Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Valuation - HDIL
Valuation - HDIL
MARKET
Month
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Open
13013.7
12811.9
13987.8
14610.3
14685.2
15344
15402
17357
20130.2
19547.1
20325.3
17820.7
17227.6
15771.7
17560.2
16591.5
13480
14064.3
14413
13006.7
10209.4
9162.94
9720.55
9340.37
8762.88
9745.77
11635.2
14746.5
14506.4
15694.8
High
13387
14383.7
14576.4
14683.4
15868.9
15542.4
17361.5
20238.2
20204.2
20498.1
21206.8
18895.3
17227.6
17480.7
17735.7
16632.7
15130.1
15579.8
15107
13203.9
10945.4
10188.5
10469.7
9724.87
10127.1
11492.1
14930.5
15600.3
15732.8
16002.5
STOCK
Low
12316.1
12425.5
13554.3
13947
14638.9
13779.9
15323.1
17144.6
18182.8
18886.4
15332.4
16457.7
14677.2
15298
16196
13405.5
12514
14002.4
12153.6
7697.39
8316.39
8467.43
8631.6
8619.22
8047.17
9546.29
11621.3
14017
13220
14684.5
Close
Month
13072.1
Jul-07
13872.4
Aug-07
14544.5
Sep-07
14650.5
Oct-07
15551
Nov-07
15318.6
Dec-07
17291.1
Jan-08
19838
Feb-08
19363.2
Mar-08
20287
Apr-08
17648.7
May-08
17578.7
Jun-08
15644.4
Jul-08
17287.3
Aug-08
16415.6
Sep-08
13461.6
Oct-08
14355.8
Nov-08
14564.5
Dec-08
12860.4
Jan-09
9788.06
Feb-09
9092.72
Mar-09
9647.31
Apr-09
9424.24
May-09
8891.61
Jun-09
9708.5
Jul-09
11403.3
Aug-09
14625.3
Sep-09
14493.8
Oct-09
15670.3
Nov-09
15666.6
Dec-09
Open Price
High Price
Low Price
Close Price
Rm
567.5 633.45 473.5 572.9
565.5 574.7 478.2 536.3
538 667.7
522 626.6
636.5
820
592 672.7
690
828
655 821.3
835 1103.9 805.3 1074
1089
1432 620.2 886.8
908
1035
727 856.4
848
848
484 658.7
665.4 798.8 576.3
772
772
873
688 724.5
731.3
742 380.6 387.1
385 529.7 326.5 450.4
442 523.3
274 288.4
285.1
331 151.5 170.2
172.5 175.25 90.2 144.3
149.9 154.8 72.25 76.85
77.75 179.75
69
130
132.5 149.6 85.4 96.55
91
94 72.5 73.4
72.5
88.8 62.5 81.9
82.7 160.2 81.25 146.8
151
315 149.9
284
287.4 329.5 208.3 232.7
232 293.4 178.8
277
278
321 246.6 317.4
320
340 288.6 322.2
322 410.8 310.1 316.5
319 380.25 288.7 325.1
326
373 325.9 360.7
Ri
6.12%
-6.38%
4.84%
16.83%
0.73%
7.36%
6.15%
22.09%
-1.49%
30.77%
12.88%
-17.43%
14.73%
-3.43%
-2.39%
-23.08%
4.77%
17.20%
-13.00%
-6.16%
-0.40%
-46.57%
-11.00%
16.34%
10.50%
-35.97%
-5.04%
-40.97%
-17.99%
-15.25%
6.64%
-46.72%
1.45%
69.10%
-11.70%
-25.70%
-23.89%
-23.98%
-7.10%
11.58%
6.10%
79.24%
-2.31%
93.46%
-5.65%
-18.06%
9.19%
19.04%
17.46%
14.57%
28.26%
1.53%
-0.90%
-1.77%
8.12%
2.72%
-0.02%
10.94%
9.32%
-8.53%
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
15691.3
17186.2
15838.6
16947.5
17473.5
16339.3
16438.5
17555
17536.9
16942.8
17679.3
17911.3
18027.1
20094.1
20272.5
19530
20621.6
18425.2
17982.3
19463.1
19224.1
18527.1
18975
18352.2
16963.7
16256
17540.6
16555.9
15534.7
17179.6
17714.6
17430
17370.9
16217.5
17142.5
17493.2
17290.5
17530.9
17790.3
16669.3
17793
18047.9
17536.9
17919.6
18237.6
18475.3
20268
20854.6
21108.6
20552
20664.8
18691
19575.2
19811.1
19253.9
18873.4
19131.7
18440.1
17211.8
17908.1
17702.3
17003.7
