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Spreading (October 26 2005 CBOT Presentation-General ED Overview)
Spreading (October 26 2005 CBOT Presentation-General ED Overview)
Markets developed in London in 1950s and 60s Time deposits denominated in U.S. dollars in commercial
banks outside the U.S.
On September 15, 2005 open interest in the Eurodollar futures and options contract reached record levels of 29.7 million contracts
(Continued)
Rate represents interest on a 3-month Eurodollar deposit Prices denominated in , or 1 basis point increments
(1 basis point = $25)
Futures expire Second London bank business day prior to Futures are cash settled at expiration to daily British
Bankers Association survey of 3-month LIBOR
Outrights
Spreads
Spread traders provide the bulk of liquidity in the front eight Eurodollar contracts
Strips
Packs
10 specific packages of 4 consecutive futures contracts Quoted in basis point (.25) price increments Priced similarly to Bundles Designated by color codes that correspond to their position on the yield curve: White, Red, Green, Blue, Gold, Purple, Pink, Silver and Copper
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
7
94.50
94.75
95.00
95.25
95.50
95.75
96.00
Eurodollar Pricing
D
4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.50
E$ Price
ec M 05 ar -0 Ju 6 n Se 06 pD 06 ec -0 M 6 ar -0 Ju 7 n Se 07 pD 07 ec M 07 ar -0 Ju 8 n Se 08 pD 08 ec -0 M 8 ar -0 Ju 9 n Se 09 pD 09 ec M 09 ar -1 Ju 0 n Se 10 p10
(Continued)
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(Continued)
90-Day Rate Steep Yield Curve Inverted Yield Curve Flat Yield Curve 3.75 % 3.75 % 3.75 %
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quarterly Eurodollar futures, the ratios for Yield curve spreads are 1:1
Buy the shorter maturity Eurodollar Future; sell the longer maturity Eurodollar Future
Sell the shorter maturity Eurodollar Future; buy the longer maturity Eurodollar Future
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(Continued)
Market anticipates long-term interest rates will rise faster than short-term interest rates or long-term rates remain steady while short-term rates fall. Reason: General perception is that economy remains weak and the Federal Reserve is expected to do either nothing or to possibly lower interest rates again.
Market anticipates short-term interest rates will rise faster than longer-term interest rates. Reason: Employment news surprises market and economy is expected to strengthen further and Federal Reserve is expected to raise short-term interest rates to head off potential rise in inflation.
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(Continued)
the shorter maturity Eurodollar Future; sell the longer maturity Eurodollar Future
Buy Sell Mar 05 Mar 09 Eurodollar Eurodollar
(Price)
(Price)
14
(Continued)
at 98.06; buy back 100 of the Mar 09 Eurodollar futures at 94.80 with the yield curve spread at 326 basis points.
$55,000 (22 b.p. x $25 per b.p. x 100 contracts)
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(Continued)
the shorter maturity Eurodollar Future; buy the longer maturity Eurodollar Future
Sell Buy Mar 05 Mar 09 Eurodollar Eurodollar
(Price)
(Price)
16
(Continued)
futures at 97.03; sell off 100 of the Mar 09 Eurodollar futures at 94.26 with the yield curve at 277 basis points
$120,000 (48 b.p. x $25 per b.p. x 100 contracts)
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(Continued)
Federal Reserve tightens on June 30 From Mar 31 to Jun 30, Curve has Flattened
325
300
From Jan 30 to Mar 30,
Release of strong March 2004 Employment data on April 2 Expect Fed tightening
275
Yield Curve has Steepened Some believe Fed might Ease to 0.75%
250
01/28/04 02/22/04 03/18/04 04/12/04 05/07/04 06/01/04 06/26/04 07/21/04
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(Continued)
False Alarm! Mid July - Greenspan says flattening y.c. is not foolproof indicator of economic weakness Fed tightens for 11th time on Sep 20 Fed Funds at 3.75%
07/16/05
08/10/05
09/04/05
09/29/05
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Butterfly spreads are basically two calendar spreads, back-to-back They are often executed in this fashionone spread at a
time-or they may be done as a package on GLOBEX
Ratio is 1:2:1
First Wing - 1 contract first Eurodollar expiration Body - 2 contracts second Eurodollar expiration Second Wing - 1 contract third Eurodollar expiration
20
(Continued)
(Continued)
Buy the nearby wing (1 time) / Sell body (2 times) / Buy the deferred wing (1 time) Gains if the spread widens or gets more positive (less negative)
Short Butterfly
Sell the nearby wing (1 time) / Buy body (2 times) / Sell the deferred wing (1 time) Gains if the spread narrows or gets less positive (more negative)
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(Continued)
Butterfly spreads
(Continued)
1.25
97.18
0.94
22
(Continued)
Butterfly spreads
(Continued)
Diff. 0.095
Diff. 0.130
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(Continued)
2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 -8.0 -9.0 -10.0
05/02/05 05/27/05
Early June Greenspan says U.S. economy on reasonably firm footing Flattening continues
Mid July - Greenspan says flattening y.c. is not foolproof indicator of economic weakness
False Alarm! Fed tightens for 11th time on Sep 20 Fed Funds at 3.75%
06/21/05
07/16/05
08/10/05
09/04/05
09/29/05
24
(Continued)
Mid July - Greenspan says flattening y.c. is not foolproof indicator of economic weakness
False Alarm! Fed tightens for 11th time on Sep 20 Fed Funds at 3.75%
Early June Greenspan says U.S. economy on reasonably firm footing Flattening continues Hurricane Katrina Is tightening over?
