William J.

ONeil v nguyn tc CANSLIM

( Bnh chn: 2 -- Tho lun: 4 -- S ln c: 10249)

LA CHN C PHIU THEO NGUYN TC CANSLIM William J. ONeil l mt mu nh u t chng khon thnh cng ti M. Khi nghip bng ngh k ton vin, ng nhanh chng b cun vo cn st c phiu trn th trng chng khon, ri vi nhng cng thc u t ca ring mnh, ng tr thnh mt nh ph thu ti Wall Street khi thu v hng triu USD li nhun mi nm t c phiu. Hin William l ch tch kim gim c iu hnh hng nghin cu u t William J. ONeil & Company do chnh ng thnh lp.

300 USD l khon tin u tin William rt vo th trng chng khon vi c phiu ca Procter & Gamble khi cn phc v trong Khng lc hong gia. C trong tay tm bng c nhn ti chnh ca i hc Southern Methodist, William khi ng s nghip u t ca mnh trn cng v mt nh mi gii chng khon ti Los Angeles. Bit kinh nghim cn t i, William dnh rt nhiu thi gian nghin cu v thnh cng ca cc bc tin bi trn th trng chng khon. V ri, n lc ca ng c n p. William nghin cu v c kt c 7 yu t cn thit nhn dng nhng c phiu hin cn t c gii u t ch nhng li chnh l nhng ti sn sinh li ln trong tng lai. By yu t c bit n vi ci tn CAN SLIM. William tm s: Trn th trng chng khon c n hng chc nghn c phiu nim yt nn nhiu nh u t i khi rt lng tng trong vic la chn i tng u t. Vn quan trng i vi h l chn mt gi vng, ngha l phi tm ra mt s loi c phiu thc s c kh nng sinh li u t. Nhn nh ca William hon ton ph hp vi mt thc t hin nay l rt nhiu nh u t khng bit cc cng ty c nim yt c phiu trn th trng chng khon ang hot ng nh th no v u t vo c phiu ca cc cng ty no s c li? Di tc ng ca hiu ng m ng, h bt chc nhau, cng x i mua nhng c phiu ang tng gi. Nhiu ngi mua c phiu ri m vn cha c trong tay nhng ti liu v phng php cn thit tm hiu v mc sinh li ca c phiu . L cha ca phng php phn tch v la chn c phiu hiu qu CAN SLIM, William J. ONeil mang li tc tng trng bnh qun 40%/nm cho cc ti khon u t c nhn c ng t vn. Nhiu chuyn gia nh gi y l mt trong nhng phng php hiu qu nht trong v vn cc cng c phn tch chng khon hin nay. CAN SLIM th hin s kt hp hi ho gia phng php phn tch c bn vi phng php phn tch k thut u t chng khon- John Neff, mt cy i th ca ph Wall, cho bit. CAN SLIM l tp hp by ch ci u tin ca by yu t m theo William l rt hiu qu khi nh gi c phiu: C: Current Quaterly Earnings Per Share (li rng trn mi c phiu ca qu gn nht) William nhn nh rng, hu ht cc c phiu tt u c s gia tng li nhun so vi cng qu nm trc v t l tng cng cao th chng t c phiu cng c nhiu trin vng. Theo ng, cc nh u t trc khi b tin ra mua c phiu cn xem xt ti s gia tng mnh m li nhun ca c phiu , c th l mc tng trng ca li rng trn mi c phiu trong 3 thng gn nht. Nhng phi tm hiu s gia tng li nhun ny u v nh th no? William cho rng nh u t c th nghin cu cc bo co ti chnh c kim ton ca cng ty nim yt, cng vi vic thm d cc cc knh thng tin khc nh bo ch, ngi quen iu quan trng l cc nh u t cn coi trng tin cy v tnh ng nht ca thng tin, chng hn c th c iu g khng ng, nu doanh thu ca cng ty tng 20%, trong khi li rng ch tng 5%. A: Annual Earnings Increases (s gia tng li rng hng nm) Theo ONeil, c phiu tt l c phiu c mc gia tng li nhun u n trong vng 5 nm trc . Cc nh u t cn c bit lu ti cc c phiu c mc gia tng li nhun hng nm n nh v t trn 25%, tuy nhin nn ch ti chu k kinh doanh ca tng ngnh, tng cng ty. Theo ONeil, tiu ch ny c th gip bn loi b khong 80% cc c phiu ti.