17259
18523.8
18040.7
17664.1
17432.3
17448.5
15356.7
15805.2
15330.6
16577.8
15982.1
15652
16438.5
17276.8
15960.2
16318.4
17395.6
17820
18027.1
19769
18954.8
19074.6
18038.5
17295.6
17792.2
18976.2
17786.1
17314.4
18131.9
15765.5
15801
15745.4
15478.7
15135.9
15358
17061.6
16920.6
17010.2
15809.7
15749
17126.8
15896.3
16926.2
17464.8
16358
16429.6
17527.8
17558.7
16944.6
17700.9
17868.3
17971.1
20069.1
20032.3
19521.3
20509.1
18327.8
17823.4
19445.2
19136
18503.3
18845.9
18197.2
16676.8
16453.8
17705
16123.5
15454.9
17193.6
17752.7
17404.2
17318.8
16218.5
17430
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
365
327
302
288
268
225
247.5
271
253.5
262.7
250
189
196
131.8
159.1
176.9
162
168
160.9
147.9
101.6
97
99.5
62.9
53.75
79.5
113
85.5
81.9
67.2
87.75
79.1
68
392.25
342.75
328
308.55
269.05
257.7
282
299.6
284.9
290.95
268
217
197.7
162.9
178.6
198.9
168.9
180.65
175.45
147.9
114.7
102
103.35
67
84.1
135.4
117.4
93.3
84.25
87.8
93.05
86.45
72.2
304
289.6
276.6
262.4
201.9
214.5
237
248.8
250.6
244.1
160.1
177.1
129
122.5
150.7
158.5
135.1
148.1
140.7
95
96.45
89.2
60.05
52.3
52.1
77.15
80.55
77.5
59.6
61.5
71
66.75
66.2
329.9
301.2
286.2
269.8
226
250
266.3
252.2
259.1
247.3
189.2
194.3
131.5
158
175.7
161.1
168
159.7
142.5
102.4
98
99.8
60.6
53.3
79.55
114.4
85.45
80.6
67.4
86.95
79.2
68.3
69.5
-7.18%
-8.71%
6.48%
-4.96%
3.18%
-5.73%
-6.34%
-16.23%
0.44%
10.60%
6.68%
6.54%
0.18%
-5.29%
-3.50%
2.74%
4.46%
-4.57%
0.95%
-23.48%
0.58%
2.67%
11.67%
-32.30%
-0.18%
20.15%
-2.55%
11.17%
5.06%
-8.31%
-10.64%
4.28%
-2.75%
-4.91%
9.10%
-10.77%
-1.59%
-28.18%
-3.31%
-4.25%
1.85%
1.84%
-3.44%
-39.28%
-8.36%
-12.05%
-1.34%
49.25%
7.60%
43.75%
-8.93%
-25.27%
-4.15%
-5.68%
11.25%
-16.38%
3.25%
29.01%
-1.96%
-8.91%
-0.49%
-13.76%
-6.35%
1.76%
7.47% -100.00%
Beta
5 year
3 year
0.361801588
1 year
0.39184461
Rm
Rf
8.30%
CAPM
6 month
-0.114140874
Ke = Rf + Beta(Rm-Rf)
Ke
7.59%
Kd
6.75%
Weight
Cost
7.34%
0.81
7.59%
0.19
6.75%
-2.308294834
BALANCE SHEET
Mar '17
12 mths
Sources Of Funds
Total Share Capital
Equity Share Capital
Share Application Money
Preference Share Capital
Reserves
Revaluation Reserves
Networth
Secured Loans
Unsecured Loans
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Application Of Funds
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Depreciation
Net Block
Capital Work in Progress
Investments
Inventories
Sundry Debtors
Cash and Bank Balance
Total Current Assets
Loans and Advances
Fixed Deposits
Total CA, Loans & Advances
Deffered Credit
Current Liabilities
Provisions
Total CL & Provisions
Net Current Assets
Miscellaneous Expenses
Total Assets
Book Value (in Rs Cr)
Shares in issue (lakhs)
Book Value per Share(Rs)
Mar '13
12 mths
Mar '12
12 mths
Mar '08
12 mths
819.3447519
819.3447519
0
0
8,304.00
0
9,123.34
3,252.11
0
3,252.11
12,375.46
716.499919
716.499919
0
0
7,960.00
0
8,676.50
3,409.33
0
3,409.33
12,085.83
626.5642548
626.5642548
0
0
7,835.00
0
8,461.56
3,516.39
0
3,516.39
