSic da 5 damoukidebeli binomuri popula-
ciis erTgvarovnebis (sxvadasxva asakobrivi intervalis qalebisaTvis
mkerdis kibos proporciebis) terminebSic. 12.13 cxrilidan vxedavT,
175
rom yvela mosalodneli sidide > 5-ze. amitom 12.12 da 12.13 cxrile-
bis saSualebiT gamovTvaloT T
2,5
2,5
mniSv-
neloba:
t
2,5
= (320-416.6)
2
/416.6+(1206-1348.3)
2
/1348.3+(1011-933.6)
2
/933.6+
+(463-371.9)
2
/371.9 +(220-149.7)
2
/149.7 = 130.3.
_
2
-ganawilebis cxrilebidan vpoulobT, rom
_
2
(2 -1)(5 -1),1-0.001
= _
2
4, 0.999
= 18.47.
radgan _
2
4, 0.999
= 18.47 < 130.3 = t
25
, o = 0.001 mniSvnelovnebis doniT ua-
rvyofT H
0
hipoTezas orive midgomisaTvis da davaskvniT, rom mkerdis
kibo da pirveli mSobiarobis asaki mniSvnelovnad dakavSirebuli sidi-
deebia (damoukideblobis SemTxvevaSi) da mkerdis kibos proporciebi
ar aris erTnairi yvela asakobrivi intervalisaTvis (erTgvarovnebis
SemTxvevaSi).
ukanasknel SemTxvevaSi, sainteresoa kidev erTi sakiTxi: mainc
romeli proporciebia mniSvnelovnad gansxvavebuli da romeli ara? an
rogoria proporciebis cvalebadobis tendencia (trendi) erTi asakob-
rivi intervalidan meoreze gadasvlis dros? 12.12 cxrilis bolo
striqonSi miwerili iyo kibos SemTxvevebis procentuli maCveneblebi,
romelic asakobrivi intervalis zrdasTan erTad izrdeba. sworia Tu
ara davaskvnaT, rom Sesabamisi populaciebis parametrebic aseve iqcevi-
an, Tu es SemTxveviT moxda? populaciebis parametrebis trendis aseTi
yofaqcevebis aRmosaCenad SemoaqvT e.w. qulis maCvenebeli S
i
, romelic
warmoadgens i-uri jgufis raime kerZo ricxviT atributs, magaliTad,
jgufis nomers, an jgufis saSualo asaks da a.S. SevadginoT aseTi si-
dideebi:
=
- - - -
=
c
j
j j j
S S O O O O A
1
1 1
) ( ) / ( (sadac
- -
=
= O S O S
c
j
j j
/
1
1
), (12.37)
.
|
\
|
.
|
\
|
=
- -
= =
- - - - - -
O S O S O O O O O B
c
j
j j
c
j
j j
/ ) / 1 ( /
2
1
1
1
2
1 1 1
. (12.38)
mtkicdeba, rom mzardi (an klebadi) trendis ar arsebobis SemT-
xvevaSi T=A
2
/B statistikas aqvs
2
(1)-ganawileba da amitom statisti-
kuri kriteriumi ase yalibdeba:
Tu mocemuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis T = A
2
/B statistik-
is dakvirvebuli t mniSvneloba metia _
2
1,1-o
sidideze, maSin o mniSvne-
lovnebis doniT vaskvniT, rom trendi arsebobs, winaaRmdeg SemTxveva-
Si, amis safuZveli ara gvaqvs. garda amisa, Tu A > 0, maSin proporcie-
bi mzardia (mzardi S qulebiT) da Tu A < 0, maSin proporciebi kleba-
dia (mzardi S qulebiT). Sesabamisi p-mniSvneloba tolia p = P{_
2
1
> t}.
aqac gvWirdeba imis damateba, rom es kriteriumi gamodgeba maSin, roca
5 ) /(
2 1 2 1
> +
- - - -
O O O O .
176
vnaxoT ras mogvcems es kriteriumi Cveni magaliTis SemTxvevaSi.
gamovTvaloT A da B gamosaxulebebis ricxviTi a da b mniSvnelobebi
(12.37) da (12.38) formulebis mixedviT, S
i
= 1,2,3,4,5 qulebis dros:
a=3201+12062+10113+4634+2205
-3220[17421+56382+39043+15554+6265]/13465=567.16,
b=0.2390.761{17421
2
+56382
2
+39043
2
+15554
2
+6265
2
-
-[17421+56382+39043+15554+6265]
2
/13465}= 2493.33
dabolos,
t = a
2
/b = 567.16
2
/2493.33 = 129.01.
_
2
-ganawilebis cxrilebidan vpoulobT, rom
_
2
1,1-0.001
= _
2
1, 0.999
= 10.83.
radgan _
2
1, 0.999
= 10.83 < 129.01 = t, o = 0.001 mniSvnelovnebis doniT ua-
rvyofT H
0
hipoTezas da davaskvniT, rom proporciebSi trendi arseb-
obs da radgan a > 0, sabolood vaskvniT, rom pirveli mSobiarobis as-
akis zrdasTan erTad mkerdis kibos proporcia izrdeba.
12.10. Tanxmobis
2
kriteriumi.
am punqtSi Cven SevexebiT _
2
kriteriumis gamoyenebas kidev erT
mniSvnelovan amocanaSi, romelsac Tanxmobis amocanas uwodeben. imisaT-
vis, rom gavigoT Tu ra Tanxmobazea laparaki gavixsenoT, rom wina
leqciebSi, exeboda isini parametrebis Sefasebis, Tu hipoTezebis Semo-
wmebis amocanebs, Cven yvelgan vuSvebdiT, rom SerCevis Sesabamisi pop-
ulaciis ganawilebis saxe cnobilia. axla Cven gvainteresebs, ramdenad
sworia daSveba vTqvaT, populaciis normalurobis Sesaxeb? eTanxmeba
SerCeva am daSvebas Tu ara? swored am kiTxvebze pasuxis gacemas emsa-
xureba es punqti. sakiTxi rom marTlac mniSvnelovania, cxadia, radgan
Tu Tavidanve gavakeTeT araswori daSveba modelis Sesaxeb, maSin raime
amocanis amoxsnaze laparakic zedmetia mcdari modelis CarCoebSi.
magaliTi 12.11. cxrilSi mocemulia 30-69 wlis 14736 adamianis
diastoluri sisxlis wnevebis rva jgufad dayofili monacemebi, rome-
lTa SerCeviTi saSualo da dispersia tolia
n
x ~80.68,
2
n
s ~144. Cveni
amocanaa SevamowmoT, Tu ramdenad eTanxmeba SerCeviTi mniSvnelobebi
populaciis normalurobas =
n
x da o
2
=
2
n
s parametrebiT. rogor unda
gakeTdes es?
jgufi dakvirvebuli sixSire mosalodneli sixSire
< 50 57 78
> 50, < 60 330 547
> 60, < 70 2132 2127
> 70, < 80 4584 4283
> 80, < 90 4604 4479
177
> 90, < 100 2119 2431
> 100, < 110 659 684
> 110 251 107
sul 14736 14736
cxrilis bolo svetSi mocemulia jgufebis sixSireebi daSveb-
uli modelis mixedviT. es imas niSnavs, rom magaliTad, ricxvi 547 bo-
lo svetis meore striqonSi miRebulia aseTnairad: 547 = n p
2
= 14736
p
2
, sadac p
i
aris modelis Sesabamisi N(80.68, 144) SemTxveviTi sidid-
is i -ur jgufSi moxvedris albaToba, anu p
2
-saTvis
p
2
= P{50 s N(80.68; 144) < 60}= u((60-80.68)/12) - u((50-80.68)/12) =
= u(-1.72) - u(-2.56) ~ 0.0424 0.0053 = 0.0371.
marTlac, Tu gavamravlebT SerCevis moculobas ukanasknel ric-
xvze, miviRebT, 14736 0.0371 ~ 547. analogiurad iangariSeba bolo
svetSi mdgomi danarCeni ricxvebic.
_
2
statistika aigeba wina punqtebis msgavsad. gadaxris sazomad
yvela jgufisaTvis ganvixiloT (O - E)
2
/E sidide da avjamoT isini.
mtkicdeba, rom miRebul sidides, rogorc SemTxveviT sidides, aqvs
2
(g - k - 1)-ganawileba, sadac g aRniSnavs jgufebis raodenobas, xolo
k -- mosalodneli mniSvnelobebis gamosaTvlelad gamoyenebuli Sefase-
buli parametrebis raodenobas. kriteriumi ki sabolood ase yalibd-
eba: Tu dasaxelebuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis
=
=
g
i
i i i
E E O T
1
2
/ ) ( (12.39)
statistikis dakvirvebuli t mniSvneloba metia _
2
g-k-1,1-o
sidideze, maS-
in o mniSvnelovnebis doniT hipoTezas uarvyofT, winaaRmdeg SemTxvev-
aSi, amis safuZveli ara gvaqvs. cxadia, Sesabamisi p-mniSvneloba iTvl-
eba formuliT p =P{_
2
g - k - 1
> t}. SezRudva aqac igivea, rom a) mosalo-
dneli sixSireebidan arcerTi ar unda iyos 1-anze naklebi da b) 5-an-
ze naklebi sididis mosalodnel sixSireTa raodenoba ar unda aRemat-
ebodes maTi saerTo raodenobis mexuTeds, anu g/5-s.
12.11 magaliTSi cxadia, g = 8 da radgan Cven SevafaseT normal-
uri modelis maTematikuri lodinica da dispersiac, amitom k = 2 da
maSasadame, Tavisuflebis xarisxi T statistikisa tolia g - k 1= 8-2-
1 = 5.
2
(5)-ganawilebis cxrilebidan o = 0.001-saTvis vpoulobT, rom
_
2
g - k - 1, 1-o
= _
2
5, 0.999
= 20.52. gamovTvaloT T statistikis dakvirvebuli
ricxviTi mniSvneloba:
t = (57-78)
2
/78+(330-547)
2
/547+(2132-2127)
2
/2127+(4584-283)
2
/4283 + (4604-
-4479)
2
/4479+(2119-2431)
2
/2431+(659-684)
2
/684+(251-107)
2
/107 = 350.2.
178
miRebuli mniSvnelobis Sedareba cxrilis dasaSveb mniSvnelobasTan
gvaZlevs: _
2
5, 0.999
= 20.52 < 350.2 = t da maSasadame, o = 0.001-mniSvnelovn-
ebis doniT, SerCevis modelTan Tanxmobis hipoTezas uarvyofT.
SevniSnoT, rom es meTodi gamodgeba ara mxolod modelis norm-
alurobis Sesamowmeblad, aramed nebismieri sxva modelebisaTvisac. er-
TaderTi gansxvaveba i-ur jgufSi moxvedris, modelis Sesabamisi p
i
albaTobebis gamoTvlis wesSi iqneba.
amocanebi
1. 1985 wels ikvlevdnen kavSirs IUD kontraceptivis xmarebasa
da uSvilobas Soris da aRmoCnda, rom 283 uSvilodan 89 garkveuli
drois ganmavlobaSi xmarobda am kontraceptivs, xolo sakontrolo
jgufis 3833 qalidan mas xmarobda 640 qali.
1.1. normaluri aproqsimaciis saSualebiT gaarkvieT aris Tu ara mniSv-
nelovani gansxvaveba kontraceptivis momxmarebelTa or jgufs Soris;
1.2. aageT SeuRlebis dakvirvebuli cxrili;
1.3. gaarkvieT 1.1-Si dasmuli sakiTxi SeuRlebis cxrilis gamoyenebiT;
1.4. SeadareT 1.1-sa da 1.3-Si miRebuli Sedegebi;
1.5. aageT 95%-iani ndobis intervali kontraceptivis momxmareblebisa
da aramomxmareblebis proporciaTa sxvaobisaTvis sakontrolo da Ses-
aswavl jgufebSi;
1.6. gamoTvaleT Sansebis fardoba kontraceptivis momxmareblebs Sor-
is uSvilo da sakontrolo jgufebSi;
1.7. aageT 95%-iani ndobis intervali Sansebis fardobis WeSmariti
mniSvnelobisaTvis 1.6 amocanaSi.
2. davuSvaT 1 amocanaSi ufro dawvrilebiTaa cnobili kontrac-
eptivis moxmarebis xangrZlivobebi TveebSi da es monacemebi warmodgen-
ilia Semdegi cxrilis saxiT:
IUD-is moxmarebis xangrZlivobebi TveebSi
jgufi < 3 > 3, < 18 > 18, < 36 > 36
Sesaswavli 10 23 20 36
sakontrolo 53 200 168 219
2.1. aris Tu ara oTxive jgufis proporciebi erTnairi?
2.2. davuSvaT jgufebs qulebad mivawereT ricxvebi 1, 2, 3, 4. izrdeba
Tu klebulobs proporciebi IUD-is moxmarebis xangrZlivobis zrdasT-
an erTad?
3. undodaT SeedarebinaT A da B tipis wamlebis efeqturoba
Tormetgoja nawlavis wylulze. amisaTvis pacientebi daawyviles asak-
is, sqesisa da klinikuri monacemebis mixedviT. 200 dawyvilebuli mon-
acemidan aRmoCnda, rom 89-ze orive wamalma dadebiTad imoqmeda, 90-ze
179
arcerTma wamalma ar iqonia gavlena, 5 wyvilSi A efeqturi da B ue-
feqto iyo, xolo 16-Si B iyo efeqturi da A uefeqto.
3.1. romeli kriteriumi unda gamoviyenoT wamlebis efeqturobis Sesa-
dareblad?
3.2. gamoTvaleT kriteriumis p-mniSvneloba.
4. Catarda igive gamokvleva, rac 3 amocanaSi mxolod kacebSi
da 100 dawyvilebuli monacemidan aRmoCnda, rom 52-ze orive wamalma
dadebiTad imoqmeda, 35-ze arcerTma wamalma ar iqonia gavlena, 5 wyvi-
lSi A efeqturi da B uefeqto iyo, xolo 16-Si B iyo efeqturi da
A uefeqto.
4.1. ramdeni konkordantuli wyvilia mamakacebSi?
4.2. ramdenia diskordantuli wyvili?
4.3. aageT wamlebis efeqturobis Sesadarebeli kriteriumi da gamoTva-
leT kriteriumis p-mniSvneloba.
l e q c i a 14.
Tavi 13. regresiuli analizi da korelacia.
13.1. Sesavali, ZiriTadi cnebebi.
wina leqciebSi Cven SeviswvleT statistikuri meTodebi SerCev-
iT monacemebze dayrdnobiT ori an meti normaluri populaciis saSua-
loebis Sesadareblad (leqciebi 9 da 10), Semdeg daaxloebiT igive
gavakeTeT kategorizebuli monacemebisaTvis (leqciebi 11 da 12). Cven
davinaxavT, rom es meTodebi Sesabamisad, warmoadgens e.w. wrfivi da
logisturi regresiis meTodebis kerZo SemTxvevebs, sadac kvlav lapa-
rakia kavSirebze or an met SemTxveviT sidides Soris. kerZod, am naw-
ilSi, rogorc wesi, Cven erTis mxriv, gvainteresebs urTierTkavSiri
Sesaswavl sidideebs Soris, xolo meores mxriv, gvainteresebs erT-
erTi (an ramdenime) maTganis damokidebuleba danarCen sidideebze. pirv-
el SemTxvevaSi Cven dagvWirdeba korelaciis Teoria, xolo meoreSi
regresiuli analizi. magaliTad, rodesac Cven vlaparakobT adamianis
simaRlisa da wonis urTierTkavSiris Sesaxeb, maSin saqme gvaqvs kore-
laciuri analizis amocanasTan, xolo roca Cven gvinda simaRlis mixe-
dviT daskvna gavakeToT wonis Sesaxeb, saubaria ukve regresiuli anal-
izis amocanaze.
magaliTi 13.1. sameano saqmeSi atareben dakvirvebas estriolis
(estriol) doneze orsuli qalis Sardis sinjSi, romelsac male mouwevs
mSobiaroba, radgan dadgenilia, rom estriolis done kavSirSia axalS-
obilis wonasTan. es kavSiri SeiZleba gamoisaxos regresiis wrfis sa-
180
SualebiT. Greene ma da Touchstonema Seiswavles aseTi urTierTkavSi-
ri da miiRes Semdegi Sedegebi:
i
estrioli
mg/24sT, x
i
wona g/100,
y
i
i
estrioli
mg/24sT, x
i
wona g/100,
y
i
1 7 25 17 17 32
2 9 25 18 25 32
3 9 25 19 27 34
4 12 27 20 15 34
5 14 27 21 15 34
6 16 27 22 15 35
7 16 24 23 16 35
8 14 30 24 19 34
9 16 30 25 18 35
10 16 31 26 17 36
11 17 30 27 18 37
12 19 31 28 20 38
13 21 30 29 22 40
14 24 28 30 25 39
15 15 32 31 24 43
16 16 32
rogorc vxedavT, x-ebiT aRniSnulia estriolis done, xolo y-
ebiT ki axalSobilis wona. ra Tqma unda, ar SeiZleba saubari raime
funqcionalur kavSirze x da y sidideebs Soris, rogorc es fizikis
universalur sidideebs Soris kavSiris dros xdeba, radgan rogorc
adre SevTanxmdiT, x da y sidideebs (ricxvebs) Cven vuyurebT, rogorc
X da Y SemTxveviTi sidideebis realizaciebs, romelTa Soris kavSir-
ze laparaki SeiZleba mxolod stoqasturi (albaTuri) azriT. amitom
regresiul analizSi ixilaven Y SemTxveviTi sididis pirobiT saSua-
lo yofaqcevas, im pirobiT, rom ganxorcielda {X = x} xdomiloba, anu
ixilaven E(Y |X = x) pirobiT maTematikur lodins, rogorc x cladis
funqcias
y = r(x) E(Y | X = x). (13.1)
am funqcias uwodeben swored, regresiis funqcias (wirs) Y SemTxvevi-
Ti sididisa X SemTxveviTi sididiT. magaliTad, Cven SeiZleba gvainte-
resebdes, rogoria 175 sm simaRlis adamianebis saSualo wona, an piri-
qiT, saSualod ra simaRlisa arian 80 kg wonis mqone adamianebi? rog-
orc vxedavT, (13.1)-Si garkvuli azriT, laparakia Y SemTxveviTi sidi-
dis prognozirebaze X SemTxveviTi sididiT. amdenad, X SemTxveviTi si-
dides (an mis Sesabamis x cvlads) damoukidebel sidides, xolo Y Se-
mTxveviTi sidides (an mis Sesabamis y cvlads) damokidebul sidides,
(gamoZaxils, an prognozs) uwodeben.
radgan Cven araferi gviTqvams X da Y SemTxveviTi sidideebis
erTobliv ganawilebaze (da es tipiurad ase iqneba praqtikaSi), stati-
181
stikaSi da kerZod, regresiul analizSi akeTeben daSvebas regresiis
r(x) funqciis saxeze (magaliTad, daSvebas misi wrfivobis, an eqsponen-
cialurobis Sesaxeb da a.S.). es daSvebebi anu e.w. regresiuli modele-
bi, rogorc wesi, Seicavs parametrebis garkveul raodenobas da maSin
regresiuli analizis amocanaa parametrebis SerCevis xarjze monaceme-
bis Sesaferisi modelis morgeba.
am nawilSi Cven upiratesad saubari gveqneba Semdeg wrfiv regr-
esiul modelze:
y = r(x) = a + bx, (13.2)
sadac a da b modelis parametrebia.
imisaTvis, rom sworad SeirCes regresiuli modeli, SerCeviT
monacemebs warmoadgenen sibrtyeze grafikulad, rasac gafantulobis
diagramas uwodeben. mis asagebad saWiroa dakvirvebuli ricxviTi wyvi-
lebi (x
1
,y
1
), (x
2
,y
2
), , (x
n
,y
n
) davitanoT sakoordinato xOy sibrtyeze.
Cveni magaliTisaTvis gafantulobis diagrama aseTia:
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
estrioli
w
o
n
a
rogorc vxedavT, wertilebi marTlac mimofantulia sibrtye-
ze. regresiis wrfis agebamde (a da b koeficientebis gansazRvramde),
SevniSnoT, rom y = a + bx Tanadoba zustad albaT ar Sesruldeba yve-
la monacemisaTvis, anu y
i
= a + bx
i
toloba ar aris samarTliani yove-
li i-saTvis da maSasadame, damoukidebeli sididis yovel mocemul x
i
mniSvnelobas (esteriolis dones Cveni magaliTisaTvis), Tan axlavs
garkveuli e
i
Secdoma (naSTi) y
i
-saTvis, romelic ase SeiZleba gamoisa-
xos:
e
i
= y
i
(a + bx
i
). (13.3)
am Secdomis arseboba Cvens magaliTSi SeiZleba aixsnas axalSob-
ilTa wonebis variaciiT dedebis estriolis doneebis tolobisas. ami-
tom sruli wrfivi regresiuli modeli ase gamoiyureba:
182
Y = a + bX + E, (13.4)
sadac e-s Sesabamisi E SemTxveviTi sididisaTvis Cven vuSvebT, rom is
normaluradaa ganawilebuli saSualoTi 0 da dispersiiT o
2
.
13.2. umcires kvadratTa meTodi.
davubrundeT (x
1
,y
1
), (x
2
,y
2
), , (x
n
,y
n
) dakvirvebebis saSualebiT
regresiis wrfis a da b koeficientebis (parametrebis) gansazRvris sa-
kiTxs. zogad meTodologias, romlis saSualebiTac akeTeben amas, umc-
ires kvadratTa meTodi hqvia, romlis arsic SeiZleba Semdegnairad av-
xsnaT: radgan gafantulobis diagramaze SeiniSneba (x
1
,y
1
), (x
2
,y
2
), ,
(x
n
,y
n
) dakvirvebebis wrfivad dalagebis tendencia, amitom Cveni amoca-
naa iseTi wrfis ageba, romelic axlos gaivlis dakvirvebis yvela
wertilTan, an ufro zustad, yvela wertilis jamuri daSoreba (Oy
RerZis gaswvriv) am wrfidan iqneba minimaluri. magram es daSoreba i-
uri wertilisaTvis gamoisaxeba swored (13.3)-iT gansazRvruli e
i
-uri
Secdomis absoluturi sididiT: | e
i
| = | y
i
(a + bx
i
)|. maSasadame, Cveni
amocanaa movZebnoT iseTi a da b koeficientebi, rom minimaluri iyos

