1.

78
1.80
1.82
1.84
1.86
1.88
7.20
7.30
7.40
7.50
7.60
24-Jan 10-Jan 21-Dec
NOK & 3m NIBOR
EURNOK 3m(rha)


0
20
40
60
80
100
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
24-Jan 10-Jan 21-Dec
Norsk 10y sov.
rente Diff(bp, rha)


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Yesterdays key economic events (GMT) As of Unit Prior Poll Actual
06:45 France INSEE business climate Jan index 89.0 90.0 86.0
08:30 UK Minutes from BoE Jan
13:00 USA House prices (FHFA) Nov m/m % 0.6r 0.6
Todays key economic events (GMT)
As of Unit Prior Poll DNB
23:45 China PMI, manuf. Jan Index 51.5
08:58 EMU Comp- PMI Jan Index 47.2 47.6
12:30 USA Initial claims W2 1000 335 355
Morning Report
24.01.2013
The debt ceiling suspended

The congress yesterday approved a proposal from Republicans to suspend the effect of the
debt ceiling for four months. This avoids market turmoil and politicians have more time to reach
a long-term budget deal.

The market mood was moderately positive yesterday with the rise of American and European
markets. Asian stock markets have been a bit mixed as have the macro numbers. Japanese exports
disappointed slightly, while Chinese PMI manufacturing showed an increase from 51.5 in December to
51.9 in January. Long-term interest rates have been fairly stable, but the Spanish government 10-year
bond yield has dropped some 5 basis points. Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged as
expected at 1.0% at yesterday's monetary policy meeting. In the currency market, the yen weakened
against the dollar, while the NOK has appreciated slightly.

As expected the U.S. Congress yesterday voted to suspend the effect of the debt ceiling to 18
May. This means that the U.S. government can continue to borrow as normal in the meantime.
This gives Congress more time to negotiate a long-term budget deal. The decision also means (a bit
surprising) that the politicians will not receive compensation after 15 April if a resolution of the budget
for fiscal year 2014 is not agreed upon. Housing prices from FHFA rose 0.6% in November, and the
rise in October was revised up to the same rate of growth. It thus appears that the growth in house
prices continues. This is important because it helps more people to refinance their mortgages.
IMF yesterday released updated forecasts for the world economy. The estimates for global GDP
growth were adjusted marginally down from the previous report in October to 3.5% for this year and
4.1% for next year. The IMF remains optimistic about China and retains forecasts of 8.2% growth
this year and 8.5% next year. Advanced economies are expected to grow by only 1.4% this year and
2.2% next year (drawn up by the United States with 2.0% and 3.0% respectively). Our forecasts for
global growth are in line with the IMF forecasts. We are slightly more optimistic about the U.S. and the
Eurozone, but somewhat less optimistic on China and Brazil.

Several British events dominated the news yesterday. Most importantly was Prime Minister David
Cameron's speech, where he launched a referendum on continued EU membership. The plan is
that Britain should first obtain a renegotiated EU-agreement and then have a referendum in 2017.
Given that the British people are generally split in their views on the EU, this initiative could create a lot
of uncertainty about the further association with the EU. This may in itself have a negative impact on
economic development and in particular affect the important financial sector.

The UK labor market numbers continue to surprise positively. The registered unemployment fell
by 12,100 persons in December, while it was expected unchanged. LFS unemployment fell from 7.8%
in October (3m average) to 7.7% in November. Employment is still rising and is at its highest level
since records began, while wage growth remains subdued. The decline in the unemployment rate may
seem positive, but is in fact due to the weaker productivity growth. If this continues, it is undoubtedly
negative for growth potential of the economy. In addition, weak productivity growth implies that labor
costs are growing faster. This will prevent a further decline in inflation, which means lower real
household income and slower economic growth.

The minutes from the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of England 9 and 10 January showed that
David Miles once again was the only member of the MPC who voted to increase the quantitative
easing. Miles emphasizes large slack in the economy and weak growth more than a little too high
inflation. Others put more emphasis on the fact that the Funding for Lending Scheme seems to take
effect and that inflation is no longer falling. Governor King said in a speech Tuesday night that no
one should be in any doubt that the central bank would implement further stimulus measures, if
necessary. He added that it is necessary to recapitalize banks and carry out reforms on the supply
side of the economy. King thought it was good and necessary that the pound fell 25% during the crisis
in 2008. The country still has a current account deficit. Yesterday's news contributed however, not to
affect the pound much. In our forecasts, we assume a gradual weakening of the pound through 2013.

knut.magnussen@dnb.no

Morning Report
0.30
0.30
0.31
0.31
0.32
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
24-Jan 10-Jan 21-Dec
3m LIBOR
EUR USD(rha)


1.78
1.80
1.82
1.84
1.86
1.88
7.20
7.30
7.40
7.50
7.60
24-Jan 10-Jan 21-Dec
NOK & 3m NIBOR
EURNOK 3m(rha)


1.25
1.30
1.35
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
24-Jan 10-Jan 21-Dec
US dollar
USDNOK EURUSD(rha)


6.0
7.0
8.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
24-Jan 10-Jan 21-Dec
Japanese yen
USDJPY JPYNOK(rha)