11,977.96
547.9173898
547.9173898
0
0
7,494.00
0
8,041.92
3,612.55
0
3,612.55
11,654.46
479.1423445
479.1423445
0
0
7,426.00
0
7,905.14
3,334.80
0
3,334.80
11,239.94
419
419
0
0
9,617.60
0
10,036.60
2,387.50
0
2,387.50
12,424.10
415
415
259.2
0
8,962.88
0
9,637.08
4,195.39
0
4,195.39
13,832.47
358.84
358.84
78
0
6,680.90
0
7,117.74
4,051.72
0
4,051.72
11,169.46
275.49
275.49
0
0
4,192.15
0
4,467.64
4,093.32
50
4,143.32
8,610.96
214.27
214.27
0
0
3,422.95
0
3,637.22
1,946.08
1,166.67
3,112.75
6,749.97
Mar '17
12 mths
Mar '16
12 mths
Mar '15
12 mths
Mar '14
12 mths
Mar '13
12 mths
Mar '12
12 mths
Mar '11
12 mths
Mar '10
12 mths
Mar '09
12 mths
Mar '08
12 mths
312.54
284.12
258.29
234.81
213.47
194.06
188.39
190.53
62.93
55.31
30.42
282.11
547.30
3376.92
9121.65
249.07
155.61
9526.33
933.62
157.61
27.66
256.47
471.26
2790.85
9282.45
264.70
134.36
9681.51
1098.37
164.33
25.14
233.15
624.23
2306.48
9074.32
254.03
161.52
9489.88
1292.20
218.61
22.86
211.96
784.25
1906.18
8635.55
239.26
138.34
9013.15
1520.24
190.97
20.78
192.69
849.88
1575.36
8046.77
208.69
118.50
8373.96
1788.52
214.16
18.89
10.68
9.83
4.89
2.61
175.17
6.86
1,301.95
10,569.15
278.65
225.33
11,073.13
3,817.40
0
177.71
91.07
785.95
10,086.48
342.85
28.12
10,457.45
4,144.78
197.89
180.7
1,389.09
596.48
8,033.66
200.72
297.33
8,531.71
1,211.52
490.05
58.04
1,584.37
302.92
6,441.70
165.4
22.41
6,629.51
885.2
52.76
52.7
1,178.02
212.56
5,102.85
55.82
19.31
5,177.98
461.78
330.09
10617.56
0.00
2220.60
227.09
2447.69
8169.86
0.00
12376.20
10944.21
0.00
2164.58
212.23
2376.81
8567.41
0.00
12085.98
11000.70
0.00
1938.55
247.14
2185.69
8815.01
0.00
11978.87
10724.36
0.00
1717.87
253.84
1971.71
8752.65
0.00
11655.05
10376.63
0.00
1513.81
240.06
1753.87
8622.76
0.00
11240.69
14,890.53
14,800.12
10,233.28
7,567.47
5,969.85
0
3,768.20
182.19
3,950.39
10,940.14
0
12,424.12
0
1,884.46
137.91
2,022.37
12,777.75
0
13,832.48
0
808.41
421.69
1,230.10
9,003.18
0
11,169.45
0
614.45
287.37
901.82
6,665.65
0
8,610.98
0
493.54
171.14
664.68
5,305.17
1.54
6,749.99
9124.08
8193.447519
111.36
8676.65
7164.99919
121.10
8462.48
6265.642548
135.06
8042.50
5479.173898
146.78
7905.88
4791.423445
165.00
100364.03
4,190.04
239.53
93778.45
4,150.04
225.97
CAGR
COMMENTS
1.041733279 Projected Debt is the average of the last 5 year debt values
Projected Debt is the average of the last 5 year debt values
Mar '13
12 mths
Mar '12
12 mths
1861.7088
0
1662.24
0
917.42
0
1,802.63
0
1,491.99
0
1,719.29
0
1,802.63
1,491.99
1,719.29
2335.33
2085.11
1861.71
1662.24
917.42
122.84943 121.636192
119.09016
115.1168
109.154
149.25
115.57
106.36
95.25
Stock Adjustments
1451.43
1282.60
1509.12
1525.69
1488.32
607.28
2,415.18
1,591.97
1,338.85
Total Income
4189.85
3739.56
3713.32
3502.51
3259.71
1,673.95
4,333.38
3,190.32
3,153.39
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
62.1666029 55.5058954 49.5588352
0
44.24896
0
39.508
0
37.82
0
60.97
0
45.15
0
39.27
1496.016
31.26
16.11
-39.702