= =
+ =
n
i
i i
n
i
i
bx a y e b a SAE
1 1
| ) ( | | | ) , ( gamosaxulebis mniSvneloba, magram
rogorc adre dispersiis gansazRvrisas, moxerxebulia visaubroT ara
Secdomebis absoluturi sidideebis, aramed maTi kvadratebis jamze da
ganvixiloT aseTi (ori cvladis funqciis) minimizaciis sakiTxi:
,

= =
+ =
n
i
i i
n
i
i
bx a y e b a SSE
1
2
1
2
) ( ) , ( . (13.5)
ori cvladis funqciis eqstremumis pirobebidan gamodis, rom
(13.5) gamosaxuleba minimums aRwevs a da b parametrebis iseT a
~
da b
~
mniSvnelobebisaTvis, romelTaTvisac sruldeba pirobebi: b
~
= L
xy
/ L
xx
da
n xx xy n n n
x L L y x b y a = = ) / (
~
~
, sadac
n
y da
n
x warmoadgens Sesaba-
misad, y-ebisa da x-ebis SerCeviT saSualoebs da
=
=
n
i
n i n i xy
y y x x L
1
) ( ) ( , (13.6)

= =
= =
n
i
n i
n
i
n i n i xx
x x x x x x L
1
2
1
) ( ) ( ) ( . (13.7)
sabolood, Tu a da b parametrebis a
~
da b
~
mniSvnelobebs CavsvamT
regresiis wrfis (13.2) gantolebaSi, miviRebT:
y -
n
y = (L
xy
/ L
xx
)(x -
n
x ). (13.8)
davubrundeT Cvens magaliTs da vnaxoT, rogor saxes miiRebs
regresiis wrfis gantoleba. am SemTxvevaSi:
183
n
y = (1/31)(25 + 25 + 25 + 27 ++ 40 + 39 + 43) = 992/31 = 32;
n
x = (1/31)(7 + 9 + 9 + 12 ++ 22 + 25 + 24) = 534/31 = 17.23;
L
xy
= (25-32)(7-17.23) + (25-32)(9-17.23) + (25-32)(9-17.23)+
+ (27-32)(12-17.23) ++ (40-32)(22-17.23) + (39-32)(25-17.23) +
+ (43-32)(24-17.23) = 412;
L
xx
= (7-17.23)
2
+ (7-17.23)
2
+(7-17.23)
2
+(7-17.23)
2
++
+(7-17.23)
2
+(7-17.23)
2
+(7-17.23)
2
= 677.42.
amitom (13.8)-is mixedviT, regresiis wrfis gantolebaa
y 32 = (412 /677.42)(x 17.23) = 0.608(x 17.23),
an gamartivebis Semdeg miviRebT: y = 21.525 + 0.608x.
13.3. regresiis wrfis parametrebis aRricxva.
SevniSnoT, rom (13.8)-iT gansazRvruli regresiis wrfe yovelT-
vis gadis wertilze koordinatebiT (
n
x ,
n
y ), xolo misi sakuTxo koe-
ficientis mniSvnelSi mdgomi L
xx
sidide warmoadgens (n-1)-jer x-ebis
SerCeviT dispersias, anu L
xx
= (n - 1)
2
n
s . garda amisa, imave koeficient-
is mricxvelSi mdgomi sidide, romelic Cven momavalSic xSirad Segvx-
vdeba, warmoadgens x-ebisa da y-ebis maTi SerCeviTi saSualoebisagan
gadaxrebis namravlebis jams da L
xy
/ (n - 1) SeiZleba gaviazroT, rog-
orc am gadaxrebis SerCeviTi saSualo. am maxasiaTebels x-isa da y-is
(ufro swored, X-isa da Y-is) SerCeviTi kovariaciis koeficients uw-
odeben. misi Sinaarsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom is gviCvenebs saSualod
X da Y ixrebian TavianTi saSualoebidan erTsadaimave, Tu sxvadasxva
mxares. am koeficients ufro dawvrilebiT Cven qvemoT SevexebiT.
rogorc wina punqtSi vTqviT, regresiis wrfe ver gaivlis yve-
la SerCeviT wertilze. magram yoveli x
i
-s regresiis wrfeze Seesaba-
meba wertili, romlis ordinati aRvniSnoT
i
y
~
iT. maSasadame,
i
y
~
a
~
+b
~
x
i
. Cven gvinda yuradReba gavamaxviloT sam sxvadasxvanair sxvaob-
aze, romelic dakavSirebulia y
i
-Tan, anu gamoZaxilis SerCeviT mniSvne-
lobasTan:
n
y -Tan, y
i
-is SerCeviT saSualosTan da x
i
-is Sesabamisi reg-
resiis wrfis wertilis
i
y
~
ordinatTan. es sxvaobebia: y
i
-
n
y ,
i
y
~
-
n
y
da y
i
-
i
y
~
. cxadia, rom maT Soris aseTi kavSiria:
y
i
-
n
y = (
i
y
~
-
n
y ) + (y
i
-
i
y
~
). (13.9)
maSasadame, SerCeviTi mniSvnelobis gadaxra Tavisi saSualodan
warmodgeba ori danarCeni sxvaobis (komponentis) jamis saxiT: pirvels
uwodeben regresiis komponents, xolo meores naSTiT komponents
(wevrs). grafikulad es sidideebi Semdegnairad SegviZlia warmovadgi-
noT:
184
naxazidan Cans, rom Tu SerCeviTi wertili moxvdeba regresiis
wrfeze, maSin y
i
=
i
y
~
, anu y
i
-
i
y
~
= 0 da e.i. naSTiTi wevri 0-is tolia.
sxvanairad rom vTqvaT, kargad morgebuli regresiis wrfis SemTxveva-
Si regresiis komponenti ufro didia naSTiT wevrze da piriqiT, Tu
naSTiTi wevri ufro didia, vidre regresiis komponenti, unda vifiqr-
oT, rom regresiis wrfe cudadaa SerCeuli. magram aq isev laparakia
yovel calkeul wertilze da Cven ki gvinda davaxasiaToT gadaxris
sidideebi yvela wertilisaTvis mTlianobaSi. amitom ganvixiloT (ro-
gorc es gavakeTeT dispersiul analizSi) y
i
-
n
y gadaxrebis kvadrate-
bis jami, anu e.w. sruli (mTeli) kvadratebis jami (Total sum of squar-
es), romelsac Cven TSS simboloTi aRvniSnavT:
TSS =

=

n
i
n i
y y
1
2
) ( . (13.10)
maSin (13.9)-dan dispersiuli analizis SemTxvevis msgavsad, Seg-
viZlia es jami davSaloT or jamad TSS = RSS + ESS , sadac
RSS =

=

n
i
n i
y y
1
2
)
~
( da ESS =

=

n
i
i i
y y
1
2
)
~
( , (13.11)
anu RSS warmoadgens regresiis komponentTa kvadratebis jams (Regress-
ion sum of squares), xolo ESS naSTiT wevrTa kvadratebis jams (Er-
ror (Residual) sum of squares). SevniSnoT, rom es sidideebi maTi agebis
wesidan gamomdinare, igive rols TamaSobs regresiul analizSi, rogo-
rsac jgufTaSorisi BSS da Sidajgufuri WSS variaciebi dispersiul
analizSi.
es sidideebi SeiZleba gamovsaxoT (13.6) da (13.7)-iT ganmarteb-
uli sidideebiT Semdegnairad:
RSS =
xx xy xx xy
L L L b L b /
~ ~
2 2
= = da ESS = TSS - RSS = L
yy
-
xx xy
L L /
2
. (13.12)
185
13.4. Tanxmobis kriteriumebi regresiis wrfisaTvis.
13.4.1. Tanxmobis Fkriteriumi.
dispersiul analizTan zemoaRniSnuli msgavsebidan gamomdinare
Cven SegviZlia avagoT modelisa da monacemebis Tanxmobis kriteriumi.
kerZod, Tu ganvixilavT RSS da ESS sidideebis Sefardebas da aRmoCn-
deba, rom es Sefardeba didia, maSin unda vifiqroT, rom monacemebi
eTanxmeba models, xolo am fardobis SemTxvevaSi, Tanxmoba cudia.
hipoTezaTa Semowmebis amocanis terminebSi es ase gamoiTqmeba: nulova-
ni hipoTezaa, rom H
0
: b = 0, xolo alternativaa H
1
: b = 0, sadac b
aris (13.4) modelSi wrfis sakuTxo koeficienti. kriteriumis asageb-
ad SemovitanoT Semdegi sidideebi, RMS RSS / k da EMS ESS /(n- k-1),
sadac k aRniSnavs damoukidebeli sidideebis raodenobas (Cvens mier
ganxilul SemTxvevaSi, k =1) da ganvixiloT Semdegi statistika:
T = RMS / EMS = [(
xx xy
L L /
2
) / k]/[(L
yy
-
xx xy
L L /
2
)/(n-k -1)]. (13.13)
mtkicdeba, rom H
0
hipoTezis samarTlianobis SemTxvevaSi am statisti-
kas aqvs F(k, n-k-1)-ganawileba da maSasadame, statistikuri kriteriumi
aseTnairad yalibdeba:
Tu dasaxelebuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis T statistikis
dakvirvebuli t mniSvneloba akmayofilebs pirobas t > F
k,n-k-1,1-o
, maSin o
mniSvnelovnebis doniT H
0
hipoTezas uarvyofT, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi
amis safuZveli ara gvaqvs.
kriteriumis Sesabamisi p-mniSvneloba tolia p = P{ F
k , n-k-1
> t}.
kriteriumis gamoyenebis sailustraciod davubrundeT Cvens mag-
aliTs da vnaxoT, ramdenad eTanxmeba monacemebi wrfiv regresiul mo-
dels. amisaTvis gavixsenoT, rom L
xy
= 412, L
xx
= 677.42.
garda amisa, L
yy
= 674 (SeamowmeT!) da amitom (13.12) formuli-
dan gveqneba:
RSS = 412
2
/677.42 = 250.57; TSS = L
yy
= 674; ESS = 674 - 250.57 = 423.43;
RMS = 250.57/1 = 250.57; EMS = 423.23/(31-1-1) = 14.60.
bolos, (13.13) formulidan gvaqvs:
t = 250.57 / 14.60 = 17.16.
F-ganawilebis kvantilebis cxrilidan vpoulobT, rom
F
k,n-k-1,0.999
= F
1, 29, 0.999
= 14.82.
radgan F
1, 29, 0.999
= 14.82 < 17.16 = t, amitom o = 0.001 mniSvnelovne-
bis doniT H
0
hipoTezas uarvyofT da miviRebT alternativas, rom es-
triolis donesa da axalSobilis wonas Soris arsebobs wrfivi kavSi-
ri.
xazi gavusvaT kidev erT sidides (koeficients). Ees aris e.w.
determinaciis koeficienti, romelic aRiniSneba R
2
-iT da ganisazRvre-
186
ba, rogorc regresiis komponentTa kvadratebis jamis fardoba, kvadra-
tebis mTlian jamTan, anu
R
2
= RSS / TSS = ) /(
2
yy xx xy
L L L . (13.14)
am koeficientis azri SeiZleba ase gavigoT: Tu R
2
= 1, maSin
(13.4) modelSi sruli variacia modis damoukidebel X cvladze (sid-
ideze), xolo Tu R
2
= 0, maSin sruli variacia modis SemTxveviT E ko-
mponentze, anu X SemTxveviTi sidide gavlenas ar axdens gamoZaxilze
da maSasadame, rac ufro didia am koeficientis mniSvneloba, Y
SemTxveviTi sididis variacia miT ufroa gansazRvruli X SemTxveviTi
sididiT.
Cveni magaliTis SemTxvevaSi, R
2
= 250.57 / 674 = 0.372 da maSasada-
me, axalSobilTa wonebis variaciis 37.2% modis estriolis doneze.
SevniSnoT, rom roca n didia, EMS = (L
yy
-
xx xy
L L /
2
)/(n-k -1) =
= L
yy
(1-R
2
) /(n-k -1) =
2
y
s (1-R
2
)[(n-1) /(n-k -1)] ~
2
y
s (1-R
2
),
saidanac
1 - R
2
~ EMS /
2
y
s =
2
|x y
s /
2
y
s , (13.15)
sadac
2
|x y
s -iT aRniSnulia Y -is pirobiTi dispersiis saukeTeso Sefa-
seba pirobaSi {X = x}.
maSasadame, (13.15) toloba gveubneba, rom 1-R
2
warmoadgens Y -is
dispersiis im proporcias, romelic SeiZleba aixsnas X -iT.
Cveni magaliTisaTvis
2
|x y
s /
2
y
s ~ 1 - R
2
= 1- 0.372 = 0.628.
13.4.2. Tanxmobis t-kriteriumi.
igive amocanis gadasaWrelad, H
0
: b = 0 hipoTezis Sesamowmeblad
H
1
: b = 0 alternativis winaaRmdeg, iyeneben sxva kriteriumsac, rome-
lic damyarebulia (13.6)-iTa da (13.7)-iT gansazRvrul b
~
= L
xy
/ L
xx
ko-
eficientze, romelsac Tu ganvixilavT rogorc SemTxveviT sidides,
hipoTezis samarTlianobisas aqvs 0-is toli saSualo da o
2
/ L
xx
-is
toli dispersia. radgan sazogadod, o
2
ucnobia, mas afaseben sididiT
2
|x y
s . ganvixiloT statistika:
T = b
~
/ (
2
|x y
s /L
xx
)
1/2
, (13.16)
romelsac mtkicdeba, rom H
0
hipoTezis samarTlianobis dros aqvs
t(n-2)-ganawileba. amitom statistikuri kriteriumi ase yalibdeba:
dakvirvebuli t mniSvneloba akmayofilebs pirobas
-t
n 2 , 1 - o/2
s t s t
n 2 , 1 - o/2
,
187
0
gvaqvs, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, mas uarvyofT. cxadia, rom kriteriumis
Sesabamisi p-mniSvneloba gamoiTvleba Semdegnairad:
p = 2 P{ t
n 2
< t}, roca t < 0 da p = 2 P{ t
n 2
> t}, roca t > 0.
kriteriumis gamoyenebis sailustraciod davubrundeT 13.1 maga-
liTs da vnaxoT, xom ar iZleva es kriteriumi sxva Sedegs, vidre uk-
ve ganxiluli F-kriteriumi.
rogorc gvaxsovs, b
~
= L
xy
/ L
xx
= 0.608. amitom T statistikis dak-
virvebuli t mniSvneloba tolia
t = b
~
/ (
2
|x y
s /L
xx
)
1/2
= 0.608/(14.60/677.42)
1/2
= 0.608/0.147 = 4.14.
t-ganawilebis kvantilebis cxrilidan vpoulobT, rom t
29, 0.9995
=
3.659. radgan t
2 9, 0.9995
= 3.659 < 4.14 = t, amitom es kriteriumic uary-
ofs H
0
hipoTezas. unda iTqvas, rom es orive kriteriumi sazogadod-
ac erTnair Sedegebs iZleva, anu isini eqvivalenturia, magram ukanaskn-
eli maTgani, xSirad gamoiyeneba ndobis intervalis agebisas b paramet-
risaTvis. am sakiTxs Cven swored momdevno punqtSi ganvixilavT.
13.5. intervaluri Sefasebebi wrfivi regresiisaTvis.
13.5.1. ndobis intervalebi regresiis parametrebisaTvis.
regresiis wrfis parametrebis standartuli Secdomebi da maTi
intervaluri Sefasebebi xSirad gamoiyeneba imisaTvis, rom davadginoT
aris Tu ara Sedarebadi Cvens mier miRebuli Sedegebi sxva msgavsi gam-
okvlevebiT miRebul SedegebTan.
magaliTi 13.2. davuSvaT, adrindeli dakvirvebebidan 500 orsul
qalze cnobilia, rom regresiis wrfis gantolebas aqvs Semdegi saxe:
y = 25.04 + 0.52x. ra SeiZleba iTqvas Cveni Sedegebis Sesaxeb 13.1 maga-
liTSi?
rogorc wina punqtSi vnaxeT, b
~
parametris standartuli Sec-
doma gamoiTvleboda formuliT
xx x y
L s b se / )
~
(
2
|
. Tu kvlav gavixsen-
ebT (13.6)-sa da (13.7) formulebs, a
~
parametris standartuli Secdo-
misaTvis miviRebT:
) / / 1 ( )
~
(
2 2
| xx n x y
L x n s a se + . (13.17)
aseve wina punqtidan Cven viciT, rom T = b
~
/ (
2
|x y
s /L
xx
)
1/2
statist-
ikas H
0
hipoTezis samarTlianobis dros hqonda t(n-2)-ganawileba. amit-
om 100(1-o)%-ian ndobis intervalebs b da a parametrebisaTvis Sesab-
amisad aqvs Semdegi saxe:
b
~
t
n 2 , 1- o/2
xx x y
L s /
2
|
da a
~
t
n 2 , 1- o/2
) / / 1 (
2 2
| xx n x y
L x n s + . (13.18)
188
mivubrundeT 13.2 magaliTs da SevecadoT pasuxi gavceT dasmul
SekiTxvas. amisaTvis vnaxoT rogori saxe aqvs 95%-ian ndobis interva-
lebs b da a parametrebisaTvis 13.1 magaliTSi. rogorc gvaxsovs,
xx x y
L s /
2
|
= 0.147 da t -ganawilebis kvantilebis crilidan t
29, 0.975
=
2.045. amitom (13.18)-dan gveqneba:
b
~
t
n 2 , 1- o/2
xx x y
L s /
2
|
= 0.608 2.0450.147 = (0.308; 0.908).
analogiurad, ) / / 1 (
2 2
| xx n x y
L x n s + =[14.60(1/31+17.23
2
/677.42)]
1/2
= 2.62
da
a
~
t
n 2 , 1- o/2
) / / 1 (
2 2
| xx n x y
L x n s + = 21.525 2.0452.62 = (16.16, 26.88).
rogorc vxedavT, intervalebi sakmarisad farTea, rac cxadia,
gamowveulia SerCevis moculobis simciriT. miuxedavad amisa, b da a
parametrebis mniSvnelobebi vardeba Cvens mier agebul ndobis interva-
lebSi da SegviZlia davaskvnaT, rom magaliT 13.1-Si agebuli regresiis
gantoleba Sedarebadia magaliT 13.2-Si moyvanil SedegTan.
13.5.2. ndobis intervalebi regresiis prognozebisaTvis.
rogorc adrec aRvniSneT, regresiis wrfis mniSvnelovan gamoye-
nebiT mxares warmoadgens misi gamoyeneba prognozebis misaRebad. axla
Cven gvainteresebs sakiTxi, Tu ramdenad kargia miRebuli prognoze-
bi? 13.1 magaliTis terminebSi, Tu ganvixilavT estriolis fiqsirebul
x donian yvela orsul qals, maSin regresiis wrfidan miRebuli axal-
Sobilis wonis prognozia y
~
= a
~
+b
~
x da maSasadame, Cveni SekiTxva as-
eTia: ramdenad kargia axalSobilis wonis es prognozi? am kiTxvaze
pasuxi damokidebulia imaze, Tu ras vaprognozebT Cven: estriolis x
doniani konkretuli orsuli qalis, Tu estriolis x doniani yvela
orsuli qalis axalSobilis wonas. amis mixedviT, pirvel SemTxvevaSi,
Y SemTxveviTi sidide ganawilebulia normalurad, saSualoTi y
~
da
Sefasebis standartuli SecdomiT,
se
1
= ) / ) ( / 1 1 (
2 2
| xx n x y
L x x n s + + , (13.19)
xolo Sesabamis 100(1-o)%-ian ndobis intervals aqvs Semdegi saxe:
y
~
t
n 2 , 1- o/2
) / ) ( / 1 1 (
2 2
| xx n x y
L x x n s + + . (13.20)
meore SemTxvevaSic, Y SemTxveviTi sididis saSualos saukeTeso
Sefasebaa y
~
da misi standartuli Secdoma moicema formuliT
se
2
= ) / ) ( / 1 (
2 2
| xx n x y
L x x n s + , (13.21)
xolo Sesabamis 100(1-o)%-ian ndobis intervals aqvs Semdegi saxe:
189
y
~
t
n 2 , 1- o/2
) / ) ( / 1 (
2 2
| xx n x y
L x x n s + . (13.22)
Tu davakvirdebiT (13.19)-(13.22) formulebs, davinaxavT, rom
orive SemTxvevaSi standartuli Secdoma arsebiTadaa damokidebuli im-
aze, Tu ramdenad axlosaa saintereso x sidide dakvirvebaTa x
i
SerCev-
iT saSualosTan: rac ufro axlosaa es sidideebi erTmaneTTan, miT
ufro mcirea Secdomebi da maSasadame, miT ufro viwroa ndobis inte-
rvalebi da piriqiT, rac ufro didia am sidideebs Soris daSoreba,
miT ufro didia Secdomebi da maSasadame, miT ufro farTea ndobis in-
tervalebi. garda amisa, SevniSnoT, rom meore SemTxvevaSi ndobis inte-
rvali ufro viwroa, vidre pirvelSi, rac gamowveulia imave efeqtiT,
rom SemTxveviTi sididis SerCeviTi saSualos standartuli Secdoma
miT ufro pataraa, rac ufro meti SerCeviTi monacemiT xdeba misi Se-
faseba.
am formulebis gamoyenebis sailustraciod ganvixiloT 13.1 mag-
aliTis Semdegi modifikaciebi.
magaliTi 13.3. davuSvaT, Cven gvainteresebs aris Tu ara normaSi
vinme, elizabet jonsonis axalSobilis wona, 1850 grami, Tu misi est-
riolis done mSobiarobis win Seadgenda 10 mg/24sT-s?
magaliTi 13.4. avagoT 95%-iani ndobis intervali axalSobilis
wonis saSualosaTvis, im dedebisaTvis, romelTa estriolis done mSo-
biarobis win Seadgenda 10 mg/24sT-s.
magaliTi 13.3-is amoxsna. gavixsenoT regresiis wrfis gantole-
ba 13.1 magaliTidan: y = 21.525 + 0.608x da vnaxoT, rogoria axalSobi-
lis wonis mniSvneloba x = 10-saTvis:
y = 21.525 + 0.608 10 = 21.525 + 6.08 = 27. 605 = 2760(grami).
gamovTvaloT Sesabamisi standartuli Secdoma. gavixsenoT, rom
n
x = 17.23, L
xx
= 677.42 da
2
|x y
s = 14.60. amitom (13.19) formulidan mivi-
RebT: se
1
= ) / ) ( / 1 1 (
2 2
| xx n x y
L x x n s + + =
= [14.60(1+1/31+(10-17.23)
2
/677.42)]
1/2
= 4.025.
Sesabamisad, 95%-ian ndobis intervals axalSobilis saSualo
wonisaTvis aqvs Semdegi saxe:
27.6052.0454.025=27.6058.231=(19.434, 35.836)=(1943g, 3583g).
radgan magaliTSi aRebuli 1850 grami ar vardeba miRebul inte-
rvalSi, davaskvniT, rom elizabet jonsonis axalSobilis wona ar Se-
esabameba normas.
190
magaliTi 13.4-is amoxsna. kvlav, radgan
n
x = 17.23, L
xx
= 677.42
da
2
|x y
s = 14.60 da y = 21.525 + 0.608 10 = 27. 605 = 2760(grami),
amitom (13.21) formuliT gamovTvaloT standartuli Secdoma x = 10-
saTvis. gvaqvs: se
2
= ) / ) ( / 1 (
2 2
| xx n x y
L x x n s + =
= [14.60(1/31+(10-17.23)
2
/677.42)]
1/2
= 1.264.
Sesabamisad, 95%-ian ndobis intervals axalSobilis saSualo
wonisaTvis aqvs Semdegi saxe:
27.6052.0451.264=27.6052.585=(25.02, 30.190)=(2502g, 3019g).
13.6. naSTTa analizi martivi wrfivi regresiisaTvis.
gavixsenoT (13.4) sruli wrfivi regresiuli modeli. rogorc
gvaxsovs, Y = a + bX + E, sadac E SemTxveviTi sidide, romelsac Cven
naSTi vuwodeT, normalurad iyo ganawilebuli saSualoTi 0 da dispe-
rsiiT o
2
. Sesabamisi i-uri naSTis SerCeviTi mniSvneloba ganisazRvreb-
oda rogorc sxvaoba gamoZaxilis SerCeviT mniSvnelobasa da regresiis
wrfis mniSvnelobas Soris x
i
wertilSi, anu e
i
= y
i
-
i
y
~
, sadac
i
y
~
=a
~
+b
~
x
i
. am nawilSi gansaxilveli sakiTxi gulisxmobs swored e
i
, i
=1,2,,n, naSTebis daxasiaTebas, anu imas Tu ramdenad eTanxmeba es na-
STebi modelis daSvebebs. es daSvebebi ki aseTia:
1) yoveli mocemuli x-saTvis Y SemTxveviTi sididis pirobiTi
maTematikuri lodini pirobaSi {X = x} xdomiloba, warmoadgens x-is
wrfiv funqcias, anu E(Y | X = x) = a + bx;
2) yoveli mocemuli x-saTvis Y SemTxveviTi sididis pirobiTi
ganawileba pirobaSi {X = x} xdomiloba, normaluria saSualoTi
a + bx da dispersiiT o
2
, romelic erTidaigivea yvela x-saTvis;
3) E
i
, i =1,2,,n, naSTebi damoukidebelia.
rogorc wesi, am daSvebebis samarTlianobis Sesamowmeblad iyen-
eben sxvadasxva grafikul warmodgenebs. erT-erTi aseTi grafikuli xe-
rxi mdgomareobs grafikze (
i
y
~
, e
i
/ se(e
i
)) wertilebis dataniT, sadac
se(e
i
) warmoadgens naSTis standartul Secdomas, romelic ase gamoiT-
vleba:
se(e
i
) = ) / ) ( / 1 1 (
2 2
| xx n x y
L x x n s . (13.23)
maSin grafikuli kriteriumi mdgomareobs SemdegSi: Tu wertil-
Ta miRebuli erToblioba dalagdeba Tanabrad Ox RerZis gaswvriv (ze-
moT da qvemoT), vTvliT, rom yvela daSveba met-naklebad sruldeba,
191
winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, unda vifiqroT, rom dairRva romeliRac piro-
ba. leqciis bolos movyavs aseTi diagramis saxe 13.1 magaliTisaTvis:
rogorc vxedavT, (
i
y
~
, e
i
/ se(e
i
)) wertilebi y = 0 wrfis gaswvriv
dalagda. maSasadame, Cven vTvliT, rom Sesrulebulia wrfivi regresi-
uli modelis yvela piroba.
13.7. korelaciis koeficienti.
13.7.1. erTamokrefiani kriteriumebi korelaciis
koeficientisaTvis.
aqamde Cven vixilavdiT regresiuli analizis amocanebs, sadac
gvainteresebda damokidebuli cvladis prognozirebis sakiTxi erTi an
ramdenime damoukidebeli cvladis saSualebiT. magram xSirad gvainter-
esebs ara romelime sididis prognozireba, aramed ubralod, aris Tu
ara kavSiri dakvirvebad sidideebs Soris. aseT SemTxvevebSi iyeneben
korelaciis koeficients or sidides Soris, romelic r-iT aRiniSneba
da me-13 leqciaSi Semotanili sidideebis saSualebiT ase gansazRvreba:
r =
y x
xy
yy xx
xy
s s
n L
L L
L
) 1 /(
. (13.24)
sadac s
x
da s
y
warmoadgens Sesabamisad x-ebisa da y-ebis SerCeviT sta-
ndartul gadaxrebs da (13.7)-iT ganmartebuli L
xy
sidide warmoadgens
192
x-ebisa da y-ebis Sereul centralur SerCeviT moments da L
xy
/(n-1) si-
dides x-ebisa da y-ebis SerCeviT kovariaciis koeficients uwodeben.
gavixsenoT (13.14) Tanafardobidan determinaciis koeficientis
gansazRvreba. rogorc gvaxsovs, R
2
= ) /(
2
yy xx xy
L L L da maSasadame,
(13.24) tolobidan davaskvniT, rom R
2
= r
2
, anu korelaciis koeficien-
tis kvadrati emTxveva determinaciis koeficients. amitom erTi Sexed-
viT, korelaciis koeficientis SemotanaSi axali araferi unda iyos,
magram determinaciis koeficientisagan gansxvavebiT misi niSani gviCv-
enebs, Tu rogoria kavSiri or sidides Soris, dadebiTi Tu uaryofiTi
anu is gviCvenebs X da Y SemTxveviTi sidideebi dadebiTadaa korelir-
ebuli Tu uaryofiTad. dadebiTad korelirebuloba niSnavs imas, rom
X-is mier didi da patara mniSvnelobebis miReba iwvevs Y-is Sesabamisi
mniSvnelobebis miRebas. piriqiT, uaryofiTad korelirebuloba ki imas
niSnavs, rom X-is did mniSvnelobebs mohyveba Y-is patara mniSvnelobe-
bi, xolo pataras didi.
garda amisa, Tu | r | ~ 1, niSnavs Zlier (TiTqmis wrfiv) kavSirs
Sesabamis sidideebs Soris, xolo | r | ~ 0, niSnavs sakmarisad sust kav-
Sirs mocemul sidideebs Soris.
gavixsenoT axalSobilTa wonebisa da estriolis donis Tanado-
bis 13.1 magaliTi. rogorc gvaxsovs, L
xy
= 412, L
xx
= 677.42, L
yy
= 674. am-
itom (13.24) formulidan miviRebT, rom r = 412/(677.42674)
1/2
= 0.61.
sainteresoa agreTve kavSiri korelaciisa da regresiis koefic-
ientebs Soris martiv wrfiv regresiis modelSi. rogorc gvaxsovs,
b
~
= L
xy
/ L
xx
. martivi gardaqmnebiT davaskvniT, rom
r = b
~
(s
y
/s
x
) (13.25)
da kvlav TiTqos regresiis koeficientisaTvis moxda mxolod skalis,
masStabis Secvla. magram Tu kargad davakvirdebiT, aRmovaCenT, rom b
~
-
sagan gansxvavebiT korelaciis koeficients ar gaaCnia ganzomileba, anu
is ganyenebuli ricxvia. es kargad Cans isev 13.1 magaliTidan. am magal-
iTSi b
~
koeficients aqvs aseTi ganzomileba (grami/100)/(mg/24sT), rac
cota ar iyos gaugebari erTeulia TavisTavad. maSin, roca korelaciis
koeficients es nakli ar gaaCnia.
imisaTvis, rom vawarmooT statistikuri daskvnebi korelaciis
SerCeviTi koeficientis saSualebiT, saWiroa msgavsi cneba gvqondes
populaciebisaTvisac, anu X da Y SemTxveviTi sidideebisaTvisac.
(13.24) formula warmoadgens SerCeviT analogs Semdegi gamosaxulebi-
saTvis
Y X
EY Y EX X E
o o

