Production of Electric Fans in India

Month
2000-01
April
6.6
May
6.7
June
5.9
July
4.9
August
5.8
September
6.4
October
6.2
November
6.3
December
9.6
January
7.5
February
7.6
March
8.1

2001-02
6.9
7.3
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.5
7.2
7.4
7.1
7.8
8.1
8.7

2002-03
7.7
8.1
8.7
8.2
6.8
6.5
7.6
7.7
7.7
7.6
7.3
8

2003-04
9
8.5
8.7
7.2
8.1
7.7
8.5
8.2
8.3
8.2
8.3
9.3

2004-05
9.2
9.5
7.9
7
6.1
6.6
6.8
7
8.2
8.9
9.8
10.2

2005-06
9.6
9.7
8.8
9.7
6.9
7.5
7.3
7.7
8.8
9.4
10.2
11.8

2006-07
9.7
10.1
9.9
9.1
8.9
8.6
8.2
8.8
9.4
10.5
10.9
11.1

2007-08
10.1
11.3
10.8
9.7
8.8
8.4
8.1
8.6
9.7
10.3
10.6
10.9

2008-09
10.4
11.6
10.7
9.5
8.8
8.9
8.4
7.6
8.2
9.6
10.4
11.3

2009-10
9.8
10.7
10.6
10.7
10

Year
2000-01

Quarter
1

Production
19.2

2000-01

17.1

2000-01

22.1

2000-01

23.2

2001-02

21.4

2001-02

21.9

2001-02

21.7

2001-02

24.6

2002-03

24.5

2002-03

21.5

2002-03

25

2002-03

22.9

2003-04

26.2

2003-04

23

2003-04

25

2003-04

25.8

2004-05

26.6

2004-05

19.7

2004-05

22

2004-05

28.9

2005-06

28.1

2005-06

24.1

2005-06

23.8

2005-06

31.4

2006-07

29.7

2006-07

26.6

2006-07

26.4

2006-07

32.5

2007-08

32.2

2007-08

26.9

2007-08

26.4

2007-08

31.8

2008-09

32.7

2008-09

27.2

2008-09

24.2

2008-09

31.3

2009-10

31.1

2009-10

20.7

Step 5 Calculation of modified Mean

Year
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10

Q1

Q2

96.83
104.31
107.93
111.3
107.15
105.32
109.15
111.79
184.43

98.54
90.77
93.35
82.38
90.81
92.8
91.46
94.08
159.85

MAXIMUM
MINIMUM

184.43
96.83

159.85
82.38

Modified mean

108.14

93.12

Total of
Indices

402.9

Step 6

Adjust the Modified Mean

Quarter
1
2
3
4

Unadjusted Indices
108.14
93.12
92.23
109.42

Adjusting Constant
0.99
0.99
0.99
0.99
Total of Seasonal Indices
Mean of Seasonal indices

Step 1:
4 -Quarter Moving Total

Step 2 :
4 -Quarter Moving
Average

81.6

20.4

Step 3:
4 -Quartered
Centered
Moving Average

20.68
83.8

20.95

88.6

22.15

21.55
22.1
88.2

22.05

89.6

22.4

22.23
22.79
92.7

23.18

92.3

23.08

23.13
23.49
95.6

23.9

93.9

23.48

23.69
23.69
95.6

23.9
24.09

97.1

24.28
24.28

97.1

24.28
24.64

100

25
25.05

100.4

25.1
24.69

97.1

24.28
23.9

94.1

23.53
23.91

97.2

24.3

98.7

24.68

24.49
25.45
104.9

26.23

104.9

26.23

26.23
26.54

107.4

26.85

109

27.25

27.05
27.56
111.5

27.88

114.1

28.53

28.2
28.66
115.2

28.8

117.7

29.43

29.11
29.46
118

29.5
29.5

118

29.5
29.41

117.3

29.33
29.39

117.8

29.45
29.49

118.1

29.53
29.25

115.9

28.98
28.91

115.4

28.85
28.65

113.8

28.45
24.61

83.1

20.78
16.86

51.8

12.95
12.95

Q3

Q4

95.23
105.54
99.8
89.84
87.99
90.68
89.83
84.47

106.38
95.07
104.51
113.56
113.92
110.31
107.84
127.17

105.54
84.47

127.17
95.07

92.23

109.42

Seasonal Index
107.36
92.45
91.56
108.63
400
100

Step 4 :
Percentage of Actual to
Moving average Values

106.89
107.66
96.83
98.54
95.23
106.38
104.31
90.77
105.54
95.07
107.93
93.35
99.8
104.51
111.3
82.38
89.84
113.56
107.15
90.81