5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.2
83
84
85
86
87
24-Jan 10-Jan 21-Dec
SEKNOK & CHFNOK
SEKNOK
CHFNOK(rha)


430
440
450
460
470
480
12200
12700
13200
13700
14200
24-Jan 10-Jan 21-
Dec
Equities
Dow J.I . Oslo(rha)

24.01.2013
FX 0700 Last Today % In 1m Apr-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 FX 0700 USD NOK
USD/JPY 88.23 89.47 1.4 88 90 91 93 AUD 1.052 5.846
EUR/USD 1.3309 1.3338 0.2 1.33 1.32 1.36 1.37 CAD 1.000 5.557
EUR/GBP 0.8407 0.8422 0.2 0.82 0.81 0.85 0.86 CHF 0.931 596.916
EUR/DKK 7.4636 7.4627 0.0 7.45 7.45 7.45 7.45 CZK 19.200 28.937
EUR/SEK 8.6737 8.6899 0.2 8.65 8.65 8.60 8.70 RUB 30.168 18.416
EUR/CHF 1.2368 1.2413 0.4 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 GBP 1.584 8.801
EUR/NOK 7.4260 7.4124 -0.2 7.30 7.25 7.25 7.40 HKD 7.753 0.717
USD/NOK 5.5823 5.5587 -0.4 5.49 5.49 5.33 5.40 KWD 0.282 19.722
JPY/NOK 6.33 6.21 -1.8 6.24 6.10 5.86 5.81 LTL 2.589 2.146
SEK/NOK 85.68 85.39 -0.3 84.4 83.8 84.3 85.1 LVL 0.523 10.617
DKK/NOK 99.53 99.31 -0.2 98.0 97.3 97.3 99.3 NZD 0.842 4.680
GBP/NOK 8.838 8.803 -0.4 8.90 8.95 8.53 8.60 SEK 6.514 85.287
CHF/NOK 6.009 5.972 -0.6 608.33 604.17 604.17 592.00 SGD 1.227 4.527
Spot rates and forecasts
NOK Prior Last USD Prior Last EUR Prior Last
1m 1.81 1.82 1m 0.20 0.20 1m 0.05 0.06
3m 1.86 1.87 3m 0.30 0.30 3m 0.14 0.13
6m 1.99 2.00 6m 0.48 0.48 6m 0.25 0.25
12m 2.23 2.23 12m 0.81 0.81 12m 0.47 0.46
3y 2.28 2.28 3y 0.49 0.48 3y 0.68 0.66
5y 2.61 2.62 5y 0.87 0.86 5y 1.02 0.98
7y 2.89 2.90 7y 1.33 1.32 7y 1.35 1.32
10y 3.23 3.23 10y 1.85 1.86 10y 1.75 1.73
Norway Prior Last US Prior Last Germany Prior Last
NST475 95.75 95.85 10y 98.17 98.13 10y 99.31 99.49
10y yld 2.47 2.46 10y yld 1.83 1.83 10y yld 1.58 1.56
- US spread 0.64 0.63 30y yld 3.01 3.03 - US spread -0.25 -0.28
Norway 3m nibor 10y swap US 3m libor 10y swap Germany 3m euribor 10y swap
Apr-13 1.85 3.25 Apr-13 0.35 2.00 Apr-13 0.25 1.75
Jul-13 1.85 3.25 Jul-13 0.35 2.00 Jul-13 0.25 1.75
Jan-14 1.85 3.50 Jan-14 0.35 2.25 Jan-14 0.25 2.00
Interest rates
Government bonds
Interest rate forecasts
NOK sov. Prior Last Change year rem. NOK-index TWI Prior
NST19 2.34 2.35 2 0.40 Last 90.65 90.99
NST20 1.90 1.91 1 0.65 Oil price: (Ldn,cl) 1m
NST21 1.89 1.69 -20 0.90 SPOT 114.14 112.79
NST471 1.58 1.55 -2 2.30 Gold price 23.01.2013 PM
NST472 1.84 1.81 -3 4.32 AM: 1690.5 1690.3
NST473 2.03 2.00 -3 6.33 Equities Today 0700 % last
NST475 2.46 2.43 -3 10.33 Dow Jones 13779.33 0.5%
NST475 2.47 2.46 -1 10.33 Nasdaq C. 3153.67 0.3%
NOK FRA 3 mnd 6 mnd NOK NIDR NIBOR FTSE100 6197.64 0.3%
MAR 1.89 2.01 1m 1.87 1.82 Eurostoxx50 2708.28 -0.3%
JUN 1.89 2.03 3m 1.97 1.87 DAX 7707.54 0.1%
SEP 1.93 2.08 6m 2.10 2.00 Nikkei 225 10620.87 1.3%
DEC 1.99 2.14 12m 2.31 2.23 OSEBX 468.83 0.8%
Maturity
Miscellaneous
Sources to all tables and graphics: Thomson Reuters, Thomson Datastream and DNB Markets
19.06.2013
18.09.2013
18.12.2013
15.05.2015
19.05.2017
22.05.2019
24.05.2023
24.05.2023
















































Morning Report
24.01.2013
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