=
) ( ) (
, (13.26)
193
romelsac X da Y SemTxveviTi sidideebis korelaciis koeficienti ew-
odeba.
korelaciuri analizis erT-erTi ZiriTadi amocana imaSi mdgoma-
reobs, rom monacemebze dayrdnobiT (anu X da Y SemTxveviTi sidideeb-
is realizebul dakvirvebebze dayrdnobiT) Semowmdes nulovani hipoT-
eza H
0
: = 0 alternativis winaaRmdeg, rom H
1
: = 0. am amocanis gad-
asawyvetad SemoaqvT statistika
2
1
2
r
n
r T
= , (13.27)
romelsac H
0
hipoTezis samarTlianobis SemTxvevaSi aqvs t(n-2)-ganawi-
leba. amitom statistikuri kriteriumi ase yalibdeba:
-t
n-2, 1-o/2
s t s t
n-2, 1-o/2
,
0
gvaqvs, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, mas uarvyofT. kriteriumis Sesabamisi
p-mniSvneloba gamoiTvleba Semdegnairad:
p = 2 P{ t
n-2
s t}, roca t s 0 da p = 2 P{ t
n-2
> t}, roca t > 0.
cxadia, aq vgulisxmobT, rom X da Y SemTxveviTi sidideebi gan-
awilebulia normalurad.
magaliTi 13.5. gulsisxlZarRvTa daavadebis etiologiis erT-
erT mniSvnelovan riskis faqtorad iTvleba SC (Serum Cholesterol)-is
done. bevri gamokvleva mieZRvna garemo faqtor.ebis zemoqmedebas SC-is
donis awevaze. am mizniT gazomes 100 genetikurad daukavSirebuli
col-qmris SC-is doneebi da aRmoCnda, rom SerCeviTi korelaciis
koeficienti tolia r = 0.25. gvaqvs Tu ara safuZveli vamtkicoT, rom
= 0?
amoxsna. T statistikis dakvirvebuli t mniSvneloba (13.27)-Si
tolia t = 0.25[98/(1-0.25
2
)]
1/2
= 2.56. tganawilebis cxrilebSi ver vip-
oviT 98-is Sesabamis kvantilebs. amitom vpoulobT t
60, 0.99
= 2.39, t
60, 0.995
= 2.66 da t
120, 0.99
= 2.358, t
120, 0.995
= 2.617, saidanac davaskvniT, rom radg-
an 60 < 98 < 120, amitom 0.005 < p/2 < 0.01, anu 0.01 < p < 0.02. sabolo-
od, H
0
hipoTezas uarvyofT da miviRebT alternativas, rom = 0 da
maSasadame, miuxedavad genetikuri kavSirisa, col-qmris qolesterinis
doneebs Soris arsebobs damokidebuleba, rac SeiZleba aixsnas maTi
erTnairi cxovrebis wesiT.
zogjer saWiroa Semowmdes ara H
0
: = 0, aramed H
0
: =
0
hip-
oTeza,
0
-is garkveuli dasaxelebuli mniSvnelobisaTvis, Sesabamisi
alternativis, H
1
: =
0
dros. garkveuli mizezebis gamo, wina amoca-
194
nis gadasaWrelad gamoyenebuli t-kriteriumi aq aRar gamodgeba. am miz-
niT fiSerma SemoiRo korelaciis koeficientis e.w. z-gardaqmna
z = (1/2)(ln(1+ r) - ln(1- r)), (13.28)
romelsac H
0
: =
0
hipoTezis samarTlianobis dros aqvs normaluri
ganawileba, saSualoTi z
0
= (1/2)(ln(1+
0
) - ln(1-
0
)) da dispersiiT
1/(n - 3).
Sesabamisad, Tu kriteriumis statistikad aviRebT Semdeg stat-
istikas
T = 3 ) (
0
n z z , (13.29)
maSin cxadia, mas eqneba standartuli normaluri ganawileba da Sesab-
amisi statistikuri kriteriumi ase Camoyalibdeba:
-z
1-o/2
s t s z
1-o/2
,
0
p = 2 u(t), roca t s 0 da p = 2 (1- u(t)), roca t > 0.
cxadia, amave T statistikaze dayrdnobiT da im faqtidan, rom
is standartulad normaluradaa ganawilebuli, Cven SegviZlia avagoT
ndobis intervali ucnobi z
0
-saTvis da maSasadame,
0
-savisac. marTlac,
dasaxelebuli o mniSvnelovnebis donisaTvis 1-o ndobis albaTobis
mqone anu 100(1-o)%-ian ndobis intervals z
0
-saTvis aqvs Semdegi saxe:
[z z
1-o/2
3 n , z + z
1-o/2
3 n ]. (13.30)
rac Seexeba 100(1-o)%-ian ndobis intervals
0
-saTvis, mas ad-
vilad miviRebT (13.30)-dan z
0
= (1/2)(ln(1+
0
) - ln(1-
0
)) Tanafardobis
gaTvaliswinebiT. cxadia, rom
0
=
1
1
0
0
2
2
+
z
z
e
e
da (13.30)-is sazRvrebis Ca-
smiT, 100(1-o)%-ian ndobis intervals
0
-saTvis eqneba Semdegi saxe:
[
1
1
1
1
2
2
+
z
z
e
e
,
1
1
2
2
2
2
+
z
z
e
e
], (13.31)
sadac z
1
= z z
1-o/2
3 n da z
2
= z + z
1-o/2
3 n . (13.32)
magaliTi 13.6. davuSvaT, 100 mamisa (x) da pirveli biWis (y)
wonebs Soris SerCeviTi korelaciis koeficienti gamovida 0.38-is to-
li. Cveni amocanaa ganvsazRvroT: 1) aris Tu ara samarTliani hipoTeza
imis Sesaxeb, rom
0
= 0.5, rac mosalodnelia genetikuri kavSiris ga-
mo da 2) avagoT 95%-iani ndobis intervali WeSmariti -saTvis.
amoxsna. gamovTvaloT pirvel rigSi z-gardaqmnis dakvirvebuli
da hipoTeturi mniSvnelobebi:
195
z = (1/2)(ln(1+ ) - ln(1- )) = (1/2)(ln(1+ 0.38) - ln(1- 0.38)) =
= (1/2)ln(2.26) ~ 0.4,
z
0
= (1/2)(ln(1+
0
) - ln(1-
0
)) = (1/2)(ln(1+ 0.5) - ln(1- 0.5)) =
= (1/2)ln(3) ~ 0.549.
gamovTvaloT axla T statistikis dakvirvebuli t mniSvneloba:
t = 3 ) (
0
n z z = (0.4 0.549)97
1/2
~ -1.47.
maSin kriteriumis p-mniSvneloba tolia
p = 2 u(t) = 2 u(-1.47) = 2 (1- u(1.47)) = 0.142,
saidanac, vinaidan p > 0.05, davaskvniT, rom Sedegi statistikurad umn-
iSvneloa da maSasadame, H
0
: = 0.5 hipoTezis uaryofis safuZveli ara
gvaqvs.
gamovTvaloT z
1
da z
2
(13.32) Tanafaardobebidan. gvaqvs:
z
1
= z z
1-o/2
3 n = z z
0.975
3 n = 0.4 1.9697
1/2
~ 0.201,
z
2
= z + z
1-o/2
3 n = z + z
0.975
3 n = 0.4 + 1.9697
1/2
~ 0.599.
amitom (13.47)-dan miviRebT, rom
1
1
1
1
2
2
+
z
z
e
e
~ 0.198 da
1
1
2
2
2
2
+
z
z
e
e
~ 0.536.
Sesabamisad, 95%-iani ndobis intervali WeSmariti -saTvis aris
[0.198, 0.536].
13.7.2. oramokrefiani kriteriumebi korelaciis
koeficientisaTvis.
fiSeris gardaqmna SeiZleba ganzogadebul iqnas oramokrefiani
amocanebisaTvis. kerZod, am punqtSi Cven gvainteresebs korelaciis ko-
eficientebis tolobis sakiTxi SerCevaTa ori wyvilisaTvis. sailust-
raciod ganvixiloT Semdegi
magaliTi 13.7. ainteresebdaT aris Tu ara genetikuri kavSiri
sisxlis wnevis sidideebs Soris bavSvebsa da maT dedebs Soris. amisa-
Tvis akvirdebodnen sisxlis wnevebis sidideebs dedebsa da bavSvebSi
bavSvebis ori sxvadasxva kategoriisaTvis: maTTvis vinc namdvil deda-
sTan izrdeba da maTTvis, vinc izrdeba dedinacvalTan. aRmoCnda, rom
pirveli kategoriis 1000 monacemisaTvis korelaciis koeficientis
mniSvneloba iyo 0.35, xolo meore kategoriis 100 monacemisaTvis ki
0.06. aris Tu am monacemebis mixedviT genetikuri kavSiri namdvil de-
dasa da bavSvs Soris?
imisaTvis, rom pasuxi gaeces am da msgavs SekiTxvebs, davsvaT
amocana zogad statistikur formaSi. maSasadame, Cveni amocanaa nulov-
ani da alternatiuli hipoTezis garCevis sakiTxi, sadac isini ase
yalibdeba: H
0
:
1
=
2
, H
1
:
1
=
2
. am amocanis gadasawyvetad
ixilaven Sesabamisi korelaciis SerCeviTi koeficientebis zgardaqmne-
bis sxvaobas, romlisaTvisac mtkicdeba, rom H
0
:
1
=
2
hipoTezis
samarTlianobis SemTxvevaSi,
196
T =
) 3 /( 1 ) 3 /( 1
2 1
2 1
+

n n
z z
(13.33)
statistikas aqvs standartuli normaluri ganawileba. amitom statis-
tikuri kriteriumi ase yalibdeba:
-z
1-o/2
s t s z
1-o/2
,
0
p = 2 u(t), roca t s 0 da p = 2 (1- u(t)), roca t > 0.
cxadia, igulisxmeba, rom Tavdapirveli populaciebi normalura-
daa ganawilebuli.
davubrundeT 13.7 magaliTs da vnaxoT ra pasuxs mogvcems Semo-
tanili kriteriumi. mocemulobis mixedviT, n
1
= 1000, n
2
= 100 da Sesa-
bamisad, r
1
= 0.35, r
2
= 0.06. amitom
z
1
= (1/2)(ln(1+ r
1
) - ln(1- r
1
)) = (1/2)(ln(1+ 0.35) - ln(1- 0.35)) ~ 0.365,
z
2
= (1/2)(ln(1+ r
2
) - ln(1- r
2
)) = (1/2)(ln(1+ 0.06) - ln(1- 0.06)) ~ 0.06
da T statistikis dakvirvebuli t mniSvneloba tolia:
t = (0.365-0.06)/(1/997+1/97)
1/2
~ 2.87.
Sesabamisad, kriteriumis Sesabamisi p-mniSvneloba toli iqneba:
p = 2 (1- u(t)) = p = 2 (1- u(2.87)) = 0.004.
maSasadame, radgan p < 0.01 davaskvniT, rom Sedegi statistikur-
ad mniSvnelovania da H
0
:
1
=
2
hipoTezas uarvyofT o = 0.01 mniSvne-
lovnebis doniT da miviRebT alternativas, rom
1
=
2
da e.i. genet-
ikuri kavSiri namdvili dedisa da Svilis sisxlis wnevebs Soris mar-
Tlac mWidroa.
13.8. kerZo da mravlobiTi korelacia.
zogjer saWiroa or X da Y sidides Soris kavSiris gazomva,
romlebic damokidebulia garkveul Z
1
, Z
2
,, Z
k
cvladebze. aseT SemTx-
vevebSi saWiroa korelaciis kerZo koeficientis SemoReba, romelic
Semdegnairad gansazRvreba. orive X da Y sidide ganixileba, rogorc
Z
1
, Z
2
,, Z
k
damoukidebel cvladebze damokidebuli sidide da maTTvis
ganixileba wrfivi mravlobiTi regresiis modelebi. miRebul naSTiT
E
X
da E
Y
wevrebs Soris korelacias uwodeben swored X da Y sidide-
ebs Soris korelaciis kerZo koeficients. aseTi koeficientis cneba
Cven SegviZlia SemoviRoT mravlobiTi regresiis wrfiv modelSic, ro-
desac Y sidide ganixileba, rogorc X
1
, X
2
,, X
k
damoukidebel cvlad-
ebze damokidebuli sidide da Cven gvainteresebs X
i
-sa da Y sidideebs
197
Soris korelaciis kerZo koeficientis gansazRvra. cxadia, rom am Sem-
TxvevaSi, E
Y
=Y -
1 1 1
( ,..., , ,..., )
i i k
Y x x x x
+
da E
Xi
= X
i
-
1 1 1
( ,..., , ,..., )
i i i k
X x x x x
+
,
sadac
1 1 1
( ,..., , ,..., )
i i k
Y x x x x
+
da
1 1 1
( ,..., , ,..., )
i i i k
X x x x x
+
Sesabamisad aRniS-
navs Y da X
i
sidideebis prognozebs X
1
, , X
i-1
, X
i+1
,, X
k
damoukidebe-
li cvladebiT.
aseve xSirad saWiroa kavSiris dadgena Y sididesa da yvela X
1
,
X
2
,, X
k
prediqtors Soris, romlebic ganixileba erT jgufad. aseT
SemTxvevaSi ganmartaven mravlobiTi korelaciis koeficients, rogorc
korelaciis koeficients Y-sa da

=

k
i
i i
X b
1
~
sidides Soris.
13.9. mravlobiTi logisturi regresia.
aqamde Cven vixilavdiT wrfiv regresiul modelebs, romlebSic
gamoZaxili warmoadgenda normalurad ganawilebul SemTxveviT sidid-
es. xSirad saWiroa msgavsi analizis Catareba gamoZaxilisaTvis, rome-
lsac aqvs binomuri ganawileba. aseT SemTxvevaSi iyeneben e.w. logist-
uri regresiis modelebs, romlis mixedviTac ganawilebis p paramet-
ris e.w. logisturi gardaqmnisaTvis, romelic gansazRvreba, rogorc
ln(p/(1- p)), ganixileba Semdegi wrfivi mravlobiTi regresiuli mode-
li:
ln(p/(1- p)) = a +