1543.19
Mar '13
592.95
3,191.75
1,914.77
1,653.72
0
41.03
0
671.8
Mar '12
34.12
8.69
-105.25
3,190.28
Mar '11
31.86
11.68
-69.07
1,934.39
Mar '10
56.87
12.32
-6.19
1,755.99
Mar '09
Expenditure
Raw Materials
Operating Profit
PBDIT
Interest
PBDT
Depreciation
Other Written Off
Profit Before Tax
Extra-ordinary items
PBT (Post Extra-ord Items)
Tax
Reported Net Profit
Total Value Addition
Preference Dividend
Equity Dividend
Corporate Dividend Tax
12 mths
1638.76
1761.61
12 mths
1607.37
1716.52
12 mths
12 mths
12 mths
12 mths
852.9
1,002.15
1,027.53
1,143.10
1,149.57
1,255.93
1,302.15
1,397.40
578.33
81.81
515.55
578.19
1542.09
12 mths
1449.85
1571.49
1341.36
12 mths
1658.45
1777.54
12 mths
1659.02
1774.14
1540.18
1530.29
1491.42
423.82
1,061.29
740.38
819.21
12.914693
11.74063
8.44
7.25
5.1
2.36
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.54
1524.90
1325.73
1525.98
1517.38
1479.68
415.38
1,054.04
735.28
815.31
12.7603232 10.791936
8.05328
19.3044
16.092
1537.66
1336.53
1534.03
1536.68
1495.77
507.427257 441.053846 506.230403 507.104692 493.605498
1030.23
895.47
1027.80
1029.58
1002.17
Total Value
?
?
?
?
Addition
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0
0
9.56
424.94
28.41
386.96
0.95
1,054.99
157.62
896.42
-5.64
729.64
132.99
602.3
75.56
890.87
60.46
830.42
671.81
3,190.29
1,934.38
1,755.99
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5479.1739 4791.42345
18.79
20.92
0.00
0.00
4,190.04
9.24
0
4,150.04
21.6
0
3,588.43
16.78
0
2,754.93
30.14
0
Crores)
Mar '08 CAGR
12 mths
COMMENTS
-
2,379.87 expected to increse from FY 14 by 12% over the- averge of last 5 years
0
2.08% of sales
2,379.87
79.34
8311.2
3,950.34
6,409.55
0
0
14.33 percent of sales
0.023767928
4,603.55
percent of sales
33.45 percent of sales
6.83 percent of sales
-18 percent of sales
4,640.16
Mar '08
197.54
11956.74
156.3
80.55
-198.51
12 mths
1,690.05
1,769.39
165.38
1,604.01
1.36
0.51
1,602.14
0.03
1,602.17
191.65
1,410.51
4,640.16
0
106.28
730.56
0.0375
0.024588682
2,142.72
65.83
50
Cash Flow
PROJECTED (In Rs Crores)
Mar '17
Mar '16
12 mths
12 mths
PAT
1030.23
895.47
DEPRECIATION
17.19
15.63
INTEREST
219.52
230.13
OPERATING CASH FLOWS W/O WORKING CAPITAL
1266.94
CHANGE
1141.23
Mar '15
12 mths
1027.80
14.21
237.36
1279.36
Mar '14
12 mths
1029.58
12.91
243.85
1286.34
Mar '13
12 mths
1002.17
11.74
225.10
1239.01
Mar '12
12 mths
386.96
8.44
578.33
973.73
Mar '11
12 mths
896.42
7.25
81.81
985.48
Mar '10
12 mths
602.30
5.10
515.55
1122.95
Mar '09
12 mths
830.42
2.36
578.19
1410.97
288.58
288.58
288.58
288.58
-412.6
855.83
635
28.66
978.36
852.65
990.78
997.76
950.43
1386.33
129.65
487.95
1382.31
-366.74
-366.74
-366.74
-366.74
-366.74
-503.46
-327.45
-97.07
-125.53
0
0.00
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
219.52
74.83
273.50
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
230.13
74.83
273.50
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
237.36
74.83
273.50
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