87.99
113.92
105.32
92.8
90.68
110.31
109.15
91.46
89.83
107.84
111.79
94.08
84.47
127.17
184.43
159.85

Year
Quarter
2000-01
1

Actual Production
19.2

Seasonal Index/100
1.07

2000-01

17.1

0.92

2000-01

22.1

0.92

2000-01

23.2

1.09

2001-02

21.4

1.07

2001-02

21.9

0.92

2001-02

21.7

0.92

2001-02

24.6

1.09

2002-03

24.5

1.07

2002-03

21.5

0.92

2002-03

25

0.92

2002-03

22.9

1.09

2003-04

26.2

1.07

2003-04

23

0.92

2003-04

25

0.92

2003-04

25.8

1.09

2004-05

26.6

1.07

2004-05

19.7

0.92

2004-05

22

0.92

2004-05

28.9

1.09

2005-06

28.1

1.07

2005-06

24.1

0.92

2005-06

23.8

0.92

2005-06

31.4

1.09

2006-07

29.7

1.07

2006-07

26.6

0.92

2006-07

26.4

0.92

2006-07

32.5

1.09

2007-08

32.2

1.07

2007-08

26.9

0.92

2007-08

26.4

0.92

2007-08

31.8

1.09

2008-09

32.7

1.07

2008-09

27.2

0.92

2008-09

24.2

0.92

2008-09

31.3

1.09

2009-10

31.1

1.07

2009-10

20.7

0.92

Deseasonlized Production
Actutal Production/Seasonal
Index
17.88
18.5
24.14
21.36
19.93
23.69
23.7
22.65
22.82
23.26
27.3
21.08
24.4
24.88
27.3
23.75
24.78
21.31
24.03
26.6
26.17
26.07

25.99
28.91
27.66
28.77
28.83
29.92
29.99
29.1
28.83
29.27
30.46
29.42
26.43
28.81
28.97
22.39

Year
2000-01

Quarter
1

Deseasonlized
Production (Y)
17.88

2000-01

18.5

2000-01

24.14

2000-01

21.36

2001-02

19.93

2001-02

23.69

2001-02

23.7

2001-02

22.65

2002-03

22.82

2002-03

23.26

2002-03

27.3

2002-03

21.08

2003-04

24.4

2003-04

24.88

2003-04

27.3

2003-04

23.75

2004-05

24.78

2004-05

21.31

2004-05

24.03

2004-05

26.6

2005-06

26.17

2005-06

26.07

2005-06

25.99

2005-06

28.91

2006-07

27.66

2006-07

28.77

2006-07

28.83

2006-07

29.92

2007-08

29.99

2007-08

29.1

2007-08

28.83

2007-08

29.27

2008-09

30.46

2008-09

29.42

2008-09

26.43

2008-09

28.81

2009-10

28.97

2009-10

22.39

Column1

Y
Err:508

Y'
Err:508

Using Least -Square Method -Linear

a)

Slope of Trend Line

Formulae
b=xY/x2

b)

Intercept

Formulae
a=Y'

c)

Linear Equation

Formulae
Y^=a+bx

d)

Projections

Year

2009-10
2009-10
2010-11
2010-11
2010-11
2010-11
2011-12
2011-12
2011-12
2011-12

Using Least - Squre

Method
-Non Linear

a)

Formulae

Y=an+cx2
x2Y=ax2+cx4
b=xY/x2

b)

Values

a
24.47

c)

Equation

Formulae
Y^=a+bx+cx2

d)

Projections

Year
2009-10
2009-10
2010-11
2010-11
2010-11
2010-11
2011-12
2011-12
2011-12
2011-12