=

k
i
i i
X b
1
, (13.34)
sadac X
1
, X
2
,, X
k
ganixileba damoukidebel sidideebad da Y gamoZaxi-
li, rogorc aRvniSneT, warmoadgns binomur SemTxveviT sidides para-
metriT p. aRvniSnoT L a +

=

k
i
i i
X b
1
. am sidides e.w. wrfiv prediqto-
rs uwodeben. maSin advilia imis danaxva, rom (13.34) eqvivalenturia
Semdegi modelisa:
p =
) exp( 1
) exp(
L
L
+
, (13.35)
saidanac cxadad Cans, rom p parametris mniSvneloba moTavsebulia
[0,1] intervalSi, miuxedavad imisa, Tu ra mniSvnelobebs Rebuloben
damoukidebeli cvladebi.
imisaTvis, rom gaviazroT regresiis b
i
, i = 1,2,,k, koeficiente-
bis Sinaarsi, davuSvaT, rom p parametri warmoadgens raime daavadebis
SeZenis albaTobas da davuSvaT, rom ori A da B individisaTvis yvela
X
1
, X
2
,, X
k
faqtori erTnairad zemoqmedebs orive individze, garda X
i
-
sa. davuSvaT, rom X
i
= 1-s A individisaTvis da X
i
= 0-s B individisaT-
vis. maSin cxadia, rom:
198
ln(p
A
/(1- p
A
)) - ln(p
B
/(1- p
B
)) = b
i
, (13.36)
anu
exp(b
i
) = (p
A
/(1- p
A
)) / (p
B
/(1- p
B
)). (13.37)
Tu gavixsenebT avadmyofobis Sansebis fardobis gamosaxulebas
SeuRlebis 22 cxrilebisaTvis 12.3 punqtidan, davaskvniT, rom
exp(b
i
) = O
RA
/ O
RB
. (13.38)
amitom cxadia, rom
R
O
~
= )
~
exp(
i
b . garda amisa, ndobis interval-
is (12.19) formula Sansebis fardobis WeSmariti mniSvnelobisaTvis,
SegviZlia gadavweroT logisturi regresiis terminebSi Semdegnairad:
[exp(
i
b
~
- z
1-o/2
se(
i
b
~
));exp(
i
b
~
+ z
1-o/2
se(
i
b
~
))]. (13.39)
aqedan Cven vxedavT, rom logisturi regresiis meTodebi SeiZl-
eba gamoyenebul iqnas kategoruli monacemebis analizisaTvisac.
Tu Cven romelime statistikuri paketis saSualebiT gamovTvl-
iT logisturi regresiis a
~
da
i
b
~
koeficientebs, i = 1,2,,k, maSin
SegviZlia gamovTvaloT wrfivi L prediqtoris wertilovani Sefaseba
=
+ =
k
i
i i
x b a L
1
~
~
~
yoveli individisaTvis X
1
, X
2
,, X
k
faqtorebis mocem-
uli x
1
, x
2
,, x
k
mniSvnelobebisaTvis da avagoT wrfivi prediqtorisa-
Tvis 100(1-o)%-iani ndobis intervali
(L
1
;L
2
) = L
~
z
1-o/2
se( L
~
). (13.40)
cxadia, rom p parametris wertilovani Sefaseba iqneba
p
~
= exp( L
~
)/(1+ exp( L
~
)) (13.41)
da (13.40)-dan SegviZlia avagoT 100(1-o)%-iani ndobis (p
1
;p
2
) interva-
li p parametris WeSmariti mniSvnelobisaTvisac. kerZod,
p
1
= exp(L
1
)/(1+ exp(L
1
)) da p
2
= exp(L
2
)/(1+ exp(L
2
)). (13.42)
amocanebi
1. filtvebis funqciurobis standartul sazomad iyeneben FEV
(Forced Expiratory Volume) sidides (litrebSi). es sidide, rogorc we-
si, damokidebulia simaRlesa da asakze. imisaTvis, rom gamoekvliaT
mxolod simaRleze damokidebulebis sakiTxi, SearCies erTnairi asakis,
10-dan 15 wlamde asakis 655 biWi da miiRes cxrilSi warmodgenili
monacemebi (monacemebi gasaSualebulia yoveli 4sm-iT daSorebuli
jgufisaTvis):
simaRle, sm saSualo FEV, l simaRle, sm saSualo FEV, l
134 1.7 158 2.7
138 1.9 162 3.0
142 2.0 166 3.1
146 2.1 170 3.4
199
150 2.2 174 3.8
154 2.5 178 3.9
1.1. aageT gafantulobis diagrama da daadgineT, gvaqvs Tu ara modelis
wrfivobis daSvebis safuZveli;
1.2. umcires kvadratTa meTodis gamoyenebiT, aageT regresiis wrfe;
1.3. rogoria FEV-is prognozi 165 sm simaRlis biWebisaTvis?
1.4. aageT F -kriteriumi regresiis wrfivobisaTvis;
1.5. aageT t -kriteriumi regresiis wrfivobisaTvis;
1.6. FEV-is variaciis ra nawilia damokidebuli simaRleze?
1.7. aageT 95%iani ndobis intervali regresiis koeficientebisaTvis;
1.8. aageT 95%iani ndobis intervali regresiis prognozisaTvis.
2. arsebobs Tu ara kavSiri martoobis grZnobasa da depresias
Soris? cxrilSi mocemulia 10 piris qulebi martoobisa da depresiis
skalebze.
Mmartoobis qula 4 27 18 7 30 12 18 23 19 12
D depresiis qula 16 37 33 23 34 32 24 29 26 26
2.1. aageT gabnevis diagrama;
2.2. gamoTvaleT korelaciis koeficenti;
2.3. rogoria kavSiri am or cvlads Soris?
3. qvemoT mocemulia 10 pirisgan Semdgari SerCevis sxeulis
wonisa da TviTpativiscemis qulebi
wona ( funtebSi) 100 111 117 124 136 139 143 151 155 164
TviTpativiscema 39 47 54 23 35 30 48 20 28 46
3.1. aageT gabnevis diagrama;
3.2. arsebobs Tu ara kavSiri am monacemebs Soris?
4. axseniT ratom aris jvaredina namravlebi monacemTa or simr-
avles Soris korelaciis sazomi.
5. gansazRvreT is sami SesaZlo mizezSedegobrivi kavSiri, riT-
ac SeiZleba korelaciis axsna.
6. dakavSirebulia Tu ara iumoris grZnoba fizikur janmrTel-
obasTan?
iumoris kiTxvari 36 68 61 47 35 48 42 30 56 39 51 54 60 29 65 47
fizikuri janmrTeloba 9 3 12 12 15 17 10 17 11 17 14 8 3 13 7 8
gamoiyeneT mniSnelovnobis 0.05 done.
7. cxrilSi mocemulia 15 mamakacisagan mopovebuli gabrazebis
donis qulebi da sisxlis sistoluri wnevis maCveneblebi.
brazis done 64 30 37 39 17 28 36 34 44 32 37 47 50 41 46
sisxl. wneva 170 132 129 144 145 122 124 145 137 115 127 148 148 144 133
SerCevis safuZvelze ra daskvnis gakeTeba SeiZleba gabrazebis donesa
da sisxlis wnevas Soris kavSiris Sesaxeb.
8. cxrilSi mocemulia abiturentebis mier zogadi unarebis
verbaluri 15 60 89 22 32 50 75 75
200
maTematika 20 58 80 12 28 46 60 89
ra daskvnis gakeTeba SeiZleba verbalur da maTematikur nawilebSi mi-
Rebuli qulebs Soris kavSiris Sesaxeb.
9. fsiqologs ainteresebda arsebobs Tu ara kavSiri material-
ur uzrunvelyofasa da gamocdis win SfoTvas Soris. gamokiTxuli
iyo 10 studenti:
SfoTvis qulebi 2 5 6 10 10 17 30 10 8
materialuri uzr.
qulebi 5 20 22 30 20 55 40 30 27
SeamowmeT arsebobs Tu ara kavSiri am or sidides Soris.
10. daalageT 5 korelaciis koeficienti iseTnairad, rom pirve-
li aRniSnavdes umcires wrfiv kavSirs, ukanaskneli ki udides wrfiv
kavSirs cvladebs Soris.
11. tbis ekologiuri mdgomareobis Sesaswavlad aRebuli iyo 8
sinji da maTSi gazomili iyo Jangbadis Semadgenloba. paralelurad
iTvlidnen daWerili kalmaxebis raodenobas.
Jangbadis Semadgenloba 27 12 25 26 26 16 15 23 16
kalmaxebis raodenoba 42 17 35 43 27 20 39 27 20
arsebobs Tu ara kavSiri Jangbadis Semadgenlobasa da daWerili kalma-
xebis raodenobas Soris.
12. eqims ainteresebda aris Tu ara dakavSirebuli epilefsiiT
daavadebuli bavSvebis done dRe-RameSi Mali-is epizodebTan. ori kvi-
ris dakvirvebis Sedegebi moyvanilia cxrilSi:
Petit mal Episode 1 4 3 4 3 2 2 1
dopaminis done 6.5 8.3 9.7 8.1 7.5 7.0 6.1 6.3
13. zRvaSi mZime liTonebis done gansazRvravs wylis xarisxs.
baltiis zRvaze aRebuli iyo 8 sinji. X-iT aRniSnulia stronciumis
wona, xolo Y-iT ki sinjis wona.
X 4.0 5.5 4.5 4.25 6.0 5.75 4.5 4.0
Y 14 17 19 14 18 22 16 16
a) aageT gabnevis diagrama;
b) gamoTvaleT korelaciis koeficienti;
g) aageT saprognozo wrfe.
14. sadazRvevo kompania ikvlevs ramdenad Zlieria kavSiri samu-
Sao dRis xangrZlivobasa da ubedur SemTxvevaTa sixSires Soris.
saaTebis raodenoba 40 32 36 44 41
SemTxvevaTa sixSire 1 1 3 8 5
risi toli iqneba ubedur SemTxvevaTa sixSire, Tu kviraSi 42 samuSao
saaTia?
15. firmis direqcias ainteresebs gaigos aris Tu ara kavSiri
misi TanamSromlebis asaksa da maT mier wlis ganmavlobaSi gacdenil
dReebs Soris.
201
asaki 18 26 39 48 53 58
gacdenili dReebi 16 12 9 5 6 2
15.1. ipoveT korelaciis koeficienti da misi saSualebiT daadgineT
rogor kavSirSi imyofebian es cvladebi;
15.2. risi toli iqneba gacdenili dReebis raodenoba, Tu asaki iqneba
30-is toli?
l e q c i a 15.
Tavi 14. daskvniTi statistikis araparametruli
meTodebi.
14.1. Sesavali.
daskvniTi statistikis mTeli wina masala, exeboda statistikis
parametrul amocanebs, anu iseT amocanebs, romlebSic cnobili iyo
modelis ganawilebis saxe (is rogorc wesi, iyo normaluri an binomu-
ri) da statistikuri daskvnebi keTdeboda am ganawilebis ucnobi para-
metrebis Sesaxeb. Tu es daSvebebi ar keTdeba modelis Sesaxeb, an cen-
traluri zRvariTi Teoremis pirobebi darRveulia, maSin amocanebis
amosaxsnelad iyeneben statistikis araparametrul meTodebs, romelTa
mixedviTac modelis Sesaxeb keTdeba sakmaod susti daSvebebi da amden-
ad, hipoTezebi mowmdeba ganawilebis funqciaTa farTo klasisaTvis. ma-
galiTad, aqac SeiZleba gvainteresebdes ori populaciis saSualoebis
Sedarebis amocana. radgan aRar keTdeba populaciaTa normalurobis
daSveba, cxadia, rom populaciaTa Sesabamisi ganawilebebi SeiZleba
iyos toli saSualoebis mqone nebismieri ganawilebebi. garda amisa, am
amocanisaTvis wyvilTa t-kriteriumi optimaluri iyo mxolod da mxo-
lod im daSvebisas, roca populaciebi normaluradaa ganawilebuli.
Tu ganawilebaTa normaluroba ara gvaqvs da gadaxra am daSvebisagan
didia, maSin optimaluri aRmoCndeba am nawilSi Sesaswavli e.w. rango-
brivi kriteriumebi. aq Cven SeviswavliT ramdenime aseT kriteriums.
esenia: niSnebis kriteriumi, uilkoksonis niSniani rangebis kriteriu-
mi, uilkoksonis rangTa jamebis kriteriumi, kraskal-uolisis krite-
riumi da spirmenis kriteriumi, romelic eyrdnoba rangobrivi korel-
aciis koeficients.
14.2. niSnebis kriteriumi.
14.2.1. normaluri aproqsimacia.
magaliTi 14.1. undodaT SeedarebinaT ori A da B tipis mazis
efeqturoba mziT damwvrobis sawinaaRmdegod. amisaTvis orive tipis
mazi wausves 45 adamians SemTxveviT amorCeul mklavze (erTi, erT
202
mklavze, xolo meore ki meoreze). aRmoCnda, rom 22 SemTxvevaSi B ti-
pis mazwasmuli mklavi ufro wiTeli iyo, vidre A tipisa; 18 SemTxve-
vaSi piriqiT da mxolod 5 SemTxvevaSi A da B tipis mazebs hqondaT
erTnairi efeqti. SeiZleba Tu ara am monacemebis mixedviT davaskvnaT,
rom damwvrobis sawinaaRmdegod A tipis mazi jobia B tipisas?
aRvniSnoT, i-uri individisaTvis damwvrobis xarisxi A tipis ma-
zis xmarebisas x
i
-iT da igive sidide B tipis mazis xmarebisas iyos y
i
.
erTi SexedviT, saqme gvaqvs dawyvilebul monacemebTan, magram rogorc
vxedavT, CvenTvis cnobili araa arc x
i
da arc y
i
sidideTa mniSvnelob-
ebi TavisTavad da maSasadame, arc maTi sxvaobebi, d
i
= x
i
- y
i
, romelic
gamoiyeneboda wyvilTa t-kriteriumis asagebad dawyvilebul monacemeb-
Si. erTaderTi, rac CvenTvisaa cnobili, is aris, Tu ramden SemTxveva-
Si iyo es sidide uaryofiTi d
i
< 0, ramdenjer dadebiTi d
i
> 0 da ra-
mdenjer 0-is toli, anu d
i
= 0. SemoviRoT Sesabamisi SemTxveviTi sidi-
deebi X
i
, Y
i
da D
i
= X
i
- Y
i
da SevecadoT maT terminebSi gamovTqvaT is,
risi Semowmebac gvinda. bunebrivia, davuSvaT, rom D
1
, D
2
,, D
n
damouk-
idebeli da erTnairad ganawilebuli SemTxveviTi sidideebia, Tumca
Cven araferi viciT maTi F
D
ganawilebis saxis Sesaxeb. ganawilebis sa-
xe Cven arc gvWirdeba, radgan cxadia, rom Cveni amocana mdgomareobs
mxolod imis dadgenaSi, aqvs Tu ara efeqti romelime mazs, anu mniSv-
nelovania Tu ara gansxvaveba damwvrobaTa sawinaaRmdego efeqtebis ra-
odenobebs (22sa da 18-s) Soris, A da B tipis mazebis xmarebisas.
cxadia, rom rac ufro axlos aRmoCndeba es raodenobebi (an Sesabamisi
fardobiTi sixSireebi) erTmaneTTan, miT ufro ver gavarCevdiT gansxv-
avebas mazebs Soris. magram radgan fardobiTi sixSireebi axlosaa Ses-
abamis xdomilobaTa albaTobebTan, amitom es iqneboda Sedegi {D < 0}
da {D > 0} xdomilobaTa albaTobebis tolobisa. amdenad, gasagebia,
rom Cveni amocana mdgomareobs Semdegi nulovani hipoTezis Semowmeba-
Si: H
0
: m
D
= 0, sadac m
D
aRniSnavs F
D
ganawilebis medianas, anu iseT
wertils, romlisaTvisac
F
D
(m
D
) = P{D < m
D
} = P{D > m
D
}= 1 - F
D
(m
D
) F
D
(m
D
) = 1/2. (14.1)
cxadia, rom Cven saqme gvaqvs ormxriv alternativasTan: H
1
: m
D
= 0.
kriteriumis asagebad SemoviRoT SemTxveviTi sidide
=
> =
n
i
i
D I T
1
} 0 { , (14.2)
sadac n aRniSnavs SerCevis moculobas (0-sagan gansxvavebul D
i
-ebis
raodenobas) da } 0 { >
i
D I aris SemTxveviTi sidide, romelsac {D
i
> 0}
xdomilobis indikators uwodeben da romelic ase ganimarteba:
<
>
= >
0 , 0
0 , 1
} 0 {
i
i
i
D
D
D I
Tu
Tu
(14.3)
203
maSin gasagebia, rom T gviCvenebs SerCevis im D
i
-ebis raodenobas,
romlebic dadebiTia. amitom T SemTxveviT sidides H
0
: m
D
= 0 hipoTez-
is samarTlianobis dros aqvs binomuri ganawileba cdaTa ricxviT n
da ganawilebis parametriT p = P{D
i
> 0}= 1/2. cxadia, rom Tu np(1- p)
= n / 4 > 5, anu n > 20, binomuri ganawilebisaTvis dasaSvebia normaluri
aproqsimacia, anu
(T ET ) / DT = (T n/2 ) / 4 / n ~ N(0;1) (14.4)
da amitom statistikuri kriteriumi ase yalibdeba:
t > n/2 + 1/2 + z
1-o/2
4 / n an t > n/2 - 1/2 - z
1-o/2
4 / n , (14.5)
0
: m
D
= 0 hipoTezas uarvyofT, winaa-
Rmdeg SemTxvevaSi, amis safuZveli ara gvaqvs. cxadia, rom kriteriumis
Sesabamisi p-mniSvneloba tolia
p = 2(1-u(( t - n/2 1/2) / 4 / n ))), roca t > n/2 da
p = 2u(( t - n/2 + 1/2) / 4 / n )), roca t < n/2. (14.6)
davubrundeT 15.1 magaliTs da vnaxoT, ras mogvcems kritertiu-
mi. am SemTxvevaSi, n = 45 -5 = 40 > 20, t = 18 < n/2 = 20. davuSvaT, o =
0.05. maSin z
0.975
= 1.96 da t
1
= n/2 - 1/2 - z
1-o/2
4 / n = 20 1/2
1.96(40/4)
1/2
~ 13.3 da t
2
= n/2 + 1/2 + z
1-o/2
4 / n = 20 +1/2 + 1.96(40/4)
1/2
~
26.7.
vinaidan 13.3 s t = 18 s 26.7 davaskvniT, rom o = 0.05 mniSvnelovn-
ebis doniT H
0
: m
D
= 0 hipoTezis uaryofis safuZveli ara gvaqvs. maSa-
sadame, A da B tipis mazebs aqvs erTnairi sicxis sawinaaRmdego efeq-
ti. cxadia, igive pasuxs mogvcemda p-mniSvnelobis gamoTvlac. marT-
lac, radgan t = 18 < n/2 = 20, (14.6)-is meore tolobidan p-mniSvneloba
tolia p = 2u(( t - n/2 + 1/2) / 4 / n )) = 2u((20 - 18 + 1/2) /(40/4)
1/2
)) ~
0.635>0.05.
14.2.2. zusti meTodi.
zusti meTodi gulisxmobs p-mniSvnelobis gamoTvlas zustad
da is upiratesad gamoiyeneba im SemTxvevaSi, roca dauSvebelia binomu-
ri ganawilebis normaluriT aproqsimacia, anu roca n < 20. am SemTxve-
vaSi, p-mniSvneloba gamoiTvleba formuliT:
p = 2P{bin(n,1/2) > t} =

>

t k
n k
n
C ) 2 / 1 ( , roca t > n/2 da
p = 2P{bin(n,1/2) s t} =

s

t k
n k
n
C ) 2 / 1 ( , roca t < n/2. (14.7)
204
14.3. uilkoksonis niSniani rangebis kriteriumi.
magaliTi 14.2. davuSvaT, rom magaliT 14.2-Si A da B tipis ma-
zebis Sedareba xdeba damwvrobis xarisxebis mixedviT, romelic izom-
eba 10 baliani skaliT da monacemebi warmodgenilia Semdegi cxrilis
saxiT:
sxvaoba, d
i
sixSire, f
i
sxvaoba, d
I
sixSire, f
I
-10 0 10 0
-9 0 9 0
-8 1 8 0
-7 3 7 0
-6 2 6 0
-5 2 5 0
-4 1 4 0
-3 5 3 2
-2 4 2 6
-1 4 1 10
X
22
X
18
0 5
am cxrilSi mocemuli sidideebis gasaazreblad ganvixiloT mag-
aliTad, d
i
= -6 da Sesabamisad, f
i
= 2 SemTxveva. es imas niSnavs, rom or
adamians A tipis mazis xmarebisas cal xelze da B tipisas meoreze,
aRmoaCnda damwvrobis xarisxebs Soris sxvaoba 6-is toli, Tanac A
tipis mazis sasargeblod. Cveni amocana kvlav mdgomareobs am monaceme-
bze dayrdnobiT gavarkvioT mazebis efeqturobis tolobis sakiTxi.
cxadia, rom hipoTeza da alternativa aq isev ise yalibdeba:
H
0
: m
D
= 0 da H
1
: m
D
= 0.
erTi SexedviT kvlav SeiZleba mogveCvenos, rom aq SesaZlebelia
wyvilTa t-kriteriumis gamoyeneba, magram SevniSnoT, rom monacemebi ga-
zomilia e.w. ordinalur skalaSi, anu isini dalagebulia, magram ar
gaaCniaT konkretuli ricxviTi mniSvneloba. sxva sityvebiT rom vTqv-
aT, d
i
= -6 sulac ar niSnavs imas, rom 6-baliani sxvaoba 6-jer metia
1-balian d
i
= -1 sxvaobaze, es dalageba gulisxmobs mxolod, rom A
tipis mazis sasargeblod -6 jobia -5-s, -5 jobia -4-s da a.S. amitom
aseT SemTxvevaSi gamoiyeneba uilkoksonis niSniani rangebis kriteriu-
mi, romelic Semdegnairad igeba: pirvel rigSi, gamovricxoT is monace-
mebi, sadac d
i
= 0; Semdeg SevxedoT erTnairi modulebis mqone d
i
-ebis
jamur sixSireebs, magaliTad, im monacemebis raodenoba, sadac | d
i
| = 1,
aris 4 + 10 = 14; im monacemebis raodenoba, sadac | d
i
| = 2, aris 4 + 6 =
10 da a.S. im monacemebis jgufs, sadac | d
i
| = 1, da monacemebis raoden-
oba aris 14, Seesabameba rangebis diapazoni 1-dan 14-mde, amitom am
jgufs mivaniWoT saSualo rangi (1 + 14)/2 = 7.5, analogiurad, im jgu-
205
fisaTvis, sadac | d
i
| = 2 da monacemebis raodenoba aris 10, Seesabameba
rangebis diapazoni 14+1=15-dan 14+10 = 24-mde, amitom am jgufs mivan-
iWoT saSualo rangi (15 + 24)/2 = 19.5 da a.S. aseTi wesiT miRebuli
ricxvebi CavweroT cxrilis saxiT. miviRebT:
| d
I
| sixSire rangis diapazoni saSualo rangi
10 0 + 0 = 0
9 0 + 0 = 0
8 1 + 0 = 1 40 40.0
7 3 + 0 = 3 37 39 38.0
6 2 + 0 = 2 35 36 35.5
5 2 + 0 = 2 33 34 33.5
4 1 + 0 = 1 32 32.0
3 5 + 2 = 7 25 31 28.0
2 4 + 6 = 10 15 24 19.5
1 4 + 10 = 14 1 14 7.5
kriteriumis statistikad iReben statistika R
+
-s, romelic wa-
rmoadgens dadebiTniSniani d
i
-ebis Sesabamisi rangebis jams, romlis
ricxviTi maxasiaTeblebic tolia:
ER
+
= n(n + 1)/4 da DR
+
= n(n + 1)(2n + 1)/24 (14.8)
da romlisaTvisac mtkicdeba, rom Tu aranulovani d
i
-ebis raodenoba >
16, maSin R
+
-is ganawileba aproqsimirdeba normaluri ganawilebiT, anu
T =
24 / ) 1 2 )( 1 (
2 / 1 4 / ) 1 ( 2 / 1
+ +
+
=

