About the author
Nisin ses Tt thoi Cai LLG 2
‘risishaning hedge find operator, anda fellow atthe Courant
Instat of Mathematial Sciences of New York University. He hashed
{variety of derivative eading position in New York ad London and
‘worked a a independent flor wader in Chicago, Taleb was inducted
in February 2001 inthe Deriatves Strategy Hall of Fame.
“Taleb received an MBA from the Wharton Schl anda PhD. from
University ParieDauphine. He is the ator of Dynamic Hedging:
Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options (Wily, 1997)
FOOLED
BY
RANDOMNESS
The Hidden Role of Chance
in the Markets and in Life
+
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB
TEXERE
New York # London.CONTENTS
+
Preface and Acknowledgments
Chapter Summaries
Prologue
Mosques the Clouds
PART I: Sovons WARNING - SKEWNESS, ASYAMETRY,
INoucrioN
‘One: If You're So Rich Why Aren't You So Smart?
Nero Tai
Hit by Lighniog
“Temporary Sanity
Modus Operan
No Work Eis
“There Ate Always Sees
Jol” the High Yield Trader
‘An Overpaid Hick‘The Red-Hot Sonmer
Serotonin a Randomness
‘Your Det Is Rich, Very Rich .
“Two: A Bizarre Accounting Method
Alternative Hctory
Russian Roulee
[An Even More Vicious Roalewe
‘smooth Per Relatione
‘Savation Via Aerflt
Solon Visits Repine's Night Cb
George Will Is No Solon: On Countrinntve Tra
Horse in Debates
Risk Managers
‘Three: A Mathematical Meditation on History
aroplayboy Mathematics
The Tooke
‘Mente Carlo Mathematics
nin My Aric
‘Making Hitoy
glib Ceowsing the tic
Dengration of History
‘The Stove I Hot
My Solon
Disiled Thinking om Your Palle
Breaking News
Shilke Redox
GGeromoracy
Phiostrata in Monte Carl: On the Difference Between Noise
‘and Information
Four: Randomness, Nontense, and the Scientific Intellectual
Rendomnses and the Verb
“The Father of Al Peudotinkers
Monte Carlo Poetry
Five: Survival of the Leas Fit = Can
‘Randomness?
Evolution Be Fooled by
Carlos the Emerging Markets Wiard
"The Good Years,
Averaging Down
Lines in he Sead
Job he High-Yield Trader
“The Quant Who Knew Computers and Equations
‘The Traits They Shared
A Review of Marker Fools of Randomness Constants
ave Evolutionary Theories
(Can Evolution be Fooled by Randomness?
Six: Skewness and Asymmetry
“The Median le Not the Message
‘all and Baar Zoology
‘An Argan 29-YearOld Soa
Rare rents
Symmetry and Science
“The Rare Event Fallacy
‘The Mother of All Deceptions
Why Don't Statisisiane Detect Rae Events?
A Mischievous Child Replaces the Blick Ball
Seven: The Problem of Induction
‘rom Bacon to Hume
‘Coyne Aerats
‘Niederotfer, Victorian Geatleman
Sir Karl's Promoting Agent
‘Location, Location
Popper's Answer
Open Soiety
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