To: From: Re: Date:

Friends of Peter Franchot Jill Normington/ Normington, Petts & Associates Strength of Franchot December 10, 2012

The following is a summary of findings from two telephone surveys, each conducted among registered Democrats in Maryland. Interviews were conducted May 14-16 and December 3-5, 2012. The sampling error for the surveys are 4.0 and 4.4 percentage points, respectively. Comptroller Peter Franchot is well known and well-liked statewide. He and Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown have equivalent name identification and favorable ratings. Attorney General Doug Gansler and County Executive Ken Ulman are less well-known. Franchot shows particular strength in the Baltimore media market, where he is the best known and most well-liked of any of the candidates.
Favorable 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Name ID

54% 36%

52% 44% 35% 31% 25% 15%

Franchot

Brown

Gansler

Ulman

None of these numbers have changed significantly since May, lending little credence to the theory that Franchots Democratic base might have eroded due to his prominent role in the slots referendum and recent policy differences with fellow party leaders. Most Democrats (53%) remain undecided 17 months from primary day, which is no surprise. A trial heat matchup with all four potential candidates does show that voters are beginning to try to make sense of the potential field. Brown leads Franchot by single digits with Gansler and Ulman about 15 points behind.
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

53%

22% 13%
Franchot Brown

8%
Gansler

4%
Ulman Undecided

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Should Franchot decide to enter the gubernatorial contest, he would be a formidable opponent who begins with a geographic base and a strong message of strengthening the Maryland budget in order to protect the priorities of education, economic growth and health care. Alternatively, should Franchot seek re-election to the Comptrollers office he is the prohibitive favorite to retain the Democratic nomination. All measures of his political support are significantly net positive. A near majority of Democrats (49%) would re-elect Franchot while just 13% believe he should be replaceda 3.75 to 1 ratio. His favorable to unfavorable ratio is 4:1.
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

49% 42% 22% 13% 8%

Job Rating Favorable Rating

36%

Re-elect

1010 WISCONSIN AVENUE NW SUITE 208 WASHINGTON DC 20007 PHONE: 202-342-0700 FAX: 202-342-0330