Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ელექტროენერგეტიკული პოლიტიკის მოდელირება და ანალიზი (სალექციო კურსი)
ელექტროენერგეტიკული პოლიტიკის მოდელირება და ანალიზი (სალექციო კურსი)
2013
-
- -
(EWMI) ,
(G-PAC) .
,
(USAID) .
.
Development of new course in Electricity Policy Modeling and Analysis project is implemented
through the Policy, Advocacy, and Civil Society Development in Georgia (G-PAC) program of EastWest Management Institute (EWMI).
This program was made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United
States Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States
Government.
,
, USAID-
.
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20/01/2013
1.
..................................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. ............................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2. .................................................................................. 2
1.3. Dramatis Personae .......... 5
1.4. ............................................................................................... 7
1.4.1. : ............................................................................................... 7
1.4.2. : ............................................................................... 8
1.4.3 . : .............................................................. 9
1.4.4. : ............................................................... 10
1.5. .................................................... 11
1.5.1. ? ............................................ 12
1.5.2. ................................................................................................. 13
1.5.3. ................................................................................................. 19
1.6.
.................................................................................................................................................. 23
2. .........................................26
2.1. ....................................................................................................... 26
2.2. 90- ; ................................................................... 29
2.3. .................................................................... 32
2.4.
............................................................................................................................................. 36
2.4.1. ............... 41
3. ..............................................................................................46
3.1 ................................................. 46
3.2. ........................................ 47
3.3. ,
........................................................................ 51
3.4. ................................................................................. 59
3.5. ......................................................... 64
4. ....................................................................................................71
4.1. - .........................71
4.2. ........................................ 73
4.3.
............................................................................................................................................. 74
4.4. ................................................................................................. 78
4.5. ................. 81
4.6 :
..................................................................................................................................................................... 84
5. ................................................................................................................89
5.1. ............................................ 89
5.1.1. .................................................................................................................. 90
5.1.2. .......................................................................................... 91
5.1.3. .............................................................................................................. 91
5.2. ........................................................................... 91
5.2.1. ............................................................ 92
5.2.2. .................................... 95
5.2.3. ................................................... 96
5.3. ........................................ 97
5.3.1. .......................................................................................................... 98
5.3.2. ........................................................ 99
5.3.3. ...................................... 101
5.3.4. ........................................................................................................ 102
5.4. ................................................................................... 102
5.4.1. ................................................................................................. 102
5.4.2. ...................................................................................................... 103
5.5. () .................................................................. 103
5.5.1. ........................................................................................................... 104
5.5.2. ........................................................................................ 104
5.5.3. ...................................................................................................... 104
5.5.4. ................................................................................................................ 105
6. :
................................................................................................................................................108
6.1. ........................................................................................................................................... 108
6.2. .......................... 110
6.3. ........................................... 116
6.3.1. ........................................................... 116
............................................................................ 166
8.2.1. .......................................................... 167
8.2.2. ............................................................................................... 167
8.2.3. ................................................................. 168
8.2.4. ....................................................................................................... 170
8.2.5. - ................................................................................................ 170
8.2.6. ............................................................................... 172
8.2.7. ............................................................ 173
8.2.8. ................................................................................. 175
8.3.
................................................................................................................................................... 177
8.3.1.
................................................................................................................................. 178
8.3.2.
................................................................................................................................. 180
8.3.3.
...................................................................................................... 181
8.4. : ...................... 181
8.4.1. .. 183
8.4.2. .............. 184
8.4.3. (Power Pool) .............................. 185
8.4.4. - ............. 186
8.4.5. ...................... 188
9. ...............................................................................................................................191
9.1. ................................... 191
9.2. ..................................................................... 194
9.3. .................................................................................... 196
9.4.
.................................................................................................................................. 200
9.5. / ....... 202
10. .................................................................212
10.1. ...................................................................... 212
10.1.1. ..................................................................................................... 212
10.1.2. . ........................................................................................................................ 215
10.1.3. .......................................................................................................................... 217
10.1.4. ............................................................................................................................. 219
10.1.5. .......................................................................................................... 220
10.2. ............................................... 221
10.2.1. (Back-up Capacity) .......................................................................... 222
10.2.2. ...................................................................................... 222
10.3. ............................................ 223
10.3.1. ....................................................................................................................... 225
10.4.
