Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 8 views

    Model Was Build Using Data From April 2005 To November 2011. 12 Data Points From Dec 2011 To Nov 2012 Was Used For Testing The Model

    Uploaded by

    Naveen Dhayapule
    The model was built using data from April 2005 to November 2011 and tested on 12 data points from December 2011 to November 2012. It found that wholesale price index (WPI) is best predicted by a combination of its own lagged values and moving averages. Forecasts generated for December 2012 through March 2013 were included.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content

    You might also like

    Model Was Build Using Data From April 2005 To November 2011. 12 Data Points From Dec 2011 To Nov 2012 Was Used For Testing The Model

    Uploaded by

    Naveen Dhayapule
    8 views4 pages
    The model was built using data from April 2005 to November 2011 and tested on 12 data points from December 2011 to November 2012. It found that wholesale price index (WPI) is best predicted by a combination of its own lagged values and moving averages. Forecasts generated for December 2012 through March 2013 were included.

    Original Description:

    MOdel_WPI

    Original Title

    MOdel_WPI

    Copyright

    © Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

    Available Formats

    DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    The model was built using data from April 2005 to November 2011 and tested on 12 data points from December 2011 to November 2012. It found that wholesale price index (WPI) is best predicted by a combination of its own lagged values and moving averages. Forecasts generated for December 2012 through March 2013 were included.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    8 views4 pages

    Model Was Build Using Data From April 2005 To November 2011. 12 Data Points From Dec 2011 To Nov 2012 Was Used For Testing The Model

    Uploaded by

    Naveen Dhayapule
    The model was built using data from April 2005 to November 2011 and tested on 12 data points from December 2011 to November 2012. It found that wholesale price index (WPI) is best predicted by a combination of its own lagged values and moving averages. Forecasts generated for December 2012 through March 2013 were included.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    of 4

    Model was build using data from April 2005 to November 2011.

    12 data points from Dec


    2011 to Nov 2012 was used for testing the model

    Dependent Variable: WPI


    Method: Least Squares
    Date: 12/29/12 Time: 17:40
    Sample (adjusted): 2005M08 2011M11
    Included observations: 76 after adjustments
    Convergence achieved after 31 iterations
    Backcast: 2005M05 2005M07
    Variable

    Coefficient

    Std. Error

    t-Statistic

    Prob.

    C
    T
    AR(4)
    AR(2)
    AR(1)
    MA(3)
    MA(1)

    94.09166
    0.755224
    0.210931
    -1.262001
    2.001228
    0.659849
    -0.748226

    4.456517
    0.081191
    0.048565
    0.107874
    0.078264
    0.048161
    0.037242

    21.11327
    9.301788
    4.343254
    -11.69883
    25.57016
    13.70096
    -20.09111

    0.0000
    0.0000
    0.0000
    0.0000
    0.0000
    0.0000
    0.0000

    R-squared
    Adjusted R-squared
    S.E. of regression
    Sum squared resid
    Log likelihood
    Durbin-Watson stat

    0.997943
    0.997764
    0.732808
    37.05355
    -80.54130
    2.271629

    Mean dependent var


    S.D. dependent var
    Akaike info criterion
    Schwarz criterion
    F-statistic
    Prob(F-statistic)

    Inverted AR Roots
    Inverted MA Roots

    .87
    .71-.68i

    .73+.47i
    .71+.68i

    .73-.47i
    -.68

    126.5316
    15.49630
    2.303718
    2.518391
    5578.157
    0.000000
    -.32

    Correlogram

    Forecast graph

    170
    160
    150
    140
    130
    120
    110
    100
    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
    WPI
    Forecast
    Month
    Dec 2012
    Jan 2013
    Feb 2013
    Mar 2013

    WPIF

    WPI
    168.83
    169.04
    169.43
    169.89

    172
    Forecast: WPIF
    Actual: WPI
    Forecast sample: 2012M04 2013M03
    Included observations: 11

    170
    168

    Root Mean Squared Error


    Mean Absolute Error
    Mean Abs. Percent Error
    Theil Inequality Coefficient
    Bias Proportion
    Variance Proportion
    Covariance Proportion

    166
    164
    162
    160
    2012M04

    2012M07

    2012M10
    WPIF

    2013M01

    0.578061
    0.383840
    0.231800
    0.001730
    0.127527
    0.066380
    0.806092

    You might also like