NURSYUHADA BT ROSTAM 211926 NORHAFIZA BT YAHAYA 212161 FAUZIAH ATHIRAH BT AZLAN SHAH 212172 KHAIRAH NAZURAH BT KARIM 211525

1 MALAYSIA: Malaysia has various tourist attraction

Tourism sector contribute GDP and employment

It has contributed a lot in Malaysias national income.

To ensure the number of tourist arrival increases in Malaysia

Facilitate early planning by using suitable policy tool

The problem Fomulation

To forecast short term financial requirements.

To attract the stakeholder to invest in tourist industry

30 25

20
15 10 5 0

Year

TIME-SERIES MODEL

MOVING AVERAGE: 3 MONTH

MOVING AVERAGE: 5 MONTH

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

ADJUSTED EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

LINEAR- TREND FORECASTING

Arrival of Tourist 1995-2012

Based on our forecasting, the tourist arrival expected in 2012 is 26.23 million people. The MAD = 1.2346, The MAPD = 8.57%, MSE= 2.68 This result was similar to the information provided by the Ministry Tourism of Malaysia, which told that in 2012 the number of international tourists will be constant or increase .