+
+
+ +
n n n
n n R
DR
ER R
~ N(0;1). (14.9)
SevniSnoT, rom es Tanafardoba samarTliania maSin, rodesac ara
gvaqvs erTnairi modulebis mqone sxvaobaTa jgufebi. im SemTxvevaSi,
roca es piroba darRveulia (rogorc es Cvens magaliTSia) (14.9)-Si
dispersiis gamosaxuleba unda Seswordes. kerZod, aseT dros
DR
+
= n(n + 1)(2n + 1)/24 -
=

g
i
i i
t t
1
3
2 / ) ( , (14.10)
sadac t
i
-iT aRniSnulia i-ur jgufSi sxvaobaTa raodenoba, romlebsac
erTnairi modulebi aqvT da g aRniSnavs aseTi jgufebis saerTo raod-
enobas.
statistikuri kriteriumi ase yalibdeba:
| t | > z
1-o/2
, (14.11)
0
: m
D
= 0 hipoTezas uarvyofT, winaa-
Rmdeg SemTxvevaSi, amis safuZveli ara gvaqvs. cxadia, rom kriteriumis
Sesabamisi p-mniSvneloba tolia
p = 2(1 - u( t)). (14.12)
206
davubrundeT 15.2 magaliTs. am SemTxvevaSic, n = 45 - 5 = 40 > 16
da amitom dasaSvebia normaluri aproqsimacia. ukanaskneli cxrilidan
gamovTvaloT R
+
-is dakvirvebuli mniSvneloba. gvaqvs:
r
+
= 107.5 + 619.5 +228.0 = 248;
(14.10) formulis mixedviT gamovTvaloT Sesworebuli dispersiis mni-
Svneloba:
DR
+
= n(n + 1)(2n + 1)/24 -
=

g
i
i i
t t
1
3
2 / ) ( = 404181/24 [(14
3
-14) +
+ (10
3
-10) + (7
3
-7) + (2
3
- 2) + (2
3
- 2) +(3
3
- 3)]/2 = 3489.
amitom sabolood, (14.9) formulis mixedviT gamoTvlili T
statistikis dakvirvebuli t mniSvneloba tolia:
t =
+
+
+
DR
n n r 2 / 1 4 / ) 1 (
= (|248 - 4041/4|-1/2)/3489
1/2
= 2.73.
(14.12)-dan vpoulobT kriteriumis Sesabamis p-mniSvnelobas:
p = 2(1-u( t)) = 2(1-u(2.73)) = 0.006,
rac cxadia, metyvelebs Sedegis statistikur mniSvnelovnebaze da maS-
asadame, H
0
: m
D
= 0 hipoTezas uarvyofT da davaskvniT, rom A tipis
mazi jobia B tipisas. rogorc vxedavT, 14.1 magaliTisagan gansxvaveb-
iT, miviReT sawinaaRmdego daskvna. es metyvelebs imaze, rom rac ufro
meti informaciaa xelmisawvdomi, daskvna miT ufro zusti iqneba: 14.1
magaliTSi mocemuli informaciiT laparaki iyo mxolod imaze, Tu da-
mwvrobis xarisxebs Soris sxvaoba dadebiTia Tu uaryofiTi da amitom-
ac iq miRebulze ukeTesi daskvnis miReba SeuZlebelia, maSin roca
14.2 magaliTSi damwvrobis xarisxebi xasiaTdeba kidev maTi siaxloviT;
amitomac informaciis damatebam 14.2 magaliTSi Tvisobrivad Secvala
statistikuri daskvna.
SevniSnoT, rom am kriteriumis statistikad Cven gamoviyeneT
statistika R
+
-s, romelic warmoadgens dadebiTniSniani d
i
-ebis Sesaba-
misi rangebis jams. bunebrivia ismis kiTxva: ra moxdeboda, rom agveRo
R
-
, romelic uaryofiTniSniani d
i
-ebis Sesabamisi rangebis jamia? amis
dasadgenad unda aRvniSnoT, rom
R
+
+ R
-
= n(n + 1)/2, (14.13)
saidanac cxadia, rom | R
-
- n(n + 1)/4 | = | R
+
- n(n + 1)/4 | da amitom
(14.9) statistikis mniSvneloba ar icvleba.
14.4. uilkoksonis rangTa jamis kriteriumi.
wina punqtSi Seswavlili niSniani rangebis kriteriumi, garkveu-
li azriT, aris t-kriteriumis araparametruli analogi dawyvilebuli
monacemebisaTvis. axla Cven gvinda SeviswavloT imave t-kriteriumis
207
araparametruli analogi damoukidebeli SerCevebisaTvis. saxelad am
kriteriums hqvia uilkoksonis rangTa jamis kriteriumi.
magaliTi 14.3. iTvleba, rom sxvadasxva genotips aqvs Tvalis
baduris anTebis (RP Retinitis Pigmentosa) ganviTarebis sxvadasxva sis-
wrafe: dominanturi forma, romlis drosac daavadeba nela viTardeba;
recesiuli forma, romlis drosac daavadeba ufro nela viTardeba da
SL (Sex-linked) forma, romlis drosac daavadeba viTardeba swrafad.
am hipoTezis Sesamowmeblad daakvirdnen 10-19 asakobrivi jgufis moz-
rdebSi VA (vizual acuity) sidideebs, romlebsac hqondaT RP-is sxvadas-
xva genotipi da miiRes cxrilSi warmodgenili monacemebi:
VA dominanturi forma SL forma
20 20 5 1
20 25 9 5
20 30 6 4
20 40 3 4
20 50 2 8
20 60 0 5
20 70 0 2
20 80 0 1
X = 25 X = 30
rogor SeiZleba es monacemebi gamoviyenoT imis Sesamowmeblad, rom
VA sidideebis ganawilebaTa medianebi ori formisaTvis sxvadasxvaa?
aRvniSnoT m
D
Ti da m
SL
iT Sesabamisad pirveli da meore amok-
refis Sesabamisi populaciebis medianebi. maSin nulovani da alternat-
iuli hipoTeza ase yalibdeba: H
0
: m
D
= m
SL
da H
0
: m
D
= m
SL
. wina punq-
tSi ganxiluli amocanis msgavsad, aqac ar SeiZleba tkriteriumis ga-
moyeneba, imis gamo, rom VA sidideebis ricxviTi mniSvnelobebi Cven ar
viciT. aseT SemTxvevebSi gardauvalia araparametruli meTodis gamoye-
neba. uilkoksonis rangTa jamis kriteriumi, romlis gamoyenebasac aq
vapirebT, warmoadgens swored aseT meTods. is damyarebulia monacemTa
rangebze da Semdegnairad igeba: gavaerTianoT orive amokrefa da mivaw-
eroT rangebi VA sidideebis zrdadobis mixedviT (saukeTeso VA sidi-
didan (20-20), Zalze cudamde (20-80)). magaliTad, gaerTianebuli Se-
rCevisaTvis pirveli striqonidan miviRebT, rom monacemebis raodenobaa
5 + 1 = 6, amitom mas miewereba rangobrivi 1 6 intervali da saSualo
rangi iqneba (1 + 6) / 2 = 3.5, meore striqonisaTvis Sesabamisad gveqneba
9 + 5 = 14, rangebis intervalia 7 20 (wina intervalis udidess + 1,
anu 6 + 1 = 7 da wina intervalis udidess + 14, anu 6 + 14 = 20) da a.S.
sabolood, miRebuli Sedegebi warmovadginoT Semdegi cxrilis
saSualebiT:
gaerTianebuli SerCeva rangebis diapazoni saSualo rangi
5 + 1 = 6 1 6 3.5
208
9 + 5 = 14 7 20 13.5
6 + 4 = 10 21 30 25.5
3 + 4 = 7 31 37 34.0
2 + 8 = 10 38 47 42.5
0 + 5 = 5 48 52 50.0
0 + 2 = 2 53 54 53.5
0 + 1 = 1 55 55.0
X = 55
kriteriumis statistikad iReben statistika R
1
-s, romelic wa-
rmoadgens I amokrefis Sesabamisi rangebis jams, romlis ricxviTi max-
asiaTeblebic tolia:
ER
1
= n
1
(n
1
+ n
2
+ 1) / 2 da DR
1
= n
1
n
2
(n
1
+ n
2
+ 1) / 12 (14.14)
da romlisaTvisac mtkicdeba, rom Tu umciresi SerCevis moculoba,
anu min(n
1
, n
2
) > 10 da SerCevaTa Sesabamisi populaciebi uwyvetadaa ga-
nawilebuli, maSin R
1
-is ganawileba aproqsimirdeba normaluri ganawi-
lebiT, anu
T =
12 / ) 1 (
2 / 1 2 / ) 1 ( 2 / 1
2 1 2 1
2 1 1 1
1
1 1
+ +
+ +
=

n n n n
n n n R
DR
ER R
~ N(0;1). (14.15)
SevniSnoT, rom es Tanafardoba samarTliania maSin, rodesac ga-
erTianebul amokrefaSi elementi xvdeba erTxel. im SemTxvevaSi, roca
es piroba darRveulia (rogorc es Cvens magaliTSia) (14.14)-Si dispe-
rsiis gamosaxuleba unda Seswordes. kerZod, am SemTxvevaSi
DR
1
= (n
1
n
2
/ 12) [n
1
+ n
2
+ 1 -
) 1 ( ) (
) (
2 1 2 1
1
3
+ +
=
n n n n
t t
g
i
i i
], (14.16)
sadac t
i
-iT aRniSnulia gaerTianebuli SerCevis i-ur striqonSi mdgomi
ricxvi, xolo t
i
-Ti striqonebis saerTo raodenoba. SevniSnoT, rom
(14.16) moicavs (14.14)-s, anu Tu (14.16)-Si yvela t
i
= 1, maSin (14.16)-
dan miviRebT (14.14)-s.
| t | > z
1-o/2
, (14.17)
0
: m
D
= m
SL
hipoTezas uarvyofT, win-
aaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, amis safuZveli ara gvaqvs. cxadia, rom kriteriu-
mis Sesabamisi p-mniSvneloba tolia
p = 2(1-u( t)). (14.18)
davubrundeT 15.3 magaliTs. am SemTxvevaSic, n
2
= 30 > n
1
= 25 > 10
da amitom dasaSvebia normaluri aproqsimacia. ukanaskneli cxrilidan
gamovTvaloT R
1
-is dakvirvebuli mniSvneloba. gvaqvs:
209
r
1
= 53.5 + 913.5 + 625.5 + 334.0 + 242.5 = 479;
cxadia, rom ER
1
= 25(25 + 30 + 1) / 2 = 700.
(14.16) formulis mixedviT gamovTvaloT dispersia:
DR
1
= (n
1
n
2
/ 12) [n
1
+ n
2
+ 1 -
) 1 ( ) (
) (
2 1 2 1
1
3
+ +
=
n n n n
t t
g
i
i i
] =
= (2530/12) [56 - {(6
3
-6) + (14
3
-14) + (10
3
-10) + (7
3
- 7) + (10
3
- 10) +
+ (5
3
- 5) + (2
3
- 2)}/(5554)] = 3386.74.
amitom sabolood, (14.15) formulis mixedviT gamoTvlili T
statistikis dakvirvebuli t mniSvneloba tolia:
t =
1
1 1
2 / 1
DR
ER r
= (|479 - 700|-1/2)/3386.74
1/2
= 3.79.
(14.18)-dan vpoulobT kriteriumis Sesabamis p-mniSvnelobas:
p = 2(1-u( t)) = 2(1-u(3.79)) < 0.001,
rac cxadia, metyvelebs Sedegis statistikur mniSvnelovnebaze da maS-
asadame, H
0
: m
D
= m
SL
hipoTezas uarvyofT da davaskvniT, rom daavadeb-
is dominanturi da SL jgufebi mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdebian: dominan-
tur jgufs aqvs ukeTesi VA.
SevniSnoT, rom kriteriumiT sargeblobisas Cven gamoviyeneT pi-
roba, rom min(n
1
, n
2
) > 10. ra moxdeba im SemTxvevaSi, Tu es piroba da-
rRveulia? aseT SemTxvevaSi, R
1
statitikis dakvirvebul r
1
mniSvnelo-
bas adareben specialur cxrilebSi mocemul zeda da qveda dasaSveb
mniSvnelobebs (romlebic tabulirebulia sxvadasxva o-saTvis) da Tu
r
1
-is mniSvneloba ar moxvdeba am intervalSi, maSin H
0
hipoTezas uar-
yofen, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, kvlav iTvleba, rom hipoTezis uaryofis
safuZveli ara aqvT.
garda amisa, SevniSnavT, rom am kriteriums xSirad man-uitnis
kriteriumsac adareben, romlis Sesabamisi statistikac agebulia im
(x
i
, y
j
) wyvilebis raodenobaze, romelTaTvisac x
i
< y
j
. Cven aq ar moviyv-
anT am kriteriumis agebis proceduras, aRvniSnavT mxolod, rom es
ori kriteriumi arsebiTad eqvivalenturia im azriT, rom maTi Sesabam-
isi p-mniSvnelobebi emTxveva erTmaneTs.
bolos gavixsenoT, rom uilkoksonis rangTa jamis kriteriumis
gamoyenebis erT-erT ZiriTad winapirobas warmoadgens populaciaTa
uwyvetad ganawilebuloba. am mxriv unda aRiniSnos, rom makneilma gam-
oiyena es kriteriumi diskretuli, kerZod, dajgufebuli monacemebisa-
Tvis normaluri ganawilebidan da aCvena, rom miRebuli kriteriumis
simZlavre Zalian cotaTi iklebs igive kriteriumis simZlavresTan Se-
darebiT Cveulebrivi (daujgufebeli) normaluri populaciebidan miRe-
buli SerCevebisaTvis. ase, rom am SemTxvevaSi SesaZlebelia uilkokso-
210
nis rangTa jamis kriteriumis gamoyeneba dajgufebuli monacemebisaTvi-
sac.
14.5. Tanadoba uilkoksonis rangTa jamis kriteriumsa da
2
-kriteriums Soris.
wina nawilSi ganxiluli uilkoksonis rangTa jamis kriteriumi
warmoadgens trendis gamosavleni _
2
kriteriumis kerZo SemTxvevas
2c cxrilebSi, romelic Cven ganvixileT 12.7 punqtis bolos. amis
dasanaxad, 14.5 magaliTSi mocemuli monacemebi warmovadginoT Semdegi
28 cxrilis saxiT:
rogorc vxedavT, VA sidideebis mixedviT monacemebi kategorizebulia
rva binomuri SerCevis saxiT, xolo saSualo rangebi miCneulia qulis
sidideebad.
sazogadod, rogorc gvaxsovs, trendis gamosavlenad 2c cxri-
ls hqonda aseTi saxe:
aRvniSnoT p
i
-iT i-ur SerCevaSi daavadebis albaToba da davuSv-
aT, rom p
i
= p + | S
i
. maSin SerCevaTa erTgvarovnebis hipoTeza gamoiT-
qmeba ase: H
0
: | = 0, xolo alternativa H
1
: | = 0. rogorc gvaxsovs,
_
2
kriteriumi eyrdnoboda X
2
= (|O - E| -1/2)
2
/ V statistikasa da im
faqts, rom H
0
hipoTezis samarTlianobis SemTxvevaSi, T ~
2
(1), sad-
ac
211
O =
1
c
i i
i
x S
=
, E =
1
c
i i
i
x
x S
n
=
, V =
2 2
1 1
( )
( ) /
( 1)
c c
i i i i
i i
x n x
n S n S n
n n
= =
(

(

(14.19)
da gadawyvetilebis miRebis wesi aseTi iyo, rom Tu X
2
statistikis
dakvirvebuli x
2
mniSvneloba metia _
2
1, 1-o
-ze, anu x
2
> _
2
1, 1-o
, maSin H
0
hipoTezas uarvyofdiT, xolo winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, amis safuZveli
ar gvqonda.
amave terminebSi, uilkoksonis kriteriumis statistika ase gam-
oiyureba:
T =
.
|
\
|
+

+
=
)) 1 ( /( ) ( 1
12
) (
2 / 1 2 / ) 1 (
1
3
1
n n n n n
x n x
n x R
c
i
i i
(14.20)
xolo gadawyvetilebis miRebis wesi aseTia: Tu T statistikis dakvi-
rvebuli t mniSvneloba metia z
1-o/2
-ze, anu t > z
1-o/2
, maSin H
0
hipoTezas
uarvyofT, xolo winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, amis safuZveli ara gvaqvs.
vnaxoT ras gvaZlevs _
2
kriteriumi magaliT 14.5-Si. zemoT moy-
vanili 28 cxrilis mixedviT gvaqvs:
O = 53.5+913.5+625.5+334.0+242.5 = 479;
E=(25/55)[63.5+1413.5+1025.5+734.0+1042.5+550.0+253.5+155.0= 700;
V= (2530/5554)[63.5
2
+1413.5
2
+1025.5
2
+734.0
2
+1042.5
2
+550.0
2
+253.5
2
+
+155.0
2
- 1540
2
/55] = 3386.74
da maSasadame, vRebulobT, rom x
2
= (| 479-700 | -1/2)
2
/ 3386.74 = 14.36.
Sesabamisi p-mniSvnelobaa p = P{_
2
1
> x
2
} = P{_
2
1
> 14.36} < 0.001 da H
0
hipoTezas uarvyofT. garda imisa, rom miviReT igive Sedegi, rac uil-
koksonis kriteriumma mogvca, SevniSnoT, rom x
2
= t
2
.
tipiurad es ase moxdeba im SemTxvevaSi, roca qulis sidided
aviRebT saSualo rangebs, magram Tu qulebad avirCevT sxva sidideebs,
maSin x
2
= t
2
, Tumca hipoTezaTa Semowmebis TvalsazrisiT, Sedegi igive
darCeba. SevniSnoT, rom X
2
statistikis dispersiis (14.19) gamosaxul-
ebaSi adre Cven gvqonda
D =
(
(
.
|
\
|

= =
n S n S n
n
x n x
c
i
i i
c
i
i i
/
) (
2
1 1
2
2
,
rac didi n-ebisaTvis umniSvnelod gansxvavdeba V-sagan. es gamowveu-
lia imiT, rom ukanasknel gamosaxulebaSi dispersiis gamosaTvlelad
gamoiyeneba binomuri ganawileba, xolo (14.19)-Si ki hipergeometriu-
li ganawileba, romelic ufro esadageba aRwerili tipis amocanebs.
14.6. kraskel-uolisis kriteriumi.
zogierT situaciaSi Cven gvWirdeba orze meti populaciis saS-
ualos Sedareba, magram dispersiuli analizis (ANOVA) modelebisag-
212
an gansxvavebiT populaciaTa ganawilebebi SeiZleba aRar iyos normal-
uri ganawilebebi. aseT SemTxvevebSi, dispersiuli analizis meTodebi
ar gamodgeba da populaciaTa saSualoebis Sesadareblad saWiroa pop-
ulaciaTa ganawilebebisagan Tavisufali (araparametruli) proceduris
ageba. swored aseT proceduras warmoadgens uilkoksonis kriteriumis
ganzogadeba, romelic literaturaSi kraskel-uolisis kriteriumis
saxeliTaa cnobili. ZiriTad daSvebad am kriteriumis gamoyenebisas
kvlav rCeba populaciaTa uwyvetad ganawilebulobis daSveba.
magaliTi 14.4. cnobilia, rom Tvalis metabolizmze gavlenas
axdens araqidonis mJava (Arachidonic acid). kerZod, cnobilia, rom sxva
efeqtebTan erTad, is iwvevs Tvalis quTuTos daxurvas, itching da mis
gaTavisuflebas. oTxi sxvadasxva wamlis efeqtianobis Sesadareblad
Seiswavleboda maTi moqmedeba albinosur kurdRlebSi araqidonis mJav-
is Seyvanis Semdeg. yovel jgufSi aerTianebdnen eqvs kurdRels da Ti-
Toeul cxovels erT TvalSi awveTebdnen Sesabamis wamals, xolo meo-
reSi uvnebel saSualebas. aTi wuTis Semdeg orive TvalSi awveTebd-
nen araqidonis mJavas. amis Semdeg axdendnen orive Tvalis kontrols
15 wuTis Semdeg quTuTos daxurvidan. yovel cdaSi aRiricxeboda or-
ive Tvalis quTuTo sam baliani, 0-dan 3-mde skaliT, sadac 0 niSnavda
Tvali mTlianad Riaa, 3 niSnavda, rom Tvali mTlianad daxurulia,
xolo 1 da 2 ki niSnavda garkveul Sualedur mdgomareobebs. efeqtu-
robis sazomad (x) iyenebdnen sxvaobas sacdel (wamlian) TvalSi Tval-
is dafarvis xarisxs gamoklebuli igive sididis mniSvneloba meore
TvalSi. x-is didi mniSvneloba miuTiTebs wamlis efeqtianobas. monace-
mebi moyvanilia Semdeg cxrilSi:
kriteriumis asagebad aerTianeben yvela jgufs da TiToeul in-
divids miaweren Sesabamis rangs, an toli monacemebis SemTxvevaSi, ran-
gebis diapazons da Semdeg iTvlian rangebis saSualo
i
R mniSvnelobas
imave wesiT, rogorc es gakeTebuli iyo uilkoksonis kriteriumis age-
bisas. cxrilSi es ukve gakeTebulia (SeamowmeT siswore!). kriteriumis
asagebad adareben jgufebis jamur R
i
rangebs. Tu isini Sorsaa erTm-
aneTisagan, maSin populaciaTa erTgvarovnebis (saSualoTa tolobis)
213
H
0
hipoTezas uaryofen, xolo winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, amis safuZveli
ar arsebobs. imisaTvis, rom gavarkvioT ras niSnavs sityva Sors, mo-
viyvanoT kriteriumis statistikis saxe da TviTon kriteriumi:
.
|
\
|

