Forecasting the Futures

Methods of Forecasting
In order to prepare for the future you must develop alternate futures. This means monitoring the
environment for indicators and suggesting alternatives.

How to create alternate futures

Drivers are major factors influencing change. They are trends that shape future conditions.

 How to identify relevant drivers (which shape change)

 review credible literature
 ensure team diversity
 looking at fringe ideas and identifying anomalies

Forecasting Tools
These are processes that can give a strategic foresight. Possible tools include market research,
value chain analysis, and trend extrapolation. To gain strategic foresight, at least one formal method
should be used as clients should understand how the conclusion was reached. Formal methods are the
most effective way to show this.

Generating Ideas
Many different lines of thinking (and therefore new ideas) can be generated by with new
approaches.
 Archetypes for strategic innovation
 Strategic relatives – Learning from other industries
 Biostrategy archetype – Learning from nature
 Science Fiction archetype – Learning from fiction
 Value Analysis archetype – concentrating on desired outcome

Converge and prioritize ideas

When dealing with controversial issues and their effect on an organization, finding common
ground is a must. Finding a common ground among diverse actors will strengthen the process
internally. It also makes it possible to enact joint action. Once this common ground has been found,
ideas can come together from different actors within the group.

Form Alternatives
The best way to keep an organization prepared for how to react to future situations is to form
numerous alternate futures. This is often done by taking empirical data and making a prediction based
off of that data. The more turbulent the environment, the more likely that forecast will be wrong.
However, the purpose of forecasting is not to get the future “right” but simply have numerous scenarios
and be prepared for change.