243.85
43.53
947.30
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
225.10
210.51
0.00
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
578.33
59.29
343.67
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
81.81
24.99
-11.60
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
515.55
27.95
1,070.57
0
0
0
0.00
0.00
578.19
-219.52
-31.46
-38.69
-45.18
678.67
-788.84
202.57
-552.14
464.43
3204.50
3596.60
2750.05
3204.50
2164.69
2750.05
1578.85
2164.69
316.49
1578.85
222.46
316.49
217.69
222.46
2108.88
1947.62
387.67
2108.88
rores)
Mar '08
12 mths
1410.51
1.36
165.38
1577.25
336.03
1241.22
-780.21
51.44
763.59
0
0
0
106.28
730.56
165.38
-290.07
216.73
387.67
FCFE Calculation
PAT
DEPRECIATION
LESS: CHANGE IN WORKING CAPITAL
LESS: CHANGE IN CAPEX
ADD: ISSUE OF DEBT
LESS: REDEMPTION OF DEBT
ADD: ISSUE OF PREFERENCE SHARES
LESS: REDEMTION OF PREFERENCE SHARES
FCFE
Mar '13
12 mths
1002.17
11.74
-288.58
366.74
947.30
947.30
0
0
Mar '12
12 mths
386.96
8.44
412.6
503.46
0.00
393.44
0
0
935.75
-914.10
1575.72
Mar '12
12 mths
386.96
8.44
387.4811
782.88
412.6
503.46
1,698.94
958.48
-855.83
327.45
430.10
Mar '17
12 mths
1030.23
17.19
-288.58
366.74
0.00
0.00
0
0
969.26
963.85
964.33
1083.73
1766.48
FCFF Calculation
PAT
ADD: DEPRECIATON
ADD: INTEREST(NET OF TAX)
NOPAT
LESS: CHANGE IN WORKING CAPITAL
LESS: CHANGE IN CAPEX
FCFF
1194.50
-288.58
366.74
1,272.66
1065.29
-288.58
366.74
1,143.45
1201.04
-288.58
366.74
1,279.20
1205.87
-288.58
366.74
1,284.03
1164.73
-288.58
366.74
1,242.89
952.82
-635
97.07
414.89
1220.17
-28.66
125.53
1,317.04
)
Mar '08
12 mths
1410.51
1.36
-336.03
780.21
763.59
751.76
0
0
979.52
)
Mar '08
12 mths
1410.51
1.36
110.8046
1522.67
-336.03
780.21
1,966.85
Mar '17
1,272.66
Mar '16
1,143.45
Mar '15
1,279.20
Mar '14
1,284.03
Mar '13
1,242.89
Mar '12
1,698.94
7.34%
ADJUSTED FCFF
ENTERPRISE VALUE
NET DEBT
FAIR VALUE OF EQUITY
SHARES O/S
6298.23347
2,387.50
3,910.73
41.90
93.3340366
69.5
-25.54%
0.00
DISCOUNT RATE
7.34%
0.00%
0.00
69.5
0.00%
100364.03
2912.08
41.90
239.53
69.50
-70.98%
MULTIPLES VALUATION
EQUITY MULTIPLE
PRICE EARNING (PER)
PRICE-BOOK (P/B)
PRICE-CASH FLOW
Mar '12
7.53
12.16
2.10
Mar '13
2.91
0.37
3.06
11.70
11.70
MARKET CAP
NET PROFIT
BOOK VALUE
2912.08
386.96
239.53
2912.08
1002.17
7905.88
ENTERPRISE VALUE
SALES
PBITD
PBIT
NET DEBT
PREF SHARE CAPITAL
5299.58
917.42
1002.15
993.71
2,387.50
0
6246.88
1662.24
1716.52
1704.78
3,334.80
0
5.78
5.29
5.33
3.76
3.64
3.66
ENTERPRISE MULTIPLE
ENTERPRISE VALUE/ SALES
ENTERPRISE VALUE/ PBITD
ENTERPRISE VALUE/ PBIT
EV/ SALES
EV/ PBITD
EV/ PBIT
Mar '12
EV/EBITDA
EBITDA
FIRM VALUE
NET DEBT
FAIR EQUITY VALUE
SHARES O/S
PER SHARE FAIR VALUE
PER SHARE MARKET VALUE
PREMIUM/ (DISCOUNT)
5.29
1002.15
5299.5778
2,387.50
2,912.08
41.90
69.5
69.5
0.00%
VALUATION SUMMARY
VALUATION METRIC
WEIGHTAGE
DCF
NAV
EBITDA EV
DDM
93.33
239.53
69.50
0.00
0.4
0.5
0.1
0
37.33
119.77
6.95
0.00
1.00
164.05
120.3
-26.67%
RECOMMENDATION
BUY