.
|
\
|
+
+
=

= =
) /( ) ( 1 / ) 1 ( 3
) 1 (
12
3
1
3
1
2
n n t t n
n
R
n n
T
g
j
j j
k
i i
i
, (14.21)
sadac k aRniSnavs SerCevaTa raodenobas, g toli rangebis mqone da-
kvirvebaTa saerTo raodenobas, t
j
aRniSnavs monacemebis raodenobas j-
ur klasterul (toli rangobrivi diapazonis mqone) jgufSi dabol-
os,

=
=
k
i
i
n n
1
- aris gaerTianebuli SerCevis moculoba.
SevniSnoT, rom Tu yvela t
j
= 1, maSin (14.21) wiladis mniSvneli
1-is tolia da gamosaxuleba martivdeba (gvrCeba mxolod mricxveli)
da Rebulobs Semdeg saxes:
) 1 ( 3
) 1 (
12
1
2
+
+
=

=
n
n
R
n n
T
k
i i
i
. (14.22)
garda amisa, Tu SerCevaTa moculobebi tolia (rogorc es 14.4
magaliTSia), maSin n
i
= n/k, imave (14.21) wiladis mricxveli martivdeba
da vRebulobT:
.
|
\
|

.
|
\
|
+
+
=

= =
) /( ) ( 1 / ) 1 ( 3
) 1 (
12
3
1
3
1
2
2
n n t t n R
n n
k
T
g
j
j j
k
i
i
. (14.23)
statistikuri kriteriumi eyrdnoba im faqts, rom H
0
hipoTez-
is samarTlianobisas T ~
2
(k -1) da maSasadame, is ase yalibdeba:
dakvirvebuli t mniSvneloba metia _
2
k - 1, 1-o
-ze, maSin H
0
hipoTezas uar-
vyofT, xolo winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, amis safuZveli ara gvaqvs. krit-
eriumis Sesabamisi p-mniSvneloba tolia p = P{_
2
k 1
> t} da kriteriumi
gamoiyeneba maSin, roca yvela n
i
> 5.
davubrundeT 14.4 magaliTs da vnaxoT, ras mogvcems kriteriu-
mi. kriteriumis statistikis mniSvnelobis gamosaTvlelad moxerxebu-
lia monacemebi warmovadginoT Semdegi cxrilis saxiT:
qula sixSire rangebis diapazoni saSualo rangi
-1 1 1 1.0
0 5 2 6 4.0
+1 5 7 11 9.0
+2 4 12 15 13.5
+3 9 16 24 20.0
gamovTvaloT pirvel rigSi jgufebis jamuri R
i
rangebi:
R
1
= 13.5 + 20.0 + 20.0 + 20.0 + 20.0 + 4.0 = 97.5;
R
2
= 9.0 + 20.0 + 9.0 + 13.5 + 13.5 + 20.0 = 85.0;
R
3
= 20.0 + 9.0 + 13.5 + 9.0 + 20.0 + 20.0 = 91.5;
214
R
4
= 9.0 + 4.0 + 4.0 + 4.0 + 4.0 + 1.0 = 26.0.
(14.23) gamosaxulebis mricxveli tolia:
((124)/(24
2
25))[97.5
2
+ 85
2
+ 91.5
2
+ 26.0
2
] - 325 = 10.932,
xolo mniSvneli Cvens mier Sedgenili cxrilis mixedviT tolia:
) /( ) ( 1
3
1
3
n n t t
g
j
j j

=
= 1-[(5
3
-5) + (5
3
-5) + (4
3
-4) + (9
3
-9)]/ (24
3
-24) = 0.926.
amitom sabolood, t = 10.932/0.926 = 11.804. radgan k = 4, _
2
(3)
ganawilebis cxrilebidan o = 0.01-saTvis gvaqvs _
2
k-1, 1-o
= _
2
3, 0.99
= 11.34
da radgan _
2
3, 0.99
= 11.34 < 11.804 < t, o = 0.01-saTvis H
0
hipoTezas uar-
vyofT da davaskvniT, rom wamlebs aqvT anTebis sawinaaRmdego sxvadas-
xva efeqti.
imis dasadgenad, Tu romeli populaciebis saSualoebi gansxvav-
deba, anu aris Tu ara m-uri da l-uri jgufebis saSualoebi toli,
iyeneben Semdeg statistikas
.
|
\
|
+
+
=
l m
l m l m
n n
n n
R R z
1 1
12
) 1 (
/ ) (
,
(14.24)
da gadawyvetilebis miRebis Semdeg wess:
Tu | z
m,l
| >
*
1 o
z , maSin m-uri da l-uri jgufebis saSualoebis
tolobis hipoTezas uaryofen, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, amis safuZveli
ar arsebobs. aq o
*
= o /(k(k-1)) da
j j j
n R R / = .
14.4 magaliTisaTvis, o
*
= o /(4(4-1)) = o /12 = 0.0042, roca o =
0.05. radgan yvela n
j
= 6, gvaqvs
1
R = R
1
/6 = 97.5/6 = 16.25;
2
R = R
2
/6 = 85/6 = 14.17;
3
R = R
3
/6 = 91.5/6 = 15.25;
4
R = R
4
/6 = 26/6 = 4.33.
amitom
z
1,2
= (16.25 14.17)/(2425/12)(1/6+1/6) = 0.51;
z
1,3
= (16.25 15.25)/(2425/12)(1/6+1/6) = 0.24;
z
1,4
= (16.25 4.33)/(2425/12)(1/6+1/6) = 2.92;
z
2,3
= (14.17 15.25)/(2425/12)(1/6+1/6) = -0.27;
z
2,4
= (14.17 4.33)/(2425/12)(1/6+1/6) = 2.41;
z
3,4
= (15.25 4.33)/(2425/12)(1/6+1/6) = 2.67.
normaluri ganawilebis cxrilebidan vpoulobT, rom
z
1- 0.0042
= z
0.9958
= 2.635
da radgan am kritikul mniSvnelobaze absoluturi sididiT mxolod
z
1,4
da z
3,4
mniSvnelobebia meti, davaskvniT, rom I da III tipis wamlebs
IV tipis wamalTan SedarebiT gaaCniaT mniSvnelovani efeqtebi, xolo
danarCeni Sedegebi statistikurad umniSvneloa.
215
14.7. spirmenis rangobrivi korelaciis koeficienti.
zogjer saWiroa SerCevebze dayrdnobiT or populacias Soris
kavSiris xarisxis gansazRvra, magram es populaciebi araa normalurad
ganawilebuli an gazomvebi Catarebulia ordinalur skalaze da amit-
om ar gamodgeba korelaciuri analizis ukve Seswavlili meTodebi. am
SemTxvevaSi iyeneben spirmenis rangobrivi korelaciis koeficients.
magaliTi 14.5. 1952 wlidan aSS-Si axalSobilis fizikuri kon-
diciis gasazomad dabadebidan 1 da 5 wuTis Semdeg farTod gamoiyeneba
afgaris (Afgar) qulaTa meTodi, romelic dgindeba xuTi komponentis
SekrebiT, romlebic sam balian skalebSi (0-dan 2-mde) izomeba. es meT-
odi warmodgeba aseTi cxrilis saxiT:
davuSvaT, 24 gvaqvs axalSobilis afgaris qulebze dakvirvebebis
Sedegebi dabadebidan 1 da 5 wuTis Semdeg. Cveni amocanaa monacemebze
dakvirvebebis safuZvelze davadginoT am qulebs Soris kavSiris mniSv-
nelovneba. rogor SeiZleba es gakeTdes? monacemebi warmodgenilia Sem-
degi cxrilis saxiT:
axalSobili afgaris qula (1 wT) afgaris qula (5 wT)
1 10 10
2 3 6
3 8 9
4 9 10
5 8 9
6 9 10
7 8 9
8 8 9
9 8 9
10 8 9
11 7 9
12 8 9
13 6 9
14 8 10
15 9 10
16 9 10
216
17 9 10
18 9 9
19 8 10
20 9 9
21 3 3
22 9 9
23 7 10
24 10 10
spirmenis rangobrivi korelaciis koeficienti ganimarteba Cveu-
lebrivi korelaciis koeficientis msgavsad, mxolod im gansxvavebiT,
rom L sidideebi iTvleba monacemTa rangebisaTvis da ara TviT monace-
mebisaTvis:
yy xx
xy
S
L L
L
r
= . (14.25)
am koeficientis ganxilvis azrianoba dafuZnebulia im faqtze,
rom Tu X da Y sididebs Soris korelacia srulia, anu r = 1, maSin r
S
= 1 da roca r < 1 Sesabamisad, r
S
< 1. r
S
-is gamosaTvlelad monacemebis
cxrils mivaweroT Sesabamisi rangebis svetebi:
axalS-
obili
qula (1 wT) qula (5 wT) rangi (1 wT) rangi (5 wT)
1 10 10 23.5 19.5
2 3 6 1.5 2.0
3 8 9 10.0 8.5
4 9 10 18.5 19.5
5 8 9 10.0 8.5
6 9 10 18.5 19.5
7 8 9 10.0 8.5
8 8 9 10.0 8.5
9 8 9 10.0 8.5
10 8 9 10.0 8.5
11 7 9 4.5 8.5
12 8 9 10.0 8..5
13 6 9 3.0 8.5
14 8 10 10.0 19.5
15 9 10 18.5 19.5
16 9 10 18.5 19.5
17 9 10 18.5 19.5
18 9 9 18.5 8.5
19 8 10 10.0 19.5
20 9 9 18.5 8.5
21 3 3 1.5 1.0
22 9 9 18.5 8.5
23 7 10 4.5 19.5
24 10 10 23.5 19.5
217
1
24
R =1000/24
2
24
R =300/24
am sidideebs Soris korelaciis koeficientis gamoTvla gvaZl-
evs r
S
= 0.593. amitom rac Cven gvainteresebs aris is, Tu ramdenad mni-
Svnelovania es Sedegi. mtkicdeba, rom
2
1
2
S
S
S
r
n r
T

= (14.26)
statistikas aqvs t(n-2)-ganawileba da amitom kavSiris mniSvnelovnebis
S
statistikis
dakvirvebuli t
S
-t
n-2, 1-o/2
< t
S
< t
n-2, 1-o/2
,
0
hipoTezis (niSanTa damoukideblob-
is hipoTezis) uaryofis safuZveli ar gvaqvs, xolo winaaRmdeg SemTx-
vevaSi, mas uarvyofT. kriteriumis Sesabamisi p-mniSvneloba gamoiTvle-
ba Semdegi wesiT:
p = 2P{ t
n-2
< t
S
}, Tu t
S
< 0 da p = 2P{ t
n-2
> t
S
}, Tu t
S
> 0.
kriteriumis gamoyeneba SeiZleba mxolod maSin, roca n > 10.
davubrundeT 14.5 magaliTs da vnaxoT ras mogvcems kriteriumi.
am SemTxvevaSi, n = 24, r
S
= 0.593, amitom statistikis dakvirvebuli
mniSvneloba tolia:
t
S
= (0.59322
1/2
)/(1-0.593
2
)
1/2
= 3.45.
t(22)-ganawilebis cxrilebidan gvaqvs: t
22, 0.995
= 2.819 da t
22, 0.9995
=
3.792, saidanac davaskvniT, rom
0.001 = 2(1-0.9995) < p < 2(1-0.995) = 0.01
da maSasadame, dakvirvebadi qulebis rangebs Soris aris mniSvnelovani
korelacia.
SevniSnoT, rom Tu darRveulia piroba iyeneben specialur
cxrilebs, romlis mixedviTac r
S
dardeba o mniSvnelovnebis donis
kritikul c mniSvnelobas da niSanTa damoukideblobis H
0
hipoTzas
uaryofen, Tuki | r
S
| > c.
amocanebi
1. Seswavlil iqna 28 mozardis kbilis garsis anTebis (periodo-
ntitis) doneebs Soris sxvaoba dantisturi programis win da misi Ca-
tarebidan eqvsi Tvis Semdeg. aRmoCnda, rom 15 avadmyofis mdgomareoba
gaumjobesda, 8-isa gauaresda da 5-isa ucvleli darCa. ra SeiZleba
iTqvas programis dadebiT mxareze?
2. davuSvaT wina amocanaSi cvlileba aRiricxeba Svid balian
skalaSi (-3-dan 3-mde), sadac 3 da -3 Sesabamisad, niSnavs gaumjobese-
218
bisa da gauaresebis umaRles xarisxebs, 0 ki, ucvlel statuss da
miviReT Semdegi monacemebi:
cvlilebis xarisxi avadmyofTa raodenoba
+3 4
+2 5
+1 6
0 5
-1 4
-2 2
-3 2
2.1. romeli statistikuri kriteriumi unda gamoviyenoT imisaTvis,
rom davadginoT mdgomareobis gaumjobesebis sakiTxi?
2.2. rogoria 2.1-is Sesabamisi kriteriumis p-mniSvneloba?
3. davuSvaT, mocemulia ori amokrefa, romelTa moculobebia 6
da 7 da rangTa jami pirvel amokrefaSi tolia 58-is. uilkoksonis
rangTa jamebis kriteriumis gamoyenebiT daadgineT Sedegis mniSvnelov-
nebis sakiTxi.
4. cxovelebis qcevis Sesaswavlad Seqmnilia qcevis gazomvis me-
Todebi. gazomili iyo katebis TamaSisa da devnis qulebi. Ees qulebi
warmodgenilia cxrilSi:
TamaSi 2 6 8 4 7 5 10 3 1 9
devna 6.5 8 4 1 5 9 10 2 3 6.5
4.1. gamoTvaleT spirmenis korelaciis koeficienti;
4.2. CamoayalibeT statistikuri hipoTeza, romelic saWiroa imisaTvis,
rom SevamowmoT, mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba Tu ara es koeficienti
nulisagan.
5. arsebobs azri, rom leqciebze daswreba da saboloo Sefaseba
korelaciaSia. aRricxuli iyo 12 studentis daswreba da gamocdaze
miRebuli qulebi:
Ggacdenebi 22 6 1 8 6 11 10 6 10 0 5 10
gamocdis qula 72 88 99 68 66 77 52 78 76 96 91 86
5.1. am monacemebisaTvis ipoveT korelaciis koeficienti;
5.2. SeamowmeT mniSnelovnad gansxvavdeba Tu ara es koeficienti nuli-
sagan;
5.3. ra daskvnas gaakeTebT gacdenebisa da gamocdis qulebs Soris kavS-
irze.
6. SeiZleba Tu ara viwinaswarmetyveloT saboloo Sefaseba Sua-
leduri gamocdis Sefasebis mixedviT?
Sualeduri qula 87 89 97 80 73 85 81 74 80 89
saboloo qula 84 91 96 87 66 90 79 80 89 86
6.1. daxazeT gabnevis diagrama;
219
6.2. SeamowmeT mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba Tu ara korelaciis koefici-
enti nulisagan.
6.3. ra daskvnas gaakeTebT qulebis kavSiris Sesaxeb?
7. rogoria kavSiri fizikur momxibvlelobasa da popularobas
Soris sabavSvo baRis aRsazrdel bavSvebSi? 12 gogonasa da 14 biWis
Sefasebis Sedegad miiRes Semdegi rangebi:
Ggogonebi
fizikuri mimzidveloba 3 6 2 9 12 1 7 8 4 10 5 11
popularoba 1 7 3 10 11 3 8 7 5 9 6 12
biWebi
mimzidveloba 5 11 3 9 4 8 12 1 14 10 6 13 2 7
popularoba 9 1 10 4 6 12 5 13 8 14 2 11 7 3
7.1. ra daskvnas akeTebT gogonebSi momxibvlelobasa da popularobis
rangebs Soris kavSiris Sesaxeb?
7.2. ra daskvnas akeTebT biWebSi momxibvlelobasa da popularobis ra-
ngebs Soris kavSiris Sesaxeb?
8. ra gavlenas axdens kompiuteris ekranis xangrZlivad yureba
aRqmis unarze?
dro (sT) 0.5 1.7 4.2 6.0 2.8 5.3 0.9
aRqma (sm) 4.3 3.1 2.1 0.4 6.3 3.7 1.6
SerCevis safuZvelze ra daskvnas akeTebT kompiuterTan muSaobis saaT-
ebsa da siRrmis aRqmis Secdomas Soris kavSiris Sesaxeb?
9. mozardebis skoliT kmayofilebasTan dakavSirebuli faqtore-
bis Sesaswavlad, gamokiTxuli iyo 10 moswavle. erT-erTi cvladi iyo
skolasTan dakavSirebuli yoveldRiuri uaryofiTi movlenebis raoden-
oba.
uaryofiTi movlenebi 7 14 8 19 6 10 17 7 12 17
skoliT kmayofileba 34 14 24 15 29 27 14 38 19 21
ra daskvnas akeTebT uaryofiTi movlenebis raodenobasa da skoliT
kmayofilebas Soris kavSiris Sesaxeb?
10. maswavlebelma Seamowma sakontrolos formis gavlena mosw-
avleTa codnaze. gavlena gamoixateboda moswavleebis mier sakontro-
lo gamokiTxvaze miRebul niSnebSi. amisaTvis, maswavlebelma erTidai-
mave masalis gamoyenebiT Seadgina sakontrolo samuSao da testi. mox-
da moswavleebis daxarisxeba ori kategoriis mixedviT: Seasrula dava-
leba, ver Seasrula davaleba.
sakontrolo
Seasrula ver Seasrula
Seasrula 6 2 21
testi
ver Seasrula 4 12
romeli kriteriumi unda gamoiyenoT Sesamowmeblad?
220
11. Catarda eqsperimenti, raTa SeemowmebinaT garkveul saxelmZ-
RvaneloSi arsebuli amocanaTa sistemis mizanmimarTuleba. am mizniT,
mocemul savarjiSoebTan dakavSirebiT, Seiswavles maswavebelTa azri
saswavlo wlis dasawyisSi da wlis bolos. imis gamo, rom maswavleb-
elTa azrebi aRmoCnda Zlier gansxvavebuli (maswavlebelTa erTi nawi-
li iTxovda savarjiSoebis raodenobis gazrdas, meore nawili ki _
Semcirebas), gadawyvites daxarisxebinaT gamokiTxvis Sedegebi or kate-
goriaSi: gaizardos da Semcirdes.
Ppirveli azri gaizardos gaizardos Semcirdes Semcirdes
Mmeore azri gaizardos Semcirdes gaizardos Semcirdes
masw. raod. 52 74 36 38
icvleba Tu ara maswavleblebis Sexeduleba wlis ganmavlobaSi?
12. iTvleba, rom maTematikis kursis Seswavla, xels uwyobs mo-
swavleebSi logikuri azrovnebis ganviTarebas, maSinac ki roca aRniSn-
uli azrovnebis formireba ar xdeba mizanmimarTulad. Semowmebis miz-
niT, orjer Catarda sakontrolo samuSao: seqtembris bolos da mais-
is bolos. aRniSnuli sakontroloebi dawera sxvadasxva skolidan Sem-
TxveviT SerCeulma 35-ma moswavlem. sakontroloebSi arsebuli daval-
ebebis amoxsna dafuZnebuli iyo logikuri azrovnebis unaris gamoyene-
baze. iyo SemuSavebuli Semdegi Sefaseba: sworad amoxsnili 1 an 2 am-
ocana _ qula 0, sworad amoxsnili 3 amocana _ qula 1, sworad
amoxsnili 4 amocana _ qula2, sworad amoxsnili 5 amocana _ qula
3.
pirveli Sefaseba 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0
meore Sefaseba 1 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 3 1
maTematikis Seswavla uwyobs xels Tu ara logikuri azrovnebis Camo-
yalibebas?
13. eqsperimentatorebma Seiswavles Tu ra gavlenas axdens gark-
veuli filmis yureba, moswavlis mier garkveuli masalis aTvisebaze.
moswavleebis mier aTvisebis donis Sesamowmeblad Caatares sakontro-
loebi, romelic gaTvlili iyo saSualo moswavleze. aRniSnuli sakon-
troloebi Catarda erTsa da imave 12 moswavleze, mocemuli filmis
yurebamde da filmis yurebis Semdeg.
swori pasuxebis raodenoba
I Semowmeba 3 8 4 5 4 5 6 7
II Semowmeba 4 8 6 6 2 6 10 7
SeamowmeT hipoTeza: filmis yureba ar cvlis masalis aTvisebas. gamoi-
yeneT vilkoksonis kriteriumi.
13. erTerTi qalaqis or skolaSi Seamowmes me_8 klaselTa mi-
er, savarjiSoebis Sesrulebis unari. Semowmeba moxda specialurad Se-
dgenili savarjiSoebis daxmarebiT. Mmaqsimaluri qula _ 10, minimalu-
221
ri _ 1. orive skolaSi daTvlili iyo sixSireebi miRebuli qulebis
Sesabamisad.
qulebi 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
I skola 2 1 3 4 6 5 4 1 2 -
II skola 1 2 3 7 3 5 3 - 2 -
medianuri kriteriumis gamoyenebiT SeamowmeT gansxvavdeba Tu ara erT-
maneTisagan sxvadasxva skolis moswavleTa unarebis done.
14. Catarebuli iyo eqsperimenti saukeTeso saxelmZRvanelos ga-
movlenis mizniT. anketis erTi kiTxva iyo Semdegi: ramdenad SesaZlebe-
lia mocemuli saxelmZRvaneloTi aiTviso is masala, romelic maswav-
lebels ar auxsnia (savaraudo pasuxebia: ki _ ara). Aaseve moxda, im
weriTi namuSevrebis Sedegebis Sedareba, romelTa daxmarebiTac Semowm-
da mocemuli kursis erT-erTi nawilis aTvisebis done.
Kki ara
skola # 1 15 5
skola # 2 7 8
gansxvdeba Tu ara ori skolis maswavlebelTa azri erTmaneTisagan?
222
danarTi (statistikuri cxrilebi)
puasonis ganawilebis cxrilebi ( ( )
!
k
P k e
k
i
i

