Economic analysis of boiler tube failures OMMI (Vol. 2, Issue 2) Aug. 2003 www.Ommi.co.

uk

Economic Analysis of Boiler Tube Failures in NSW

RF Small, Connell Wagner PPI, 116 Military Rd, Neutral Bay, NSW 2089 AUSTRALIA

1. Introduction The NSW (New South Wales, Australia) boiler tube failure reduction program formally commenced in 1988, and has run continuously since then. The aim of the program was to improve overall plant reliability through reduction in the numbers of boiler tube failures across all the major power stations in NSW. The EPRI methodology of the time was chosen for the program, and has remained substantially in place throughout 16 years of industry restructure and introduction of the National Electricity Market (NEM). The program has been dramatically successful, reducing loss of availability from tube leaks from 15% at commencement, to less than 1% today. This paper looks at the economics of tube leaks in NSW focusing on the cost of leaks versus the cost of prevention. This study is ongoing, and is being undertaken in response to international interest shown in the program after a presentation to the Operating Pressure Equipment conference held in Sydney in April 2003.

2. NSW Power Stations NSW has seven major power stations with total capacity of 11,520MW, all black coal fired, shown in Table 1. Power Station Boiler type No x Capacity MW 4 x 660 4 x 660 4 x 500 2 x 660 2 x 300 2 x 660 2 x 500 Estimated short run marginal cost of generation $/MWh 1 11.81 14.55 12.87 12.06 15.68 14.23 13.05

Bayswater Eraring Liddell Mt Piper Munmorah Vales Pt Wallerawang

FW/IHI FW/IHI CE/ICAL FW/IHI Melesco/ICAL CE/ICAL CE/ICAL

Table 1. NSW Power stations participating in the boiler tube failure reduction program Nominal steam conditions for all stations are approx. 540C, 16MPa/540C, 5MPa superheat/reheat temperature and pressure.

Economic analysis of boiler tube failures

OMMI (Vol. 2, Issue 2) Aug. 2003

Originally these stations were owned by the Electricity Commission of NSW, then Pacific Power, however in 1996 the industry was disaggregated into three competing smaller utilities; Delta Electricity, Eraring Energy and Macquarie Generation.

3. Principals of the program The major features of the program upon establishment are as follows2 : -Full management support via an executive committee. This measure ensured the involvement of the whole organisation -Performance targets. Initially these were less than 2% loss of availability due to boiler tube failures within seven years. (At the commencement of the program it is understood that mean loss of availability due to boiler tube failures was of the order of 15%) -Corrective action based on defining and reporting current boiler tube failure problems including cost of each failure, analysis root cause of failure, and application of state of the art repair methods. -Preventative actions based on understanding management, engineering, operations, and maintenance, using a team approach for permanent solutions, implementation of policies and procedures that address boiler tube failure controllable parameters. -Control action based on continuous monitoring and recording of boiler tube failures using standardised cause codes. -Every boiler tube failure problem to be assigned a team of trained personnel to to define root cause and to perform a cost/benefit analysis of alternative corrective/preventative actions. -All boiler tube failure repairs to be inspected and tested and to include quality assurance provisions for welder certification, welding procedures and selection of replacement tube material. -All modes of boiler operation to be controlled by established metal temperature and feedwater quality limits Originally the program was run by a NSW wide Boiler Technical Panel featuring representatives from all power stations, technical experts, and management. This panel met and reported approximately quarterly to discuss progress, and effect of measures taken to reduce failure rate. Two major changes have occurred to the NSW electricity industry since the program was established: In 1996, disaggregation from one body into three competing utilities effectively removed centralised management from the program, and in 1999 the introduction of the National Electricity Market has caused very volatile electricity pricing. Nowadays the discipline to control boiler tube failures comes from the requirements for high plant availability imposed by the NEM. The new disaggregated

Economic analysis of boiler tube failures

OMMI (Vol. 2, Issue 2) Aug. 2003

utilities have responded to this in different ways however all are still guided by the original principals of the program

4. Results of the Program The number of boiler tube failures per year since 1987 is shown in Figure 1. Percent availability losses due to boiler tube failures since 1997 are shown in Figure 2.
Figure 1 NSW Boiler Tube Failures 1987-2003
70 60

Number of failures

50 40 30 20 10 0 1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Year Total boiler tube failures 660MW 500 & 350MW

Figure 2 % Availability loss due to boiler tube failures

1.6

1.4

1.2

0.8

Mean 660MW Mean 500 & 350 MW Mean

0.6

0.4

0.2

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2003

Figure 1 shows an increase in tube failures from 1997, with an abrupt rise in 2003 (Financial year 2002-3). Despite this increase in number of leaks, mean availability

Economic analysis of boiler tube failures

OMMI (Vol. 2, Issue 2) Aug. 2003

losses due to boiler tube failures are generally well below EPRI target of 1%, and indeed show an improving trend through the same period. This result indicates a continuing focus on minimising time out of service from tube failures.