 c c s chnh xc v mc gia tng li nhun, nh u t cn nghin cu tt c cc thng tin lin quan n cng ty m h mun u t. Cc thng tin ny bao gm lch s v c im ca cng ty, tnh hnh ti chnh, cc chi tit ca t pht hnh c phiu v t chc bo lnh pht hnh c phiu. Nh u t c th tm cc thng tin ny trong Bn thng co pht hnh, trong Bo co ti chnh ca cng ty hoc t cc cng ty dch v t vn u t. Cc quyt nh u t ch nn a ra khi bn c c s thng tin v c phiu cng nh v mc tng trng li rng hng nm. N: New Products, New Management, New Highs (sn phm mi, s qun l mi, mc gi trn mi) Nhng nghin cu ca William ch ra rng gi c phiu tng s bt ngun t mt s nhn t ni ti no . Nhng nhn t ny thng l sn phm mi ca cng ty, ban gim c mi, phng thc qun l mi hay mc gi trn mi ca c phiu trn th trng chng khon. Do vy, s khng bao gi tha nu cc nh u t quan tm n nhng nhn t ni ti ny. Nu xt thy nhng nhn t ny c s n nh, khng c biu hin t bin theo chiu hng xu, th s l mt c phiu c nhiu trin vng tng trng trn th trng chng khon. S: Supply and Demand (ngun cung v cu) Trong kinh doanh, quy lut cung cu lun c nh hng rt ln n gi thnh sn phm, v u t chng khon cng khng phi l mt ngoi l. Gi c phiu cng chu tc ng t quy lut cung cu. William cho rng c phiu ca cc cng ty i chng, c quy m ln, sn phm cht lng khng phi lc no cng ng mua, bi lng cu ca nhng c phiu ny kh ln, trong khi ngun cung li t nn gi thng b y ln cao gi to, khng phn nh ng gi tr thc t ca c phiu cng nh rt kh sinh li nhun ln. Chnh nhng c phiu c s lng lu hnh thp trn th trng mi c nhiu trin vng v c kh nng tng gi hn so vi cc c phiu c s lng lu hnh ln. T suy ra, c phiu c cc nh qun tr hng u nm gi vi t l ln thng l nhng c phiu c an ton cao. William c bit lu ti cc c phiu c cng ty mua li v c phiu ca cc cng ty c t l n di hn trn vn t c va phi, bi theo ng th t l ny cng cao bao nhiu cng ty s cng phi ng u vi p lc tr li trong tng lai nhiu by nhiu. Cc nh u t nn so snh t s ny cng ty mnh d nh u t vi t s n bnh qun cc cng ty trong cng ngnh, ng thi phn tch thm kh nng thanh ton c nh gi xc thc hn v mc n ca cng ty. L: Leader and Laggard (c phiu u bng v c phiu tt hu) Theo ONeil, nh u t trn th trng ch nn mua 2 hay 3 c phiu tt nht trong nhm nhng c phiu u bng hin ti, cn li nn dnh tin cho nhng c phiu c kh nng sinh li trong tng lai. c bit, cc nh u t cn trnh mua nhng c phiu c mc tng trng cao nhng khng bn vng, chng hn nh c phiu ln gi theo tro lu, theo s kin ni bt bi v cc c phiu ny c nh gi l nhng c phiu tt hu, khng sm th mun cng mt gi. I: Institutional Sponsorship (s ng h ca cc nh ch ti chnh v u t) nh ch ti chnh u t y thng l cc c quan chc nng, cc c quan chnh ph chuyn v ti chnh u t. Cc c quan ny c th nm gi mt s lng c phiu nht nh ca cc cng ty no , nh vy m cng ty s c s ng h v tr gip mnh m t nhng c quan ny, mt iu kin v cng thun li cho hot ng kinh doanh, khin gi c phiu tng mnh. Tuy nhin, mt s lng qu ln cc nh ch ti chnh u t nm gi c phiu li tr thnh yu t bt li, v iu ng ngha vi vic ngun cung s hn ch bi cc c quan t khi mun bn tng phn c phiu ca mnh, y tnh thanh khon ca c phiu xung thp. M: Market Direction (nh hng th trng) Cho d bn hon ton chnh xc khi nhn nh v c 6 tiu ch k trn, nhng n tiu ch nh hng th trng bn mc phi sai lm th s c n 5 trong s 7 c phiu bn mua s mt gi v khin bn thua l. Yu t th trng l rt quan trng bi n nh hng mnh m n gi c phiu. Khi hng lot cc c phiu cng ngnh trn th trng b mt gi, th gi c phiu ca cng ty m bn la chn chc chn cng s st gim theo. Ngc li, nu gi c phiu ca cc cng ty ny tng theo s pht trin ca th trng th c phiu bn mua vo cng c n theo

nhng ch s tch cc . Do , William nhn mnh n tm quan trng ca vic nghin cu cc th bin ng gi chng khon theo ngy, theo tun v theo thng trc mi quyt nh u t c phiu. Mt trong nhng thnh cng ln nht ca William l u t vo c phiu ca hng dc phm Syntex. y l hnh ng to bo v liu lnh, theo nh gi ca cc nh u t chuyn nghip lc by gi, bi Syntex l hng sn xut thuc trnh thai u tin trn th gii. Nhng ri kt qu chng minh quyt nh ca William l ng. Ch mt thi gian ngn sau , Syntex cng b doanh thu hng qu tng trng trn 300% v c phiu ca Syntex t ch cn n danh vi mc gi 100 USD/c phiu tr thnh c phiu tng trng mnh m vi mc gi 550 USD/c phiu trong vng cha y su thng. Chnh nh khon li nhun kch s t Syntex m William c tin thnh lp cng ty William J. ONeil & Company ca ring mnh. Goerge Soros, mt trong nhng nh u t ln nht ti ph Wall, c kt rng: Khng c lnh vc no em li li nhun nhanh v ln bng u t chng khon. C kh nhiu ngi xem vic u t chng khon l cuc chi ngu hng vi hy vng s kim c nhiu tin mt cch nhanh chng. Tuy nhin, lnh vc u t y hp dn ny dng nh khng c ch cho nhng quyt nh theo cm tnh. i vi William ONeil cng nh nhiu cy i th khc ti ph Wall, cc quyt nh la chn c phiu cn c da trn s phn tch v phi kt hp gia cc yu t nh lng v nh tnh. Cha kho phn tch trong u t c phiu l tm ra nhng c phiu c tim nng tng trng ln nht trong thi im bn mua chng. Ni cch khc, bn phi c k nng phn on, xem xt v phn tch vn cng vi vic hoch nh mt k hoch u t thch hp xc nh thi im mua vo nhng c phiu mnh v bn i nhng c phiu yu. (Dch t Global-investor)

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