= )
i = 1.0 i = 1.5 i = 2.0 i = 2.5 i = 3.0 i = 3.5 i = 4.0
i =
4.5
i = 5.0
p(0) 0.3679 0.2231 0.1353 0.0821 0.0498 0.0302 0.0183 0.0111 0.0067
p(1) 0.3679 0.3347 0.2707 0.2052 0.1494 0.1057 0.0733 0.0500 0.0337
p(2) 0.1839 0.2510 0.2707 0.2565 0.2240 0.1850 0.1465 0.1125 0.0842
p(3) 0.0613 0.1255 0.1804 0.2138 0.2240 0.2158 0.1954 0.1687 0.1404
p(4) 0.0153 0.0471 0.0902 0.1336 0.1680 0.1888 0.1954 0.1898 0.1755
p(5) 0.0031 0.0141 0.0361 0.0668 0.1008 0.1322 0.1563 0.1708 0.1755
p(6) 0.0005 0.0035 0.0120 0.0278 0.0504 0.0771 0.1042 0.1281 0.1462
p(7) 0.0001 0.0008 0.0034 0.0099 0.0216 0.0385 0.0595 0.0824 0.1044
p(8) 0.0001 0.0009 0.0031 0.0081 0.0169 0.0298 0.0463 0.0653
p(9) 0.0002 0.0009 0.0027 0.0066 0.0132 0.0232 0.0363
p(10) 0.0002 0.0008 0.0023 0.0053 0.0104 0.0181
p(11) 0.0002 0.0007 0.0019 0.0043 0.0082
p(12) 0.0001 0.0002 0.0006 0.0016 0.0034
p(13) 0.0001 0.0002 0.0006 0.0013
p(14) 0.0001 0.0002 0.0005
p(15) 0.0001 0.0002
standartuli normaluri ganawilebis zeda o -kritikuli
wertilebi ( z
o
)
o
0.1 0.05 0.025 0.125 0.01 0.005 0.0025 0.001
z
o
1.28 1.64 1.96 2.24 2.33 2.57 2.81 3.08
223
(0.1) N -is simkvrivis (
2
/ 2
1
( )
2
z
z e
t

= ) mniSvnelobebi
224
(0.1) N -is ganawilebis funqciis (
}
t
= u

x
t
dt e x
2
2
2
1
) ( ) mniSvnelobebi
225
2
2
0
0
1
( )
2
z t
z e dt
t

u =
}
funqciis cxrilebi
226
t (stiudentis) ganawilebis zeda o -kritikuli wertilebi (
,n
t
o
)
n 0.1 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 0.0025 0.001