5. The National Electricity Market The National Electricity Market (NEM) commenced operation on 13 December 1998, as part of the process of deregulation of the Australian power industry. A key objective of the NEM is to promote competition at each stage of the electricity production and supply chain. Today, the NEM supplies electricity to 7.7 million Australian customers on an interconnected national grid that runs through Queensland, New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory, Victoria and South Australia. Approximately $8 billion of energy is traded through the NEM per year. All the electricity output from generators is pooled, and then scheduled to meet electricity demand. In the centrally-coordinated dispatch process, the National Electricity Market Mana gement Company (NEMMCO) continually balances electricity supply and demand requirements by scheduling generators to produce sufficient electricity to meet customer demand. Generator operators compete by providing offers and bids for supplying energy to NEMMCO. These bids are comprised of prices and associated quantities the generators are willing to schedule in the dispatch process. The spot market is the whole process whereby prices for electricity are set and then settled. Generators are paid for the electricity they sell to the pool, and retailers and wholesale end-users pay for the electricity they use from the pool.3 Spot prices and electricity demand for 26 September 2003 are shown in Figure 3. Soft electricity prices have been a feature of the NEM for the past year. Comparison of these prices with marginal costs for generation shown in Table 1 is instructive.
Figure 3 NSW Electricity Demand and Spot Price 26 September 2003
25

10000 9000

20

8000 7000

Spot price $

15

6000 5000
MW

10

4000 3000

2000 1000

0
9.0 0 10 .00 11 .00 12 .00 13 .00 14 .00 15 .00 16 .00 17 .00 18 .00 19 .00 20 .00 21 .00 22 .00 23 .00
Time RRP, $ TOTAL DEMAND, MW

0.0 0 1.0 0 2.0 0 3.0 0 4.0 0 5.0 0 6.0 0 7.0 0 8.0 0

Economic analysis of boiler tube failures

OMMI (Vol. 2, Issue 2) Aug. 2003

Price spikes exceeding $4000 per MW occasionally occur when demand is high and problems with generators or interconnectors restrict supply. These periods generally last less than one hour.

6. Cost of boiler tube failures The cost of boiler tube failures is comprised of three main components; the cost of the repair, the cost of start up oil to return unit to service, and the cost of lost p roduction. Repair costs are generally in the range $10-$100,000 depending on the extent of damage and difficulty accessing the failure location. A rule of thumb for repair costs of $10,000 per day out of service seems appropriate for NSW. Average loss of availability since 1997 of 0.71% translates to approximately 2.6 days out of service per leak, or average $26,000 repair cost per boiler tube failure. Start up oil costs are presently approximately $200,000. Estimating cost of lost production is more problematic. Based on the the above chart showing electricty prices, an average pool price of say $25/MWhr RRP could be assumed and by multiplying the loss MWhrs availability a cost of failure can be estimated. For example, a 2.6 day outage of a 660MW unit represents 41,000MWhrs lost production, at a cost of approximately $1M. This is an overly simplistic approach however, as the utility may have had surplus capacity in other units at the time and be able to take up the load, in which case the failure costs v irtually nothing in terms of lost production. The worst case would be the unit taken out of service with a boiler tube failure when the utility has no surplus capacity and replacement power must be bought at a very high pool price of say an average of $300/MWhr RRP. Using the example above, this would have cost $12.3M. 4 It is understood that at present this is a highly unlikely scenario, however as the Australian electricity market tightens over the next three years or so, the risk of such a confluence of events will rise.
Figure 4. Cost of boiler tube failure in a 660MW unit
100

10

$M

0.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Days out of service Nil lost production cost repair High RRP Repair Mean RRP Repair Half RRP Repair

Economic analysis of boiler tube failures

OMMI (Vol. 2, Issue 2) Aug. 2003

Putting these costs together in Figure 4, it can be clearly seen that the market position at the time of failure has an overwhelming effect on its total cost.