Translating or Coding
the
Time Variable ,x=X-X'
-17.5

x
-37

xY
-661.71

x2
1369

x4
x2Y
1874161 24483.33

-16.5

-35

-647.41

1225

1500625 22659.29

-15.5

-33

-796.49

1089

1185921 26284.01

-14.5

-31

-662.05

961

923521

20523.66

-13.5

-29

-578.07

841

707281

16763.92

-12.5

-27

-639.62

729

531441

17269.74

-11.5

-25

-592.48

625

390625

14811.91

-10.5

-23

-520.84

529

279841

11979.38

-9.5

-21

-479.24

441

194481

10063.99

-8.5

-19

-441.88

361

130321

8395.75

-7.5

-17

-464.15

289

83521

7890.59

-6.5

-15

-316.21

225

50625

4743.09

-5.5

-13

-317.26

169

28561

4124.33

-4.5

-11

-273.67

121

14641

3010.42

-3.5

-9

-245.73

81

6561

2211.55

-2.5

-7

-166.25

49

2401

1163.75

-1.5

-5

-123.88

25

625

619.42

-0.5

-3

-63.93

81

191.79

-1

-24.03

24.03

26.6

26.6

0.5

78.52

81

235.57

1.5

130.35

25

625

651.74

2.5

181.95

49

2401

1273.63

3.5

260.15

81

6561

2341.31

4.5

11

304.31

121

14641

3347.4

5.5

13

374.06

169

28561

4862.76

6.5

15

432.48

225

50625

6487.21

7.5

17

508.6

289

83521

8646.19

8.5

19

569.87

361

130321

10827.52

9.5

21

611.06

441

194481

12832.31

10.5

23

663.14

529

279841

15252.15

11.5

25

731.83

625

390625

18295.76

12.5

27

822.39

729

531441

22204.5

13.5

29

853.26

841

707281

24744.52

14.5

31

819.31

961

923521

25398.62

15.5

33

950.83

1089

1185921

31377.3

16.5

35

1013.9

1225

1500625 35486.42

17.5

37

828.49

1369

1874161 30654.05

Column2

Column3

xY
Err:508

x2
Err:509

Y^

Value
Err:509
Value
Err:508
Value
25.509+.1323x
Quarter

x4
Err:509

x2y
Err:508

3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

18.5
19.5
20.5
21.5
22.5
23.5
24.5
25.5
26.5
27.5

b
Err:509

c
0

27.96
28.09
28.22
28.35
28.49
28.62
28.75
28.88
29.01
29.15

Value
24.467+.1323x+..002548x2
Quarter
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

x
18.5
19.5
20.5
21.5
22.5
23.5
24.5
25.5
26.5
27.5

Y^
27.79
28.02
28.25
28.49
28.73
28.98
29.24
29.5
29.76
30.03

1)

Linear

Year
2000-01

Quarter
1

Deseasonlised Production, Y
17.88

x
-37

2000-01

18.5

-35

2000-01

24.14

-33

2000-01

21.36

-31

2001-02

19.93

-29

2001-02

23.69

-27

2001-02

23.7

-25

2001-02

22.65

-23

2002-03

22.82

-21

2002-03

23.26

-19

2002-03

27.3

-17

2002-03

21.08

-15

2003-04

24.4

-13

2003-04

24.88

-11

2003-04

27.3

-9

2003-04

23.75

-7

2004-05

24.78

-5

2004-05

21.31

-3

2004-05

24.03

-1

2004-05

26.6

2005-06

26.17

2005-06

26.07

2005-06

25.99

2005-06

28.91

2006-07

27.66

11

2006-07

28.77

13

2006-07

28.83

15

2006-07

29.92

17

2007-08

29.99

19

2007-08

29.1

21

2007-08

28.83

23

2007-08

29.27

25

2008-09

30.46

27

2008-09

29.42

29

2008-09

26.43

31

2008-09

28.81

33

2009-10

28.97

35

2009-10

22.39

37

(Y-Y^)/n

Err:508

Mean Absolute Deviation

1)