09/04/05
09/29/05
25
(Continued)
30
25 -2 20 -4 15 -6 10
-8
0
5/2/2005 6/7/2005 7/13/2005 8/17/2005 9/22/2005
-10
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(Continued)
30
25 -2 20 -4 15
10
-6
-8
0
5/2/2005 6/7/2005 7/13/2005 8/17/2005 9/22/2005
-10
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Fixed rate payer buys or is long floating rate payer sells or is short the IRS
Fixed Payments
Fixed Payments
Dealer
An IMM-dated swap has floating rate reset dates that match expirations of CME Eurodollar futures but reset dates may be negotiated The term or tenor of a swap may vary from 1-10+ years
Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. All rights reserved.
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= $189,583
$22,917
Net Payment =
Pricing an IRS
Fair value of a swap is such that present values of fixed and floating payments are balanced PVfixed=PVfloating
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WHERE: P = Principle
PVi = Present value of $1 received i days (di) in future Ri = 3-month LIBOR rate expected to prevail di days in future
Day Span 93 84 98 91
EDU6
EDZ6 EDH7 EDM7
09/18/06
12/18/06 03/19/07 06/18/07
91
91 91 91
95.69
95.66 95.65 95.63
4.31
4.34 4.35 4.37
1.0541
1.0657 1.0774 1.0893
0.9487
0.9384 0.9282 0.9180
Rfixed
4 [ (0.9900)(0.0392)(93/360) + (0.9805)(0.0413)(84/360) + (0.9694)(0.0423)(98/360) + (0.9590)(0.0428)(91/360) + (0.9487)(0.0431)(91/360) + (0.9384)(0.0434)(91/360) + (0.9282)(0.0435)(91/360) + (0.9180)(0.0437)(91/360) ] [0.9900 + 0.9805 + 0.9694 + 0.9590 + 0.9487 + 0.9384 + 0.9282 + 0.9180 ]
4.297% (4.297033628%)
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Fixed Payments
$107,425.84 $107,425.84 $107,425.84 $107,425.84 $107,425.84 $107,425.84 $107,425.84 $107,425.84
PV of Fixed Payments
$106,348.88 $105,333.81 $104,134.70 $103,020.14 $101,909.86 $100,803.98 $99,707.62 $98,618.24 $819,877.24
Floating Payments
$101,266.67 $96,366.67 $115,150.00 $108,188.89 $108,947.22 $109,705.56 $109,958.33 $110,463.89
PV of Floating Payments
$100,251.45 $94,490.01 $111,622.22 $103,751.89 $103,353.12 $102,943.17 $102,058.16 $101,407.21 $819,877.24
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Balance changes in value of hedged item with change in value of futures contract
D Value of Hedged Instrument D Value of Futures Position
BUT need to measure changes in value with use of basis point value (BPV)
BPV measures change in the value of an instrument in response to a one basis point (0.01%) change in yield BPV of one CME Eurodollar futures (BPVfutures) = $25.00 BPVfutures = FV x (d/360) x 0.01% = $1,000,000 x (90/360) x 0.01% = $25.00
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BPV DValue
May be used to find Hedge Ratio (HR) or # of futures needed to offset risk associated with spot instrument HR = DValue of Hedged Instrument D Value of Futures
HR
= =
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Position Fixed Rate Payer (Long the Swap) Floating Rate Payer (Short the Swap)
Risk Rates fall and prices rise Rates rise and prices fall
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Fixed Payments
$107,425.84 $107,425.84 $107,425.84
PV of Fixed Payments
$106,346.16 $105,328.69 $104,126.83
Floating Payments
$101,266.67* $96,600.00 $115,422.22
PV of Floating Payments
$100,248.89 $94,714.19 $111,877.65
09/20/06
12/20/06 03/21/07 06/20/07 9/19/07
$107,425.84
$107,425.84 $107,425.84 $107,425.84 $107,425.84
0.9589
0.9485 0.9382 0.9280 0.9178
$103,009.78
$101,897.06 $100,788.80 $99,690.11 $98,598.46 $819,785.88
$108,441.67
$109,200.00 $109,958.33 $110,211.11 $110,716.67
0.9589
0.9485 0.9382 0.9280 0.9178
$103,983.84
$103,579.91 $103,164.83 $102,274.81 $101,618.87 $821,462.99
* First payment in December 2005 is fixed as of date on which the transaction was concluded in
September. Thus, there is no change in floating payment and no risk associated with first set of cash flows.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. All rights reserved.
36
BUT sell which contract month? ANSWER sell a strip or series of futures matched to each dated cash flow
Find BPV for the cash flows associated with 2-year swap Match PV of payments (PVfixed = PVfloating) on each date E.g., per original pricing, PVfixed exceeds PVfloating in March 2006 by $10,844 if rates increase 0.01%, difference becomes $10,614 resulting in profit for fixed rate payer (long the swap) and loss for floating rate payer (short the swap) of $229 floating rate payer might have hedged by selling 9 March 2006 futures
Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. All rights reserved.
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Payment Dates
12/20/06
03/21/07 06/20/07 9/19/07
$101,909.86
$100,803.98 $99,707.62 $98,618.24 $819,877.24
$103,353.12
$102,943.17 $102,058.16 $101,407.21 $819,877.24
$1,443.26
$2,139.19 $2,350.54 $2,788.97 $0
$101,897.06
$100,788.80 $99,690.11 $98,598.46 $819,785.88
$103,579.91
$103,164.83 $102,274.81 $101,618.87 $821,462.99
$1,682.85
$2,376.03 $2,584.70 $3,020.41 $1,677.12
$239.59
$236.84 $234.16 $231.45 $1,677.12
9.6
9.5 9.4 9.3 67.1
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Sell
Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell
11
10 10 9 9 9
June 2006
September 2006 December 2006 March 2007 June 2007 September 2007
Hedge is self liquidating as futures contracts will settle in cash as each payment/expiration date passes by
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