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Seasonal Forecasting For International Flights
Seasonal Forecasting For International Flights
Seasonal Forecasting for International Flights Date for international flights segregated into 4 seasons:
Seasons
Quarter 1
Quarter 2
Quarter 3
Step 1: Computation of average historical sales for each season Formula used: Total sales of each season/Number of quarters
Step 2: Computation of average historical sales for overall seasons Formula used: Total of seasonal average/Number of averages (4) STEP 2 Average for over all seasons 9285
Step 3: Calculation of seasonal index Formula used: Average historical sales per season/Average of overall seasons
Low-sales Medium 1
0.7427 0.9032
Step 5: Seasonal forecast values for next year Formula used: 37244/4 * seasonal index STEP 5 Seasonal Forecast values for next year Low-sales Medium 1 High-sales Medium 2 6915.3103 8410.1511 12077.7258 9840.8128
Conclusion: Sales forecast values for the next year will be expected to fluctuate from approx. $6915 to $12077.
Trend projection was used for regional flights, since the demand is increasing, as shown in the graph below:
The equation is as follows: y = a + bx, where b = [Sigma xy n(average of x values)(average of y values)]/ [sigma x2 n (average of x values)2] a = Average of y values b (average of x values)
In the case of regional flights, b = 259.72 and a = 6114.32 Thus the linear equation for regional flights is y = 6114.32 + 259.72x Forecast values for next year (Year 4) [table] Period 13: 9490.42 Period 14: 9750.12 Period 15: 10009.82 Period 16: 10269.52 Analysis and conclusion