..................................................................................................................... 226
10.4.1. ........................... 226
10.4.2. ..................................................................................................... 226
10.5. .......................................................... 229
10.6. ( ) 230
1.
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24
/:
1. . . .
2012 .
2. USAID-
. 2015. , 2012
3. Kirschen S. D., Strbac., Fundamentals of Power System Economics, 2004, John Wiley &
Sons, Ltd
4. Edwards W.D., Energy Trading and Investing , 2009
5. Klimstra J., Hotakainen M., Smart Power Generation , 2011
6. Harris C., Electricity Markets :Pricing, Structures and Economics, 2006, John Wiley & Sons
Ltd
7. Morgan G., Apt J., Lave L., Global climate change, the US electric power sector and climate
change mitigation, 2005.
8. ()
- www.esco.ge
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(PMUM) - http://dgpys.teias.gov.tr/dgpys/ www.teias.gov.tr
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44
/:
1. . , .
2011.
2. Chris Harris, Electricity Markets, Pricing Structures and Economics, 2006, Wiley
3. Perez-Arriaga, Ignacio J., et al. "Traditional Regulation of the Electricity Industry."
4. Steven Stoft, Power System Economics, 2002
45
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64
3 .
65
66
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67
3
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.
68
69
/:
1. .
, , 2011.
2. Andrew Burge, Sustainable electricity generation, 2004.
3. California Energy Commission, Comparative costs of california central station electricity
generation, 2010.
4. Chris Harris, Electricity Markets: Pricing, Structures and Economics, 2006, The Wiley Finance
Series
5. Daniel Kirschen and Goran Strbac, Fundamentals of Power System Economics, 2004.
6. Erik Delarue, Modeling Electricity Generation Systems, 2009.
7. International Renewable Energy Agency, Renewable Energy Technologies: Cost Analysis Series,
Volume 1: Power Sector, Issue 3/5, 2012.
8. An EU Energy Security and Solidarity Action Plan, Energy Sources, Production Costs and
Performance of Technologiesfor Power Generation, Heating and Transport, 2008.
70
4.
,
.
-
.
/ , :
(Cost-of-service remuneration/Rate of Return Regulation)
, (Yardstick competition)
X (RPI-X)
.
.
4.1. -
, .
- ,
,
.
: ,
,
.
(500-220
, .
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.
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220-380
.
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.
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)
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. ,
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(TSO
Transmission
System
Operator)
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-
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72
,
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,
()
4.2.
() ,
, .
,
, , ..
,
,
.
.
,
; ,
6.2 , 13
, 3% 21%-30.
, ,
.
,
30
- Engineering, Economics & Regulation of the Electric Power Sector, session 5&6
73
,
31 .
,
:
;
;
.
,
.
4.3. /
32,
, (Cost-of-service
remuneration/Rate of Return Regulation),
(Yardstick competition), X
(RPI-X regulation).
.
(Cost-of-service remuneration/Rate of
Return Regulation) ,
,
- 1990-
. ,
(Revenue)
- 33 (Cost)
(Return on assets).
31
.
Price Regulation Methods, prepared for the European Copper Institute / http://www.leonardoenergy.org/sites/leonardo-energy/files/root/pdf/2010/Price%20Regulation%20Paper.pdf
33
, .
32
74
:
4.3.
.
,
34 ,
: ,
,
.
, , ,
,
,
. ,
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. ,
, .
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36
4-5 . :
34
.
- .
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.
35
75
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, .
, ,
.
, .
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. ,
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.
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,
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(
:
- ,
(%),
- (%).
76
4.4. RPI-X
,
. /
/,
. X-
. ,
.
X- .
.
4.5. RPI-X
, (A+B)
, (A) (B) .
77
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/ , X
, . X
3-5 ,
.
, ,
, . X
,
.
,
, ,
. , X
(Benchmarking).
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.
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,
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, :
4.6.
78
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.
,
.
() () 10 20 .
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.
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.
79
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.
81
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,
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4.12.
,
,
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(System
Average
Interruption
Frequency
Index)
( /),
(Ni)
(Nt);
SAIDI
(System
Average
Interruption
Duration
Index)
(/)
82
(Ni) (ri)
(Nt);
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(Customer
Average
Interruption
Frequency
Index)
(/
),
(Ni)
(Na);
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verage
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(/
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()
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83
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84
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www.energo-pro.ge
41 www.telasi.ge
42 www.menr.gov.ge
40
85
,
. .