7. Cost of prevention of boiler tube failures The occurrence of boiler tube failure mechanisms is shown in Figure 5.
Figure 5 Tube failure types 1987-2003
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Gr it e ro sio n Co rro sio nf ati gu e W eld ing Sh de ort fec ter ts m ov erh ea tin g So otb low er ero sio n Of f lo ad co rro sio Hy n dro ge nd St res am sc ag orr e os ion cra ck ing Hi gh tem pc ree p Air ero sio n Th erm al fat igu e M ate ria ld efe cts ero sio n

total

1998-03

Since 1998 thermal fatigue, grit erosion, and welding defects have caused most failures. Looking at the total number of failures since 1987, material defects and corrosion fatigue caused many leaks but h now fallen to insignificance. Dealing ave with the prevention of these mechanisms first, material defect failures were almost entirely due to sigma phase embrittlement of superheater tube bends at one power station. In this case prevention was effected by closure of the entire plant during the early days of the program. This effect of reducing tube leaks by closing older plant and commissioning new is shown in Figure 6, where the curve representing age of plant mirrors somewhat the boiler tube failure curve during the early years . In the period 1987-1990 large capital investments were made in new plant, and in the refurbishment of Liddell and Munmorah power stations. In terms of boiler tube failure prevention these refurbishments addressed reheater standby corrosion and waterwall tube hydrogen embrittlement/corrosion fatigue through large scale tubing replacement works. Since then no capital spending of any significance has been made to address boiler tube failures and the mean age of plant has been rising continuously. Tube failure reduction has been achieved using targeted management, placing great reliance on pro-active measures during scheduled outages.

St ea m

Economic analysis of boiler tube failures

OMMI (Vol. 2, Issue 2) Aug. 2003

Figure 6. Boiler tube failures 1987-2003

160 140 120
No of boiler tube failures

100 80 60 40 20 0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Mean hours service per boiler x1000hrs Installed capacity MW x1000

Year

Grit erosion/sootblower erosion is presently the major cause of boiler tube failu res, affecting all the plant in NSW. Low market prices for electricity have forced utilities to reduce marginal costs and consequently coal ash contents have tended to rise as cheaper coals are purchased. As erosion is a progressive mechanism, the rising age of plants also means tube thicknesses in erosion zones are generally decreasing. This effect (which has parallels in other progressive mechanisms such as creep and fatigue) tends to increase the probability of failure as plant ages. In most power stations, management of erosion consists of surveys of tube thickness and shield condition, followed by installation of shields as required, or selective tube replacement if wall thicknesses are below minimum requirements. It is estimated that such management costs of the order of $30-50,000 per outage, but prevents the occurrence of approximately 5 leaks per boiler per year. This management therefore saves of the -10 order of $1-2M in repair costs, (assuming no lost production costs). If there is market exposure, higher savings are achieved. Most erosion failures occur at locations that are beyond this conventional management approach. Finned economiser tube is such a location due to the double difficulties of poor/impossible access for thickness measurement and shielding. Some plants are presently considering replacing economisers, however capital cost of approximately $10.5M is difficult to justify unless present rate of tube failure (0.25 leaks per year per boiler) increases. Economiser tube bends close to casing walls are another such location.5 In this case it is the difficulty obtaining access to the tubes for thickness measurements and corrective measures that leads to tube failures. Removal of casing/tube surveys costs approximately $1.1M, however this expenditure has been justified due to rising failure rate estimated as 4 leaks per year per boiler over the -5 next four years. Casing removal during this work is shown in Figure 7.

Economic analysis of boiler tube failures

OMMI (Vol. 2, Issue 2) Aug. 2003

Figure 7. Economiser tube bends exposed to conduct tube surveys, shield installation and selective tube replacement

Wall thickness data from surveys are shown in Figure 8. It can be seen that many tubes had wall thickness of 1mm or below.

Figure 8. Prim Econ Bank Rear Bend wall Thickness Data

Average
4.5 4 3.5
Thickness mm

3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171

Minimum

Tube No (from RHS to LHS)

Thermal fatigue is another failure mechanism that has been on the increase over the past five years.This increase is thought to be a result of widespread cycling operation (see Figure 3 for an indication of daily plant cycling trend), and the steady aging of plant as discussed above. Thermal fatigue generally occurs at weld toes and its detection during outages requires careful preparation and testing. This is a laborious process usually involving local removal of oxide followed by surface non destructive testing. Such a location is shown in Figure 9.