Non -Linear

Year
2000-01

Quarter
1

Deseasonlised Production, Y
17.88

x
-37

2000-01

18.5

-35

2000-01

24.14

-33

2000-01

21.36

-31

2001-02

19.93

-29

2001-02

23.69

-27

2001-02

23.7

-25

2001-02

22.65

-23

2002-03

22.82

-21

2002-03

23.26

-19

2002-03

27.3

-17

2002-03

21.08

-15

2003-04

24.4

-13

2003-04

24.88

-11

2003-04

27.3

-9

2003-04

23.75

-7

2004-05

24.78

-5

2004-05

21.31

-3

2004-05

24.03

-1

2004-05

26.6

2005-06

26.17

2005-06

26.07

2005-06

25.99

2005-06

28.91

2006-07

27.66

11

2006-07

28.77

13

2006-07

28.83

15

2006-07

29.92

17

2007-08

29.99

19

2007-08

29.1

21

2007-08

28.83

23

2007-08

29.27

25

2008-09

30.46

27

2008-09

29.42

29

2008-09

26.43

31

2008-09

28.81

33

2009-10

28.97

35

2009-10

22.39

37

(Y-Y^)/n

Err:508

Mean Absolute Deviation

Y^
20.61

Y-Y^
-2.73

20.88

-2.38

21.14

2.99

21.41

-0.05

21.67

-1.74

21.94

1.75

22.2

1.5

22.47

0.18

22.73

0.09

23

0.26

23.26

4.04

23.52

-2.44

23.79

0.62

24.05

0.83

24.32

2.98

24.58

-0.83

24.85

-0.07

25.11

-3.8

25.38

-1.35

25.64

0.96

25.91

0.27

26.17

-0.1

26.44

-0.44

26.7

2.21

26.96

0.7

27.23

1.54

27.49

1.34

27.76

2.16

28.02

1.97

28.29

0.81

28.55

0.28

28.82

0.46

29.08

1.38

29.35

0.08

29.61

-3.18

29.87

-1.06

30.14

-1.17

30.4

-8.01

Y^
23.06

Y-Y^
-5.18

22.96

-4.46

22.88

1.26

22.81

-1.46

22.77

-2.84

22.75

0.94

22.75

0.95

22.77

-0.13

22.81

0.01

22.87

0.38

22.95

4.35

23.06

-1.98

23.18

1.23

23.32

1.56

23.48

3.82

23.67

0.08

23.87

0.91

24.09

-2.78

24.34

-0.31

24.6

24.89

1.29

25.19

0.88

25.52

0.47

25.86

3.04

26.23

1.43

26.62

2.16

27.02

1.81

27.45

2.47

27.9

2.09

28.37

0.73

28.86

-0.03

29.37

-0.09

29.9

0.56

30.45

-1.02

31.02

-4.59

31.61

-2.79

32.22

-3.25

32.85

-10.46

Year
2000-01

Quarter
1

Deseasonalised
Production
Y
17.88

2000-01

18.5

-35

2000-01

24.14

-33

2000-01

21.36

-31

2001-02

19.93

-29

2001-02

23.69

-27

2001-02

23.7

-25

2001-02

22.65

-23

2002-03

22.82

-21

2002-03

23.26

-19

2002-03

27.3

-17

2002-03

21.08

-15

2003-04

24.4

-13

2003-04

24.88

-11

2003-04

27.3

-9

2003-04

23.75

-7

2004-05

24.78

-5

2004-05

21.31

-3

2004-05

24.03

-1

2004-05

26.6

2005-06

26.17

2005-06

26.07

x
-37

2005-06

25.99

2005-06

28.91

2006-07

27.66

11

2006-07

28.77

13

2006-07

28.83

15

2006-07

29.92

17

2007-08

29.99

19

2007-08

29.1

21

2007-08

28.83

23

2007-08

29.27

25

2008-09

30.46

27

2008-09

29.42

29

2008-09

26.43

31

2008-09

28.81

33

2009-10

28.97

35

2009-10

22.39

37

Y^=a+bx
20.61

Percentage
of Trend(y/Y^)*100
86.76

Relative Cyclical Residual

(Y-Y^)*100/Y^
-13.24

20.88

88.6

-11.4

21.14

114.16

14.16

21.41

99.76

-0.24

21.67

91.98

-8.02

21.94

107.99

7.99

22.2

106.75

6.75

22.47

100.8

0.8

22.73

100.4

0.4

23

101.14

1.14

23.26

117.38

17.38

23.52

89.61

-10.39

23.79

102.59

2.59

24.05

103.43

3.43

24.32

112.27

12.27

24.58

96.61

-3.39

24.85

99.72

-0.28

25.11

84.86

-15.14

25.38

94.68

-5.32

25.64

103.75

3.75

25.91

101.04

1.04

26.17

99.61

-0.39

26.44

98.33

-1.67

26.7

108.26

8.26

26.96

102.6

2.6

27.23

105.67

5.67

27.49

104.87

4.87

27.76

107.78

7.78

28.02

107.03

7.03

28.29

102.87

2.87

28.55

100.98

0.98

28.82

101.58

1.58

29.08

104.74

4.74

29.35

100.26

0.26

29.61

89.26

-10.74

29.87

96.45

-3.55

30.14

96.11

-3.89

30.4

73.65

-26.35