1
3.078 6.314 12.706 31.821 63.656 127.321 318.289
2
1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 14.089 22.328
3
1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841 7.453 10.214
4
1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604 5.598 7.173
5
1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032 4.773 5.894
6
1.440 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707 4.317 5.208
7
1.415 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499 4.029 4.785
8
1.397 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355 3.833 4.501
9
1.383 1.833 2.262 2.821 3.250 3.690 4.297
10
1.372 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169 3.581 4.144
11
1.363 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106 3.497 4.025
12
1.356 1.782 2.179 2.681 3.055 3.428 3.930
13
1.350 1.771 2.160 2.650 3.012 3.372 3.852
14
1.345 1.761 2.145 2.624 2.977 3.326 3.787
15
1.341 1.753 2.131 2.602 2.947 3.286 3.733
16
1.337 1.746 2.120 2.583 2.921 3.252 3.686
17
1.333 1.740 2.110 2.567 2.898 3.222 3.646
18
1.330 1.734 2.101 2.552 2.878 3.197 3.610
19
1.328 1.729 2.093 2.539 2.861 3.174 3.579
20
1.325 1.725 2.086 2.528 2.845 3.153 3.552
21
1.323 1.721 2.080 2.518 2.831 3.135 3.527
22
1.321 1.717 2.074 2.508 2.819 3.119 3.505
23
1.319 1.714 2.069 2.500 2.807 3.104 3.485
24
1.318 1.711 2.064 2.492 2.797 3.091 3.467
25
1.316 1.708 2.060 2.485 2.787 3.078 3.450
26
1.315 1.706 2.056 2.479 2.779 3.067 3.435
27
1.314 1.703 2.052 2.473 2.771 3.057 3.421
28
1.313 1.701 2.048 2.467 2.763 3.047 3.408
29
1.311 1.699 2.045 2.462 2.756 3.038 3.396
30
1.310 1.697 2.042 2.457 2.750 3.030 3.385
227
t ganawilebis zeda / 2 o -kritikuli wertilebi
, / 2 n
t
o
(orkudiani)
n A
o
0.80
0.20
0.90
0.10
0.95
0.05
0.98
0.02
0.99
0.01
0.995
0.005
0.998
0.002
0.999
0.001
1 3.0786.31412.70631.82063.657127.321318.309636.619
2 1.8862.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 14.089 22.327 31.599
3 1.6382.353 3.182 4.541 5.841 7.453 10.215 12.924
4 1.5332.132 2.776 3.747 4.604 5.598 7.173 8.610
5 1.4762.015 2.571 3.365 4.032 4.773 5.893 6.869
6 1.4401.943 2.447 3.143 3.707 4.317 5.208 5.959
7 1.4151.895 2.365 2.998 3.499 4.029 4.785 5.408
8 1.3971.860 2.306 2.897 3.355 3.833 4.501 5.041
9 1.3831.833 2.262 2.821 3.250 3.690 4.297 4.781
10 1.3721.812 2.228 2.764 3.169 3.581 4.144 4.587
11 1.3631.796 2.201 2.718 3.106 3.497 4.025 4.437
12 1.3561.782 2.179 2.681 3.055 3.428 3.930 4.318
13 1.3501.771 2.160 2.650 3.012 3.372 3.852 4.221
14 1.3451.761 2.145 2.625 2.977 3.326 3.787 4.140
15 1.3411.753 2.131 2.602 2.947 3.286 3.733 4.073
16 1.3371.746 2.120 2.584 2.921 3.252 3.686 4.015
17 1.3331.740 2.110 2.567 2.898 3.222 3.646 3.965
18 1.3301.734 2.101 2.552 2.878 3.197 3.610 3.922
19 1.3281.729 2.093 2.539 2.861 3.174 3.579 3.883
20 1.3251.725 2.086 2.528 2.845 3.153 3.552 3.850
21 1.3231.721 2.080 2.518 2.831 3.135 3.527 3.819
22 1.3211.717 2.074 2.508 2.819 3.119 3.505 3.792
23 1.3191.714 2.069 2.500 2.807 3.104 3.485 3.768
24 1.3181.711 2.064 2.492 2.797 3.090 3.467 3.745
25 1.3161.708 2.060 2.485 2.787 3.078 3.450 3.725
26 1.3151.706 2.056 2.479 2.779 3.067 3.435 3.707
27 1.3141.703 2.052 2.473 2.771 3.057 3.421 3.690
28 1.3131.701 2.048 2.467 2.763 3.047 3.408 3.674
29 1.3111.699 2.045 2.462 2.756 3.038 3.396 3.659
30 1.3101.697 2.042 2.457 2.750 3.030 3.385 3.646
1.2821.645 1.960 2.326 2.576 2.807 3.090 3.291
228
2
_ (xi kvadrat) ganawilebis zeda o -kritikuli wertilebi (
2
,n o
_ )
229
( , ) F n m (fiSeris) ganawilebis zeda o -kritikuli wertilebi (
, , n m
F
o
)
230
( , ) F n m (fiSeris) ganawilebis zeda o -kritikuli wertilebi (
, , n m
F
o
)
231
Iv. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University
Faculty of Exact and Natural Sciences
Syllabus
Title of the
Course
Probability and Mathematical Statistics for Chemistry,
Biology, and Life Sciences
Code of the
curse
Status of the
course
The obligatory one term is provided for the undergraduate
students of Faculty of Biology and Life Sciences
ECTS 6 credits: 60 contact hours (lecture 30, practical works 30,
Laboratory works) 90 hours for the independent work
Lecturers Prof. Omar Purtukhia, Iv. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State Univer-
sity, Faculty of Exact and Natural Sciences, Phone: 304145
(office), 189346 (home), 899503082 (mobil) e-mail:
omar.purtukhia@tsu.ge; o.purtukhia@gmail.com
Prof. Zurab Tsigroshvili, Georgian Tekhnical University,
Georgian-American University, Phone: 304145 (office),
899317024 (mobil), e-mail: zurats@rambler.ru
Dr.Qetevan Manjgaladze, invited lecturer, Iv. Javakhishvili
Tbilisi State University, Faculty of Exact and Natural Scie-
nces, Phone: 304145 (office), 968771 (home), e-mail:
kmanjgaladze@gmail.com
The aim of
the course
The aim of this lecture-notes is to give the students of Chem-
istry, Biology and Life sciences the skills for working with
real data coming from corresponding field.
Pre-request Advanced Mathematics, Part I Calculus
Format of the
course
Lecture, Practical work, Laboratory work
contents of
the course
Lecture1. Subject of statistics. Population and sample. Pro-
blems of Descriptive and Inferential Statistics. Types of Da-
ta. Graphical representation of Data. Problems. (s. [1], Chap.
I.1-I.3, I.6; [2], Chap. 2, 1-2; [4], Chap. 1-2)
2h lecture, 2h practical work
Lecture2. Sample characteristics of Data. Measures of ce-
ntral location. Measures of spread. Some properties of samp-
le characteristics. Mathed observations. Correlation. Probl-
ems. (s. [1], Chap. I.7-I.9; [2], Chap. 3, 1-3; [4], Chap. 3)
Lecture3. Elements of Probability Theory. Random exper-
iment, Probability space, Random Events, Random Variabl-
es. Definition of Probability. Properties of Probabilities. Co-
nditional Probabilities. The Multiplicative Law of Probabili-
232
ty. Independence of the events. Complete Probability and
Bayess formula. Problems. (s. [1], Chap. II.1-II.2; [2], Chap.
4, 1-5; [3], Chap. I.1-I.2; [4], Chap. 5)
Lecture4. Discrete Random Variables and Distributions.
Probability Mass and Distribution Functions for a Discrete
Random Variables. The expected value and variance of rand-
om variables. Permutations and Combinations. The Binomial
and Poisson Distributions and Their Connection. Problems.
(s. [1], Chap. II.3-II.4; [2], Chap. 5, 1-6; [3], Chap. I.3-I.4;
[4], Chap. 6)
Lecture5. Continuous Random Variables and Distributi-
ons. Continuous random variables and their distribution. De-
nsity function. Normal Random Variables. Approximations
of Binomial and Poisson Distributions. Problems. (s. [1],
Chap. II.5-II.6; [2], Chap. 6, 1-4; [3], Chap. I.5-I.7; [4],
Chap. 7)
Lecture6. Estimation Theory. The Point Estimation. The
point estimators. Central Limit Theorem. Estimation for the
Binomial Distribution. Estimation for the Poisson Distributi-
on. Problems. (s. [1], Chap. III.5-III.4; [2], Chap. 7, 1-5;
[3], Chap. II.1)
Lecture7. Estimation Theory. The Interval Estimation.
Estimation of the Population Mean and Variance. Interval es-
timation of the variance of the Normal population. Interval
Estimation for the Binomial Distribution. Interval Estimation
for the Poisson Distribution. Problems. (s. [1], Chap. III.5;
[2], Chap. 8, 1-4; [3], Chap. II.1-II.3; [4], Chap. 8)
Lecture8. Hypothesis Testing: One-sample Inference.
One-sample Test for the Mean of a Normal Distribution with
Known Variance. One-sample Test for the Mean of a Norm-
al Distribution with Unknown Variance. The Power Calcula-
tion. Sample-size determination. One-sample Test for the
Variance of a Normal Distribution. Hypothesis Testing for
the Binomial Distribution. Hypothesis Testing for the Poiss-
on Distribution. Problems. (s. [1], Chap. III.6; [2], Chap. 9,
1-8; [3], Chap. II.4-II.8; [4], Chap. 9)
Lecture9. Hypothesis Testing: Two-sample Inference.
The Paired t Test. Two-sample t Test for the Normal Means
with Equal Unknown Variances. Test for equality of the No-
233
rmal Variances. Two-sample t Test for the Normal Means
with Unequal Variances. Sample-size determination. Probl-
ems. (s. [1], Chap. III.7; [2], Chap. 10, 1-6; [3], Chap. II.9-
II.10; [4], Chap. 10)
Lecture10. Multi-sample Inference Analysis of Variance
(ANOVA). Hypothesis Testing in One-way ANOVA model
with fixed effects. Comparisons of specific groups in One-
way ANOVA. Linear contrasts. Multiple Comparisons (Bon-
feronis and Sheppes Methods). Hypothesis Testing in One-
way ANOVA model with random effects. Problems. (s. [1],
Chap. III.8; [2], Chap. 11, 1-6; [3], Chap. II.19; [4], Chap.
12)
Lecture11. Two-sample Problems for Binomial Proporti-
ons. Categorical Data. Comparison of two binomial propor-
tions Normal approximation. Comparison of two binomial
proportions 22 Contingency Table. 22 Contingency Tab-
le for independence. Problems. (s. [1], Chap. III.9; [2], Chap.
12, 1-2; [3], Chap. II.11; [4], Chap. 10)
Lecture12. Categorical Data. Measures of Effect for Categ-
orical Data. Fishers exact Test. Two-sample Test for Bino-
mial Proportions for Matched-Pair Data McNemars Test.
Problems. (s. [1], Chap. III.9; [2], Chap. 12, 3-5; [3], Chap.
II.9-II.11; [4], Chap. 10)
Lecture13. Categorical Data. Estimation of Sample Size
and Power for Comparing of Two Binomial Proportions. rc
Contingency Tables. _
2
-Goodness-of-fit Test. Problems. (s.
[1], Chap. III.10-III.11; [2], Chap. 12, 6-8; [3], Chap. II.14-
II.16; [4], Chap. 12)
Lecture14. Regression and Correlation Methods. General
concepts. Fitting Regression Lines The Method of Least
Squares. Inference About Parameters from Regression Lines.
Interval Estimation for Linear Regression. The Correlation
Coefficient. Statistical Inference for Correlation Coefficients.
Partial and Multiple correlation. Multiple Logistic Regressi-
on. Problems. (s. [1], Chap. III.13; [2], Chap. 13, 1-11; [3],
Chap. II.17-II.18; [4], Chap. 11)
Lecture15. Nonparametric Methods. The Sign Test. The
Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test. The Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test.
234
The Kruskal-Wallis Test. Spearmans Rank Correlation Coe-
fficient. Problems. (s. [1], Chap. III.12; [2], Chap. 14, 1-7;
[3], Chap. II.18)
References
1. O. Purtukhia. Descriptive Statistics, Probability and Infer-
ential Statistics. Tbilisi, 2008.
Duxbury, 1995.
3. O. Purtukhia. Probability and Statistics in Examples and
Problems. Tbilisi, 2009.
4. Allan G. Bluman. Ementary Statistics: a brief version, sec-
ond edition. Published by McGraw-Hill, New York, 2003.
Grades 100 points grades are used:
1. two written tutorials with three questions each up to five
points;
2. students activity at practical and laboratory works up to
20 points;
3. attendance at lectures and practical works up to 10 points;
4. final written exam with four questions each up to 10
points.
Exam
prerequest
Within the first three parameters of grades students have to
earn at least 30 points and to take part at least at one tutorial.
Grading
scheme
Attendance 10%
Participation in tutorials (2x15) 30%
Activities at practical (15%) and laboratory
works (5%)
20%
Final exam 40%
Final grade 100%
Obligatory
literature
1. O. Purtukhia. Descriptive Statistics, Probability and Infer-
ential Statistics (in Georgian). Tbilisi, 2008.
Duxbury, 1995.
3. O. Purtukhia. Probability and Statistics in Examples and
Problems (in Georgian). Tbilisi, 2009.
4. Allan G. Bluman. Ementary Statistics: a brief version, se-
cond edition. Published by McGraw-Hill, New York, 2003.
Additional
literature
1. G. Mania. Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics
(in Georgian). TSU, Tbilisi, 1976.
2. N. Lazrieva, M. Mania, G. Mari, A. Mosidze, A. Toronja-
dze, T. Toronjadze, T. Shervashidze. Probability Theory and
Mathematical Statistics for Economics (in Georgian). Found-
235
ation of Evrazia, Tbilisi, 2000.
3. E. Nadaraya, R. Absava, M. Patsatsia. Probability Theory
(in Georgian). Tbilisi, 2009.
4. O. Purtukhia. Probability Theory and Mathematical Stati-
stics (in Georgian). Tbilisi, 2007.
5. P. Newbold, W. L. Carlson, B. M. Thorne. Statistics for
Business and Economics, sixth edition. Prentice Hall, Upper
Saddle River, New Jersey, 2007.
6. V. Feller. Introduction in Probability Theory and Applicat-
ion,. vol. I, II (in Russian). Moscow, 1967.
Results of
study
As a result we expect that based on the statistical tools stud-
ents could derive analysis of their data and could derive cor-
rect conclusions.
236
sagnobrivi saZiebeli
albaToba, 15
albaTobaTa gamoklebis wesi, 52
albaTobaTa gamravlebis wesi,
53, 54
albaTobaTa Sekrebis wesi, 51, 52
albaTobis aqsiomaturi safuZve-
li, 51
albaTurad damoukidebeli, 54
albaTuri sivrce, 47
alternatiuli hipoTeza, 104
amovardnili monacemebi (outlier),
33
amokrefa, 19
aposterioruli albaToba, 57
aprioruli albaToba, 57
arabalansirebuli SemTxveva, 147
araparametruli hipoTeza, 104
ar aris kavSiri, 39
arawrfivi kavSiri, 39
aRweriTi statistika, 15
atributuli monacemebi, 20
aucilebeli xdomiloba, 49
baiesis formula, 57
balansirebuli SemTxveva, 147
beitsonis magaliTi, 157
berens-fiSeris problema, 126
bernulis SemTxveviT sidide, 91
bimodaluri SerCeva, 31
binomuri ganawileba, 67
bonferonis statistikuri kri-
teriumi, 145
boqsploti (boxplot), 33
gabnevis diagrama, 39
gadanacvleba, 65
gadauadgilebadi (Caunacvlebe-
li) Sefaseba, 87
gadaxra jgufis SigniT, 137
gaerTianeba, 48
gamoZaxili (prognozi), 187
wertilovani Sefasebebi, 85
ganawilebis kanoni, 61
ganawilebis mediana, 210
ganawilebis simkvrive, 74
ganawilebis funqcia, 64, 74
ganSrevebuli SemTxveviTi SerCe-
va, 16
gafantulobis diagrama, 187
dadebiTad korelirebuli, 199
dadebiTad wanacvlebuli (asime-
triuli), 31
dadebiTi wrfivi kavSiri, 39
dakvirvebuli SeuRlebis cxri-
li, 155, 177
damatebiTi xdomiloba, 48
damoukidebeli SemTxveviTi sid-
ideebi, 63
determinaciis koeficienti, 193
decili (decile), 32
did ricxvTa kanoni, 5, 88
diskordantuli wyvili, 170
diskretizacia, 23
diskretuli albaTuri sivrce,
47
diskretuli monacemebi, 20
diskretuli SemTxveviTi sidi-
de, 60
dispersia, 63
elementaruli xdomiloba, 47
empiriuli ganawilebis funqcia,
21
erTfaqtoriani ANOVA modeli,
136
erTfaqtoriani dispersiuli an-
alizi, 135
efeqturi Sefaseba, 89
F-kriteriumi, 125
varianti, 22, 29
variaciuli mwkrivi, 21
venis diagramebi, 49
vulfis meTodi, 165
237
zrdadobis Tviseba, 51
zusti meTodi, 211
Tavisuflebis xarisxi, 96
Tanabari ganawileba, 74
TanakveTa, 48
Tanxmobis amocana, 182
Tanxmobis Fkriteriumi, 192
Tanxmobis t-kriteriumi., 193
Tanxmobis _
2
kriteriumi, 182
kategoria (klasi), 23
kvartilTSorisi gabnevis diapa-
zoni (Interquartial range), 32
klasteruli SerCeva, 16
kombinatorikis elementebi, 66
kovariaciis koeficienti, 199
konkordantuli wyvili, 170
korelaciis Teoria, 186
korelaciis kerZo koeficienti,
204
korelaciis koeficienti, 40, 199
kraskel-uolisis kriteriumi,
219
kriteriumis mniSvnelovnebis
done, 106
kriteriumis simZlavre, 106, 110
logisturi gardaqmna, 204
logisturi regresia, 186
logisturi regresiis modeli,
204
maTematikuri lodini, 62, 75
maTematikuri statistika, 6
maknemaris kriteriumi, 170
man-uitnis kriteriumi, 217
marginaluri sveti, 154
marginaluri striqoni, 154
martivi SemTxveviTi SerCeva, 85
martivi SerCeva, 16
marjvniv asimetriuli ganawile-
ba, 32
mendelis kanoni, 158
II gvaris Secdomis albaToba,
105
meore kvartili, 32
mesame kvartili, 32
misadagebis wiri, 39, 40
mosalodneli SeuRlebis cxri-
li, 155, 177
mravlobiTi korelaciis koefi-
cienti, 204
mravlobiTi Sedarebis kriteri-
umi, 144
naSTTa analizi martivi wrfivi
regresiisaTvis, 197
naSTiTi komponenti (wevri), 190
naSTiT wevrTa kvadratebis ja-
mi, 191
ndobis albaToba, 95
ndobis intervali, 94
ndobis intervalebi regresiis
parametrebisaTvis, 194
ndobis intervalebi regresiis
prognozebisaTvis, 195
niSanTa damoukidebloba, 154
niSanTa damoukideblobis
amocana, 178
niSnebis kriteriumi, 209
nominaluri tipis monacemebi, 20
normaluri SemTxveviTi sidide,
76
nulovani hipoTeza, 104
oramokrefiani amocana, 120
ordinaluri skala, 212
ordinaluri tipis monacemebi,
20
ormxrivi alternativa, 106
parametruli hipoTeza, 104
p-mniSvneloba, 114
p-rigis kvantili, 79
p rigis procentili, 32
I gvaris Secdomis albaToba, 105
pirveli kvartili (quartile), 32
pirobiTi albaToba, 53
pirobiTi maTematikuri lodini,
187
238
placebo, 17, 19
poligoni, 25
populacia, 16
populaciaTa erTgvarovnebis am-
ocana, 178
populaciis SerCeva (amorCeva),
15
procentili, 32
procentilebi (percentiles), 32
prognozireba, 187
proporciaTa erTgvarovnebis am-
ocana, 154
procentuli rangi, 33
puasonis ganawileba, 69
rangi, 21, 33
rangobrivi kriteriumebi, 209
regresiis komponentTa kvadrat-
ebis jami, 191
regresiis komponenti, 190
regresiis funqcia (wiri), 187
regresiis wrfe, 186
regresiuli analizi, 40, 186
regresiuli analizis amocana,
187
regresiuli modelebi, 187
rekursiuli (rekurentuli) ga-
daTvlis wesi, 68, 70
reprezentatuli amokrefa, 19
retrospeqtiuli gamokvleva,
166
riskebis sxvaoba, 163
satertvaitis meTodi, 126
simetriuli SerCeva, 31
sistematuri SerCeva, 16
sixSire, 22, 29
sixSireTa mdgradoba, 4
spirmenis rangobrivi korelaci-
is koeficienti, 223
sruli albaTobis formula, 56
sruli (mTeli) kvadratebis ja-
mi, 191
standartizacia, 78
standartuli gadaxra, 63
standartuli normaluri ganaw-
ileba, 78
standartuli normaluri cxri-
lebi, 78
statistikis araparametruli
meTodebi, 208
statistikurad mniSvnelovani,
114
statistikurad umniSvnelo, 114
statistikuri daskvnebi, 15
statistikuri daskvnebis Teo-
ria, 15, 17
statistikuri mdgradoba, 4
statistikuri kriteriumi, 107,
113, 121, 123, 138, 142, 148
statistikuri hipoTeza, 104
stacionaruli procesi, 69
stiudentis ganawileba, 96
t -ganawileba Tavisuflebis
xarisxiT n, 96
t kriteriumi, 125, 135
t-kriteriumis meTodologia, 135
trendi, 181
trimodaluri SerCeva, 31
ualbaTesi ricxvi, 67
uaryofiTad korelirebuli, 199
uaryofiTad wanacvlebuli (asi-
metriuli) SerCeva, 31
uaryofiTi wrfivi kavSiri, 39
uTavsebadi, 47
uilkoksonis niSniani rangebis
kriteriumi, 211
uilkoksonis rangTa jamis kri-
teriumi, 214
umcires kvadratTa meTodi, 40,
188
unimodaluri SerCeva, 31
ucnobi parametris miaxloebiTi
mniSvneloba, 87
ucnobi parametris Sefaseba, 87
uwyveti albaTuri sivrce, 47
239
uwyveti ganawileba, 74
uwyveti tipis monacemebi, 20
fardobiT riski, 163
fardobiTi sixSire, 22
fiSeris ganawileba, 124
fiSeris zusti kriteriumi, 166
fiSeris kriteriumi, 167
foTlebiani Reroebis msgavsi
diagrama, 25
qvesimravle, 47
SemTxveviT efeqtebiani, erTfaq-
toriani ANOVA modeli, 147
SemTxveviTi eqsperimenti, 4, 46
SemTxveviTi sidide, 46, 60
SemTxveviTi sididis standarti-
zacia, 78
SemTxveviTi SerCeva, 16
SemTxveviTi SerCevis meTodi, 19
SemTxveviTi xdomiloba, 46
SerCeva, 16
SerCeviTi absoluturi gadaxra,
34
SerCeviTi dispersia, 34, 85
SerCeviTi variaciis koeficien-
ti, 36
SerCeviTi kovariaciis koeficie-
nti, 190
SerCeviTi mediana, 30
SerCeviTi moda, 31
SerCeviTi saSualo, 29, 85, 107
SerCeviTi standartuli gadax-
ra, 34
SerCevis diapazoni, 24, 31
Sesworebuli standartuli ga-
daxra, 34
Sesworebuli SerCeviTi disper-
sia, 34
SeuRlebis r c cxrilebi, 176
SeuRlebis cxrilis meTodi, 154
SeuZlebeli xdomiloba, 48
Sefaseba, 50
SefasebaTa efeqturobis Tviseba,
88
Sefasebis standartuli Secdo-
ma, 88
Sefasebis sqema, 87
Sefes statistikuri kriteriu-
mi, 146
Sidajgufuri variacia, 191
Canacvleba, 90
calmxrivi alternativa, 106
centraluri zRvariTi Teorema,
90
Zaldebuli (Zalmosili) Sefase-
ba, 87
warmomadgenlobiTi amokrefa, 19
wrfivi kontrasti, 141
wrfivi prediqtori, 205
wrfivi regresia, 185, 186
xdomiloba, 46
xdomilobaTa gaerTianeba, 48
xdomilobaTa namravli, 49
xdomilobaTa sruli sistema, 56
xdomilobaTa sxvaoba, 49
xdomilobaTa jami, 49
xdomilobis albaToba, 5, 50
xdomilobis indikatori, 210
xi kvadrat ganawilebis kanoni
Tavisuflebis xarisxiT n, 97
jgufTaSoris gadaxris sazomi,
137
jgufTaSorisi variacia, 191
jgufTaSorisi kvadratebis saS-
ualo, 138
jgufis SigniT kvadratebis
saSualo, 138
jufdeba, 65
hipergeometriuli ganawileba,
166
hipoTezaTa Semowmeba, 17
hipoTezis Semowmebis zusti me-
Todi, 114
histograma, 25
s a r C e v i
winasityvaoba ............................................................................................................... 3
Sesavali ............................................................................................................. 4
silabusi ......................................................................................................................... 7
I. aRweriTi statistika
l e q c i a 1. Tavi 1. statistikis sagani. populacia da
SerCeva. aRweriTi da daskvniTi statistikis amocanebi. .................
13
Tavi 2. monacemebis pirveladi damuSaveba.
2.1. monacemebis tipebi. ............................................................................................
2.2. monacemebis grafikuli warmodgena. .......................................................
amocanebi .........................................................................................................................
19
19
25
l e q c i a 2. Tavi 3. ricxviT monacemTa SerCeviTi max-
asiaTeblebi. .....................................................................................................................
3.1. saSualo yofaqcevis maxasiaTeblebi. ......................................................
3.2. SerCevis gafantulobis (ganfenilobis) maxasiaTeblebi. ........
3.3. SerCeviTi ricxviTi maxasiaTeblebis Tvisebebi. ...........................
3.4. dawyvilebuli monacemebi. korelacia. ...............................................
amocanebi .........................................................................................................................
27
27
30
35
36
39
II. albaTobis Teoria
l e q c i a 3. Tavi 4. albaTobis Teoriis elementebi. .
4.1. SemTxveviTi eqsperimenti, albaTuri sivrce, xdomiloba,
SemTxveviTi sidide. .................................................................................................
4.2. moqmedebebi xdomilobebze. ........................................................................
4.3. xdomilobis albaToba, albaTobaTa Tvisebebi. ..............................
4.4. pirobiTi albaToba. albaTobaTa gamravlebis wesi. xdomil-
obaTa damoukidebloba. ..........................................................................................
4.5. sruli albaTobisa da baiesis formulebi. ....................................
amocanebi .........................................................................................................................
44
44
45
47
50
52
54
l e q c i a 4. Tavi 5. diskretuli SemTxveviTi sidid-
eebi. ZiriTadi albaTuri ganawilebebi. .......................................................
5.1. SemTxveviTi sidideebi da maTi ricxviTi maxasiaTeblebi. .....
5.2. diskretuli SemTxveviTi sididis ganawilebis funqcia. .......
5.3. gadanacvlebebi da jufdebebi. .................................................................
5.4. binomuri ganawileba. .....................................................................................
5.5. puasonis ganawileba. ......................................................................................
5.6. kavSiri binomur da puasonis ganawilebebs Soris. ...................
amocanebi .........................................................................................................................
57
57
60
61
63
65
67
68
l e q c i a 5. Tavi 6. uwyveti SemTxveviTi sidideebi.
ZiriTadi albaTuri ganawilebebi. ...................................................................
6.1. uwyveti SemTxveviTi sidideebi da maTi ganawileba. .................
69
69
241
6.2. normaluri SemTxveviTi sidideebi (normaluri ganawileba).
6.3. binomuri da puasonis ganawilebebis aproqsimacia normalu-
ri ganawilebiT. ..........................................................................................................
amocanebi .........................................................................................................................
72
75
77
III. daskvniTi statistika
l e q c i a 6. Tavi 7. SefasebaTa Teoria. wertilovani
Sefasebebi. ......................................................................................................................
7.1. Sesavali. ................................................................................................................
7.2. wertilovani Sefasebebi. ............................................................................
7.3. centraluri zRvariTi Teorema. ............................................................
7.4. binomuri populaciis p parametris wertilovani Sefaseba.
7.5. puasonis populaciis parametris wertilovani Sefaseba.
amocanebi .........................................................................................................................
79
79
80
85
86
87
87
l e q c i a 7. Tavi 8. SefasebaTa Teoria. intervaluri
Sefasebebi. ......................................................................................................................
8.1. Sesavali. ................................................................................................................
8.2. populaciis saSualos intervaluri Sefasebebi. ........................
8.3. normaluri populaciis dispersiis intervaluri Sefaseba. .
8.4. binomuri populaciis p parametris intervaluri Sefaseba.
8.5. puasonis ganawilebis i parametris intervaluri Sefaseba.
amocanebi .........................................................................................................................
89
89
90
92
94
94
95
l e q c i a 8. Tavi 9. hipoTezaTa Semowmeba. erTamokr-
efiani amocanebi. ........................................................................................................
9.1. Sesavali, ZiriTadi cnebebi. ......................................................................
9.2. hipoTezis Semowmeba normaluri populaciis saSualosaTv-
is cnobili dispersiis dros. ..........................................................................
9.3. hipoTezis Semowmeba normaluri populaciis saSualosaTv-
is ucnobi dispersiis dros. .............................................................................
9.4. kriteriumis simZlavris gamoTvla. ....................................................
9.5. SerCevis minimaluri moculobis gansazRvra. ...............................
9.6. hipoTezis Semowmeba normaluri populaciis dispersiisaT-
vis (ormxrivi alternativa). ............................................................................
9.7. hipoTezis Semowmeba binomuri populaciis p parametris
Sesaxeb (ormxrivi alternativa). ...................................................................
9.8. hipoTezis Semowmeba puasonis populaciis parametris
Sesaxeb (mcire moculobis SerCevebisaTvis). ..........................................
amocanebi .........................................................................................................................
99
99
101
103
104
106
107
108
110
110
l e q c i a 9. Tavi 10. hipoTezaTa Semowmeba. oramokr-
efiani amocanebi. ........................................................................................................
10.1. Sesavali. ..............................................................................................................
10.2. dawyvilebuli monacemebi. ........................................................................
115
115
115
242
10.3. oramokrefiani t -kriteriumi toli, ucnobi dispersiebis
SemTxvevaSi. ...................................................................................................................
10.4. hipoTeza ori normaluri populaciis dispersiaTa tol-
obis Sesaxeb. ................................................................................................................
10.5. oramokrefiani t -kriteriumi aratoli dispersiebis SemT-
xvevaSi. .............................................................................................................................
10.6. SerCevaTa moculobebis gansazRvra. ori populaciis saS-
ualoebis Sedarebis kriteriumis simZlavre. .........................................
amocanebi .........................................................................................................................
117
119
120
122
124
l e q c i a 10. Tavi 11. mravalamokrefiani amocanebi.
dispersiuli analizi. ............................................................................................
11.1. Sesavali. ..............................................................................................................
11.2. hipoTezaTa Semowmeba erTfaqtorian ANOVA modelSi.
deterministuli efeqtebis SemTxveva. .........................................................
11.3. jgufTa Sedareba erTfaqtorian ANOVA modelSi. wyvil-
Ta Sedarebis t -kriteriumi. ...............................................................................
11.4. wrfivi kontrastebi. ...................................................................................
11.5. mravlobiTi Sedareba (bonferonisa da Sefes meTodebi). .....
11.6. hipoTezaTa Semowmeba erTfaqtorian ANOVA modelSi Se-
mTxveviTi efeqtebis dros. .................................................................................
amocanebi .........................................................................................................................
129
129
131
133
136
138
141
143
l e q c i a 11. Tavi 12. oramokrafiani amocanebi binom-
uri proporciebisaTvis. kategoruli monacemebi. .................................
12.1. Sesavali. ..............................................................................................................
12.2 ori binomuri proporciis Sedareba, normaluri aproqsima-
cia. .....................................................................................................................................
12.3 ori binomuri proporciis Sedareba, SeuRlebis 22 cxri-
li. ......................................................................................................................................
12.4. SeuRlebis 22 cxrili. niSanTa damoukidebloba. ..................
amocanebi .........................................................................................................................
145
145
146
148
151
153
l e q c i a 12.
12.5. kategoruli monacemebis efeqtebis sazomebi. .............................
12.6. fiSeris zusti kriteriumi. ...................................................................
12.7. maknemaris kriteriumi proporciebisaTvis dawyvilebul
monacemebSi. ...................................................................................................................
amocanebi .........................................................................................................................
156
159
162
165
l e q c i a 13.
12.8. SerCevis moculobis gansazRvra da kriteriumis simZlav-
re ori binomuri proporciebis Sedarebisas. .........................................
12.9. SeuRlebis r c cxrilebi. ..............................................................
12.10. Tanxmobis _
2
kriteriumi. ............................................................
167
170
176
243
amocanebi ......................................................................................................................... 178
l e q c i a 14. Tavi 13. regresiuli analizi da kore-
lacia. ...............................................................................................................................
13.1. Sesavali, ZiriTadi cnebebi. .....................................................................
13.2. umcires kvadratTa meTodi. ....................................................................
13.3. regresiis wrfis parametrebis aRricxva. ......................................
13.4. Tanxmobis kriteriumebi regresiis wrfisaTvis. ........................
13.5. intervaluri Sefasebebi wrfivi regresiisaTvis. .....................
13.6. naSTTa analizi martivi wrfivi regresiisaTvis. .....................
13.7. korelaciis koeficienti. .........................................................................
3.8. kerZo da mravlobiTi korelacia. .........................................................
13.9. mravlobiTi logisturi regresia. .....................................................
amocanebi .........................................................................................................................
179
179
182
183
185
187
190
191
196
197
198
l e q c i a 15. Tavi 14. daskvniTi statistikis arapar-
ametruli meTodebi. ................................................................................................
14.1. Sesavali. ..............................................................................................................
14.2. niSnebis kriteriumi. ...................................................................................
14.3. uilkoksonis niSniani rangebis kriteriumi. ................................
14.4. uilkoksonis rangTa jamis kriteriumi. .........................................
14.5. Tanadoba uilkoksonis rangTa jamis kriteriumsa da _
2
-
kriteriums Soris. ...................................................................................................
14.6. kraskel-uolisis kriteriumi. ..............................................................
14.7. spirmenis rangobrivi korelaciis koeficienti. .......................
amocanebi .........................................................................................................................
201
201
201
204
206
210
211
215
217
d a n a r T i (statistikuri cxrilebi) ...............................................
Syllabus. Probability and Mathematical Statistics for Chemistry, Biolo-
gy, and Life Sciences. ..................................................................................................
sagnobrivi saZiebeli ..............................................................................................
222
231
236
244
Omar Purtukhia,
Zurab Tsigroshvili,
Qetevan Manjgaladze
Probability and Mathematical
Statistics
(Lecture Course for Chemistry, Biology, and Life Sciences)
T S U
245
omar grigolis Ze furTuxia daibada 1959 wels walenjixis rai-
onSi. warCinebiT daamTavra Tbilisis v.m. komarovis sax. fizika-maTema-
tikis skola-internati (1975 w.) da Tbilisis saxelmwifo universit-
etis meqanika-maTematikis fakul-
teti (1980 w.). 1981-1984 wleb-
Si iyo Tbilisis saxelmwifo un-
iversitetisa (xelmZRvaneli
prof. g. mania) da moskovis lom-
onosovis sax. saxelmwifo unive-
rsitetis aspiranti (xelmZRvane-
li prof. n. krilovi). 1984
wels daicva sakandidato diser-
tacia lomonosovis universitet-
is specializebul samecniero sa-
bWoze, romelsac xelmZRvanelob-
da akad. a. kolmogorovi. 1984
wlidan muSaobs Tbilisis a. raz-
maZis maTematikis institutis
albaTobis Teoriisa da maTemati-
kuri statistikis ganyofilebaSi
da Tsu albaTobis Teoriisa da
maTematikuri statistikis kaTed-
raze. kiTxulobs ZiriTad da specialur kursebs Tsu zust da sabune-
bismetyvelo mecnierebaTa, ekonomikisa da biznesisa da socialur da
politikur mecnierebaTa fakultetebze albaTobis Teoriisa da maTema-
tikuri statistikis sxvadasxva mimarTulebebiT. 1990 wlidan iyo
Tsu stoqasturi analizisa da statistikuri gadawyvetilebebis samec-
niero/kvleviTi laboratoriis ufrosi mecnier-TanamSromeli. 2006
wlidan aris Tsu profesori. koordinacias uwevs albaTobis Teoriisa
da maTematikuri statistikis swavlebas Tsu ekonomikisa da biznesis
da socialur da politikur mecnierebaTa fakultetebze. 2007-2008
wlebSi iyo Tsu zust da sabunebismetyvelo mecnierebaTa fakultetis
maTematikis saswavlo-samecniero institutis direqtori. 2009 wlid-
an (specialuri xelSekrulebiT) xelmZRvanelobs sagnebis statistika
I-isa da statistika II-is swavlebas Tsu socialur da politikur
mecnierebaTa fakultetze. sxvadaxva dros miRebuli aqvs fond evraz-
iis (1996-1997ww.), INTAS-is (1997-1999ww.), saqarTvelos mecniere-
baTaa erovnuli akademiis (2000-2005ww.), saqarTvelos mecnierebisa
da ganaTlebis saministros (2005-2006ww.), da saqarTvelos erovnu-
li samecniero fondis (2006-2009ww.) grantebi. aris saqarTvelos
statistikuri asociaciis wevri.
246
zurab pavles Ze cigroSvili daibada 1963 wels TbilisSi. warC-
inebiT daamTavra Tbilisis v. m. komarovis sax. fizika-maTematikis sko-
la-internati da Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetis meqanika-maTemat-
ikis fakulteti. 1990 wlidan muSaobs Tbilisis a. razmaZis maTemati-
kis institutis albaTobis Teoriisa da maTematikuri statistikis ga-
nyofilebaSi. 1998 wels profesor
estate xmalaZis xelmZRvanelobiT
daicva sakandidato disertacia fi-
zika-maTematikis mecnierebaTa darg-
Si. wlebis ganmavlobaSi wakiTxuli
aqvs Teoriuli da gamoyenebiTi xa-
siaTis leqciaTa kursebi albaTob-
asa da maTematikur statistikaSi
Tsu meqanika-maTematikisa da bio-
samedicino genetikis fakulteteb-
ze, aswavlida ESM-Tbilisis marT-
vis evropul skolaSi (1993-
1997ww.), 2006 wlidan dRemde ki-
Txulobs gamoyenebiTi statistik-
isa da riskis Teoriis kursebs sa-
qarTvelos teqnikur da qarTul-amerikul universitetebSi. muSobda
aqtuaris Tanamdebobaze sadazRvevo kompaniebSi I-holdingi (2001-2003
ww.) da aldagi (2004-2006ww.), 2007-2008 wlebSi analitikosis
Tanamdebobaze Ti-bi-si bankis saoperacio riskebis ganyofilebaSi. wle-
bis manZilze miRebuli aqvs saerTaSoriso da saqarTvelos mecniereba-
Ta akademiis samecniero grantebi. gakeTebuli aqvs samecniero moxsene-
bebi moskovis, varSavis, amstrdamis, eindhovenisa da madridis univers-
itetebSi. aris saqarTvelos statistikuri da aqtuaruli asociacie-
bis wevri.
247
qeTevan viqtoris asuli manjgalaZe daibada 1942 wels ruseTSi.
daamTavra Tbilisis 66-e saSualo skola oqros medalze da Tbilisis
ivane javaxiSvilis saxelmwifo univer-
sitetis fizikis fakulteti warCineb-
iT. 1973 wels (prof. amiran toronja-
Zisa da revaz CitaSvilis xelmZRvanel-
obiT) daicva sakandidato disertacia
fizika-maTematikis mecnierebaTa dargSi.
aris Tsu zust da sabunebismetyvelo
mecnierebaTa fakultetis mowveuli
pedagogi, maswavlebelTa profesiuli
ganviTarebis programis treneri, alba-
Tobis Teoriisa da maTematikuri sta-
tistikis VII, VIII, IX da X klasebis
saxelmZRvaneloebis ("ras gvimaven mona-
cemebi", "movida luwi, movida kenti",
"maTematika 10") Tanaavtori. monawile-
obas iRebda proeqtebSi: "ekonomikuri barometri", "axali programis
danergva saSualo skolaSi", "trenerebis momzadeba saSualo skolis
maswavlebelTa gadasamzadeblad". kiTxulobs leqciebis kursebs Tsu
zust da sabunebismetyvelo mecnierebaTa fakultetis biologiis mima-
rTulebaze da socialur da politikur mecnierebaTa fakultetze.
monawileobs programaSi: trenerTa treningis programa maTematikasa
da misi swavlebis meTodikaSi

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omar furTuxia,

p x -ze. cxadia, rom mediana warmoadgens 50-procentils. Tu 100 P o = ,

) da Tavad monacemze mosuli procenteb-

aRwevs Tavis minimums.

nabiji 3. miRebuli mniSvnelobebi SevitanoT korelaciis koe-

saxis albaTobebis gamoTvla da aqac iyeneben

da rogorc 6.3 magaliTSi, is sakmarisad rTu-

~ t(n-1) da rogorc me-7 leqciidan viciT, mas eqneba

n 0.1 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 0.0025 0.001

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