Economic analysis of boiler tube failures

OMMI (Vol. 2, Issue 2) Aug. 2003

Figure 9. Thermal fatigue cracking at saddle lugs welded to a reheater tube. Presence of highly adherent oxide at weld toes greatly increases time and cost of conducting surveys

It is understood that targeted inspections of known problem areas in boilers cost approximately $30-50K per outage. These surveys are effective in detecting cracking, however it is not possible to conduct 100% inspections of all susceptible locations during outages. It is therefore expected that the trend of increasing thermal fatigue failures will continue. To illustrate this point, the example of external stress corrosion cracking affecting the stainless steel tubes of the secondary superheater panels in some of the 660MW boilers is instructive. This mechanism calls for a very similar mana gement approach to the one used for thermal fatigue (with similar costs per outage of $30-50K), however it achieves full success in preventing tube failures. This success is due to cracking being confined to relatively isolated and by now well known locations which can be fully prepared and inspected during planned outages, despite the handicap of all work needing to be undertaken from furnace high climbers. It is estimated that 1-5 leaks per boiler per year are prevented by this careful management. Cost of replacement secondary superheaters is estimated at around $5M, an expenditure difficult to justify providing success of present management approach continues. Welding defects are causing a rising number of boiler tube failures, especially in the older power stations. These defects usually date from time of construction, and are distributed randomly throughout the boiler. With the exception of badly profiled/wrongly sized welds which can be found with visual surveys, detection of these defects is beyond the normal management approach. This is therefore another mechanism where the trend of increasing failures is expected to continue. To date the power stations constructed later than 1980 have not shown many failures of original welds and it is hoped that better non destructive testing undertaken during their construction may have prevented many faulty welds from being placed in service. A feature of the NSW boiler tube failure reduction program has been the continuing success against furnace wall tube hydrogen embittlement and corrosion fatigue, as

Economic analysis of boiler tube failures

OMMI (Vol. 2, Issue 2) Aug. 2003

10

shown in Figure 5. This success is even more impressive when it is considered that in the 660MW boilers no tube failures due to these mechanisms have occurred. In the plants where these mechanisms remain active, rolling programs of planned tube replacement are used to minimise failures, estimated to cost around $70-200K per outage depending on extent of replacements. It has been the experience in NSW that once these mechanisms take hold they are very difficult to el minate, emphasising the i importance of constant, excellent feedwater control as the major preventative measure. Creep life of superheater and reheater tubing is monitored continuously using an online computer based system in most boilers in NSW. Ultrasonic bore oxide measurements, and occasional tube sampling is also undertaken to cross check results. Moderate steam condition chosen for NSW boilers help yield long creep lives for most superheater and reheater tubing, and the few failures due to long term creep rupture that have occurred have been confined to some under-designed stages of reheater tubing in some 500MW boilers. Short term stress rupture has caused most creep failures in NSW boilers. The root cause is almost invariably foreign material causing steam circuit blockages, with the usual culprits being pieces of hacksaw blade, coins, welding debris, and gasket material. These failures are characterised by the explosive release of large volumes of steam and can therefore quickly create escalating numbers of consequential failures unless the boiler is promptly shut down. For this reason these failures usually take longer to repair and result in greater than average loss of availability. This is reflected in the statistics for 2001 (see Figure 2) when several of these failures occurred in the one year. Preventative measures are inexpensive however, involving vigilance against entry of foreign materials during outages and selective radiography of susceptible locations such as flow restricting devices (both measures estimated to total less than $10K per outage).

8. Conclusions The NSW boiler tube failure reduction program has saved the industry millions of dollars through dramatically increased availability of boilers. Reduction in tube leaks has been achieved without significant capital expenditure, instead relying on targeted management during planned outages, and very close attention to boiler water chemistry. The cost of this management has been shown to be significantly less than the cost of the tube leaks saved, even in times of a soft electricity market. A rise in the number of failures over the past five years is attributed to the aging of plant causing increasing numbers of leaks due to thermal fatigue, erosion, and original weld defects. This trend is expected to continue. The future presents several challenges, with an expected tightening electricity market likely to increase the cost of boiler tube failures coming at a time when number of failures is expected to rise.

Economic analysis of boiler tube failures

OMMI (Vol. 2, Issue 2) Aug. 2003

11

9. Acknowledgements The author thanks the NSW power station plant owners, operations staff and asset managers for their continuing cooperation.

10. References 1. SRMC and LRMC of Generators in the NEM, ACIL Tasman, Draft of 21 March 2003. 2. ECNSW Policy Statement-Boile r Tube Failure Reduction Program, 17 June 1988. 3. National Electricity Market Management Company official release September 2003. 4. Based on communication with power station operations manager. 5. Based on communication with boiler plant manager September 2003.