() ,
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Regulation) .
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(/);
-
();
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();
();
:
86
( )
, ,
.
87
/:
1. . , .
2011
2. Chris Harris, Electricity Markets, Pricing Structures and Economics, 2006, The Wiley Finance
Series
3. Gomez San Roman, Tomas. "The Economics of Regulation: Monopolistic Activities."
4. Petrov Constantin, Nunes Rosaria - Electricity Markets Regulation, 2009.
5. Rivier, Michel. "Electricity Power Transmission." Regulation of Energy Utilities Training
Course. Florence, Italy: Florence School of Regulation, 2009.
6. Steven Stoft, Power System Economics, 2002.
88
5.
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( ).
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102
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, ,
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ISO NE .
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104
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)
0,00
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)
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)
$/
(10
/<
<
100 /)
3,76 (0
10 )
$/
( > 10
/)
($/)
($/)
0,05
/:
1. Rivier, Juan. "Electricity Tariff Design", 2009.
2. Borenstein, Severin, Michael Jaske, and Arthur Rosenfeld. "Dynamic Pricing, Advanced Metering
and Demand Response in Electricity Markets", October 2002.
3. . , , 2012
4. Sahrani, Vivek and Parsons, John E. Electricity Network Tariff Architectures, a Comparison of
Four OECD Countries, July 2010.
5. CER (Commission for Energy Regulation). Electricity Tariff Structure Review: Alternative Tariff
Structures, July 2004.
107
6.
,
, .
. ,
,
,
.
/
. ,
.
6.1.
, .
,
,
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,
.
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.
1990 , ,
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108
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.
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,
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, ,
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109
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(Unbundling)
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113
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116
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, (Supply Schedule).
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120
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100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
TC
7,250
10,000
13,250
17,000
21,250
26,000
31,250
37,000
43,250
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5,000
5,000
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5,000
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5,000
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AC
73
50
45
43
43
43
45
46
49
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25
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13
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7
6
6
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25
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35
38
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43
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40
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50
55
60
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121
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122
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124
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125
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126
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5 :
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A+B+C
D+E
A+B+C+D+E
A
B+D
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,
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127
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.
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.
.
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.
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.
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.
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. ,
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.
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.
128
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,
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129
.
6.6.
6.6.
(2003 )
(2009 )
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
, 100 000
.
6.5. 1:
2001
, .
,
.
,
, .
. (EUAS),
(TEIAS),
(TEDAS).
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.
,
.
(EMRA).
130
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.
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,
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, . 2011 ,
,
.
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6.10. .
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. ,
300 . 2003 (
) . , 272 .
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131
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(75-85%), .
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,
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.
,
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,
. ,
132
6.11.
, ,
. (2011 ),
32,6%-; 13%-;
5,8%- . -
HHI = 1265,4 .
, .
, (HHI = 2378,5)
(42,6%) .
,
70%.
.
,
, 2010-2012
7 .. . 2017
,
2017
.- .
. ,
, 44. -
44
, 2011
133
()
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25
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28.5
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24.9
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30
30.3
35
31
6.12.
20
15
10
5
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
.
45:
,
;
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;
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()
2002
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,
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134
,
.
:
46
(,
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.
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, 2002 . 100%-
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:
46
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48 www.menr.gov.ge
49 www.energo-pro.ge
47
135
;
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55 - . - 2.150
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(52)
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2006 9 2006 7
. :
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www.telasi.ge
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52 www.esco.ge
51
136
1. () - ( ,
).
2. ;
3. - , ,
;
4. ,
() ,
, ,
/
()
()
;
5.
;
6.
7. ,
;
8. .
137
/:
1. Daniel S. Kirschen and Goran Strbac, Fundamentals of Power System Economics, 2004, John
Wiley & Sons, Ltd
2. Steven Stoft, Power System Economics, 2002
3. Geoffrey Rothwell, Tomas Gomez,. Electricity Economics, 2000
4. Fereidoon P. Sioshansi. Competitive Electricity Markets: Performance, Design, Implementation,
Performance, 2009, Elsevier;
5. . , . , . ,
, , 2003 .
6.
, www.menr.gov.ge
138
7.
.
,
.
.
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& Sons
2. , , , , 2011,
,
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